Synovate Polls On ICC Ruling

[adongo23456]

I did not know that some "Octopus" had come out with Uhuruto tailor made polls to console the indicted chaps. This is their Synovate and it looks bad for the suspects. Kenyans seem to have faith in the ICC and even the regions allegedly owned by some of the key suspects are pretty much OK with the ICC.

It is going to be a tough ride to try to ignore the Hague cases. They are real.

www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2012/02/synovate-survey-contradicts-rival-pollster-on-icc/

[justfacts]

You can fool some people sometime (with prayer rallies) but you cant fool all the people all the time--Robert Nester Marley

[job]

Feb 6, 2012 17:27:38 GMT 3 adongo23456 said:

I did not know that some "Octopus" had come out with Uhuruto tailor made polls to console the indicted chaps. This is their Synovate and it looks bad for the suspects. Kenyans seem to have faith in the ICC and even the regions allegedly owned by some of the key suspects are pretty much OK with the ICC.

It is going to be a tough ride to try to ignore the Hague cases. They are real.

www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2012/02/synovate-survey-contradicts-rival-pollster-on-icc/

Octopus had better crawl back into their inconsequential cave. The good thing is - in this business, pollsters literally rely on credibility. Now it's a forgone conclusion Octopus is a terrible joke.


Secondly, I tried Juxtaposing the weekend rally at Tononoka with the reality that people at the Coast lead the nation in applauding ICC's decision to confirm charges against Uhuru and Ruto. I also noticed Uhuru Kenyatta's ( & Ruto's) conspicuous thank-you accolades to their "hard-working" staff who made the rallies possible. They themselves must have been surprised at the turn-out. Thanking their hard-working staff who made the rather expensive rent-a-crowd rally successful was thus in order. These fellas must have used tonnes of cash to rent the crowds...to create a false aura of popularity hapo pwani.


Well, Synovate (a pollster known to side with PNU) reports very contradictory positions, obviously closer to reality. Wana Pwani are the happiest lot in the entire country, over ICC's confirmation of charges on these fellas[/u]. Besides, they are firmly in support of the man who has become the main topic of these hate rallies.


Thirdly, Synovate's game of attrition that keeps pushing the perception that Raila Odinga's poll numbers are in continuous decline has been noted...unlike other pollsters who show momentary up-and-down surges and declines... It is clear that Synovate's overall numbers fit in a rather statistically unrealistic linear pattern (with a negative slope/gradient)....Other pollsters show a more realistic non-linear pattern...whereby Raila's numbers occasionally oscillate within the 30s and 40s....jumping upwards during certain specific periods (eg immediately after the new Katiba passed at referendum; or when he forestalled the initial fake Judicial appointments)...and downwards during the period of reporting the KKV scandal at the PM's office & the immediate period after Miguna's suspension)....This aberration makes Synovate's trendlines simply unreliable.


Fourthly, is media overdrive to popularize, create-sympathy and sell the ICC accused in purely presidential campaign terms. The narrative has been deftly shifted by media that these accused own; from a judicial trial process (of serious crimes) into a presidential contest debate. In that storyline, victims, IDPs, restitution, et. al. have dissapeared. This fits the general lines of the Jeff Koinange Bench & Two Sides of the Coin narratives at Kenyatta's K-24 TV; or the soundbites pouring from Kenyatta's Kameme Radiowaves; or KASS FM (where Ruto is now a shareholder).


As the accused work hard to dominate media output with presidential-campaign showbizz rather than ICC-judicial matters, they should not ignore the simmering trajectory of ethnic tensions this trend invites. People don't sing Hosana at these so called prayer rallies...judging from Sonko, Waititu or Kambi's inciteful remarks. The question is, along the same line of - don't be Vague go to Hague - will the accused take responsibility for losing their own freedom, courtesy of ICC arrest warrants,..now that their own media are beaming these incitements to the whole world?

[Ouali]

Brothers, good you all have noted the intentional error associated with "octo*" polls. They have lost it and will never be taken seriously whatever they do in future. The composition and creation of the company is in itself questionable. However I would like to disagree with those who continue condeming Synovate now called IPSOS. this is the third largest opinion poll worldwide and I think they are awake to the fact that polls are about intergrity. I have a feeling the polls are ok and though do not expect everyone to agree with the same since polls are just that. But criticizing the same polls just because they show your preffered candidate on the negative is not being objective. Remember in all polls there is an error magin that could go up to 2 in some cases. Consequently one candidate droping or going up by 1 or 2 points does not really call for such "elaborate" and subjective critique.