Demystifying Steadman's April Fool Prank

[Onyango Oloo]

demokrasia-kenya.blogspot.com/2007/04/demystifying-steadmans-april-fool-prank.html

[adongo12345]

OO

I am not a statistician, if such a thing exists, but a few things I would to ask people like you who study this kind of stuff.

1. In Canada when they do polls for elections, the first thing the pollsters do is access the voters registry which is automated and available to them. Now in Kenya before Waititu spins these numbers do they have access to the voters registry? Is it automated? Can the public access the same?

2. The second thing pollsters need are contacts of the people in the list they have chosen. In Canada it is easy because the voters registry gives you the addresses and phone numbers of all registered voters. The pollsters after doing their scientific sampling can contact almost all the people they picked and the issue for them is whether those individuals would give them any time at all to answer their questions. Now in Kenya where the registry has no address and phone number, how does Waititu contact the voters we assume they have selected from the voters registry?

If the two aspects of polling, accessing a legit registry and getting contact with chosen voters do not take place then obviously we are talking about quacks who deserve no attention.

I know it is a different story if I wanted to do a poll on who prefers coca cola to fanta. I would need no registry. All I need are people.

Can someone help us understand how Steadman do electoral polls so we can judge then objectively.

Otherwise I agree with OO that the whole agenda here is political. Interestingly it plays very well for us. Right now based on these very "objective and scientific" polls, Kibaki and his people need not complain about the 50% plus majority to clinch the presidency. If anything it Raila and the other crew who ought to worry.

Let's wait and see what the new twist will be.

Adongo

[roughrider]

I could say one or two things about steadman and opinion polling in Kenya and Tom Wolf...

But let me, for the moment, congratulate you on your marriage... i read somewhere a reference you made about 'your spouse'... my sincere congrats... aliyepata jiko has found a good thing.

[roughrider]

Maybe this is worth reprinting here; nice choice of words...

In sharp contrast to the fake braggadocio permeating Steadman’s rosy poll projections, Team Kibaki actually lies in near shambles at the moment even as the septuagenarian and octogenarian tribal comprador tycoons cocoon themselves in a self-delusionary bubble of a decades-long Mt. Kenya Reich lording over Kenyans from here to eternity.

[adongo12345]

Poor Waititu, now the narc K hardliners are going to say Raila paid him to give kibaki 51% to kill the resistance to that requirement.