Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Slated for PM Slot

[Onyango Oloo]

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From: "mrbob_k" <mrbob_k@...>
Date: Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:23 am
Subject: Re: Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Headed for PM's Job

Wuod Gem:

Tuju is not coming back based on the prevailing mood.

Odingaism is an institution and to fight it you need another institution. Tuju must build another institution to fight one institution (ODINGAISM). Tuju is not an institution.

The whole country has turned Orange. Uhuru is set to take significant Orange votes out of Central. Embu is set to remain bananas. Meru is split and tilted toward Orange. Conventional wisdom says the only way YES can win is through rigging.

Finally, the conventional wisdom say MKM have been pleading to Kibaki not repeat the mistake Kenyatta made and left them out of power for along time during Moi's reign. They vow not to lose power again and are packing the government and military with loyalists. This scenario is the main driving force in making Orange more popular in the country.

Nyachae is in deep trouble in Gusii area. The same applies to Uncle Moody and Kombo. In a strange twist of things Moi is now more popular than Kibaki. Moi seems like a prophet nowadays. The guy is an astute politician.

Bob-K

[roughrider]

About the Pick Pockets Party or Pata Potea Party, Luos remain confounded. Would Simeon Nyachae and George Saitoti please advise: What happens when I marry a Kikuyu or a Kisii? will my children be allowed to be members of this PPP that is meant for wajaluo?

GEMA, sorry MEGA, which is the model we are using is not very clear on this.

[kamalet]

Obviously Miguna's post was intended for it value in humour and certainly nothing serious! I do not think Tuju is looking for the PMs or the VP's post, and this campaign about Tuju is not different to the rumour about him sleeping with Mrs Raila or having HIV - there are people who must feel threatened by this man!!

A friend suggested to Tuju that he could relocate to the soon to be created Karen constituency in Nairobi, but Tuju is very convinced that he can still be elected in Rarieda purely on his record, and in any case transferring to Nairobi only plays into the hands of those who will accuse him of chickening out!

I am sure time will tell whether people can shut their eyes to what Tuju 'has done for them' and follow a political dream that takes them no where!

[job]

Miguna,

Regarding Tuju's rumoured elevation;
-------------------------------------------------
While not ruling out anything, I've studied both scenario's whispered by your friend and I'm still not connecting many dots.

I am assuming Kibaki's ethnic-arithmetic strategists give this thing a much bigger look than that. If your friend's input is co-opted in what he may have heard, then his assertions may indicate some over-enthusiastic anticipation about Tuju's influence on national politics.

Tuju's PPP came silently with the media only trying to sensationalize it, but Kenyans have just about seen it pass like clouds. We may just hear intermittently about it from time to time but it will certainly not dominate news.

I can safely assume that Kibaki is definitely giving this tricky succession subject, a bird's eye view; reflecting on a lot more than just what your friend reported.

After the late Wamalwa's demise, his replacement by LDP's Moody Awori (an elderly luhya), despite relentless pressure from enthusiastic, younger and loyal Ford-K prospects such as Kombo and Kituyi,.. is an indication of how Kibaki treats this succession issue with utmost caution.

Some people suggest that Kibaki's failure to craft a PM position for Raila, after the 2002 elections, using possible avenues within the current Constitution, were part of his "play safe" succession plan.

Surrounded with several likely successors besides Awori; like Ngilu, Raila, Kalonzo, Kombo, Saitoti, Kituyi, Tuju, et al, he opted for the much older, gentler Awori, whose real ambition for the Presidency was not to be taken very seriously considering his age.

This could have been done to avoid inter-personal conflicts, bitter rivalry and jealous schemes between the respective players above, that could have destabilized his following & support for a second bid.

It is much obvious from as early as 2003 that some in that lot, like Kituyi, Saitoti and Tuju had "prior" knowledge and acceptance, that Kibaki was going to run a second term in 2007. Kituyi 's statement "State House is occupied by Kibaki until 2012" still rings loud.

On the other hand, Ngilu, Raila, Kombo and Kalonzo were either surprised at Kibaki's intended second term run, or rather, they deliberately chose to "act" shocked, at that possibility. From Ford-K Hqs., Wamalwa & later Kombo publicly proclaimed their yet to be launched, "grand march to State House in 2007".

Ngilu conveniently repeated numerous times that Kibaki was a one term President. The same statement was an "assurance" J.J Kamotho of LDP let known to Kenyans.

Scenario 1.
--------------
If Kibaki fires Awori to appoint Tuju his VP, he will have gambled big, because he looses a huge constituency in dissapointed Luhyas and other more sympathetic Kenyans who generally like Awori.
Tuju's appointment will however not be a guarantee to having bagged the Luo vote, especially if Agwambo is fired. If Raila goes, he leaves with his entire constituency, who will be even more fanatical in their support of him, that is not in doubt at all.

Scenario 2
--------------
If Tuju is appointed non-exec PM, and Kituyi made VP, Kibaki's only realistic net gain will be consolidation of the Bukusu vote. There will still be disgruntled Busia people who are leaning pro LDP/KANU anyway, and remember, Vihiga (Maragoli), Bunyore and Mumias tends to lean pro LDP.
From the Luo, Kibaki can rest assured he will gain ONLY Tuju's friends (a handful votes) whom he will co-opt in the government, that's pretty much it.

Other factors,
-----------------

Kibaki is also looking at many other factors since an election Victory is not just about the arithmetics of the said ethnic groups above but;

Outcome of the referendum as you suggested.

Uhuru's influence on the Kikuyu vote.

Kalonzo Musyoka's influence on the Kamba vote especially if he is running for presidency on LDP which I strongly believe will strategically happen.

KANU's influence in Rift Valley (huge Kalenjin & Maasai vote), and if its dalliance with LDP
survives through 2007.

Voters from the rest of the nation; Coast, Nairobi, Eastern, NEP, Nyanza, RV, Western, Central.

and many more,... only time will tell, but I think Kibaki the conservative, will retain his VP for the moment.

nimesema.

Job.

[miguna]

Job,

How is New York?
I concur, with the usual doubts, since my friend sound very convinced...but then again, it was only a whisper.

[job]

Miguna,

It's actually Washington DC, we are quite OK here. As for the whisper, I agree, lets give it time since anything may be possible.

Job.

[Onyango Oloo]

From: Sang <sang2000@...>
Date: Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:21 am
Subject: Re: Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Headed for PM's Job
--- In [e-mail], "mrbob_k" <mrbob_k@y...> wrote:
> The whole country has turned Orange. Uhuru is set to take a significant Orange votes out of Central.

Bob,

What we are seeing is the true Kenyan "real-politik" similar to the politics that played itself out in the 60's. (Read The Construction and Destruction of the Kenyatta State- By DAVID W. THROUP at groups.yahoo.com/group/kenyaonline/files/)

On one hand is the fear by other ethnic groups of the Kikuyu political hegemony . On the other, is the Kikuyu community's opposition to the idea of a Luo - least of all - Raila being president, either by universal suffrage or through the "backdoor" of the prime minister's office. This has to be prevented at all costs, hence the modification of the executive section of the Bomas draft. The Oranges and Bananas are the new symbols of the 21 century that represent the hopes, aspirations, and fears of these groups.

Once again, as in the 60's, the main antagonists are the Kikuyu and the Luo - the two most powerful groups in the country. The rest are a supporting cast - but a powerful cast, nonetheless. It is the Third Force. Lucky for the Luo, this cast is more or less behind it - The Kalenjin, the Kamba, the Coastal region, the North Eastern, parts of Eastern, Rift Valley, and Western. Clearly, the odds are stacked against the Kikuyu in this power game.

Uhuru Kenyatta sees it differently, albeit, fatally. Either, he has not seen, or he is ignoring the mood in Kikuyuland. You simply cannot go against the interests of the community. You do that, and you are history. Barring any political re-allignemts before 2007, he will not see the inside of parliament.

It is exactly the same dilemma Tuju is facing. The Luo are no different from the Kikuyu - or from any other ethnic group for that matter. Tuju has decided to go against the interests of the Luo community. This automatically sends him to political Siberia, to quote some KT journalist. He will not see the doors of parliament, come 2007. I think he is personalising the realities of the Kenyan real-politik. Odingaism is not about Raila the man, but about the force that holds the interests of the Luo together. It is akin to swimming against a tsunami.

Moi is popular with the masses (more so now), because he is a hard-headed political realist. He is still the leader of the Third Force. When he warned Kenyans against the NARC deception, no one believed him, and thus his famous remark: "let them cook in their own fat". What they see is exactly what he warned them against.

As for FORD-K, once again, the Luhya leaders are as divided and undecided as they were in 1963. What we see today in the Luhya community is exactly what ailed them in the 60's. Says Throup: "By refusing to fit neatly into either the, KANU or KADU coalitions and remaining loyal to their locally focused ethnic subnationalism, the Luhya were isolated from the mainstream of Kenyan politics and despite Muliro's attempts to drag them into the contest for central resources, their domestic political rivalries undermined their potential collective strength as Kenya's third largest ethnic group. Thus, as the contest to inherit the colonial state gathered momentum, Muliro had to fight with one arm tied behind his back against a Kalenjin community united behind Moi".

It is simply flabergasting to hear that the Luhya leaders are meeting today - years after the constitution making started - to "chart the way forward".

The way I see it, for the Luo and their allies, the whole issue is about preventing the Kikuyu from solidifying their hold on power. Especially when it is dawning on them that they had no intention of sharing it all along. For the Kikuyu, the chance that they got the presidency through NARC's "Kibaki Tosha" euphoria was a streak of luck never to be let slip again. Most of all, not to a Luo. This is what it is all about.

All the talk about "I don't care what tribe the president is from, is hot air". Anyone bandying this idiocy, is, to quote General Honore, stuck on stupid. Kenya's brand of politics is ethnic based.

Sang.
====

[Onyango Oloo]

From: nyabuto mangerere <Mangerere1@...>
Date: Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:02 pm
Subject: Re: [africa-oped] Re: Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Headed for PM's Job

Sang,

Are saying that ethnicity is it ? Are you saying that Moi endorsing Uhuru Kenyatta for 2002 presidency was ethnic ? Now that Raila is endorsing Uhuru for 2007, is he realistic or was he honest when he said hata Kibaki anatosha and atoshi sasa hoping to get remarried to Moi's Uhuru that he strongly cursed last time ? The same way Raila is allowed to express his democratic changes is the same way Tuju should be allowed to. Raila might switch any minute and play no.7 in his normal soccer game and Kenyans have learned to pass the ball whenever they need his help in the 11th hour. Later.

Nyabuto

[Onyango Oloo]

From: "sang2000" <sang2000@...>
Date: Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:57 pm
Subject: Re: Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Headed for PM's Job

--- In [e-mail], nyabuto mangerere
<Mangerere1@y...> wrote:
> Sang, Are saying that ethnicity is it ?

That's what I am saying. Not to be confused with what I think it ought to be.

Sang.
====

[Onyango Oloo]

OO

Interesting piece.

But will the strategy work? the MKM very early on in the Kibaki regime looked for alternative powerbrokers in the Luo Nyanza region - wakina Kanindo, dalmas oteino etc. I need not tell you where that went

Tuju granted is in the cabinet and has a leg up in terms of exposure, political prestige and perhaps even financing. But like the Musailia experiment, this may turn out to be a red hering.

I secretly wish Kibaki would go ahead and do it (elevate Tuju). I would pay big bucks to see this experiment crash
fall and burn and consume Kibaki's political stature in the ensuing conflagration. When will these fellas learn that Raila is not the problem, and that Raila's fanatical support is inherently planted in his admirers, that folks can see through these political dot.com start ups? when will they learn that we the people yearn for a legitimate constitution, proper governance and not some political chicanery?

One thing is certain. MKM has no long term political strategist and they keep shooting themselves in the foot. Gaitho's article on Kiraitu in yesterdays Daily nation paper illustrates this point. The easiest way to woo kenyans would be to deliver on the pre election promises. If only Kibaki has delivered on some of these he wouldnt be facing the rebellion, widepread anger and out right hatred he and his ilk now encounter.

politicalmaniac

[Onyango Oloo]

From: "nyakwarotiya" <nyakwarotiya@...>
Date: Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:12 am
Subject: Re: Miguna's Bombshell: Tuju Headed for PM's Job/nd bob-k

< Tuju is not coming back based on prevailing mood. Odingaism is an institution and to fight it you need another institution.>


nd bob,

taking nd miguna's observation at face value, do you think the realization that mr tuju is poised to ascend to a higher political office might have informed the decision for the early formation of the orange democratic movement (odm)?, to ease concerns among the NO supporters that they might get outwitted in this ever fascinating drama of pursuit for macheavellian goal of power and material wealth?

by forming the odm this early, are the odm`s leading lights not exposing their soft underbellies for numerous body blow before the next polls?

you were recorded as saying that the year 2005 might see to an early election in kenya. do you still worship at the altar of this hypothesis?

by writing mr tuju`s political obituary so early in the day, don't you think you are runing a very high risk of damaging your punditocracy. in politics, a week can be a very long time and many events can occur.

when former president moi forced nominated mp mark too to resign from his seat, how many could tell that the seat would be dished out to uhuru kenyatta, and later on named a minister for local govt and thereafter mr moi`s preferred presidential candidate?

shortly after the consumation of kanu-ndp marriage, how many people could foretell that uhuru kenyatta would be reduced to a leader of official opposition in parliament. how many could say that musalia mudavadi would not make it to parliament leave alone being a cabinet
minister?

some four years ago, how many would say with a degree of certainity that moody awori-a political underweight would be a vice president in mwai kibaki's govt, with george saitoti as an education minister?

finally, i watched president on late night news yester evening while launching the nepad e-school initiative in isiolo( one of narc's rare achievements), (one of things i normally do while watching him is to check on his state of health and his body language) he came out as a man not in charge of things. for example, while speaking on the constitution bill, he openly called the NO opponents wapumbavu. and, while informing his audience to read the 4,000 copies of the constitution bill that had been brought to them, he said in kiswahili " mhakikishe mmenunua hivyo vitabu." then on realizing the copies were free, he backtracked. i am attempting to show that mr kibaki is not in his best form. do you think he will offer himself as a candidate in 2007?

be blessed.

n`otiya

[Onyango Oloo]

Interesting option.

Personally I think it is too early in the piece for Tuju in Kibaki's planning.

One has to assume that Kibaki is working on the presumption that Kenya is going to be a Banana republic.

If this turns out to be the case, then it is clear that Orangemen will be out of the cabinet. They may of course be fired, but I think they equally may move on their own to an Orange party of sorts - whichever happens, I don't think anywone is seriously considering the possibility that Odinga and Kibaki are going to be running mates on a NARC ticket in 2007.

This means that 2007 is the new NARC with Kibaki at the top versus what we might call the Orange party with Kenyatta, Odinga and Musyoka in some sort of configuration (if they don't split) in 2007.

Given this scenario, when would be the optimum time for Kibaki to roll out 'his son' Tuju as the secret card? The options are December 12th 2005 in a post-referendum cabinet reshuffle, October 2007 as a running mate in the General Election or as a useful card for 2007-2012 when there will inevitably be a succession battle within NARC.

Of these three options, my guess is that Tuju's utility will be in the 2007-2012 succession battle, since this will not only be a battle for succession within Kibaki's camp, but also be an election campaign which Kibaki's side will want to win although Kibaki will not be the Presidential candidate. Tuju is the ideal running mate for a Kibaki acolyte's Presidential campaign in 2012.

Therefore Tuju will no doubt rise through the ranks over the next seven years as a future counterweight to Odinga.

Seven years are necessary for this counterweight strategy to come to fruition: Realise that Odinga has 2005 referendum, 2007 General Election and 2012 General Election fights in him yet.

Any Kibaki strategy to contain Odinga has to be on that timescale, and not just within the parochial vision of this referendum.