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Post by mank on Feb 12, 2013 12:02:45 GMT 3
Omwenga,
Its not an excitement especially on my side, its the reality. I know CORD has its people punching their numbers. The implication is; For an average GEMA voter, the message Ngunyi is putting across is that the election is theirs to lose. And to CORD; you gotta work hard! You nailed it there. the message is - get out and vote as a block for our guy, and it doesnt matter what anyone else thinks or does.
To me, this is a very dangerous message, especially given the events of the last election, when some people thought that they had the right to decide who leads Kenyans irrespective of the outcome of the elections. And guess who made the "prediction" that that would happen?
my only hope is that we as Kenyans have learnt from the experince. otherwise I fear for and even more painful one ahead!Omwenga, Its not an excitement especially on my side, its the reality. I know CORD has its people punching their numbers. The implication is; For an average GEMA voter, the message Ngunyi is putting across is that the election is theirs to lose. And to CORD; you gotta work hard! You nailed it there. the message is - get out and vote as a block for our guy, and it doesnt matter what anyone else thinks or does.
To me, this is a very dangerous message, especially given the events of the last election, when some people thought that they had the right to decide who leads Kenyans irrespective of the outcome of the elections. And guess who made the "prediction" that that would happen?
my only hope is that we as Kenyans have learnt from the experince. otherwise I fear for and even more painful one ahead!It is not voting in blocks that caused the violence last time. It was refusal to concede on the part of the losing candidate. Americans will tell you that the moment when the losing candidate takes the mic, congratulates the winner and calls upon supporters to now rally behind the president, is the moment when the nation takes in a healthy breath of "mission accomplished". Till that moment, from when votes are cast, things are tense and potentially a lot more volatile than anything we saw in 2007/8, or anything we can imagine. So I think the vital message is, no matter what candidates and their supporters decide is the winning strategy (and they have lots of freedom in choosing, including maximizing exposure in tribes they consider more friendly), when the votes are cast the loser must take charge of his/her supporters, either in conceding defeat, or in the event of discontent, managing their emotions with a clear message of where any contest would be ended, and clearly not in the streets.
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Post by afrigun on Feb 12, 2013 13:00:00 GMT 3
Mank
Voting in a block is not inherently bad.
My problem with Ngunyi is that he seems to send the message - not too subliminally even, that one or two ethnic groups can and will hold the rest of the nation hostage, no matter what.
Or conversely, that the rest of the nation should and must of necessity work against the two ethnic groups.
See the danger in that?
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Post by afrigun on Feb 12, 2013 13:15:07 GMT 3
It is not voting in blocks that caused the violence last time. It was refusal to concede on the part of the losing candidate. Remember that Ngunyi had, many months to the 2007 elections, predicted that Kibaki and PNU would never concede defeat or allow himself to be beaten in a fair election. I recall he used to start or end his columns with "my advise to Kibaki" or "my advise to Raila" etc. Now, did Kibaki heed his advise and prediction? Did ODM react the way they did because, in the back of their minds (even unconsciuosly) they had internalised this "prediction"? I sincerely think that this guy is playing a very dangerous game with these "analyses" and predictions.
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Post by kamalet on Feb 12, 2013 13:19:37 GMT 3
Mank Voting in a block is not inherently bad. My problem with Ngunyi is that he seems to send the message - not too subliminally even, that one or two ethnic groups can and will hold the rest of the nation hostage, no matter what. Or conversely, that the rest of the nation should and must of necessity work against the two ethnic groups. See the danger in that? Afrigun Please count your lucky stars that it is only two ethnic blocks getting together rather than three!!! There is little you can do about block voting unless you dismember the large tribal groups into smaller units to give others a chance of ever ruling us! There is hope however that future county blocks may diminish tribe as a factor in voting!
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Post by mank on Feb 12, 2013 17:32:49 GMT 3
Mank
Voting in a block is not inherently bad.
My problem with Ngunyi is that he seems to send the message - not too subliminally even, that one or two ethnic groups can and will hold the rest of the nation hostage, no matter what.
Or conversely, that the rest of the nation should and must of necessity work against the two ethnic groups.
See the danger in that? Afrigun, You are misreading Ngunyi's "tyranny of numbers" to insinuate that it is a prescription of how people " should" vote, when it is simply a number crunching of what established patterns imply to this election, if repeated. It is a prospective analysis of a specific election upon a background of known voting behaviour, and not at all an endorsement of a voting behaviour. Those saying that he makes unrealistic assumptions are attacking him from the right direction, but they fall short when they do not present their own positions of what assumptions would be correct, or at least which of his assumptions are incorrect and by how much. It is in the assumptions fields, and data resource used, that work like his gets challenged, for that work is only as persuasive as the assumptions and data can justify. You started by saying "Voting in a block is not inherently bad." When forecasting an outcome, the observations one uses are the observations of how that outcome forms - the analysis is not a representation of what is "good" or "bad", but what "is". Consider this: If we were to forecast the the amount of meat to be consumed in the country next year, we would of necessity start with a profile of meat eaters across the country, right? Would you then interpret that to be a prescription of who should eat meat?
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 12, 2013 23:17:01 GMT 3
Omwenga ori, you are too often inclined to take leave of your critical faculties when handling cord vs jubilee. the role of kariuki chotara does not befit you osiepa. The Luo word for that is terrible.
Consider the fact of UK being good for at least 42% of the popular vote. Such a man, in the politics of legislation in a parliament, could still be more influential than you think.
Why do you think, even in the USA, the POTUS is perpetually talking bilateral abracadabra, and opening the white state-house every night to party barons of the opposition party?
Think about the legislative agenda of your party, and ask yourself if the president may not just be a figure-head, tossed around the senate and Lower chamber!
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Post by Omwenga on Feb 13, 2013 4:47:55 GMT 3
Omwenga ori, you are too often inclined to take leave of your critical faculties when handling cord vs jubilee. Ori Jakaswanga, I know of none but indulge me with examples where yours truly has done this and if you do, I'll show you where you're mistaken, which should be all of it. Two things: First, someday before I completely retire to the village where I first peaked at life and all the beauty surrounding it, and if convinced it's worth it, I may share with you and others a chapter in books, I hope to put together in those sunset years one chapter about another Moi era man from Naivasha I call a friend even though I'll have to wait until everything realigns before the elections to determine whether we are still friends. You'll have to peruse my blog to find out how many friends I have lost over the months and years simply for believing in the cause that I do. Second, it shall be I disagreeignment to find out from those directly responsible and the cause of our sharing the marital relationship we do what the heck this osiepa term is and if it's as nasty as you make it sound, then ori will be withdrawn with immediate effect in reference to you! ;D I have considered the different possible scenarios in numbers albeit all in Round 1 but not in Round 2, which I have always maintained will not come to be. Possible but not in his case for a number of reasons I could get into but don't only because that's not necessary. Peripherally worth noting but overall apples and oranges. Actually have and know of others who have and after being crucified as to what the solution ma be, something else is ongoing to the same effect.
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Post by joblesscorner on Feb 13, 2013 17:48:24 GMT 3
this says it all
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 13, 2013 19:29:34 GMT 3
Omwenga ori, you are too often inclined to take leave of your critical faculties when handling cord vs jubilee. Ori Jakaswanga, I know of none but indulge me with examples where yours truly has done this and if you do, I'll show you where you're mistaken, which should be all of it. Ori Omwenga, this is just one. ;D That statement totally ignores the history of voting and candidates in Nyanza under the tutelage of Raila. And which this shout was addressing: Thoo, waol gi rigging ma kinde ka kinde! we wayier ma wadwaro!' --we are tired of ever rigging, this time let us choose the one we want! In other words this was the last straw which broke the camel's back. Not an incidental quarrel in a family. 2. Of the top Jaluos surrounding Raila and who form his court of riggers, which one have you seen campaigning on his own for CORD far from Nyanza? {In this respect Ababu Namwamba is stellar and highly regarded as an example of a hunter-dog. He has been seen alone arguing for CORD deep in 'enemy territory'! But our Jaluos? so the Luos notice and in desperation say of Raila and his mess: Raila gi guogine mag ot gi! gin ok gidhi duer, mako le oko! gin mana e ot ka, tong' ema girado e jikon! Translated as: Raila and his unhelpful Luo house-dogs! they only stay in the house. They do not hunt [Like ABABU]. They are merely content to steal and gobble the eggs of the house in the kitchen!This kind of critical rapport is totally lacking in our assessments. It means you have a gloss pen. And that now is ... kind of well ... uncomfortable!
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Post by abdulmote on Feb 13, 2013 19:59:22 GMT 3
Omwenga's misplaced analogy aside, can some one amongst Uhuruto supporters answer me a very simple and straight forward question and no gimmicks please: With all the concerns raised about their ICC hearing and the time that might take, how are they supposed to effectively run this country and is it an issue we should all be worried about at all?
The NCCK has stated that we should all be concerned. Rayila has told us that it is not possible to govern Kenya through "Skype" and Bensouda has estimated that the hearing can take anything over two years! I am not sure if Uhuruto's supporters are telling us doing the proverbial ostrich maneuver is an answer we should all adapt.
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Post by abdulmote on Feb 16, 2013 20:19:03 GMT 3
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 16, 2013 21:29:21 GMT 3
Mheshimiwa Abdul, Theatrically flummoxed or not, the astonishment of the goodly professor fom Bufallo, at the lack of public out-cry at Uhuruto's assertion that they can run Kenya via skype , is easy to assuage thus. The Kenyans accept what their hearts have instinctively alerted them is the truth. If Uhuruto wins, the cooperation with the ICC is dead. Bring your consequences. Few people believe President Uhuru would, as CIC, subject himself to the ignominy of going to the Hague, only to end up in handcuffs! ---imagine that as the epitaph to an elected serving head of state! ;D ;D And Ruto remembers the fate of the other Samoei. He went to a courtly meeting trusting in the civility of the whiteman. He was shot dead. Okay then. May be Ruto is a fool, and fools repeat same mistakes all over.
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Post by OtishOtish on Feb 16, 2013 22:09:50 GMT 3
You are a funny guy, abdulmote, asking awkward questions like that. Anyway ... They won't be running the country from the Hague. Remember that they have asked the court to try them by video. On that, I noticed that during the status conference they had technical problems with the video link. So I think they will change their request to being tried by telephone. They might even consider saving costs and ask for trial by email.
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Post by abdulmote on Feb 16, 2013 23:08:07 GMT 3
I am only human Honorable Otish. Sometimes I can come across as awkward. But funny it ain't. I had been thinking about 'voting' for Uhuruto for the past few days since the Prezodential Debate. The guy impressed me most than all the others if only for his eloquence. But everytime I tried to push my newly acquired loyalty, that question kept on popping up, in front my new path towards freedom, and the only way out was ask others the same, that perhaps they may convince me and initiate me into Camp Uhuru!
But I suppose that is indeed an awkward question. More like asking someone whether they are male or female, yet you can see that the person being asked, either has a chest bulging with feminine breasts, or it is a man with bulging lower anatomy, grudgingly pushing the fly on one side!
Having said that, I am seriously curious on what is occupying the brain quarters of those who are almost manic as Uhuru's supporters. I mean, does this question not disturb them? Or is it that they are playing clever and are just trying to trick us into facilitating Uhuru's imminent ICC evasion?
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Post by b6k on Mar 10, 2013 9:58:46 GMT 3
Omwenga, I feel your pain. If a day is a long time in politics, what pray tell is 22? Some of us can be objective enough to read your missives, superimpose upon them Jakaswanga's (God bless him) more balanced dispatches from Nyanza, mix on top of that Mutahi Ngunyi's "Tyranny of Numbers" & see all is not well with the CORDed bunch. All I am waiting for is tonight's debate to see whether your man will get a bump upwards or get dumped. My gut feeling tells me it will be downhill from there as well. The election, as you rightfully state, remains a battle between competing factions of the status quo (aka KANU as PODP mentioned on another thread). The one faction you write off every other day (before you decided to write off UK, may just be the one to bite you in the derriere). There are still 22 days left for realignments to ensure ABR wins the day ;D ;D ;D ;D b6k,You can only figuratively feel the pain of someone literally in pain; I am not in pain at all so you cannot feel my pain that doesn't exist. I am quite comfortable where things stand with Raila and Cord and this will only get better in the days ahead through victory come March 4, 2013. The Countdown is on. Omwenga, your post-mortem please.....
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Post by Omwenga on Mar 11, 2013 13:59:53 GMT 3
b6k,You can only figuratively feel the pain of someone literally in pain; I am not in pain at all so you cannot feel my pain that doesn't exist. I am quite comfortable where things stand with Raila and Cord and this will only get better in the days ahead through victory come March 4, 2013. The Countdown is on. Omwenga, your post-mortem please..... b6k,I stand by my analysis; flawed and shameless announcement by IEBC that Uhuru won does not change that analysis but the courts will nullify the results and send this into a run-off, which I have previously said there won't be any but Raila and Cord will accept one for the peace of the country rather than insisting on Raila being declared the winner upon disqualification of Uhuruto.
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Post by b6k on Mar 11, 2013 15:20:07 GMT 3
I see a press conference ongoing. Let's wait & see, oyominto....
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Post by afrigun on Apr 2, 2013 15:12:38 GMT 3
;D ;D ;D ;D ... ...
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Post by joblesscorner on Apr 2, 2013 16:23:55 GMT 3
Afrigun,Dont hit a brother when his down.. ;D ;D ;D
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Post by amadain on Apr 2, 2013 20:05:59 GMT 3
Omwenga's political *analyst* career is finished.
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