Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 30, 2005 17:49:53 GMT 3
It may not be smooth sailing for ‘No’ team
By Juma Aluoch, originally carried in the Kenya Times
WHEN the curtain finally fell last Monday to mark the end of the first phase of a bruising campaign by the “orange” team, its supporters could be excused for their premature celebration.
Most of the ardent “No” supporters have boasted that with the massive crowds that have been synonymous with their campaign rallies, they have already triumphed.
Since the Orange team that gravitate around Cabinet Ministers Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Najib Balala, Ochilo Ayacko and Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o commenced their campaigns in Machakos, the crowds that have attended these rallies have been enormous.
In some of the rallies, especially the Kapkatet, Kakamega and Kisumu rallies, the crowds were so massive that even the uncompromising Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and KANU youths appeared overwhelmed.
The million dollar question is whether these massive crowds will determine the outcome of the November 21.
While the Orange team has been boasting of huge crowds during their rallies, their “Yes” (Banana) counterparts have not been very successful. Some of the ‘‘Banana’’ rallies have had to be cancelled at the last minute by the convenors citing logistical problems.
In some of the rallies especially in Garissa, a large team of cabinet ministers led by Vice-President Moody Awori were forced to leave in a huff due to violence. It also saw an irate Water and Irrigation Minister Martha Karua anger the local people over her “refugee” remark.
It is true that even in those areas where the “Yes” teams have held successful rallies; the crowds have not immensely been electrifying.
Most of those meetings targeted churches where they expounded on why they feel Kenyans should support the Wako Draft.
What many are asking is whether the huge crowds associated with the Orange team during their campaigns country-wide would translate into votes.
Having attended some of the Orange campaign rallies, it is clear a majority of the country’s youths both in urban and rural areas tend to identify with the “No” team.
Almost 60 per cent of those who attend the rallies and constitute the massive crowds are the same youths.
It is clear that some of these youths are yet to secure national identity or voters cards and will therefore not take part in the referendum.
Going by past practice during general and by-elections, a majority of these youths end up providing security for the political aspirants.
Many have therefore never factored in that their fundamental and democratic right is that first they should think of how they will cast their votes before embarking on security issue.
Unless therefore some mechanism is put in place to ensure that these youths vote, then the Orange team may have to pay dearly.
According to Rangwe MP Philip Okundi and his Karachuonyo counterpart, Dr. Adhu Awiti, the “No” team group is not taking things for granted.
Dr. Adhu said it would be wrong for their group to remain complacent and fail to evolve more strategies simply because of the massive crowds that have been following them during their campaigns
Mr. Okundi said their campaign secretariat including both LDP and KANU think-tanks are coming up with the second phase of the campaigns that will even include door to door.
LDP’s Secretary for Legal Affairs Otieno Kajwang who is known for his “Bado mapambano” slogan also feel that a lot more needs to be done.
Speaking at Magunga Trading Centre in Suba District where the Orange team took the campaign to Assistant Minister Zadock Syongo’s home turf, Kajwang said they are aware of the monumental task ahead of them.
Kajwang said though they are aware that majority of the poor and oppressed Kenyans support the “Orange” team, they have to work hard.
Local political analysts believe that though the “Yes” team may have not been lucky to get the morale boosting crowds during their rallies, they might be having strategies that would see them turn the tables .One of the team’s local campaign strategies in Luo Nyanza said since they are aware of the Herculean task of campaigning in the area, they have evolved a strategy that would see them garner sizeable votes.
He said each of those who have already been identified would have a task of luring between 20 the to 50 people to vote for the Bananas.
What is clear is that though the crowds that have been synonymous with Orange campaign rallies has given them a morale booster, they have to work extra hard to achieve their goal.
The orange team should be aware of recent remarks by Constitutional Affairs Minister Kiraitu Mirungi that the Wako Draft is a government project which must succeed.
Being a government project, it therefore means that some civil servants including Chiefs, Assistant Chiefs, District Officers (DOs) and District Commissioners (DCs) may play some significant role for its success.
Judging from the mood, however, among those in the Provincial administration, it might not be easy for them to convince the already hostile and charged crowd to vote in favour of the project.
With only 52 days to go, it is therefore evident that a more bruising battle lies ahead.
By Juma Aluoch, originally carried in the Kenya Times
WHEN the curtain finally fell last Monday to mark the end of the first phase of a bruising campaign by the “orange” team, its supporters could be excused for their premature celebration.
Most of the ardent “No” supporters have boasted that with the massive crowds that have been synonymous with their campaign rallies, they have already triumphed.
Since the Orange team that gravitate around Cabinet Ministers Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Najib Balala, Ochilo Ayacko and Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o commenced their campaigns in Machakos, the crowds that have attended these rallies have been enormous.
In some of the rallies, especially the Kapkatet, Kakamega and Kisumu rallies, the crowds were so massive that even the uncompromising Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and KANU youths appeared overwhelmed.
The million dollar question is whether these massive crowds will determine the outcome of the November 21.
While the Orange team has been boasting of huge crowds during their rallies, their “Yes” (Banana) counterparts have not been very successful. Some of the ‘‘Banana’’ rallies have had to be cancelled at the last minute by the convenors citing logistical problems.
In some of the rallies especially in Garissa, a large team of cabinet ministers led by Vice-President Moody Awori were forced to leave in a huff due to violence. It also saw an irate Water and Irrigation Minister Martha Karua anger the local people over her “refugee” remark.
It is true that even in those areas where the “Yes” teams have held successful rallies; the crowds have not immensely been electrifying.
Most of those meetings targeted churches where they expounded on why they feel Kenyans should support the Wako Draft.
What many are asking is whether the huge crowds associated with the Orange team during their campaigns country-wide would translate into votes.
Having attended some of the Orange campaign rallies, it is clear a majority of the country’s youths both in urban and rural areas tend to identify with the “No” team.
Almost 60 per cent of those who attend the rallies and constitute the massive crowds are the same youths.
It is clear that some of these youths are yet to secure national identity or voters cards and will therefore not take part in the referendum.
Going by past practice during general and by-elections, a majority of these youths end up providing security for the political aspirants.
Many have therefore never factored in that their fundamental and democratic right is that first they should think of how they will cast their votes before embarking on security issue.
Unless therefore some mechanism is put in place to ensure that these youths vote, then the Orange team may have to pay dearly.
According to Rangwe MP Philip Okundi and his Karachuonyo counterpart, Dr. Adhu Awiti, the “No” team group is not taking things for granted.
Dr. Adhu said it would be wrong for their group to remain complacent and fail to evolve more strategies simply because of the massive crowds that have been following them during their campaigns
Mr. Okundi said their campaign secretariat including both LDP and KANU think-tanks are coming up with the second phase of the campaigns that will even include door to door.
LDP’s Secretary for Legal Affairs Otieno Kajwang who is known for his “Bado mapambano” slogan also feel that a lot more needs to be done.
Speaking at Magunga Trading Centre in Suba District where the Orange team took the campaign to Assistant Minister Zadock Syongo’s home turf, Kajwang said they are aware of the monumental task ahead of them.
Kajwang said though they are aware that majority of the poor and oppressed Kenyans support the “Orange” team, they have to work hard.
Local political analysts believe that though the “Yes” team may have not been lucky to get the morale boosting crowds during their rallies, they might be having strategies that would see them turn the tables .One of the team’s local campaign strategies in Luo Nyanza said since they are aware of the Herculean task of campaigning in the area, they have evolved a strategy that would see them garner sizeable votes.
He said each of those who have already been identified would have a task of luring between 20 the to 50 people to vote for the Bananas.
What is clear is that though the crowds that have been synonymous with Orange campaign rallies has given them a morale booster, they have to work extra hard to achieve their goal.
The orange team should be aware of recent remarks by Constitutional Affairs Minister Kiraitu Mirungi that the Wako Draft is a government project which must succeed.
Being a government project, it therefore means that some civil servants including Chiefs, Assistant Chiefs, District Officers (DOs) and District Commissioners (DCs) may play some significant role for its success.
Judging from the mood, however, among those in the Provincial administration, it might not be easy for them to convince the already hostile and charged crowd to vote in favour of the project.
With only 52 days to go, it is therefore evident that a more bruising battle lies ahead.