Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 30, 2005 21:19:56 GMT 3
A Message to the Orange Leadership from a Future Member of the Reds
Sent by Onyango Oloo to the ODM in Nairobi, Friday, September 30, 2005
I am writing this solidarity message to the collective leadership and secretariat of the newly constituted Orange Democratic Movement on the penultimate day of September hoping to ignite an ongoing discussion, robust debate and frank exchange of opinion.
As many of you know by now, I am a firm supporter of the NO to Wako campaign. To this end I have devoted a lot of my time and resources in raising the issues and promoting debate on the JUKWAA online forum that I launched in August as a venue for discussing Kenyan and international politics.
If you go to the home page of our site and scroll half-way through the page, you will notice a flashing news banner with the following slogans:
Give Us some Orange Juice!
Vote NO on November 21st!
Say Tumekataa to Wako!
Say Hatutaki to Violence as Well!
Peace is the Path Way to Democracy!
Put Your Pangas and Stones Away!
Referendum is NOT about Luos or Gikuyus!
It is About Our Quest for a Democratic Katiba!
Shun the Fear Mongers!
Isolate the Tribalists!
One Kenya, One Destiny- for Justice and Freedom!
Kenya Belongs To All of Us!
Let Us Not Make Kenya Another Rwanda '94
Let Us Make Kenya More Like a South Africa '94
Pamoja Tutashinda!
Wavumulivu Hula Mbivu!
Vijana Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wazee Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wanawake Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wanaume Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakristo Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Waislamu Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wafanyi Kazi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wafanyi Biashara Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Walemavu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasanii Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasomi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasomali Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wameru Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakisii Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wadawida Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wachonyi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
WaOgiek Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wabukusu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wagunya Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wapokomo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wamaasai Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waturkana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Warendille Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasakuye Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wagabra Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waborana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watharaka Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wandia Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Marasta Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mabeste Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mashujaa wa Mtaa Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mabingwa wa Ushake Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wajeng Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasapere Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Makarau Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Maodinari Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Masupuu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Macheki Bobu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Warogi wa Hip Hop Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mashabiki wa Chini kwa Chini Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Maveteran wa Ndombolo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wapenzi wa Zilizopendwa Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wafuasi wa Rusha Roho Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Machampioni wa Benga Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wazee wa Mwomboko Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Vijana wa Bund Ohangla Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wachejazi wa Mugithi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanawake wa Chakacha Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanaume wa Sukuti Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanariadha Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanandondi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanakandanda Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Mashabiki wa Rugby Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanaofuata Mpira wa Vikapu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watazamaji wa Redykulass Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasikilizaji wa Jee Huu Ni Ungwana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakamba Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wahindi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wazungu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watoto Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wazazi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
WaKenya Nchini Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakenya Ngambo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Sote Wenye Kenya Tunataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waingereza Wasema NO!
Waswahili Wasema Hapana!
Kura ya Maoni Twapiga Tukinena na Kuwika Hapana
Haya Basi Naomba Chungwa!!
(I)
From the above it is obvious I am taking sides. Unlike some hypocrites, I do not shy away from saying that YES, I do have a NO agenda and NO, I will not be a Yes Man to a monstrosity – despite the number of times President Kibaki will call someone of us “ wapumbavu” because we decline to partake of a bunch of poisoned bananas.
Let me congratulate you on a very well organized national campaign. I must say that you have done very well in terms of organizing the public rallies, preparing talking points and having influential opinion leaders and news makers take your cause to the national media within the country and to many of the Kenyan public forums internationally. I have been impressed by your alacrity in taking a colour and a fruit and infusing it with passion, with dreams, with ideals. Hopefully at the end of the referendum campaign you will still be able to sit down before a sahani of matoke and ask for a second helping. Within the confines of mainstream politics, I must say that you have managed to put together a team with a “national” veneer- and the fact that you have had rousing Karibus in each province attests to your country-wide pull. Of course one would have wished for something more along the lines of gender parity in terms of your overall leadership.
From what I have been privy to offline and from what I can see online, it would appear that going by your current showing, there appears to be no way for the YES side to squeak through to victory unless they get embroiled in massive voter disenfranchisement, outright rigging and falsification of results. But to do that, they risk a terrible imbroglio. The very fact that what I call the Gang of 74 led by Syongo and Wekesa and some elements of civil society are feverishly hankering for a postponement, a cancellation or a boycott on the spurious and specious reasons that the referendum vote will “divide” Kenyans attests to the formidable challenge you pose to my former lawyer's "government project". Elsewhere I recently issued a rebuttal to those bleating for a deferral with democratic destiny and last night I fired off a rejoinder to Prof. Makau wa Mutua’s boycott call.
(II)
On this issue of the impending referendum on the Wako Draft of the proposed Kenyan Constitution, I think that your team holds the strategic and tactical initiative.
By that I mean is that you have a strategic edge over your rivals because you have managed to not only capture, but to harness the popular democratic mood in the country which speaks of frustration, anger and bitterness and the shameless betrayal of our national aspiration that the core of the NAK leadership and their newly found fellow travelers from Nyachae’s outfit and Biwott’s faction has exhibited openly towards the Kenyan people.
Despite the fact that the blood-soaked KANU party is on the NO side, the same wananchi who buried this political party at the 2002 polls is hoisting the leadership of the Official Opposition as heroes and sheroes- underscoring a salient point in national politics- it is not where you started from but where you end up that really matters at the end of the historical day. For example at the beginning of his life the young Harry Thuku was a fire-breathing militant nationalist who confronted colonial racists fearlessly. Yet towards the end of his life in the 1950s the same man had graduated into a Nyeuthi Quisling par excellence, railing against the Mau Mau and showing common cause with the Hingas, Mathenges, Mahihus, Nderis, Kanyotus, Gethis and Michukis on the homungati front. Today we see Koigi wa Wamwere and Mirugi Kariuki two unbroken comrades from the 1970s and 1980s forming part of the bulwark of the repressive apparatus of the contemporary Kenyan neo-colonial state- just like some well-known ex–detainees in your own leadership ranks temporarily lost their sanity to seek the leadership of the KANU party at Kasarani on March 18th, 2002.
Tactically, you also hold a comfortable lead because you brilliantly turned the tables on your YES antagonists by turning their own agenda against them- because after all it is the Kiraitus and Wakos who thought it would be a great idea to have Kenyans vote yes on no to their caricature.
(III)
Some words of caution and let us cite the last month of the 2004 US Presidential elections for illustrative purposes.
Right up to that point, John Kerry was pulling ahead on all key indicators- opinion polls, televised debates, endorsements, crowds at public rallies, media coverage you name it. But Kerry grossly underestimated George Bush’s capacity for electoral mayhem- from a minor thing like sneaking in a listening device literally behind his bulging back to cheat during the live debates to putting in an electronic rigging operation months in advance in key states like Ohio to egging Osama bin Laden (whose older brother was a business associate of the Bush family right up to 2001) to blanketing the Bible belt with fears of a Gay Takeover, a Feminist Dictatorship and a 21st Century Slave Uprising- the devious work of the dastardly unconvicted felon Karl Rove- to cashing on voter apathy when it came to the Democratic base while hauling everyone who could vote Republican to go out and vote.
In other words, Karl Rove and his Republican minions “conceded” the public relations battle to Kerry even as they hit the hustings and rejuvenated their conservative social base, winning surprising cross over appeal from a fresh infusion of deranged right wing immigrants, including a clutch of unhinged neo-conservative Kenyans that I saw prancing online during that period.
So even if we factor in the 300,000 stolen votes in Ohio- or whatever that number was, the Republicans still scored a victory over their Democratic opponents in at least one area- staying on message and bringing out their base of card carrying supporters.
It is my considered opinion that the announcement, mark you, I am talking of the announcement, not the formation of the Orange Democratic Movement was rather premature and served to dilute and somehow derail the main message which was:
“Kenyans, irrespective of where you stand ideologically, vote against the Wako Draft because it is a mutilation of Bomas and it is a shameless attempt to hoodwink the wananchi that the Wanjiku led path to a Katiba has been consummated at last when in fact they are busy installing an Imperial Presidency.”
Also as some of your detractors have underscored, crowds in the stadia do not translate to millions of voters ticking the NO option in the comfort and privacy of the polling booth. In other words, you must meticulously verify that you actually do have the numbers.
Some of us observing from the overseas sidelines saw the flashing pangas at the Thika rally as a sneak preview of the bloody tactics that some of the lurking war lords in the Yes team may resort to as the countdown to November 21st goes to the wire.
Resorting to crude tribal vile talk referring to some Kenyans from certain regions and communities as so called nyamu cia ruguru and using the scarecrow chatter that Raila wants to overthrow Kibaki is simply fear mongering- but as we saw in the United States, such fear mongering often works. In our Kenyan case however, no amount of ethnic solidarity pitting the andu aitu against the k*hiis- or any other tribal permutation of adversaries can effectively dislodge the national consensus that has developed against the Wako Draft.
From my quiet corner here in Canada I surmise that the only avenue available to the Yes side is reaching back to Daniel arap Moi’s old bag of electoral tricks- politically motivated clashes, arbitrary arrests, harassment by the secret police, manipulation of voter records, denial of access to polling centres in NO majority regions and plain old ballot stuffing and fraudulent referendum results. Judging from their ruthlessness in clamping down on the civil servants strike and the July mass action days, I would hazard a guess that this coterie in power is simply too drunk with power as to completely disregard the loss in human lives that its ruthless repression of the NO supporters will surely entail if matters ever got to that. The fact that they committed three faux pas in a week- arresting David Ochami from his own newsroom with a crude lie; staking out elected MPs in parliament and denouncing the very donors they supplicate themselves whenever they are in a financial crunch points to a growing desperation to hang on to power at all costs. Privately I have been informed that some of the NAK schemers have decided they will not make the “mistake” of handing over power to someone outside the Mount Kenya region- surely a stance that is a recipe for a future civil war because there is no section of this republic that can arrogantly arrogate itself the not so divine right to perpetual rule over the rest of the Kenyan populace.
Given the above paragraph, I would therefore urge the leaders of the Orange Democratic Movement to cater for the possibility that some mischievous miscreants in the Banana camp will attempt to PROVOKE a series of violent conflagrations that can then be blamed on the NO side, giving the Yes side several possible options-
Shutting down the referendum;
Paralyzing the operations of the Orange team;
Declaring a State of Emergency
Imposing an unpopular result on a cowed and terrified public.
Personally, having seen those pangas there is nothing that convinces me that some of the war lords in the Yes Camp are NOT determined to assassinate Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi and other NO leaders.
The stakes are simply too high, ladies and gentlemen of the Orange team.
Lots of promises have been made- I am told that apart from Tuju who may have been promised the Prime Minister slot as my friend Miguna Miguna speculated recently, Simeon Nyachae may have been offered similar plums- with some of his North American aides allegedly being groomed for certain diplomatic appointments. The fact that Musikari Kombo decided to defy his own Ford-Kenya reconnaissance briefings that project a huge win for NO in Western Province and other Ford-Kenya strong-holds leads me to assume that this and other cabinet ministers have simply been bought as cheaply as a gunia of makaa. This means that all these people-the Tujus, the Nyachaes, the Kituyis, the Kirwas, the Ngilus, the Mungatanas, the Dzoros and the Saitotis- will be co-conspirators in whatever dark and devious plots that are currently been cooked along with the sufurias of poisoned matoke in the kitchens of the Yes campaign.
(III)
Vigilance must be a watchword of the Orange team which must assiduously stick to democratic principles punctuated by civil and non-violent methods while keeping a hawk eye on the look out for any breakout of overt fascist activity.
I was going to say that here the Orange Team could marshal the services of the human rights groups and other civil society organizations, but alas, as a sector, one can not assume that they are really opposed to the Wako Draft- a very big percentage have gone on the record as being adamantly opposed to the Bomas Draft which is the bedrock of the NO campaign. Yesterday I saw a flashing banner- which did NOT later translate into a feature story posted online citing a report about Kenyan- based civil society organizations calling for the referendum to be cancelled. If verified that for me would place those civil society organizations certainly in the anti-NO camp if not out rightly with the Yes team. In other words, the NO camp cannot and should not expect some of this country’s most prominent social justice organizations to stand up and denounce the Interhamwe tactics of the Yes team- so far it is only Maina Kiai that I have seen issue a public statement against the nyamu cia ruguru yapping on some FM station. But let me hasten to add that I rely on the stories selectively posted to the web by the three main dailies- and we never get to read The People, Taifa Leo or other publications that may or may not have covered other remarks. At any rate, I am part of a very extensive mailing list of these civil society organizations and I can say without fear of contradiction that I am yet to see anyone denounce Michuki for reducing Kibaki to a Gikuyu president and Karume to a Gikuyu minister.
[CONTINUED...]
Sent by Onyango Oloo to the ODM in Nairobi, Friday, September 30, 2005
I am writing this solidarity message to the collective leadership and secretariat of the newly constituted Orange Democratic Movement on the penultimate day of September hoping to ignite an ongoing discussion, robust debate and frank exchange of opinion.
As many of you know by now, I am a firm supporter of the NO to Wako campaign. To this end I have devoted a lot of my time and resources in raising the issues and promoting debate on the JUKWAA online forum that I launched in August as a venue for discussing Kenyan and international politics.
If you go to the home page of our site and scroll half-way through the page, you will notice a flashing news banner with the following slogans:
Give Us some Orange Juice!
Vote NO on November 21st!
Say Tumekataa to Wako!
Say Hatutaki to Violence as Well!
Peace is the Path Way to Democracy!
Put Your Pangas and Stones Away!
Referendum is NOT about Luos or Gikuyus!
It is About Our Quest for a Democratic Katiba!
Shun the Fear Mongers!
Isolate the Tribalists!
One Kenya, One Destiny- for Justice and Freedom!
Kenya Belongs To All of Us!
Let Us Not Make Kenya Another Rwanda '94
Let Us Make Kenya More Like a South Africa '94
Pamoja Tutashinda!
Wavumulivu Hula Mbivu!
Vijana Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wazee Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wanawake Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wanaume Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakristo Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Waislamu Wataka Nini- Katiba Mpya!
Wafanyi Kazi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wafanyi Biashara Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Walemavu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasanii Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasomi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasomali Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wameru Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakisii Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wadawida Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wachonyi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
WaOgiek Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wabukusu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wagunya Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wapokomo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wamaasai Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waturkana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Warendille Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasakuye Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wagabra Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waborana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watharaka Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wandia Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Marasta Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mabeste Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mashujaa wa Mtaa Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mabingwa wa Ushake Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wajeng Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasapere Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Makarau Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Maodinari Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Masupuu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Macheki Bobu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Warogi wa Hip Hop Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Mashabiki wa Chini kwa Chini Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Maveteran wa Ndombolo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wapenzi wa Zilizopendwa Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wafuasi wa Rusha Roho Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Machampioni wa Benga Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Wazee wa Mwomboko Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Vijana wa Bund Ohangla Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wachejazi wa Mugithi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanawake wa Chakacha Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanaume wa Sukuti Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanariadha Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanandondi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanakandanda Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya
Mashabiki wa Rugby Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wanaofuata Mpira wa Vikapu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watazamaji wa Redykulass Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wasikilizaji wa Jee Huu Ni Ungwana Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakamba Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wahindi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wazungu Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Watoto Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wazazi Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
WaKenya Nchini Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Wakenya Ngambo Wataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Sote Wenye Kenya Tunataka Nini-Katiba Mpya!
Waingereza Wasema NO!
Waswahili Wasema Hapana!
Kura ya Maoni Twapiga Tukinena na Kuwika Hapana
Haya Basi Naomba Chungwa!!
(I)
From the above it is obvious I am taking sides. Unlike some hypocrites, I do not shy away from saying that YES, I do have a NO agenda and NO, I will not be a Yes Man to a monstrosity – despite the number of times President Kibaki will call someone of us “ wapumbavu” because we decline to partake of a bunch of poisoned bananas.
Let me congratulate you on a very well organized national campaign. I must say that you have done very well in terms of organizing the public rallies, preparing talking points and having influential opinion leaders and news makers take your cause to the national media within the country and to many of the Kenyan public forums internationally. I have been impressed by your alacrity in taking a colour and a fruit and infusing it with passion, with dreams, with ideals. Hopefully at the end of the referendum campaign you will still be able to sit down before a sahani of matoke and ask for a second helping. Within the confines of mainstream politics, I must say that you have managed to put together a team with a “national” veneer- and the fact that you have had rousing Karibus in each province attests to your country-wide pull. Of course one would have wished for something more along the lines of gender parity in terms of your overall leadership.
From what I have been privy to offline and from what I can see online, it would appear that going by your current showing, there appears to be no way for the YES side to squeak through to victory unless they get embroiled in massive voter disenfranchisement, outright rigging and falsification of results. But to do that, they risk a terrible imbroglio. The very fact that what I call the Gang of 74 led by Syongo and Wekesa and some elements of civil society are feverishly hankering for a postponement, a cancellation or a boycott on the spurious and specious reasons that the referendum vote will “divide” Kenyans attests to the formidable challenge you pose to my former lawyer's "government project". Elsewhere I recently issued a rebuttal to those bleating for a deferral with democratic destiny and last night I fired off a rejoinder to Prof. Makau wa Mutua’s boycott call.
(II)
On this issue of the impending referendum on the Wako Draft of the proposed Kenyan Constitution, I think that your team holds the strategic and tactical initiative.
By that I mean is that you have a strategic edge over your rivals because you have managed to not only capture, but to harness the popular democratic mood in the country which speaks of frustration, anger and bitterness and the shameless betrayal of our national aspiration that the core of the NAK leadership and their newly found fellow travelers from Nyachae’s outfit and Biwott’s faction has exhibited openly towards the Kenyan people.
Despite the fact that the blood-soaked KANU party is on the NO side, the same wananchi who buried this political party at the 2002 polls is hoisting the leadership of the Official Opposition as heroes and sheroes- underscoring a salient point in national politics- it is not where you started from but where you end up that really matters at the end of the historical day. For example at the beginning of his life the young Harry Thuku was a fire-breathing militant nationalist who confronted colonial racists fearlessly. Yet towards the end of his life in the 1950s the same man had graduated into a Nyeuthi Quisling par excellence, railing against the Mau Mau and showing common cause with the Hingas, Mathenges, Mahihus, Nderis, Kanyotus, Gethis and Michukis on the homungati front. Today we see Koigi wa Wamwere and Mirugi Kariuki two unbroken comrades from the 1970s and 1980s forming part of the bulwark of the repressive apparatus of the contemporary Kenyan neo-colonial state- just like some well-known ex–detainees in your own leadership ranks temporarily lost their sanity to seek the leadership of the KANU party at Kasarani on March 18th, 2002.
Tactically, you also hold a comfortable lead because you brilliantly turned the tables on your YES antagonists by turning their own agenda against them- because after all it is the Kiraitus and Wakos who thought it would be a great idea to have Kenyans vote yes on no to their caricature.
(III)
Some words of caution and let us cite the last month of the 2004 US Presidential elections for illustrative purposes.
Right up to that point, John Kerry was pulling ahead on all key indicators- opinion polls, televised debates, endorsements, crowds at public rallies, media coverage you name it. But Kerry grossly underestimated George Bush’s capacity for electoral mayhem- from a minor thing like sneaking in a listening device literally behind his bulging back to cheat during the live debates to putting in an electronic rigging operation months in advance in key states like Ohio to egging Osama bin Laden (whose older brother was a business associate of the Bush family right up to 2001) to blanketing the Bible belt with fears of a Gay Takeover, a Feminist Dictatorship and a 21st Century Slave Uprising- the devious work of the dastardly unconvicted felon Karl Rove- to cashing on voter apathy when it came to the Democratic base while hauling everyone who could vote Republican to go out and vote.
In other words, Karl Rove and his Republican minions “conceded” the public relations battle to Kerry even as they hit the hustings and rejuvenated their conservative social base, winning surprising cross over appeal from a fresh infusion of deranged right wing immigrants, including a clutch of unhinged neo-conservative Kenyans that I saw prancing online during that period.
So even if we factor in the 300,000 stolen votes in Ohio- or whatever that number was, the Republicans still scored a victory over their Democratic opponents in at least one area- staying on message and bringing out their base of card carrying supporters.
It is my considered opinion that the announcement, mark you, I am talking of the announcement, not the formation of the Orange Democratic Movement was rather premature and served to dilute and somehow derail the main message which was:
“Kenyans, irrespective of where you stand ideologically, vote against the Wako Draft because it is a mutilation of Bomas and it is a shameless attempt to hoodwink the wananchi that the Wanjiku led path to a Katiba has been consummated at last when in fact they are busy installing an Imperial Presidency.”
Also as some of your detractors have underscored, crowds in the stadia do not translate to millions of voters ticking the NO option in the comfort and privacy of the polling booth. In other words, you must meticulously verify that you actually do have the numbers.
Some of us observing from the overseas sidelines saw the flashing pangas at the Thika rally as a sneak preview of the bloody tactics that some of the lurking war lords in the Yes team may resort to as the countdown to November 21st goes to the wire.
Resorting to crude tribal vile talk referring to some Kenyans from certain regions and communities as so called nyamu cia ruguru and using the scarecrow chatter that Raila wants to overthrow Kibaki is simply fear mongering- but as we saw in the United States, such fear mongering often works. In our Kenyan case however, no amount of ethnic solidarity pitting the andu aitu against the k*hiis- or any other tribal permutation of adversaries can effectively dislodge the national consensus that has developed against the Wako Draft.
From my quiet corner here in Canada I surmise that the only avenue available to the Yes side is reaching back to Daniel arap Moi’s old bag of electoral tricks- politically motivated clashes, arbitrary arrests, harassment by the secret police, manipulation of voter records, denial of access to polling centres in NO majority regions and plain old ballot stuffing and fraudulent referendum results. Judging from their ruthlessness in clamping down on the civil servants strike and the July mass action days, I would hazard a guess that this coterie in power is simply too drunk with power as to completely disregard the loss in human lives that its ruthless repression of the NO supporters will surely entail if matters ever got to that. The fact that they committed three faux pas in a week- arresting David Ochami from his own newsroom with a crude lie; staking out elected MPs in parliament and denouncing the very donors they supplicate themselves whenever they are in a financial crunch points to a growing desperation to hang on to power at all costs. Privately I have been informed that some of the NAK schemers have decided they will not make the “mistake” of handing over power to someone outside the Mount Kenya region- surely a stance that is a recipe for a future civil war because there is no section of this republic that can arrogantly arrogate itself the not so divine right to perpetual rule over the rest of the Kenyan populace.
Given the above paragraph, I would therefore urge the leaders of the Orange Democratic Movement to cater for the possibility that some mischievous miscreants in the Banana camp will attempt to PROVOKE a series of violent conflagrations that can then be blamed on the NO side, giving the Yes side several possible options-
Shutting down the referendum;
Paralyzing the operations of the Orange team;
Declaring a State of Emergency
Imposing an unpopular result on a cowed and terrified public.
Personally, having seen those pangas there is nothing that convinces me that some of the war lords in the Yes Camp are NOT determined to assassinate Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi and other NO leaders.
The stakes are simply too high, ladies and gentlemen of the Orange team.
Lots of promises have been made- I am told that apart from Tuju who may have been promised the Prime Minister slot as my friend Miguna Miguna speculated recently, Simeon Nyachae may have been offered similar plums- with some of his North American aides allegedly being groomed for certain diplomatic appointments. The fact that Musikari Kombo decided to defy his own Ford-Kenya reconnaissance briefings that project a huge win for NO in Western Province and other Ford-Kenya strong-holds leads me to assume that this and other cabinet ministers have simply been bought as cheaply as a gunia of makaa. This means that all these people-the Tujus, the Nyachaes, the Kituyis, the Kirwas, the Ngilus, the Mungatanas, the Dzoros and the Saitotis- will be co-conspirators in whatever dark and devious plots that are currently been cooked along with the sufurias of poisoned matoke in the kitchens of the Yes campaign.
(III)
Vigilance must be a watchword of the Orange team which must assiduously stick to democratic principles punctuated by civil and non-violent methods while keeping a hawk eye on the look out for any breakout of overt fascist activity.
I was going to say that here the Orange Team could marshal the services of the human rights groups and other civil society organizations, but alas, as a sector, one can not assume that they are really opposed to the Wako Draft- a very big percentage have gone on the record as being adamantly opposed to the Bomas Draft which is the bedrock of the NO campaign. Yesterday I saw a flashing banner- which did NOT later translate into a feature story posted online citing a report about Kenyan- based civil society organizations calling for the referendum to be cancelled. If verified that for me would place those civil society organizations certainly in the anti-NO camp if not out rightly with the Yes team. In other words, the NO camp cannot and should not expect some of this country’s most prominent social justice organizations to stand up and denounce the Interhamwe tactics of the Yes team- so far it is only Maina Kiai that I have seen issue a public statement against the nyamu cia ruguru yapping on some FM station. But let me hasten to add that I rely on the stories selectively posted to the web by the three main dailies- and we never get to read The People, Taifa Leo or other publications that may or may not have covered other remarks. At any rate, I am part of a very extensive mailing list of these civil society organizations and I can say without fear of contradiction that I am yet to see anyone denounce Michuki for reducing Kibaki to a Gikuyu president and Karume to a Gikuyu minister.
[CONTINUED...]