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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 2:03:24 GMT 3
[ ... contrary to what mank would have us believe, people voted mainly in ethnic blocks. their votes do not signify their opposition to the ICC process, rather it is evidence of the ways in which the ruling elites have managed to take Kenyans for a ride, manipulating their world outlook in the name of negative ethnicity. that's all.
You seem not to have noticed that there were a number of other presidential contenders from Uhuru's ethnic group. So while people voted in ethnic blocks, it is not so simply because of voting through ethnic blocks that Uhuru picked so many votes. ... otherwise he should have split those votes equally with others from his ethnicity. As I have said somewhere on this forum mine is not mere imagination rather it is informed by conversations with people that voted for Uhuru. Just today I was talking with one of them and he said ".... it is as I told you, we gave him all the votes so they can take him to Hague with them (votes)."
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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 1:48:38 GMT 3
Abdulmote,
I need to clarify that I was not accusing you of phrasing anything incorrectly. In that context I was referring to the Hague issue as the issue that is phrased anytime we are discussing Uhuru, Ruto, etc in context of the PEV. So I was saying that once the immediate subject is this Hague issue, then it is not the likely subject under which to see people expressing empathy for victims of PEV, even while people have that empathy.
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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 1:04:29 GMT 3
noway,
I don't think they were "wrongly accused", but that I will try to explain some other time. In my opinion, Raila and indeed Kibaki played their respective roles towards the PEV, be it differently to the Occampo Four. Again, that is another debate for another thread if it has not been discussed yet.
In the meantime, all I am asking is for the supporters of the two to try and have some empathy for the other side and especially the victims, and for the other side to consider the subject debate if it has any merit forward.
Is that too much to ask? Abdulmote, Its always possible to lose an important issue by phrasing it incorrectly. For example I recall one time in campus when we had gathered with management to discuss an extensive water crisis, but people phrased our problem as "we want hot water". ... soon the issue became about the type of heaters we had. In this case, it is difficult to focus on the real issue (namely the victims and their situation) when the immediate question is whether some folks should go to the Hague. .. it all becomes an issue about those folks and whether their situation is just. So I do not think your suggestion that empathy toward victims lacks in some quarters is justified.
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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 0:20:29 GMT 3
Abdulmote , Did it take an election to realize that we should forgive some people for being wrongly accused as the people bearing the greatest "criminal " responsibility for the post election violence witnessed in 2007-2008? As an adherent reader of political news you would know that Uhuru was Rutos political leader in KANU up-to less than three months to the General elections and the genesis of post election violence and with Ruto being accused of organizing and planning prior the P.E.V. then logically it implies that Uhuru either had knowledge or was involved in that planning. Most Kenyans either believe or are privy of information that Uhuru & Ruto are not liable for actions which led to the Post election Violence . Ocampo did not do any investigations and relied on reports based on half-truths , rumours and lies to convict uhuru and Ruto and consequently had Raila walking scot-free where as he was the criminal who should be facing ICC judges now as we speak. You clearly heard Muite during the first debate telling Raila in his face he is guilty as accused for the butchering of Kenyans against each other. Raila is the chief perpetrator of the Post election violence and with voting for Uhuru and Ruto in the just concluded elections this is a clear message to the ICC and the whole world that it does not understand the local issues which led to the P.E.V. and it is indeed the politicians led by Raila who incited the Kenyans to go at each other with the utterances and political strategy which was divisive that eventually resulted to Kenyans mudering each other and displacing each other from their respective homes . What the communities affected by the P.E.V. are saying in a nutshell is Raila is the one who should be at ICC and not Uhuru and Ruto thus contrary to your suggestion it should be Raila asking for forgiveness from Kenyans. oh boy ... the dogs are (were) sleeping, not dead!
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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 0:11:06 GMT 3
Ok Mank- Please don’t believe the following but it was in the Nation Online.
As of 22:55, Odinga 45.84%; Kenyatta 49.59%; Spoilt votes 0.95%;
Uhuru Kenyatta has 3,517, 629; Raila Odinga has 3,252,126; Rejected votes 67, 646.
Even when magically reduced, the rejected votes may still a factor. hackers or no hackers Funny thing is if Raila tilts over the balance and builds a margin like the one Uhuru has now (I don't know how much counting remains, so I can't tell if this is plausible), there will be a rotation of positions among many with respect to this "rejected ballots" debate.
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Post by mank on Mar 8, 2013 0:00:52 GMT 3
Ok Mank- Please don’t believe the following but it was in the Nation Online. As of 22:55, Odinga 45.84%; Kenyatta 49.59%; Spoilt votes 0.95%; Uhuru Kenyatta has 3,517, 629; Raila Odinga has 3,252,126; Rejected votes 67, 646. Even when magically reduced, the rejected votes may still a factor. hackers or no hackers That looks believable ... I am believing statistics depending on the context ... but curious as to the validity of any tales of what is happening or happened. In my view no one should be calling this election yet.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 23:45:57 GMT 3
If indeed Hassan owned up to a bug in the tallying software that would reproduce rejected votes, then I would say he is the very person that has most discredited the system. However while I have seen it written that he owned up to such a bug, I have not heard him say so, and I know there are all kinds of allegations floating around. So I hesitate to believe what I hear second/3rd hand, or read.
Assuming he owned up to it though, what then should be the limit of our imaginations as to what else the bug or its relative could be doing? I hate where Hassan would be putting us, in the world of uncertainty, if he indeed owned up to such a "demon"! Mank - If I told you it's midnight and very dark outside, you will not believe me until you saw it.
Sections of the news article posted here by Nowayhaha are verbatim but you want to see the video. Oh yes! I do! I am not believing anything second hand on this topic! I had actually read it somewhere that looked very authentic, as a headline just below streaming news, but I am being that careful on this. I won't call anyone a propagandist but I am treating each of you as one After all the title of this thread "They are stealing the elections again!" is propagandist. Mank - If I told you it's midnight and very dark outside, you will not believe me until you saw it.
. That sounds like an echo from my childhood ... they used to call me "doubting Thomas" ... it didn't help that I was named after a grandfather called TOMA (of course Thomas).
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 23:36:44 GMT 3
Chesirecat-- Your host may have been drunk but he was truthful. A Kenyan life is of much less value than say an American life. The only lives of less value than ours are probably the Darfuris of Sudan.
As to the guilt of Uhuru and Ruto, it doesn’t matter any more. In any case, more than 50+1% of Kenyans believe the ICC accusations are a total fabrication.
Yaani, Ocampo came to Kenya, looked up Waki and a few human rights crusaders, bought a six pack of tusker and looked for a mango tree with the best shade; under which they sat and wrote this fantastic fictional novel that is now being discussed at the ICC. That is what the majority of Kenyans believe.I don't know about a six pack and a mango tree but they could have been there. What you left of importance is one opportunist who is no longer helpful to the OTP - the fantasy revolves around his fertile lies!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 23:24:59 GMT 3
Hassan's explanation is the most complete form of absolute nonsense. If indeed the multiplier issue was an error in the programming, there's no way on earth (and heaven) it could not have been caught in testing. Very worst case scenario, it would have been caught at the arrival of the very first transmission... unless of course we are dealing with the greatest assembly of bumbling idiots at the IEBC. They actually sat there for over a day; tallying over 50% of the vote... and no one noticed. Look, there is no shame in accepting the systems were hacked. It happens all the time even in the US. Just Google.
Likely the hackers were instructed to screw around with the vote up to a certain limit where their 'winner' would be safe. Unfortunately, their pull-out strategy failed and the World started noticing and making loud noises. They had no option but to crush the entire system especially because in the end it's their boy who would be hurting. End of story, next chapter. If indeed Hassan owned up to a bug in the tallying software that would reproduce rejected votes, then I would say he is the very person that has most discredited the system. However while I have seen it written that he owned up to such a bug, I have not heard him say so, and I know there are all kinds of allegations floating around. So I hesitate to believe what I hear second/3rd hand, or read. Assuming he owned up to it though, what then should be the limit of our imaginations as to what else the bug or its relative could be doing? I hate where Hassan would be putting us, in the world of uncertainty, if he indeed owned up to such a "demon"!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 23:11:54 GMT 3
But they have not yet counted them all, right? So how would anyone know with such precision what the tally will finally be? OO,
Just so you know, one cannot win with 50.5%. It must be 50+1%. In my calculations, 50+1 is 51. So really, a win is 51% and above.
That's what the constitution says and yes CORD will go to court.
Mank- He knows because the whole thing is made up.I see ... did I take something seriously that was meant as a joke? On the 50 plus 1, I think the 1 is a vote, not %. In other words the idea is that there is something even marginal tilting the 50:50, and since you cannot split a vote, the marginal unit is 1 vote. So 50% and at least an additional vote.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 23:05:13 GMT 3
But they have not yet counted them all, right? So how would anyone know with such precision what the tally will finally be? That's why it's called a prediction! the margin or error is of course there. Your's is a prediction. OO's, which I was responding to, is not a prediction.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 21:55:53 GMT 3
... If your neighbor repeatedly rapes and impregnates your daughter but later agrees to marry her, where's the beef? ... And since we must now, as a nation, forgiven them, what business do they have at the ICC? .......... Very controversial means of arguing for what I think time will deliver. The idea that there is no beef if someone repeatedly rapes and impregrates your daughter but then decides to marry her is highly offensive, but I am unable to argue that it is not factual in our customs! What a shame! I believe the guys will soon go free of the ICC case - not on forgiveness, but on the merits of the case. I think O made too much of the imagined story of an opportunist, and overpromised wishful Kenyans, and apparently all the while probably not trusting the information himself.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 21:07:10 GMT 3
Deyiengs:
Interesting prediction.
A pal of mine that I ran into randomly around Aga Khan Walk in downtown Nairobi earlier this (Thursday the 7th) evening told me that he has been told that IEBC will tomorrow declare Uhuru Kenyatta the winner by 50.5%.
Friday is only a few hours away.
Onyango Oloo But they have not yet counted them all, right? So how would anyone know with such precision what the tally will finally be?
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 20:50:18 GMT 3
I have not heard any observer who questions the credibility of results being released to Kenyans. Yet we have these wild declarations like the one that is the heading of this thread! What a shame!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 19:56:21 GMT 3
Abdulmote,
Perhaps the right question is whether the two should be judged by a jury of Kenyans. Personally I am convinced that the Kenyans who voted for them did so mostly in protest of the ICC case.
"Forgive" is not even the term many who voted for them might use. For them its a question of guilt and a sense that the ICC undertaking has largely been about tethering a few individuals for sacrifice rather than pursuing the truth.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 17:12:16 GMT 3
Abdulmote,
We shall find ourselves in such situations over and over again till we come to terms with the fact that things won't go the way we want them to, simply because we draft in our constitution, regulations and/procedures: we can write in our books how things will be done, how we shall relay outcomes from this medium to that and ultimately publish them, but if we do not test the whole system and confirm that it works, reality will catch up with us and we shall have to do things not the way we prescribed in our guidelines, but in the way that is feasible under the circumstances. We just have to wake up to the fact that "what floats is indeed built" I mean ... Ukiona vyaelea, vyaundwa. .. it does not float on word alone like our politicians seem to believe word makes things happen!
But on the issue of integrity of this election, I think the system is well guarded. The failure is only in the transmission mechanism, and again that is because of unrealistic preparation with an ambitious transmission infrastructure.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 16:47:30 GMT 3
Raila to address the press at Serena shortly. Could he be conceding? ;D ;D That's humorous!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 16:40:59 GMT 3
My suspicion is that misplaced but well filled votes are being counted. The official results are expressing much lower rejected votes than the unofficial ones, and it seems distinction of those boxes is really difficult, at least to some people. Long time ago we used to have boxes marked by wild animals which are easy to recognize. Whoever came up with colours needs some education. Next time we should go back to our smart past in that aspect. I remember in one course of "effective presentation" I learned that the human eye is good at telling apart 5 colours in a pattern, and compromised at above that threshold. In practice I have also received company brochures that had too many colour variations in figures, that the figures were unintelligible to me. How many colours did we have in this case, and how distinct can one colour be from another when you have the number of boxes we had in this case?? In one of the constituencies in either Bomet or Kericho, the number of rejected votes was as hjigh as +3000!!There was that episode they kept replaying of a colour blind voter being stranded as he faced the boxes, which to him were all same colour, and the officials were not being helpul enough - the officials seemed dismissive of his inability to tell colours, and were more judgemental than helpful. Whoever came with the idea of colours as the distinction should honestly get a thrashing on the bottoms ... like we used to get in secondary school for the slightest of mistakes. I can imagine the judging look my grandmother would have in her face if I tried to recruit her into voting by differentiating blue from green and purple. Again, just what happened with our elephants, giraffes, rhinos, etc, symbols my grandmother and her own grandmother would have had no difficulties with?
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 16:24:08 GMT 3
I took the liberty to check the presidential results for Runyenjes constituency, just picking at random one of the constituencies where the Vice-President has alleged the votes cast exceed the total number of registered voters, and this is what the eight presidential candidates garnered: Kiyiapi 176; Karua 330; Dida 89; Mudavadi 135; Muite 61; Kenneth 294; Raila 1,812; Uhuru 54,898. Now if you total the votes for all the candidates it comes to 57,795. This is against a registered voter population of 66,000. Therefore it appears there is no substance to what the vice-president is claiming on this particular issue. It really irritates for someone to make a claim that does not check out even at the most cursory inspection.
However, the issue of the rejected votes which stood at 330,000+ with less than half the votes tallied, but which have now mysteriously disappeared needs an explanation. I hope Isaack Hassan addresses the issue the next time he holds a press briefing. I suspect IEBC did the rational thing about misplaced but correctly filled ballots - it would be foolish to condemn ballots that colour blinds and people who are intimidated by the idea of identifying strange sounding colours from others (like my grandmother and her sister) placed in the wrong colour-coded box. To allege rigging just because rejected ballots have dwindled, before exploring this possibility, is too fast a leap! But hey, for some it is not a fair election unless they win - they said it before election, and now they are putting it into action ... again!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 16:05:24 GMT 3
I do not go by street rumors my friend, scan your evidence in here and let the membership make their own judgment. Otherwise you cannot makeup stuff and expect everyone to buy it as nothing but the truth. You are mistaken if you think you are my audience. I do not care one bit about convincing anybody and their mother. Soon wheat will be separated from chaff. There you go again! After you took only a half hour leave on your own prescription. If you are not looking for audience here, why do you post? You are such an irritant! This is our space, and we need it to stay clean. You have soiled it a lot in this thread and you should take back some of your uncouth language, .. like asking people to pull their rectums from I don't know where. Is pulling rectums another thing you are specially informed about, just like you are informed about the results? Again, you are an irritant and you need to take a leave!
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 15:36:52 GMT 3
Folks, I am out of here. Later. Enjoy the discussions. Good decision! In our private conversation yesterday I told you that you were taking issues too personally to be rational. What you have said on this thread has taken that behaviour to a whole new level. Take some rest and sober up.
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Post by mank on Mar 7, 2013 1:31:21 GMT 3
Wow! Its unfortunate that most of the guys arguing here about who had how many votes actually do not have intimate access to Jubilee or CORD tallies respectively. Notwithstanding...we have a few, who know the exact numbers of each candindate...for example RR. I cite RR because i am also privy to this information...
Listen...both CORD and Jubilee had their agents at all polling stations...hence each of them know how much each candidate attained
So let us not make so much noise, yet we have not the real information about the numbers Let us wait for the analogue count to come to an end...then we can prove each other wrong
Hint: Why are Jumbilee quarters jittery? If they claim popularity, they should be able to comfortably get the votes they already have, plus more during the Run Off. Hence ... and to borrow Miguna's cliche...they should say "Come, Run-Off, Come" Now if you say that you know the result, what does that suggest about the reason the results are not being exhaustively announced to the rest of us?
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Post by mank on Mar 6, 2013 23:28:16 GMT 3
My suspicion is that misplaced but well filled votes are being counted. The official results are expressing much lower rejected votes than the unofficial ones, and it seems distinction of those boxes is really difficult, at least to some people.
Long time ago we used to have boxes marked by wild animals which are easy to recognize. Whoever came up with colours needs some education. Next time we should go back to our smart past in that aspect.
I remember in one course of "effective presentation" I learned that the human eye is good at telling apart 5 colours in a pattern, and compromised at above that threshold. In practice I have also received company brochures that had too many colour variations in figures, that the figures were unintelligible to me. How many colours did we have in this case, and how distinct can one colour be from another when you have the number of boxes we had in this case??
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Post by mank on Mar 6, 2013 22:49:51 GMT 3
Bob,
Some people enjoy following these things the way you might enjoy a good novel, page by page yet you could flip to the end of the novel and see how everything ends. So let discussion continue - it won't alter the end for those who would rather keep quite and wait.
Folks, as you have noticed the Uhuru and Raila are taking almost 100% of the votes between themselves. They keep taking turns in taking the lion's share from consituency to another. With this alternation it is not all that surprising that the patterns look similar.
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Post by mank on Mar 6, 2013 21:49:11 GMT 3
I would not be interested to rig the system if I had access. However if I was to rig I would not rigi in a systematic style. I think programming the system to keep a particular pattern reflects lack of sophistication on the part of the riging party. However, what seems systematic could very easily, and most probably the authentic relationship of the votes.
It is not impossible for randomly reported results to reflect similar trends for the top 2 condidates in a tightly contested election. The good this is that we shalll know soon enough if the pattern is apparent in the official results.
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