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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 12:16:50 GMT 3
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Post by roughrider on Sept 14, 2005 12:32:10 GMT 3
Did I get you right? A revolution is only a revolution when it is a leftist one?
Anyway 'revolution' is only a word. No need being pedantic about this.
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 12:41:12 GMT 3
perhaps, wakwetu, you should re-read what i wrote instead of jumping to conclusions.
let me talk in my usual roundabout way.
supposing you have a sick relative in the hospital. you have just come home from seeing them. your siblings/parents, spouse etc ask you:
"so, roughrider, how is the patient?"
and you intone gravely:
"well, i am convinced that they are not going to make it. we may as well order the casket now, draft the tangazo of the upcoming kifo and hire farm hands to start chimbaring the kaburi."
mind you, you may be talking of someone who bruised their elbow after falling off a bicycle....
oo
to
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Post by roughrider on Sept 14, 2005 15:39:02 GMT 3
ok
The NO vote should: "Demonstrate the unpopularity of the Kibaki led NAK forces by defeating the Wako Draft"
True that. Except I hear they are planning to rig.
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Post by odp on Sept 14, 2005 18:13:48 GMT 3
N'Otiya,
If what OO writes and you observe concurs, then it will give us
Kenyans an opportunity to break nicely from sheepish mentality
inherited during the colonial past and carried to the post-colonial
era. In the sjambok era the chiefs, DOs etc. up to the top
always 'guided' the flock i.e. people were told do this or else and
like sheep put the head down (eyes down) and march to a future only
the shepherds knew.
This current constitution issue is the latest illustration of people
saying what they want and the shepherd deciding what to interpret
assuming the sheep (since they always have their eyes down), cannot
see where they are going and hence only the shepherd should guide
them, and the sjambok helps to assure they are meek.
Otherwise what OO says holds in that whatever change occurs is still a top to bottom led one. That is only those at the top may reap the biggest benefits while those at the bottom will once more have an opportunity to cast their eyes higher.
SMDC
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 18:30:48 GMT 3
From: ndunguk@...
Date: Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:19 am
Subject: Of Oranges, Banana Republics and Revolutions...
Ndugu Oloo,
Good piece. In agreeing with you and Jared on the subject of revolution,let me add two other ingredients that should exist for real Mapinduzi to happen:
1. Opportunity cost - in other words when the people have more to gain by change than in keeping the status quo, they will favor change. The reverse to this is when people have more to lose by not changing.
2. Psychological identification with the symbols of change - yaani when the reason and vision given for change is something people can identify with at a personal level, change will happen. Mind you, I am not talking bananas and oranges here.
Societies, like individuals, do not change for the sake of change.
From the above 2 points, I would suggest our biggest failure has been on the second one. Those talking about revolution are using the wrong symbol-the constitution - and seem to have no clear vision for the day after.
The constitution is an elitist instrument which few Kenyans understand or will ever read.
When I was home recently, I found it impossible to convince my semi-literate neighbor in Gichagi that a new katiba is very important. I still recall his pithy come back - Gatiba nguria kana nguikia ikuumbi (this Constitution you are telling me about, is it something I can eat or store to eat tomorrow?) But when I started talking about the price of milk, the state of roads, the cost of health care, the lack of jobs, suddenly we could communicate.
Those who would want to shape social change must learn to speak in the language of the masses; to address issues that touch the people directly.
I am sorry but the constitution is not it.
Have a good day.
Ndungu Kahihu
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 18:37:09 GMT 3
From: "nyakwarotiya" <nyakwarotiya@...>
Date: Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:39 am
Subject: Re: Of Oranges, Banana Republics and Revolutions..
oo wa montreal,
from my observation here in nairobi, and other parts of nyanza i have been to, i can say for sure that the mood for change is ripe.
yester night, i was watching news at one of u. nairobi`s halls of residence. recall that this is an institution that has a population from all corners of the country. the mood there is for change. the mood in the street is for change. yet, one thing which for sure you captured beyond all doubt, and i paraphrase, is this:
"It is possible for this national consensus to bring about a
fundamental democratic breakthrough that could set the stage for far reaching democratic reforms.
However, it will be simply over-reaching if we insisted that we are on the doorstep of a catacyclismic revolutionary upheaval in Kenya within the next two months."
wuod gem, you could not have put it any better.
n`otiya
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 19:50:08 GMT 3
From: Hamadi Boga <hamadiboga@...>
Date: Wed Sep 14, 2005 12:07 pm
Subject: Re: [KOL] Of Oranges, Banana Republics and Revolutions
Ndungu K,
you mean up to now you have not figured out the relationship between a constitution and the quality of life people lead. i.e. constitution and ugali, bread, roads etc.
Don't you see a direct link between the constitution and the allocation of resources to build those roads and provide services. my people..in kwale see a direct link. They know that their impontence in the titanium mining issue is directly linked to the deficiency of the current constitution. They also know that the reason why they are not benefiting from the beach Hotels also has to do with the constitution. They also know that the land problems in their neighbourhoods and why they have remained squatters has to do with the constitution. They know..that their way of life...going to the Kadhi for marriage or devorce..which they had practiced even before the entity kenya came into existance...has continued to be part of their every day life because of the constitution. They know the reason why strangers can come and administer their land (Land officers) and public matters (DCs and DOs) has to do with the constitution.
So I disgree with your statement respectfully. It is the constitution Stupid! When Moi was president ..it was the constitution. What has changed? This is why Fr Awuor..was wrong..in his piece about the death of intellectualism in central province? Intellectualism is not dead in Central province. The current support for the Wako draft in central provice is based on sound reasoning. Mwai wa Kibaki is the king so its OK for the presidency to be powerfull and ALL Mighty. Tomorrow will take care of itself.
I think we should learn from people in central province..and not shy away from thinking about what is good for our individual communities first. At the moment it is OK.....for central province to stand to a man behind the Wako draft (read behind Kibaki). When Kibaki is gone..they are free to change their minds. its part of intellectual freedom..the freedom to change your mind. So every community..should just look at the constitution...and take a position....even an illogical one. Life will provide them with an opportunity to change their minds.
Hamadi
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 22:43:43 GMT 3
From: ndunguk@...
Date: Wed Sep 14, 2005 2:05 pm
Subject: Re: [KOL] Of Oranges, Banana Republics and Revolutions
Ndugu Hamadi,
On the importance of the constitution, I will fully agree with you. It is very important that our nation’s people negotiate a new instrument by which we shall govern our affairs.
On your insistence that the people of Kwale share this same belief, I must respectfully disagree. My observation of Kenyans is that there is a major disconnect between the leaders and the led. We think, for instance that because we use terms like ‘Wanjiku's constitution, or spend days strategizing about oranges and bananas, that the majority of poor rural Kenyans are moved by the same concerns. We are deluding ourselves.
From conversations I have had with many people, I would say the questions that keep poor Kenyans awake at night are more prosaic, to do with survival: what to feed their children, how to pay for medicine in this era of cost sharing, how to get a school for that son or daughter who is completing 8.4.4 etc. I agree that all this has something to do with a good constitution, but even I, with my benefit of education and global exposure have my doubts.
Therefore claiming that all of your people in Kwale have made the same connection and suddenly jettisoned their past priorities as a result is a major stretch.
I know this is an emotionally charged time in our history but let us be realistic. When people come to public meetings or take part in demonstrations, they are not always doing so because they agree with us.
Politicians provide great comic entertainment for one. Sometimes tangible money changes hands. In other cases there is some hope that the real problems participants face will somehow get addressed by taking part – not because the issues we define for them suddenly supplant the very real ones they face in their lives. None of this describes the kind of conditions on which revolutions are launched.
I maintain that those who want to change Kenya must learn to have real conversations with Kenyans.
Conversations that will connect the people’s problems with whatever schemes the elite are now prescribing to solve them, assuming that is the way we want to go. This entire Katiba debate has largely failed on this count. If it had not we not be facing the scaring ‘winner take all’ precipice we are at today. Constitution making is a game of consensus creation, not zero sum brinkmanship.
Have a good day
Ndungu
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 14, 2005 23:22:54 GMT 3
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 15, 2005 1:28:32 GMT 3
Message 15415 of 15415
From: "otwomad" <Otwomad@...>
Date: Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:54 pm
Subject: Re: [KOL] Of Oranges, Banana Republics and Revolutions..
Marafiki,
I think Nd. Ndugu has a better feel at the pulse of the common mwananchi than Nd. Hamadi. However, each has his stronger opposite dialectic argument and that is my interest in this response.
When Hamadi says we should learn from Central Province it reminds me of my hosts here in Austria and Germany. Both countries have different sub-ethnic groups (like the Luhya or MijiKenda in Kenya) and each guard its turf fiercely. What they (Austrians and Germans) have that we do not is a constitution that makes their countries have devolvedpowers i.e. President is ceremonial and partyless heads the State, Chancellor (similar to Prime Minister) heads the government and comes from the strongest party or that able to form the coalition with most
members, and additionally they have regional governments representing virtually the sub-ethnic groups.
So what Hamadi says as concerns the Central people knowing where there bread is buttered is even a stronger incentive in Kenya where to have the seat of main power from your own should command all intellectually activity aimed at preserving that status quo.
Where Ndugu is stronger is his assertion that the dialogue occurring is not between the masses and their leaders, but more of manipulation.
Most issues that matter to most Kenyans whether the Digo's of south coast, Kikuyus of central or Bukusus of western Kenya is survival.
And the constitution is not what will assure that (neither the old nor the proposed new one). Productive ventures assuring cash in massess pockets, schools for their children, affordable and available healthcare, etc. is more important than the most eloquent constitution. The best outcome from the current happennings may be the
awakening of critical consciousness through the investigation of "generative themes", as the Brazilian educator the late Paulo Freire narrated. If that occurs we stand having an opportunity to move from what ails us to how to solve the problem.
Dreaming or rather wishful thinking land justice will come to pass to the Coastals (mainly Taitas, Digos and Giriamas to become non-squatters in their ancestral land) if a constitution is in place is neither here nor there. Let us not delude ourselves, especially those who are less on survival tenterhooks. If the affected coastals do not form a strong lobby to demand land justice or alternatively
acquire money (either cooperatively or by any other means necessary) to purchase those lands (after all most wabaras and Europeans, mainly Italians, Britons and Germans are buying those lands with money) they
will continue being squatters.
Also imagining that the winner take it all is the only acceptable method of governing ourselves and without it a catastrophic eventuality will befall us is neither here nor there. It will only result in mark timing at best and regression at worst. The Rwanda scenario will not play out in Kenya since the ones who stand to suffer most are the descendants of central followed by nyanza and western
provinces. And even taken as the percentage of Kenya's population, neither commands a controlling majority nor are they capable of forging an alliance strong enough to have 50% of the total population. With time consensus will triumph.
Otwoma
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Post by kamalet on Sept 15, 2005 18:36:48 GMT 3
Ndung'u's assessment of the situation is spot on.
The reason I disagree with Hamadi about people of central province backing the document is his suggestion that this is driven by tribe and not reason. There will be people who will see it only on the basis that voting yes appears to support Kibaki.But a lot of us know that this document is not about Kibaki, and I have personally preferred to argue with the document in hand shunting all other agendas aside.
My sincere hope is that this is not the political game being played with the constitution by our so called leaders, for the constitution must be beyond today's politicians.
But will Kenyans ever learn? I do not think so!
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 15, 2005 19:32:16 GMT 3
A Revolution does not have to fit Marxist/ Leninist definition
From: Kichwa Mbaya - Thu, Sep 15, 9:27 AM
A revolution as an English word means among other things,"any fundamental change or reversal of conditions". Now, people may disagree as to whether things will fundamentaly change or whether conditions will be reversed. However, in this narrow particular instance, Kenya has a history where the government, colonial/Kenyatta/Moi/Kibaki governments has gotten whatever they wanted. The conventional wisdom therefore is that the government has the resources to persuade, force, cheat, steal, buy, sell intimidate,etc. to get this constitution passed.
If the people are able to reverse this condition of David v. Goliath and the NO vote carries the day then one can argue that a fundamental change has occured and therefore a revolution. I think it is wrong to limit the defination of revolution only to the Marxist/Leninist context.
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 15, 2005 20:12:41 GMT 3
"Kichwa Mbaya":
I do not post where you post but since you are responding to something I said where you do not post, I am pretty sure that by some process of cyberosmosis you will be able to also read this response by and by.
First of all, I totally agree with you that there are many, many types of revolutions, not just "Marxist ones". Actually, strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a "Marxist Revolution". Marxism is a guide to action, a tool of analysis, an ideological framework, whereas revolutions are actually events in time-space.
In the past there have been slave revolutions- like the one which took place in Haiti in 1804; there have been Capitalist Revolutions, like the ones which took place in England in 1688; in France in 1789 and in the United States starting from 1776.
You also have socialist revolutions like the ones that took place in the Soviet Union in 1917, Vietnam in 1945 and again in 1975; in China in 1949 and in Cuba in 1959.
You have popular-democratic revolutions like the ones which took place in Portugal in 1974, Ethiopia the same year, Grenada in 1979, Nicaragua the same year and Burkina Faso in 1983. Many Venezuelans believe that their leader, Hugo Chavez is a revolutionary guided by the ideals of the 19th Century Latin American hero, Simon Bolivar.
There are people who argue that when Egyptian military officers led by Abdel Gamal Nasser overthrew the King in 1952 they carried out a nationalist revolution; Ghadafi has called his 1969 seizure of power as a Green Revolution and so on and so forth.
To my mind, there have to be at least four ingredients which must be present in a revolution:
1. The capture of state power;
2. The involvement of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people in this social eruption, mass upheaval; in other words, a coup de tat is NOT a revolution;
3. A clear program to make a clean break with the past ;
4. A conscious attempt to build new political, social, economic, cultural and other relations and realities after that capture of state power;
Now let us look at the November 21 Referendum:
(a)Unless there is something the NO side is not telling us, as far as I know the referendum will NOT end in the capturing of state power by anyone- one faction in the NO side is PART of the government- they can hardly "overthrow" themselves. Also in class and ideological terms, there is NO difference between KANU, NAK, LDP, Ford Kenya and Ford People- they are all fractions of the same petit-bourgeois/comprador bourgeois nyaparas managing the neo-colonial state of Kenya on behalf of international monopoly finance capital.
(b) The Kenyan masses, the wananchi will be caught up in a fervent ferment for sure, but it will be in the contest between the Yes and No teams- we are probably going to end up with an outcome which is more like 52/48; 55/45 rather than the kind of lopsided NARC victory over KANU in 2002. In this case we are looking at a post referendum Kenya where the mainstream politicians would have succeeded in dividing Kenyans along ethnic as opposed to ideological fault lines. But guess what? The ahoi in Central Kenya will still be landless and the big land owners in Rift Valley will still be investing in flower farms leaving all the class struggles intact.
(c) There will a cabinet meeting on the week following the referendum presided over by Mwai Kibaki and attended by Kiraitu, Raila, Nyachae, Anyang Nyongo, Moody Awori, Balala, Ngilu, Kalonzo, Michuki, Ayacko, Karume and Dzoro. In other words, the Kenya government will not fall.
(d) Most definitely there WILL BE NO NEW POLICIES to deal with unemployment, rape, violence against women, marginalization of minority groups, crime, housing, privatization of water or standing up against Uncle Sam. The neo-colonial status quo will therefore remain intact.
Given my arguments above, there clearly is NO BASIS for talking about Orange or Banana Revolutions of any kind. In fact it is not only reckless and irresponsible, it is dishonest to hoodwink the wananchi that if they vote this way or that way, their lives will be drastically different by Christmas Day, 2005.
Well, I know that my views are not always among the most popular- but I prefer speaking my mind rather than joining any kind of bandwagon. I understand that people are caught up in the emotions of the Referendum Campaign- but it is precisely for that reason that one must have a very cool head on one's shoulders right at this moment.
Onyango Oloo
Toronto
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Post by mugogo on Sept 16, 2005 5:04:46 GMT 3
Sisi watu wa pwani we've been too marginalised bwana. We wanted the power devolved the Bomas way. I really did not care if we had a PM or President. Sasa sijui hawa Mungatana na kina Dzoro watakaje...hmm? Just like in the US the small states are represented by two members regardless how big the state is but the bigger states get their leverage by having more congressional seats. Why cant we have this kind of devolution and a powerful president or not so powerful president?  |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Sept 16, 2005 16:09:16 GMT 3
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