Post by tactician on Sept 14, 2010 16:29:35 GMT 3
Why Ruto will be a major player in 2012
By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, September 11 2010 at 11:47
In Summary
Votepower: Mr Ruto knows that he sits atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes
The Kenyan state does not do well without a “villain”. The colonialists had Dedan Kimathi. Mzee Jomo Kenyatta was dogged by J.M. Kariuki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. President Daniel arap Moi was harassed by many opponents among them Raila Odinga, Paul Muite, Willy Mutunga, and an army of Young Turks.
President Mwai Kibaki had to contend with Mr Odinga until the Constitution brought them together.
But Mr Odinga, the long-term opposition doyen, is now an “insider”.
My crystal ball tells me that Higher Education minister William Ruto is Kenya’s next “villain”. He is the next anti-Raila “Raila”.
Give the devil his due. Except Mr Odinga and Githugu MP Martha Karua, none of those seeking the presidency has more guts than Mr Ruto.
He may have an edge over the other two. He is cold-hearted and utterly sure of himself.
Unlike Mr Odinga and Ms Karua, Mr Ruto cannot be accused of being a democrat. He has spent his adult life subverting the democratic project.
But he cloaks himself in the language of democracy better than any of his opponents.
He has more oomph than Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. He will be a major player in 2012.
The run for State House is not for the faint-hearted, or the weak-kneed. One must have a killer’s instinct.
Or, like President Kibaki and Nikita Khrushchev, the late Soviet leader, be supremely cunning. Unlike his competitors, Mr Ruto is both cunning and ruthless.
He is a rare combination of Mr Kibaki and Mr Khrushchev. It helps to be a spiritual or religious zealot. Mr Khrushchev was a sworn atheist, while Mr Kibaki is a devout Catholic. Mr Ruto is a religious Christian fundamentalist, a faith he shares with Mr Musyoka.
But unlike Mr Musyoka, Mr Ruto treats religion as his servant, not master. Everything starts and ends with Mr Ruto. He is totally self-absorbed.
Mr Ruto is the alpha and omega of his universe. This dedication to self -- the “I, me, and myself” philosophy -- is the hallmark of highly successful politicians. It is the “it” that separates mere mortals from the “also-rans”.
I have concluded that Mr Ruto possesses the “it”. I had been reluctant to do so because Mr Ruto is obnoxious. Even when he makes a brilliant point, I want to disagree with him because of the smirk on his face. He is not endearing. Nor is he cuddly.
But by dint of sheer persistence, he has developed a cult following. There are “Ruto-nuts” – fanatics – who would do anything for the man. Only Mr Odinga outranks him in the number of Kenyans who would follow him off a cliff.
My point is that Mr Ruto is not of the “middling” sort. He has a messianic complex born of service to self and to Jesus. He can go toe to toe, mano-a-mano, with the best of them.
He politically vanquished former President Daniel arap Moi and forced the former head of state to follow him among the Kalenjin.
That was a tall order given Mr Moi’s lore among the Kalenjin and his enormous wealth.
This was an amazing feat by Mr Ruto when you consider that the entire Kalenjin elite – including himself – are Mr Moi’s handiwork.
Without Mr Moi, the entire Kalenjin elite would not exist. But Mr Ruto bid his time and, like a cobra, struck Mr Moi at the right time.
He exploited Mr Moi’s coziness to President Kibaki and the Kikuyu elite to discredit him among the Kalenjin.
In 2007, Mr Ruto saw his opening and threw his weight behind Mr Odinga and ODM. This is how he “politically finished” Mr Moi and his sons.
No sooner had Mr Ruto buried Mr Moi than he turned his sword on Mr Odinga.
He knows that he sits comfortably atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes. Mr Ruto believes that it was Kalenjin votes and blood that brought Mr Odinga within a whisker of State House.
But Mr Odinga is having none of it, and has called Mr Ruto’s bluff. Not to be outflanked, Mr Ruto has courted Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta to form the KKK alliance.
Given Kenya’s tribal arithmetic, Mr Ruto believes that one of the KKK trio – and not Mr Odinga – will end up in State House in 2012.
Is Mr Ruto right, or is he hallucinating? I do not believe that Mr Ruto is completely in “la la” land.
We know that a solid KKK bloc would be nearly impossible to beat at the polls. The only question is who the bloc’s flag bearer would be. Mr Kenyatta is out because a Kikuyu is not going to sell in 2012.
This pits Mr Musyoka against Mr Ruto. Of the two, I like Mr Ruto’s chances. This is why. Mr Ruto is more likely to cut a deal with Mr Kenyatta as his running mate because of the size of the Kikuyu vote. Mr Ruto can promise the Kikuyu peace in the Rift Valley if Mr Kenyatta backs him.
Both he and Mr Kenyatta may find solidarity because Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, may come calling. Misery loves company.
Mr Musyoka is going to be the odd man out. He could join the Ruto-Kenyatta bandwagon, go it alone, or go back to Mr Odinga. Mr Ruto played kingmaker to Mr Odinga in 2007.
But he did so with an eye for the top seat, not to become a perpetual kingmaker. That’s why he may go for the whole kit and caboodle in 2012.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC
By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, September 11 2010 at 11:47
In Summary
Votepower: Mr Ruto knows that he sits atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes
The Kenyan state does not do well without a “villain”. The colonialists had Dedan Kimathi. Mzee Jomo Kenyatta was dogged by J.M. Kariuki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. President Daniel arap Moi was harassed by many opponents among them Raila Odinga, Paul Muite, Willy Mutunga, and an army of Young Turks.
President Mwai Kibaki had to contend with Mr Odinga until the Constitution brought them together.
But Mr Odinga, the long-term opposition doyen, is now an “insider”.
My crystal ball tells me that Higher Education minister William Ruto is Kenya’s next “villain”. He is the next anti-Raila “Raila”.
Give the devil his due. Except Mr Odinga and Githugu MP Martha Karua, none of those seeking the presidency has more guts than Mr Ruto.
He may have an edge over the other two. He is cold-hearted and utterly sure of himself.
Unlike Mr Odinga and Ms Karua, Mr Ruto cannot be accused of being a democrat. He has spent his adult life subverting the democratic project.
But he cloaks himself in the language of democracy better than any of his opponents.
He has more oomph than Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. He will be a major player in 2012.
The run for State House is not for the faint-hearted, or the weak-kneed. One must have a killer’s instinct.
Or, like President Kibaki and Nikita Khrushchev, the late Soviet leader, be supremely cunning. Unlike his competitors, Mr Ruto is both cunning and ruthless.
He is a rare combination of Mr Kibaki and Mr Khrushchev. It helps to be a spiritual or religious zealot. Mr Khrushchev was a sworn atheist, while Mr Kibaki is a devout Catholic. Mr Ruto is a religious Christian fundamentalist, a faith he shares with Mr Musyoka.
But unlike Mr Musyoka, Mr Ruto treats religion as his servant, not master. Everything starts and ends with Mr Ruto. He is totally self-absorbed.
Mr Ruto is the alpha and omega of his universe. This dedication to self -- the “I, me, and myself” philosophy -- is the hallmark of highly successful politicians. It is the “it” that separates mere mortals from the “also-rans”.
I have concluded that Mr Ruto possesses the “it”. I had been reluctant to do so because Mr Ruto is obnoxious. Even when he makes a brilliant point, I want to disagree with him because of the smirk on his face. He is not endearing. Nor is he cuddly.
But by dint of sheer persistence, he has developed a cult following. There are “Ruto-nuts” – fanatics – who would do anything for the man. Only Mr Odinga outranks him in the number of Kenyans who would follow him off a cliff.
My point is that Mr Ruto is not of the “middling” sort. He has a messianic complex born of service to self and to Jesus. He can go toe to toe, mano-a-mano, with the best of them.
He politically vanquished former President Daniel arap Moi and forced the former head of state to follow him among the Kalenjin.
That was a tall order given Mr Moi’s lore among the Kalenjin and his enormous wealth.
This was an amazing feat by Mr Ruto when you consider that the entire Kalenjin elite – including himself – are Mr Moi’s handiwork.
Without Mr Moi, the entire Kalenjin elite would not exist. But Mr Ruto bid his time and, like a cobra, struck Mr Moi at the right time.
He exploited Mr Moi’s coziness to President Kibaki and the Kikuyu elite to discredit him among the Kalenjin.
In 2007, Mr Ruto saw his opening and threw his weight behind Mr Odinga and ODM. This is how he “politically finished” Mr Moi and his sons.
No sooner had Mr Ruto buried Mr Moi than he turned his sword on Mr Odinga.
He knows that he sits comfortably atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes. Mr Ruto believes that it was Kalenjin votes and blood that brought Mr Odinga within a whisker of State House.
But Mr Odinga is having none of it, and has called Mr Ruto’s bluff. Not to be outflanked, Mr Ruto has courted Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta to form the KKK alliance.
Given Kenya’s tribal arithmetic, Mr Ruto believes that one of the KKK trio – and not Mr Odinga – will end up in State House in 2012.
Is Mr Ruto right, or is he hallucinating? I do not believe that Mr Ruto is completely in “la la” land.
We know that a solid KKK bloc would be nearly impossible to beat at the polls. The only question is who the bloc’s flag bearer would be. Mr Kenyatta is out because a Kikuyu is not going to sell in 2012.
This pits Mr Musyoka against Mr Ruto. Of the two, I like Mr Ruto’s chances. This is why. Mr Ruto is more likely to cut a deal with Mr Kenyatta as his running mate because of the size of the Kikuyu vote. Mr Ruto can promise the Kikuyu peace in the Rift Valley if Mr Kenyatta backs him.
Both he and Mr Kenyatta may find solidarity because Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, may come calling. Misery loves company.
Mr Musyoka is going to be the odd man out. He could join the Ruto-Kenyatta bandwagon, go it alone, or go back to Mr Odinga. Mr Ruto played kingmaker to Mr Odinga in 2007.
But he did so with an eye for the top seat, not to become a perpetual kingmaker. That’s why he may go for the whole kit and caboodle in 2012.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC
