Why ODM could be headed to dustbin of history

[mosop]

In Prime Minister Raila Odinga, ODM has Kenya’s most dynamic and electrifying politician. Yet the party may be headed for extinction.

Which begs the question — why is the party that almost won it all in 2007 seemingly bound for the morgue?

The party is being cannibalised by both centripetal and centrifugal forces. My crystal ball tells me — and you can take this to the bank — that ODM will be dead within a year unless Mr Odinga completely reinvents it. But that’s easier said than done.

As the centre of ODM’s gravity, Mr Odinga must now think like a true revolutionary and slay its demons. I believe there are four reasons — some benign, others malignant — why ODM could soon die.

Let me get the bad news out of the way. The first reason ODM could go six feet under has to do with perception. History tells us that politics is primarily a “beauty contest”.

In a democracy, the most seductive party carries the day. Parties with great platforms — but boring or arrogant public relations images — don’t win elections.

As a party, ODM’s image has become repellant. Its secretariat — headed by Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o — seems opaque, undemocratic and arrogant.

“Party decisions” are individualised and Mafia-like — not collective. Internal democracy seems alien to ODM. The lack of party elections adds to opacity and the lack of transparency. How can a party that claims to be reformist be so Mubarak-like?

Why has ODM — headed by the country’s most colourful and magnetic politician — become so ugly? This brings me to the second reason why ODM could become history. The party that carried six out of eight provinces in 2007 now looks decidedly tribal.

It has lost massive support in the Rift Valley, Coast, North Eastern and Nairobi provinces. ODM now has only a tenuous hold over Western province. That means it only enjoys overwhelming support in Nyanza — among the Luo.

Apart from Mr Odinga, the three people perceived to be most powerful in ODM are all Luo — Prof Nyong’o, Lands minister James Orengo and lawyer Miguna Miguna, the PM’s “senior adviser”. Whether or not this trio is of good men is immaterial.

It doesn’t help matters that the two other “loud pro-Odinga voices” within ODM are also Luo — ODM Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo and Immigration minister Otieno Kajwang. I am afraid Mr Odinga’s charisma has been blighted by those close to him.

Inner cabal

To the public, it seems that Mr Odinga has surrounded himself with an inner cabal of Luo confidantes. His only close senior non-Luo ally is Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

But, quite frankly, Mr Mudavadi doesn’t seem to be a true insider. Water minister Charity Ngilu, once a big ODM voice, has been stilled.

Tourism minister Najib Balala has become a mortal enemy. Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Mr Odinga’s key ODM foe, cannot wait to decapitate his boss.

Why Mr Odinga has allowed ODM to be perceived as a “Luo party” beats me. It’s counter-intuitive for a man who is clearly a nationalist and one of only two — the other being Gichugu MP Martha Karua — leading progressive presidential candidates.

Since his days at NDP, Mr Odinga has successfully worked to shed the image of a “Luo leader”. His stand on matters of national importance — among them the Mau Complex and the trials of The Hague Six — made him a statesman.

In contrast, the PNU/KKK leadership is pursuing a manifestly tribal strategy to win the 2012 elections. But how can Mr Odinga distinguish himself and ODM from the PNU/KKK alliance if his advisers and party are mono-tribal?

The third reason ODM could be consigned to the dustbin of history is its proclivity for opportunism, double-speak, and inconsistency on important questions.
This has been poignant in the case of the Ocampo Six. ODM — and sometimes Mr Odinga himself — has been mealy-mouthed.

Today the party supports The Hague trials and opposes “deferral”, but tomorrow it asks for a so-called “referral”. This is feckless and inexcusable. Either ODM supports The Hague trials or it doesn’t. There is no “in-between”.

Nor is it defensible for the party to raise funds to defend Mr Ruto, Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, and journalist Joshua arap Sang’ to pander to Kalenjin voters. That’s what the word opportunism was invented to describe.

The fourth reason ODM could explode is one name — Ruto. Mr Ruto is to Mr Odinga and ODM what Mr Odinga was to Kanu and later Narc. He is a one-man wrecking crew. He has alienated the Kalenjin from ODM and Mr Odinga.

He has shamelessly teamed up with his former nemesis in PNU — especially Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta — and VP Kalonzo Musyoka to form the PNU/KKK alliance to kill ODM and Mr Odinga’s chances in 2012.

He has “inserted himself” between President Mwai Kibaki and Mr Odinga. Most importantly, he may implicate ODM and Mr Odinga at The Hague trials. That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

I don’t deny that political parties in Kenya face long odds. Tribalism is a cancer that dogs all of them. Nor is it easy for progressives and reformers to shoot straight in Kenya and remain relevant politically. Politics is about the art of compromise. No party can be purist and win elections. To play politics is to “be dirty”.

Mr Odinga and ODM must avoid the “worst cancers” of Kenyan politics if they are to stay alive and remain progressive.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.

www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Why+ODM+could+be+headed+to+dustbin+of+history+/-/440808/1137610/-/item/1/-/on4ibfz/-/index.html

[politicalmaniac]

Another stupid incoherent poorly written article by this guy.

ODM and the Rt Hon Prime Minister has been against deferral and for referral for as long as this ICC issue has been around

And what does this guy mean by this ; -
Most importantly, he may implicate ODM and Mr Odinga at The Hague trials. That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

How about muthaura? He wont implicate the sloth lame duck P.O.R.K? Huyu jamaa ana ushenzi mob sana!

How will expelling ruto from ODM change the trajectory of anything involving the ICC? What has ruto got now, that he has to wait until the Hague trials to reveal about the purported role of the Rt Hon Prime Minister as to the genesis of the PEV?

I will ignore the ignoramus's assertions about who surrounds the Rt Hon Prime Minister, and whether or not ODM is a Luo party blah blah blah.

Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=5244#ixzz1IOIZnWce

[job]

In Prime Minister Raila Odinga, ODM has Kenya’s most dynamic and electrifying politician. Yet the party may be headed for extinction.

The party is being cannibalised by both centripetal and centrifugal forces. My crystal ball tells me — and you can take this to the bank — that ODM will be dead within a year unless Mr Odinga completely reinvents it.

Mutua needs to be reminded that ODM is not Raila's property. It belongs to the people. It is thus not upon Raila, but ODM's entire membership, to set its course.


That same membership is acutely aware of ODM's attempted cannabalization by the PNU-wing in government. From selective witch hunts of its key officials like Kosgey, Ngilu, Mudavadi et al., to the coerced hiring of its deputy leader William Ruto to wreck it from within. This ain't news! Has all that left us with a great alternative in PNU? I guess polls (of people) don't show that to be the case.

In a democracy, the most seductive party carries the day. Parties with great platforms — but boring or arrogant public relations images — don’t win elections.

As a party, ODM’s image has become repellant. Its secretariat — headed by Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o — seems opaque, undemocratic and arrogant.

For the record, I don't have a problem with this statement! Perception counts, and sure Nyong'o et al., have created a perception that is arrogant and casually dismissive (or less accomodating) of a broad diversity of views. I was among the first to call for a change of guard at the secretariat.


I'm more interested in seeing ODM have a more sensitive, accomodating, youthful, and vibrant spokesperson - not a hawkish ideologue or arrogant communicator!


I would wish an end be put immediately to this habit of Nyong'o, Jakoyo or whoever, unilaterally running to the press carrying the ODM banner, to contradict collective party decisions. It is stupid and must be punished - of course by the members. We shall do that!


On the issue of ODM press statements - why can't these be made collectively during meetings, to avoid any ambuiguity created later by a few drafters?

Lastly, Mutua attempts to mischaracterize ODM's position regarding the handling of PEV in a quite disingenuous way. ODM has consistently said - either a credible local tribunal or the Hague. If the State can create the former, that would require support for a referral. I wonder why Prof. Mutua is pretending not to comprehend this simple stance. There's no double-speak or in-betweens in this straight-forward position.


Regarding gestures like fund-raising for ODM party members involved in PEV. Mutua had better make up his mind. Either he continues blaming ODM for being "dictatorial" or accepts the reality that ODM can be democratically persuaded by some of its members to undertake certain internal things - which don't alter the party's fundamental position on issues like Justice.

That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

For Mutua to write the statement above, then follow it with this paragraph below is quite a show of an acrobatic flip-flop:

Nor is it easy for progressives and reformers to shoot straight in Kenya and remain relevant politically. Politics is about the art of compromise. No party can be purist and win elections. To play politics is to “be dirty”.

Mr Odinga and ODM must avoid the “worst cancers” of Kenyan politics if they are to stay alive and remain progressive.

[kamalet]

Apr 2, 2011 21:18:38 GMT 3 politicalmaniac said:

Another stupid incoherent poorly written article by this guy.

ODM and the Rt Hon Prime Minister has been against deferral and for referral for as long as this ICC issue has been around

And what does this guy mean by this ; -
Most importantly, he may implicate ODM and Mr Odinga at The Hague trials. That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

How about muthaura? He wont implicate the sloth lame duck P.O.R.K? Huyu jamaa ana ushenzi mob sana!

How will expelling ruto from ODM change the trajectory of anything involving the ICC? What has ruto got now, that he has to wait until the Hague trials to reveal about the purported role of the Rt Hon Prime Minister as to the genesis of the PEV?

I will ignore the ignoramus's assertions about who surrounds the Rt Hon Prime Minister, and whether or not ODM is a Luo party blah blah blah.

Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=5244#ixzz1IOIZnWce

When it comes to loyalty, Makau is right that Ruto could implicate Raila. On the other hand, Muthaura is just too loyal to implicate his boss.

So when you consider that the ICC claims to go for those with the greatest responsibility, Muthaura can easily die for his boss, bit it is like a dream imagining that Ruto will not easily and with glee give the evidence that shows that Raila may have had more responsibility than him.

.....and please do not remind me that Ocampo summoned Ruto and not Raila!

[kipfirimbi]

Apr 4, 2011 8:22:36 GMT 3 kamalet said:

Apr 2, 2011 21:18:38 GMT 3 politicalmaniac said:

Another stupid incoherent poorly written article by this guy.

ODM and the Rt Hon Prime Minister has been against deferral and for referral for as long as this ICC issue has been around

And what does this guy mean by this ; -
Most importantly, he may implicate ODM and Mr Odinga at The Hague trials. That’s why Mr Odinga must expel Mr Ruto from ODM pronto — otherwise he’ll deeply regret it.

How about muthaura? He wont implicate the sloth lame duck P.O.R.K? Huyu jamaa ana ushenzi mob sana!

How will expelling ruto from ODM change the trajectory of anything involving the ICC? What has ruto got now, that he has to wait until the Hague trials to reveal about the purported role of the Rt Hon Prime Minister as to the genesis of the PEV?

I will ignore the ignoramus's assertions about who surrounds the Rt Hon Prime Minister, and whether or not ODM is a Luo party blah blah blah.

Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=5244#ixzz1IOIZnWce

When it comes to loyalty, Makau is right that Ruto could implicate Raila. On the other hand, Muthaura is just too loyal to implicate his boss.

So when you consider that the ICC claims to go for those with the greatest responsibility, Muthaura can easily die for his boss, bit it is like a dream imagining that Ruto will not easily and with glee give the evidence that shows that Raila may have had more responsibility than him.

.....and please do not remind me that Ocampo summoned Ruto and not Raila!

Ruto would implicate Raila with glee if he had anything on the man any given day and he would do it with luxury of excess.

But wait not so fast amigo what evidence be that be, that he may not have shared with Ocampo already that will tame his nemesis with finality?

These are the kind of far fetched dreams PNU likes to peddle the dream that Ruto may and will implicate Raila. The kind of dreams they “Uhuruto” keeps feeding the gullible that they will go to hague tell the truth come back and so that the "real" culprit (read Raila) be brought to book Unless they are referring to another real "culprit"(read Kibaki) . Either way great, we want them to implicate the people with the highest responsibility something that is already implied anyway. Lest we forget the Muthaura tape is signs of man willing to talk to save own ass!! and that is before things start moving, imagine when the trial begins??. Did someone say Muthaura can easily die for his boss. dream man, the guy is already talking!!

If Ruto and or PNU had a sniff or an iota of anything to plant on their nemesis, we all know the Raila bashing would have been to reduced to something else we cant describe here. All we hear is hogwash in the name of MASS ACTION PROTESTS (only in Kenya)

To the contrary to what you and the others want to believe Muthaura and or even Uhuru could easily implicate the man with the highest responsibility. Lets watch the drama unfold and revisit these hypothesis one day! Everyone in Kenya by now knows what happened in Statehouse in 2007/2008 in regards to PEV. Ocampo included!Truth be told!

[destiny]

Politics has a lot to do with perception and Mutua is right that ODM is of late being perceived as a Jaruo party. When one thinks about top ODM brass, the people who quickly come to mind are RAO, Jakowo, Orengo, Nyongo, Miguna, Caroli and Raila's bro (forgot his name) who is quietly tucked at Treasury where he and Uhuru are busy making computer errors.

They are the same usual suspects who are quickly wheeled out to counter attack the tribal matusis coming from the KKK rallies if Raila doesn't answer them in his Kibera stronghold. Perhaps this is why reformists and anti impunity crusaders like Imanyara, Khalwalwe and Martha are shying away from any sort of association with Orange "Democratic" Movement.

Prof Mutua also hits the nail on the head when he says ODM secretariat is insensitive, arrogant and out of touch. Even Phil has admitted as much right here. Time for Raila kufurusha this people. He needs, desperately to inject new and fresh blood into this once formidable machine. Doing otherwise is living in denial!

[mangai]

I also hold the strong view that Raila (for without him ODM will be no more) needs to change tact. In the last elections, he put forward a team of players and think tank to run a very successful and well organised presidential campaign that captured the minds and aspirations of many.

I wonder where that team disappeared to. Even Salim Lone is nowadays loped in when things appear to be thick on the part of Raila.

Raila's nemesis are busy campaigning and tarnishing his name with all manner of accusations on how he has conspired to ship the PEV suspects to the Hague. They claim they have him cornered and are now ready to go for the kill. Some even claim since ODM was formed on the euphoria of 2005 referendum they also want to use the tribulations facing the six to build a momentum that they hope will result in a new political movement to catapult them to leadership come 2012. The never tire to remind people how 'our' forefathers fought for our sovereignty only for the same colonial masters to attempt to try our 'sons'.

In all this propaganda, ODM has not come out with a clear and effective strategy to counter the lies. There lies the danger for, believe you me, there are guys out there who are buying the lies and in the process dumping ODM for the yet to be formed 'Hague Party of Kenya'.

In a radical shift, Raila could as well change from his pro-reform platform to a more liberal politician.

I have tried to analyse the history of a number of politicians who have in the past dedicated most of their time 'fighting' for ordinary people's rights. Their attempts to the country's top positions of governance have not been that rosy and they end up as 'losing'. Those positions have in most occasions been occupied by people who had been in the past branded as anti reformers.

The only few reformers still in the key positions of governance must have in one time had to drop those 'credentials'. I have in mind people like Prof. Kivutha Kibwana, Kiraitu Murungi, Koigi wa Wamwere, Martha Karua and Paul Muite (the latter two's case of keen interest after failing out again with the powers that be).

Kindly reflect on what top governance positions these guys achieved.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kungu Karumba, Bildad Kagia, Ochieng Aneko, Masinde Muliro, Martin Shikuku, George Moseti Anyona, Chibule wa Tsuma, Mwashengu wa Mwachofi, Mwandawiro Mghanga, Mukaru Ng'ang'a, Wangari Maathai, etc.

What of the multi-party advocates like Kenneth Matiba or Charles Rubia?

Compare this with the current crop in PNU, the real wielders of power: -

Mwai Kibaki (he of the cutting Mugumo tree with razor blade fame), Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, George Saitoti, among many others in good company.

In Kenya, it appears there are some whose work will be to till, plant, weed, harvest and sell the crop only for others to come in at the convenient time to take home the sale proceeds.

Pray Raila does not become but one of the statistics in the former category!

[kamalet]

Apr 4, 2011 9:40:27 GMT 3 kipfirimbi said:

Ruto would implicate Raila with glee if he had anything on the man any given day and he would do it with luxury of excess.

But wait not so fast amigo what evidence be that be, that he may not have shared with Ocampo already that will tame his nemesis with finality?

Unless you know something we do not know, the matter at the ICC has not gone into discovery stage where the defence will provide their details as they collect Ocampo's details. During the confirmation hearings that is when these guys can implicate anyone they want to as they try to get themselves out of trouble.

Apr 4, 2011 9:40:27 GMT 3 kipfirimbi said:

These are the kind of far fetched dreams PNU likes to peddle the dream that Ruto may and will implicate Raila. The kind of dreams they “Uhuruto” keeps feeding the gullible that they will go to hague tell the truth come back and so that the "real" culprit (read Raila) be brought to book Unless they are referring to another real "culprit"(read Kibaki) . Either way great, we want them to implicate the people with the highest responsibility something that is already implied anyway. Lest we forget the Muthaura tape is signs of man willing to talk to save own ass!! and that is before things start moving, imagine when the trial begins??. Did someone say Muthaura can easily die for his boss. dream man, the guy is already talking!!

If and when people start to tell on one another, then be very afraid. There will be those wishing something else.

Apr 4, 2011 9:40:27 GMT 3 kipfirimbi said:

If Ruto and or PNU had a sniff or an iota of anything to plant on their nemesis, we all know the Raila bashing would have been to reduced to something else we cant describe here. All we hear is hogwash in the name of MASS ACTION PROTESTS (only in Kenya)

To the contrary to what you and the others want to believe Muthaura and or even Uhuru could easily implicate the man with the highest responsibility. Lets watch the drama unfold and revisit these hypothesis one day! Everyone in Kenya by now knows what happened in Statehouse in 2007/2008 in regards to PEV. Ocampo included!Truth be told!

When you start clutching at straws ati the Muthaura tape, then we know you have a problem. Muthaura has training on loyalty and whilst very few Kenyans ever thought he would be summoned, those clever ones know the reason he is there is on account of his boss. Muthaura would have known about being summoned and he would have deflected all evidence away from him by properly misusing his position. The fact that he did not should be telling enough.

[kipfirimbi]

Apr 4, 2011 13:19:11 GMT 3 kamalet said:

Apr 4, 2011 9:40:27 GMT 3 kipfirimbi said:

Ruto would implicate Raila with glee if he had anything on the man any given day and he would do it with luxury of excess.

But wait not so fast amigo what evidence be that be, that he may not have shared with Ocampo already that will tame his nemesis with finality?

Unless you know something we do not know, the matter at the ICC has not gone into discovery stage where the defence will provide their details as they collect Ocampo's details. During the confirmation hearings that is when these guys can implicate anyone they want to as they try to get themselves out of trouble.




If and when people start to tell on one another, then be very afraid. There will be those wishing something else.

Apr 4, 2011 9:40:27 GMT 3 kipfirimbi said:

If Ruto and or PNU had a sniff or an iota of anything to plant on their nemesis, we all know the Raila bashing would have been to reduced to something else we cant describe here. All we hear is hogwash in the name of MASS ACTION PROTESTS (only in Kenya)

To the contrary to what you and the others want to believe Muthaura and or even Uhuru could easily implicate the man with the highest responsibility. Lets watch the drama unfold and revisit these hypothesis one day! Everyone in Kenya by now knows what happened in Statehouse in 2007/2008 in regards to PEV. Ocampo included!Truth be told!

When you start clutching at straws ati the Muthaura tape, then we know you have a problem. Muthaura has training on loyalty and whilst very few Kenyans ever thought he would be summoned, those clever ones know the reason he is there is on account of his boss. Muthaura would have known about being summoned and he would have deflected all evidence away from him by properly misusing his position. The fact that he did not should be telling enough.

For the most, too much mediocrity for reponse, however lets agree to disagree on one facet of your points. That Muthaura is too loyal to implicate his master is fallacy but in your dream world that is far fetched and a stretch of reality. Keep that dear to your heart for in your dreamworld that is bankable. However lets wait for the what the real world that matters will reveal to us shortly and how this loyal servant will fair thus.Time for public opinion courts is nigh on this matter mate!!

Keeping it real and back to the thread , ODM is here to stay!! Its shading its too amorphous nature and will regroup at appropriate time. To those who are short sighted, lack of foresight will fail them to see beyong the current ongoings.

[okolowaka]

Yah , yah, ODM is dead, ODM is kaput, ODM is zilch, ODM is kwisha'd, ODM is burried, ODM is finito, ODM is,... yeah, we have heard this a gazzilion times...

How about PANU, Tai, PDP, PNU, PNU Alliance... how about them seizing this opportunity to take all elective posts instead of wasting acres of space advising ODM on how to conduct it's business...

The real death will come when the time to nominate 47 Senators, 47 Governors, 47 women's representative comes...

While the "dead" ODM has set things in motion towards this nomination exercise next year the other players are running helter skelter around the country hate mongering instead of building their party... which party is it again?...KANU, ODM-K, DP?...

Let us wait and see ODM die for the umpteenth time, Mr Mutua... let us wait...

[mintos]

aah they said on Monday they will announce a new party wen they land from Den Haag. Wonder what the name will be.

[merlin]

I like the writings of Makau Mutua especially for its realism. Of course he decorates and colours his writings according to his emotional wellbeing.

I don’t mind in which way he decorate his writings, I go for the facts and his realism.

He makes a split between the PM - which he sees as Kenya’s most dynamic and electrifying politician - and the party and perceives signals indicating an end for the party. So let’s follow him to analyze these signals.

He believes there are four reasons why ODM could soon come to an end.
1 ODM is unattractive for the public,
2 ODM has become a tribal outfit,
3 Inconsistant messages on important questions,
4 The William Ruto factor which has alienated the Kalenjin from ODM and Mr Odinga.

I prefere to comment first on item 3 “The message”. The main product of Political parties is the Message, the awareness of the current situation, the short term solutions, proposed structural changes and a vision for the future. Left without the message it will be an interest group not a political party.

3 Inconsistant messages on important questions,
The messages from ODM are consistent.
Makau throws Referral, Deferral and support for The Hague trials all in one bucket and conclude there is no “in-between”.
He is wrong; There are three options in his bucket and he should comment on each one of these.

It is YES on Referral.
ODM is consistent in its stand on referral. It is Yes from the beginning for a local tribunal though it must be able to pass the credibility test as recommended in the Waki report. There has been a name change from “local tribunal” to “referral” though the message is the same.

It is NO on Deferral.
ODM want Justice done. Not tomorrow though today. ODM has worked hard to bring Justice to Kenya. With help of all the Kenyans who voted YES for the new constitution the foundation for Justice has been laid.

YES for The Hague for the Ocampo 6.
There are many roadblocks to implement and build a Just society on the foundation. We are three years down the line and nothing to show for a credible Justice system yet. We cannot wait for 90 years to bring the main culprits of the PEV to face Justice so it is YES for the ICC as currently there is no credible local system to bring Justice to the victims of the PEV.

1 ODM is unattractive for the public,
ODM is a democratic political party based on reason. Yes the party could improve its outlook, the involvement of its members and strengthen the loyalty to the party. However ODM cannot do this with Demagogy or threats as “they will be followed to their homes and exposed as betrayers”. ODM is not a Tribal outfit and cannot create an atmosphere as if the tribe is under attack.
ODM gives a wide berth for ideas and participation. This leads to internal discussions which can lead to contradicting messages. This is why the party has to use their appropriate channels for communication with the Press. I think the party’s Secretary General is doing an excellent job in keeping the party on track which has little to do with arrogance.
If anything could be said about Internal Democracy than it is too lenient with rebels within the party who openly fight against the party’s manifest and vision.

2 ODM has become a tribal outfit,
When ODM was growing it attracted many opportune politicians jumping the bandwagon to have an easy ride into a parliamentary seat. These opportunists are manifesting themselves again now the elections for 2012 are glaring in the future. They are turning away from ODM - without leaving ODM – giving the impression that ODM is only supported by specific tribes. However ODM has the support of many Kenyans across the country as results from opinion polls confirms.

4 The William Ruto factor which has alienated the Kalenjin from ODM and Mr Odinga.
Yes the “William Ruto factor” has a lot of influence on the achievements of ODM as a party. He came into ODM as a wolf in sheepskin and has since been antagonising the politics and vision of ODM. He has done great harm to the constitution making, organised for the NO option in the referendum – which fell flat on his face - and vilifies the PM whenever he can. He plays the tribal card very well and has alienated many people of his tribe from ODM and Kenya as a unity. However he has had little influence on the direction and stability of ODM. The quest for another Kenya free from corruption and impunity still lives very strong in the hearts of many. This quest will become visible with the coming elections in 2012.

[jakaswanga]

Apr 2, 2011 20:24:00 GMT 3 mosop said:

As a party, ODM’s image has become repellant. Its secretariat — headed by Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o — seems opaque, undemocratic and arrogant.

“Party decisions” are individualised and Mafia-like — not collective. Internal democracy seems alien to ODM. The lack of party elections adds to opacity and the lack of transparency. How can a party that claims to be reformist be so Mubarak-like?

Why has ODM — headed by the country’s most colourful and magnetic politician — become so ugly? This brings me to the second reason why ODM could become history. The party that carried six out of eight provinces in 2007 now looks decidedly tribal.[/bhttp://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Why+ODM+could+be+headed+to+dustbin+of+history+/-/440808/1137610/-/item/1/-/on4ibfz/-/index.html

I would rather say ODM has become less attractive! And I think it is because they are unclear in their vision, unclear in their purpose, and have failed to develop a party structure which can be instrumental in the enactment of their electoral promises. This is typical of an umbrella organisation or movement encompassing a wide range of ideological tendencies, especially when it is in power. --So we had the ODM Nairobi mayor Majiwa being no better than the worst of Nairobi mayors. Even in cabinet, the perfomance of ODMers does not distinguish itself in any positive measure.

One thing has escaped professor Nyong'o. Not just the need for free and fair party elections to avoid the naija-complex in ODM, but the reform which would make the party secretariat be non parliamentarians. Why? Running a party gunning for power is a full time occupation, not a hobby for ministers to do in part- time. A party secretary or chairman needs to be permanent on the road, meeting branches all over the country, presenting seminars, arguing on every radio station and tv everyday.

As of now, maybe ODM is settling to its natural level. That it was just another smokescreen which the same ruling class invented to hoodwink the populace. That KANU, facing the pressure of the second liberation, underwent a political mitosis, producing identical twins in different clothings to disguise the ruse. So like the famous wolf shedding off shipskin to reveal the wolfish core, ODM political ideology tends toward PNU.

Unless progressives rise to the challenge, Raila's luo kitchen cabinet will be like a self-destructing torpedo on board.

[mzee]

Unless you provide me with an alternative party to ODM then yours is just empty talk and the usual hate. Show me of a party that can threaten ODM. I did not think you could because there is none. Let's give credit where due.

[politicalmaniac]

Apr 4, 2011 8:22:36 GMT 3 kamalet said:

When it comes to loyalty, Makau is right that Ruto could implicate Raila. On the other hand, Muthaura is just too loyal to implicate his boss.

So when you consider that the ICC claims to go for those with the greatest responsibility, Muthaura can easily die for his boss, bit it is like a dream imagining that Ruto will not easily and with glee give the evidence that shows that Raila may have had more responsibility than him.

.....and please do not remind me that Ocampo summoned Ruto and not Raila!

as they say you cant cure stupid.

ruto should have given whatever dirt he has to Ocampo whens he went to the Hague a few months then.

Ni Nini ana ngoja?

Logic beats sh!t every time!

[nowayhaha]

As usual ODM-Railas acting the ostrich with its head buried deep in the sand .

[jakaswanga]

Apr 4, 2011 22:18:22 GMT 3 mzee said:

Unless you provide me with an alternative party to ODM then yours is just empty talk and the usual hate. Show me of a party that can threaten ODM. I did not think you could because there is none. Let's give credit where due.

For example I wrote:

^{One thing has escaped professor Nyong'o. Not just the need for free and fair party elections to avoid the naija-complex in ODM, but the reform which would make the party secretariat be non parliamentarians. Why? Running a party gunning for power is a full time occupation, not a hobby for ministers to do in part- time. A party secretary or chairman needs to be permanent on the road, meeting branches all over the country, presenting seminars, arguing on every radio station and tv everyday.}

Now, Mzee, I expect you to systematically disesct my points and shoot them down with some heavy, brainy artillery. But if all you do is paste easy-to-come-by adjectives, then I loose my patience with you and tell you this. Your meagre response of a rejoinder was better left unsubmitted. And the best you can do is alot of shutting up, reading and learning how points are argued by the capables. Otherwise your name becomes a pun on your brain cells! aged.