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Post by phil on May 1, 2012 10:48:42 GMT 3
JUST RELEASED IPSOS SYNOVATE POLL:
If elections were held today
Raila -34%,
Uhuru -22%,
Kalonzo - 9%,
Ruto - 8%,
Karua - 5%,
Mudavadi- 5%
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Post by phil on May 1, 2012 10:54:44 GMT 3
Mudavadi support has risen from below 1% in Dec 2011 to 5% in April 2012.
If Uhuru & Ruto don't run for president, 34% of Kenyans would vote for Raila, 19% Kalonzo, 10% Mudavadi and 9% for Karua
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Post by phil on May 1, 2012 11:13:35 GMT 3
IPSOS SYNOVATE POLL:In the likely event of a run-off in the presidential polls,
Raila and Uhuru would tie at 44% (12% undecided),
Raila would beat Ruto with 48% to 33%,
Raila would beat Kalonzo with 46% to 41%,
Raila would beat Mudavadi with 43% to 41%.
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Post by mzee on May 1, 2012 13:49:25 GMT 3
IPSOS SYNOVATE POLL:In the likely event of a run-off in the presidential polls, Raila and Uhuru would tie at 44% (12% undecided), Raila would beat Ruto with 48% to 33%, Raila would beat Kalonzo with 46% to 41%, Raila would beat Mudavadi with 43% to 41%. This is really tight. Thats all I can say for now. More later |
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Post by phil on May 1, 2012 14:10:29 GMT 3
Not really @mzee There is a significant percentage of voters that are "undecided" in all these scenarios: IPSOS SYNOVATE POLL:In the likely event of a run-off in the presidential polls,
Raila and Uhuru would tie at 44% (12% undecided),
Raila would beat Ruto with 48% to 33%, (19% undecided)
Raila would beat Kalonzo with 46% to 41%, (13% undecided)
Raila would beat Mudavadi with 43% to 41%. (15% undecided) None of the candidates is yet to identify a running mate and this is going to be a critical factor in the first round. Political parties have not yet crafted and deposited pre-election coalition agreeements with the registrar of political parties as required by law. This is the strategy both Uhuru and Ruto are working on to rope in the Kikuyu and kalenjin votes, while ODM is hoping to mop-up most of the other small parties into its coalition. I see Mudavadi (and his party to be launched at KICC) going into coalition with G-7 Uhuru/Ruto, while Kalonzo will leave G-7, if he has not left already. The line-ups we see now are going to be totally changed and one of the most interesting ones I saw on this poll is that a Raila-Karua (5%) ticket is deemed by the public to be the third most preferrable after that of Raila-Mudavadi (21%), and Uhuru-Ruto (9%). For unknown reasons, Synovate did not sample a partnership putting Raila-Ruto or Uhuru-Mudavadi, but they saw it convenient to poll one on Kalonzo-Mudavadi (2%). For now, I think this poll is premature and will change in the next six months or so. www.synovate.co.ke/spr/index.php/survey/uncertainty_over_candidate_from_key_alliances_keeps_prime_minister_ahead_in |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on May 1, 2012 15:32:59 GMT 3
Phil,
I have to largely agree with Synovate safe for Uhuru's numbers. They seem to be falling slightly below what could be the reality. With Mudavadi taking a walk, Raila's numbers should be around 23-24% and this could rise to around 26-27% or drop to 16-18% in the general, depending on how the other guys do their campaigns and the running mate factor.
The net effect of Mudavadi's departure from ODM will begin to show especially if he runs a decent campaign. This could easily mean that Raila will not feature in round two if at all we get there.
If Mudavadi joins the G-7, the elections will be over with in round one, as it will simply be a blowout at 70-75%.
That is where this thing is headed. But I may be wrong as I am not using any raw data and spss but traditional voting trends.
PS: Wait for Ambitho, you will be surprised at how she inflates some figures to very unrealistic levels.
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Post by adongo23456 on May 1, 2012 16:47:17 GMT 3
mwalimumkuu
You must be the only one still talking about G7. That was a practical joke that died a natural death. Why do you think all the G7 chaps are busy buying empty shell parties to keep in their pockets. Because they know they have to run on something and the porojo that G7 so called leaders will join some mbas offered to them by Kiraitu and pick a leader was just some entertainment for a little while. That road is closed.
Uhuru wants to run unless ICC knocks him out. For me it is a matter of when and not if the ICC will knock him out. It would be nice though for Raila to go head to head with Uhuru and beat him fair and sqaure before the poor soul goes to The Hague. That way he will not have to be crying and complaining while down there.
In effect the two main contenders are Raila and Uhuru. Synovvate gave Uhuru 44-41 lead in their last polls. Today they put them tied. And yet Raila was supposed to have had been committing suicide three times a day for the last little while. Synovvate is Synovvate so no need to go there. We just look at the numbers they have given us.
The real mchuzi mix that even the polls can't tell you now is what happens after the so called G7 go toe to toe in the first round knowing very well that a third place is a ticket to oblivion. You are dead after round one.
If the race is run with the list we have only Raila and Uhuru will remain standing. Uhuru by then may be Hague bound if not already down there.
The one thing we have not tried to figure out is what happens if Raila and Uhuru go to the run-off and Uhuru ends up at The Hague before the run-offs. His name must remain in the balllot since there are no other provisions. Even our sophisticated katiba did not anticipate such a dramatic turn of events. I am sure they have a mechanism on what to do if one of the candidates dies before the run-off but I doubt they have anything if one becomes disabled by criminal involvement. Anyway there are people out there paid by these guys to think through such scenarios. I am not one of them.
But I see Raila taking Uhuru out if they go head to head in round TWO and in all fairness they should. My contention has always been that the katiba does not stop even high level criminals from running for office. What it does is it stops them from holding office. You can run but just make sure you lose.
The butchers of Naivasha tried to cover these grounds but they couldn't cover them all. So in my view the Hague boys can run for office (a foolish move on their part if you ask me) but they can't hold that office.
There is no chance in hell that one spends years fighting at The Hague and holding the highest office in the republic at the same time. So the options ahead of us are infinitely complex. We will just have to take it one day at a time.
The beauty of it all is that nothing can stop the clock. The elections are coming. They have tried to stretch it as far away as they can but they can't stretch it any further. And the other tik tok is moving a long just fine.
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Post by job on May 1, 2012 17:11:35 GMT 3
The moment any poll tells you more than 10% respondents haven't decided, completley disregard such data. Another (likely related) fact - such polls don't tell us what would happen if/when ICC strikes.
But as far as things stand now, a run-off race between Raila and Uhuru (exactly what I would want to see) may just shock those who think Kenyans are a bunch of simpletons....who would drink from a poisoned chalice and go to sleep.
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Post by mzee on May 1, 2012 17:46:22 GMT 3
I think that things will get thick when RAO launches his campaign. Akina Uhuru have been campaigning for the past three years. When Raila starts campaigning, I do believe that things will change drastically.
Phil, is right. Why did they only match Raila with everybody?
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Post by nowayhaha on May 1, 2012 18:38:26 GMT 3
Points to note
.The poll is 10 Months or so to the next general elections.
.As rightly pointed out Mudavadi pull out is yet to be felt .He announces his party tomorrow thus trickling effect will be felt months later.
.Uhuru is the leading candidate amongst Raila rivals .This is so without even having a party as a platform to run the presidential elections .
.G7 have not even converged to rally one candidate .As they have stated during Jamlecks Homecoming they are awaiting for Uhuru to announce a party then the show is on.
.Diaspora vote is critical and important was it factored in the poll?
.Where have all these undecided voters come from ?
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Post by phil on May 1, 2012 18:56:42 GMT 3
Points to note .The poll is 10 Months or so to the next general elections. .As rightly pointed out Mudavadi pull out is yet to be felt .He announces his party tomorrow thus trickling effect will be felt months later. .Uhuru is the leading candidate amongst Raila rivals .This is so without even having a party as a platform to run the presidential elections . .G7 have not even converged to rally one candidate .As they have stated during Jamlecks Homecoming they are awaiting for Uhuru to announce a party then the show is on. .Diaspora vote is critical and important was it factored in the poll? .Where have all these undecided voters come from ? Well said, BUT, points for you to note => G7 does not hold a monopoly for crafting pre-election coalitions. ODM will be talking to parties to join its coalition too. And there is a significant national constituency that wants to avoid Uhuruto like plague. (This is the constituency Mudavadi is targeting). => Not all G-7 members will agree to follow Uhuruto, least of all that man with the ego the size of Mt Kenya, one Kalonzo Musyoka. => Not all GEMA and KAMATUSA will agree to be shepherded like sheep into a journey to the unknown. Remove Raila from the equation and G7 is totally in the dark about what they want to do for this country other than use political power to avoid ICC prosecution. => It is evident in this poll that individual candidates who fail to make it to round two are not guaranteed to bring their entire support to whichever side they opt to support. This is more seen in Ruto and Mudavadi's cases. Their core support fizzles as soon as they fail in the first round. => Just like you reckon Mudavadi's effect on ODM will be felt months later, should this not be same about Uhuru's on KANU? => Three years of sustained public attacks on the PM have hardly done the damage one would expect. Three years of frustration on PM by coalition partner has hardly reduced the PM's support, a man who was not given any chance in the 2007 polls hardly three months tot he election. I still maintain it is premature to gauge how this election will play out. I can guarantee however, there is no chance in hell either Uhuru nor Ruto will be president ANYTIME soon, if ever. |
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Post by akinyi2005 on May 1, 2012 19:09:33 GMT 3
Those that have been writing the PM's political obituary for the past God knows how many years are best advised to try other tricks. (just don't do anything silly out of desperation)
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Post by raiswakesho on May 1, 2012 19:46:19 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu,
I must say with all due respect that you don't strike me as a smart member! Statistics isn't about addition and substraction as you may want others to believe.
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Post by tnk on May 1, 2012 19:54:33 GMT 3
looking a the synovate poll
the things to take away from this poll are
a) party politics
the interesting outlook presented on page 13 and read together with page 14 which is open to various interpretation, i have my own which i hope to reflect on a little more before sharing
b) person/candidate politics
page 19 read together with page 20
c) uhuruto factor / dilemna
page 22 and 23 (note to self = impunity meter)
d) G7 president/running mate
page 27
ruto gets an official TKO, apart from high numbers if he agrees to be running mate for uhuru, ruto is a no go for any other combination either as presidential candidate or running mate
all these guys are riding uhuru popularity and are zero on their own irrespective of whom teams with whom
e) rigging factor opportunity
page 31 ++
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Post by tnk on May 1, 2012 19:56:20 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, I must say with all due respect that you don't strike me as a smart member! Statistics isn't about addition and substraction as you may want others to believe. hehehe good luck with that, mwalimumkuu has a very interesting understanding of numbers |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on May 1, 2012 20:10:18 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, Statistics isn't about addition and substraction as you may want others to believe. What is statistics to you? And what do you make of those numbers? You see Bw/Bi Rais, we are not engaged in a 'who is smarter than a 5th grader' kind of thing here, but perspectives on topical issues. So whats your perspective on those numbers? If you do not agree with my take, where do we deviate and how so? It is always better to take that kind of route because it opens the discussion more. Otherwise, leaving it as is, can simply be understood as you vouching for a camp or candidate that my view of the numbers does not seem to favor, which is not very helpful. So back to you, what should we make of those numbers? |
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Post by phil on May 3, 2012 12:50:04 GMT 3
Meanwhile.........
WIPER VICE CHAIRMAN JOINS ODM.
Vice Chairman of the Wiper Democratic Movement Party formerly known as ODM-K Mr. Joe Khamisi has quit the party to join ODM.
In a letter addressed to the Registrar of Political Parties and copied to the Secretary General of the ODM Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o, Mr. Khamisi who is also a former MP for Bahari Constituency said he had already notified his former party of his resignation from the party with immediate effect.
“At the same time, I would like to inform you of my desire to join the Orange Democratic Movement Party – ODM to pursue my future political ambitions” said Mr. Khamisi in the letter.
Mr. Khamisi has also applied for Life Membership of the ODM and paid the pre-requisite amount of Ksh. 20,000 for the same.
Ends…
3/5/2012
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Post by mzee on May 3, 2012 13:50:37 GMT 3
Meanwhile......... WIPER VICE CHAIRMAN JOINS ODM. Vice Chairman of the Wiper Democratic Movement Party formerly known as ODM-K Mr. Joe Khamisi has quit the party to join ODM. In a letter addressed to the Registrar of Political Parties and copied to the Secretary General of the ODM Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o, Mr. Khamisi who is also a former MP for Bahari Constituency said he had already notified his former party of his resignation from the party with immediate effect. “At the same time, I would like to inform you of my desire to join the Orange Democratic Movement Party – ODM to pursue my future political ambitions” said Mr. Khamisi in the letter. Mr. Khamisi has also applied for Life Membership of the ODM and paid the pre-requisite amount of Ksh. 20,000 for the same. Ends… 3/5/2012 Now this is earth shaking. Welcome Khamisi. You are in the party of the future. |
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Post by kamalet on May 3, 2012 14:36:08 GMT 3
Meanwhile......... WIPER VICE CHAIRMAN JOINS ODM. Vice Chairman of the Wiper Democratic Movement Party formerly known as ODM-K Mr. Joe Khamisi has quit the party to join ODM. In a letter addressed to the Registrar of Political Parties and copied to the Secretary General of the ODM Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o, Mr. Khamisi who is also a former MP for Bahari Constituency said he had already notified his former party of his resignation from the party with immediate effect. “At the same time, I would like to inform you of my desire to join the Orange Democratic Movement Party – ODM to pursue my future political ambitions” said Mr. Khamisi in the letter. Mr. Khamisi has also applied for Life Membership of the ODM and paid the pre-requisite amount of Ksh. 20,000 for the same. Ends… 3/5/2012 Now this is earth shaking. Welcome Khamisi. You are in the party of the future. Not exactly earth shaking...the man fell out with Wiper leader after an unflattering comment on the VP in his autobio. |
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Post by mzee on May 3, 2012 14:46:46 GMT 3
Now this is earth shaking. Welcome Khamisi. You are in the party of the future. Not exactly earth shaking...the man fell out with Wiper leader after an unflattering comment on the VP in his autobio. I bought the book you are alluding to at JKIA and read through it on my flight. It confirmed alot of the things that people just thought of as rumors. For example, it revealed that Kalonzo had mounted a fake campaign knowing full well that he was not going to win. Khamisi also revealed of how the wiper guy went into bed with Kibaki after being promised the VP position. According to Khamisi Kalonzo could have sold his own mother for that position etc. He also talked of how the wiper forgot about Julia Ojiambo and others who helped him after he landed the VP position. |
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Post by gemagema on May 4, 2012 0:00:41 GMT 3
Phil, I have to largely agree with Synovate safe for Uhuru's numbers. They seem to be falling slightly below what could be the reality. With Mudavadi taking a walk, Raila's numbers should be around 23-24% and this could rise to around 26-27% or drop to 16-18% in the general, depending on how the other guys do their campaigns and the running mate factor. The net effect of Mudavadi's departure from ODM will begin to show especially if he runs a decent campaign. This could easily mean that Raila will not feature in round two if at all we get there. If Mudavadi joins the G-7, the elections will be over with in round one, as it will simply be a blowout at 70-75%. That is where this thing is headed. But I may be wrong as I am not using any raw data and spss but traditional voting trends. PS: Wait for Ambitho, you will be surprised at how she inflates some figures to very unrealistic levels. While others are amazed at your working with statistics. I am lost for words to explain your try at election punditry, which of course is very circumscribed and lopsided against RAO. Kweli, not even my great grandmother in the village has begun to imagine of a win for Mudavadi if put against Raila. Phil put is so well...the likes of Mudavadi will fizzle out after Round 1. The only guys with political muscle are RAO and UK, nyingine yote ni mabaki You also think that Mudavadi will only do well if he puts up a good campaign...what about if Raila puts up his very usual good campaigns? Anyways, endelea kusinziya |
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Post by gemagema on May 4, 2012 0:26:18 GMT 3
=> It is evident in this poll that individual candidates who fail to make it to round two are not guaranteed to bring their entire support to whichever side they opt to support. This is more seen in Ruto and Mudavadi's cases. Their core support fizzles as soon as they fail in the first round. Phil, You introduce a very good analysis here. Actually I had not given a thought to the issue of the power and influence Mudavadi has or is purported to have, which should translate to him bringing on board his constituents in the case that he looses round 1. And unfortunately, the problem is, unlike the last constitution, the new constitution has no provisions like those that benefited Kalonzo - that is Mudavadi will not be made a VP because whoever he will be supporting in the run-off, e.g Uhuru, would have his own running mate (VP) already. So, why would the Luhyas decide to go where Muda shows them to go, if there will be no political benefit even for him as a leader? Actually, in regard to the Kenyan political culture of 'we also want to eat', how will a loosing presidential candidate be rewarded for instructing his constituents to vote a particular candidate in the run-off. I doubt that a reason such as..so we can keep out RAO from becoming PORK...wont sell to the wananchi at all That said, I do think that whoever chooses his running mate wisely, and whoever here refers to Uhuru or Odinga, will generously benefit from the effects of a run-off. |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on May 4, 2012 0:36:54 GMT 3
Phil, I have to largely agree with Synovate safe for Uhuru's numbers. They seem to be falling slightly below what could be the reality. With Mudavadi taking a walk, Raila's numbers should be around 23-24% and this could rise to around 26-27% or drop to 16-18% in the general, depending on how the other guys do their campaigns and the running mate factor. The net effect of Mudavadi's departure from ODM will begin to show especially if he runs a decent campaign. This could easily mean that Raila will not feature in round two if at all we get there. If Mudavadi joins the G-7, the elections will be over with in round one, as it will simply be a blowout at 70-75%. That is where this thing is headed. But I may be wrong as I am not using any raw data and spss but traditional voting trends. PS: Wait for Ambitho, you will be surprised at how she inflates some figures to very unrealistic levels. While others are amazed at your working with statistics. I am lost for words to explain your try at election punditry, which of course is very circumscribed and lopsided against RAO. Kweli, not even my great grandmother in the village has begun to imagine of a win for Mudavadi if put against Raila. Phil put is so well...the likes of Mudavadi will fizzle out after Round 1. The only guys with political muscle are RAO and UK, nyingine yote ni mabaki You also think that Mudavadi will only do well if he puts up a good campaign...what about if Raila puts up his very usual good campaigns? Anyways, endelea kusinziya I think some of you take jukwaa for granted. You think it is a place you can just walk to drunk or half asleep, throw some stuff and go back to your beds to snore. This is what you said a very short a while ago: Mmh! I am really musing and gambling with some probable outcomes come 2012 General elections.
The thing is, if Mudavadi and Uhuru really stick up together...and by this I mean Uhuru to be Mudavadi's running mate and not vice versa...then let the Kenyans be rest assured that RAO will be deep buried if not cremated. However, if Mudavadi is Uhuru's running mate...then in all certainty, such a coalition will not bear fruit. Why? Because Kenyans are not ready to have another Kikuyu president, even if they have Mudavadi slotted in as the vice PORK. So, and I hope Mudavadi and crew are reading these....Mudavadi has no chance as a running mate to Uhuru....the Uhuru marriage will only yield fruit if Uhuru allows (which am sure he and GEMA wont) Mudavadi to be the presidential candidate
Let us call it the Ebb and Flow of Musalia Mudavadi and the miscalculations of the Bo Xilai of Kenya
What did your great grandmother tell you about it? |
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Post by deyiengs on May 4, 2012 2:51:04 GMT 3
The moment any poll tells you more than 10% respondents haven't decided, completley disregard such data.
Just ignore the polls in total. Very compromised (and will always be as long as Kenya remains the Kenya we know) |
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Post by chokoraa on May 4, 2012 6:43:41 GMT 3
=> It is evident in this poll that individual candidates who fail to make it to round two are not guaranteed to bring their entire support to whichever side they opt to support. This is more seen in Ruto and Mudavadi's cases. Their core support fizzles as soon as they fail in the first round. Phil, You introduce a very good analysis here. Actually I had not given a thought to the issue of the power and influence Mudavadi has or is purported to have, which should translate to him bringing on board his constituents in the case that he looses round 1. And unfortunately, the problem is, unlike the last constitution, the new constitution has no provisions like those that benefited Kalonzo - that is Mudavadi will not be made a VP because whoever he will be supporting in the run-off, e.g Uhuru, would have his own running mate (VP) already. So, why would the Luhyas decide to go where Muda shows them to go, if there will be no political benefit even for him as a leader? Actually, in regard to the Kenyan political culture of 'we also want to eat', how will a loosing presidential candidate be rewarded for instructing his constituents to vote a particular candidate in the run-off. I doubt that a reason such as..so we can keep out RAO from becoming PORK...wont sell to the wananchi at all That said, I do think that whoever chooses his running mate wisely, and whoever here refers to Uhuru or Odinga, will generously benefit from the effects of a run-off. True - the sad issue is whoever goes in the ''ballot'' to spoil for RAO or any other presidential candidate is a loser himself. In the old Katiba they'd be assured of an MP's position and maybe rewarded with some ministerial post or something (oh judas, you ring in my mind when this has to be discussed!!!!) in a nomination of sorts. I wonder what happens when you run for PORK, then you lose - you cannot be MP, a Cabinet Secretaries post is not assured because the vetting and all that will not be easy to go through for the likes of MM and others who have been in government before. That's why if I was to advise MM, I'd tell him to make sure the briefcase is big enough to last him another five years. |
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