Did the Luhya really jump ship with Musalia?

[nowayhaha]

One curios thing stood out when Musalia Mudavadi finally took the bold step and eased himself out of ODM slightly less than two weeks ago. The DPM took the opportunity to pay tribute to his wife, thanking her profusely for firmly sticking besides in the rough and tumble political journey. Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah took the cue and poured unstinting praises to the lady, thanking her for "making all these happen".

Curiously, Musalia didn't not as much as extend similar show of love to the people of Sabatia, who besides Tessi, have over time re-elected him in the topsy-turvy that is Kenyan politics since he first started the journey way back in 1989. Musalia's statement coupled with that of Kioni suggests that the lady must have played more than a cursory role in the DPM's political divorce from ODM than is being publicly acknowledged. Which makes Musalia's exit from ODM all the more curious, not so much as the timing as the manner it was executed.

For the first time ever, the luhya community finds itself in the political crossroad: either to stick together and support one of their own, who probably stands the best chance to improve on the performance of those before him, like Kijana Wamalwa, Martin Shikuku and even Nixon. Yet, the feeling is that UDF is not entirely Musalia. They see the party’s State House connection and hesitate to move along because they believe that Musalia may be a project of the powerful political elite.

There are those who believe that Musalia should have joined New Ford Kenya, Ford Kenya or at worst start his political outfit that has no connection to any other force. Starting on his own, or joining any of the existing “luhya parties", would have reinforced Musalia's “Shienyu ni shienyu” slogan and given him a headstart over ODM or any other force in the region.

Instead, Musalia chose UDF, a party that is affiliated to PNU and President Kibaki. He has planted the seed of doubt among his own people who now don’t trust that his bid for the top seat is for the good of the country and not a ploy to safeguard the interests of reactionary forces. Mudavadi's political rebirth, though venerated elsewhere, seems to be riding its luck in the four counties that are inhabited by his own community.

A vast majority of the region's MPs, most of them in ODM, have refused to move arguing that the luhya's best chances to the top are best served with an alliance with the neighbours, the Luo. With that single act, Musalia wadded into the Luo-kikuyu myth that has over time defined the political development of the modern Kenyan state.

It would appear Musalia has rejected the Luo and endorsed the Kikuyu as a trusted people worth doing business with it. His acrimonious exit from ODM has fortified the myth that the Luo are unreliable people and cannot lead. This is exemplified with his call on Raila Odinga to quit politics and retire honourably. It is further noted that Musalia's harshest words of his political career have been directed towards Raila, and there have been debates since Sunday on whether he could extend similar language to President Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta or even Martha Karua.

In this crusade, Musalia has employed the services of Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale and Housing Minister Soita Shitanda as the Trojan horses of what is clearly unfolding as an anti-Raila, anti-Luo scheme. The New Ford Kenya duo are the face of this rejection and can be relied upon to ruthlessly execute the war without as much as a second thought as witnessed during the recent burial of Nairobi city mayor's dad in Vihiga.

Khalwale's anti-Raila, and to an extent, anti-Luo, sentiments during the burial were not an accident. They characterise the brand of politics he has espoused ever since he joined Parliament as a Narc legislator in 2003. In leaving ODM, Musalia did not just opt to go to bed with some of his harshest critics in the region, but chose to use the two MPs probably because they symbolise the anti-Luo feeling within the Luyia community.

Khalwale, the louder of the two, hails from Idakho sub-tribe, while Soita is from the Kabras, who alongside the Isukha of Shinyalu, have always held prejudice against the Luo based on primordial cultural practises, like circumcision, and football. Within these communities, circumcision is a tool of valour and subjugation, where youth are socialised to believe that they are superior to the Luo just because they have “faced the knife”.

This thinking is predominant within the communities around Kakamega and could as well account for Khalwale's political behaviour since 2003. The indication of this behaviour was first exposed by Khalwale in 2003 during the burial of former vice president Kijana Wamalwa in Kitale. Raila had arrived in the town in style to pay his last respect to the fallen VP in a typical Luo tradition. With a lorry load of bulls as his gift to the family, Raila descended into the town clad in Luo traditional regalia and went on to conduct a mock tero buru ceremony at the Kitale showground.

However, this gesture didn't amuse the ultra-conservative luhyas like Khalwale. They hastily organised a counter ceremony in the name of cleansing the venue on the grounds that Raila's had desecrated the venue because he was not circumcised. This is the ideology that has characterised Khalwale's stint in Parliament and which has made him "tough and merciless" when tackling Raila and ODM ministers and completely mellow and fearful when dealing with PNU-allied ministers.

It is precisely because of this that Khalwale would go ballistic against Anyang Nyong'o over NHIF, using demeaning terms to describe him but go completely mute on Amos Kimunya's skewed appointment of KPA board and pretend that the Triton scam was a scandal that never was. Shitanda has been the leader of New Ford Kenya since 2006. He founded the party by stabbing Musikari Kombo, then Ford Kenya leader, at the back.

Yet, throughout this period, he has never shown any interest to lead. He has never declared his interest in the presidency, even though he has never wasted any opportunity to attack Musalia for not seeking the presidency. Kombo has since joined the anti-Raila brigade. Even though he is the PM’s agemate, and both were in the struggle for the so-called second liberation, Kombo has found it easy to be Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Eugene Wamalwa's cheerleader.

In fact, Kombo has since joined New Ford Kenya and discarded Ford Kenya, not just the party he led and brought down, but the one that espouses the ideas of Masinde Muliro, the preeminent. Other luhya communities like Abanyole of Emuhaya, the Kisa of Khwisero, Marama of Butere and Wanga of Mumias have refused to move with Musalia, at least if the position of their MPs is any guide.

Most of these communities in Kakamega and Busia have no fundamental problem with the Luo, probably because they share a lot in terms of culture and economy. It is not that the two sides have been marginalised by successive regimes, but there are cases where some Luhya sub-tribes and the Luo of Siaya share some common cultural practices. The two sides have coexisted for many years without any major hitch. But there have never been hitches among them. Around Maseno area, the two sides where there has been a dispute over the natives of the area.

Yet, this hitches have not been as significant as to cause violence or tension between them as witnessed other areas. The argument is that the DPM has not given sufficient reasons of his exit from ODM that would warrant them to move with him and because they essentially have no fundamental problem with the luo. The same would appear to Abanyala of Budalang'i, Samia of Funyula, Marachi of Butula and Abakahayo of Nambale who have refused to be carried by the excitement of one of their own being in power.

The Abatsotso of Lurambi are most likely to throw their lot with the cousins in Kisa and Marama, while political matrix in Lugari could be complicated owing to the area's cosmopolitan nature. Musalia's action has literally thrown the Bukusu in a spin. With at least four individuals interested in the big seat, it is likely that the Bukusu will view his entry in the race with less than a passing interest.

That will depend on how Eugene Wamalwa and Moses Wetangula fare and exploit Musalia's entry in the race. Most of these communities do not consider the Luo as their enemies much as they believe that reasons advanced by Musalia for leaving are insufficient to justify the decision he has taken. In Vihiga George Khaniri's support for UDF is justifiable because it all but guarantees him the senatorship of the Vihiga county.

Khaniri expects to easily sail through because the Maragoli would easily endorse him for the seat for standing by Musalia during this troubled times of his political career. But this will have its challenges. The Abanyole may spoil the party. Being one of those populous communities, they will definitely veto any action that alienates them from mainstream politics of the county.

the-star.co.ke/weekend/siasa/77443-did-the-luhya-really-jump-ship-with-musalia

[nereah]

kweli siasa, ni moto moto.


mchanganuzi oruko ametupiga jeki sis wana odm na huu mtazamo wa kipeke. ni wazi kwamba bwana musalia hajadhibiti na hata dhibiti ngombe la odm. western ni imaya ya odm navyo itadhirika leo mchana kwa makaribisho ya shujaa amolo odinga na mababi wa odm.

heshima kwa changamoto bwana oruko. wembe ni ule ule.

[mbuta]

I think the Luhya Nation, and here I am talking specifically of the elected officials, will wait until the last minute to see where the wind is blowing(and whats blowing in it) before they jump ship one way or another...Kenya's political direction is normally decided 2 months before the elections...

[nowayhaha]

Mudavadi allies decamp to UDF
www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Mudavadi+allies+decamp+to+UDF/-/1064/1414318/-/2dcwbfz/-/index.html

Political leaders in western Kenya from Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi's stronghold have resolved to consolidate and support the United Democratic Forum (UDF) party.

More than 300 party branch officials from Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), New Ford Kenya, Ford Kenya and PNU made the resolution after a day long meeting in Kakamega on Saturday.

Under the banner of a ‘fresh start’, the officials said there was need for unity in the region to ensure adequate support for Mudavadi’s presidential bid.

Those present during the resolution were Mr Mudavadi, Housing Minister Soita Shitanda, Gender and Children assistant minister Manyala Keya, Ikolomani MP Bonny
Khalwale, and Vihiga MP Yusuf Chanzu.

At the same time, western Kenya KNUT branch officials over the weekend made a declaration that teachers will support Mudavadi's bid as did women leaders drawn from Maendeleo ya Wanawake and professionals.

Jamindas Declaration

At Jamindas Paradise Motel, the teachers officials made the ‘Jamindas Declaration’ in support of Mudavadi’s bid.

They vowed to comb the region to marshal support and 'deal with those opposing his candidature in the region.' Read (Raila allies want deputy premier sent packing)
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On Saturday, DPM Mudavadi met with different interest groups drawn from the four Counties of western Kenya to seal and firmly secure his home base support.

After officially opening the UDF Vihiga County office, Mr Mudavadi met KNUT leaders at Jamindas Motel.

Later, he met with women leaders at Golf Hotel Kakamega and thereafter met different political party officials at Savona Hotel in Kakamega town.

It's at Savona Hotel where 300 party officials from different political groups agreed to form interim party posts under UDFP to avoid competition amongst themselves.

“In 2002 when NARC was formed, it became clear that divisions within affiliate parties would hand KANU an easy victory. Again, we risk the same unless we merge our parties into UDF” said Housing Minister Soita Shitanda.

They said Mudavadi will defuse tension and fear factor among the competing political leaders so that violence similar to the one experienced in the 2008 post election chaos will not recur.

UDF's best chance

Mudavadi said the glorious moment of ODM was in 2007 whereas UDF has the best opportunity because of its national outreach.

“UDF has the best chance while ODM has none. Kenyans have moved on and changed significantly. If there was time that ODM were to win an election their best chance was in 2007." he said.

[adongo23456]

Folks,

Mudavadi is struggling very badly. He is stuck with the four M.Ps. The calculation that the Luhya M.Ps will all bolt ODM and join Mudavadi as his wave sweeps the former Western province has flopped miserably. How did that happen? Simple. M.Ps often take their cue from the people themselves. M.Ps are in the business of trying to keep their seats.

The people of Western are for the most part solidly behind ODM. Those who thought that removing Mudavadi from ODM will automatically take away the Luhya support for ODM miscalculated very badly. The tribal math experts goofed here big time. We warned them and warned Mudavadi not to be fooled by tricksters who were promising him everything including a first round win over Raila. They didn't listen. Now they can see with their own eyes.

Yes Mudavadi will get some votes from Western in round one but not a whole lot. In round two after Mudavadi shall have been retired due to his misguided move ODM will consolidate the Western vote in all out war with Uhuru who by then will probably already be sweating in the ICC court at The Hague or a fugitive. We will see how that vote goes. Yes Uhuru may be on the ballot but not available to actually campaign. Now try figuring that out. Not easy eh?

Back to Mudavadi. The man really needs to get his game moving. He seems to have the charisma of a drying paint on the wall. It is just not there. It is painful to seee him trying. When you join the big leagues, you better know what you are doing. There are no freebies.

And this idea of Mudavadi getting a few KNUT leaders and Maendeleo Ya Wanawake leaders to promise Mudavadi the support of teachers and women respectively is so Moi. It is absurd and silly.

Teachers have the capacity to make up their own minds who to vote for. They don't get instructions from KNUT. Kenyan women also do not need instructions from anybody on who to vote for. Those Moi tactics just don't work anymore. Mudavadi is completely lost.

As long as Uhuru stays in the race, Mudavadi better go for a councillor's seat somewhere. Ironical as it may seem, it is Mudavadi and not Raila who desperately needs Uhuru out of the race and at The Hague. Who could have thought about that? Wait till Mutha hears that Mudavadi needs his demise to stay relevant. Mutha would be forced to slap him several times even for entertaining such offensive thoughts. The things that people do to try to kill Raila politically often end up killing the schemers themselves. It is a political graveyard steaming with "luminaries" and counting.

[gemagema]

Mmmh! Oruko has definitely made me understand the Western communities and their relative political affiliations and inclinations better.

However, am just wandering how a Luhya from outside the big Luhya tribes, which are Bukusu and Maragoli, can actually help RAO regain lost ground in Western Kenya. Am talking about Namwamba being the point man for RAO. Can Namwamba convince the Bukusus (assuming the Maragolis are already with Mudavadi), to vote RAO. Arent the Bukusu's not going to prefer their own..Wetangula? Wamalwa?

Just musing...

[mwalimumkuu]

May 28, 2012 1:12:07 GMT 3 gemagema said:

Mmmh! Oruko has definitely made me understand the Western communities and their relative political affiliations and inclinations better.

However, am just wandering how a Luhya from outside the big Luhya tribes, which are Bukusu and Maragoli, can actually help RAO regain lost ground in Western Kenya. Am talking about Namwamba being the point man for RAO. Can Namwamba convince the Bukusus (assuming the Maragolis are already with Mudavadi), to vote RAO. Arent the Bukusu's not going to prefer their own..Wetangula? Wamalwa?

Just musing...

Gemagema,

The problem with this Ongiri guy is that he puts a very heavy spin on his perspective and spices it with blatant lies that it flatly fails the credibility test. Take for instance the things he writes about Bonny Khalwale, one need to have just arrived from Mars to buy that crap.

But you ask one very important question; exactly what do the likes of Namwamba bring to ODM. I have said here before and I want to repeat that, what is left of ODM are fellows who need Raila more than Raila needs them. The Koskeis, Nwamwambas, Shebesh, Millies, Oparanya, Johos, Wanjirus and the whole lot of them, other than their physical presence they lack any traction that ODM so badly needs at this time.

In fact, I dare say, they bring their own inadequacies and fears and hope that Raila can work the magic they need to ride on and manage to get something out of it. It is looking like it will be a very long and miserable wait.

As regards western in particular, things are elephant for ODM. Take for instance Busia and Kakamega counties where the party made stops over the weekend, there are only two MPs from each of the counties sticking it out for ODM, all the rest are with Mudavadi with one or two sitting on the fence.

And as Adongo explains above, MPs' decisions are normally based on the movement of the people on the ground. This can therefore only mean that majority of the people are with Mudavadi, and remember he is yet to campaign there. He makes his first visit on June 2.

To help understand how things may just play out in that region, I found this article by Domic Odipo, a man who very well understands the nitty-gritties of western politics and demographics, to be very helpful. Jisomee.

www.standardmedia.co.ke/index.php?articleID=2000058140&story_title=Dreams%20of%20my%20new%20candidate%20at%20TNA...

[gemagema]

Mwalimumkuu,

Firstly, I will paste Odipo's article here, which wasn't a bad read, before i give my take on it below here below

Could Musalia create same wave as Kijana?
By Dominic Odipo
As the days turn into weeks, the raging political supremacy war between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his former deputy, Musalia Mudavadi, is beginning to take on some game-changing components.

What some ODM strategists originally saw as some fleeting Mudavadi aberration is now threatening to transform itself into such a powerful political wave that all who stand before it in the former Western Province could be swept into Lake Victoria. Make no mistake.

Last week, Ben Washiali, the legislator for Mumias, announced that he was switching his allegiance from ODM and Raila Odinga to Mudavadi. Two weeks earlier, two of the region’s most vocal MPs, Ababu Namwamba and Fred Gumo, had declared that they would stay in ODM and work very hard to consign Mudavadi to the political dustbin.

Which way is the political wind vane in the former Western Province or Luhyaland blowing? Who, between Raila and Mudavadi, is likely to annihilate the other politically in this pivotal political battleground?

If political power in a democracy is ultimately about numbers, then let us look briefly at the region’s latest political demographics and see what conclusions one can logically draw from them.

Both Namwamba and Gumo spring from Bunyala on Lake Victoria or what is now called Budalang’i Constituency. According to the National Population and Housing Census held in August 2009 the total population of Budalang’i Constituency at that time were just under 67,000.

The comparative figures for the other Luhya constituencies in Busia County were: Funyula, 94,000; Butula, 122,000; and Nambale, 206,000. As you can see, Budalang’i, from where both Namwamba and Gumo spring, is the most politically insignificant constituency in Busia County in terms of raw numbers.

This means that Namwamba and Gumo’s spirited public support for Raila amounts to very little in terms of the actual number of votes they can mobilise on the ground in Busia County for ODM.

home of the Bukusu
The biggest numbers in the Luhya part of Busia County will be found in Bukhayo or Nambale Constituency which is more than three times as large as Budalang’i constituency and whose MP, Chris Okemo, has already publicly expressed his support for Mudavadi’s presidential bid.

Now take Mumias whose MP abandoned ODM for Mudavadi last week. According to those same Census figures, by the end of August 2009, Mumias Constituency had a total population of 212,000, again, over three times the size of Ababu Namwamba’s Budalang’i.

If you add on here the neighbouring Matungu Constituency with a total population at the time of 146,000 and which generally votes in tandem with Mumias on such matters, then the larger or old Mumias Constituency had a total population of almost 360,000 in August, 2009, almost six times the size of Budalang’i.

This means that in terms of the potential voters likely to be gained by Mudavadi and lost to ODM, Washiali’s defection from ODM is much more significant that Namwamba and Gumo’s efforts combined.

Staying with these figures, two of the largest constituencies in Kakamega County, apart from Mumias, are Lurambi (297,000) and Malava (292,000).

As the ODM strategists in Kakamega may already have noticed, the sitting MPs for both of these constituencies, Manyala Keya for Lurambi and Soita Shitanda for Malava, have already aligned their resources behind Mudavadi.

In Bungoma County, home of the Bukusu, the biggest Luhya community, the largest constituencies in terms of numbers at the end of August, 2009 were Kimilili, with 320,000 people and Sirisia with 244,000. Again, both the sitting MPs for these constituencies, Eseli Simiyu for Kimilili and Moses Wetangula for Sirisia have already come out on Mudavadi’s side.

Of course it is quite possible that these MPs’ actions do not reflect the real will of their constituents or that these Census figures have no direct positive correlation with the numbers who will actually vote on polling day in this region.

The point is that any ODM leader or strategist who does not consider these figures carefully might be taking a very big political risk.

singular exception
How will the Luhya vote in the 2013 presidential, parliamentary and other county elections?
For all sitting MPs and aspiring candidates in this region, this is now the 30-million-shilling question. Choose the wrong side and the political ground could disappear from under your feet overnight.

In 2002, when the Luhya began smelling the presidency indirectly through Michael Kijana Wamalwa, they voted overwhelmingly for Ford Kenya, the party of Wamalwa’s choice. As a result, Wamalwa won every parliamentary seat in Luhyaland with the singular exception of Nambale, which Chris Okemo held onto by the skin of his teeth.

Will there be a new Mudavadi wave in 2013 akin to the Wamalwa wave of 2002? Given what is already happening on the ground in western Kenya, it appears as if that wave has already began building.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi.
[e-mail]

[gemagema]

Mwalimumkuu,

I have read Odipo’s article, and he sure shades more light on Western politics, except his analysis is more numerical than logical. He relates to county population numbers of regions of MPs who are now with Musalia and connotes that this numbers would translate to votes for Mudamba...but former elections have shown that this is not necessarily the case. MPs positions on politics, unless coming from very influential MPs, don’t always mirror the real political situation on the ground. Khalwale is only a noise maker, and Shitanda is just an MP like any other. Ask yourself why Shitanda has never run for presidency despite having a political party....

Odipo also naively compares Musalia Mudavadi with Snr Wamalwa Kijana. These two leaders are a distant apart. The charisma that Wamalwa had lacks in Mudavadi. True all were corrupt and had some skeletons of financial corruptions, however, Wamalwa was no such wimp like Mudavadi. Wamalwa also became more accepted, firstly among the Bukusu because he was handed over the mantle by Masinde Muliro. And yes, in 2002, Wamalwa delivered all Luhya constituencies besides that of Okemo...but Odipo should understand why this was possible at the time. This was the season of NARC...hence all Luhyas like many other communities cooperated to vote out KANU. The situation today is very different....there isn’t the NARC wave or the euphoria in sending home KANU.

Therefore, the political situation today does not give Mudavadi the advantage that Wamalwa had. If anything, the rumours/fact that URP is a statehouse related party is making many alienate themselves from Mudavadi. He seems not to be able to shed off his weak and unstable personality of a person always being used...Also Mudavadi is seeking a presidency in a time when the Luhyas themselves are divided. They have Eugene, Wetangula, Jirongo also in the race. And as I have always said, due to the poor relationship between the Bukusu and the Maragoli, the Bukusu people will not be easily wooed towards Mudavadi, yet they have decisive numbers. Remember alos that Mudavadi never supported one of the own, Wamalwa Kijana. That said, even Eugene will really struggle earning the Bukusus vote which at present is leaning more towards Raila Odinga. If you check the Bukusu facebook pages, you will realize that most youthful Bukusus do not like the idea of Wamalwa associating himself with Uhuru, whom they deem as criminal of PEV. Then I wonder if they will want to associate himself with Mudavadi, who inherited a party from Kibaki’s allies. Actually, it is the wish of many Bukusus and Luhyas that Eugene or Mudavadi would work with RAO. But as we all now know, the representatives of impunity, the anti-reformists, have used all tools available to snatch away the Western vote from ODM.

However, mwalimumkuu, you are very right when you write that Raila’s point men need him more than he needs him. However I hear that this is his deliberate new strategy, even though the strategy may have been born out of a lack of having no more powerful allies. While the Pentagon, which was made of real regional leaders besides Nyaga, was insurmountable and a good strategy for the 2007 election...its later effects were detrimental to ODM...all those leaders wanted power, real power hence they chipped off.

Notwithstanding, while I still wonder at how the likes of Namwamba can win Raila undecided votes, one must realise that Kenyans want reformers. Namwamba will not be the key reason of why Luhyas will vote for Raila, but Raila himself. Namwamba is there to create the noise, the euphoria that many youths love in seasons of campaigns. He is there to represent Raila, pass on Raila’s message and I guess organise the campaign rallies. Remember that Raila is still very popular on the ground; hence Namwamba will work with those Luhyas who are already with Raila to win the undecided ones.

[adongo23456]

Folks,

Here is one of the guys Odipo was talking about.

www.the-star.co.ke/local/western--nyanza/77310-udf-to-back-odm-in-round-two-of-polls-washiali

Why the wavering? Simple. Mudavadi would have no problem getting the so called Luhya vote. The reality is that Moi and Kibaki conned him that he will get the Kikuyu vote (assumption being that Uhuru will be TKO'd). From those in the know Uhuru himself made such hints to Mudavadi who then went to the M.Ps in the area and told them he has the Kikuyu vote and only needs help to take the whole thing in round one.

Uhuru has since bolted and made his move to go all the way possibly with Wamalwa. That is what has sent shock waves to the Western M.Ps who were ready to flock to Mudavadi. They know their guy has been conned. The people on the ground can see that. They know Mudavadi was being set up to help take down Raila and nothing else. Many of those M.ps are not willing to sink with that vote.

The other thing is the myth that M.Ps will bring votes. Most of those M.Ps will lose their seats. Some are stuck in the old thinking that if the M.P for a constituency supports a candidate then automatically the constituents must do the same. That is a fallacy. That is the same thinking that made some people believe that you take Mudavadi then automatically you have the Luhya votes. That ancient way of looking at things doesn't work very well sometimes. M.Ps will try to read the mood on the gorund so as not to be caught on the wrong side.

Simply put as long as Uhuru stays in the race, Mudavadi might as well save himself the embarrassment of coming last in round one. People will know it is a fake ploy and they know exactly for what purpose. They are not buying it as we have already seen.

[gemagema]

May 28, 2012 15:43:45 GMT 3 adongo23456 said:

Folks,

Here is one of the guys Odipo was talking about.

www.the-star.co.ke/local/western--nyanza/77310-udf-to-back-odm-in-round-two-of-polls-washiali

Why the wavering? Simple. Mudavadi would have no problem getting the so called Luhya vote. The reality is that Moi and Kibaki conned him that he will get the Kikuyu vote (assumption being that Uhuru will be TKO'd). From those in the know Uhuru himself made such hints to Mudavadi who then went to the M.Ps in the area and told them he has the Kikuyu vote and only needs help to take the whole thing in round one.

Uhuru has since bolted and made his move to go all the way possibly with Wamalwa. That is what has sent shock waves to the Western M.Ps who were ready to flock to Mudavadi. They know their guy has been conned. The people on the ground can see that. They know Mudavadi was being set up to help take down Raila and nothing else. Many of those M.ps are not willing to sink with that vote.

The other thing is the myth that M.Ps will bring votes. Most of those M.Ps will lose their seats. Some are stuck in the old thinking that if the M.P for a constituency supports a candidate then automatically the constituents must do the same. That is a fallacy. That is the same thinking that made some people believe that you take Mudavadi then automatically you have the Luhya votes. That ancient way of looking at things doesn't work very well sometimes. M.Ps will try to read the mood on the gorund so as not to be caught on the wrong side.

Simply put as long as Uhuru stays in the race, Mudavadi might as well save himself the embarrassment of coming last in round one. People will know it is a fake ploy and they know exactly for what purpose. They are not buying it as we have already seen.

Now, this is definitely interesting...its not long ago since Washiali disowned ODM, and now he already seems to be suffering from nostalgia. Am sure that now that Mudavadi's fortunes are dwindling faster than they were made, some of his constituents are obviously with RAO. Therefore, in order to appease his constituents while campaigning at Shianda Market, he had to try to win them by telling them something like ...we have not really ditched RAO,...we will vote for him in Round 2 because Mudavadi wont be making it....Simply, Washiali, and the other Luhya Mps with Mudavadi are regretting - they miscalculated.

However, what happens if Uhuru's ICC case blocks him from standing for presidency, hence consequently seconding Eugene Wamalwa who is his running mate? If Kikuyu's back Eugene, then Luhyas will also back Eugene bcos he will have better chances than Mudavadi....Such a case will definitely deny RAO the Western Vote. But I guess no one believes, as of now, that Eugene may be the next option, in the case that Uhuru is denied candidacy

[roughrider]

Adongo and others, I cannot believe Mudavadi made a big political move without any fore planning. It simply was not strategic. Information filtering from the meetings he has had suggests that this had not been planned or thought through including long term implications.

Simply sad.

It would appear that a cast of politicians played with Mudavadi’s excitable ego, making him think that he was more popular than Adam when they were alone with Eve. Now, he has served his purpose; that of splitting ODM votes further and has been cast aside now, like a cheap prostitute must be discarded along with the used condom, UDF.

We will continue watching and analyzing, and hoping that, somehow there is a better plan by Mudavadi. Presidential elections are not for the faint-hearted.

On the Odipo article, a few points:

First Mudavadi is making a strange argument. A few weeks ago, he was fighting tooth and nail for the ODM nominations because he thought ODM would win. Now he argues that ODM’s best chance was 2007? While his lieutenants are openly contemplating the second round beneficiaries of their votes?

Secondly, we must caution everybody against using MPs as measures of political support. Most of them will NOT be re-elected. We must also question the logic that says an MP can only influence voting in his or her constituency or district. The reality and the experience is much more complex. Ababu Namwamba, of Budalangi might still be a significant factor in Lurambi or Mumias.

Simiyu Eseli and Moses Wetangula have not come out on Mudavadi’s side or any side for that matter.

But all this is probably moot. What matters most are the ideas and the energy and the Mudavadi group are singularly obese and stale in this department.

[jakaswanga]

As someone who harshly criticized the Havard-trained Mr. Take it to the Bank analyst, saying the only narrative he dispensed in town was the ethnic one, I feel like eating a bit of humble pie as I read the calculations that informed the selection of Kenyan representatives to the regional parliament, EALA. Secondly, as I read the microscopic juggling of numbers [from Dominic Odipo above] and the laborious dissection of lineages [Ibrahim Oruko above], I can't help but acknowledge how influential this school is, amongst an elegant host of public pundits.

I think Mutahi Ngunyi perfectly understands, and portrays the thinking and instincts of the political elite adequately. There is indeed only one narrative in that Parliament of Mpigs, -ethnic math. They are as deaf to any alternative, as seasoned rocks to approaching storms. So, feeling warmed by a quip from Jukwaa's RoughRider, I console myself in this solitary alternative narrative by saying: in a political dispensation like Kenya, the instincts of the political elite are rarely in tune with the aspirations of the people they claim to represent. This is why they resort to rigging elections, mass intimidation of opponents, censorship of independent opinion, frenzied eating while the going still lasts, faking polls; and fear of the word INTEGRITY CLAUSE! If you are one with the people, you do not do the above. There is therefore in my opinion, enough distance between the people and their rulers for the coin to be still spinning in the air, suspended.

May 28, 2012 17:35:53 GMT 3 @roughrider said:

Secondly, we must caution everybody against using MPs as measures of political support. Most of them will NOT be re-elected. We must also question the logic that says an MP can only influence voting in his or her constituency or district. The reality and the experience is much more complex. Ababu Namwamba, of Budalangi might still be a significant factor in Lurambi or Mumias.
(...)
What matters most are the ideas and the energy and the Mudavadi group are singularly obese and stale in this department.

But now, Ruto and EALA.

Assuming equivalent competence to the others, Ng'eny had to be blocked by an alliance of forces [URP-UDF], chiefly to thwart an ODM/Raila breach of an assumed monopoly of Kalenjin loyalties by the Ruto patronage system, which has privatized and patented them! (in an era of free choice and mingling mark you!) That this kind of thinking managed to find a majority constituency in parliament, convinces me of the clarity with which Mutahi knows the takers of his services.

One cannot approach these people led by Mudavadi and Ruto with high-minded stories of the other role of the EALA parliament. That it should be like the original EEC council which prepared the legislative groundwork for the later EU, and its one currency the Euro. That EALA could lay down the legal infrastructure in which Companies from the region, Akamba, Nakumatt, Equity in the case of Kenya, can operate East-Africa-wide with the same trade license. That is, cutting down bureaucratic red-tape to zero for businesses. Essentially towards an economic merger of sorts.

Then ODM, PNU, URP-UDF et al, could vet and send candidates according to their analysis of the future, and preference of the nature of the East African Economic Zone they want as a party: towards a closer, more integrated union with the option of a single currency; or a looser trading zone with each country maintaining their distinct economic regimes?

That is the kind of ideological divide which would cut even between a husband and wife in the same bed; far outside the game of ethnic bonding and the maintenance of a one man Kingship (even as his personal tribulations like the prospect of jail in far lands should bother him more)

But as I see it, Many Mutahis will be needed to close up the loose ends after the comma. For instance the ones above [DID THE LUHYA REALLY JUMP WITH MUDAVADI?], how many subsets of the Bukusu can Wamalwa bring to the G(?)? if Wetangula is not roped in? How does Maragoli Mudavadi handle the Kisa and the Wanga who are 'in a way' related to Raila? But the Bunyore with their Otiato Marende too must be pleased somehow! How many posts are around to go around every subset? It is ethnic rocket science I suppose, but no doubt a la Mutahi whizzkids, who abound around the nation, are on top of it!

I will be watching. And perusing the print-outs once in a while.

But that this is what the potential dynamism of a young man like Ruto has come to, saddens me more than I care to admit. Wasted political talent which could have otherwise served the nation better. It is the sadness of a teacher meeting his once best pupil as a common market drunk, pissing in his pants in public.