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Post by nok on Oct 30, 2012 13:02:59 GMT 3
Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored.
In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya according to the constitution one needs as we all know
1. The popular vote 50 % + 1
2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47
So the questions are:-
-where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment -what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold -what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving -What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on ) e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions aside
At the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ;
Raila has 7 Counties locked up Uhuru has 11 Ruto approx 8 Kalonzo 3 Muds 2
The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent.
Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !
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Post by nok on Oct 30, 2012 13:24:50 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Nov 1, 2012 21:00:22 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Nov 6, 2012 20:14:54 GMT 3
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Post by mzee on Nov 6, 2012 20:43:09 GMT 3
Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored. In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya according to the constitution one needs as we all know 1. The popular vote 50 % + 1 2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47 So the questions are:- -where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment -what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold -what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving -What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on ) e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions asideAt the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ; Raila has 7 Counties locked up Uhuru has 11 Ruto approx 8 Kalonzo 3 Muds 2 The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent. Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !On what basis are these counties locked up? Too much unnecessary imagination from Uhuruto camp
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Post by reporter911 on Nov 6, 2012 20:59:57 GMT 3
Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored. In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya according to the constitution one needs as we all know 1. The popular vote 50 % + 1 2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47 So the questions are:- -where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment -what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold -what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving -What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on ) e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions asideAt the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ; Raila has 7 Counties locked up Uhuru has 11 Ruto approx 8 Kalonzo 3 Muds 2 The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent. Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !Uhuru"TNT" propaganda machine spin, soon it will be too close to call like in 2007 when the rigging is done in broad daylight.. Kenyans will never accept the repeat of 2007.. More Bloodshed due to propaganda will not be acceptable to Kenyans in 2013
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Post by phil on Nov 7, 2012 18:19:04 GMT 3
It is an insult of the highest order to the Obama/Biden campaign teams to attempt to equate them with MyDNAisTNA campaign. It is also inconceivable to imagine Barrack Obama as the rabid tribalist that Uhuru Kenyatta is. There is simply no comparison. We can be worried that Uhuru is now openly balkanizing the country but this time around Kenyans are well prepared for the usual shenanigans. Kibaki got away with it once....not again!! Not ever again!! You can take that to the bank.
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Post by nok on Nov 7, 2012 22:48:42 GMT 3
It is an insult of the highest order to the Obama/Biden campaign teams to attempt to equate them with MyDNAisTNA campaign. It is also inconceivable to imagine Barrack Obama as the rabid tribalist that Uhuru Kenyatta is. There is simply no comparison. We can be worried that Uhuru is now openly balkanizing the country but this time around Kenyans are well prepared for the usual shenanigans. Kibaki got away with it once....not again!! Not ever again!! You can take that to the bank. @ phil A replica or carbon copy ihas never had the quality of the original so your critic here is wrong. In no way can TNA rival Obama 2012 so no need to go there. My message is ODM should look at how to get the ground game to the right path not just on matters popular vote but also on the 'electoral county requirement = college
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Post by jakaswanga on Nov 8, 2012 0:03:42 GMT 3
A journey of a thousand kms, starts but with a single step, the chinese say. Or, by the time E = mcc, by Einsteinian physics, some Indian Guru sect needs to have spent centuries figuring out the concept of '0'! In this county by county math as UK strategists brainstorm, are the seeds of a great idea for Kenya. Well, just as we are late in most things, this balkanisation is already art form in the united states of America. There it is called 'statistical theory' of electoral maps! Have an idea below! www.270towin.com/simulation/[/b] [/size][/quote] www.270towin.com/simulation/visualizer_2012.php AND www.270towin.com/2012-election-polling-map/obama-romney/ Now for the genius which refines the formula specifically for the local, Kenyan situation! The general direction has already been pointed!
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Post by nok on Nov 8, 2012 19:16:32 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Dec 5, 2012 14:45:16 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Dec 8, 2012 18:14:08 GMT 3
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Post by Dumekenya on Dec 9, 2012 12:23:46 GMT 3
interesting times. The GEMA chauvinism at broad daylight play. They have always claimed that they have the numbers and the money why Desperate measures if they are sure about themselves especially having lured Ruto and Mudavadi what is the worry for. Washenzi hao.
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Dec 9, 2012 16:06:37 GMT 3
interesting times. The GEMA chauvinism at broad daylight play. They have always claimed that they have the numbers and the money why Desperate measures if they are sure about themselves especially having lured Ruto and Mudavadi what is the worry for. Washenzi hao. What desperate measures and worry are you referring to here? I see a group that is going on with its agenda and schedule as planned and expected. Do you mind explaining yourself a little more?
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Post by nowayhaha on Dec 9, 2012 18:15:59 GMT 3
Not so first here you have the numbers in raw format without the spinning Province Kibaki % Odinga % Kalonzo % Others % Votes Cast Registered Voters Turnout NAIROBI 313,478 47.7% 288,922 44.0% 52,974 8.1% 1,845 0.3% 657,219 1,275,021 51.5% COAST 197,354 33.1% 353,773 59.4% 38,881 6.5% 5,909 1.0% 595,917 1,045,629 57.0% NORTH EASTERN 97,263 50.3% 91,440 47.2% 4,498 2.3% 333 0.2% 193,534 315,664 61.3% EASTERN 835,481 50.4% 83,575 5.0% 726,782 43.8% 13,229 0.8% 1,659,067 2,516,998 65.9% CENTRAL 1,741,086 97.0% 34,046 1.9% 11,702 0.7% 7,215 0.4% 1,794,049 2,186,315 82.1% RIFT VALLEY 818,445 33.5% 1,580,880 64.6% 33,863 1.4% 12,300 0.5% 2,445,488 3,358,285 72.8% WESTERN 312,300 32.2% 639,246 65.9% 6,729 0.7% 11,417 1.2% 969,692 1,564,854 62.0% NYANZA 262,627 16.9% 1,280,978 82.4% 4,476 0.3% 7,160 0.5% 1,555,235 2,041,686 76.2% Totals 4,578,034 46.4% 4,352,860 44.1% 879,899 8.9% 59,408 0.6% 9,870,201 14,304,452 69.0% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_presidential_election,_2007
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Post by nok on Dec 11, 2012 16:28:49 GMT 3
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Post by OtishOtish on Dec 13, 2012 19:08:13 GMT 3
How will the Fuzzy Maths work out when people can't be bothered to register to vote?
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Post by nok on Dec 17, 2012 15:24:42 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Dec 18, 2012 22:55:06 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Jan 7, 2013 14:17:10 GMT 3
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 9, 2013 23:07:56 GMT 3
I think lots of propaganda to deliver all Kalenjin votes to Jubilee because Ruto moved! To copy-paste the 2007 dichotomy wont do for sure in every zone. For certain zones, definitely I think. Take Kikuyuni for example. If we conclude 100% went to Kibaki's PNU due to the ethnicity of Kibaki, we have to answer if that mentality is still in evidence, and is still the overriding motive for the next election. If yes, then again we denote Kikuyuni in whole to Uhuru Kenyatta. This will hold for Luoland too. And for all zones where we define ethnicity as the cornerstone. The controversy will arise in the swing areas. And the areas with a complex interplay of factors, like Nairobi. How much of Kalenjin votes move with Ruto to his new home? and how much remains with ODM? This math has to be be done also in Western province too, to ascribe numerical strengths to all coalitions. And I think this kind of swing-math requires a bit more sophisticated methodology than we have able to offer so far as Kenyans in general. In this Kenya-post article for instance, the whole of Kalenjin Rift Valley supposedly moves to Jubilee. I do not think that is a serious position. In fact I think it is stupid. The Kalenjin vote will be divided, it is the [mathematical] ratio which is still the mystery. Or better said, a reasonable estimate of the % partition CORD/JUBILEE. Haha Nok, too close to call, is too muddy to see through. Funny the relevant department of high maths [at the local universities] is not taking lead in this prognoses!
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Post by nok on Jan 10, 2013 12:51:44 GMT 3
I think lots of propaganda to deliver all Kalenjin votes to Jubilee because Ruto moved! To copy-paste the 2007 dichotomy wont do for sure in every zone. For certain zones, definitely I think. Take Kikuyuni for example. If we conclude 100% went to Kibaki's PNU due to the ethnicity of Kibaki, we have to answer if that mentality is still in evidence, and is still the overriding motive for the next election. If yes, then again we denote Kikuyuni in whole to Uhuru Kenyatta. This will hold for Luoland too. And for all zones where we define ethnicity as the cornerstone. The controversy will arise in the swing areas. And the areas with a complex interplay of factors, like Nairobi. How much of Kalenjin votes move with Ruto to his new home? and how much remains with ODM? This math has to be be done also in Western province too, to ascribe numerical strengths to all coalitions. And I think this kind of swing-math requires a bit more sophisticated methodology than we have able to offer so far as Kenyans in general. In this Kenya-post article for instance, the whole of Kalenjin Rift Valley supposedly moves to Jubilee. I do not think that is a serious position. In fact I think it is stupid. The Kalenjin vote will be divided, it is the [mathematical] ratio which is still the mystery. Or better said, a reasonable estimate of the % partition CORD/JUBILEE. Haha Nok, too close to call, is too muddy to see through. Funny the relevant department of high maths [at the local universities] is not taking lead in this prognoses! jakaswanga ;D I enjoy when you debunk my Junk Here is some more Junk source ;http://www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/facts-why-uhuru-ruto-are-winning-most.html Now Let me wait for some fake Opinion polls then I will see how I can bring in my Junk too
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Post by nok on Jan 10, 2013 15:21:54 GMT 3
Just for the fun of it without any factual basis ! Jubilee Coalition=Radical Conservatists= Radical rightRV; 0.66 *3,373,853=2249235 Jubilee ( Pro-Ruto Kipsigis/Nandi + Pro Kenyatta TNA zones; Urban centers e.g Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Molo, Burnt forest e.t.c) Central0.8*2190477=1752381 ( Pro Uhuru zones ) Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 (Pro Uhuru Embu+Meru; Pro Ngilu Kamba) Cave !! If Amani Coalition does not pick a Meru VP ;read -> Kiraitu Nyanza0.2*1954756=390951 (Pro Uhuru Kisii land + Diaspora pro Jubilee) Western 0 significance Coast0.3*1164083=387988 (Pro URP Rural Pro TNA Urban Pro Balala Influence) Northeastern0.3*347457=115807 ( Pro URP Pastoralists ) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 6483370 approx. 45 %Cord Coalition=Social democrats=Central leftistsRV 0.166*3373853=562308 Pro ODM diehards, progressive islands e.g Urban and Suburban RV / RV middle-class Kalenjin, diaspora ODM (based on ethnicity; Luos, Kambas, Luhya), Pastolists like Maasai ; Turkana Nations. Central0.1*2190477=175238 e.g Mau mau descendants Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 Pro Raila Meru, Pro Kalonzo Kambaland If Amani Coalition picks a Meru as VP !! Nyanza0.8*1954756=1563805 (Raila factor) Western0.5*1434987=717493 (Western - Amani influence) Coast0.666*1164083=775279 (Raila/Kalonzo/Joho+Crew Faktor) Northeastern0.333*347457=115807 (Pro Cord pastoralists) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 5496938 approx. 38%Amani Coalition = Centrists = right leaning liberalsRV 562308 ( Pro Kanu Moi factor / NVP Biwott factor / Transzoia Wamalwa-Kirwa factor ) Central 175238 ( Kibaki/ Statehse Project factor) Eastern if Amani picks Meru VP 697557 Meru Votes Nyanza 0 Western 0.50*1434987=717493 (Mudavadi/Wamalwa factor) Coast 0 Northeastern 0.3*347457=115807 Nairobi 0 Significance Grand Total 2268403 approx. 15%I am a pro Cord supporter but my Junk estimates worry me ! For CORD, the battle grounds are clear; based on the significance of swing votes out there and based on the quantity that can actually be converted/realised 1. RV; With the highest swing votes !! 2.Western 3.Nairobi 4. Eastern 5. CoastRight now Cord is ignoring RV at it's own peril. Without RV you will not beat Jubilee. Take my word to the bank ! There is a feeling among CORD supporters of RV that this is the case!! Based on my Junk estimates, resources should be directed to door to door campaigns, rallies, town hall meetings with opinion leaders, voter mobilization and logistics on election day and not forgetting policy adverts in the media ; esp, vernacular Airwaves, TV and Newspapers Nation, Standard and regional. Mobile messaging in partnership with Safaricom , Telekom you name it. My centi nusu Unedited
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 11, 2013 5:56:54 GMT 3
Just for the fun of it without any factual basis ! Jubilee Coalition=Radical Conservatists= Radical rightRV; 0.66 *3,373,853=2249235 Jubilee ( Pro-Ruto Kipsigis/Nandi + Pro Kenyatta TNA zones; Urban centers e.g Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Molo, Burnt forest e.t.c) Central0.8*2190477=1752381 ( Pro Uhuru zones ) Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 (Pro Uhuru Embu+Meru; Pro Ngilu Kamba) Cave !! If Amani Coalition does not pick a Meru VP ;read -> Kiraitu Nyanza0.2*1954756=390951 (Pro Uhuru Kisii land + Diaspora pro Jubilee) Western 0 significance Coast0.3*1164083=387988 (Pro URP Rural Pro TNA Urban Pro Balala Influence) Northeastern0.3*347457=115807 ( Pro URP Pastoralists ) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 6483370 approx. 45 %Cord Coalition=Social democrats=Central leftistsRV 0.166*3373853=562308 Pro ODM diehards, progressive islands e.g Urban and Suburban RV / RV middle-class Kalenjin, diaspora ODM (based on ethnicity; Luos, Kambas, Luhya), Pastolists like Maasai ; Turkana Nations. Central0.1*2190477=175238 e.g Mau mau descendants Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 Pro Raila Meru, Pro Kalonzo Kambaland If Amani Coalition picks a Meru as VP !! Nyanza0.8*1954756=1563805 (Raila factor) Western0.5*1434987=717493 (Western - Amani influence) Coast0.666*1164083=775279 (Raila/Kalonzo/Joho+Crew Faktor) Northeastern0.333*347457=115807 (Pro Cord pastoralists) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 5496938 approx. 38%Amani Coalition = Centrists = right leaning liberalsRV 562308 ( Pro Kanu Moi factor / NVP Biwott factor / Transzoia Wamalwa-Kirwa factor ) Central 175238 ( Kibaki/ Statehse Project factor) Eastern if Amani picks Meru VP 697557 Meru Votes Nyanza 0 Western 0.50*1434987=717493 (Mudavadi/Wamalwa factor) Coast 0 Northeastern 0.3*347457=115807 Nairobi 0 Significance Grand Total 2268403 approx. 15%I am a pro Cord supporter but my Junk estimates worry me ! For CORD, the battle grounds are clear; based on the significance of swing votes out there and based on the quantity that can actually be converted/realised 1. RV; With the highest swing votes !! 2.Western 3.Nairobi 4. Eastern 5. CoastRight now Cord is ignoring RV at it's own peril. Without RV you will not beat Jubilee. Take my word to the bank ! There is a feeling among CORD supporters of RV that this is the case!! Based on my Junk estimates, resources should be directed to door to door campaigns, rallies, town hall meetings with opinion leaders, voter mobilization and logistics on election day and not forgetting policy adverts in the media ; esp, vernacular Airwaves, TV and Newspapers Nation, Standard and regional. Mobile messaging in partnership with Safaricom , Telekom you name it. My centi nusu Unedited Nok, Thanks for your objectivity , you can see things for what they are and acknowledge the fact as it stands Jubilee is winning the upcomming elections. I hope you could also shed some light to Rais. www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleI....aringo-backyardThe Jubilee coalition has exuded confidence that it will win the General Election in the first round. Addressing rallies in Baringo County yesterday, the alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, said they have the numbers and dismissed opinion polls showing Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his CORD partners as favourites to win the polls. “Elections are won by numbers and nothing else, so let us face the facts and those showing signs of panic should accept the hard reality,” said Uhuru. Ruto added in Mogotio Constituency, “The writing is on the wall. The magicians of opinion polls should know that numbers don’t lie.” He said the coalition had done its calculations and they would garner around eight million votes in the elections — the first under the 2010 promulgated Constitution. Have numbers “We have the numbers to form the next government this year. Our team is focused and we will win the March election,” said the coalition’s deputy president designate. Ruto told Cord to prepare to be in the opposition, saying in Kiswahili; “Ukiona mwenzako ananyolewa nawe tia kichwa chako maji.” Prime Minister Raila Odinga has dismissed Jubilee Alliance’s claims that they have the numbers to win the election, saying opinion polls showed otherwise. Uhuru recalled conceding defeat in the 2002 election together with Ruto and said then they were not lucky but in March there are all indications that they will form the next government. “In 2002, luck was not with us after people with selfish interests deserted us and declared another candidate, but we accepted that. It is now ten years and all indications are that we will be the next occupants of State House,” he said. He said the Jubilee coalition was a pact of peace and unity to enable the country grow economically and stabilise. The team divided themselves in two groups that flew in three helicopters in order to cover four political rallies in Mogotio, Muchongoi, Churo and Kabarnet Town in the expansive county. In the campaign trail were Samuel Poghisio, Lee Kinyanjui, Moses Sekuda, Maison Leshomo, Moses Lessonet, Sammy Mwaita, William Cheptumo, Aden Duale, and Mohammed Mohammud. Ruto explained to voters in the region that he joined hands with Uhuru to show the whole world that Kikuyus and Kalenjins were not enemies. “I decided to form a political pact with Uhuru because we want the world to know that Kenyans have faith in us and they don’t believe we participated in the 2008 post-election violence,” said Ruto. Tana security On insecurity in the Tana Delta and parts of Baringo County, Ruto challenged security forces to be more firm on perpetrators of violence, saying the newly appointed Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo and police officers should “pull up their socks and tighten their belts” to improve security. “We cannot expand the economy if we can’t protect the lives and property of the people of Kenya,” he said. Uhuru and Ruto challenged Kanu chairman Gideon Moi to join URP, saying it was the party of choice in the region and that if he wanted to be the first Senator of Baringo County he should re-think his political stand. “We have a lot of respect for former president Moi but Kanu’s time in Baringo County is over. He was the defender of pastoralists. We want the people of Baringo to vote ‘six-piece-style’ in the coming general election,” he said. Uhuru added that his government would respect retired leaders, as they are like a gem to society. “We respect Moi and when President Kibaki retires, we will treat him well as well,” he said. Duale also put on notice Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, telling her to defect to URP or lose her parliamentary seat. The Dujis MP said Jubilee would ensure equality, improve the economy and engage the youth and women in meaningful development through provision of cheap loans. Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=7722&page=2#ixzz2HdFbY5i8
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Post by OtishOtish on Jan 11, 2013 6:26:26 GMT 3
And at the same time ... the UN estimates that for 2013 Kenya will need about $800 million on "donor aid" (for food, education, health, etc.) and has launched a "drive" to that end. But what the heck .. we've got coalitions and defections and defacations and all sort of *itions to worry about. Kazi iendelee.
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