Maths;Election 2013;Pathway to Victory

[nok]

Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored.

In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya
according to the constitution one needs as we all know

1. The popular vote 50 % + 1

2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47

So the questions are:-

-where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment
-what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold
-what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving
-What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on )
e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions aside

At the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ;

Raila has 7 Counties locked up
Uhuru has 11
Ruto approx 8
Kalonzo 3
Muds 2

The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent.

Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !

[nok]

[nok]

[nok]

www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-94302/uhuru-zones-kenya

Jukwaa / ODM / RAO Presidential sekretariat / ODM reloaded / FORA.

Uhuru's team is doing an Obama 2008 Replica.

Mac the Cain didn't realize what hit him. RAO Mc Cain u r Agamates but .....

Wake Up and up your game.

[mzee]

Oct 30, 2012 13:02:59 GMT 3 nok said:

Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored.

In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya
according to the constitution one needs as we all know

1. The popular vote 50 % + 1

2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47

So the questions are:-

-where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment
-what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold
-what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving
-What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on )
e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions aside

At the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ;

Raila has 7 Counties locked up
Uhuru has 11
Ruto approx 8
Kalonzo 3
Muds 2

The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent.

Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !

On what basis are these counties locked up? Too much unnecessary imagination from Uhuruto camp

[reporter911]

Oct 30, 2012 13:02:59 GMT 3 nok said:

Now Jukwaa here is one area we have kind of ignored.

In order for XY or XX to win the presidency of the Rep. of Kenya
according to the constitution one needs as we all know

1. The popular vote 50 % + 1

2. 25 % of the vote in 24/47

So the questions are:-

-where do the leading contenders find themselves at the moment
-what coalitions does one need to supersede the threshold
-what is the game plan to prevent opponents from achieving
-What resources does one need and how do you spend them ( where should one emphasize on )
e.t.c all seen purely in terms of Numbers emotions aside

At the Moment the 4 th Estate claims ;

Raila has 7 Counties locked up
Uhuru has 11
Ruto approx 8
Kalonzo 3
Muds 2

The Polls on the other part show that Raila leads the popular Vote by approx 40- to Uhuru's 30- t0 Ruto's 15 percent.

Jukwaa lets Crunch the numbers !

Uhuru"TNT" propaganda machine spin, soon it will be too close to call like in 2007 when the rigging is done in broad daylight.. Kenyans will never accept the repeat of 2007.. More Bloodshed due to propaganda will not be acceptable to Kenyans in 2013

[phil]

Nov 6, 2012 20:14:54 GMT 3 nok said:

www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-94302/uhuru-zones-kenya

Jukwaa / ODM / RAO Presidential sekretariat / ODM reloaded / FORA.

Uhuru's team is doing an Obama 2008 Replica.

Mac the Cain didn't realize what hit him. RAO Mc Cain u r Agamates but .....

Wake Up and up your game.

It is an insult of the highest order to the Obama/Biden campaign teams to attempt to equate them with MyDNAisTNA campaign.

It is also inconceivable to imagine Barrack Obama as the rabid tribalist that Uhuru Kenyatta is.

There is simply no comparison. We can be worried that Uhuru is now openly balkanizing the country but this time around Kenyans are well prepared for the usual shenanigans. Kibaki got away with it once....not again!! Not ever again!! You can take that to the bank.

[nok]

Nov 7, 2012 18:19:04 GMT 3 phil said:

Nov 6, 2012 20:14:54 GMT 3 nok said:

www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-94302/uhuru-zones-kenya

Jukwaa / ODM / RAO Presidential sekretariat / ODM reloaded / FORA.

Uhuru's team is doing an Obama 2008 Replica.

Mac the Cain didn't realize what hit him. RAO Mc Cain u r Agamates but .....

Wake Up and up your game.

It is an insult of the highest order to the Obama/Biden campaign teams to attempt to equate them with MyDNAisTNA campaign.

It is also inconceivable to imagine Barrack Obama as the rabid tribalist that Uhuru Kenyatta is.

There is simply no comparison. We can be worried that Uhuru is now openly balkanizing the country but this time around Kenyans are well prepared for the usual shenanigans. Kibaki got away with it once....not again!! Not ever again!! You can take that to the bank.

@ phil

A replica or carbon copy ihas never had the quality of the original so your critic here is wrong. In no way can TNA rival Obama 2012 so no need to go there. My message is ODM should look at how to get the ground game to the right path not just on matters popular vote but also on the 'electoral county requirement = college

[jakaswanga]

Nov 6, 2012 20:14:54 GMT 3 nok said:

www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-94302/uhuru-zones-kenya
Jukwaa / ODM / RAO Presidential sekretariat / ODM reloaded / FORA.
Uhuru's team is doing an Obama 2008 Replica.
Mac the Cain didn't realize what hit him. RAO Mc Cain u r Agamates but ..... Wake Up and up your game.

A journey of a thousand kms, starts but with a single step, the chinese say. Or, by the time E = mcc, by Einsteinian physics, some Indian Guru sect needs to have spent centuries figuring out the concept of '0'!

In this county by county math as UK strategists brainstorm, are the seeds of a great idea for Kenya. Well, just as we are late in most things, this balkanisation is already art form in the united states of America. There it is called 'statistical theory' of electoral maps!
Have an idea below!
www.270towin.com/simulation/

Turning Polls into Probabilities

Although it is rarely presented this way, statistical theory makes it possible to take the results of a scientifically-conducted state poll and calculate the probability that each candidate will actually win that state's popular vote, and thus collect its Electoral Votes. For example, let's say that a scientifically-conducted poll for Missouri (10 Electoral Votes) comes back 48% for Candidate A and 44% for Candidate B, with 8% other, undecided or some other response. The question we are trying to answer is: "Given these results, what is the probability that Candidate A will actually get more votes than Candidate B in Missouri?" Assuming a sample size of 600 (see #3 in Important Notes, below), the answer is about 85%. That means there is an 85% chance Candidate A will win the state's 10 Electoral Votes.

Important Notes
1. Most polls provide a result, with a margin of error (e.g. +/- 4%). Essentially what we are doing here is reversing that presentation to say - "Given the margin of error and the polling percentages, how likely is it that the poll's predicted winner is correct?" Note that all we are interested in is the probability of winning here… a victory by 50 votes is the same as a victory by one million votes… the winner gets the Electoral College bounty for that state.

2.The calculated probabilities are valid even for results that are within the margin of error. As long as the poll is conducted properly, we can calculate how likely it is that the poll's predicted winner is correct. Obviously, as the results narrow, the probabilities get closer to 50/50.
3.
The sample size is important to the calculations as it impacts the margin of error. Larger sample size means a smaller margin of error. A smaller margin of error impacts the probability that the poll's predicted winner is correct. For example, a Candidate A 48%- Candidate B 44% poll with sample size of 600 yields an 85% probability that A > B, while the same 48-44 result with a sample size of 1,200 yields a 93% probability that A > B. Sample size is often shown as "n =" when poll results are displayed.

[/b]
[/size][/quote]
www.270towin.com/simulation/visualizer_2012.php
AND
www.270towin.com/2012-election-polling-map/obama-romney/

Now for the genius which refines the formula specifically for the local, Kenyan situation! The general direction has already been pointed!

[nok]

swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/print/

[nok]

Found this here;

www.thekenyanpost.com/2012/12/a-phone-call-from-kibaki-saved-mudavadi.html

And in the comments

5 December 2012 00:39
grace joseph said...
Uhuru Kenyatta- William Ruto alliance could turn out to be such a formidable political force.Uhuru would certainly carry more than 70% in Nyandarua, Nyeri,
Kirinyaga, Muranga, Kiambu, Laikipia and Nakuru. He would then, on his own, be
assured of getting at least 25 PER CENT of the vote in at least 13 other
counties. He could get at least 25 per cent of the vote in Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot, Nairobi, Lamu, Mombasa, Kisii, Nyamira, Narok and Kajiado.So, on his own, Uhuru could pull in at least 20 counties, only 4 short of what Section 138 requires for an outright presidential victory.Now, take William Ruto.If he retains his traditional support base, which it appears he will, then he would, on his own, win more than 70 per cent of the vote in at least 7 counties.He would carry Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Kericho and Bomet. And so, right there, Uhuru and Ruto would already have carried 27 counties, enough to guarantee Uhuru the presidency, if only they can manage to garner 50 per cent plus one of the total presidential ballots that would have been cast but not spoiled.Take Prime Minister Raila Odinga. On his own, the Prime Minister is sure of getting at least 70 per cent of the vote in only 4 counties. These counties are Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori.He is also virtually sure of getting at least 25 per cent of the vote in at least 12 other counties. These other
counties are Busia, Mombasa, Taita-Taveta, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Turkana,
Narok, Kajiado, Kisii, Nyamira and Nairobi. That means that, on his own steam,
the Prime Minister could reach the constitutional minimum in only about 15
counties. Vice President Kalonzo would be sure of bringing only three other counties onto the table.These would be his native Kitui, Machakos and Makueni. He would probably be able to raise an additional 25 per cent of the vote in Mombasa, Kwale and Embu. That means that the Odinga-Kalonzo ticket would be able to carry only 19 or 20 counties, four or so short of the mandatory 24 counties.Of course, these projections are not statistically exact. But they don’t need to be to make the point that, to defeat the Uhuru-Ruto ticket is not going to be a walk in the park if the rest of the presidential aspirants do not wake up to the political realities now emerging.They need to study the electoral map very carefully, sniff out the major electoral dynamics and then move on and see how they can best counter this looming Uhuru-Ruto juggernaut.Facts, as they say, speak louder than words. According to figures from the defunct Electoral Commision of Kenya (ECK), Raila Odinga received 1,580,880 votes from the Rift Valley Province in the 2007 presidential elections. This figure exceeded what he got form his native Nyanza Province by almost 300,000 votes.If the majority of these voters elect to follow Ruto, then more than one million votes could be automatically wiped out from Odinga’s columns come the next presidential elections. From where would he expect to replace such large numbers of voters?According to those same figures, Raila received a total of 639,246 votes from Western Province.But that was before Musalia Mudavadi, the region’s most senior politician, took off to join uhuruto.If
Raila loses, say, only half a million votes from Western Province next year,
where would he expect to replace them from?Could the Prime Minister be in much more serious political trouble or danger than his people have yet realised? Even watermelon juice cant change the bitter juice from orange.

5 December 2012 00:39

Can someone on the ground who is knowledgeable counter this ?

Would really appreciate it.

[nok]

www.kenyan-post.com/2012/12/judging-from-past-elections-who-is.html

[Dumekenya]

interesting times. The GEMA chauvinism at broad daylight play. They have always claimed that they have the numbers and the money why Desperate measures if they are sure about themselves especially having lured Ruto and Mudavadi what is the worry for. Washenzi hao.

[mwalimumkuu]

Dec 9, 2012 12:23:46 GMT 3 Dumekenya said:

interesting times. The GEMA chauvinism at broad daylight play. They have always claimed that they have the numbers and the money why Desperate measures if they are sure about themselves especially having lured Ruto and Mudavadi what is the worry for. Washenzi hao.

What desperate measures and worry are you referring to here? I see a group that is going on with its agenda and schedule as planned and expected. Do you mind explaining yourself a little more?

[nowayhaha]

Dec 8, 2012 18:14:08 GMT 3 nok said:

www.kenyan-post.com/2012/12/judging-from-past-elections-who-is.html

Not so first here you have the numbers in raw format without the spinning



Province Kibaki % Odinga % Kalonzo % Others % Votes Cast Registered Voters Turnout
NAIROBI 313,478 47.7% 288,922 44.0% 52,974 8.1% 1,845 0.3% 657,219 1,275,021 51.5%
COAST 197,354 33.1% 353,773 59.4% 38,881 6.5% 5,909 1.0% 595,917 1,045,629 57.0%
NORTH EASTERN 97,263 50.3% 91,440 47.2% 4,498 2.3% 333 0.2% 193,534 315,664 61.3%
EASTERN 835,481 50.4% 83,575 5.0% 726,782 43.8% 13,229 0.8% 1,659,067 2,516,998 65.9%
CENTRAL 1,741,086 97.0% 34,046 1.9% 11,702 0.7% 7,215 0.4% 1,794,049 2,186,315 82.1%
RIFT VALLEY 818,445 33.5% 1,580,880 64.6% 33,863 1.4% 12,300 0.5% 2,445,488 3,358,285 72.8%
WESTERN 312,300 32.2% 639,246 65.9% 6,729 0.7% 11,417 1.2% 969,692 1,564,854 62.0%
NYANZA 262,627 16.9% 1,280,978 82.4% 4,476 0.3% 7,160 0.5% 1,555,235 2,041,686 76.2%
Totals 4,578,034 46.4% 4,352,860 44.1% 879,899 8.9% 59,408 0.6% 9,870,201 14,304,452 69.0%


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_presidential_election,_2007

[nok]

www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000072582&pageNo=2&story_title=Kenya---How-Uhuru,-Ruto-beat-Raila-to-Mudavadi

According to an influential insider in the Uhuru camp, the coalition is targeting at least 10 million votes in its strongholds in Central and Mt Kenya including Embu and Meru regions, the Kikuyu diaspora counties of Laikipia and Nakuru, Kalenjin

Rift Valley, Western Kenya and its diaspora as well as Nairobi. “This, we believe will be sufficient numbers for an electoral victory in the first round as alluded to by Mr Mudavadi during the unveiling of the alliance,” says the TNA insider.

The alliance also believes it can guarantee to achieve a constitutional threshold of 25 percent in 11 counties including Nairobi in Uhuru’s stronghold, eight in Ruto’s stronghold including Trans Nzoia and West Pokot and four in Mudavadi’s Western strongholds.

“That makes a total of 23 guaranteed counties even before you add friendly areas and home regions of some of our key leaders,” says the insider.

[OtishOtish]

How will the Fuzzy Maths work out when people can't be bothered to register to vote?

[nok]

www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-99576/why-uhuru-wont-pass-ball-mudavadi

The shifting political dynamics all boil down to a game of numbers and they are loud and clear. For instance, a large voter turnout, say 75%, in the TNA-compliant 15-county cluster of Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Laikipia, Nakuru, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera would give Uhuru the greatest jet propulsion leap, coming off the starting blocks in the first round, of all the presidential candidates on the basis of backyard and affiliated counties’ votes – a staggering prospective 4.5 million.

In 2007 in these areas, Kibaki garnered 3,060,396 votes (79 per cent) and Raila 405,258 (seven per cent).

The 11-county cluster of Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Bomet, Kericho, Turkana, Samburu, Narok, West Pokot and Garissa would, on a 71% turnout, produce 2.7 million votes. In 2007 this area voted overwhelmingly for Raila, 1,297,881 votes (77%) against Kibaki’s 286,356 (22%).

Ruto’s utility in the TNA Pact is to ensure that as many of these votes do not go to Raila this time as possible. But are the Rift Valley grassroots with Ruto? Rift Valley politicos are certainly wary of the Ruto factor, which has carried the Rift Valley vote in two national referenda on constitutional review (2005 and 2010) and the 2007 General Election, breaking the Daniel arap Moi hold on RV in the process.

In Luhyaland, the three-county cluster of Kakamega, Vihiga and Busia could well muster 1.5 million voters in 2013. It had a total of 1,149,343 voters in 2007, of whom 525,117 (or 75% of the turnout) voted for Raila and only 172,745 (24%) for Kibaki. In the other Luhya battleground counties of Trans Nzoia and Bungoma, Kibaki beat Raila 55% to 44%.

Mudavadi’s utility in the TNA Pact as well as Eugene Wamalwa’s (he was early in the week reliably reported to be heading in the Jubilee Alliance’s direction) is to deny Raila as many of these votes as possible. But this is a tall order indeed, particularly if neither Luhya candidate is running for President.

When reports of Mudavadi having defected to the Jubilee Alliance first surfaced, there were reports from his native Maragoli hinterland to the effect that angry crowds had torched a number of UDM branch offices.

But when online rumours of a strategic deal-within-a deal in which Uhuru would hand over the TNA Pact to Mudavadi at the last moment and Ruto would step aside for Industrialisation Minister and ODM stalwart Henry Kosgey surfaced, the Maragoli grassroots and quite a few other political formations paused for breath.

However, his date with the ICC notwithstanding, Uhuru remained in place at the head of the TNA Pact, knowing full well that the secret MoU Mudavadi holds at Riverside has no effect in either real politik or law and Kosgey showed no sign whatsoever of abandoning ODM and rushing to Ruto’s side.

In his own backyard cluster of counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Migori, and Homa Bay, the PM can count on at least 1.3 million votes in 2013. In 2007 Kibaki was a complete nonstarter in this Luo region, with 31,981 votes to Raila’s 1,052,515.

In 2007, Raila overwhelmingly had the Luo vote, the Kalenjin vote and the Luhya vote, garnering a terrific 4,313,219 votes (or 43%) to Kibaki’s 4,582,499 (or 47%), a result that ODM flatly rejected and screamed fraud in a shout and a crisis heard right around the world.

The eight-county cluster of Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Kisii, Nyamira, Tana River and Taita Taveta gave Raila 548,797 votes in 2007 (53%) and Kibaki 427,617 (42%). The TNA Pact’s game-plan for this cluster is for all its three leading lights to manage to bring a chunk of the vote to the table. The Coast and Kisii-land have seen some of the most frenetic campaign rallies across the political divide.

Capital city Nairobi, which as of Monday this week had registered more than 900,000 voters (or 67.67%) in the ongoing excruciatingly slow biometric voter registration (BVR) exercise, had 1,275,445 registered voters under the now-defunct Voter’s Roll of 2007, of whom 47% voted for Kibaki and 43% for Raila.

The BVR voter registration may have proceeded at a snail’s pace, but whatever the final number of Kenyans registered, the turnout on election day is bound to be impressive indeed.

After all, the voters have six candidates to vote for and some of those who abjure voting for President for whatever reason will surely vote for Governor, Senator, or Women’s Representative, etc.

[nok]

www.kenyan-post.com/2012/12/how-regions-have-registered-their-votes.html



Have a look at this folks !

[nok]

www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/uhuru-kenyatta-will-beat-raila-odinga.html

Interesting figures ; fact or Propaganda ?

[jakaswanga]

Jan 7, 2013 14:17:10 GMT 3 nok said:

www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/uhuru-kenyatta-will-beat-raila-odinga.html

Interesting figures ; fact or Propaganda ?

I think lots of propaganda to deliver all Kalenjin votes to Jubilee because Ruto moved!

To copy-paste the 2007 dichotomy wont do for sure in every zone. For certain zones, definitely I think. Take Kikuyuni for example. If we conclude 100% went to Kibaki's PNU due to the ethnicity of Kibaki, we have to answer if that mentality is still in evidence, and is still the overriding motive for the next election. If yes, then again we denote Kikuyuni in whole to Uhuru Kenyatta. This will hold for Luoland too. And for all zones where we define ethnicity as the cornerstone.

The controversy will arise in the swing areas. And the areas with a complex interplay of factors, like Nairobi.

How much of Kalenjin votes move with Ruto to his new home? and how much remains with ODM? This math has to be be done also in Western province too, to ascribe numerical strengths to all coalitions. And I think this kind of swing-math requires a bit more sophisticated methodology than we have able to offer so far as Kenyans in general.

In this Kenya-post article for instance, the whole of Kalenjin Rift Valley supposedly moves to Jubilee. I do not think that is a serious position. In fact I think it is stupid. The Kalenjin vote will be divided, it is the [mathematical] ratio which is still the mystery. Or better said, a reasonable estimate of the % partition CORD/JUBILEE.

Haha Nok, too close to call, is too muddy to see through. Funny the relevant department of high maths [at the local universities] is not taking lead in this prognoses!

[nok]

Jan 9, 2013 23:07:56 GMT 3 jakaswanga said:

Jan 7, 2013 14:17:10 GMT 3 nok said:

www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/uhuru-kenyatta-will-beat-raila-odinga.html

Interesting figures ; fact or Propaganda ?

I think lots of propaganda to deliver all Kalenjin votes to Jubilee because Ruto moved!

To copy-paste the 2007 dichotomy wont do for sure in every zone. For certain zones, definitely I think. Take Kikuyuni for example. If we conclude 100% went to Kibaki's PNU due to the ethnicity of Kibaki, we have to answer if that mentality is still in evidence, and is still the overriding motive for the next election. If yes, then again we denote Kikuyuni in whole to Uhuru Kenyatta. This will hold for Luoland too. And for all zones where we define ethnicity as the cornerstone.

The controversy will arise in the swing areas. And the areas with a complex interplay of factors, like Nairobi.

How much of Kalenjin votes move with Ruto to his new home? and how much remains with ODM? This math has to be be done also in Western province too, to ascribe numerical strengths to all coalitions. And I think this kind of swing-math requires a bit more sophisticated methodology than we have able to offer so far as Kenyans in general.

In this Kenya-post article for instance, the whole of Kalenjin Rift Valley supposedly moves to Jubilee. I do not think that is a serious position. In fact I think it is stupid. The Kalenjin vote will be divided, it is the [mathematical] ratio which is still the mystery. Or better said, a reasonable estimate of the % partition CORD/JUBILEE.

Haha Nok, too close to call, is too muddy to see through. Funny the relevant department of high maths [at the local universities] is not taking lead in this prognoses!

jakaswanga ;D

I enjoy when you debunk my Junk

Here is some more Junk

This is the updated voter registration by IEBC

R. Valley: 3,373,853
Central: 2,190,477
Eastern: 2,092,883
Nyanza: 1,954,756
Nairobi: 1,778,903
Western: 1,434,987
Coast: 1,164,083
North East: 347,457 Total: 14,337,399

Now I understand why the CORD leadership is asking for more time for registration. They have looked at the numbers and they are panicking. The numbers do not simply add up on their favor.

TNA/URP alliance has the numbers to win in first round. There is no way under the sun politically, arithmetically or otherwise the figures can be changed or cooked in their favor. If you doubt take a calculator.....

1. Donate all Western and Nyanza votes to ODM which is an impossibility since we have Kisii, Kikuyus, and Kalenjins living in Nyanza and Western.

2. Donate half of Nairobi, Eastern and North Eastern and three quarters of Coast to ODM which is still too generous because Nairobi is aTNA zone that's why ODM wants to directly nominate Bishop Wanjiru to split the kikuyu votes. Coast is also turning out to be a Jubilee zone they don't want to be left out in government. But for the purpose of this we shall not include Mombasa, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Kilifi which are highly cosmopolitan in favor of jubilee. We have not also factored Ngilu's contribution and the fact that TNA/URP are going to get substantial Eastern votes.

3. Donate about 400k votes to ODM from Rift Valley though as Ruto said the Achicha goons are not more than thirty in Rift Valley. If tinga gets half a million votes in Rift Valley, I will buy free lunch to ten people who are willing to bet. Franklin bett did not quit the race for fun. The ground is highly hostile to anything ODM. He avoided writing his own political obituary. Rift Valley is highly a URP zone with towns being TNA like Nakuru, Naivasha etc

4. Donate about 90k votes to ODM from Central, last time tinga got a paltry 34k. If the figure doubles I will be shocked!

5. Add the remaining votes not donated 2.97m Rift Valley +2.1m Central +0 Votes Nyanza+ 1m Eastern+ 889k Nairobi+ 0 Votes Western + 300k Votes Coast+173k North Eastern=7.5million votes for TNA/ URP which is about 52%.

CORD is running desperate they are using the courts to try and block UHURUTO from running via the civil society. I believe the sovereign power of the people of Kenya vests with the people themselves.

source ;http://www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/facts-why-uhuru-ruto-are-winning-most.html

Now Let me wait for some fake Opinion polls then I will see how I can bring in my Junk too

[nok]

Voter registration by IEBC

R. Valley: 3,373,853
Central: 2,190,477
Eastern: 2,092,883
Nyanza: 1,954,756
Nairobi: 1,778,903
Western: 1,434,987
Coast: 1,164,083
North East: 347,457

Total: 14,337,399

Just for the fun of it without any factual basis !

Jubilee Coalition=Radical Conservatists= Radical right

RV; 0.66 *3,373,853=2249235 Jubilee ( Pro-Ruto Kipsigis/Nandi + Pro Kenyatta TNA zones; Urban centers e.g Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Molo, Burnt forest e.t.c)

Central0.8*2190477=1752381 ( Pro Uhuru zones )

Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 (Pro Uhuru Embu+Meru; Pro Ngilu Kamba)

Cave !! If Amani Coalition does not pick a Meru VP ;read -> Kiraitu

Nyanza0.2*1954756=390951 (Pro Uhuru Kisii land + Diaspora pro Jubilee)

Western 0 significance

Coast0.3*1164083=387988 (Pro URP Rural Pro TNA Urban Pro Balala Influence)

Northeastern0.3*347457=115807 ( Pro URP Pastoralists )

Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451

Grand Total 6483370 approx. 45 %



Cord Coalition=Social democrats=Central leftists

RV 0.166*3373853=562308 Pro ODM diehards, progressive
islands e.g Urban and Suburban RV / RV middle-class Kalenjin, diaspora ODM (based on ethnicity; Luos, Kambas, Luhya), Pastolists like Maasai ; Turkana Nations.

Central0.1*2190477=175238 e.g Mau mau descendants

Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 Pro Raila Meru, Pro Kalonzo Kambaland

If Amani Coalition picks a Meru as VP !!

Nyanza0.8*1954756=1563805 (Raila factor)

Western0.5*1434987=717493 (Western - Amani influence)

Coast0.666*1164083=775279 (Raila/Kalonzo/Joho+Crew Faktor)

Northeastern0.333*347457=115807 (Pro Cord pastoralists)

Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451


Grand Total 5496938 approx. 38%

Amani Coalition = Centrists = right leaning liberals

RV 562308 ( Pro Kanu Moi factor / NVP Biwott factor / Transzoia Wamalwa-Kirwa factor )
Central 175238 ( Kibaki/ Statehse Project factor)
Eastern if Amani picks Meru VP 697557 Meru Votes
Nyanza 0
Western 0.50*1434987=717493 (Mudavadi/Wamalwa factor)
Coast 0
Northeastern 0.3*347457=115807
Nairobi 0 Significance

Grand Total 2268403 approx. 15%

I am a pro Cord supporter but my Junk estimates worry me !

For CORD, the battle grounds are clear; based on the significance of swing votes out there and based on the quantity that can actually be converted/realised
1. RV; With the highest swing votes !!
2.Western
3.Nairobi
4. Eastern
5. Coast

Right now Cord is ignoring RV at it's own peril. Without RV you will not beat Jubilee. Take my word to the bank !

There is a feeling among CORD supporters of RV that this is the case!!

Based on my Junk estimates, resources should be directed to door to door campaigns, rallies, town hall meetings with opinion leaders, voter mobilization and logistics on election day and not forgetting policy adverts in the media ; esp, vernacular Airwaves, TV and Newspapers Nation, Standard and regional. Mobile messaging in partnership with Safaricom , Telekom you name it.

My centi nusu

Unedited

[nowayhaha]

Jan 10, 2013 15:21:54 GMT 3 nok said:

Voter registration by IEBC

R. Valley: 3,373,853
Central: 2,190,477
Eastern: 2,092,883
Nyanza: 1,954,756
Nairobi: 1,778,903
Western: 1,434,987
Coast: 1,164,083
North East: 347,457

Total: 14,337,399

Just for the fun of it without any factual basis !

Jubilee Coalition=Radical Conservatists= Radical right

RV; 0.66 *3,373,853=2249235 Jubilee ( Pro-Ruto Kipsigis/Nandi + Pro Kenyatta TNA zones; Urban centers e.g Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Molo, Burnt forest e.t.c)

Central0.8*2190477=1752381 ( Pro Uhuru zones )

Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 (Pro Uhuru Embu+Meru; Pro Ngilu Kamba)

Cave !! If Amani Coalition does not pick a Meru VP ;read -> Kiraitu

Nyanza0.2*1954756=390951 (Pro Uhuru Kisii land + Diaspora pro Jubilee)

Western 0 significance

Coast0.3*1164083=387988 (Pro URP Rural Pro TNA Urban Pro Balala Influence)

Northeastern0.3*347457=115807 ( Pro URP Pastoralists )

Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451

Grand Total 6483370 approx. 45 %



Cord Coalition=Social democrats=Central leftists

RV 0.166*3373853=562308 Pro ODM diehards, progressive
islands e.g Urban and Suburban RV / RV middle-class Kalenjin, diaspora ODM (based on ethnicity; Luos, Kambas, Luhya), Pastolists like Maasai ; Turkana Nations.

Central0.1*2190477=175238 e.g Mau mau descendants

Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 Pro Raila Meru, Pro Kalonzo Kambaland

If Amani Coalition picks a Meru as VP !!

Nyanza0.8*1954756=1563805 (Raila factor)

Western0.5*1434987=717493 (Western - Amani influence)

Coast0.666*1164083=775279 (Raila/Kalonzo/Joho+Crew Faktor)

Northeastern0.333*347457=115807 (Pro Cord pastoralists)

Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451


Grand Total 5496938 approx. 38%

Amani Coalition = Centrists = right leaning liberals

RV 562308 ( Pro Kanu Moi factor / NVP Biwott factor / Transzoia Wamalwa-Kirwa factor )
Central 175238 ( Kibaki/ Statehse Project factor)
Eastern if Amani picks Meru VP 697557 Meru Votes
Nyanza 0
Western 0.50*1434987=717493 (Mudavadi/Wamalwa factor)
Coast 0
Northeastern 0.3*347457=115807
Nairobi 0 Significance

Grand Total 2268403 approx. 15%

I am a pro Cord supporter but my Junk estimates worry me !

For CORD, the battle grounds are clear; based on the significance of swing votes out there and based on the quantity that can actually be converted/realised
1. RV; With the highest swing votes !!
2.Western
3.Nairobi
4. Eastern
5. Coast

Right now Cord is ignoring RV at it's own peril. Without RV you will not beat Jubilee. Take my word to the bank !

There is a feeling among CORD supporters of RV that this is the case!!

Based on my Junk estimates, resources should be directed to door to door campaigns, rallies, town hall meetings with opinion leaders, voter mobilization and logistics on election day and not forgetting policy adverts in the media ; esp, vernacular Airwaves, TV and Newspapers Nation, Standard and regional. Mobile messaging in partnership with Safaricom , Telekom you name it.

My centi nusu

Unedited

Nok,
Thanks for your objectivity , you can see things for what they are and acknowledge the fact as it stands Jubilee is winning the upcomming elections. I hope you could also shed some light to Rais.



www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleI....aringo-backyard

The Jubilee coalition has exuded confidence that it will win the General Election in the first round.

Addressing rallies in Baringo County yesterday, the alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, said they have the numbers and dismissed opinion polls showing Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his CORD partners as favourites to win the polls.

“Elections are won by numbers and nothing else, so let us face the facts and those showing signs of panic should accept the hard reality,” said Uhuru.

Ruto added in Mogotio Constituency, “The writing is on the wall. The magicians of opinion polls should know that numbers don’t lie.”

He said the coalition had done its calculations and they would garner around eight million votes in the elections — the first under the 2010 promulgated Constitution.

Have numbers

“We have the numbers to form the next government this year. Our team is focused and we will win the March election,” said the coalition’s deputy president designate.

Ruto told Cord to prepare to be in the opposition, saying in Kiswahili; “Ukiona mwenzako ananyolewa nawe tia kichwa chako maji.”

Prime Minister Raila Odinga has dismissed Jubilee Alliance’s claims that they have the numbers to win the election, saying opinion polls showed otherwise.

Uhuru recalled conceding defeat in the 2002 election together with Ruto and said then they were not lucky but in March there are all indications that they will form the next government.

“In 2002, luck was not with us after people with selfish interests deserted us and declared another candidate, but we accepted that. It is now ten years and all indications are that we will be the next occupants of State House,” he said.

He said the Jubilee coalition was a pact of peace and unity to enable the country grow economically and stabilise.

The team divided themselves in two groups that flew in three helicopters in order to cover four political rallies in Mogotio, Muchongoi, Churo and Kabarnet Town in the expansive county.

In the campaign trail were Samuel Poghisio, Lee Kinyanjui, Moses Sekuda, Maison Leshomo, Moses Lessonet, Sammy Mwaita, William Cheptumo, Aden Duale, and Mohammed Mohammud. Ruto explained to voters in the region that he joined hands with Uhuru to show the whole world that Kikuyus and Kalenjins were not enemies.

“I decided to form a political pact with Uhuru because we want the world to know that Kenyans have faith in us and they don’t believe we participated in the 2008 post-election violence,” said Ruto.

Tana security

On insecurity in the Tana Delta and parts of Baringo County, Ruto challenged security forces to be more firm on perpetrators of violence, saying the newly appointed Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo and police officers should “pull up their socks and tighten their belts” to improve security.

“We cannot expand the economy if we can’t protect the lives and property of the people of Kenya,” he said.

Uhuru and Ruto challenged Kanu chairman Gideon Moi to join URP, saying it was the party of choice in the region and that if he wanted to be the first Senator of Baringo County he should re-think his political stand.

“We have a lot of respect for former president Moi but Kanu’s time in Baringo County is over. He was the defender of pastoralists. We want the people of Baringo to vote ‘six-piece-style’ in the coming general election,” he said.

Uhuru added that his government would respect retired leaders, as they are like a gem to society.

“We respect Moi and when President Kibaki retires, we will treat him well as well,” he said.

Duale also put on notice Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, telling her to defect to URP or lose her parliamentary seat. The Dujis MP said Jubilee would ensure equality, improve the economy and engage the youth and women in meaningful development through provision of cheap loans.


Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=7722&page=2#ixzz2HdFbY5i8

[OtishOtish]

And at the same time ... the UN estimates that for 2013 Kenya will need about $800 million on "donor aid" (for food, education, health, etc.) and has launched a "drive" to that end. But what the heck .. we've got coalitions and defections and defacations and all sort of *itions to worry about. Kazi iendelee.