Post by nok on Jan 12, 2013 11:07:46 GMT 3
STATE OF KENYA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, PROJECTED SURVEY OF THE POLL OUTCOME, JANUARY 10TH 2013.
BY SAM OCHOLA
NO, REGIONS, REGISTERED VOTERS, PROJECTED TURN-OUT, PROJECTED CAST VOTES, CORD % SHARE, CORD VOTE SHARE, JUBILEE % SHARE, JUBILEE VOTE SHARE, AMANI & OTHERS %, AMANI & OTHERS VOTE SHARE
1 COAST PROVINCE 1164083 57% 663527 60% 398116 38% 252140 2.00% 13271
2 NORTHERN FRONTIER 504482 50% 252241 60% 151345 38% 95852 2.00% 5045
3 MERU/EMBU 866329 70% 606430 30% 181929 68% 412373 2.00% 12129
4 UKAMBANI 1063529 65% 691294 85% 587600 13% 89868 2.00% 13826
5 CENTRAL PROVINCE 2190477 80% 1752382 8% 140191 90% 1577143 2.00% 35048
6 TURKANA/SAMBURU/POKOT 284901 60% 170941 60% 102564 38% 64957 2.00% 3419
7 NAROK/KAJIADO 568139 69% 392016 60% 235210 38% 148966 2.00% 7840
8 NAKURU/LAIKIPIA 866146 75% 649610 30% 194883 68% 441734 2.00% 12992
9 KALENJIN RIFT VALLEY 1556060 80% 1244848 33% 410800 65% 809151 2.00% 24897
10 BUNGOMA REGION 510588 65% 331882 80% 265506 8% 26551 12.00% 39826
11 KAKAMEGA COUNTY 568,813 65% 369728 75% 277296 5% 18486 20.00% 73946
12 BUSIA COUNTY 251737 65% 163629 85% 139085 3% 4909 12.00% 19635
13 VIHIGA COUNTY 202456 65% 131596 70% 92117 2% 2632 28.00% 36847
14 LUO NYANZA 1257849 80% 1006279 97% 976091 1% 10063 2.00% 20126
15 GUSII/KURIA NYANZA 696907 65% 452990 68% 308033 30% 135897 2.00% 9060
16 NAIROBI 1778903 70% 1245232 50% 622616 47% 585259 3.00% 37357 p
NATIONAL TALLY 14331399 71% 10124625 50% 5083381 46% 4675982 4% 365262
VICTORY MARGIN (% AND VOTE SPREAD BETWEEN CORD & JUBILEE) 4% 407,399
APPENDIX
1 NORTHERN FRONTIER: North Eastern province; plus Isiolo & Marsabit Counties (ie Somali/pastoralists)
2 KALENJIN RIFT VALLEY: Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo, Kericho & Bomet Counties; plus Mt Elgon, Endebess & Cherangany constituencies.
3 BUNGOMA REGION: Bungoma & Tranzoia Counties; excluding Mt Elgon, Endebess & Cherangany constituencies
4 TURKANA/SAMBURU/POKOT: Turkana, Samburu & West Pokot Counties.
5 GUSII/KURIA NYANZA: Kisii & Nyamira Counties; including Kuria East & Kuria West constituencies.
6 NAROK/KAJIADO: Narok & Kajiado Counties (ie Maasailand)
7 MERU/EMBU: Meru, Tharaka & Embu counties. (ie Mt Kenya East)
8 UKAMBANI: Machakos, Makueni & Kitui Counties (ie Lower Eastern).
9 NAKURU/LAIKIPIA: Nakuru & Laikipia Counties (ie Central Rift Valley)
10 Primary Data Source: IEBC BVR 18th Dec 2012
11 I have deduced Regional and national voter turn-out on account of past elections ( eg 71% in 2007 & 69% 2010 referendum), historical trends & current ethno-political dispensation.
The net has yielded 71% turn out for March 4th 2013. Not surprising, the turn-out in Nairobi alligns with the national tally; a concurrence with history.
12 Kikuyu, Luo & Kalenjin areas have history of the most proactive voter participation. Borrowing closely frm recent polls (2007 & 2010), I have apportioned 80% voter turn-out in the 3 regions.
for the purpose of my analysis. The voter enthusiasm that greeted ODM wave in Kalenjin 2007 will however not be replicated in 2013 by any side. Thus 80% Kalenjin turn out is an ambitious projection.
13 A much lower turn-out, 50-57% is apportioned to Coast, Northern frontier & Turkana/Pokot areas to account for probable insecurity challenges, MRC insurrection & associated hardships/ apathy.
In 2007, Raila posted 59%, Kibaki 33% and Kalonzo 6%. There is no reason to discount Cord's support at 60% in the region. The presence of Naomi Shaban, Mwakwere, Mungutana
and Balala's in TNA does not translate to a sweep of the region. These politicians have their price tags and Uhuru's money simply purchased them. Land, devolution and resource grievance runs deep in places like Taita-Taveta
14 A stark reminder of the issues and Uhuru Kenyatta's candidancy becomes a hard-sell. I don't need further explanations. I've allocated Jubilee 38% vote share in Coast, reasonable figure.
For similar land issues, Uhuru will meet stiff resistance from Narok & Kajiado Counties when push comes to shove (don't forget Ole NtimamaS are still in town). There is however significant Jubilee support
in the two counties notably the Kikuyu Diaspora settled here. I have thus apportioned 60-38% vote share in CORD's favour within Maasailand
15 Track record in Ukambani, Luhyia & Kisii indicate equivocal & lustre voter participation hence the conservative turn-out projection of 65% in these regions. This is below the national average of 70%.
My take is there is no Nyachae; Kalonzo is not on the top ballot & the "mademoni" made Mudavadi's prospects so slim as warrant the effort.
A note of caution: protest vote (don't ask me against who) could inspire solid turn-out in both Ukambani & western to 70% +. The scenario would be a game changer in favour of CORD but remains to be seen.
16 Unless the Kalenjin RV (as in my table) vote " Uhuru for President" with the same propensity of "Arap Mibei" in 2007, Mr. Kenyatta cannot NOT attain 50+1. regardless of all efforts elsewhere (even if gets 100% from central).
I stand sober with 65% vote share for Uhuru from this region. URP will definitely sweep other elective positions but Presidential return for Uhuru amongst the Kalenjin could only peak to 70%. That's the feeling on the ground.
Although Gusii/Kuria have traditionally steered off the Nyanza voting pattern, the trend on the ground inclines towards inevitable solidarity with
Luo counterparts for CORD presidential ticket. Anyone keen to observe the recent Uhuruto visit will attest to this. The most UK can achieve in Gusii counties is 30% vote share.
17 Raila needs a third of Kalenjin votes and some 25% of Meru/Embu vote basket to be encourse for 50+1 in first round. Both are modest margins within his reach. (I have accordingly reversed the
postings of 2007 and allocated Raila 33% & 65% for UK in Rift Valley. This is a safe projection)
Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=recent#ixzz2HkLii1YT
BY SAM OCHOLA
NO, REGIONS, REGISTERED VOTERS, PROJECTED TURN-OUT, PROJECTED CAST VOTES, CORD % SHARE, CORD VOTE SHARE, JUBILEE % SHARE, JUBILEE VOTE SHARE, AMANI & OTHERS %, AMANI & OTHERS VOTE SHARE
1 COAST PROVINCE 1164083 57% 663527 60% 398116 38% 252140 2.00% 13271
2 NORTHERN FRONTIER 504482 50% 252241 60% 151345 38% 95852 2.00% 5045
3 MERU/EMBU 866329 70% 606430 30% 181929 68% 412373 2.00% 12129
4 UKAMBANI 1063529 65% 691294 85% 587600 13% 89868 2.00% 13826
5 CENTRAL PROVINCE 2190477 80% 1752382 8% 140191 90% 1577143 2.00% 35048
6 TURKANA/SAMBURU/POKOT 284901 60% 170941 60% 102564 38% 64957 2.00% 3419
7 NAROK/KAJIADO 568139 69% 392016 60% 235210 38% 148966 2.00% 7840
8 NAKURU/LAIKIPIA 866146 75% 649610 30% 194883 68% 441734 2.00% 12992
9 KALENJIN RIFT VALLEY 1556060 80% 1244848 33% 410800 65% 809151 2.00% 24897
10 BUNGOMA REGION 510588 65% 331882 80% 265506 8% 26551 12.00% 39826
11 KAKAMEGA COUNTY 568,813 65% 369728 75% 277296 5% 18486 20.00% 73946
12 BUSIA COUNTY 251737 65% 163629 85% 139085 3% 4909 12.00% 19635
13 VIHIGA COUNTY 202456 65% 131596 70% 92117 2% 2632 28.00% 36847
14 LUO NYANZA 1257849 80% 1006279 97% 976091 1% 10063 2.00% 20126
15 GUSII/KURIA NYANZA 696907 65% 452990 68% 308033 30% 135897 2.00% 9060
16 NAIROBI 1778903 70% 1245232 50% 622616 47% 585259 3.00% 37357 p
NATIONAL TALLY 14331399 71% 10124625 50% 5083381 46% 4675982 4% 365262
VICTORY MARGIN (% AND VOTE SPREAD BETWEEN CORD & JUBILEE) 4% 407,399
APPENDIX
1 NORTHERN FRONTIER: North Eastern province; plus Isiolo & Marsabit Counties (ie Somali/pastoralists)
2 KALENJIN RIFT VALLEY: Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo, Kericho & Bomet Counties; plus Mt Elgon, Endebess & Cherangany constituencies.
3 BUNGOMA REGION: Bungoma & Tranzoia Counties; excluding Mt Elgon, Endebess & Cherangany constituencies
4 TURKANA/SAMBURU/POKOT: Turkana, Samburu & West Pokot Counties.
5 GUSII/KURIA NYANZA: Kisii & Nyamira Counties; including Kuria East & Kuria West constituencies.
6 NAROK/KAJIADO: Narok & Kajiado Counties (ie Maasailand)
7 MERU/EMBU: Meru, Tharaka & Embu counties. (ie Mt Kenya East)
8 UKAMBANI: Machakos, Makueni & Kitui Counties (ie Lower Eastern).
9 NAKURU/LAIKIPIA: Nakuru & Laikipia Counties (ie Central Rift Valley)
10 Primary Data Source: IEBC BVR 18th Dec 2012
11 I have deduced Regional and national voter turn-out on account of past elections ( eg 71% in 2007 & 69% 2010 referendum), historical trends & current ethno-political dispensation.
The net has yielded 71% turn out for March 4th 2013. Not surprising, the turn-out in Nairobi alligns with the national tally; a concurrence with history.
12 Kikuyu, Luo & Kalenjin areas have history of the most proactive voter participation. Borrowing closely frm recent polls (2007 & 2010), I have apportioned 80% voter turn-out in the 3 regions.
for the purpose of my analysis. The voter enthusiasm that greeted ODM wave in Kalenjin 2007 will however not be replicated in 2013 by any side. Thus 80% Kalenjin turn out is an ambitious projection.
13 A much lower turn-out, 50-57% is apportioned to Coast, Northern frontier & Turkana/Pokot areas to account for probable insecurity challenges, MRC insurrection & associated hardships/ apathy.
In 2007, Raila posted 59%, Kibaki 33% and Kalonzo 6%. There is no reason to discount Cord's support at 60% in the region. The presence of Naomi Shaban, Mwakwere, Mungutana
and Balala's in TNA does not translate to a sweep of the region. These politicians have their price tags and Uhuru's money simply purchased them. Land, devolution and resource grievance runs deep in places like Taita-Taveta
14 A stark reminder of the issues and Uhuru Kenyatta's candidancy becomes a hard-sell. I don't need further explanations. I've allocated Jubilee 38% vote share in Coast, reasonable figure.
For similar land issues, Uhuru will meet stiff resistance from Narok & Kajiado Counties when push comes to shove (don't forget Ole NtimamaS are still in town). There is however significant Jubilee support
in the two counties notably the Kikuyu Diaspora settled here. I have thus apportioned 60-38% vote share in CORD's favour within Maasailand
15 Track record in Ukambani, Luhyia & Kisii indicate equivocal & lustre voter participation hence the conservative turn-out projection of 65% in these regions. This is below the national average of 70%.
My take is there is no Nyachae; Kalonzo is not on the top ballot & the "mademoni" made Mudavadi's prospects so slim as warrant the effort.
A note of caution: protest vote (don't ask me against who) could inspire solid turn-out in both Ukambani & western to 70% +. The scenario would be a game changer in favour of CORD but remains to be seen.
16 Unless the Kalenjin RV (as in my table) vote " Uhuru for President" with the same propensity of "Arap Mibei" in 2007, Mr. Kenyatta cannot NOT attain 50+1. regardless of all efforts elsewhere (even if gets 100% from central).
I stand sober with 65% vote share for Uhuru from this region. URP will definitely sweep other elective positions but Presidential return for Uhuru amongst the Kalenjin could only peak to 70%. That's the feeling on the ground.
Although Gusii/Kuria have traditionally steered off the Nyanza voting pattern, the trend on the ground inclines towards inevitable solidarity with
Luo counterparts for CORD presidential ticket. Anyone keen to observe the recent Uhuruto visit will attest to this. The most UK can achieve in Gusii counties is 30% vote share.
17 Raila needs a third of Kalenjin votes and some 25% of Meru/Embu vote basket to be encourse for 50+1 in first round. Both are modest margins within his reach. (I have accordingly reversed the
postings of 2007 and allocated Raila 33% & 65% for UK in Rift Valley. This is a safe projection)
Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=recent#ixzz2HkLii1YT