Post by nowayhaha on Mar 16, 2013 11:18:41 GMT 3
www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Pollster-Why-we-got-election-results-wrong/-/1064/1721392/-/123rw3az/-/index.html
An opinion poll company on Friday tried to explain why the outcome of the presidential election was contrary to their predictions.
Ipsos Synovate, in its post-election analysis, said high voter turnout, last minute swings in voting intentions as well as a decline in the support of the other six ‘minor’ candidates could have caused the difference.
The firm’s lead researcher, Mr Tom Wolf, said high voter turnout especially in Jubilee strongholds, gave President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta a clear advantage over his main rival – Cord’s Raila Odinga.
The other presidential candidates in the election were Musalia Mudavadi (Amani), Peter Kenneth (Eagle), Mohammed Dida (Alliance for Real Change), Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Paul Muite (Safina) and James ole Kiyiapi (Restore and Build Kenya).
Mr Wolf explained that in the 20 counties where Mr Kenyatta won most votes, the average voter turnout was 88 per cent, while in the same number of counties where Mr Odinga won, the turnout was 84 per cent.
Mr Kenyatta was declared the winner by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission after garnering 6,173,433 votes cast against Mr Odinga’s 5,340,546 in the poll whose voter turnout hit a record 86 per cent.
This, the IEBC said, represented 50.07 per cent of the votes cast, which was more than the 50 plus one threshold set by the Constitution.
The figures, however, differed with the Synovate’s predictions.
In February, the pollster indicated that Mr Kenyatta would get 44.8 per cent of the vote over Mr Odinga’s 44.4 per cent in a statistical dead heat.
While giving their analysis of the changes in numbers, Mr Wolf, said: “Aside from any irregularities, last minute swings in voting intentions, including the disappearance of the undecided lot comprised about five per cent in January and three per cent in February.
“The other is the decline of support for any of all the six ‘minor’ candidates, all of whom the polls showed as having no realistic chance of winning and voter turnout that could vary.”
Mr Wolf said a comparison between their poll and the IEBC results showed that apart from Mr Kenyatta, their results were within the poll’s margin of error of +/-1.26.
The pollster had predicted that the President-elect would get 44.8 per cent but ended up with 50.07 per cent, a difference of 5.25 per cent, higher than their margin of error.
It could be that, Mr Wolf said, supporters for the six presidential candidates decided to vote for either Mr Kenyatta or Mr Odinga.
An opinion poll company on Friday tried to explain why the outcome of the presidential election was contrary to their predictions.
Ipsos Synovate, in its post-election analysis, said high voter turnout, last minute swings in voting intentions as well as a decline in the support of the other six ‘minor’ candidates could have caused the difference.
The firm’s lead researcher, Mr Tom Wolf, said high voter turnout especially in Jubilee strongholds, gave President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta a clear advantage over his main rival – Cord’s Raila Odinga.
The other presidential candidates in the election were Musalia Mudavadi (Amani), Peter Kenneth (Eagle), Mohammed Dida (Alliance for Real Change), Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Paul Muite (Safina) and James ole Kiyiapi (Restore and Build Kenya).
Mr Wolf explained that in the 20 counties where Mr Kenyatta won most votes, the average voter turnout was 88 per cent, while in the same number of counties where Mr Odinga won, the turnout was 84 per cent.
Mr Kenyatta was declared the winner by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission after garnering 6,173,433 votes cast against Mr Odinga’s 5,340,546 in the poll whose voter turnout hit a record 86 per cent.
This, the IEBC said, represented 50.07 per cent of the votes cast, which was more than the 50 plus one threshold set by the Constitution.
The figures, however, differed with the Synovate’s predictions.
In February, the pollster indicated that Mr Kenyatta would get 44.8 per cent of the vote over Mr Odinga’s 44.4 per cent in a statistical dead heat.
While giving their analysis of the changes in numbers, Mr Wolf, said: “Aside from any irregularities, last minute swings in voting intentions, including the disappearance of the undecided lot comprised about five per cent in January and three per cent in February.
“The other is the decline of support for any of all the six ‘minor’ candidates, all of whom the polls showed as having no realistic chance of winning and voter turnout that could vary.”
Mr Wolf said a comparison between their poll and the IEBC results showed that apart from Mr Kenyatta, their results were within the poll’s margin of error of +/-1.26.
The pollster had predicted that the President-elect would get 44.8 per cent but ended up with 50.07 per cent, a difference of 5.25 per cent, higher than their margin of error.
It could be that, Mr Wolf said, supporters for the six presidential candidates decided to vote for either Mr Kenyatta or Mr Odinga.