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Post by jakaswanga on Jul 28, 2013 11:08:09 GMT 3
RE: AFRIKA MUST COPY NAZI-GERMANY METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC REGENERATION, OR WILL STAY IN THIS COMA FOREVER!First: the full frontal blast: ADULTS ONLY! www.henryckliu.com/page151.htmlThere is much talk of industrialisation nowadays across the continent. So I thought let us get adult and serious. So I say ADULTS ONLY TODAY. Momiyo koro, yawa, do not tease with me today. I am in a mean mood. I have travelled enough through Afrika, and with my own eyes seen the squalor of her peoples, even as the stupendous wealth of her natural vaults are carted away by raiders from afar, looted with the aid of local hirelings. I have travelled afar, to decent Scandinavia often enough, and visited the other places in Asia too, where, in the recent past, whole populations have gone places up the ladder of economic progress and stayed; and, forced to compare with my home continent of Afrika, ------Afrika with her hordes of jigger-infested, malaria-ridden and emaciated infants; Afrika with her children of a lesser God born in bondage to eternal victims of an inferior elite,------ I have had no option but to search with unprejudiced mind, if not somewhere else on God's wretched earth, others have worked miracles more formidable than Jesus feeding multitudes on six loaves and six fish. I found out, O saints O saints! that economic miracles do happen, and, most importantly, have happened turbo. I found out, that during the tenure of Hjalmar Schacht as minister of economic planning, in a mere four years, NATIONAL SOCIALIST Germany did what they had to do, to make Germany work. Salvage her from the crippling settlement conditions of the earlier war, aka the treaty of Versailles. An ingenious scheme and effort and will-power. The triumph of a people outta a hell-hole. And this example is the oasis I have stopped at, thirsty for a way out for beloved Afrika. HOW LONG THE WAILER, AFRIKA
O deserts of thought I wander! Hear me Adam Smith! O mines of thought I descended! All scraped Bottoms! O divine schools of thought I meandered, thorough in vain! Of Herr Schacht and Hitler's public works they barked you can't touch that! But today I stand up and bow in tribute to the chief economist of the National Socialists!
I am tired of Mama Africa being everybodys spitting bowl for a pitiance.----CONTINUED--->>
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Post by jakaswanga on Jul 28, 2013 11:29:16 GMT 3
No need discovering the wheel twice. Afrika must learn from the 'meister' of wirtschaftswunders!Africa must change, whatever it takes! Africa must enjoy her wealth visibly in her peoples life-style, and not just a select few at the top. Her total peoples must know wealth, and health, and other material comforts that acrue from the exploitation of her bounteous natural resources, stuff now mortgaged for a pitiance to foreign interests under the extractive tutilage of the IMF and the World Bank ---institutes whose ideological control of African economic planning I consider the equivalent of the terms of reparation imposed on Germany by the treaty of Versailles! ---Damn you Amigo Mank, I took you seriously and I have graduated into an economist ! Thinking rationaly without morality. So I am not bothered by the rumours or qualms that Nazi Germany is the ultimate evil of all Human history because of the Shoa. Pure economics for me now, morality is a mental cobweb! NYAKA KARANG'O ABED MASKIN TO MWANDU TE GIN E LOPA!(for how long be I the wretched of the earth, whilst all her wealth is under my land?) I am tired of begging for food, sitting on a golden stool, impervious to value... I am tired of sitting in the sun, selling diamonds by the roadside at a throw away!O fates! I dare you in Afrika to let rise a leader the ferocity of Adolf Hitler in the build! I am tired of calling minions their excellencies! Minions like see the AU roster of heads of states! <><><><><><><><><>
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 4, 2013 10:42:20 GMT 3
Brother Mank,I will do German financial history here, we do Kenyan debt and Detroit bankruptcies at yours! So, Iwinjo, Amigo,No, the textbooks talk of Erhad Ludwig, the Post War minister of economic affairs as the 'owner' of the wirtschaftswunder, the German economic miracle. But, I found out for myself, far from standard textbooks, that before Erhard Ludwig and his fame, there had been another one. He had a precedent. Unacknowledged.It would appear then, that economic regeneration miracles are so common place in Germany, you had them every other decade. And they took less than half a decade to effect. So looking around the economic ruins of Africa, I asked myself, were these Germans for real, or are they 'fictional characters' from a feel good movie made in Planet Utopia!? And then the Shock. Schacht was real. And he lived long enough to tell his tale, in his own words. Un-apologetic. That realisation, that an economist can actually work a miracle in real time, just blew my mind away. Two times in one generation, then it is no big deal then, I concluded. I had thought the new Deal of Roosevelt had been King. Now that is only when I go by amateur standards ---yet that amateur is a standard still higher than post-colonial Africa economic practice! How sad!] It was the current un-ending eurozone crisis in concert with the banking crisis in the USA ---Obama and his financial lieutenant Bernanke ever appearing clueless year in year out, that made me screw up enough nerves to jump ship. What does Schacht have to say about Bankers in his understanding of money? May be the economic regeneration of the West in this epoch, needs something they are not teaching at Harvard and the other towers? And if they can not fix their own house, these gods, absolutely then will they never fix Afrika. And Afrika is on fire, and damn broke. I thought to myself. Long ago I picked up my mind and went to hunt. And stray-wandered into Germany, as it appeared evident that Germany remained the backbone of the €urozone. A historian took me to a place they call Auschwitz and asked: do you think this was the main thing, or just the excess of my ancestors? 'Can't be bothered,' I answered. I come from East Congo. We do not bother to build monuments to our 6 million dead there. We do not even use an extraordinary name for the deaths. After the industrialisation, there will be enough money to build fancy monuments and have tourists gape in amazement as they take stock of what happened in the Kivus as the civilised world watched porn on internet!' So, brother Mank if you are stil with me, what I found out in Germany was that, laid waste by the treaties enacted after the loss of world war I, the elite under Weimer as clueless as the current African political elite, the Germans broke rank and built it under Hitler's Schacht, lost it back to pre-history under allied bombardment, only to rebuild it under Ludwig Erhad and his ilk. And all that within a quarter century! Probably the only economic miracles in human history! But the wirtshaftswunder under Hitler and Schacht is the more impressive, given the challenges it was accomplished under. ---I was later to be informed Apartheid South Afrika used Schacht in their sanctions-beating industrialisation. The white tribe of Afrika had no time for Robert MacNamara and his Bretton Woods pacts! So Imagine a Schacht student at the head of Zaire's economic planning for 5 years instead of Mobutu's Nguza Bond the whatevereth! Coming from the Hell called Afrika, that was a story I would definitely take a closer look at, more than he Holy Scriptures that guarantee me everlasting life in Paradise after death, aka SAP and the other what have yous from the IMF and World Bank. So today, cold and unflinching in the light of withering criticism by Otishotish quoting the Nurnberg trials, I believe I have cracked what Uhuru Kenyatta must do to industrialise Kenya before he is jailed at the Hague. 3 years will be enough for him to become the greatest Kenyan ever. The 'Atakenya' --redeemer of Kenya, not Kenyatta nor Muthamaki which are mere euphemisms for a pick-pocket of the rank kleptocrat. Atakenya? hold it right there! can you teach Old Dogs New Trix? So, equally coldly, we wait for the implementor --The true redeemer! The Righteous One! We already have the solution, only the practitioneer is lacking. Only the office of 'head' of state is still a vacuum. Well, if we talk pan-africanism then, currently [2013] Afrika will be like China in the era of the war-lords, before the Communist Party unified her to territorial integrity, and further nationalist purpose. At this PAN-AFRIC level of problem solutions, one who is serious, can not refer to these these things even as pretenders, ---things like Kabila, dos Santos, Bozize, Al-Sisi, our Uhuruto nor M7; they are not even seat-warmers! They are semi-feudal war-lords, beasts of Barbaria, and the various so called independent Arican countries are the equivalent of what Bantustan homelands were in apartheid South Africa before Mandela's unification presidency! I mean, we all know they are puppets of forces they do not even know. First, is to take our own destiny in our own hands. I remain to be convinced Afrika's destiny is in the hands of those things we call their excellencies. ----Later, when we go back to joking threads, I will call these things presidents and excellent leaders, as pantomime protocol dictates! I will be back!
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 4, 2013 19:10:14 GMT 3
I recently read a very interesting book that has some relevance here: How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World's Most Dynamic Region, by J. Stidwell. www.amazon.com/How-Asia-Works-Success-Failure/dp/080211959X/ref=cm_rdp_productOne of the Amazon reviews gives a good summary: Author Studwell argues that there are three critical interventions that governments can use to speed up economic development. Used in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China, they have produced the quickest progressions from poverty to wealth that the world has seen.
The first and most overlooked is to maximize output from agriculture. The second is to direct investment and entrepreneurs towards manufacturing exports. Machines can easily be purchased on the world market, and successful east-Asian governments promoted technological upgrading through subsidies conditioned on export performance. (Exporters were almost invariably better businesses than firms that sold only at home.) The third is to focus capital on the fastest possible technology learning and the promise of high long-term profits, not short-term returns and individual consumption. This tends to pit the state against many businessmen and consumers with shorter-term horizons.
Thus, economic development is as simple as one, two, three. Unfortunately, wealthy nations and their economic institutions (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund) have provided contradictory advice to poor states, despite the fact that no significant economy has ever developed successfully via free-trade and deregulation from the beginning - including the U.S. and Great Britain. Positive intervention has been required in agriculture and manufacturing that fostered early accumulation of capital and technological learning.If he is right, and he makes a convincing argument for his case, then things don't look that great for Africa: * What should be done in agriculture is not being done. This is one place where all the "surplus labour" could be put to good use. (I note that even in Kenya, the "economic powerhouse of Eastern Africa", unemployment is something like 40% and mostly of young energetic people.) * Cheap junk from China et al continue to erode manufacturing capacity. Currently Africa (all of Africa) contributes something like 1.2% or so of global manufacturing output. * As a consequence, the sort of "technological learning" that Stidwell refers to is not taking place. Schact's achievements were certainly very impressive, especially with regard to employment, but could they work in today's world? I think only partially at best. To my mind, a better study today would be South Korea.
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 4, 2013 21:24:59 GMT 3
Schact's achievements were certainly very impressive, especially with regard to employment, but could they work in today's world? I think only partially at best. To my mind, a better study today would be South Korea. Of course I find that, above, minimalistically complimentuous! I think you have not stood to ponder the economic implications of the following imports: 1. ----its [German] economy was in total collapse, with ruinous war-reparation obligations and [2] zero prospects for foreign investment or credit. Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8607/africa-copy-germany-economics-stay#ixzz2b1Pz9hKL3. By 'trashing' the treaty of Versailles, the would be reaction in the form of what we nowadays call 'sanctions', therefore NO EXPORT MARKET. [The deal-making skills of foreign-affairs man von Robbentrop would of course later be comparable only to red-boy Chou en Lai, whose sleek tongue would be as notorious as the teachings of Goebbels which we use nowadays to sell anything from smart-phones to political parties.] The point is: South Korea had guaranteed favourable trading terms with the biggest consumer market: the USA; had technological transfer programs with Japan [no worry about breaking patents], and, as an offshoot of the Marshall plan, Soouth Korea was swimming in credit largesse. It is also because of the easy access to credit under the Marshall plan that I consider Ludwig Erhad having had an easier time of it. Schacht was running an autarky so to speak. No, Otishotish, Schacht was alone with his head. Every aspect he had to think out. [So to speak because Von Ribbentrop scared some bankers with Hitler is the last bastion against Soviet Stalinist communism! Pay or go red!] NB: When you see all your governors running around the globe looking for foreign investment as if that is divine intervention, you must have an idea of the mental depth of Schacht, even in terms of daring.I like this bit: speculation adds no value to Germany. Bankers and agents making a killin out of it must be deployed to more fruitful endeavors.NB2:Example/Parallel: Before news broke that Eddy Njoroge's KenGen was to expand the Olkaria geothermal power excavation plant, the plot of land from where those destitute Masais were evicted by their own hotelier Ole Lenku earlier this week, was worthless. So the wretched of the earth could peacefully 'squat on it.Then came the insider information, and wheelers and dealers and speculators reckoned that plot will soon be worth 1/2-amillion % more, and more. What did they do? Without planting even a single tree on the hectares, they formed a company and got Mutunga to give them EVICTION court orders. Then they hired thugs and used the police force as protectors to the perpetrators of ethnic cleansing. --Financing it all by an illegal confiscation of teacher's salaries! Being smart we call that in Kenya today. You know what Schacht would advise Hitler to do to this in Kenya highly enterpreneural gentlemen? He would call them saboteur-speculators and look the other way as Hitler threw them all into incenerators Literally. Some men take their nations seriously. That we do not in Kenya is our luck then! Patriotism is a dangerous business! Otishotish, this is Germany rising we are discussing here! not South Korea which had surrendered her independence to the USA as part of the protection from Northern agression. Rising as in soon to dare challenge both the USSR and the USA simultaneously for world hegemony.foolhardy it would turn to be --the simultaneous war. But the economic practice that led to that parity --productive parity, is in my opinion unprecedented in modern economic practice. Three years only, from a disjointed mechanical ruins to a rocket revving monster engine. I was thinking Zimbabue under Mugabe recoreded the guiness book of records inflation rate! nay, Robert gets silver! Gold goes to Berlin!That is bad! but it strangely looks like the Afrika I come from!
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 4, 2013 21:39:00 GMT 3
I recently read a very interesting book that has some relevance here: How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World's Most Dynamic Region, by J. Stidwell. www.amazon.com/How-Asia-Works-Success-Failure/dp/080211959X/ref=cm_rdp_productOne of the Amazon reviews gives a good summary: Author Studwell argues that there are three critical interventions that governments can use to speed up economic development. Used in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China, they have produced the quickest progressions from poverty to wealth that the world has seen.
The first and most overlooked is to maximize output from agriculture. The second is to direct investment and entrepreneurs towards manufacturing exports. Machines can easily be purchased on the world market, and successful east-Asian governments promoted technological upgrading through subsidies conditioned on export performance. (Exporters were almost invariably better businesses than firms that sold only at home.) He forgets to mention India and Brazil. These basic things have only been overlooked in Afrika --where we surrendered our economic thinking to the World Bank and the IMF, who are nothing but lobbyists for big finance extractors. These are basic things. I remember our history teacher telling us that in the mid west, in Minnessota or something like that ---they just had to 'discover'/invent' the combine harvestor, air-plane anti-pestide fumigations! he told us one man could have a farm the size of Kenya! he could not run that on slaves! they would disappear into the bush or already pass the threshold of rebellion! You needed a tool that stayed where you parked it! Then you needed a government that forced others to buy your produce, for if one man owns a farm the size of kenya and runs it at full mechanised, he can not eat it all himself! The teacher was called Mogaka from the Highlands! then laughing at us --we were doubting, he would laugh and say: let us start with a plough with one-hundred horses!, plowing from Awasi to Ahero! The next generation will pick it from there! ---if they happen to accept combine-harvestors are not fairy tales! yes otishotish, Mogaka Jakisii already felt what Studwell is selling here! Fearsome IMPLEMENTORS! THAT IS THE MISSING LINK IN AFRIKA! Solutions for free! FUTURE OF AFRICA
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Post by mank on Aug 4, 2013 23:01:40 GMT 3
---Damn you Amigo Mank, I took you seriously and I have graduated into an economist ! Thinking rationaly without morality. So I am not bothered by the rumours or qualms that Nazi Germany is the ultimate evil of all Human history because of the Shoa. Pure economics for me now, morality is a mental cobweb! NYAKA KARANG'O ABED MASKIN TO MWANDU TE GIN E LOPA!(for how long be I the wretched of the earth, whilst all her wealth is under my land?) I am tired of begging for food, sitting on a golden stool, impervious to value... I am tired of sitting in the sun, selling diamonds by the roadside at a throw away!<><><><><><><><><> I hear an evolved thinker! And the world, along with he, is better now. The magic of embracing the Good science. But I had seen it in you man. No need discovering the wheel twice. Afrika must learn from the 'meister' of wirtschaftswunders!O fates! ..... ....Africa must change, whatever it takes! Africa must enjoy her wealth visibly in her peoples life-style, and not just a select few at the top. Her total peoples must know wealth, and health, and other material comforts that acrue from the exploitation of her bounteous natural resources, stuff now mortgaged for a pitiance to foreign interests under the extractive tutilage of the IMF and the World Bank ---institutes whose ideological control of African economic planning I consider the equivalent of the terms of reparation imposed on Germany by the treaty of Versailles! I dare you in Afrika to let rise a leader the ferocity of Adolf Hitler in the build! I am tired of calling minions their excellencies! Minions like see the AU roster of heads of states! Let's step back ... before you disown History, there is something it offers, methinks! There was a man by the name Patrice Lumumba. Did he have any of the qualities you seek for a leader in the black continent? Poor soul, he never had the chance to know if Afrika (or the part of it that he had jurisdiction over) was ready, or if he would have had to get ruthless! I hate to speculate, but I think someone thought he fit the bill. He was a threat to the ropes that tie the dark power into submission. He had to go. "Congo had to be liberated." Liberation is such a loaded term in international polytricks! Elsewhere you forgot how long it took Kenya to be independent, and then in the same breath you said that Kenya might actually gain independence some day ... I would have dismissed it as confusion, but I have special access to the wavelengths of that damn mind of yours! Damn you Amigo!
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Post by mank on Aug 4, 2013 23:32:59 GMT 3
Brother Mank,I will do German financial history here, we do Kenyan debt and Detroit bankruptcies at yours! So, Iwinjo, Amigo,No, the textbooks talk of Erhad Ludwig, the Post War minister of economic affairs as the 'owner' of the wirtschaftswunder, the German economic miracle. But, I found out for myself, far from standard textbooks, that before Erhard Ludwig and his fame, there had been another one. He had a precedent. Unacknowledged.It would appear then, that economic regeneration miracles are so common place in Germany, you had them every other decade. And they took less than half a decade to effect. So looking around the economic ruins of Africa, I asked myself, were these Germans for real, or are they 'fictional characters' from a feel good movie made in Planet Utopia!? And then the Shock. Schacht was real. And he lived long enough to tell his tale, in his own words. Un-apologetic. That realisation, that an economist can actually work a miracle in real time, just blew my mind away. Two times in one generation, then it is no big deal then, I concluded. I had thought the new Deal of Roosevelt had been King. Now that is only when I go by amateur standards ---yet that amateur is a standard still higher than post-colonial Africa economic practice! How sad!] It was the current un-ending eurozone crisis in concert with the banking crisis in the USA ---Obama and his financial lieutenant Bernanke ever appearing clueless year in year out, that made me screw up enough nerves to jump ship. What does Schacht have to say about Bankers in his understanding of money? May be the economic regeneration of the West in this epoch, needs something they are not teaching at Harvard and the other towers? And if they can not fix their own house, these gods, absolutely then will they never fix Afrika. And Afrika is on fire, and damn broke. I thought to myself. Long ago I picked up my mind and went to hunt. And stray-wandered into Germany, as it appeared evident that Germany remained the backbone of the €urozone. A historian took me to a place they call Auschwitz and asked: do you think this was the main thing, or just the excess of my ancestors? 'Can't be bothered,' I answered. I come from East Congo. We do not bother to build monuments to our 6 million dead there. We do not even use an extraordinary name for the deaths. After the industrialisation, there will be enough money to build fancy monuments and have tourists gape in amazement as they take stock of what happened in the Kivus as the civilised world watched porn on internet!' So, brother Mank if you are stil with me, what I found out in Germany was that, laid waste by the treaties enacted after the loss of world war I, the elite under Weimer as clueless as the current African political elite, the Germans broke rank and built it under Hitler's Schacht, lost it back to pre-history under allied bombardment, only to rebuild it under Ludwig Erhad and his ilk. And all that within a quarter century! Probably the only economic miracles in human history! But the wirtshaftswunder under Hitler and Schacht is the more impressive, given the challenges it was accomplished under. ---I was later to be informed Apartheid South Afrika used Schacht in their sanctions-beating industrialisation. The white tribe of Afrika had no time for Robert MacNamara and his Bretton Woods pacts! So Imagine a Schacht student at the head of Zaire's economic planning for 5 years instead of Mobutu's Nguza Bond the whatevereth! Coming from the Hell called Afrika, that was a story I would definitely take a closer look at, more than he Holy Scriptures that guarantee me everlasting life in Paradise after death, aka SAP and the other what have yous from the IMF and World Bank. So today, cold and unflinching in the light of withering criticism by Otishotish quoting the Nurnberg trials, I believe I have cracked what Uhuru Kenyatta must do to industrialise Kenya before he is jailed at the Hague. 3 years will be enough for him to become the greatest Kenyan ever. The 'Atakenya' --redeemer of Kenya, not Kenyatta nor Muthamaki which are mere euphemisms for a pick-pocket of the rank kleptocrat. Atakenya? hold it right there! can you teach Old Dogs New Trix? So, equally coldly, we wait for the implementor --The true redeemer! The Righteous One! We already have the solution, only the practitioneer is lacking. Only the office of 'head' of state is still a vacuum. Well, if we talk pan-africanism then, currently [2013] Afrika will be like China in the era of the war-lords, before the Communist Party unified her to territorial integrity, and further nationalist purpose. At this PAN-AFRIC level of problem solutions, one who is serious, can not refer to these these things even as pretenders, ---things like Kabila, dos Santos, Bozize, Al-Sisi, our Uhuruto nor M7; they are not even seat-warmers! They are semi-feudal war-lords, beasts of Barbaria, and the various so called independent Arican countries are the equivalent of what Bantustan homelands were in apartheid South Africa before Mandela's unification presidency! I mean, we all know they are puppets of forces they do not even know. First, is to take our own destiny in our own hands. I remain to be convinced Afrika's destiny is in the hands of those things we call their excellencies. ----Later, when we go back to joking threads, I will call these things presidents and excellent leaders, as pantomime protocol dictates! I will be back! Holly krap! Am I supposed to say anything to that? ... Tell me this isn't a scene from the movie "Braveheart". I am sold, and ready to tear down those "their excellencies!" Now I know what Kafira needs ... a motivational speaker! And I have its candidate.
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Post by mank on Aug 5, 2013 1:02:51 GMT 3
I recently read a very interesting book that has some relevance here: How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World's Most Dynamic Region, by J. Stidwell. www.amazon.com/How-Asia-Works-Success-Failure/dp/080211959X/ref=cm_rdp_productOne of the Amazon reviews gives a good summary: Author Studwell argues that there are three critical interventions that governments can use to speed up economic development. Used in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China, they have produced the quickest progressions from poverty to wealth that the world has seen.
The first and most overlooked is to maximize output from agriculture. The second is to direct investment and entrepreneurs towards manufacturing exports. ... Amigo Otish, That's knowledge well established by men like Theodore (Bill) Schultz (he of Poor Economics) and Arthur Lewis (1979 joint winners of the Nobel Prize) among others. The key point, reached by different thinkers at about the same time, is that Agriculture is really the engine of development - it reclaims minds from low equilibrium levels of thinking and operation (those men could never have been so rough in language - I paraphrase), and finances start-up manufacturing industry. As manufacturing takes route, it starts paying fatter wages than what agriculture is offering ... so agriculture becomes a supplier of labor to new industry ... and of course not every worker leaves agriculture, but those with the skill desired by the young industry.... so the busy bodies are no longer at ease ... they go for more human capital so they can tap into the wages available to those who are acceptable by manufacturing. By and by the young economy reaches what Lewis called pre-take off, and then comes the take-off stage ... no body can stop the bad boy from there ... perhaps an internal disturbance like happened in Zaire! ...Machines can easily be purchased on the world market, and successful east-Asian governments promoted technological upgrading through subsidies conditioned on export performance. (Exporters were almost invariably better businesses than firms that sold only at home.) The third is to focus capital on the fastest possible technology learning and the promise of high long-term profits, not short-term returns and individual consumption. This tends to pit the state against many businessmen and consumers with shorter-term horizons. That's what different between the times in which Afrika must develop, and the times addressed by the models of 1979. In those works, there was no outside economy with the manufacturing that agriculture needed. So there was a natural demand, locally for industrialization. Unfortunately the Afrikan farmer has a choice ... to go through the pains of starting a manufacturing plant, or sell his raw product to some mzungu who already has what it takes to convert the raw product to the next thing. Incidentally what they do with our raw materials somehow takes up much of the price at which the final product is sold. The Afrikan gets pittance for months and months of toiling, land use, seed and animal feaces (fertilizer). Thus, economic development is as simple as one, two, three. Unfortunately, wealthy nations and their economic institutions (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund) have provided contradictory advice to poor states, despite the fact that no significant economy has ever developed successfully via free-trade and deregulation from the beginning - including the U.S. and Great Britain. Positive intervention has been required in agriculture and manufacturing that fostered early accumulation of capital and technological learning. If he is right ( I bet you he's right), and he makes a convincing argument for his case, then things don't look that great for Africa: * What should be done in agriculture is not being done. This is one place where all the "surplus labour" could be put to good use. (I note that even in Kenya, the "economic powerhouse of Eastern Africa", unemployment is something like 40% and mostly of young energetic people.) * Cheap junk from China et al continue to erode manufacturing capacity. Currently Africa (all of Africa) contributes something like 1.2% or so of global manufacturing output. * As a consequence, the sort of "technological learning" that Stidwell refers to is not taking place. Schact's achievements were certainly very impressive, especially with regard to employment, but could they work in today's world? I think only partially at best. To my mind, a better study today would be South Korea. Every situation with its policy intervention (even for the same result). I will have to acquaint myself better with the works of this Schact, but what we should be thinking is, "if he could do something worth the attention, then someone can do something similar under today's circumstances." Good science demands that the circumstances be understood in each situation ... so for the admiration of German Schact of then, the question in today's Africa is "what would Schact do here, and in this situation?" Where is our Schact, incentivizing domestic manufacturing, rather than promoting the sale of our coffee and what-not in the virgin state it came from the land?
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Post by mank on Aug 5, 2013 1:23:24 GMT 3
FUTURE OF AFRICA Any other way to PROSPERITY? There is a small bottleneck on this road. ... and we refuse to shed off any of our baggage to fit.
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 5, 2013 2:48:51 GMT 3
I will have to acquaint myself better with the works of this Schact, but what we should be thinking is, "if he could do something worth the attention, then someone can do something similar under today's circumstances." Good science demands that the circumstances be understood in each situation ... so for the admiration of German Schact of then, the question in today's Africa is "what would Schact do here, and in this situation?" Where is our Schact, incentivizing domestic manufacturing, rather than promoting the sale of our coffee and what-not in the virgin state it came from the land? When Schacht too over, something like 6 million Germans were unemployed. When he left, about 3 years later, the number was less than 500,000 and by 1938, the number was less than 50,000, i.e. practically full employment. What's more, those figures don't tell the whole story, because the period also started a rapid rise in the number of "expatriate workers". A great deal of what he did had similarities with the "New Deal" in the USA---putting people to work on the public purse. What is interesting, though, is they got these people to do real work: if I recall correctly, German productivity in 1938 was the highest in Europe, and living standards shot up. But the driving vision was one of autarky, and it's hard to see how that would work in today's world. Schacht also engaged in numerous activities, such as default on all foreign debt, among others, that would these days be regarded as serious mischief. The manufacturing aspect is interesting in many ways: E.g. Hitler the car-lover, his dream of a "people's car" and the German car industry; Hitler's need for a vehicle to promote Nazi propaganda and the subsequent rise in the mass production of radios (which also helped with employment), etc. Going back to the question of what we can do here and now, I was intrigued to read that "As a country, therefore, Kenya has identified industrialization as the way forward towards the attainment of middle-income status as outlined in the Jubilee Manifesto and Vision 2030. I formed the Ministry of Industrialization and Enterprise Development to spearhead our industrial revolution and export diversification agenda". [HE President Kenyatta] www.statehousekenya.go.ke/speeches/uhuru/june2013/2013130601.htmThe said ministry's website, when it is not down (which seems to be most of the time), hardly gives the impression of an industrial revolution in the offing. It seems to be down again right now, probably due to intensive planning for the revolution, but from the Mars Group's website, its immediate plans: Expected Outputs
• Acquisition of land for industrial SME Park • Undertake feasibility studies and develop master plan and architectural designs for industrial SME parks
Medium Term Performance Indicators & Targets
• Land acquired for two industrial SME parks • 47 feasibility studies. master plans and architectural designs developedbudget.marsgroupkenya.org/national/programmes/116/#.Uf7glmrD_IUHardly the stuff of industrial revolutions .... Countries like Kenya need to take a serious look at countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. instead of just dreaming that an industrial revolution or whatever occurs simply because one says it will or should occur. In South Korea and Singapore, what I have seen is not just big plans and "visions" but also concrete steps for how to transform the plan/vision into reality---and they have worked. In contrast, as things stand right now, Kenya's Vision 2030 seems to be no more than a mild exercise in absurdity. That, by itself, is not necessarily bad---things that cause amusement are always welcome. The problem is that quite a few people seem to take it seriously.
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Post by mank on Aug 5, 2013 4:33:25 GMT 3
I will have to acquaint myself better with the works of this Schact, but what we should be thinking is, "if he could do something worth the attention, then someone can do something similar under today's circumstances." Good science demands that the circumstances be understood in each situation ... so for the admiration of German Schact of then, the question in today's Africa is "what would Schact do here, and in this situation?" Where is our Schact, incentivizing domestic manufacturing, rather than promoting the sale of our coffee and what-not in the virgin state it came from the land? When Schacht too over, something like 6 million Germans were unemployed. When he left, about 3 years later, the number was less than 500,000 and by 1938, the number was less than 50,000, i.e. practically full employment. What's more, those figures don't tell the whole story, because the period also started a rapid rise in the number of "expatriate workers". A great deal of what he did had similarities with the "New Deal" in the USA---putting people to work on the public purse. What is interesting, though, is they got these people to do real work: if I recall correctly, German productivity in 1938 was the highest in Europe, and living standards shot up. But the driving vision was one of autarky, and it's hard to see how that would work in today's world. Schacht also engaged in numerous activities, such as default on all foreign debt, among others, that would these days be regarded as serious mischief. The manufacturing aspect is interesting in many ways: E.g. Hitler the car-lover, his dream of a "people's car" and the German car industry; Hitler's need for a vehicle to promote Nazi propaganda and the subsequent rise in the mass production of radios (which also helped with employment), etc. Very well explained friend Otish. Hopefully if they land on Jukwaa and read these threads they will see the challenge to do better rather than read "sedition." The old mindset is not done with. Going back to the question of what we can do here and now, I was intrigued to read that "As a country, therefore, Kenya has identified industrialization as the way forward towards the attainment of middle-income status as outlined in the Jubilee Manifesto and Vision 2030. I formed the Ministry of Industrialization and Enterprise Development to spearhead our industrial revolution and export diversification agenda". [HE President Kenyatta] www.statehousekenya.go.ke/speeches/uhuru/june2013/2013130601.htmThe said ministry's website, when it is not down (which seems to be most of the time), hardly gives the impression of an industrial revolution in the offing. It seems to be down again right now, probably due to intensive planning for the revolution, but from the Mars Group's website, its immediate plans: Expected Outputs
• Acquisition of land for industrial SME Park • Undertake feasibility studies and develop master plan and architectural designs for industrial SME parks
Medium Term Performance Indicators & Targets
• Land acquired for two industrial SME parks • 47 feasibility studies. master plans and architectural designs developedbudget.marsgroupkenya.org/national/programmes/116/#.Uf7glmrD_IUHardly the stuff of industrial revolutions .... Countries like Kenya need to take a serious look at countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. instead of just dreaming that an industrial revolution or whatever occurs simply because one says it will or should occur. In South Korea and Singapore, what I have seen is not just big plans and "visions" but also concrete steps for how to transform the plan/vision into reality---and they have worked. In contrast, as things stand right now, Kenya's Vision 2030 seems to be no more than a mild exercise in absurdity. That, by itself, is not necessarily bad---things that cause amusement are always welcome. The problem is that quite a few people seem to take it seriously. No question, we got to find a way of going through that tunnel to PROSPERITY. We won't do it with laziness, corruption, conflicts, and dishonesty to our dreams. Its not enough to dream. How the Asian Tigers did it would be a good subject to explore. Theirs is often seen as the most prospective lesson for Kafira.
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 5, 2013 20:20:50 GMT 3
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Post by nok on Aug 6, 2013 15:42:17 GMT 3
No need discovering the wheel twice. Afrika must learn from the 'meister' of wirtschaftswunders!Africa must change, whatever it takes! Africa must enjoy her wealth visibly in her peoples life-style, and not just a select few at the top. Her total peoples must know wealth, and health, and other material comforts that acrue from the exploitation of her bounteous natural resources, stuff now mortgaged for a pitiance to foreign interests under the extractive tutilage of the IMF and the World Bank ---institutes whose ideological control of African economic planning I consider the equivalent of the terms of reparation imposed on Germany by the treaty of Versailles! ---Damn you Amigo Mank, I took you seriously and I have graduated into an economist ! Thinking rationaly without morality. So I am not bothered by the rumours or qualms that Nazi Germany is the ultimate evil of all Human history because of the Shoa. Pure economics for me now, morality is a mental cobweb! NYAKA KARANG'O ABED MASKIN TO MWANDU TE GIN E LOPA!(for how long be I the wretched of the earth, whilst all her wealth is under my land?) I am tired of begging for food, sitting on a golden stool, impervious to value... I am tired of sitting in the sun, selling diamonds by the roadside at a throw away!O fates! I dare you in Afrika to let rise a leader the ferocity of Adolf Hitler in the build! I am tired of calling minions their excellencies! Minions like see the AU roster of heads of states! <><><><><><><><><> In essence I concur too, that we should recalibrate our our macro-economics. We have to reintroduce " sozial - marktwirtschaft " => Reverse the SAP's of the 80's and early 90's SAP's were and are undemocratic, dominated by WB and IMF whose masters never had the soul of Africa and her transformation. There are hardly any macro-economic gains from the SAPs in contrary we have experienced socio-economic and political effects, with massive hardships and exponential widespread growth of social injustice. Countries were duped that private investment would drive economies once deregulation and monetary-fiscal measures were implemented. But public investment was totally banned, infact it became a taboo in most african countries. But in matters economic transformation, as already been well discussed above by Jakwaswanga and Mank, one has to look at the symbiosis of public and private participation in the trajectory of macro-economics; one is the engine and the other the body with wheels. And the post Weimer republic under Schacht and later under Erhard with the help of the likes of Beitz, Industrie Handelskammer et al, was precisely that. So what went wrong ?SAP's destroyed indegineuos manufacturing. The policies led to high interest rates hereby limiting credit access. Deregulation led to unfair competition with cheap imports over flooding our markets. Direct foreign investment was a non starter especially due to general instability in the continent paired with strategical blunders in boardroom wheely dealership and terrible images in matters confidence and reliability. SAPs relied mainly on fiscal and monetary instruments with little relevance to long term development goals. African economies were disabled. An example is the textile industries which use to flourish in western Kenya ( Rivatex , Raymond ). Removal of subsidies threatened both agriculture and domestic industries. Agriculture, especially food production, has also been adversely affected by interest rates and the high prices of inputs. There is consensus that low commodity prices have not brought the economic returns expected from the promotion of export agriculture. The policies here were negotiated with regimes that were not democratic or even legitimate. This fuelled corruption and further entrenched the Neo colonialism with zero protectionism let alone nationalism. All these at the expense of poor peasants, workers and the urban poor i.e the majority. The slavery that started more than 100 years and cemented by structural policies such as the above need to be revisited. Jakaswanga as you say, it is a question of implementation. So who has the balls to do it. Who is willing to take own the mighty Goldmann-SachsAs anyone in Jukwaa noticed that the top Dogs in the world of Economics are almost all interconnected to or were with G S and Harvard B. school ! from Draghi (EZB) to almost all US sec. of Finances ( Paulson, Rubin e.t.c ) to .............
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 7, 2013 21:40:54 GMT 3
No need discovering the wheel twice. Afrika must learn from the 'meister' of wirtschaftswunders!Africa must change, whatever it takes! Africa must enjoy her wealth visibly in her peoples life-style, and not just a select few at the top. Her total peoples must know wealth, and health, and other material comforts that acrue from the exploitation of her bounteous natural resources, stuff now mortgaged for a pitiance to foreign interests under the extractive tutilage of the IMF and the World Bank ---institutes whose ideological control of African economic planning I consider the equivalent of the terms of reparation imposed on Germany by the treaty of Versailles! ---Damn you Amigo Mank, I took you seriously and I have graduated into an economist ! Thinking rationaly without morality. So I am not bothered by the rumours or qualms that Nazi Germany is the ultimate evil of all Human history because of the Shoa. Pure economics for me now, morality is a mental cobweb! NYAKA KARANG'O ABED MASKIN TO MWANDU TE GIN E LOPA!(for how long be I the wretched of the earth, whilst all her wealth is under my land?) I am tired of begging for food, sitting on a golden stool, impervious to value... I am tired of sitting in the sun, selling diamonds by the roadside at a throw away!O fates! I dare you in Afrika to let rise a leader the ferocity of Adolf Hitler in the build! I am tired of calling minions their excellencies! Minions like see the AU roster of heads of states! <><><><><><><><><> In essence I concur too, that we should recalibrate our our macro-economics. We have to reintroduce " sozial - marktwirtschaft " => Reverse the SAP's of the 80's and early 90's SAP's were and are undemocratic, dominated by WB and IMF whose masters never had the soul of Africa and her transformation. There are hardly any macro-economic gains from the SAPs in contrary we have experienced socio-economic and political effects, with massive hardships and exponential widespread growth of social injustice. Nok, I was trying to look for the concise speech in which Dr. Mohammad Mahathir, former president of Malaysia, stated his case against the IMF policies. But I have not been able to locate it. The thick of it is that he agrees with you, but there is one thing which sticks in my mind. The IMF suggestion then to reduce spending on EDUCATION. Mahathir said: They want us to remain coolies, uneducated, ignorant and subservient in disease and poverty. No, we will go bankrupt investing in education for out people! They need modern skills to survive in the new modern world. We reduce spending on education, we kill our future, and we become a dead people. Mere ghosts! Nok, if you are in Nairobi, tour the primary schools in the Slums and tell me what you see! --As a teacher myself I of course long long ago took the tour in all urban areas. There are actually no schools to talk of. That theater of Micah Cheserem collapsing in tears when he witnessed a class room of stone-seats under an acacia tree with emaciated sleepy children is despicable. I guarantee you there are classrooms in Nairobi with sewage flowing through the room, and pupils barefoot. --You got to see it to believe it. dare deep into the slums, then wire out the logistics of laptops, then you will recognise there are many republics of kenya. Mahathir went on to invest like mad in education. And Otishotish who passed through Kuala Lumpur going to livelier if more decadent neighbouring Patpong should be in a position to tell us a thing or two about what happened next to Mahathir's nation!
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 7, 2013 22:54:28 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: Yes. During the Asian economic crisis, Matahir did tell the IMF to fwack off. (Like Lee Kwan Yew, he tended to believe that political independence meant little if you remained a beggar or otherwise at the economic mercy of others.) As to what happened next, here it is, direct from the head of the IMF: www.nst.com.my/top-news/imf-praises-malaysia-s-high-income-plan-1.171510
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 8, 2013 22:42:52 GMT 3
Who is willing to take own the mighty Goldmann-SachsAs anyone in Jukwaa noticed that the top Dogs in the world of Economics are almost all interconnected to or were with G S and Harvard B. school ! from Draghi (EZB) to almost all US sec. of Finances ( Paulson, Rubin e.t.c ) to ............. Nok, There is a documentary made by radical greeks after the financial meltdown of their country, in which they piece together the role of the GS axis! It is quite a story of skullduggery! While the bank was furnising and negotiating market loans for the greek government, it was secretly betting on their collapse, and insuring themselves in some complex ways which meant when greece collapsed, GS would really make a killing! And if she did not, they would make a killing on the loans they negotiated and guided on greece's behalf? There is a theory in Greece which says the country was led by its nose by cheater GS bankers into the slaughter house of defaults, because that is where the bank stood to loose the most money. Was Draghi of ECB complicit in the plot? a dangerous question in Greece, which has sent several journalists into hiding! [Like the Greek journalist who published the list of Greek powerful people who never paid a tax in their lives, and hoarded the gains off-shore, while ramming austerity down peoples throats! Speculator Bankers! Schacht had one place for them. Nazi ovens!
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 15, 2013 19:57:24 GMT 3
No question, we got to find a way of going through that tunnel to PROSPERITY. We won't do it with laziness, corruption, conflicts, and dishonesty to our dreams. Its not enough to dream. How the Asian Tigers did it would be a good subject to explore. Theirs is often seen as the most prospective lesson for Kafira. here is some food for thought Mank! tell us how many 'courses' you rank it. NB: By the way, do you know what it is, which fin-sec Henry Rotich uses to back the strength of the Kenya shilling!?
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 16, 2013 0:13:20 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: That mention of gold brought up some random thoughts: * What exactly is money? (Maybe our D-Scientist, Friend Mank G-Scientist could help us there.) Even excluding the Congo, Zimbabwe cases of piles of worthless bank notes ... there was a time when just a banknote just about anywhere in the world had the words "the Central Bank of Timbuktu (or wherever) promises to pay the bearer, on presentation of this note, the sum of [whatever] the note said". I always wondered what would happen if I took my banknote to the bank and demanded to be paid my sum of whatever. * Does money really exist? And for whom? I was reflecting on the fact that, like most people who live in a modern economy, I rarely see or handle money (in the sense of banknotes and coins). Once in a while, I get a note from my employer that I have been paid. I then get on my computer or pull out my cheque-book to pay for regular bills etc. For the rest, there is some bit of plastic: even to board a bus or a train, some of whatever the bank claims I have is simply transferred to my "transit card". One of these days, I might just hack into the bank's system and give myself a whole lot of money ... has to be better than wearing a mask and waving guns in people's faces. * Did gold really disappear from the monetary system? Today the IMF is still something like the world's third largest official holder of gold reserves---that is, the real solid stuff, not paper money: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htmWhen it became clear that most of the world would not tie currencies to gold stocks, the IMF did not get rid of its gold. It simply created "paper gold", which it named Special Drawing Rights, fortunate considering what happened a few years later: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htmwhich is its own currency but which it claims is "a potential claim to a currency" and not a currency. (Putting one "meta" for the potential and one "meta" for the claim, I suppose we may call it a meta-meta currency.) There is a story that in the old days, as transactions took place, the IMF had a little man whose special job was to physically move gold bars from the vault associated with that one country into the vault associated with another country. Probably apocryphal, but I like the story ... Anyway, a more useful point about the SDRs: money borrowed from the IMF is paid back in terms of the IMF's "SDR interest rates", at the end of the day is based on who has the real say on the value of an SDR. At any rate, there are at least two points to observe here: One, when the IMF considers how much "money" it has, it also takes into account its gold reserves and the prevailing price of gold, both of which will have an effect on any country looking for IMF largesse. Two, the current calculation of the value of an SDR shows which currencies really matter: euro, yen, sterling and US dollar. (Even those most excited "turning east" will not be caught with too many yuan or roubles.) And of course, even among equals some are more equal than others: at the IMF "voting rights" do matter. Any serious change at the IMF requires 85% of the "votes", but, lo and behold, a certain country has about 17% of the "votes". Here is an interesting table: www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspxThe new system after significant reforms (note that all countries, except the most equal one, are grouped into randomly named blocs): www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10418.htmThe voting rights are, quite sensibly, calculated on the basis of "a weighted average of GDP (weight of 50 percent), openness (30 percent), economic variability (15 percent), and international reserves (5 percent)" but they are denominated in terms of the IMF's paper gold SDRs, which is determined by ... It's one heck of maze, but quite a few paths seem to end in the IMF's vaults of gold bars---the real solid, shiny stuff. And perhaps rightly so: one of the world's two major needs to know where the money is before then lend any, and with gold, someone can actually go to the basement, look at it, touch, and come back upstairs to say "yes, the money is there".
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Post by jakaswanga on Jan 12, 2014 12:30:26 GMT 3
WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE! CEJ MAN-K OF JUKWAA!The war of the worlds of history and economics!Amigo Mank! You can run, but I wont let you hide! Like an Erinye in the pursuit of Orestes, I will hunt you down to all corners of the bounteous Mama Earth! and put a knife to your throat! My mad rage at you economists has re-surfaced! And what heinous crime have you committed of late to trigger the relapse!? Be patient and listen to me build a charge sheet. Amigo, I know I am not your brother yet. Some issues of protocol abound. But believe me I am working on it. And since you and I are pre-destined to be family, I can afford to be patient. And when that comes to pass, the first thing we will do is gang up on Njakip and his … (never mind) and run them out of town [ jukwaa] [And where do lost ghosts go? ]. But before all that can come to pass, there is a feud the Historian and the Economist have to settle in a machete duel. You and I. 1. Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde was in town Jan 8+ 2014 to fine tune her ECF poison [extended credit facility] And Mank, where does the IMF get her money from? I checked, and the top 5 are the usual suspects: the USA, Japan, the UK, and the EU heavy weights Germany and France.And these guys have been in a recession that threatened to go double dip!So where do these countries get their money, during a long recession like has been since the Housing-market crash initiated financial crisis that began in the USA? ---You catch where I am going amigo? And Otishotish has been raining blows inside my head, what is money, really, the habittual hooligan asks! I found out, that to finance his Bail-out, Obama the POTUS and his congress had mythically just upped the budget ceiling, so that the FED could freely create money out of nowhere, the [originally eternal series of] Quantitative Easing, and spend it on [productively] fictitious programs like buying back bonds and playing money markets! Take a look: Creating money ex nihilo! Out of nothing! Magic! Please Mank, is that an economist’s insider Joke! ---Let there be money and there Walhalla, was money! And yet we common folk think money is a measure of VALUE! No wonder Hjalmar Schacht, Hitler’s economic genius, worked his unparalleled miracle of bringing down hyper-inflation in a mum, by tying the VALUE OF THE D-MARK to an actual [expended] productive unit of German labour! He was not fictionally innovative like your Bank of Japan nor the FED! Schacht just had no head for fairy tales! Jobs that could be done got done and people moved on. But I have been watching the modern Eurozone too. There, the twin emergency fund reserve instruments, the ESM $ EFSF bazookas, (European Stability Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility), proved inadequate fire-fighting hoses when faced with Southern Europe economic meltdowns. What did the ECB do?They digitally added many zeros to the actual central bank depositos! In other words, the European Union too, created money ex nihilo! (with Germany a dissenting minor). From economic history I have since gathered that is how the game is played. Routine. Japan was the first to experiment with this Quantitative easing in recent times, during her enlengthened recession. The new innovation is, quantitative has become limitless! So too had the British Central bank [Bank of England]. But what makes this modern QE’s unique, is their scale and limitlessness. Quantitative may indicate a specified amount being injected, but Nay, Ben Bernanke as FED Chair then, and Draghi as ECB boss, had inserted a psychological rock: as long as is necessary, and we will do whatever it takes! Igniting a feeding frenzy of the piranhas at the top of the feeding chain. With the opposite of the intended results as the reality. Yes, ex nihilo, Mank, you economists have hit the eternal el-dorado! you could create value forever this way! Monetarism has replaced productivity in economic thinking, the economy totally financialised, and labour, hitherto a heroic factor in production, marginal and irrelevant. Parasitic orthodoxy had reached its evolutionary dead-end. The host was unnecessary! ANECDOTE:Sacrifice your children and it will rain, said the chief priest. They sacrificed 2, but still it did not rain. Sacrifice 4 then, the gods have gotten greedy. They did but still it did not rain. Why not sacrifice all the children then in a last ditch effort? [that is the dead end of radical orthodoxy. When a train leaves the rail tracks, it is derailed!] 3. So when Christin Lagarde came to Kenya and was smilingly dishing out money ---aka ECF [extended credit facility periodic disbursements to big up the scared Kenya shilling]---- to an equally smiling Rotich [cabinet financial secretary], Ndung’u [CBK], Uhuru [PORK], it was fictitious money she was broadcasting around!? Mank! This is a game of illusionists! a PYRAMID SCHEME that is great so long it latsts! And you, as an economist, and worse, the Chief economis of Jukwaa [CEJ], should be taken to the guillotine and have your head decapitated for okaying it! In mitigation I will say, you were the first Kenyan economist I read who foresaw the costs of the new constitution as an economic burden the rank of stupidity. So may be I should use my machete to slice off your ears and not severe you neck! On the can Kenya go bankrupt Detroit thread jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8589, remember we argued with a fellow name Fimbo? I honestly suspect Fimbo is limitless quantitative easing theoretician! And I believe the minister of finance may just need him on his staff, to write the script for sedative illusions to be served to Wanjiku if some [shillingi] shocks come, as Uhuru Kenyatta feared. Amigo Mank, so I make my case for brandishing a historian’s machete at you the economist! But, I wonder, If the FED and ECB and BOJ [bank of japap] got away with ex nihilo creation of ‘’wealth’’, why wouldn’t Fimbo at CBK? Jakaswanga: That mention of gold brought up some random thoughts: * What exactly is money? (Maybe our D-Scientist, Friend Mank G-Scientist could help us there.) Even excluding the Congo, Zimbabwe cases of piles of worthless bank notes ... there was a time when just a banknote just about anywhere in the world had the words "the Central Bank of Timbuktu (or wherever) promises to pay the bearer, on presentation of this note, the sum of [whatever] the note said". I always wondered what would happen if I took my banknote to the bank and demanded to be paid my sum of whatever. * Does money really exist? And for whom? I was reflecting on the fact that, like most people who live in a modern economy, I rarely see or handle money (in the sense of banknotes and coins). Once in a while, I get a note from my employer that I have been paid. I then get on my computer or pull out my cheque-book to pay for regular bills etc. For the rest, there is some bit of plastic: even to board a bus or a train, some of whatever the bank claims I have is simply transferred to my "transit card". One of these days, I might just hack into the bank's system and give myself a whole lot of money ... has to be better than wearing a mask and waving guns in people's faces. * Did gold really disappear from the monetary system? Today the IMF is still something like the world's third largest official holder of gold reserves---that is, the real solid stuff, not paper money: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htmWhen it became clear that most of the world would not tie currencies to gold stocks, the IMF did not get rid of its gold. It simply created "paper gold", which it named Special Drawing Rights, fortunate considering what happened a few years later: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htmwhich is its own currency but which it claims is "a potential claim to a currency" and not a currency. (Putting one "meta" for the potential and one "meta" for the claim, I suppose we may call it a meta-meta currency.) There is a story that in the old days, as transactions took place, the IMF had a little man whose special job was to physically move gold bars from the vault associated with that one country into the vault associated with another country. Probably apocryphal, but I like the story ... Anyway, a more useful point about the SDRs: money borrowed from the IMF is paid back in terms of the IMF's "SDR interest rates", at the end of the day is based on who has the real say on the value of an SDR. At any rate, there are at least two points to observe here: One, when the IMF considers how much "money" it has, it also takes into account its gold reserves and the prevailing price of gold, both of which will have an effect on any country looking for IMF largesse. Two, the current calculation of the value of an SDR shows which currencies really matter: euro, yen, sterling and US dollar. (Even those most excited "turning east" will not be caught with too many yuan or roubles.) And of course, even among equals some are more equal than others: at the IMF "voting rights" do matter. Any serious change at the IMF requires 85% of the "votes", but, lo and behold, a certain country has about 17% of the "votes". Here is an interesting table: www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspxThe new system after significant reforms (note that all countries, except the most equal one, are grouped into randomly named blocs): www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10418.htmThe voting rights are, quite sensibly, calculated on the basis of "a weighted average of GDP (weight of 50 percent), openness (30 percent), economic variability (15 percent), and international reserves (5 percent)" but they are denominated in terms of the IMF's paper gold SDRs, which is determined by ... It's one heck of maze, but quite a few paths seem to end in the IMF's vaults of gold bars---the real solid, shiny stuff. And perhaps rightly so: one of the world's two major needs to know where the money is before then lend any, and with gold, someone can actually go to the basement, look at it, touch, and come back upstairs to say "yes, the money is there".
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Post by mank on Jan 20, 2014 10:52:44 GMT 3
WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE! CEJ MAN-K OF JUKWAA!The war of the worlds of history and economics!Amigo Mank! You can run, but I wont let you hide! Like an Erinye in the pursuit of Orestes, I will hunt you down to all corners of the bounteous Mama Earth! and put a knife to your throat! My mad rage at you economists has re-surfaced! And what heinous crime have you committed of late to trigger the relapse!? Be patient and listen to me build a charge sheet. Amigo, I know I am not your brother yet. Some issues of protocol abound. But believe me I am working on it. And since you and I are pre-destined to be family, I can afford to be patient. And when that comes to pass, the first thing we will do is gang up on Njakip and his … (never mind) and run them out of town [ jukwaa] [And where do lost ghosts go? ]. But before all that can come to pass, there is a feud the Historian and the Economist have to settle in a machete duel. You and I. 1. Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde was in town Jan 8+ 2014 to fine tune her ECF poison [extended credit facility] And Mank, where does the IMF get her money from? I checked, and the top 5 are the usual suspects: the USA, Japan, the UK, and the EU heavy weights Germany and France.And these guys have been in a recession that threatened to go double dip!So where do these countries get their money, during a long recession like has been since the Housing-market crash initiated financial crisis that began in the USA? ---You catch where I am going amigo? And Otishotish has been raining blows inside my head, what is money, really, the habittual hooligan asks! I found out, that to finance his Bail-out, Obama the POTUS and his congress had mythically just upped the budget ceiling, so that the FED could freely create money out of nowhere, the [originally eternal series of] Quantitative Easing, and spend it on [productively] fictitious programs like buying back bonds and playing money markets! Take a look: Creating money ex nihilo! Out of nothing! Magic! Please Mank, is that an economist’s insider Joke! ---Let there be money and there Walhalla, was money! And yet we common folk think money is a measure of VALUE! No wonder Hjalmar Schacht, Hitler’s economic genius, worked his unparalleled miracle of bringing down hyper-inflation in a mum, by tying the VALUE OF THE D-MARK to an actual [expended] productive unit of German labour! He was not fictionally innovative like your Bank of Japan nor the FED! Schacht just had no head for fairy tales! Jobs that could be done got done and people moved on. But I have been watching the modern Eurozone too. There, the twin emergency fund reserve instruments, the ESM $ EFSF bazookas, (European Stability Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility), proved inadequate fire-fighting hoses when faced with Southern Europe economic meltdowns. What did the ECB do?They digitally added many zeros to the actual central bank depositos! In other words, the European Union too, created money ex nihilo! (with Germany a dissenting minor). From economic history I have since gathered that is how the game is played. Routine. Japan was the first to experiment with this Quantitative easing in recent times, during her enlengthened recession. The new innovation is, quantitative has become limitless! So too had the British Central bank [Bank of England]. But what makes this modern QE’s unique, is their scale and limitlessness. Quantitative may indicate a specified amount being injected, but Nay, Ben Bernanke as FED Chair then, and Draghi as ECB boss, had inserted a psychological rock: as long as is necessary, and we will do whatever it takes! Igniting a feeding frenzy of the piranhas at the top of the feeding chain. With the opposite of the intended results as the reality. Yes, ex nihilo, Mank, you economists have hit the eternal el-dorado! you could create value forever this way! Monetarism has replaced productivity in economic thinking, the economy totally financialised, and labour, hitherto a heroic factor in production, marginal and irrelevant. Parasitic orthodoxy had reached its evolutionary dead-end. The host was unnecessary! ANECDOTE:Sacrifice your children and it will rain, said the chief priest. They sacrificed 2, but still it did not rain. Sacrifice 4 then, the gods have gotten greedy. They did but still it did not rain. Why not sacrifice all the children then in a last ditch effort? [that is the dead end of radical orthodoxy. When a train leaves the rail tracks, it is derailed!] 3. So when Christin Lagarde came to Kenya and was smilingly dishing out money ---aka ECF [extended credit facility periodic disbursements to big up the scared Kenya shilling]---- to an equally smiling Rotich [cabinet financial secretary], Ndung’u [CBK], Uhuru [PORK], it was fictitious money she was broadcasting around!? Mank! This is a game of illusionists! a PYRAMID SCHEME that is great so long it latsts! And you, as an economist, and worse, the Chief economis of Jukwaa [CEJ], should be taken to the guillotine and have your head decapitated for okaying it! In mitigation I will say, you were the first Kenyan economist I read who foresaw the costs of the new constitution as an economic burden the rank of stupidity. So may be I should use my machete to slice off your ears and not severe you neck! On the can Kenya go bankrupt Detroit thread jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8589, remember we argued with a fellow name Fimbo? I honestly suspect Fimbo is limitless quantitative easing theoretician! And I believe the minister of finance may just need him on his staff, to write the script for sedative illusions to be served to Wanjiku if some [shillingi] shocks come, as Uhuru Kenyatta feared. Amigo Mank, so I make my case for brandishing a historian’s machete at you the economist! But, I wonder, If the FED and ECB and BOJ [bank of japap] got away with ex nihilo creation of ‘’wealth’’, why wouldn’t Fimbo at CBK? Jakaswanga: That mention of gold brought up some random thoughts: * What exactly is money? (Maybe our D-Scientist, Friend Mank G-Scientist could help us there.) Even excluding the Congo, Zimbabwe cases of piles of worthless bank notes ... there was a time when just a banknote just about anywhere in the world had the words "the Central Bank of Timbuktu (or wherever) promises to pay the bearer, on presentation of this note, the sum of [whatever] the note said". I always wondered what would happen if I took my banknote to the bank and demanded to be paid my sum of whatever. * Does money really exist? And for whom? I was reflecting on the fact that, like most people who live in a modern economy, I rarely see or handle money (in the sense of banknotes and coins). Once in a while, I get a note from my employer that I have been paid. I then get on my computer or pull out my cheque-book to pay for regular bills etc. For the rest, there is some bit of plastic: even to board a bus or a train, some of whatever the bank claims I have is simply transferred to my "transit card". One of these days, I might just hack into the bank's system and give myself a whole lot of money ... has to be better than wearing a mask and waving guns in people's faces. * Did gold really disappear from the monetary system? Today the IMF is still something like the world's third largest official holder of gold reserves---that is, the real solid stuff, not paper money: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htmWhen it became clear that most of the world would not tie currencies to gold stocks, the IMF did not get rid of its gold. It simply created "paper gold", which it named Special Drawing Rights, fortunate considering what happened a few years later: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htmwhich is its own currency but which it claims is "a potential claim to a currency" and not a currency. (Putting one "meta" for the potential and one "meta" for the claim, I suppose we may call it a meta-meta currency.) There is a story that in the old days, as transactions took place, the IMF had a little man whose special job was to physically move gold bars from the vault associated with that one country into the vault associated with another country. Probably apocryphal, but I like the story ... Anyway, a more useful point about the SDRs: money borrowed from the IMF is paid back in terms of the IMF's "SDR interest rates", at the end of the day is based on who has the real say on the value of an SDR. At any rate, there are at least two points to observe here: One, when the IMF considers how much "money" it has, it also takes into account its gold reserves and the prevailing price of gold, both of which will have an effect on any country looking for IMF largesse. Two, the current calculation of the value of an SDR shows which currencies really matter: euro, yen, sterling and US dollar. (Even those most excited "turning east" will not be caught with too many yuan or roubles.) And of course, even among equals some are more equal than others: at the IMF "voting rights" do matter. Any serious change at the IMF requires 85% of the "votes", but, lo and behold, a certain country has about 17% of the "votes". Here is an interesting table: www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspxThe new system after significant reforms (note that all countries, except the most equal one, are grouped into randomly named blocs): www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10418.htmThe voting rights are, quite sensibly, calculated on the basis of "a weighted average of GDP (weight of 50 percent), openness (30 percent), economic variability (15 percent), and international reserves (5 percent)" but they are denominated in terms of the IMF's paper gold SDRs, which is determined by ... It's one heck of maze, but quite a few paths seem to end in the IMF's vaults of gold bars---the real solid, shiny stuff. And perhaps rightly so: one of the world's two major needs to know where the money is before then lend any, and with gold, someone can actually go to the basement, look at it, touch, and come back upstairs to say "yes, the money is there". my my my .... no wonder I kept hitting my left toe against rocks and the sharp corners of walls! It is all ripe and sore now! All due to amigo's fury at the hunt in remote, now I know! I am quite intrigued to know that you are working on a familial relationship. I have sent word to the slopes that you are coming in style, to take away our sisternice and leave us with a bunch of animals in dowry .. . you can't take her just like that you know ... she's golden! Since you are a friend though, I will sneak a thought for you to use in the burgain with the elders ... elders will ask for a horse, but you should offer a donkey ... I just want you to get a fair deal ... or otherwise our friendship will be risked. With that friendly gesture I hope you are less inclined to put a dagger in my throat. You will need me on your side after you take our troubles to be your own. Now my friend, what a cross you put over my not-so-humble shoulders, to demand that I speak for International Mother F ... (oh, the shorthand)! Long time ago I recall telling you how politicians misuse economics, peddling their politics as what economics would advocate for! Remember? I may not recall the very words, but I was referring to politicians with economist credentials. They will tell you "... take it from me, I am an economist." It turns out we equally have political institutions masquerading as institutions of economic puzzle-solvers ... that is the IMFker for you! Recall the years of Moi, when we were so done with that we could have cried to the rats? What did the IMF do for us then, but quit, blaming us for our mess! I will speak for economics, and especially microeconomics any day ... but for policy interventions I have no apologies for being cynical! I can reason with you on what economic intervention is reasonable in given situations, but to speak for the institutions that intervene in various situations, apparently with disguised political motivations, hey amigo, I give up! If that causes you amigo to abandon the plan of taking my burdens for your own, in return for lots of animals and some form of brotherhood, so be it! You will never be forgiven if you abandon the plan. I found this fury of yours while trying to dig out that thread of ours, where we were wondering whether bankruptsy is a far-fetched possibility for a state! I was looking for it after being sensitized by a journalist who observes that spending by local governments in 2013 went to renumeration only, rather than public programs! Ooooh .... what a surprise (not really ... we had foreseen this not just in the thread, but in the referendum campaigns)!
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Post by merkeju on Jan 20, 2014 11:52:57 GMT 3
WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE! CEJ MAN-K OF JUKWAA!The war of the worlds of history and economics!Amigo Mank! You can run, but I wont let you hide! Like an Erinye in the pursuit of Orestes, I will hunt you down to all corners of the bounteous Mama Earth! and put a knife to your throat! My mad rage at you economists has re-surfaced! And what heinous crime have you committed of late to trigger the relapse!? Be patient and listen to me build a charge sheet. Amigo, I know I am not your brother yet. Some issues of protocol abound. But believe me I am working on it. And since you and I are pre-destined to be family, I can afford to be patient. And when that comes to pass, the first thing we will do is gang up on Njakip and his … (never mind) and run them out of town [ jukwaa] [And where do lost ghosts go? ]. But before all that can come to pass, there is a feud the Historian and the Economist have to settle in a machete duel. You and I. 1. Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde was in town Jan 8+ 2014 to fine tune her ECF poison [extended credit facility] And Mank, where does the IMF get her money from? I checked, and the top 5 are the usual suspects: the USA, Japan, the UK, and the EU heavy weights Germany and France.And these guys have been in a recession that threatened to go double dip!So where do these countries get their money, during a long recession like has been since the Housing-market crash initiated financial crisis that began in the USA? ---You catch where I am going amigo? And Otishotish has been raining blows inside my head, what is money, really, the habittual hooligan asks! I found out, that to finance his Bail-out, Obama the POTUS and his congress had mythically just upped the budget ceiling, so that the FED could freely create money out of nowhere, the [originally eternal series of] Quantitative Easing, and spend it on [productively] fictitious programs like buying back bonds and playing money markets! Take a look: Creating money ex nihilo! Out of nothing! Magic! Please Mank, is that an economist’s insider Joke! ---Let there be money and there Walhalla, was money! And yet we common folk think money is a measure of VALUE! No wonder Hjalmar Schacht, Hitler’s economic genius, worked his unparalleled miracle of bringing down hyper-inflation in a mum, by tying the VALUE OF THE D-MARK to an actual [expended] productive unit of German labour! He was not fictionally innovative like your Bank of Japan nor the FED! Schacht just had no head for fairy tales! Jobs that could be done got done and people moved on. But I have been watching the modern Eurozone too. There, the twin emergency fund reserve instruments, the ESM $ EFSF bazookas, (European Stability Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility), proved inadequate fire-fighting hoses when faced with Southern Europe economic meltdowns. What did the ECB do?They digitally added many zeros to the actual central bank depositos! In other words, the European Union too, created money ex nihilo! (with Germany a dissenting minor). From economic history I have since gathered that is how the game is played. Routine. Japan was the first to experiment with this Quantitative easing in recent times, during her enlengthened recession. The new innovation is, quantitative has become limitless! So too had the British Central bank [Bank of England]. But what makes this modern QE’s unique, is their scale and limitlessness. Quantitative may indicate a specified amount being injected, but Nay, Ben Bernanke as FED Chair then, and Draghi as ECB boss, had inserted a psychological rock: as long as is necessary, and we will do whatever it takes! Igniting a feeding frenzy of the piranhas at the top of the feeding chain. With the opposite of the intended results as the reality. Yes, ex nihilo, Mank, you economists have hit the eternal el-dorado! you could create value forever this way! Monetarism has replaced productivity in economic thinking, the economy totally financialised, and labour, hitherto a heroic factor in production, marginal and irrelevant. Parasitic orthodoxy had reached its evolutionary dead-end. The host was unnecessary! ANECDOTE:Sacrifice your children and it will rain, said the chief priest. They sacrificed 2, but still it did not rain. Sacrifice 4 then, the gods have gotten greedy. They did but still it did not rain. Why not sacrifice all the children then in a last ditch effort? [that is the dead end of radical orthodoxy. When a train leaves the rail tracks, it is derailed!] 3. So when Christin Lagarde came to Kenya and was smilingly dishing out money ---aka ECF [extended credit facility periodic disbursements to big up the scared Kenya shilling]---- to an equally smiling Rotich [cabinet financial secretary], Ndung’u [CBK], Uhuru [PORK], it was fictitious money she was broadcasting around!? Mank! This is a game of illusionists! a PYRAMID SCHEME that is great so long it latsts! And you, as an economist, and worse, the Chief economis of Jukwaa [CEJ], should be taken to the guillotine and have your head decapitated for okaying it! In mitigation I will say, you were the first Kenyan economist I read who foresaw the costs of the new constitution as an economic burden the rank of stupidity. So may be I should use my machete to slice off your ears and not severe you neck! On the can Kenya go bankrupt Detroit thread jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8589, remember we argued with a fellow name Fimbo? I honestly suspect Fimbo is limitless quantitative easing theoretician! And I believe the minister of finance may just need him on his staff, to write the script for sedative illusions to be served to Wanjiku if some [shillingi] shocks come, as Uhuru Kenyatta feared. Amigo Mank, so I make my case for brandishing a historian’s machete at you the economist! But, I wonder, If the FED and ECB and BOJ [bank of japap] got away with ex nihilo creation of ‘’wealth’’, why wouldn’t Fimbo at CBK? my my my .... no wonder I kept hitting my left toe against rocks and the sharp corners of walls! It is all ripe and sore now! All due to amigo's fury at the hunt in remote, now I know! I am quite intrigued to know that you are working on a familial relationship. I have sent word to the slopes that you are coming in style, to take away our sisternice and leave us with a bunch of animals in dowry .. . you can't take her just like that you know ... she's golden! Since you are a friend though, I will sneak a thought for you to use in the burgain with the elders ... elders will ask for a horse, but you should offer a donkey ... I just want you to get a fair deal ... or otherwise our friendship will be risked. With that friendly gesture I hope you are less inclined to put a dagger in my throat. You will need me on your side after you take our troubles to be your own. Now my friend, what a cross you put over my not-so-humble shoulders, to demand that I speak for International Mother F ... (oh, the shorthand)! Long time ago I recall telling you how politicians misuse economics, peddling their politics as what economics would advocate for! Remember? I may not recall the very words, but I was referring to politicians with economist credentials. They will tell you "... take it from me, I am an economist." It turns out we equally have political institutions masquerading as institutions of economic puzzle-solvers ... that is the IMFker for you! Recall the years of Moi, when we were so done with that we could have cried to the rats? What did the IMF do for us then, but quit, blaming us for our mess! I will speak for economics, and especially microeconomics any day ... but for policy interventions I have no apologies for being cynical! I can reason with you on what economic intervention is reasonable in given situations, but to speak for the institutions that intervene in various situations, apparently with disguised political motivations, hey amigo, I give up! If that causes you amigo to abandon the plan of taking my burdens for your own, in return for lots of animals and some form of brotherhood, so be it! You will never be forgiven if you abandon the plan. I found this fury of yours while trying to dig out that thread of ours, where we were wondering whether bankruptsy is a far-fetched possibility for a state! I was looking for it after being sensitized by a journalist who observes that spending by local governments in 2013 went to renumeration only, rather than public programs! Ooooh .... what a surprise (not really ... we had foreseen this not just in the thread, but in the referendum campaigns)!
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Post by jakaswanga on Apr 19, 2014 14:58:49 GMT 3
NIGERIA SHOOTS TO THE TOP IN A SPECTACULAR RE-CALCULATION!Yesterday’s poster boy? Or a ressurecting giant!? In case you missed it in the head long rush to the Easter weekend, the big story from Africa this week has been Nigeria punching South Africa off the number one spot as Africa’s biggest economy. with its +290M people and the world’s 8th oil exporter, it was about time too. Sort of! But the comedy starts nearly as soon one listens to the announcement. First, Nigeria has always been the continent’s biggest economy, only the statistics were not up to date. So she overtook South Africa [$353 bn] in an overnight zwish, and not a gradual, protracted race. The GDP was corrected 89% up to $510 bn. ---I have actually never met an African who operated from the premise the South Africa economy were bigger than Nigeria's! That South Africa was in BRICS and Nigeria not, had other explanations, which I can only blog if I were pressed!Then another figure: average income per capita shoots to $2,700; but 60% of Nigerians live on less than a dollar/day. And the basic things that are called primaries for the mass, -- clean water, toilets, shelter, full belly, are just too expensive for this oil-run economy to afford. The income disparity between the top and the low, that is the concentration of wealth index, is the type political scientists refer to as volatile. Which immediately suggests there is more to Boko Haram than kidnapping school girls to satiate lust and indulge the Islamic passion for virgins. You can not keep a giant down! Though what I am really waiting for is the re-calculation of Kenya’s status. Uhuru Kenyatta’s swagger, I am sure, will put the deification of the Egyptian pretender of al Sissy field marshal to singular shame! I do not like this at all, it sounds to me like a covert gloat over the white-led NAZI-APARTHEID regime having showed the dumb natives a thing or two! I think Ikonjo Iweala is not seriously thinking. The military perse is not a problem. South Korea was industrialised by the military, murderous and brutal, but … Ikonjo’s diagnostic tools are wanting. Actually the military also stepped in after the CIVILIANS, the Shehu Shagaris and Dr. Alex Ekuweme’s, made even a greater mess. Not to speak of the first generation civilian leaders from independence. Now too, this lucky boy Jonathan does not look better than General Obasanjo to me! That is a joke of course, I have never seen a better dressed head of state anywhere! Jonathan dons a sombrero and looks dandy smart, Salvar Kiir does so, and looks unkempt like a Wild West rogue cowboy destined to die in a shoot-out with a dead-shot sheriff! 3.bp.blogspot.com/--m31ZGO0FsI/UiBap1nsX8I/AAAAAAAAAXI/uisgNErmtkI/s1600/jonathan.png[/img] Come on Amigo Mank! You mean figures are as debatable as every opinion!? That figures too have no undisputability!? Merely depending on who gathered them? Thus using them for decisions of policy can be building on a foundation of quicksand!?
No, it is not all vanity, Mr. Rewane, in the fetishism of commodities, and the mysticism of money, these revised statistics mean Nigeria’s credit ratings are polished. It means Nigeria can today borrow more money from the financial markets, and at a lower interest rate, less risk, than it could before the revision! The fetishism of numbers. ---If the financial markets do not believe these numbers … that is when they would be a vanity. Ach, the financial markets, we have seen Banks in Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Iceland, Holland, France, which were many times richer than the countries they are based in. Then something happened overnight, beginning with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in New York, then all these banks had to be BAILED OUT by their countries which were officially poorer than them! That was when I learnt the trick about numbers. There is the real world, and there is the virtual world. In the real world, the taxpayer is your bank. Labour has to produce value. Labour always pays up the debts. Arbeit! But banks are constructions which can be richer than the whole world today, and collapse without a trace tomorrow! Because central bankers can just credit many zeroes to their account figures in magical value creation! But taxpayers can never perform such a money-doubling racket, nor an equivalent evaporation act. ---But you can read the MONEY DOUBLERS OF ONITSHA MARKET, short story by Chinua Achebe, or someone else --I will check!
These central bankers tricks was the beginning of my fascination with Hjalmar Schacht who based the German currency on a unit of productive labour expended in the German economy, and not the statistical value derived from financial markets manipulated by speculators and other parasites. I still think, even after Henry Rotich announces the improved, pimped-up statistics which will show Kenya’s GDP is actually 50% higher than the current figure of $ 40 bn, he will still be skating on thin ice toward a debt bubble! I am noticing strains in orthordoxy.
Working the interest rate no longer aroused the markets? BUT WHY HAD THIS TOOL BECOME BLUNT!? After all, it had been working for a century!? No? In biology they would say the pest, or the offending strain of micro-organism, had become resistant to the remedy after overuse, the way DDT was neutralised by a slight mutation in the target gene pool. Well the ECONOMIST is as good a teacher as any lab technician, when it comes to cystal-balling the invisible hand of the markets at a microscopic level. So let us take the tutorial, keeping in mind that the FED had to go to QE 2 .. 3 … etc after. Electronic cash that did not exist before! LET THERE BE MONEY, AND THERE WAS MONEY! –Rubbing the magic lamp and out shoots the powerful djini, as in a tail from the Arabian nights! - I do not have to have sat at econometric school in Harvard to know bullsh!t when I see it! Human beings are smart ---Hjalmar Schacht knew this and built on it. When you create fictitious value like you are god in a material market, human beings of course see through it, and calculate how to modify their behaviour accordingly or not. - 1. Some, no fools, choose to go along with the pretence, confident they can play ahead of the game and choose when to exit before the collapse of the bubble. They preach water and drink wine. The hypocrite is a ruthless individualist, a cold and cynical operator. But a realist. - 2. Others just do not buy the nonsense and do not bother with the dead oracles spewing dead and rote prophecies. They chart their own course, article 15 in Congo. - 3. Others trust the Pope or the Imam whose words are divine they believe, and even as they see reality is not obeying the high priests of the market like the Fed Chair, the IMF boss or the ECB chair, they keep the scriptures. - I believe these policies are not working because too many people have discovered the cynicism behind the bankers and politicians, and make their consumer decisions based on otherwise premises than the official doctrine. There is a micro-economic revolt in the centers of capital. The consumer is off the model. I will compare this to the wave of secularisation in the 60s when churches became ever emptier up North. The flock went off the model. The sheep stole out of the pen! - The ECONOMIST IS WORRIED, undecided. That is bad for such a canon. Markets do not like uncertainity. Because uncertainity is the baptismal of reality. Take a look at the conclusion. Well, Amigo Mank, was that you telling me the Italian Draghi of the Euro Central Bank at Frankfurt may be in for a surprise as he fiddles the control panels in his cockpit? Flying spooky! - Well, he is in good company, the Russian minister of finance too looked most worried! What with those sanctions set to escalate! - And the combination of these two ---a worried ECB and a worried Russian CBK, is in my opinion the true explanation why the Ukrainian deal was ‘’surprisingly’’ reached in Geneva on Thursday! - www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu -
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Post by podp on Apr 19, 2014 19:58:12 GMT 3
NIGERIA SHOOTS TO THE TOP IN A SPECTACULAR RE-CALCULATION!Yesterday’s poster boy? Or a ressurecting giant!? [/quote] now he is 'bad luck Jonathan' because among other factors the way he has handled entral Bank.Sanusi the former governor of Nigerian equivalent of our Central Bank. Firstly, Sanusi adopted the mentality of a transport owner who simply calculates returns per day of N10,000 and concludes that, at the end of a 31-day month, he would have N310,000, and, therefore, went to town claiming that $49.8billion dollars was missing from the coffers of the NNPC – he did not factor in the daily vicissitudes of commercial bus operations . The same Sanusi later admitted with the Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, that the missing fund is far less than that. www.vanguardngr.com/2014/02/prologue-sanusi-saga-without-benefit-wisdom/this reminded me of late Fela Kuti's song 'ITT" aka International Thief Thief when Sanusi blew the whistle that $ 20 billion was missing from President 'bad luck J' downwards the sycophants to military businessmen the chorus was Sanusi must go until the Judiciary which has more men with balls than ours reminded the State to return his passport which airport Immigration officials had seized and some pending salary unpaid the courts made him be paid despite President 'bad luck J' having dropped him and only a month later claimed t hat only $ 10 billion was missing because of an accounting error borrowed from our PORK when he was Finance Minister and committed a typing error! our own Central Bank Governor may never dare tread where Sanusi has. The timing of Sanusi’s suspension, the bad image of the NNPC, ethnic cum sectional sentiments and the much-talked-about autonomy of the CBN have been extensively exploited to serve as arguments against his suspension. In doing so, the weighty infractions committed by him have been relegated to the background. The vital questions that arise are: How defensible is the expenditure of N20.202 billion on legal and professional fees in 2011; N3.08 billion on promotional activities in 2012; N1.257 billion on guards and lunch for policemen in 2012; and the writing off of N40 billion loans to a bank? www.tribune.com.ng/news2013/index.php/en/editorial/item/34700-the-lamido-sanusi-saga.htmlso on that from I do agree with your assertions on Nigeria rising.
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Post by jakaswanga on Apr 21, 2014 13:37:48 GMT 3
Beware Afrika! I see our Central Bankers and chancellors of the Exchequers have embarked on a massive statistical upgrade of the status of our various GDP's! They are certainly not the only illusionists in the market. The world, has become Onitsha CENTRAL BANKERS of THE MAJOR ECONOMIES HAVE RUN OUT OF ORTHODOX TRICKS. Enter the era of super illusionists! This bankruptcy of official policy is a game changer, and Afrika must find out really why China is hoarding Gold! Our addiction to the dollar must be questioned. But that is a long story, and we will go about it in parts. First: THE ILLUSIONISTS. Mark Carney, governor of the bank of England. Mario Draghi of the ECB. They are fiddling, throwing smokescreens to hoodwink the markets and the people, but it is an act increasingly being bought by fewer and fewer. All that glitters, is no longer gold. There was a time the leaves of the oak at Dodona told truths as the wind flowed through them, and folks in their ‘’simplicity were content to hear an oak rock, provided it told the truth’’. Here is a Greek philosopher in his own words: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodona Our Central Banks, especially those of the West –the famous FED, the bank of England, the ECB, the Bundesbank, are of course towering citadels of prophetic models of the global economy. As the Chairs ruffle their papers –the rushing through the leaves of the Dodona Oak- and proclaim their truths in lofty press conferences steeped in awesome rituals, the people of our time, not wanting to be taken for another ride, politely listen as good manners dictate before the worshipped. But once out of earshot, the people burst with pent up laughter and place bets on how long the show will last before the priests have to find employ elsewhere, and the Holy Banks, become relics. Like Dodona, and the deep-drawling Delphis. This is current Dodona. What remains of the the world’s once most powerful oracle. These ‘’Latin’’ words from Central Bank High Priests, incanted in ritual obscurantism to an illiterate peasantry, can go only so far to confer obeisance by the power of mysticism. Reality will smash them and open the eyes of all. ---Tapering, Quantitative easing, sequestrations, -tive interest rates (ECB Chair Draghi’s latest divine mumble), all will reveal themselves for what they are, which the initiated already know but are hiding, and if revealing, only piecemeal. This British spitting sense of humour tells you a lot. This is chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne and Governor of the bank of England Carney, hired from Canada at an extortionist rate. bonds.about.com/od/advancedbonds/a/What-Is-Quantitative-Easing.htm And so more QE’s were needed. 1, 2, 3. And Ben Bernanke’s head called for the chop by some patriots. Charge: counterfeiting. But executing the tired old King did not change the system. www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/02/03/janet-yellens-fed-challenges-start-immediately Janet Yellen, the new FED Chair. To be continued. Somebody help me out: I am looking for the title of the short story by Chinua Achebe which handles MONEY DOUBLING at Onitsha Market, Nigeria. I have not found this title at the Achebe bibliography, yet I am sure, from memory, that Dr. Omollosing who was our Achebe specialist, made us take a long think about this story! I think there was a character in it called Chike who wanted to cross the river [ of Poverty to the other bank of Industrialisation] but had not enough fare! Wherefrom he met the money-doubling character! I am sory Amigo Mank --chief econometrist of Jukwaa, but it really looks to me like all these your monetary abracadabra like quantitative easing and the rest, are just the money doublers of Onitsha and other stories already told so well in folklore narratives!
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