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Post by omundu on Mar 26, 2014 0:49:54 GMT 3
Jakaswanga.
I am sure you remember before Russia's invasion when their Foreign minister convinced John Kerry (chamberlain wise) that they have no intention to invade Crimea. When Putin amassed troops by the border and claimed that it was a routine training exercise. We all remember how Kerry ended up with egg on his face when the Russians eventually invaded Crimea.
The same script is currently being played by the border with eastern Ukraine. Would you surely put anything past such a devious character ?
I actually find Obamas reaction to developments quite sober. I mean, against pressure from Neo-cons and repubs like Mc Cain and the chap who lost the election, he still appears to be the adult in the room proposing measures like sanctions which will only be increased if Putin ascends to his salivating nature for territory. Obamas and the west will only increase sanctions when/if Putin decides on eastern Ukraine. It is a long term game.
There are a lot of other avenues the west could take including rescinding the missile treaty, sending NATO troops to the borders of Eastern Ukraine or increasing NATO prescence in eastern NATO member states, supplying Ukraine with weapons etc etc. But they are currently taking the mature approach against a bully.
NATO was beating war drums today you say. But no policy has been reached towards that opposed to Putin who acted militarily.
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Post by omundu on Mar 25, 2014 23:58:13 GMT 3
Well, I was advised above to avoid conspiracies so here goes.
The Ukrainian situation has divided commentators into the Pro-annexation vs anti annexation. Obviously some don't care.
Amongst the Pro-Invasion we have those who think that irregardless of its illegality under international law, Putin has a valid enough reason to annex Ukraine. Then there are those in the Chomsky's school of thought who believe that the west, especially america has no right to criticise because they have and are committing evil acts themselves. Evil incarnate. It deprives them the right to criticize.
Then we have those (whom I belong to) who believe that no country can claim purity in this world. Everyone should critic everyone, including those we support but not exclusively. Even americans should criticize themselves (heck, even Obama does that to Bush's policies). I believe we can't justify Imperialism so long as its not the west taking part.
Back to my gist... What was it again ? Ohhh PROPAGANDA. Let's debunk some tales told with emphasis on Putins side (I say that because he has just illegally annexed a country and that should be the topic of discussion)
- THE "NEO-NAZI'S IN UKRAINE VS RUSSIAN LIBERATORS"
The so called NEO NAZI's were formerly called the Social National Party. They have been rebranding themselves over the years and now, under the Svoboda umbrella, have toned down their rhetoric and shed many of their extreme members. Besides, which parliamentary system in Europe doesn't have a far right Nationalist Party in the mix ?
Putin was trying to justify his move by claiming they are taking over but the fact is (anyone is welcome to research on it) the Right Sector are far from being the official voice of the Euromaidan movement. They actually comprise about 1 percent of the movement. The movement actually consists of dozens of different organizations like the Donetsk,Dnepropetrovsk, Crimea, Lviv, parties like; UDAR and Svoboda, Ukrainian Orthodox church etc and not a single one shows supremacy over the other.
However Yanukovitch permitted dozens to be slaughtered but now sits pretty under putins armpits.
- PROTECTING ETHNIC RUSSIANS (who are being prosecuted) RUSSIAN REFUGEES etc.
Very laughable to see that was the information peddled by Russian (State owned by the way B6K. As opposed to the liberalised news agencies in the west).
Fact is, there were no Ethnic Russians being prosecuted. There were no refugee camps as claimed. Refugee camps go through legal channels set up by the UN, who are in Ukraine mainland (observers also and press) and didn't see any of that. International observers were denied entry into Crimea. They were infact threatened and some people abducted. And if threatened, why not evacuate them ?
The only wrong was when the Ukrainian parliament, in a rather shortsighted move, banned the Russian language. The move was later vetoed by the president, Oleksandr. There is no independent news that proves ethnic russians were singled out because of their ethnicity.
Putin, then went ahead to justify that as grounds for invasion and annexation going against the gist of the 'wonderful' speech he made ages ago that convinced JAKASWANGA he is a noble, level headed chap :-)
Its is infact not acceptable under International law to violate the territorial integrity of another state to save ones own citizens. Article 2, paragraph 4 of the UN charter. (There is reason that was set up and it is a historical one. Remember Hitler ?) Unless it is self defense or a decision by the UNSC: Article 51.
- THOSE ARE NOT RUSSIAN TROOPS IN CRIMEA:
He went ahead and said that those uniforms could have been bought at any supermarket. Lolest. Like someone decided to buy 20 000 uniforms at the supermarket and the shop threw in tanks and trucks and army issued weapons with the order. Lol.
- ANNEXATION AS A COUNTER MOVE TO USA/WEST/NATO EXPANSION TOWARDS RUSSIA:
A part of this story Putin (the respector of sovereignty and borders as evidenced by his speech)cleverly leaves out below:
The history of NATO in EASTERN EUROPE is not as black and white as some are won't to believe. Nato stepped into the vacuum left by the end of the cold war and subsequent break up of the Soviet Union. Smaller states were being born, there was a fear of Russia's insurgence, the smaller nations also feared each other's unresolved historical disputes.
They came up with a programme called Partnership for Peace (PFP). Twelve Eastern European nations (incuding Russia) were members and most of them (by own accord) transitioned into NATO and eventually the EU (excluding Albania). That's how much of the warsaw pact came into the western alliance.
The 90's gave the above move a purpose as evidenced by humanitarian incidences like Yugoslavia where NATO had to step in via UNSC. Russia even signed to it because they could really do nothing themselves.
People don't realize it (maybe its because of lack of research or hunger for conspiracy theory)but NATO also protects member countries from tearing at each other. Italy still wants Nice back, Greece and Turkey hated each other before 2000, we also have the small matter of the Aegean islands and Cyprus. Without NATO, nations between Estonia and Hungary would have probably sought nukes to protects themselves from Germany in the west and Russia in the east.
Those eastern countries were not pressurized to Join NATO or the west. We can't blame NATO/west for agreeing to their demands. It would be folly to think that the eastern countries outside NATO's umbrella don't view Russia as a threat. The former warsaw pact nations are now sitting pretty under NATO's umbrella away from the threats of Mother Russia.
Ask yourselves this: If Nato hadn't agreed to allow in those eastern states, would Ukraine's situation be any different now ? Would Yanukovich not be corrupt ? Would the Bretton woods have refused when Ukraine came knocking for aid ? Would have Yanukovitch have still taken Russian aid and refused the western aid ? Would he not have been overthrown ? Would have Russia not moved into Crimea, Georgia or chenchynya ?
Isn't it then just a convenient excuse ? Besides, isn't it upon the citizens to determine their future.
It really has become exhausting hearing stories that somehow, the west/america, by covert means, spent money on civil organizations who paid hundreds of thousands of people to run into the street putting their lives at risk for the sake of Imperialism. It is a low bow and serious affront to protesters world wide.
I say, if you want to argue the above would have turned out different,that Putin would have been a different fella, the onus is on you to prove your point.
I personally treat such 'oooh, the americans, boogey man, CIA ' stories as conspiracy for lack of proof. There are obviously examples around the world where america's hand are unsmistakable like Grenada etc.
- REMOVING YANUKOVITCH WAS UNDEMOCRATIC.
No one disputes that Putin and Yanukovitch's Ukraine can be classified as 'electoral autocracies'. Putin's Russia is a kind of semi-authoritarian government possessing formal trappings of democracy while constanty subverting them. He who cares to lecture the world on democracy. Lol.
The Ukrainian citizens protested (freedom of speech - democracy) against Yanukovitch's keptocracy and his decision to go against the citizen's will of Western Europe. They even ensured that Parliament removes him (yes, a democratically elected parliament with impeachment powers)
Then someone comes here to tell us revolutions are undemocratic.
I disagree. We revolutions are a core part of democracy. A regular cleansing/reset button. We would not have had modern day democracy without revolutions. A way to perfect democracy if you will. England, France, China (Mao), even Russia had one (Boshevik), Iran in 1979. Infact, most western countries had to undergo revolutions for them to develop into full fledged democracies. We even have recent examples of Portugal in 1974, Greece after the military Junta of 67-74, spain after fransisco francos death in 1975 etc.
The unifying thread of most revoutions is opposition to authoritarianism and aspiration to democratic rule. Revolutions are spontaneous mass movements spurred by democratic impulses. (Though some take time for proper democracy to blossom)
Democracy does not simply mean 'free and fair' elections. Other vital elements including human rights, free press etc preclude it.
So whatever Putin, and others have been telling us lately about 'undemocratically removing a yanukovitch' doesn't wash.
There can be no higher authorizing force than the citizens themselves.
Unedited.
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Post by omundu on Mar 25, 2014 21:17:31 GMT 3
Omundu, it seems the possibility that both sides may be involved in churning out propaganda eludes you. Also, the phone call in question was between a man and a woman. The man is the Estonian representative who informs the EU representative of Ms Olga's findings. YET you refer to the Estonian rep as "she" time and again. Please don't tell me you suffer from the inability to tell a he from a she. Kindly confirm as you've gone from confusing centuries earlier to confusing genders of the players. Once it's clearer what or whom you're talking about, it may be easier to address your query. I am glad you realize the possibility of propaganda. And it seems that it may have also eluded you in your post about the Fascists. Thanks for correcting my use of English language. Care to "correct" my facts now ?
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Post by omundu on Mar 25, 2014 21:12:36 GMT 3
This is a raving lunatic straight out of the neo-con test-tube. If Putin is not tied to those rational considerations, how does one explain the massive investment of Russia in the S outh Stream gas pipeline? Eur 45 bn. And looking at the number of countries and companies in the project, how irrational would they have to be, to join Putin in his ‘no longer rational considerations’? I think Morozov is a moron. Let me find out what the other Alexander thinks, Solzhenitsyn, and report back later for comparison. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream Omundu, I sincerely believe Morozov is the one who is irrational. The idea of Russia re-occupying the baltic states! Preposterous! Reading Putin’s speech as relayed by NowayHaha, I find Putin extremely balanced, logical and very low on Russian empire jingoism. ---On the contrary, listening to a former NATO secretary General yesterday, it is NATO which seems frozen in the cold war mentality. Banging war drums. There is an Nuclear Security Summit up north in the Hague today, we will hear what consensus is generated to further isolate Russia. Quote: Morozov: ''the Kremlin could roll its troops up to the border of the Baltic states and demand the withdrawal of NATO units there.'' This is pure madness. This Morozov is an extremist fantast! On the fringes of coherence! Indeed Jakaswanga. You have judged Putin to be sober minded by his speech. How about we now judge him by his actions in regard to the international law he seems to so expound by his speech. ? Different case I tellz ya.
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Post by omundu on Mar 24, 2014 17:22:39 GMT 3
The Daily Beast attempts its own view (echoing my own view, especially after hearing Putins speech to his parliament) of Putins "Imperial dream".I had said earlier that This man Putin is living in a eighteenth century mindset. Excerpts from the article below: ...As journalist and political scientist Alexander Morozov writes in his widely-read essay “Conservative Revolution: Making Sense of Crimea,” Putin’s logic is no longer tied to those rational considerations of cooperation and economic interdependence on which the West puts so much faith. His is now a “revolutionary” mindset in which he and his followers are ready to sacrifice Western capital, risk having their assets frozen, and rely on “political myth”—a focus on heroism, sacrifice and martyrdom—to generate public support. There is no rational response to this. Those infected by the myth cannot imagine any other possibility for the future but success: “Crimea is ours!”...
To try understand him in the modern world order of business is futile. And the following excerpt is the reason why Crimea may not be the end.I think Putin dares the west by pulling an outrageous move to see how far he can go, lets the situation calm down until the next opportunity is offered to him. Chunk by chunk, piece by piece as evidenced in previous moves against his neighbors. But how far will he go ? Western inaction last time convinced him that he can pull a Georgia on Crimea and get away with it. I personally believe the west should press on with more Sanctions and prevent him from such attempts in future. ...Morozov suggests the Kremlin could roll its troops up to the border of the Baltic states and demand the withdrawal of NATO units there. “Nothing keeps it from taking such steps now, because its moves are defined by revolutionary logic not political rationality,” writes Morozov. “If you can force your jackboot in the door, you can try to go all the way.”
So, Russians appear to be possessed by their desire to pull together all the lands held by the Russian Empire a hundred years ago. Even to the most simple-minded of Putin’s supporters, this has come to seem a spiritual mission, though few could explain it convincingly before an audience. Popular Russian media suggest two ways to conceive of this cause, one based on “Spiritual Ties” among Russians, the other as resistance to the “Venal Perverted West.” Constant propaganda impresses on the minds of average Russians that they are exceptional because of where they were born and the language they speak, but apart from that does little to elucidate the riddle of this exceptionalism. Instead they fall back on the “Mysterious Russian Soul,” which means “something perfect that nobody can explain,” and those who would dare to try intepreting it are playing the game of the “Venal Perverted West.”
But such primitive and fanciful ideas are just the skin on top of hot milk. An ideologue named Sergey Kurginyan has tried to articulate a much more extensive and coherent vision of Russian superiority to justify what he calls “USSR 2.0.”
“The only possible form in which our country can exist is as an empire that is a union of equal peoples,” writes Kurginyan. The Russian people should form the state at the center, “a nucleus around which other peoples are gathered.” In his opinion Russia cannot be a part of Europe, because Russia is Europe, too, but a different alternative Europe descended from the Eastern Roman Empire of Byzantium, while modern Western Europe comes from the Western Roman Empire...I working on a write up about the effects of such moves by Putin on Europe, including a new Arms race, NATO's wake from current slumber (may expand more),how it affects the Iranian Nuke negotiation, Syria etc. I remember Jakaswanga opining that it is not the cold war (the cold war was over). Yes, but relations between the west and Russia have never been this frosty since the cold war... But before then, here is the link on the article about Putin's dream of "EMPIRE"www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/23/putin-s-dream-of-empire-doesn-t-stop-at-crimea-or-even-ukraine.html
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Post by omundu on Mar 24, 2014 10:02:00 GMT 3
NowayHaha, This is a key-note speech. And that is an understatement. Putin’s clarity is freshening, and I wish the Russian president were equally clear-headed in matters of free and fair elections within Russia. That he would put in place matters reflecting the peoples will, as the Crimean referendum he waxes lyrical about. Alas, within Mother Russia herself, Putin is blind to the corruption of his oligarchs; he runs a crony capitalism system which, for instance, corruptly led to the Sochi Winter Olympic village overshoot its construction costs like our own SGR is gonna do. Businesses are arbitrarily confiscated and awarded to regime loyalists in Russia, and there is a consistent effort to shut down independent think tanks. On this internal rot, Putin does not seem to be as level headed, as strategically versatile, as historically versed as he is on the Crimea and the Ukraine. For instance, if the Russians of the Crimea are by a legitimate referendum entitled to exit the republic of Ukraine, would he allow a similar event for say, Dagistan or Chechyna in the caucus ranges, to decide the separatist imbroglio thereat? Putin lauds a democratic process in Crimea, but would not dare a similar one in his own ethnic tinderbox regions! Ha! Dear Vladimir! the Peoples will!? It is like the word culture which reputedly always made the NAZI propaganda chieftain Joseph Goebbels reach for his gun in reflex!However, on the Crimea as an international crisis pitting the West against Russia, Putin’s lucidity, grasp of issues, tenacity in strategic interpretation and historical parallel, is exemplary and highly rational. In fact after a double read, I am convinced there could be another game being played from Washington. A neocon game. Take a look at this statement by Putin … 1. The Americans are not stupid, they are not naive neither. They too are a calculating lot, and their historical, sustained world hegemony has not been by luck. Rather by the ruthless, cynical and Machiavellian manipulation of situations, countries, men and circumstances. Backed by famous think-tanks and great wolves like Kissingerand Berzinski. So it looks to me plain and clear, that the Americans understood they were provoking Russia in the Ukraine, and given Putin has been around for some time, in which case they have a good psychological profile of him, the 'Obama troupe' KNEW IN ADVANCE what a Putin pushed to the wall would likely do. The crisis in the Ukraine is foreign-policy pre-manufactured, pre-programmed to elicit an EXPECTED Russian reaction, and, no quarter given, precipitate a cooked INTERNATIONAL CRISIS. ---The CIA was not born ;)yesterday as they say in Afrika. But Washington too has many competing think-tanks, so it is a question of which think-tank won the toss over the Ukraine and enacted its agenda. This is definitely the neocons as I read it, the men for whom the cold-war never ended, and if it did, regretfully. POSSIBLE MOTIVES WHY RUSSIA MUST BE PROVOKED INTO BELLIGERENCE?--Secure the relevance of NATO,a powerful American instrument of dominance over Europe and the neighbourhood. --Keep the EU in its place (thwart her growing economic entanglement with Russia which increasingly has been leading to the unthinkability of war in Europe). If both the North Stream and South Stream super gas pipelines are fully operational, it is an iron lock of mutual interests between East and West Europe. Such an investment dictates conflict resolutions outside War mongering, and let war-mongering be NATO’s brief. And so we have the crazy idea that Europe will get its gas from the USA, and boycott Russian gas next door, to reduce dependence on Russia, the enemy. With the USA-NSA spying on her all the way to her bedroom, a certain European leader vidibly reddened when asked if she thought exchanging dependence on Russia for dependence on the Americans was the smartest option! ---The EU politicians are not so hot on military expenditure, and the EU population even less. The American new super-modern fighter jet, dubbed the JSF – Joint Strike Fighter, is dying at prototype level, coz the damn Europeans, hit by the Euro crisis, found other more useful ways to spend their money than bankroll the American defence industry. This outrage must be reversed, and fishing out the Russian scarecrow once more, will do. --- Ivan the hungry bear has swallowed the Crimea today, tomorrow East Ukraine, then Tallin, Vilnius and Riga of the Baltics, as they move to re-unite Kaliningrad with the motherland, and directly intimidate Warzawa (Warsaw in Poland). ---Western Europe! Wake up and take up battle stations! I think that is the neo-con game. NB: I did a little intellectual intel, inspired by B6K’s roguish quip, that Viktoria –fwack the EU— Nuland is Robert Kagan’s playmate, or bed plaything. Professor Robert is of the Brookings institute, a historian and a pundit for IMPERIAL AMERICA. And he is mostly famous for …. Project for the New American Century, PNACNow, since I was not born yesterday on matters that happen between men and women in bed, methinks Mr&Mrs Kagan like any normal couple, apart from steamily feasting on one another's under sides, do a lot of policy back and forths as diplomatic Otishotish would say, and in the Ukraine, Mr Kagan with his Reaganite hangover of military strength and moral clarity (which Putin has extensively demolished in his speech) has a (dick) head start on the slow-witted John Kerry.Robert Kagan–America should embrace empire, is running on the inside line and setting the pace! Kerry is off the race. Obama is known to be a cautious operator when he is not sure of a clear win, and since he learnt recently from his red line in Syria, of the limits of American power, it is most unlikely he would have okayed a poke in the eye of Vladimir Putin. Secondly, with his reckless drone assassinations controversial even within American legal requirements, Obama recognises he operates in MORAL GREY AREAS, and therefore Kagan’s MORAL CLARITY is bullsh!t. And thinking of Dubya’s lies over Iraqi WMD’s, the issue of morality does not arise anymore in foreign policy. So it could not have been Obama who Viktoria –fwack the EU—Nuland was representing with her reckless Ukraine drive. Yes, B6k, American policy in the Ukraine is a Kagan family affair! And you can quote me on that! Putin said Hilary Clinton did not have a head, but has a reasonable figure. I wonder what he says of Viktoria Nuland? A useless diplomat but definitely a hot screw?!oops, Ouru should give me such a clear vision on Migingo, like Putin unveiled for his fellow Russians on the Crimea! Nowayhaha, you did well to give us this: it is a historic document! Jakaswanga Very enlightening. I had not seen the games being played in Eastern Europe from this angle. Good read.
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Post by omundu on Mar 24, 2014 9:50:03 GMT 3
B6k The existence of the far right in the maidan situation is not disputed. However we have to realize that the maidan situation is not solely owned by the far right as the pro-invasion people are won't to propagate. We should know that the revolution is a kaleidoscope of many Ukrainians from different backgrounds. There also exists a parliament that was there even before this situation. The Russians are justifying the Crimean invasion based on the propaganda of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine forgetting the fact that there exists a worse oppressive regime in Moscow who even have very discriminatory laws against minorities including an anti immigration law (with camps for illegal aliens) proposed by their parliament last year. I have seen that video and was also not happy about the thuggish behavior of that goon. But apart from that, what else have the far right done wrong during the uprising ? How about we wait for the coming Ukrainian elections and see if the citizens will vote them in. B6k, while you are at it, could you also post videos and pictures of the pro-Russian goons and militia beating up others in the streets with different voices. They even beat up journalists and took their cameras. In my opinion, the Pro-Russian militias have behaved in a worse way than the right wing elements. Here below, an article from a reknown Ukrainian explaining the right wing element in the maidan situation. jordanrussiacenter.org/news/dangerous-liaisons-ukraine-western-slavists/A question to you b6k. What exactly do you propose happens to the right wing elements; should the Ukrainian constitution deny them the right to participate in any democratic process ? Apart from the video posted, have they done anything unconstitutional ? Does their prescence in maidan justify Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea ? Apart from the thuggish behaviour of 3 rogue Svoboda MP's is there anything else the far right have done during the uprising you ask? Sure there is. How about the killing of both protestors and policemen by their snipers, an act that was blamed on Yanukovich leading to his ousting? The Estonian foreign minister has since confirmed that: (1) the shootings were done by opposition supporters, and that (2) in spite of noises by Ashton that investigations should be carried out (check out the tapped phone calls in the first page of this thread) the interim government is not interested in following up investigations to get to the bottom of the atrocities. Where is your moral outrage for that injustice? Omundu, you earlier claimed you could not understand why Putin would do what he has done in Crimea. I've played the devil's advocate and given you enough historical background that can justify (in Russian thinking) stern action from Moscow. Neither side can claim to be right, a position you appeared to accept in one post, before you clawed it back and gave the western yarn about Russian bogeymen. There's good and evil on all sides. I would characterize the murder of civilians protesting for your cause along with policemen who were out there doing their jobs as unconstitutional. In the eyes of your average Russian, the referendum held by the people of Crimea is all they need to legally justify the occupation. At least they have a lot more legal justification to show for their efforts than the illegally constituted interim government in Kiev that overthrew a legally elected government which was already on its way out, au sio? The long and the short of it is Russia has taken the loss of satellite Warsaw Pact states with a lot more restraint than they are given credit for. However, anytime real estate losses have involved a region that was formerly within the USSR there has been war. We have seen this in Chechnya and Georgia in the past. Let's see how it plays out in the Ukraine... hehehehe. I try to sieve out propaganda from proper news. Digest that phone call and check out the Estonian Government's explanation of the call. It is actually a leaked phonecall discussing a conspiracy theory that blamed the killings on the opposition. The phonecall says "i have been told". On further reading, we discover that she had been told by a certain Olga, a Doctor in Kiev who is basing it on the fact that some people came into the hospital with bullet wounds and the bullets happen to come from the same type of gun. Now how that is an informed judgement, i dont know. To me, further investigations need to be done to establish it and not judge it based on a doctor. The Estonian Government confirmed that she was giving an interview based on what she had heard in Kiev and thats it.The Estonian Government denied that she had viewed the Opposition as being involved. I have followed the entire thing and yes,both sides are not angels. The diposed president intended to injure and kill protestors www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/20/ukraine-protesters-force-riot-police-independence-square-kiev-battle-controlwww.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2563609/Truce-Kiev-collapses-hours-official-day-mourning-28-people-killed-protests-erupts-violence.htmlThe police were armed with combat weapons as evidenced by the interview given by the former interior minister. I have read both sides of the story. But as i have said it before, non of the reasons given by Russia justify an annexation. Those are reasons that have been used before to devastating effect. I guess thats where we differ in our views. I have moved on to discussing the future effects of such an act by Mother Russia. Its about propaganda and the Russians have been heavy on that lately.including banning any other form of news other than Russian state TV in Crimea. In Russia they even say that there were refugee camps of ethnic Russians. hehehehe, what a laugh. This current Neo-Nazi story has been blown out of proportion (as i explained before and gave a link) and the real atrocities have been committed by the Russians in Crimea (including atrocities against ethnic tartars).
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Post by omundu on Mar 24, 2014 0:27:16 GMT 3
Bwana Kichwa. I am not one to stoop to childish your man vs my man games akin to the primary school "my dad is stronger than your dad" arguments to assuage juvenile egos. It is beneath me. I leave such games to the likes of Miguna and you. I was merely stating a fact that justify the mere fact of the existence of Migunas continued public display of fury like a woman scorned and the existence of this thread proves that you are actually wrong in your analogy that one Raila is finished. If that's your intention, then perhaps state your opinions without being condescendingly personal to others who are also on this forum trying to put opinions and points across, and which they equally, as you do, feel convicted about. Or otherwise said, don't start no sh*t and there will be none. Say your piece and allow others to do the same without attacking them. It's a free forum last time I checked. But if you choose to go the attack route, then don't come back wailing about stooping to whatever levels, childishness or whatever. Be ready to receive what you are also dishing out. 2-way street. That comment of yours comes across as something that should be directed at Migunas constant attack of a character evidenced by his articles. I am glad you get my point now. Anyways, opinion, you say. This is my factual opinion on Migunas article and your statement that Raila is Kaput politically. It is a wrong opinion not based on fact. There exists no factual basis for yours and mugunas statement. Not even an opinion poll to justify you chaps. Raila has his failings. He is trapped in some Moi era antics that I have called him out on. But Kaput ? Very laughable. So I suggest you guys relax enzymes, or the soul. Life is too short and you don't want to waste your energy with too much "scorned" bile focussed on one person. Its funny how people support and applaud an attack on an individuals character yet can't handle an attack on their own flaws invoking the name of Jukwaa as a site that is above that. I repeat. Very amusing.
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Post by omundu on Mar 23, 2014 22:06:24 GMT 3
B6k The existence of the far right in the maidan situation is not disputed. However we have to realize that the maidan situation is not solely owned by the far right as the pro-invasion people are won't to propagate. We should know that the revolution is a kaleidoscope of many Ukrainians from different backgrounds. There also exists a parliament that was there even before this situation. The Russians are justifying the Crimean invasion based on the propaganda of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine forgetting the fact that there exists a worse oppressive regime in Moscow who even have very discriminatory laws against minorities including an anti immigration law (with camps for illegal aliens) proposed by their parliament last year. I have seen that video and was also not happy about the thuggish behavior of that goon. But apart from that, what else have the far right done wrong during the uprising ? How about we wait for the coming Ukrainian elections and see if the citizens will vote them in. B6k, while you are at it, could you also post videos and pictures of the pro-Russian goons and militia beating up others in the streets with different voices. They even beat up journalists and took their cameras. In my opinion, the Pro-Russian militias have behaved in a worse way than the right wing elements. Here below, an article from a reknown Ukrainian explaining the right wing element in the maidan situation. jordanrussiacenter.org/news/dangerous-liaisons-ukraine-western-slavists/A question to you b6k. What exactly do you propose happens to the right wing elements; should the Ukrainian constitution deny them the right to participate in any democratic process ? Apart from the video posted, have they done anything unconstitutional ? Does their prescence in maidan justify Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea ?
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Post by omundu on Mar 23, 2014 21:30:04 GMT 3
Bwana Kichwa.
I am not one to stoop to childish your man vs my man games akin to the primary school "my dad is stronger than your dad" arguments to assuage juvenile egos. It is beneath me. I leave such games to the likes of Miguna and you.
I was merely stating a fact that just the mere fact of the existence of Migunas continued public display of fury like a woman scorned and the existence of this thread proves that you are actually wrong in your analogy that one Raila is finished.
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Post by omundu on Mar 20, 2014 22:32:00 GMT 3
It was easy to sense a demise of Raila's political career vis-a-vis his quest for the country's top leadership, once Uhuruto teamed up and formed the current government. What many never saw coming though, was the current free-fall and self-implosion that we have slowly and systematically witnessed regarding the man and on the same subject. Even people (quite a number at that) I know with no certain strong political convictions vis-a-vis Kenyan politics, have been shaking their heads at Raila lately...the kind of head-shake that expresses some form of disgust and pretty much communicates the words "kaput", "done", and even other words that I don't wish to print here. It's all actually a bit of a shocker to watch. Love him or hate him, and whether a bitter Raila ex-comrade or not, Miguna's narration above is actually apt. Bkichwa. I am scratching my head trying to figure out what your name means. But anyways, politics is fluid and that's why I try, hard as it may be, to abort a dispensation from personality. Jesus died more that 2000 years ago but christianity survives. I hope you get my drift. If you don't, then let me break it down for you. I will only believe the nonsense the likes of Miguna, Mwalimu and you spew when you actually move on and stop talking about Raila and let him rest in peace considering that he is "kaput" politically. Why flog a dead horse ? Let it stay dead. You may not realize it but it is the likes of you's that keep him relevant. You do his work for him. It is actually quite hilarious reading some of the comments. Lol
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Post by omundu on Mar 20, 2014 17:16:32 GMT 3
Fellaz, it is a situation where everyone is wrong. I will reiterate by saying that i have always maintained that the only situation where a foreign army should invade another is when lives are being lost and all other ways of dealing with a situation are unavailable. I wouldn't have minded if the US Army went into Rwanda during the genocide. The world came together during the two great wars to stop an Evil. I will be with you shortly B6k but before that we first have to realize that this Crimean situation is very different from Iraq, Syria, Libya and other examples from recent History. This is ANNEXATION. There is going in Iraq style with your Army but not declaring it part of your territory and coming out a couple of years later (not that i am condoning the acts) and America has many examples of that including not so covert ones like Grenada. Then there is the eighteenth century style of going in, capturing a territory and declaring it yours. That is a totally different ball game that does not belong to our "twentieth century style of imperialism". We still have to appreciate History and how at least Imperialism has "evolved" into spheres of influence in terms of economics and covertly propping up a stooge in power. I am not condoning either. And then the reasons given to us: B6k, i have read the article several times, i have also seen Putin's reasons in his speech to parliament. I did that to try understand his frame of mind. Not to accept it as a valid reason.Lets start with the "Crimea was originally part of mother Russia" line: He even fell short of Blaming Nikita Khrushchev for giving Crimea away. It is a very cheeky analogy. As you intimate b6k, Crimea has changed hands several times in the past centuries.Its History covers over 20 Centuries filled with a variety of conquerors; the Cimmerians, Greeks, goths, Huns Khazar's, the Ottoman Empire and even in more recent history, Poland had a stake. He only stated that Ukraine was handed over in 1945 forgetting to add that Russia's claim to the land in recent History started in 1921 as the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. What is a mere twenty years in History ? I am trying to get to the question of precedence. What then happens to the rest of the world order ? Do we all then start claiming a certain territory based on history ? where does the claim based on that end ? what happens to China and Taiwan, Mexico and the Southern States of America? what happens to the quagmire called Africa ? there are Bukusu's in Eastern Uganda you know. Europe is even worse off than us Africans as evidenced by the video below. Does he also,in that line of thinking, lay claim to the Baltics ?www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/video-crimea-just-a-blip-1000-years-of-europes-history-in-three-minutes-30106942.htmlIf Russia is a twentieth century world power (or at least strives to be one) why not meet the west at their game instead of using eighteenth century annexation tactics. I said before that the cold war is over and in as much as many may want to revive it, it is not as easy as it may seem because the two centers of world power during the cold war were at based on Ideology. That was a strong foundation for the east in stiffling western antics. The cold war is over, buried along with the coffin that is communism. The world has changed, we have Russian and Chinese Oligarchs brought about by the embrace of Capitalism. Influence is not about ideology or security but dwells on economic spheres of influence. capitalism in its full naked glory. The game plan has changed and Putin needs to catch up. We/he/the article says that he is reacting to western hands tightening a noose around the neck that is Russia by making its neighbors abandon him and go west but shouldn't he also use the covert machinations that we claim the west is using ? I hope you are getting my gist. Like i said earlier, i had read the article several times to try understand the reasoning but not to agree with the reasoning. In fact the more i read it the more a distant drum in history starts beating. The more it resembles a certain period earlier this century where one crazy dude used very uncannily similar arguments and tactics to lead the world into darkness. I am more with the Hilary Clinton School of thought in this.Previous similar moves like the invasion of Georgia give us a glimpse into the dark mind of a man like Putin and why no matter what valid reasons there may be, It is still historically proven as a dangerous route. Sample this: N/B I am very tempted to start with the Sochi Olympics comparing it to the Hitlers Olympics as a way/avenue of proving supremacy of their people. I am also tempted to digress but after re watching Putin's Nationalistic and "Imperial" speech to his parliament,i wouldn't put it past him. - Just like the way Hitler demolished the treaty of Versailles in his attempt to go back to the pre-WWW borders by invading Austria (was it the Sudetenland?) and Poland, Putin is exhibiting wanton disregard to various existing treaties that were put in place post the cold war with his neighbors including one with Ukraine, the EU and USA (i think they agreed on honoring mutual borders in exchange with Ukraine handing over it's Nuclear weapons) - The article i posted at the start of the thread gives valid reason for Putin's emotional actions.It explains how the west has given Russia the raw end of the stick since the end of the cold war and subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union. I get that Russia has a reason to be mad because of the actions by the west. But does that justify an equally if not more rash reaction by Putin ? Does a wrong justify a worse wrong ? Thats why i think Putin was caught off guard by Ukraine's revolution and reacted without thinking things through. Or did he ? well, the answer may lay with hitler's reaction in the same situation. When his party came to power, Germany was still reeling from the WW1 defeat. The embarrassment and hurt pride brought about by the treaty of Versailles made many Germans identify and "understand" Hitler was coming from when he decided to Invade the Sudetenland annexing it and Poland to follow.In fact he used the same language we are witnessing today of protecting the Native Germans in those annexed regions.- Hitler also thought Chamberlain couldn't stop him. Ring a bell anyone ? - Hitler also wanted to oppose communist Russia's expansion towards Germany's borders and influence. Are the drums getting louder ? I am not trying to spin a conspiracy theory. I am just showing history's lesson that failure to address such actions often lead to increased conflict further down the road.I still believe Putin, unlike Hitler before him, can find other avenues or ways to deal with the situation the west presents him.The route he is using now has been tried before with devastating failure. Moving beyond History, lets look at how Crimea will be managed.It will not be easy and i think the Crimeans will suffer the most. The hard work starts now. Most of Crimean basic services like electricity and water come from mainland Ukraine. It will take very long for major issues like that e.g setting up infrastructure to be solved. An recent example of my arguement would be Ossetia which was liberated from Georgia in 2008 by the Russians using a similar script (challenge to the USA and their encirclement plus a humanitarian effort to protect ethnic Russians). The state of Ossetia's economy is in shambles 3 years down the line. They also took to the streets welcoming the Russian tanks as liberators but they are currently only dependent on meager funds from Russia,and most of the money gets lost along the way with the Oligarchs put up by Putin suddenly driving fancy cars. It wont be easy for the Crimeans and Mother Russia. Crimea itself will be a huge drag on Russia's budget. A situation that may be made worse with impending sanctions. When the music stops, the club may not look as rosy in daylight.
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Post by omundu on Mar 19, 2014 20:07:08 GMT 3
B6k, I get your point but what many are ignoring is the Ukrainians and what they want. I didn't see any proof of the EU sending in an army (without insignias) into Ukraine forcing them to rather take the EU route. Ukraine, through its parliament had already decided to embrace the EU only for the ousted president to backtrack. His ouster was actually the Ukrainians enforcing their will. The EU, obviously with its attendant ills (ask the greeks)offered a better bargain, just like what we do at the butchery when haggling over kilos of meat. But that is now water under the bridge.
My point is actually about what we have been hearing a lot around lately: SOVEREIGNITY. Why shouldn't both parties allow the Ukrainians solve their own issues so long as no mass deaths occur (to me that justifies military intervention)and that word is what Putin has been bandying around a ot these couple of years. What happened ? His mindset is still trapped in the cold war era where such moves were justified ala the cuban crisis. It is a different world lately and no matter what Putin dreams of, Russia is no where near the economic and military might the USSR once was. Even carifonia is a far bigger economy than Russia. Let's not even speak Military. The warsaw pact nations are no more, they are mostly within the EU and NATO's embrace. Ukrainians merely saw how countries like Poland that went west were fairing and decided that they too... But it was their choice and I guess Putin decided to practice the "choices have consequences" mantra as a lesson. Liwe funzo kwenyu na wengineo walio na tabia kama hii. Lol.
But what next for Putin ? Has he played all his cards ? I think he is seriously contemplating eastern Ukraine. Now that is the icing on the cake with all the agricultural and mineral wealth. But his modus operandi is now known. There is nothing more up his sleeve apart from sending in troops. The west... Well, they started with targeted sanctions and there is still a lot of options and room to maneuver for them.
Putin may be barbaric (bush junior) but is he dumb ? I mean, apart from real estate, what other value does Crimea offer ? The black sea without access to the Mediterranean via Turkey (NATO member) is effectively rendered a local lake. The port neither has economic significance with the impending sanctions. No one will dock there when no country recognises Crimea as Russian territory. Infact, apart from Nationalistic pride and improving approval ratings back home, I don't see anything substantial he is gaining from this unless he takes kiev. He is actually losing a lot on the internationa stage. A process that has painstakingly taken over 25 years to build is going up in smoke faster than we can say Crimean river. Did I hear alienation ? Even his BRIC friends havnt publicly congratulated him. Even mugabe hasn't. Says a lot doesn't it ? It can be cold out there.
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Post by omundu on Mar 19, 2014 19:31:38 GMT 3
Wa mayi. My grandmother residing in Matulo hills is not a rocket scientist but I can guarantee you that even she can see that the referendum was a sham. :-)
The referendum was to be announced, organized and directed by Ukraine nd not a foreign power who brought in their military and forced issues at gun point. Polls a few days before the referendum indicated that the crimeans who wanted to embrace mother russia were a mere 43 percent, way below the referendum results. It shows there were many who opposed the whole game but with the russian soldiers and local pro russian militias stiffling any opposing noise, we coud not even see them campaigning. How about the ethnic Tartars who for ages have been anti Russia? They represent a substantial percentage of Crimea. What happened to their votes ?
How about we also check the turnout which stood at about 123 percent of registered voters ? The whitewashing of crimeas land grab was so visible and poorly done. Very barbaric if you ask me.
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Post by omundu on Mar 19, 2014 11:21:18 GMT 3
I wasnt sure whether i should just add this to Jakaswangas thread on the Oligarchs in China or create its own thread but i think it deserves its own thread because what is happening in Eastern Europe has global ramifications. I have been trying to establish what is going on in Putins mind and why he is risking a lot of gains the Soviets have painstakingly achieved on the global scene by an act as thoughtless as annexing the Crimea. But then again there has to be a game plan and a reason behind it all and i think the article below from the washington post best explains the post cold war historical thinking behind his actions www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the-united-states-has-treated-russia-like-a-loser-since-the-cold-war/2014/03/14/b0868882-aa06-11e3-8599-ce7295b6851c_story.htmlJust to reiterate,it is not justifying Putin's action but rather explaining his reasoning/worldview in acting.
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Post by omundu on Mar 19, 2014 1:31:41 GMT 3
OF SUPER OLIGARCHS AND NATIONALIST LEADERS, AND WESTERN SANCTIONSPresident Xi Jinpin of the peoples republc of China surely has a headache. Between the red princelings looting China and stashing their spoils in Western safes, and the communist party hierarchy banging the drum of nationalism in Beijin, who will be the tail who will be the dog when the crunch comes? and who will be wagging who? This headache has been brought about by the current confrontation between Putin’s Russia and the West, over the Ukraine, and specifically the Crimean Peninsular. Sanctions have come to pass, assets frozen, travel bans imposed, bank accounts impounded. We could use the words of the then Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Medvedev, describing the situation in Cyprus at the height of the financial crisis engulfing the EU. That was a long time ago. And I made mention of it in the Eurozone death watch thread. That was the famous T word which did not mean the B word, as the then chairman of the Euro-group, dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Graveflowers, so strenuously sought to nuance. T = Template, B = blueprint. Well, It now turns out that unprecedented private asset grab, was just a dry run foreshadowing the real thing. Today, 17-03-2014, the USA and the EU have imposed sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, confiscating monies and properties worth quite a tidy fortune. And that is just the beginning. If Russia 'annexes' the Crimea in the wake of the 'illegal referendum' whose result was a walkover , then we will witness a grab of national assets unprecedented since the West froze Iranian goods and accounts, following the Islamic revolution of Ayatollah Khomeini. Foreseeing that possibility several years back, Putin had ordered his oligarchs to station the greater part of their wealth in Russia, and, in the last few weeks, there has been a capital flight both ways ---Western businesses fleeing from the Rouble and Russia, and Russia and allies evacuating from the dollar and USA treasury bonds. Here is a hint from the FT: HERE IS SOME PROPGANDA TO STEEL THE MARKET. ---http://insight.rbs.com/articles/ukraine-crisis.html THE Bottom line is there is a TRADE WAR ON. And if you have your money at the enemy’s bank etc, you are not exactly smart. Now, Putin is not having it his way with all his oligarchs. Trade wars, sanctions, asset freezes, visa bans, confiscated secret accounts, billions wiped off stock markets in days, all these things are bad for their way of life. London is their big brothel### and they want to keep it so. So SOME HAVE BEEN VERY ANGRY WITH THE PRIMITIVE PUTIN. They would rather he complied speedily with western demands, capitulated on every point, and let them get on with their jet set high flying lives. If they had their way, there would not single Russian foot soldier in the Krim, no referendum, and no funny business in the Duma [Russian Knesset] about laws to enable Crimea joining mother Russia. --That placenta of a peninsular is better buried in the outskirts of the Ukraine where mad Nikita Kruschev shoved it in 1954! the oligarchs think, as they sip 3-centuries old cognac vintage, costing $1000/tot in London. For the moment Putin seems to have them where he wants them. He runs Russia, and the oligarchs are a tail that wageth not the dog. Xi Jinpin of China, flexing his imperial muscles in the South China sea and inviting the wrath of the American pacific fleet and Okinawa bomber bases in Japan, having his domestic troubles with Tibet and Xinjiang –of the Muslim Uygurs blamed for the recent knife attack on railway passengers in the Chinese town of Kunming — must wonder what an escalation of confrontation with the United States could lead to. www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/world/asia/han-uighur-relations-china.html?_r=0If further tensions (or some other unforeseen events) led to the possibility of sanctions from the West, and the Princelings stood to loose their whole fortunes stashed in secret accounts which no doubt Western Intelligence Services know all about, would these powerful looters not strive to have China bow down and kiss American feet? Would they not seek to impose their self-interest as the interest of the PRC? And would Xijinpin be in a position to checkmate them, or would he be the dog that the tail wagged? ----When the Chinese Emperor capitulated to the British to have them sell opium unchecked to the Chinese, a Hunan poet said: The emperor’s back is bent, and forever it shall be, licking the barbarian’s feet! China is a four legged creature, whose eyes never leave the ground!XiJinpin knows that poem. This is the poem why, when Chairman Mao stood up at Tianamin to proclaim the peoples republic in 1949, his words were: THE CHINESE PEOPLE STAND UP! That is, the era of bent backs licking the barbarian feet, was over. The four legged creature whose eyes never left the ground, now rose and gazed sky wards, with steel in the eye. Well, with the Chinese princelings stashing all their loot in the West, in effect mortgaging themselves, willing hostages with nooses around their necks, who knows what the future holds? Bent backs, straight backs? Xi Jinpin has a headache. China back to the four legged hunchback whose eyes never left the ground? And so Xinjinpin will study Putin and his western-lifestyle addicted oligarchs, learn his lessons and draw his conlusions. We watch ---coz China is building just about everything in Afrika. Her future is our future, definitely in the short-run anyway. Got to know, if she is a rat that shall scamper away at the first hint an American miaw. Good read Jakaswanga. The sanctions begin. Sometimes I wonder what Putin's end game is in this. Crimea is a backwater that offers no real economic or geopolitical gain for Putin. On the contrary, Crimea even gets most of its key services from mainland Ukraine. It is actually more of a drain to mother Russia. Russia's naval fleet in Crimea consists of Soviet era equipment. It doesn't make sense. Putin is actually losing in the gobal geo-political scene. The steady and slow work done in readmiting and gaining economic and political clout in the world stage since the fall of the berlin wall vanish faster than he can pronounce Crimea. An interesting point to note is that China abstained from the recent UNSC vote on the crisis. Could that be saying a lot about your points above ?
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Post by omundu on Mar 6, 2014 19:40:48 GMT 3
I have tried to look for an analogy that best describes what one can deduce from some comments here. The closest I can get is from the military parlance - scorched earth policy. When one has nothing to lose or to be proud of that they decide to raze everything to the ground so that the enemy doesn't get anything. Just like hitler did to the captured eastern europe territory when the red army was advancing.
I am not sure if the above fits as an analogy but in psychology an example would be when one tries to fight their inadequacies or in securities by trying to drag the other down to their level.
I wouldn't mind constructive criticism but some comments from others here are more like a juvenile "I told you so, hhahaaahaa" rant. I believe we are a growing democracy and within our democracy, parties are/should be developing to meet ideals. It won't always be smooth sailing and wrangles would suffice. In this context, judgement should be based on how a parties mechanism tries to deal with the issues that arise. I was at the ANC, mangaung conference (just like ODM's) in late 2012 and believe me, the infighting was worse than what we saw at Kasarani. The anc was split into two camps pitting zuma against montlante.they settled their matters internally and life went on. The MIB did what they did and I believe a process has been initiated to get to the bottom of the matter. Let's await to see the results of the process. What I am thankful for is the fact that dissenting voices (no matter how uncouth some were) were heard and have been inc operated into the process in finding a common ground. Whether we prefer creating more posts or not as per the parties constitution, it was brought to the floor and passed by the delegates. This is unlike our ruling coalition that fights unfairly with dissenting voices, even to the point of issuing threats. The leaders even say mta do ? On matters affecting the country like corruption.
I believe that the kasarani event should be approached from a broader angle instead of throwing the kitchen sink at ODM. It is amazing that when the government fcks up, people say its Uhuru's advisers but on matters ODM they jump at Railas throat.
For once, let's judge ODM and whatever happened in comparison to other national or regional parties. I would like the kamales and B6k's of here jukwaa to at least say. ODM did it wrong based on what TNA did or URP did if they ever did anything. Besides, they are the ruling coalition and should lead by example, shouldn't they ?
Currently, with teething problems of course, I think ODM remains at the forefront regionally in the aspiration to attain democratic ideals. Delegates conference is just one example. We should not castigate out of jealousies or other juvenile intents or to prove a point. We should do it to try change how political parties in kenya operate. And believe me, other parties are still waaayyyy behind.
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Post by omundu on Mar 2, 2014 21:31:53 GMT 3
Namwamba weighs in www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2014/03/namwamba-our-odm-rivals-disrupted-polls/I tend to believe that the ODM leadership knew about the MIB beforehand. Namwamba states that they knew about it and informed the leadership. Nothing happened. I tend to think the reason why the Orengos didn't show up is that they knew it would happen. Now, if Namwambas crew were sure beforehand that MIB would suffice, there is no way the leadership wouldn't have been aware. Complicity ? Miujiza haya. I am begining to believe the notion that ODM is indeed its own worst enemy.
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Post by omundu on Mar 2, 2014 15:38:53 GMT 3
Very embarrassing to ODM this event.
The old order that has had it easy riding on the coat tails of agwambo are in panic mode and are unclothing the emperor.
Let's see how the Leaders react to this in the coming weeks. I hope they learn from it and... Well, we shall see.
However, I still commend ODM for attempting to remain become/remain a real democratic party by holding delegate conference and electing party officials. In fact I think it, together with CCM in Tanzania may be the only parties on this eastern side of the continent that attempts such progress. The rest of the parties are cobbled up towards elections and dissolved right after. Briefcase parties with nothing relevant in between elections.
History teaches us that it won't be easy and with time I hope the creases are ironed out.
But still an embarrassment infront of the gathered international delegates. I would like to see how the internal party structure handles this and punishes (somehow) the perpetrators.
Now that is where the real battle will ensue methinks.
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Post by omundu on Feb 26, 2014 13:32:02 GMT 3
Otishotish, how magnanimous of you to have lifted the self imposed "sanctions" you placed upon the land of your birth once the election results came in. What became of your grand scheme to fund projects anywhere else in the region except KE? Did you see the light right around the time your current country's leaders morphed from choices have consequences to essential contacts only & inevitably to yes we can work with KE? no doubt you will save many lives for which "I'm grateful" as Karim Khan would say to the bench over at the august court. Alas, I am attacking the messenger.. (See my point about "formers" and "residual affection".) I am still not a Kenyan citizen. At the same time, I am nevertheless a Kenyan and an African. For that reason, as well as because of a general interest in humanity, I remain concerned about Kenya and Africa. Starving people are starving people and need help. We here are, as usual, raising money for food, for school fees, for clean water ... In the meantime, over there it's the usual stuff about large-scale theft and corruption and ... In addition to what goes through our government, by way of taxes, we are directly putting in our hard-earned. It would be nice to have some expression of appreciation instead of insolence. And, yes, we do save many lives.
Yes, I have heard this argument. Many times. I can't think of a more stupid one:
First, whether or not there is corruption elsewhere does not solve Kenya's problems. Kenyans keep crying about corruption, and pointing out that it exists elsewhere does not help them. I really shouldn't have to make such an obvious point, but ...
Second, the issue is not whether there is corruption anywhere; we may accept that there is some in every country The issue is the extent to which it affects the everyday lives of most citizen. And I can assure you that the levels of corruption that exist in Kenya are not to be found all over the place.
www.transparency.org/
Corruption in Kenya is finishing Kenya and Kenyans. That is what Kenyans should deal with. Saying "oh, look over there" won't help them. Even your president, while he intends to do nothing about it, seems to realize that it should be a matter of concern, and he has expressed that without telling people "oh, this happens all over the world".
Look, your own president has been going around stating that the place is thoroughly rotten and that the rot starts where he is. Instead of worrying about America, you should start asking your president to do something.
US jails, Enron, ... what exactly does that have to do with the average Kenyan and his or her needs? And if you want to make comparisons with other countries, why not say something about countries that 50 years ago were worse off than Kenyans but today are so much ahead? As with corruption, the ills that afflict Kenya must be acknowledged and dealt with in the Kenyan context. The suffering Kenyans do not suffer any less if they are told that Americans, Europeans, ... also suffer in their own ways. In my view, "it also happens elsewhere" is part of the con. One-third of Kenya's children suffer from malnutrition, many Kenyans suffer from easily-prevented diseases (from a lack of clean water to failure to properly dispose of shit), insecurity, ... , an endless list, and today, here we have corruption. What does any of that have to do with any other country? If you insisting on dragging in other countries, then I suggest that you take, if you can, a much broader view. An example, would be to look at the "human development index", the factors that influence it, and where Kenya is. Start here: hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf Good for you, buddy. I'm not so sure that it's as good for the majority of Kenyans or Africans. Far too many are led into this sort of thing:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Lampedusa_migrant_shipwreck
and that happens, on a smaller scale, all over the time. This is what we have today:
reliefweb.int/report/spain/100-african-migrants-force-way-spains-Melilla
Work in progress? Go look at Asia countries that were not much better off not too long ago. They have actually made some progress. Talk about real progress, not Vison This & That, work-in-progress silliness. Thank you Otish I thought i was the only one who found it strange that someone now uses America to justify the unjustifiable. Basically, what he is saying is, "yes, we know it is wrong, but the fact that america does it, sort of justifies the wrong" Its called 'self justification' which enamates from that unpleasant feeling that sociologists call cognitive dissonance
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Post by omundu on Feb 21, 2014 1:09:40 GMT 3
[/p]
in the footsteps of mr kurtz the colonial lesson from King Leopold was 'Keep your head down, think small, look after yourself'. reading all the above "All I could think about was why the hell did I get involved?".
but the story of the Standard Gauge Railway-Which way Kenya? is too important to make my contributions be subjected to a courtroom drama.
The transformative power of a railway line has already been demonstrated by the current line, its deficiencies notwithstanding. The transport arteries that serve the port of Mombasa’s hinterland; and which form the Northern Corridor; account for over 80 per cent of Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product
www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000103574&story_title=benefits-of-standard-gauge-railway-outweigh-its-cost
so we dwell on Standard Gauge Railway-Which way Kenya? otherwise if you try to study any individual you may make loops around the individual that may or may not dwell on Standard Gauge Railway-Which way Kenya?....and at the end?
[/quote] Podp Like otish says, what really are the benefits and are there clear, distinct empirical studies that informed the conclusion that it will be beneficial? We have many examples of reknown bodies who have produced empirical studies showing the folly that is this venture. You can read the links spread throughout this thread. We havnt seen any such study showing otherwise. To give an example of the oroginal lunatic express and its effect on our gdp is a bit unfair because circumstances are very different now than they were historically. One example, amongst others is for many decades, the railway was the only mode of 'modern' transport opening up the hinterland. Management was way better until muafrika entered the scene. I have also worked for companies where we did projections on projects where we sugar coated the impacts to the economy: thousands of jobs to be created during construction and others during the lifespan of the development etc. Many white elephants exist even in europe like the dome or some olympic villages, all because people glossed over flowered presentations like the article you posted and were lazy to delve further into details. There are other ways we can solve our transport issues and it doesn't have to be fixed on a new railway. Just check how much thika highway cost and calculate how far 300 billion will take us if invested in a proper highway from mombasa to malaba even. Killing several birds with one stone. Now, if you were a banker and you are presented with figures showing that over 80 percent of goods and human cargo from the port use the road network into the hinterland. Then you are told the loan will be used to expand and modify the highway all the way into Uganda with a toll gate here and there. Where would you put your money ? Imagine the impact of that on the economy with faster and safer transport with less money spent on repair of vehicles. It is just an example I am throwing out there.
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Post by omundu on Feb 18, 2014 10:51:45 GMT 3
Today I had some time to kill, so I thought I would understand all this SGR business and how it will help the East African region. I started with the EAC webpages on infrastructure: www.eac.int/infrastructure/index.phpA learned quite a few things. East Africa Railways Master PlanIn 2007, the EAC asked a Canadian consulting company, CPCS Transcom, to help them develop a "master plan" for their railway system. The plan was produced, and you can locate it by following the link above. According to the "Final Report" of the plan, CPCS thinks there is no economic justification for building new standard-gauge railway lines. And they point out that if standard gauge is required, it would be far cheaper to do it on existing railway lines. They note that in 2010, freight traffic in EAC rail was less than half of what it was in 1970 and that the most optimistic growth up to 2030 (a) can be supported by exiting lines and (b) cannot support the conversion to standard gauge. Speed (mentioned by b6k) and axle loads? They point out how those can be accommodated on existing lines up to 2030. An interesting note in some of the CPCS material: " The capacity of the line from Mombasa to Kenya would be over 10 m tonnes per year if average speed could be increased to 50kph." In fact, for the Kenyan case, they argue that optimistic growth up to 2030 will for up to 7.5 millions tons per year and that the existing lines if used properly should be able to handle up to 30 million tons per year. ( Note to b6k: they claim that can be achieved with speeds of 60 kph.) Here are the exact lines from one of their presentation slides (also at the link above): * Yes it would be nice to start with a brand new railway, but there are no interconnection issues.
* The narrow gauge system in South Africa handles over 200 million tonnes per year at world class levels of efficiency.
* Long distance, high speed passenger systems are extremely expensive to operate and will require massive ongoing subsidies.
* For freight, the rehabilitation and investment in the existing system is the most economic option.Japan Also Has A WordApparently some Japanese expert was at hand to give a presentation on his country's experience. His slides have two conclusions. One is on the importance of maintenance, and the other says (reproduced exactly from the link above): * If the existing railway structure (ballast, sleepers, rail tracks, etc.) and the rolling stocks are upgraded, narrow gauge can achieve significantly high transport capacity in East Africa.
* Gauge issue cannot be the single determining factor of transport capacity. OthersI also read a bunch of other stuff elsewhere. On that basis, it would be very interesting to see the figures that Kenya is using for its optimistic venture. Thanks for the links Otish. And also the previous link on how others have easily transformed to standard gauge. I checked on Indias railway system and was amazed at how efficiency in management (always striving for modern management systems)has made them the premier transport system in India and the worlds second largest rail network under one management. This, while still using the colonial inherited rail system similar to ours but tweaking systems here and there, eg computerising at the ports and electronic systems etc. In fact, they only started considering the standard gauge in one or two areas last year. They will do this simply by converting the existing lines to standard gauge and getting modern trains. www.indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/view_section.jsp?lang=0&id=0,1
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Post by omundu on Feb 18, 2014 0:40:10 GMT 3
My humble take on the main problem we need to tackle as kenyans on this cross border transport. But first, a rejoinder to some of Kamale's points:
Yes, the upgraded port may be able to handle 1.4 million by completion as you state but currently, rail transport accounts for a meagre five percent of goods transported from the port. The rest use the road network. The increase in mombasa port handling capacity does not automatically mean the numbers will use the rail network.
The problem is not even the hours to transport cargo or people. RVR actually stated that goods from mombasa to nairobi take between six and eight hours (I think I read it on their website) thanks to their 'improved' efficiency.
The main problem is us kenyans and our lack of foresight and proper management/maintenance systems. Just have a look at the thika highway if you doubt me. The main issue we need to tackle first is the delays and congestion at the port. That won't be curtailed just by throwing money at new facilities.
The reason for the delays and congestion is corruption and further delays at informal stops and checkpoints. Very cumbersome clearance procedures helped in no small part by multi agency demands. There is no streamlined system and the agencies keep shifting blame amongst each other.
Even with a new rail system, we are not guaranteed that the problems will go away nor the investment will pay for itself. That seems to be the gist of Ndii's argument and at least he has come up with something to explain himself. All we need is for the uhuruto crew to come up with a counter argument with numbers proving otherwise so we can poke holes in them the same way we are doing to Ndii's arguments. The onus is not on Ndii. It is on the Government to prove to us common folk. But we are met with the L "Mta do ? " Silence.
Take RVR for example. It is a private entity that (irregardless of its many issues) was mandated to improve rail transport but our network is still carrying only at half yearly capacity. Infact, under them, cargo transport by rail went down from 15 to 3 percent. Doesn't that tell us that we need to look deeper than just splashing money into white elephants and bottomless pockets ? One of the reasons RVR gave for the below par performance was high tariffs by the Government leaving them with little money for infrastructure improvement.
What I am trying to say is there are still a lot of un answered questions about this whole debacle.
My father used to say that if you want to eat, don't eat like the hyena who munches on everything, including bones in one seating, leaving nothing for tomorrow. Eat like the leopard, it carries its food up the tree for safety and eats slowly, leaving some meat on the bones for the next day. You are never sure if the herds will be easy to get the next day.
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Post by omundu on Feb 2, 2014 16:54:41 GMT 3
Omundu mwana wefue, I asked where Director KR Jeremiah Kiang'a was. I went to look for him, and found him right beside engineer Kamau, the cab-sec transport. I want him to tell what he did with the disbursement Uhuru as MoF wired him to revamp the rail. He took the money and went bust, then went off the radar! and here he is again, resurfaced in this SGR thing. I do not like it! www.nation.co.ke/business/China-funds-to-build-high-speed-railway/-/996/1977446/-/view/printVersion/-/3hgabh/-/index.htmlPHOTO | SALATON NJAU The Cabinet Secretary for Transport and Infrastructure, Eng Michael Kamau (left), and Kenya Railways chairman Jeremiah Kianga after a tour of Kenya Railways facilities in Nairobi on September 2, 2013. The minister said plans to build a new railway line from Mombasa to Kisumu were at an advanced stage following the recent trade pact with China. NATION MEDIA GROUP www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-Railways-Sh50bn-in-the-red/-/539546/1864588/-/t6lopvz/-/index.htmlO, the story of railways! I love railways! and rail engineers, men like Brunel of Britain who had no precedents, but developed mouth-watering solutions to the problems, becoming legends of their craft in the process. And engineering becomes a cost-saving device, not a price inflating factor! They are known these people. What worries me Jakaswanga is, how powerful are these people that the duo at the top are soo intent in protecting them ? Why is Uhuru blindly heading to disaster for the sake of these people ? He should take a leaf from Moi. In such situations, no one was indispensable under that regime. And where is our anti corruption watchdog ? Gichangi etc ? Does it go deeper than the few names mentioned ? And what happens when the parliamentary committees dig further and unearth more red herrings ? What if the courts stop the deal ? Does Uhuru then thrash the constitution and goes ahead ? At what cost ? What if parliament refuses to approve the funds as someone stated earlier ? How will the government enact the intended laws to make this project feasible ? It is not black or white as Uhuru may think the situation is. There are more than fifty shades of grey in this shafting. After reading your earlier standard link, I am actually left not supporting the project. A few things from the articles made me change my mind: The chinese dudes were approached for a design, build, operate. They would rake in the profits until they are satisfied before handing it back to wananchi. That was the initial plan. This shows that the project wasn't actually needed. No research was done showing that we desperately need the railway. It was not, and is still not feasible. And that's why several 'reputable' banks washed their hands off it before the chinese came in. And that's why the Government wants to enact laws forcing consumers to use the railway plus an increased levy. They are forcing things that should come naturally in a feasible project. Basically they are using Socialist principles to aid a highly naked capitalist venture. Doesn't that ring bells ? Second: they had initially gone for electric rails, then a double gauge and now it is a single gauge railway (which is exactly what we have currently) there will be nothing extraordinarily different. And for what ? Studies don't show that the existing railway is breaking at the seams with demand for transport is there ? And that's why the most feasible option, as the world bank put it, would be to upgrade the existing line. Even our so called engineers and contractors can 'uproot' (hehehehe) an existing line, smelt and re - engineer the bad sectors, and re-alighn them can't they ? Sometimes all we can do is just look and laugh in bewilderment.
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Post by omundu on Feb 2, 2014 15:30:56 GMT 3
The plot thickens fellas... www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000103682&story_title=fresh-twist-in-rail-saga-as-file-suddenly-goes-missingIt so happens that World bank black listed Chinese Construction company is not a Government entity but happens to have ghost kenyan shareholders. There is a kenyan registration number but the file is mysteriously missing. It also happens that the company, though having a record of civil works, has never laid a rail line, ever, in their history... Uhuru may not be a fan of newspapers, but surely folks, even ray charles could see that this thing stinks to high heaven. Would any of you entrust your money to build a home to a contractor who has never built a home ? www.nation.co.ke/news/Grand-railway-project-to-power-ahead-says-Uhuru/-/1056/2164292/-/d15cxcz/-/index.htmlWhy is Uhuru Kenyatta deliberately being disingenuous? I dare say we all want this railway! I have not heard anybody opposed to the project! ---The problem, and what people are opposed to, is its INFLATED PRICE, its FLAWED tendering process, tts opaque Government to Government sourcing, and the strange case of a single Chinese company doing the feasibility, construction, and fund-sourcing: A to Z. Note that is actually how oil companies work: prospecting, contracting, drilling, transportation, refining, and pump sales. ----But as a Kenyan you do not fund Tullow, they will take all the risks, and aim to run away with all the profit. But Rails? This is a loan we are going to pay: we are going into bondage, and therefore uttermost prudence is required in fine-combing every little clause of the contract. And this scrutiny is what Uhuru Kenyatta pretends he does not understand. He pretends it is sabotage, an attempt to derail the railway project. This project is shrouded is shrouded in so much mystery, so much darkness, it distinctly begins to be a case of bad faith: bad faith from the GOK, bad faith from PORK and DPORK, and bad faith from the Chinese. Railways are simple things these days, and when simple things become this complicated, we know we are being fried. ILLUSTRATION: 1. There is already a 100+ year [DISUSED railway running from Mombasa to Nairobi. For a feasibility study on that traject, you could say, even a first year engineering student in the respective faculty, could just walk along the old track and write the engineering challenges, copying the old British chart from the 1880s. Geography has not changed much between Nairobi and Mombasa this past century. So when Kenyan engineers are banned, by government dictate, from walking along the old railway track, British EAR chart in hand, I know sh!t when I see it. Why therefore is the president being so openly stupid? Is there anybody against this railway really? Is it not that what the rest are against, is raw exploitation by an inflated costing? a scam quotation, and that the project should not be a smokescreen for the grand looting of the Kenyan treasury and taxpayer, which we are now sure it is. These hard questions being asked about the project, is called VIGILANCE! Since a fool and his money are soon parted. And we the Kenyan tax payers are blessed with governments which tend to ride us for fools. Goldenberg, NHIF, NSSF, Anglo-leasing! We know our elite, we know their criminal and immoral greed! I therefore feel very free to question every cent spent on this project!? Could it not have been better spent? Is the president himself corrupted along with the others? [ Come on Uhuru Kenyatta! Files have started disappearing from the registrar’s office! A hand of God you think, Mr President!? What does Kibaki and Raila hide? And former transport minister Kimunya? Since when did he look himself in the mirror, our Amos, and not notice his portrait is the final image of Dorian Gray staring back at Dorian Gray? Wacha upuzi wewe Muigai, what we want is VALUE FOR OUR MONEY! WE WANT TO PREVENT A RIP-OFF! And, along, we want to forge our engineers into a hardier breed. Men and women who can do a bit more than the ABC basics they now engage in: [during the colonial period, the whites said of the blacks: however clever, they will never go past the ability of a five-year old white boy, so there is really no need to build any school above Primary for the natives. That is why independent schools developed in Kikuyuland, so that big brains like Mwai Kibaki could go places, and visionaries like the educationist Odera Akang’o in Luoland emerged, so that big brains like Argwings Kodhek could go places. So when Kenyan engineers are banned from the SGR from the start, I know a colonial parable when I see it: however clever, our engineers will never go beyond a semi-literate Chinese mechanic. Time for independent engineering schools and Uhuru! So that out engineers with big brains can go places! Well, that is kind of a slow process, and may need a mau mau stuff to speed it along. So meanwhile President Muigai is talking like a colonial governor full of arrogance: the railway will go on in its current form, pende usipende! Transparency and accountability is the last thing he wants. ---WHY? NB: You know China itself has got corruption all the way to the top too! So this could be the elites of both countries colluding to rip off the taxpayers of both countries! www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Lay-off-the-railway-Uhuru-tells-cartels/-/1064/2163710/-/138irp8z/-/ Indeed Jakaswanga. Muigai should know that when this thing comes to ahead, it will be him and his cartel against the Nation. There won't be any tyranny of numbers here. The only tyranny of numbers here is the cost. There is a world bank report somewhere on the net, produced to explain why the bank denied funding for the project, deeming it not feasible. You have hinted on one of the reasons they state: why not just even upgrade the underused existing railway. I personally don't see this debacle ending well for the duo at the top. Picture a scene when the chinese together with police come evicting people to make way for the rail line... How will that end ? We only have to page our history books a few pages back to the initial 'lunatic express' chapter where the brits faced attacks from the locals during construction thanks to their elders and seers warning of a long snake slithering through the lands and out of its smoky mouth, shall arise a man of pale skin. Well... Fast forward a century later, the pale skin is now coming from the east and this time, with narrow slits in the place of eyes.
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