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Post by omundu on Feb 2, 2014 12:39:21 GMT 3
The plot thickens fellas... www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000103682&story_title=fresh-twist-in-rail-saga-as-file-suddenly-goes-missingIt so happens that World bank black listed Chinese Construction company is not a Government entity but happens to have ghost kenyan shareholders. There is a kenyan registration number but the file is mysteriously missing. It also happens that the company, though having a record of civil works, has never laid a rail line, ever, in their history... Uhuru may not be a fan of newspapers, but surely folks, even ray charles could see that this thing stinks to high heaven. Would any of you entrust your money to build a home to a contractor who has never built a home ?
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Post by omundu on Jan 28, 2014 20:55:22 GMT 3
"To accommodate the atrocious kickback, the tender was thus inflated by 46 per cent. The quartet shared out a staggering Sh32 billion (with the three state officers each receiving 30 per cent of the cut). A notorious Mombasa wheeler-dealer of Asian descent who brokered the deal took home a cool Sh3.2 billion, according to impeccable sources. By all standards, this is the most expensive bribe in Kenya’s history – far much bigger than the Sh13-billion Goldenberg infamy of the 1990s"."The taxpayer stands to lose a whopping Sh110 billion in inflated pricing, according to railway construction costing made available to this publication by Industry experts. The benchmark in this case is the Addis-Djibouti railway whose construction is to complete in 2015. “The unit cost of Mombasa-Nairobi railway is 49.3 percent higher than the unit cost of the 743km Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway,” said a report by one of the Industry experts working at the Ministry of Transport headquarters, Transcom House"."For legal reasons, this publication will not divulge identity details of the four swindlers of the public purse. However, we cannot hesitate to report that an immediate former Cabinet minister, a senior official in Ministry of Transport, and a top politician are the architects of the ignominious plan. They connived with an infamous Asian fixer who operates within Kenya Ports Authority and has vast business interests at the Coast".www.nairobilawmonthly.com/modules/frontpage/php/fullview_content.php?mode=0&multi=0&type=0&pos=0&limit=0&id=891 Merkeju WIth the Ethiopian cost per kilometre analogy, the folly of the argument is assuming you are comparing oranges with oranges! It is not any different to bringing an argument that the cost per kilometre in constructing the road from Nairobi to Naivasha is the same as that of constructing the road from Kitengela to Namanga. The cost will be the same if all things are equal....but are they? it is actually like comparing Oranges to Oranges Kamale. The only difference is in how the Orange is wrapped. The taste eventually remains the same. Let's use a housing analogy to better understand this: In residential construction, a quantity surveyor can give an initial estimate at the begining of a project (once the draft design is finished) by quoting a standard price per square metre. The quotes are grouped into low end, medium end and high end rates, depending on what quality finishes the client wants. The 'unseen items' are grouped as preliminaries as opposed to items because the designs havnt reached an advanced stage to be measured for costing. once the drawings are complete, the qs measures the remaining items for a more comprehensive BOQ. Note that the final BOQ is very rarely off by more than ten percent of the preliminary BOQ. The same analogy is normally applied in civil engineering (like our railway) where they do prelims and group the costing under roughly the three groups I mentioned above. Now, here is where the story starts; our current railway can be grouped as a low end. What is being proposed, together with the Ethiopian one are grouped together as medium end (I am using laymans terms here). The speed trains in Europe and Asia could be grouped as top notch. So the prices between, say, the Ethiopian and the Kenyan one should be within an acceptable range. The differences should come from a few basic facts which I will explain below to show why the Ethiopian one should be more expensive: - Terrain. I have done a rough comparison between the Kenyan route (existing) and the proposed Ethiopian one (someone can confirm by doing a more detailed study) and our terrain is more level compared to the mountain ranges encountered with the Ethiopian line. Ours mostly passes through plains. Anyone who has used the existing train could attest to that. However, terrain (earthworks,storm water reticulation etc) normally accounts for about fifteen percent of the total project cost. So why is ours double ? The Ethiopian one should actually be more, shouldn't it. - technical ability: kenya has a better blue collar and white collar labour force plus availability of equipment compared to Ethiopia so our costs should be way lower. I don't have to explain how this affects construction costs do I ? - availability of materials: we even export out cement to the greater region. Material is far cheaper here. In addition, importation/transport costs of material in Ethiopia is more expensive than in kenya because they use djibouti while mombasa is a stones throw away for us. Compare their road network from djibouti to our Mombasa road. The above, amongst a few other factors, affect the eventual price. But never by around fifty percent. In my experience, the price ranges are never more than twenty percent. But then again, shouldn't the Ethiopian line be more expensive considering the above ? Standard practice the world over is, the Engineers and qs do the drawings and feasibility study, then invite contractors to a tender. This is a practice that has a history behind it in the construction industry the world over and there is a reason behind it. Contractors will do anything under their power to make more money from a project, and that's why the client needs the professional team as his watchmen: the team ensures that the contractor who gets chosen has submitted a tender that is within a certain parameter in price and quality that the professionals had come up with in their drawings and BOQ's. Now we have the chinese contractor being the judge and executor !!!! Of course he will overprice it so that others can eat. The Government allowed the wolf to care for the sheep. What do we expect!!!! Hahahaha. Wa mayi, in the vilage we would say "kamaya George" or "kamaiva po!!!" (I hope I am correct) Now, the original tender price agreed to by the contractor and client can only change before construction if the client brings about changes. But who authorised those changes ? If the changes are done then, the professional team should redo the drawings and resubmit the for tender. The previous contract automatically gets cancelled. That is where the grey area lies: we still don't know what changes were done and by whom and who authorised the changes, if any, to double the price, were any subsequent feasibilities done and why wasn't the tender re-advaertised. Heck, was it even advertised. Makes your head spin don't it ? And then Mr Kamau further insults our intelligence by saying that one of the reasons the costs increased was because they had to buy land for the railway and a station or two!!!! I call BuLL+***###. Any national railway organization is one of the biggest landowners in any country. We are building the proposed one parallel to the existing one. Any existing railway has a reserve of over 100 metres on both sides from the middle of the rail line, if not more. The reserves are called that for an obvious reason; FUTURE EXPANSION. We can also expand the existing stations or use the land where they sit for new stations. What land exactly are we buying that Ethiopia isn't ? And why exactly, shouldn't we build ours just as Ethiopia is doing theirs ? They also did a feasibility that deemed theirs feasible to service over eighty million people scattered over a country less connected than ours and not including neighbouring countries.
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Post by omundu on Jan 9, 2014 15:21:20 GMT 3
I was wondering the same. I hope they say something, but sometimes,in this environment, you raise your voice and they make sure you never get a Government contract within the borders. Tumbo mbele. What should worry you more is the silence of the official opposition in this matter! The fact that it is being raised by internal rubble rouser's is no excuse for the opposition to remain silent! The biggest problem is that most people making noise do not have all the facts, but you would expect someone to invoke the right to information under the constitution which just shows how lazy we can be as Kenyans! But we can now sit and wait out the EACC and the parliamentary committee to come and give us their respective versions! Very apt Kamale. The official opposition lethargy/complicity ? has been the most disappointing. I have recently become very disillusioned by them. It is only now that we are hearing of the opposition intending to establish a shadow cabinet. Months later, post the elections.
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Post by omundu on Jan 9, 2014 13:23:44 GMT 3
Omundu, If there is no press conference convened by either the chairman or the CEO of the LAPSSET project, starring the chief engineer to answer the questions you have enumerated, then I do not see how we can seriously take ourselves [as a country] seriously! I am beginning to think the chairman of the organisation of Kenyan engineers [Engineers Guild] [if we have such] should weigh in on the technical details and feasibility specifications of some of these claims. I am beginning to find it fishy, the absent voice of the organised Kenyan engineers in the debate! Unless they all abandoned the country and are busy working overseas! I was wondering the same. I hope they say something, but sometimes,in this environment, you raise your voice and they make sure you never get a Government contract within the borders. Tumbo mbele.
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Post by omundu on Jan 9, 2014 12:17:34 GMT 3
The Nation has kept following up on the story. This is what the DP says about the project. Jubilee defends rail cost, contract award President Uhuru Kenyatta with Deputy President William Ruto (2nd right) and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho (right) during the launch of the standard gauge railway line at Changamwe Marshalling yard in Mombasa November 28, 2013. Ruto has defended the award of contract to build the new railway to a state-owned Chinese firm, saying the deal is clean and the government is assured the firm can do it. PHOTO | FILE NATION MEDIA GROUP In Summary • Officials at the Deputy President’s office had questioned the veracity of the deal before the project was commissioned in December 2013 but his latest statements indicate he is fully behind it. • The Chinese firm has experience in the construction of railways and lists, among its projects over the years, the construction of part of the 678.4-kilometre Datong-Xi’an railway in China. ADVERTISEMENT By JOHN NGIRACHU More by this Author Deputy President William Ruto has defended the award of contract to build the new railway to a state-owned Chinese firm, saying the deal is clean and the government is assured the firm can do it. Mr Ruto Wednesday said the politicians who have criticised the award of the job to China Road and Bridge Corporation did not have facts about the project, and were likely to have been influenced by bitter businessmen. Officials at the Deputy President’s office had questioned the veracity of the deal before the project was commissioned in December 2013 but his latest statements indicate he is fully behind it. “We will build the railway because it is a national project. We have done due diligence as a government. We cannot possibly put Sh320 billion on the line without thinking,” he told Citizen TV’s Cheche show. The Jubilee administration’s defence has been that the railway deal was a government-to-government agreement where “the President sat down with the President of China” and therefore not open to competitive tendering. The Chinese firm has experience in the construction of railways and lists, among its projects over the years, the construction of part of the 678.4-kilometre Datong-Xi’an railway in China. Working in more than 45 countries, the company is involved in the construction of roads, bridges, railways, tunnels, airports and ports. It built the Northern and Eastern bypasses in Nairobi and is currently building the Southern Bypass. Mr Ruto said the new railway would have the capacity to increase Kenya’s Gross Development Product by between 1.8 and 2.5 percentage points. “We can take our GDP from five per cent to seven per cent just by making sure that we build the railway and it is working, and that, we intend to do,” he said, noting that the government had set itself the target of ensuring the line from Mombasa to Nairobi was completed by 2017. The Deputy President said the plan was to ensure that the line to Malaba was completed in the next seven years and then onward to Rwanda and South Sudan. Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter has been among the most vocal critics of the railway tender, with Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula alleging that more than Sh400 billion is likely to be lost in the deal. Mr Ruto, however, said Mr Keter did not have the facts “because he was a stooge of somebody.”The Deputy President spoke a day after the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission said it would investigate the tender award after receiving claims that it was improper. It joins the Public Investments and the Transport committees of the National Assembly in looking into the matter. ORIGIN OF THE PROCESS Nominated Senator Beatrice Elachi told the Nation yesterday the inquiries should also involve the former Kenya Railways boss Nduva Muli, now the Transport Principal Secretary, as he would have a good idea about the origin of the process. “The Jubilee Government found this process going on and when PIC starts their job, they should ask when it started, who designed the railway and how they got the contract,” she said. Most complaints have centred on the cost of the railway, with comparisons made with a similar project in Ethiopia. Mr Ruto said the Kenyan line would cost $3.9 million per kilometre compared to $3.8 million in Ethiopia and $5.9 million in Uganda. The cost of the Kenyan one is higher than that in Ethiopia because it includes rolling stock, locomotives, workshops and other components hehehe. Mr DP Ruto takes Kenyans for fools. There is no need to politicize things that dont need politicizing. Mr Keter and Other kenyans are complaining exactly because we dont have all the facts. They should just present all the facts to kenyans so that we scrutinize them instead of assuming. Fact: There is always feasibility studies (including Environmental Impact Assessments) done before a project commences and tenders awarded. In light of this, we are assuming NEMA was involved before the initial Shs 200 billion tender was awarded. Did they then do a turnabout and conduct another environmental impact assessment post tender award that included additions that escalated the cost ? Is that really possible ? And what stage did the public participation in the sensibilities (impact assessments) happen, as is supposed to ? He should give us the facts (both tender documents, if at all there were two) plus other studies so that we have all facts. Tumesoma bwana, we are beyond being talked to like villagers.
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Post by omundu on Jan 7, 2014 21:51:05 GMT 3
I remember my GHC in high school where the text book had the story of the original railway through kenya's heartland. The construction price shot up so much by end of the project with also over 2500 local and imported indians dead, they eventually had to rename it the "lunatic express". Perhaps that could be a befitting name for this current attempt at repeating our colonial masters feat by the time the project is finished. But I digress.
Just a couple of quick ones on Mr Kamau's explanation to the risen bill:
- why doesn't the public have access to the signed contract between the government and the chinese contractor ? It is supposed to be an open document/tender ...
- the signed contract was apparently around 200 billion shillings but now the cost has risen. Was a newer contract signed ? How many contracts exist. Who came up with the latest Bills of quantities and what process was used to approve it ? Was the latest bills part of a new contract that was signed thus making the previous one obsolete ? That's why we need to see the documents, the paper trail people. Munaficha nini ?
- one of your reasons for the escalated costs was that we are going to have a tarmaced road running adjacent to the railway. Is it a service road (single lane) or a public road ? A yes or no answer won't wash. A public road is not feasible considering there is an existing mombasa road highway which is being upgraded or in the pipelines last I checked. It doesn't make sense. If it is a service road, it still won't make sense because where in the world do you find service roads running adjacent to the railway all along its length ? Don't you have them by the train stations or depots only ? Eehh mzee kamau ?
- then you have the nerve to say that we will have a 100 km viaduct along the tsavo stretch. That caught my breadth as if I had been hit in the diaphragm. The longest viaduct in europe is a mere 16 km (oresund bridge-copenhagen to malmo in sweden). How in hell, I thought, are we just throwing money away on a worthless venture such as the 100km viaduct ? Even the new oil monied middle easterners would laugh at the audacity.
Well, I will have you know, Mr Kamau, that the name 'viaducts' originates from the Roman 'aqueducts'. But, the Romans, even at the height of their most ostentatious display of classical architecture, designed and constructed the aqueducts at a height to enable gravity transport water from kilometres away, into their cities. They had to elevate the transport systems to ensure the water doesn't get contaminated or poisoned. The aesthetics, well, the aesthetics just came as an afterthought.
Well, that is until I read further and it was explained that NEMA requested several viaducts as the rail passes through the 140 kilometers of Tsavo.
But still, when my simple mind from Kanduyi ponders further on this explanation, more questions are raised: what parts exactly are these ? How many viaducts are we gonna have ? If the viaducts are not constructed over gorges and valleys then where exactly are they being constructed ? Do you know how many kilometres it will take to slope a railway line upwards over flat land to a desired elevation and then slope it downwards to level ground ? Where do we see that in the world ? (Someone show me a case study please) wouldn't it then be wiser and far cheaper to go round the sensitive areas and perhaps add another fifty kilometers or so ? Very bad engineering if it indeed is viaducts are the option they went for.
Last but definitely not least: if NEMA claims that we need viaducts in certain , perhaps migratory,perhaps red species areas; why is there an existing railway (for the past century) in that area. A railway you claim that the proposed railway will be running adjacent to ? If any effect has occured to the environment along the existing railway, then the effect has reached a plateau phase and the new railway will have negligible effects if any. My point is; what's the difference between one and two railway lines running parallel to each other ?
And we havnt even gone into the costs of procuring the locomotives,wagons and simulator in comparison to the ethiopian costs of similar stuff.
Miujiza haya.
I thus gracefully, end my rant.
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Post by omundu on Jan 4, 2014 11:04:40 GMT 3
Thanx Omundu, it is a pleasure when such clear thinking and authoritative critique is offered in a problem of this magnitude. You make a myriad of valuable points, and I hope I will find time to go upon them all in detail. In this post I discuss just about one. You write: I agree, that construction is a main contributor to GDP; and indeed in fiscal policy, when government expenditure is used to stimulate growth, construction (usually of super projects) is traditionally used as a hot stimulus. Point two of course, is that in the current economic phase wherein a country such as ours finds itself, we are more or less a virgin territory in terms of ‘’fixed assets’’, of which constructions -- [be it an intricate railways network, super energy plants, super dams, mega cities, mammoth industrial plants and machinery]-- are a key components. In short, we are less than industrialised. We lack an industrial scale infrastructure. This means for us, as Kenya, massive projects need not merely be ‘’formulaic fiscal policy’’ to stimulate a growth, Nay, for us, ''construction'' is a PRIMARY NECESSITY. It is fixed asset accumulation, to lay a base for industrialisation. {Uhuru Kenyatta’s vow on his inauguration!} For example we need single carriage highways [uni-directional] just to avoid dying at night in horrific head-on collisions in congested poorly-maintained roads! Now for what you call A DEAD INDUSTRY. ---Why have we failed to nurture local talent? (I guess that will be the 60M$ question, though within it is quite a complex of factors]. The Hoover dam project thrilled me too, in one significant aspect. It was PIONEER. Never had man built a concrete structure on that scale, and that un-chattered [engineering] territory would force new thinking and daring solutions on site: the famous necessity is the mother of all creativity. [No consultants from afar to waste money on!] I also noted that when it was put up for tender, hardly a single engineering company existed in the USA which could pull it off on its own. Therefore the winning bid was a CONSORTIUM, a pooling of resources from six major engineering/construction rackets. Now I have seen Chinese companies build simple bridges and bypasses all over Kenya and Africa, and asked a simple question. (What happened to us? What happened to our senses?)[We are still trapped in a technical skills dependency on the first world as you eloquently put it] Omundu, do you remember the following road-works companies. Mugoya, Kirinyaga, Mauladad&Rose, Hayer, BOT, Ndirangu & Ndirangu, etc etc. Why is it that they were never able to develop further, form a consortium to BE called eg. KENYA ROADS AND BRIDGES and GENERAL CONSTRUCTION COMPANY! , which could then bid for increasingly more demanding projects as the infrastructural skeleton intensified its growth rates!? Same question as why did KMC not develop into a Kenyan monster corporation, seeing the expanding middle class trebled its meat product consumption in the same period KMC was going downhill? And why did Kenya Railways, at a time when elsewhere Railway travel was revolutionised into the major carrier of land-borne goods and passengers, go bankrupt? Omundu, it is in the search for answers to such questions that a silent rage seeps into the hearts of citizen-kind. We know there is no shortage of talent as you say, giving the example of engineer Odongo ----(and you would be surprised at the battery of top-range soft-ware or other engineers at NASA from Africa). We know sir, that the real reason these companies collapse, stunt and wilt, is deliberate sabotage. Sabotage by non other than our fellow citizens. And now here is lapsset [sp?]set to leave us empty handed again even if realised!? Obviously we have structurally designed our vision, to sabotage local grown talent. You have made a shattering point sir. Couldn't have put it better jakaswanga. In addition to the hoover dam, we have examples of how others did it (are doing it) in our own continent: Take the world cup in SA recently; it was a massive infrasctructural undertaking and the local companies had not even ventured into subways like the Gautrain. The Government put up policies that ensured whoever won the bid had a fifty fifty partnership with a local firm. Even with the stadiums and it worked wonders on skills transfer and job creation. Five major construction companies merged to form GROUP FIVE construction. That helped the companies withstand the financial crisis that hit the industry in a major way. They are even bidding or currently working on projects as far as the emirates and australia. It boils down to government policy. Down South Mbeki formulated the OHS and the public works act. I think it is called the expanded public works act/projects where any construction company that partakes in government projects has to partner with a youthful, young company where skills are transferred and jobs are ensured for the youth. The wazunguz may not have liked it but it is doing wonders. I am sure we can learn from the others out there. In my opinion, chairmanship of LAPSSET should not be the issue, it is through programmes like the one I mentioned earlier that the youth can eat, even better than the chairmans salary in ways like supplies of materials, consultancy or construction. So Naomba serikali...
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Post by omundu on Jan 3, 2014 14:14:44 GMT 3
THE GREAT LAPSSET PROJECT AND FRANCIS MUTHAURA AS THE BOARD CHAIRMAN The only point of mitigation will be that it was likely not your decision. But I want to assert that in the appointment of Francis Muthaura, you have missed the historical trend. And an awesome opportunity to make a mark. There was a chance you could see the light, since I have opined that I think you represent the peak of comprador evolution. A peak, in one circumstance, can then collapse back unto itself, a retardation as a reaction to a certain evolutionary dead-end; or, in the second instance, a peak (of a particular consciousness) could instinctively point to a transformation, ie indicate the possible direction of a metamorphosis. Show, even if confusedly, that it is pregnant with the seeds of an improved future. Your appointments to chair the various parastatals, are a retardation. They only bear the tidings of the past, and no seeds for the future. ---But here is the positive side of that going backwards. In walking on slippery mud, or walking on hardened snow, the joke goes, for every step forward, two steps backward. So what to do to make any progress? You turn and head back: One step backward, two steps forward it becomes! Takes time but you certainly are making slow progress, and will reach! That is the good news about the appointment of the dinosaurus, Francis ambassador Muthaura. But what is it that could have been better? 1. The recognition of the historical scale of LAPSSET. The recognition of ts transformative potential, and therefore a project of revolutionary ramifications. An epoch-changing, future-defining endeavour. Exactly like the Uganda railway from Mombasa to Kampala was, establishing the british conquest of East Africa. The IRON-SNAKE of legend. Such a recognition would IMPOSE a different mode of operation. Would change behaviour in very important aspects of PROCUREMENT. Some examples will do. A. HOOVER DAM. [as a case study of competence, dedication, ingenuity and patriotism] www.history.com/topics/herbert-hoover Socially, the 31st president of the USA Herbert Hoover was a reactionary like his racist contemporaries who had not time for black labour, except as the lowest menial, or hottest ho. But as a man of the industrial needs of his country, already as a young secretary of commerce, he felt, saw and knew exactly what his country needed to claim the west totally: a stupendous amount of water –for infinite irrigation, cheap domestic consumption, and industrial use in mega cities; a monstrous power source to power industry and the same mega cities; and a source of national pride. It is a great tribute the dam bears his name. But there is more I found out, studying the history of blackmen who worked at the dam. Hoover insisted on excellence during the project ----the detail [blue-print] he left behind when defeated as prezzo by Roosevelt in 1932 is legendary, and his demands for the work ethic, economy and financial propriety were carried through. The DAM WAS ‘’DELIVERED’’ two years ahead of schedule. [ Those interested in what that {delivered two years ahead of time} means should read the deliveries of other major projects like the Panama canal, the euro-tunnel, or the suez canal, to have an idea of what the extra-punctual delivery of a mega project like the Hoover Dam (occasionally using construction techniques never tried before!) must have meant.]One of the extra-ordinary things, steps, was the calibre of men put in charge of stuff. Chief engineer Frank Crowe for instance. www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/photo-gallery/hoover/The son of a Quaker blacksmith from Iowa had his faults, Hoover, but financial corruption was never one of them. Great projects that would transform nations can fail because the wrong men run them. Uhuru Kenyatta, you are worrying me with your LAPSSET choices. I smell theft. And that is a route to failure. Beware. nb: JUST to take yourself seriously on that parastatal reform, you could have decided on an international head-hunt for the best of the world to chair the epoch-transforming project! [you catch why you are not really the real deal, bwana Muigai?] No metamorphosis in thinking about public service! 2.....[later] Jakaswanga. A point you have made on a political and moral angle. I will try and give a technical angle to the story and eventually, perhaps, try to argue why or how, we are overlooking the real issue here; the impending doom in our development goals in these major "vision twenty something" projects. I am glad we have the hoover dam example that will help in understanding the complexities of our LAPPSET (sp) project. The hoover dam, though, massive, was still simple in a sense that it affected only americans and therefore was simply an engineering project. Even financing was done solely by the government. A project like that requires just a civil engineer as the project manager/head. It is simply just technical engineering feats. Let's have a look at LAPPSET and its intricacies: - several large projects in one. - It is international. - Inter ministerial. - A large chunk of it is proposed on private land (imagine the political complexities involved) - very prone to corruption (you mentioned this) in land, procurement etc. - it involves a very complex and tedious feasibility study (NEMA will be heavily involved) - it is multi agency multi departmental. Even the financing is being done from various international bodies and not just government funds. In light of the above, we need, someone with a vast understanding of Government procurement methods, diplomacy, inter-governmental practices, inter agency practices, latest economic intelligence (there are definitely foreign and local economic saboteurs) etc etc. Not just a professional from the building industry. It also has to be someone with an ear of the president to ensure the project goes through with minimal hiccups. Someone who is an inside man. Mark you, this is currently the largest project on the continent (if you check the construction review magazine). Even the COEGA project in port elizabeth comes a far second. The implications of LAPPSET becoming a white elephant will be very devastating to kenya and the region, forget the railway. It pales in comparison. That's why all international eyes are on us. A glimpse at Muthauras CV shows the versatility of the man. I am not saying that there is no one better in kenya but, where are they ? He has over fourty years in the diplomatic field, public service, dealing with politicians, the ear of the president etc etc. You have dealt with the moral angle... I will leave it at that. LAPPSET has various sectors in the whole, including, but not limited to: - Road networks - Railways. - Pipelines. - Cities. - a port. I believe these sectors, and who runs them is where we need to focus our energies. We need to have good professionals running the hands on the ground technical stuff ensuring that the construction (once site is handed over) goes without a glitch. At the top, we need someone who will fight off or deal with the other "non technical" stuff that is sure bound to surface. Now, therein, lies the problem we seem to be overlooking this past decade. I will give you the greenfield terminal as an example: the consultants are all foreign. They didn't even consider submitting building plans to the municipality before Uhuru did groundbreaking (a practice done world over) and when eventually, the new airport burns in future, we kenyans start running around like headless chicken forgetting that the plans (yes, they include fire drawings) were not approved by Kideros team at the municipality. But I digress. Look at our new road networks, look at the proposed railway. Only foreign consultants and contractors. I can tell you that it is not sustainable; the construction industry is one of the main contributors and indicators of GDP growth in any country but what we have is consultancy money and construction money leaving our shores. Let's say, the railway project cost is one trillion, the consultants are normally paid roughly twenty percent of the project cost and the rest goes to the construction company with roughly ten percent to labour costs (the wanjikus etc who do the hard work) do the math. The arguement that kenya may not have world class professionals in the building industry is hogwash because (thanks to corruption) many have joined the diaspora and are doing wonders, some are even lecturers teaching these people who come to consult in kenya. Some have got big companies doing wonders out there. We marvel at the road network in south africa but very few know that the main engineer doing those roads has been Otieno Odongo and partners. Even the Dam you have provided as a case study jakaswanga, was done by americans, the rebuilding of germany and europe under the marshall plan was done by the europeans with the loan from america. Like I said before, construction is a main contributor to the GDP, we can't have good roads and lappset's in 2030 but a dead industry who won't even be able to maintain the infrastructure, let alone compete with the rest of the world, still trapped in the first world in technical skills and competency. That, to me, is the elephant in the tent.
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Post by omundu on Dec 18, 2013 21:31:58 GMT 3
It has been a weekend of make-do kisses. There was the other great one within CORD, pitting www.nation.co.ke/news/We-are-best-of-friends-say-Raila-and-Kidero/-/1056/2113786/-/14ur1pu/-/index.html the lips of Kidero against those of Raila in Kisumu, but that one for another day. I was watching the foot dance in the Rift Valley: how careful would Uhuru be, not to step of his darling Ruto’s toe, in front of her volatile people? www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Ruto-denies-there-is-rift-in-Jubilee--/-/1064/2113182/-/12cdxsbz/-/index.htmlWith perceptive keenness the concerned wananchi would be watching the choreography for a jarring note that says the marriage is good publicly, but misfiring in the bedroom. How much beef is on the bone, this thank you round? Still I was surprised at the brawny with which the son of Jomo told the Kalenjin to shut up and fuata nyayo zake. It was a masterpiece in subtle arrogance. Ruto is definitely folded in his pocket like a crumpled note awaiting expenditure. But only as the very last resort before the yawing chasm of total insolvency. He said: ten years Ruto will serve me. After his ten compulsory years of servitude under I disagree, I will be minded to hand him his time ---who will be his deputy? We could even shuffle, do a Putin-Medvedev routine! www.capitalfm.co.ke/tv/video/l0ejxm_--- Relax kidogo bwana, ujishomeshe siasa kwanza! hakuna shida! –we have very capable people! Said the self-bemused prezzo] [But Watching the doctors strike and the sackings as ‘’competent response'' of a government system, does not inspire any confidence! Not to mention questionable dealings in the most profound infrastructural project in the pipeline, the SG-Rail] But Wololo! Two decades then will be the tenure! It is just that succession promises in history brings forth the best tales of treachery, skulduggery and fall outs. So Watch this one unfold. Meanwhile Ruto is pinned, captured and contained for ten years of doggish loyalty, eyeing the bone to drop some time. It is now for him Ruto to have the self-delusion, and the accompanying arrogance, to believe that, between him and Uhuru Kenyatta, they can fix the future of Kenya for that long. That they can tie Kenya politics to their will for 20 years. Every other contender his ambitions in the freezer! Every challenge dissipating before the invincible will of Uhuruto. THE FOLLIES OF MEN IN POWER
Listen thee! Illusions your ambitions! The presidency is reserved two decades …. Find other vacancies to consume your energies
Monopoly songs that politicians sing Professing to hold power at their leisure. …. So do men sign their execution warrantsThe follies of men in power indeed. Hopelessly wallowing in its warm embrace. Great men in history have drunk from its poisoned chalice. How easy they fall for it, like ceaser to cleopatras charms. To think they can even tempt fate. Like Hitler and his "thousand year reich"
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Post by omundu on Dec 17, 2013 14:57:26 GMT 3
Indeed kamale. The ANC winning the elections is a given. zuma will be the next president and that is notwithstanding his unpopularity. His astuteness politically stems from the fact that he knows who's hands to batter. He knows that SA does not elect the president. The citizens elect the party. It is the party delegates (numbering 2000 or so) who elect the ANC president in a national conference like the one in mangaung (free state) where he was re-elected. He simply paid off (government contracts) most delegates and also increased (by using the NEC) the Kwa Zulu Natal delegates from around 400 to over 900. The vice president who was running against him couldn't hack it no least in part because of malema supporting it. Malema had come with the "nationalisation" issue which doesn't bode well with the bourgeoisie who make up the NEC and delegates, though he welds a bit of support from the poor unemployed youth. So Zuma knows he is the next president by default because irregardless, the blacks will still pinch their noses and elect the ANC no matter who is at the helm. Reason being, there is no other viable 'black' option; COPE died with a whimper, AGANG is still new and the DA, well, the DA are a white party. EFF (malemas party) may help swing limpopo province away from the ANC. The DA will seems to have western province (cape town) in its grasp and I don't see ANC retaking it. Omundu, You know you are describing a more or less politically bankrupt situation! They will elect a goat, so long the goat is head of the ANC! How right you are Omundu ---The knives are already out to sort out GAUTENG. The national executive council of the party, and the INQUISITOR IN GENERAL, have pinpointed GAUTENG as the supplier of the Mandela memorial poopers or booers. They propose to disband the party executive council in Gauteng, purge and ruin the careers of those dissidents, whose names they already have, since they voted for the anti-Zuma candidate at the caucus which coronated him Mbeki successor. They say it was only Gauteng who ferried party members to the stadium ---specifically to come and boo Zuma and embarass south africa internationally! ---Traitors! Yes, one party states can be that narrow-minded and stale in the head. Kamalet: you and your BBC reporter may have to revise that Malema angle in the booing. The ANC agrees these were official ANC party members pooping in their party! Things are thick Jakaswanga. They are trying to resort to undemocratic measures. The ANC spokesman is going the sycophancy route perfected by many others in Africa before him. But will it work ? They just cant purge members out of the blue. Or can they ? They may still have to go the NEC route etc etc. Plus what reasons will they give for purging them ? exercising their rights to protest. The move may on the contrary work against the ANC and it will eventually end up in court and dragged all the way to the constitutional court, a process likely to take years just like the Malema one. But thats how scared the ANC is. Have a look at the article below. It talks about a research document presented to the ANC (and done by the ANC)which states amongst other things: - That the days of winning two thirds majorities are over - The days of winning gauteng automatically are drawing to a close - The DA percentages look to be rising in Gauteng over time starting from 22% in 2009 to 33% in the 2011 municipal elections and apparently they are now going for 43 percent in the oncoming elections. But what the document fails to show is if the DA gets around 40% and Agang with other smaller parties like cope and eff get to fill up the gap to over fifty percent, they can form a coalition that stops the ANC. So the DA may not yet be an imminent threat but a collection of parties may. www.citypress.co.za/politics/anc-scared-of-losing-gauteng/Make sure you also read the comments that follow the article.
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 22:40:27 GMT 3
Omumdu I was in SA last week when Mandela died and I have worked there a while. I cannot claim to be an authority of the SA politics. The issue of Malema was introduced by the coverage on BBC where an SA Commentator introduced the Malema angle in the booing, and he did explain it well as could explain reasoning why some leaders were cheered and others booed. Now regarding ANC, Zuma is an astute politician who might be difficult to oust and ANC still has a life in SA politics so he could serve another term. ANC also has its Xhosa/Zulu competition and Zuma being a Zulu who are more populous may carry it for him notwithstanding his unpopularity. ....oh and the Chinese VP was booed because of the Dalai Lama issue! Indeed kamale. The ANC winning the elections is a given. zuma will be the next president and that is notwithstanding his unpopularity. His astuteness politically stems from the fact that he knows who's hands to batter. He knows that SA does not elect the president. The citizens elect the party. It is the party delegates (numbering 2000 or so) who elect the ANC president in a national conference like the one in mangaung (free state) where he was re-elected. He simply paid off (government contracts) most delegates and also increased (by using the NEC) the Kwa Zulu Natal delegates from around 400 to over 900. The vice president who was running against him couldn't hack it no least in part because of malema supporting it. Malema had come with the "nationalisation" issue which doesn't bode well with the bourgeoisie who make up the NEC and delegates, though he welds a bit of support from the poor unemployed youth. So Zuma knows he is the next president by default because irregardless, the blacks will still pinch their noses and elect the ANC no matter who is at the helm. Reason being, there is no other viable 'black' option; COPE died with a whimper, AGANG is still new and the DA, well, the DA are a white party. EFF (malemas party) may help swing limpopo province away from the ANC. The DA will seems to have western province (cape town) in its grasp and I don't see ANC retaking it. But where it matters, where the ANC will need a tourniquet will be GAUTENG. That's where the battle royale will take place. They can't afford to lose the bread basket of South Africa and Africa in general but the way things are going... They may just lose it. The gauteng delegates actually voted against zuma at the Mangaung conference. And with DA campaigning against the e-tolls amongst other issues, I think the DA may take it and rule Gauteng along with a conglomeration of other parties. I can also guarantee that the ANC will not attain the two thirds majority it has always enjoyed. So yes, he is astute politically, perhaps even more that the intellectual Mbeki. He knows how to work his way around the tri-partite alliance unlike Mbeki who didn't have time for them. But will the ANC, knowing that the captain is sinking the ship, allow itself to sink with him ? There are many other able bodies like Cyril Ramaphosa. Will they keep him over time or recall him when/if things hit the fan ? Unlike the rest of our continent, the ANC prides itself as a collective decision making organ as opposed to a one man machine. Time will tell I guess.
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 22:39:55 GMT 3
Omumdu I was in SA last week when Mandela died and I have worked there a while. I cannot claim to be an authority of the SA politics. The issue of Malema was introduced by the coverage on BBC where an SA Commentator introduced the Malema angle in the booing, and he did explain it well as could explain reasoning why some leaders were cheered and others booed. Now regarding ANC, Zuma is an astute politician who might be difficult to oust and ANC still has a life in SA politics so he could serve another term. ANC also has its Xhosa/Zulu competition and Zuma being a Zulu who are more populous may carry it for him notwithstanding his unpopularity. ....oh and the Chinese VP was booed because of the Dalai Lama issue! Indeed kamale. The ANC winning the elections is a given. zuma will be the next president and that is notwithstanding his unpopularity. His astuteness politically stems from the fact that he knows who's hands to batter. He knows that SA does not elect the president. The citizens elect the party. It is the party delegates (numbering 2000 or so) who elect the ANC president in a national conference like the one in mangaung (free state) where he was re-elected. He simply paid off (government contracts) most delegates and also increased (by using the NEC) the Kwa Zulu Natal delegates from around 400 to over 900. The vice president who was running against him couldn't hack it no least in part because of malema supporting it. Malema had come with the "nationalisation" issue which doesn't bode well with the bourgeoisie who make up the NEC and delegates, though he welds a bit of support from the poor unemployed youth. So Zuma knows he is the next president by default because irregardless, the blacks will still pinch their noses and elect the ANC no matter who is at the helm. Reason being, there is no other viable 'black' option; COPE died with a whimper, AGANG is still new and the DA, well, the DA are a white party. EFF (malemas party) may help swing limpopo province away from the ANC. The DA will seems to have western province (cape town) in its grasp and I don't see ANC retaking it. But where it matters, where the ANC will need a tourniquet will be GAUTENG. That's where the battle royale will take place. They can't afford to lose the bread basket of South Africa and Africa in general but the way things are going... They may just lose it. The gauteng delegates actually voted against zuma at the Mangaung conference. And with DA campaigning against the e-tolls amongst other issues, I think the DA may take it and rule Gauteng along with a conglomeration of other parties. I can also guarantee that the ANC will not attain the two thirds majority it has always enjoyed. So yes, he is astute politically, perhaps even more that the intellectual Mbeki. He knows how to work his way around the tri-partite alliance unlike Mbeki who didn't have time for them. But will the ANC, knowing that the captain is sinking the ship, allow itself to sink with him ? There are many other able bodies like Cyril Ramaphosa. Will they keep him over time or recall him when/if things hit the fan ? Unlike the rest of our continent, the ANC prides itself as a collective decision making organ as opposed to a one man machine. Time will tell I guess.
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 22:39:44 GMT 3
Omumdu I was in SA last week when Mandela died and I have worked there a while. I cannot claim to be an authority of the SA politics. The issue of Malema was introduced by the coverage on BBC where an SA Commentator introduced the Malema angle in the booing, and he did explain it well as could explain reasoning why some leaders were cheered and others booed. Now regarding ANC, Zuma is an astute politician who might be difficult to oust and ANC still has a life in SA politics so he could serve another term. ANC also has its Xhosa/Zulu competition and Zuma being a Zulu who are more populous may carry it for him notwithstanding his unpopularity. ....oh and the Chinese VP was booed because of the Dalai Lama issue! Indeed kamale. The ANC winning the elections is a given. zuma will be the next president and that is notwithstanding his unpopularity. His astuteness politically stems from the fact that he knows who's hands to batter. He knows that SA does not elect the president. The citizens elect the party. It is the party delegates (numbering 2000 or so) who elect the ANC president in a national conference like the one in mangaung (free state) where he was re-elected. He simply paid off (government contracts) most delegates and also increased (by using the NEC) the Kwa Zulu Natal delegates from around 400 to over 900. The vice president who was running against him couldn't hack it no least in part because of malema supporting it. Malema had come with the "nationalisation" issue which doesn't bode well with the bourgeoisie who make up the NEC and delegates, though he welds a bit of support from the poor unemployed youth. So Zuma knows he is the next president by default because irregardless, the blacks will still pinch their noses and elect the ANC no matter who is at the helm. Reason being, there is no other viable 'black' option; COPE died with a whimper, AGANG is still new and the DA, well, the DA are a white party. EFF (malemas party) may help swing limpopo province away from the ANC. The DA will seems to have western province (cape town) in its grasp and I don't see ANC retaking it. But where it matters, where the ANC will need a tourniquet will be GAUTENG. That's where the battle royale will take place. They can't afford to lose the bread basket of South Africa and Africa in general but the way things are going... They may just lose it. The gauteng delegates actually voted against zuma at the Mangaung conference. And with DA campaigning against the e-tolls amongst other issues, I think the DA may take it and rule Gauteng along with a conglomeration of other parties. I can also guarantee that the ANC will not attain the two thirds majority it has always enjoyed. So yes, he is astute politically, perhaps even more that the intellectual Mbeki. He knows how to work his way around the tri-partite alliance unlike Mbeki who didn't have time for them. But will the ANC, knowing that the captain is sinking the ship, allow itself to sink with him ? There are many other able bodies like Cyril Ramaphosa. Will they keep him over time or recall him when/if things hit the fan ? Unlike the rest of our continent, the ANC prides itself as a collective decision making organ as opposed to a one man machine. Time will tell I guess.
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 22:08:12 GMT 3
B6k The bigger story is that one of Obama and the Danish PM taking what Fox was calling a 'selfie' but the series of the photos has more to read about than the proximity of Uhuru. Look out for Michelle's face and final seating position once Obama went to address the occasion! Kamale, you are referring to this gem of a photo that captured the Danish PM taking a selfie with Barry & Cameron. In fact one British tabloid ran it on the front page with the caption "NO SELFIE RESPECT!"so while some played... ...others mourned... There were other controversial handshakes like this handshake with Cuba's Raul Castro... ...but as the circus left town... ...spare a thought for those who opted to stay home & sign a book at the embassy as when all is said and done, at the end of the day what counts is Uhuru received a warm welcome upon his arrival... ...and sat on the same row as his peer the POTUS before Cameron weaseled his way in for the selfie I came across this article by the photographer who captured the obama selfie moment. He seems to explain the moment and apparently it was blown out of proportion. m.news24.com/channel24/Gossip/News/The-truth-behind-that-Obama-selfie-20131211
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 12:16:22 GMT 3
Ask yourselves why they cheered for Mugabe...
The South africans are still quite a radical lot in presenting their world view. The radical nature of fighting the apartheid movement is still not dead. Not like us meek kenyans. The ANC hasnt presented them with a viable option to get them out of poverty... Not yet Uhuru is a song many have come to re-discover. mandela gave them the freedom to vote and handed over the baton to the others who would give them economic freedom but they are still where they were years ago.
BEE hasnt or is not working, the connected few are raking in billions while the rest of the peviously disadvantaged just watch them drive fancy cars with mamas in the back singing kwaito songs. Indians like the Guptas have taken over running the country; they even use a sensitive place like the waterkloof airbase for their own private events and at whim. I am told that the Guptas even summon ministers to their home to tell them what to do. They influence the hiring and firing of ministers. Major projects still go to large white firms. The old order maintains.
Thats why the disenfranchised majority worship Mugabe for his radical wealth distribution policy. they see no other option. No other choice.
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Post by omundu on Dec 11, 2013 11:58:02 GMT 3
I think we are ignoring the politics that was at play at the FNB stadium. The booing was by a group aligned to Malema and the there were boos and counter-boos depending on the political stand of the people in the stadium. Kamale, that makes perfect sense. Kweli at the end of the day all politics is loco local... Kamale and b6k: On the contrary, i can guarantee that the mainstream black voter is disillusioned with Zuma. With mainstream, i mean, the soweto living, blue collar worker. Times are a changing in South Africa. There is no proof that it was Malema supporters who booed Zuma and it is strange that it is here in Jukwaa that i am first reading this. Even the South African press and the ANC itself has not come up with the Malema line. I will tell you what happened because i was at FNB on that rainy day yesterday. More than three quarters of the stadium was booing and it was not from just one section.It was spread allover the stadium. Now, how Malema can organize the logistics of that in two days while he is in Limpopo strategising for his ongoing corruption case and virtually broke thanks to the tax man, baffles me. The Masses may still vote for the ANC, yes, but they are disillusioned. The past few years under the Zuma leadership has been scandal after scandal. People i have talked to over the past months are very angry, even at the stadium they were saying the may vote for the ANC but that was the perfect place to show their anger. Infront of the world and Obama, they said. When i asked them why not wait for another time and not a funeral, they asked me what time ? where is Zuma when all the scandals break out ? they asked. He is busy hiding somewhere and the peoples voices dont reach him. they have no other avenue to vent. they have tried strikes and toyi toyi only to be shot at by the police like at Marikana. They have gone to the streets to protest the millions spent at Nkandla, only for Zuma to refuse to release the Nkandla report. The ANC under Zuma has become very big headed. It is nothing like it was under Mbeki, and the people are noticing it.I never used to here this anti-president vitriol in the past presidencies the way i am under Zuma. And he is nowhere to guide the country in times of crisis. Imagine a president issuing a statement saying south africa is not africa while commenting on the e-toll saga ? kamale, just chat to even the waitress or guards in one of those Sandton hotels, they will tell you whats going down in the sowetos and alexandras and tembisas of Johannesburg. Ask them what is happenning in the Mamelodis or sohanguves of Pretoria. The youth there are getting very angry. I took a tour with a lawyer friend of mine to one of the mines near Nkandla a couple of months ago. We went to some shebeen to watch a chiefs vs pirates game. the zulus are very proud people but the murmurs from people who live even 100 metres from his new "palace" were not welcoming if you are a zuma fan. They are stil dirt poor without even good acces to drinking water while 250 million rands is spent on a house by the hill. My advice to anyone visiting south africa is to take time off the Sandtons and detour into South Africa mainstream. What you will see will shock you. One of the most unequal societies of this world. You will even be glad you are kenyan because at least kuki umana, you can go back to ushago and farm your two acres of ancestral land. They dont have that in SA. The whites have it and the new black power brokers are doing nothing but eating. (unedited. In a bit of a rush)
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Post by omundu on Nov 28, 2013 21:08:17 GMT 3
Omwenga et-al Now that AU, your likes and the Uhuruto mob have got what they wished for (judging from the shangwes na vigelegeles), i hope that there will be no more shifting of goal posts, no more shuttle diplomacies, no more kenyan politicians wasting our tax money camping at the hague, no more AU extraordinary summits, no more.... I guess you catch my drift. Now that things are hanky dory, i hope we will allow the two suspects to continue carrying their musalaba until they prove themselves innocent or vice versa. And now the two, plus a bunch of other politicians will focus on what we elected them on and not personal issues. And to the AU, i hope that now, they will expend their energies more on what "extraordinary summits" were intended for initially; Solving the unfolding crisis in CAR. Because while the AU was sleeping, France has promised to send in troops to help the situation. Damn these imperialists, they cant even give us time to come up with our own solutions like rwanda and darfur... Damn them. Omundu, Even as we wait on Omwenga's article, let me say this: the struggle continues. What we have achieved so far is only half what we wanted or rather want. I give it to the dynamic duo and their very able FCS Amb. Amina, their diplomatic charm offensive has been superb so far. However, if the ICC is to be seen as a court of justice for all, then these cases ought to be terminated without further ado. This is the next chapter, I hope. ~~ Mwalimumkuu @nyumbakubwa ~~ So basically, the gist of the matter is; so long as the cases continue, you havnt really gotten what you want, this is just break before you continue the same shenanigans coz the same cloud of jailtime still hangs over the two leaders ? Kenya and africa in general will hold its breadth until the two are left alone by the icc ? Let CAR burn for all we care; the only people worthy of the title "africans" or "human" are the two leaders. The rest dead in kenya and the continent are mere subjects undeserving of the above two titles ? Forgive me but I am attempting to understand you guys thought process and what drives you, just like a psychologist would a child with a condition and wondering if maybe he is the one with a mental illness... So bear with me
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Post by omundu on Nov 28, 2013 15:02:08 GMT 3
Omwenga et-al
Now that AU, your likes and the Uhuruto mob have got what they wished for (judging from the shangwes na vigelegeles), i hope that there will be no more shifting of goal posts, no more shuttle diplomacies, no more kenyan politicians wasting our tax money camping at the hague, no more AU extraordinary summits, no more.... I guess you catch my drift.
Now that things are hanky dory, i hope we will allow the two suspects to continue carrying their musalaba until they prove themselves innocent or vice versa. And now the two, plus a bunch of other politicians will focus on what we elected them on and not personal issues.
And to the AU, i hope that now, they will expend their energies more on what "extraordinary summits" were intended for initially; Solving the unfolding crisis in CAR. Because while the AU was sleeping, France has promised to send in troops to help the situation. Damn these imperialists, they cant even give us time to come up with our own solutions like rwanda and darfur... Damn them.
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Post by omundu on Nov 13, 2013 21:59:19 GMT 3
Valid points Oloo.
I think many kenyans take politics like a game of soccer between man u and arsenal with their predictions ati "we will win etc etc" the core issues escape them. Its more about emotional inklings.
I have come across the "jubilee for twenty years" chant. But under close scrutiny, the basis behind the chant is like mist against a hot afternoon sun; it quickly evaporates.
A few points that reinforce your essay:
- isn't jubilee just a loose conglomerate of parties cobbled up weeks before the election without a proper foundation of a manifesto ? With competing interests (key being devolution) how will they last even ten years ? As you state, we are already seeing murmurings of discontent from one side barely a year into the marriage, and that is what is in public. We recently saw a section of jubilee MP's backing my neighbour Wetangula saying that he has been one of the senators championing devolution. And trust me fellas, the jubilee politicians backing wetangula have backing from many of their affiliates. That's why there is no kelele against their move from certain sections of jubilee. At least kanu lasted because what kept the politicians together was ... Eeehhh... 'Baba moi'. Nothing else. And last I checked, uhuruto was not moi of the nineties. Times are a changing.
- is it the tyranny of numbers as Oloo quips ? Do they mean that it is only the two tribes that will rule kenya for the next twenty years ? The should man up and say so then. But again, aside from my previous point, it raises further questions on how it can be achieved on close scrutiny as Oloo has done; the ruto icc factor, murmerings of discontent on sharing of the cake (sounds like a broken record if you ask me). What will hold them together when it seems, one side (mafia) just used the other to maintain the status quo. Will the leopard eventually change its spots ?
- the technicalities of the twenty year storo confuse me; is it uhuru (with ruto as deputy) for ten years, then ruto (with uhuru as deputy) for another ten ? How will that work constitutionally ? And if it is constitutionally possible for a former president to deputise , will uhuru really do it. Oloo mentions that uhuru ran because he could only trust himself to protect his behind from icc. Will he now trust ruto to do that for him ? And that is if ICC is still on their asses by then. They either will be in (as you say) or we will be a pariah state. And if we are a pariah state, will uhuru trust ruto to protect him from arrest ?
If uhuru doesn't deputise ruto, who will they pick amongst the alliance ? Will the other fringe parties in the alliance accept another person from central to be a deputy ?
Most importantly, will Central accept to vote for Ruto as president ?For me, that's the pertinent question, and I am confident the URP mob, and others know the answer to it. I am almost certain there will be another choice they can go for.
As oloo says, kenyan politics is very fluid. The TNA mob have probably (with help from 'master strategist' Ngunyi)started planning for a post ruto (as deputy) era by courting probably the kamba or Luhya. That's why the shenanigans in ukambani (by elections) and currently in wetangula land.
But we should also ask ourselves: is URP sleeping or strategising ? Is CORD sleeping or strategising ? Some of us remember how Ruto had to convince a large swathe of rift valley politicians to go with jubilee over cord pre-elections... We know the reasons why they had to be convinced and it is mostly trust issues... But convinced they were. What convinced them do the reasons remain valid now or five years from now ?
All I can say is, options are getting less for one side.
Or as Oloo intimates in his essay, are they ?
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Post by omundu on Oct 16, 2013 1:04:48 GMT 3
[quote author=" foresight" source="/post/126798/thread" timestamp="1381872306"]Compare No 52 with the Gados strip,,,,[/quote] hamujambo wanajukwaa. Its been a while since I indulged in the forum, my brain is rusty for lack of... Foresight and OtishOtish; I have been of late, pondering about this ICC saga but mostly on a local (kenya) political angle and its future repercussions on the body politic of kenya. Maybe, you guys have discussed it before, so I may need help on a few matters. Anyone will notice the different approaches to the ICC that the orezo and his deputy have taken. Ruto appears meek while uhuru publicly castigates the court. There may be political play at that but I will get to it shortly. First, a question or two: does the kelele Uhuru and kin are making affect how the court perceives him (yaani, high flight risk)? Can bensouda use the kelele's as a reason to go for an arrest warrant ? You remember how ruto's lawyer pleaded with the judges trying to argue that his client is not like bashir and will not escape justice. Isn't Uhuru's and his noisemakers actions actually putting his case at more risk ? How will his lawyer argue against an arrest when in court if the current noise is presented by bensouda as evidence of a high potential for flight risk ? And can a judge at the hague call for an immediate arrest whilst Uhuru is there or does an arrest warrant have to be issued in advance and the suspect notified ? Is it any different with a sealed warrant ? The questions I am asking will inform my theory that ruto is playing a brilliant chess move. He is going out of his way to distance himself from the non cooperating crowd while bidding his time thinking that if anything happens to uhuru while at the hague, he is the next president of kenya. And this not after five or ten years but in less than a month or so. It may also be one of the reasons that the powers that be, may make sure that uhuru does not step into the hague. They got caught offguard in 1978. Not this time round. But I could be wrong.
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Post by omundu on Sept 4, 2013 21:41:34 GMT 3
Jakaswanga. I would however note that the UN has been very toothless where it really matters in this. Infact, apart from Korea, I see no other case study of how the UN has managed to stop/prevent crimes against humanity. in kosovo, the were against intervention and nato (which has decided to sit this one out) intervened unilaterally, in Rwanda, flames were ablaze while the UN was busy withdrawing its troops, in Darfur, china vetoed a UNSC resolution four times, in Libya, NATO took charge. There is an array of case studies during the cold war era. They seem to thrive at humanitarian 'events' post the deed and not what they were initially mandated to do after 'name change' from the league of Nations. miujiza haya. In fact, I think, if Obama fails to intervene, the next logical thing to do would be to sponsor a motion at the UN to strike off the chemical weapons use as a crime against humanity from the UN charter. At least if the world will from henceforth go that chemical weapons route, plus the impending 'chemical arms race' ala Nuclear (where in about five years, we will have developed more potent chemicals through proliferation), let us do it cleanly and legally without beating around the bush. Omundu, You are right when you note the lucklustre nature of the UN during severe crisis. But I can not help noticing the lack of enthusiasm of the American people for yet another intervention in the middle east. As far as I can tell, things really unraveled in Syria when the international community refused to enforce a meeting a roadmap of negotiations which was scheduled long ago for Geneva. Everybody knows why it collapsed: The powers in the region could not agree on a candidate, but went for their own national interests. Obama stood too much aloof then. Now, after the 4 days of bombs, then what? does the slaughter stop? Syria needs a comprehensive plan, but the USA is too busy elsewhere. Even in Egypt they are just spectating. It is that bad! Very true jakaswanga. Obama's admin has been a perfect example of why not to be aloof. I guess its because he came in after bush when the world was really tired of america. I would suggest to anyone interested in the finer details, to watch cnn in the evening. (Happening now). There was a senate hearing yesterday and currently there is a house hearing. Very informative on foreign policy and military intricacies. So far, I think obama has his way . Considering how kerry evaded the question put to him about whether obama will proceed if the congress doesn't approve. He stated that denying the strikes is not an option. He also stated that obama has the constitutional mandate to act without approval. I personally think it will be approved. But let's see. In other news: putin said today that he will approve action if there is sufficient proof. Just watching the debates is an eye opener.
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Post by omundu on Sept 3, 2013 1:33:37 GMT 3
Jakaswanga.
I would however note that the UN has been very toothless where it really matters in this.
Infact, apart from Korea, I see no other case study of how the UN has managed to stop/prevent crimes against humanity.
in kosovo, the were against intervention and nato (which has decided to sit this one out) intervened unilaterally, in Rwanda, flames were ablaze while the UN was busy withdrawing its troops, in Darfur, china vetoed a UNSC resolution four times, in Libya, NATO took charge. There is an array of case studies during the cold war era.
They seem to thrive at humanitarian 'events' post the deed and not what they were initially mandated to do after 'name change' from the league of Nations.
miujiza haya.
In fact, I think, if Obama fails to intervene, the next logical thing to do would be to sponsor a motion at the UN to strike off the chemical weapons use as a crime against humanity from the UN charter.
At least if the world will from henceforth go that chemical weapons route, plus the impending 'chemical arms race' ala Nuclear (where in about five years, we will have developed more potent chemicals through proliferation), let us do it cleanly and legally without beating around the bush.
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Post by omundu on Sept 3, 2013 1:15:46 GMT 3
WHY DID NOT OBAMA, CAMERON AND HOLLANDE HAVE THEIR SYRIAN BLOOD PIE THIS WEEKEND? We may need to understand opposition to the war. David Cameron fumbled in parliament and lost a crucial vote, to have his carte blanche to dish out a few symbolic tomahawks and re-enforce the special relationship with the USA. The British MPs, reflecting the mood of their constituents and the country, balked at another US-led war based on flimsy evidence and US Gun-Ho cowboyishness flying the flag of moral absolution. Hollande of France is a paper tiger. As they say in Germany, he does not even have money to install working toilets in Paris --must be a reference to the Favella-grade Ban Lieus or slums that cordon inner Paris and breed generations of alienated non-whites. Yet he wants to spend money on foreign military adventures for Frances international glory. Whose money really? Angela Merkel, Madame Bailouts, facing an election best served with Germans snoring and not asking awkward questions, has hinted to Olande that she wont be as generous as she was with France in Mali. ---Should bombs start raining on Damascus, the Germans could wake up before the election and ask Mum Angela: is that our money burning over Syria? will our toilets still work tomorrow, or will they be French? Putin has upped the game very dangerously. In a nearly rogue response, he refused to take calls from Obama, sent his warships and submarines to the area on monitoring missions ---bluff yes, but when war starts and armour is in an area, you never know all the risks. We are humans. The idea of strikes without UN resolutions, earlier offered by the UK's David Cameron, seems to have consolidated a coalition at the UN of opposition, terming it a ticket to international lawlessness, the same international moral order which the Western Powers are so fain to uphold by those threatened punitive bomb runs. Now, aks B6K informs us, Obama has decided to consult Congress before he launches his army. It means he has calculated the American people are against the war, and he needs Huge political cover or insurance, to proceed. Should things go wrong, he does not have to carry all the cans. F or a president in his second term who does not need to worry about re-election to tremble that much and loose his nerve, is really a fundamental shift within the INTERNAL power relations of the USA.MORAL EMPTINESS AT THE TOP. Perhaps John Kerry should not have used the term moral obscenity. Because it has stuck, but in unexpected areas. Bradley 'Chelsea' Manning, the wikileaks leaker, aka whistleblower on Iraqi atrocities by the US army, acted on what he termed a sense of moral obligation, that the American people needed to know how their Army was conducting itself in Iraq. The viciousness with which the Obama administration has persecuted him, tortured him, and now incacerated him, branding him the ultimate traitor, has offended the sensibilities of many Americans leading to the FREE BRADLEY MANNING CAMPAIGN, terming him a PRISONER OF CONSCIENCE. And Obama's treatment of him a, yes, MORAL OBSCENITY! Hot in the Heels is also Edward Snowden, another recent whistleblower Obama has pledged to hunt down as if he were Osama bin Ladin. It all points to, as some American pro-Obama liberals whisper, a disturbed moral compass at the center of this administration. Obama the Rogue Heart.Bush 'Dubya' could be dismissed as a Texan idiot or ignoramus too light for the job of POTUS. Obama is different, he is clever and deliberative and coldly merciless. He is thus just evil of choice.Why does not the Western Public Opinion want this war, why do the people desist from their humanitarian duty, refuse the international solidarity implied in giving their politicians the support they need to punish [no job for courts that] the tyrant Assad? I think it is because the lie is too small! [partial intervention ]. And the [alternative] big lie would be laughable: it would have to be a nation building commitment [which was the Iraq and Afghan projects; and now not even mentioned in currently chaotic Libya]. The reason that remains is the so-called CREDIBILITY of the International community. With unemployment and the economic crisis persistent in the West, the public in these countries definitely worry more about a different credibility. Do their politicians have credibile solutions to their home problems? leave alone solving those of 'far countries with people we neither like nor know anything about!' as Chamberlain once put it to do nothing over Germany invading Slovakia. But an empire must draw blood periodically, and Obama is brooding. My gut feeling is, he wants to kill Assad with a single strike, and the CIA has not offered him a 100% kill-hit option. Obama, for all his faults, has a natural steady hand on the kill. He is a genuine cold-blood. Jakaswanga and b6k. As you guys state, obama may have seen the curve ball coming his way and decided to take it to congress. That way, he saves face if congress refutes. He can in future say that he tried to prevent crimes against humanity but congress, well, was the usual congress. He, however, used a caveat by stating that he 'legally' can still order a strike if and when he deems fit without or with congress approval. If congress approves, then he will have played a good political game because over eighty percent of americans polled wanted him to pass through congress. Either way, I guess it is a good decision because the americans get to be convinced, via congressional debate, that it is indeed upto their, and the world's security interests to act. It is interesting to note that the american left for the first time in ages wre against the president's intervention stance and it was the right who were pro it. Just today, obama had a tete a tete with mc cain and another leading repulican who came out of the white house convinced that it was a good move to intervene after seeing detailed intelligence. However, the question of iran came up with one of them stating that it should serve as an example to iran and pyongyang that america won't mince its words and will act if the "red line" is crossed. It is still fifty fifty but I have a feeling that a majority of democrats will vote against and a majority of republicans will vote for. It is prudent to note that the british parliament vote wasn't an explicit no, but a "not yet untill further evidence" in the meantime, the Civil war churns on. Interesting times indeed.
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Post by omundu on Sept 3, 2013 0:52:55 GMT 3
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Post by omundu on Aug 31, 2013 20:10:20 GMT 3
At least b6k states that what is a despot to do when there is a million man march against him.
It takes courage to come out like that and show that for you, it is not about internationally acceptable standards of treating the civilians/democracy. It is about other issues. I commend you for that and also a couple of people who recently have been telling me their option would be to let the syrians go about with killing themselves. No other option, at least no US military intervention. Mark you, these are the same people who kept quiet and were not fazed when atrocities happened in syria these past two years with over 100 000 dying. We went about out business and when asked, many said, I don't care where even syria is. Their interests were only peaked when america decided to go the military route. As proof, just check how idle this thread was until america hinted ... It is actually astounding. if they didn't care what happened in syria, why should we start caring now about the collateral damage from precision strikes ? More on that later, including the fact that I couldn't hide my disbelief when putin mentioned the likely civilian casualties from an american attack of select military target. Eish, the same putin who hasn't raised a voice condemning both sides of the many dead so far or the more than ten other chemical attacks reported previously ? Wow, suddenly, he searches deep within and finds his humanity after all ? Kweli miujiza haya.
B6k, I normally try to look at events like this wholistically and from an historical perspective. And by the way, most revolutions are messy affairs and it takes time for a population to find its feet and order to resume. It is a neccesary sacrifice that they understand , would lead to a better life for them later or their offspring. I would also extend the gratitude you did me and advice you read on past revolutions like perhaps the american or french revolution.
Let's attempt to look at a historical perspective and see what may be forcing obamas hand to prevent the conscience battle that others like clinton went through while reflecting on their legacies:
I do not disparage what other have said here, a death is a death is a. Death, no matter how it is delivered. However, international law can be an ass sometimes, but history teaches us why it should be respected. I am talking about toxic gas weapons (classified as WMD's by the UN) there is a reason why it is there. With over 40 million dead in the two world wars, the world was shocked to discover that there actually is no zenith in the evil that man can visit upon humanity. There was something about the barbarity of gas attacks that is akin to spraying doom to kill coackroaches in your room. The cheapness and effectiveness of such a system scared many. The world reached a resolution that NEVER AGAIN would such a killing system be used again against humanity, it became illegal. They understood that war was neccessary but it had to be sanitized by using conventional weapons (I know, hehehehe, but I said earlier that the law was an ass) and that's why russia and china had confidence several times before, to veto any UNSC resolution on syria. It was a sanitised war before the chemical weapons. The same league of nations, earlier in the century also passed a resolution stating that NEVER again will the world sit and watch mass atrocities committed against humanity. What happened ? More on this later.
I also share the sentiments of others as to why wait for all those dead and only purport to react now. But that line of thought fails to see the intricacies in such developements. During the great war, america and most in the west sat thinking that hitler won't affect them and so fu## it. America only came in way later after many deaths but came in nonetheless. No need saying how the world would be now if they hadn't intervened. The korean war and many other interventions come to mind. I am also aware that other interventions went wrong and were for the wrong reasons, but does that mean they should stop indefinitely ? The fact that they are only acting now (with reasons I will explain) should not be the reason why they shouldn't intervene. How about the balkans ? Wasn't the intervention necessary in retrospect ? Aren't they much better off now ?Ponder on that and the fact that time should be factored before making rash judgements on the arab spring.
If not for intervention, then who gets to decide ? Does america then adopt an isolationist approach and to each, msalaba yake ? With that line of thinking, we shouldn't have looked west when rwanda happened, mali, how about they call off their hunt for kony and bring the boys home ? How about they stop offering kenya and others, military support, especially in our recent incursion into somalia (something not far from the syrian scenario) so should they just pack up and go leaving us be or should they wait for when it hits close to our backyard and only affect you for you to tell them it is now ok to intervene when the AU sits and watches ? Basically, like others have stated, we are special but the arabs are not. For me, the legal and moral foundation for western intervention in syria is not better or worse than it was for kosovo, mali, darfur etc speaking of which, are there any russian or chinese aid agencies in darfur or anywhere else in africa ? Did they at least apologise (even if it is crocodile tears as americans did) for not coming to our aid during the rwandan crisis ? So spare me but, I would be very wary of taking the angle that such people have on syria. Just like you b6k, they don't care or purport to have the damn on the bloodshed or humanitarian crisis in syria and neighbours. That's why you wouldn't see them helping the refugees. It is a problem of the west. Syria has no elephants for ivory.
The fact that the obama administration has a profoundly different approach to foreign policy than the bush administration has not escaped me, contrary to what others say. We have example of this including him trying to get out of iraq and afghanistan, his aversion to military strikes against iran, libya where they were in and out in no time (no boots on the ground) and also the osama operation which was clearheaded and different from invading pakistan for sheltering osama. I will get to the drone strikes later. However, he is still someone I would listen to more in regard to syria as oppossed to the ex kgb putin. With that in mind, let's see what the obama admin is sayingin comparison to what bush said as a pretext of invading iraq: bush lied to us saying there was ample proof that WMD's existed in iraq and they financed alqaeda. The proof we got wasn't ample enough also because saddam hadn't used them on anyone etc etc. In the current situation, anyone can youtube and see that indeed there were indications of chemical attacks, infact, no one is disputing that fact. No one is also disputing the fact that the syrian government is more likely to posses and use the toxic gas, some say israel supplied the rebels but that arguement falls flat in its face when you factor in the effects of that act on israels future security. In a non controlled environment, those weapons to the "al qaeda" fighting assad would easily find its way into the hands of the palestinians, wouldn't it ? John kerry showed us the intelligence that the rockets were fired from assad controlled areas,amongst those killed are about fifty rebel soldiers, communication intercepts showing that the regime soldiers were ordered to wear gas masks before the attacks and the generals reacting in surprise that the casualties were heavier that expected. I ask those seeking evidence, including the east, what more evidence do they need ? What exactly constitutes this evidence that they seek ? And isn't this more evidence than was provided by cheney bush ? So there is no need to cloth the bush and obama regimes in the same clothe. Some would say vested interests like in egypt but I ask, wouldn't it be silly to have vested interests and act on them to protect them ? Is anything wrong with that ? Why did kenya invade somalia if not for vested interests.
How many times have the russians and chinese vetoed more stringent measures at the UNSC ? And most of these measures did not even involve military intervention. They actually gave assad impetus to commit more atrocities by the vetos. They even vetoed a un buffer zone. That's why my angst and cynicism when putin all of a sudden cares about collateral damage.
Many are against it thinking it is in a far off land and not near home, but hold up! It is nearer home that we thought. There is a thing called precedent in granting immunity from impunity to others. And we all know how our african leaders and others are keenly watching to see. It is also a precedent that other terrorist organisations are highly likely to jump on. If assad is using the toxic weapons indiscriminately against his people, who can gain access to those weapons and use them against others ? We know hezbollah fights for assad, we know iran is pro assad, we know irans involvement in terrorism including about a year ago when two iranian agents were caught trying to organise strikes with al shabaab on kenyan soil. What would they do with chemical weapons and imagine how easy it is for them to get it and use it if they know there won't be internatinal retaliation. Something has to hold these despots back. And for those that say it is the rebels who used the chemicals against their own people or some rogue syrian generals, then I would be more afraid because it goes to show that assad is not in control of these things. Imagine then... So basically, we have a brutal regime that has used chemicals on its people several times before and is likely to use it even on a larger scale again if no action is taken. So those who are against america policing the world, imagine the flip side when it is a wild west and to each his own. The objective then, is to dissuade/increase the cost of assad or any other tyrant from using such means in future. I currently see no compelling arguement that non military actions will dissuade further attacks. Some here and elsewhere are saying ati we let the syrians decide for themselves, hehehe, as if assad has any intentions of letting syrians decide anything, even via the ballot. Unless being conquered by a gang of armed thugs constitutes deciding for themselves.
There is a clear legal difference between intentionally targeting civilians/areas with toxic chemical weapons compared with civilian casualties that result from otherwise legitimate military actions, say precision strikes or drones after terrorists. I believe we use the word INTENT. The terms of reference I would opine for the assad acts would be CALLOUS DISREGARD. This is unacceptable even if it was done using conventional weapons so in my opinion, the syrian civil war is teeming with a bookfull of crimes against humanity. I believe security experts term it , using disproportionate force in the war theatre . E.g there is a difference between targeted drone strikes in pakistan against al qaeda elements and collateral damage occurs compared to, say russia in afghanistan and grozny where they indiscriminately levelled towns. Also, gadaffi and assad using bombs on civilians and levelling towns along with the occupants.
All in all, I understand the cynicism from certain quarters. Because of eight years of bush/cheney, we have no desire left to hold foreign leaders accountable for acts that we once readily desired to hold them accountable for. Heck, we even have books written against it as b6k shows. I understand that bush made the world weary of war. Recent history explains that reluctance, older history reminds us of the danger of succumbing to it.
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