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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 17, 2013 11:10:39 GMT 3
It is being reported that Hassan Omar is on his way out of the ODM nomination and is claiming lack of transparency in the nomination process! Now I cannot hide my glee when this charlatan faces the true meaning of politics! Shame all he did for the master has not been rewarded. Those following ICC know what I mean! Yeaaah!!!! Kamale, Truth be said it was hard for Hassan to win the Cord Pary primaries due to his lack of grass-root coordination in comparison with Kajembe . Remember Kajembe has been a councilor before and long serving MP thus has established links especially in his constituency Changamwe or West Coast , however If Omar by any chance either miraculously or through rigging is able to win CORDs primary nomination he will give Balala a run for his money on the partys strength not to mention this is the calculation Balala did where he knew by having Kajembe as his opponent in the upcoming elections it will be an easier battle compared to fighting it out with Shahbal and Joho for governship.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 17, 2013 10:41:47 GMT 3
HOMABAY, KENYA: Chaos has erupted in Homabay town as aspirants on the ODM ticket accuse one of their own for being behind the disappearance of ballot boxes and papers in the area.
Bribery accusations are also being leveled against the same aspirant accused of instigating the violence.
The melee has led to the delay of the party’s primaries in the region and now other aspirants fear their voters may be put off by the chaos.
Police have already been deployed to the area to quell the chaos.
More to follow Reader’s Comments Click here to comment Hide Comments in chronological order (Total 4 comments)
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 17, 2013 10:36:29 GMT 3
standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000075254&story_title=Kenya-Kisia-ditches-ODM-for-FPKKisia ditches ODM for FPK NAIROBI, KENYA: Former town clerk Phillip Kisia has left ODM party where he was contesting for the Governor ticket. Though he is yet to make a formal announcement, sources say he was told to bow out in favor of Dr Evans Kidero. Outgoing Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru had also indicated that she would contest for the ODM ticket, but her fate is unknown as shadows have been cast on her qualifications
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 17, 2013 10:35:35 GMT 3
Party primaries delayed countrywide standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000075255&story_title=Kenya-Party-primaries-delayed-countrywideBy Digital Reporter KENYA: Nomination exercise for various parties in several parts of the country failed kick off smoothly on Thursday morning due to delay in delivery of poll materials. In Homabay, ODM primaries were disrupted as chaos erupted following disappearance of ballot boxes and papers. There was confusion after ballot papers for ODM nominations for Nyando constituency are found in Eldoret Town. In Siaya County, ODM nominations stalled as members waited for IEBC register to be used in voting. ODM and TNA nominations in Nakuru County were delayed as voting materials were yet to arrive at polling stations by 8:30am. Other places where the exercise was delayed include Uasin Gishu County where URP, TNA, ODM, UDF materials were delayed as well as Kiambu County. Most parties were set to conduct the nominations on the same day a situation that led them to find ways of sharing the available centres. Public primary schools countrywide have thus been closed to allow for the party primaries exercise. In Kiembeni Primary School and Ishada grounds in Kisauni County, ODM and TNA parties conducted nominations in the same venue. Meanwhile in Kwale County, voting for Jubilee parties will not take place except in Lunga Lunga as Governor, Senator, parliamentary aspirants are unopposed.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 17, 2013 10:33:28 GMT 3
LIVE: Parties hold primaries 10:14 In Nyeri, a Nation survey shows that TNA is only party holding nominations. No activity involving other parties. 10:11 In Embakasi, ODM nominations kick off at Donholm Primary School but TNA primaries delayed over lack of voting materials. 9:57 Voting yet to kick off in Mombasa, Lamu and Tana River counties. TNA Lamu County nomination officer Anwar ole Tiptip attributes the situation to a delay in the release of the voting material by the party headquarters. “It is not in Lamu only. Other counties too are affected. I have been promised they would be delivered in time and so we are just waiting,” he said at Mpeketoni Farmers Training Centre. 9:53 In Mbooni, Wiper nominations delayed as voting materials yet to be delivered. 9:45 In Makueni County, voting was yet to start at Kaiti, Kilome, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West but voters were waiting patiently to elect their favourite candidates. 9:40 Mr Bett says former Nairobi Town Clerk Philip Kisia had not applied for an ODM ticket to run for Nairobi Governor. “Contrary to the popular belief Mr Kisia did not event apply for the ODM ticket to run for Nairobi Governorship and I was shocked to see his billboards around town but when I checked our records he was not there,” Mr Bett said. 9:36 Hundreds of TNA supporters in Laikipia East holed at polling stations as nomination due to delay in the arrival of materials. Boxes arrive at various polling stations in Nanyuki town at around 9.30 but ballots papers yet to be delivered. 9:34 ODM National Elections Board chairman Franklin Bett says the board is moving to forestall a crisis in the on going party nominations in Homa Bay County where chaos erupted early in the morning. Mr Bett said that the party is investigating claims that a candidate for governor in the County detained the ballot materials at the Homa Bay Police Station delaying the distribution of the materials in the area. elections.nation.co.ke/news/-/1631868/1667754/-/p9eih3z/-/index.html
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 16, 2013 11:33:23 GMT 3
standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000075174&story_title=Kenya-Miguna-to-release-new-book-in-FebruaryMiguna to release new book in February By Digital Reporter Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's adviser on coalition affairs Miguna Miguna will release a new book on February 16. Miguna will launch the book titled Kidneys for the King: De-forming the Status Quo in Kenya a few days before the March 4 general elections at the Panafric Hotel in Nairobi. According to Miguna, the 300-pages book that will be sold for Sh2,000, will give an in depth analysis on presidential aspirants and their track records both in private and public service. He said like his first book Peeling Back the Mask, the book will give detailed accounts based on personal observations, experiences, discussions and analysis of past and current political situation in Kenya. The book, according to Miguna, will answer questions on whether the presidential aspirants are reformers or not. In July last year, Miguna stirred controversy when he launched the book Peeling Back the Mask. The book was received with mixed reactions with Miguna being accused of soiling Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s name.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 15, 2013 15:02:27 GMT 3
Cord seems will not be ready to accept election defeat if going by the events of the last few days - Skewed opinion polls - Raila claims he was ready to be sworn in as a president after an election loss if it wasnt for a day he took off to think of the consequences of his actions
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 15, 2013 13:54:11 GMT 3
Kamalet, What Raila said is within common knowledge. Just delve into Jukwaa archives, but I had rather we dont open a Pandoras box by wanting to apportion treason charges on some people. I saw grown up men wail uncontrollably after Kibaki was sworn in. It is an event that some people would quickly want to forget. It will forever remain a scar in Kibaki presidency despite efforts being made to portray him as the best that Kenya will ever have. Mangai You are being clever by a half! I was in Jukwaa 5 years before you joined it so I can tell you that I have seen very many threads and posted in also very many. Simple question - do you know the judge that was willing to swear in Raila??? Kamale, This is a man who said he handed over Kibaki the presidency in 2002 by saying Kibaki Tosha , well he has a little political following in his Nyanza backyard but that definitely does not translate to the millions of votes Kibaki was voted in as clearly confirmed when he tried to tosha Khalwales opponent in the just concluded Ikolomani by election where his toshad candidate pathetically lost. This is a man who is seeking the leadership of the country but a reckless talker . It is well known that 2 days cant pass without him giving out a dangerous talk .This is an example of one .It is this type of utterances that led the country to the 2007 post election violence and for that we cannot risk electing him a president of Kenya not this time not in 2018 . Cant wait for March 04 election so that we send him to political retirement , I hope this time around he will accept defeat as advised by the former Zambian president Banda.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 14, 2013 23:59:38 GMT 3
www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-89629/opinion-polls-fooling-some-people-all-timeOpinion polls: Fooling some of the people all of the time It was the American novelist Mark Twain who once wrote “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics”. And Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States, once said: “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time”. There are messages and lessons in these great quotes for Kenya’s present-day, deeply flawed opinion-polling sector, particularly for the firm called Infotrak Harris. It is high time Kenyan opinion pollsters were professionally and publicly vetted and certified. Indeed, the process of professionalizing opinion pollsters would flush out all manner of quacks and would-be fortune tellers. Secondly, no political opinion poll should be published and disseminated to the public through the media of mass communication, or even directly through the Internet or social media networks, without first being required to make full disclosure of its financiers and the political leanings and, or affiliations of the firm’s Board and senior polling personnel. If these parameters and paradigms were scrupulously observed, Kenyans would be shocked at what hidden factors would rise to the surface like scum in a tank of dirty water. These eye-opening factors would explain how one presidential candidate has been artificially kept at the top of the contenders’ list for almost five years straight, through thick and thin. For instance, Infotrak Harris should always disclose that it is chaired by Mr. Jerry Okingu, one of the most diehard Odingaists who has ever lived. The CEO is Ms. Angela Ambitho, another great Odinga serial booster. Despite hemorrhaging key allies and strategic supporters, some of them in command of large swing-vote ethnic blocs, Prime Minister Raila Odinga is constantly portrayed by Infotrak Harris as enjoying a commanding lead over all other contenders, including Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi. In spite of suffering a massive loss of face and credibility – including among the Diplomatic Corps and the Diaspora – following the publication of his estranged former aide Miguna Miguna’s book Peeling Back the Mask, A Quest for Justice in Kenya, Raila is still portrayed as the man to beat at the next presidential poll by the rest of the field by opinion pollsters. The diplomatic cables sent to Washington, London, Paris, Bonn, Tokyo and other world capitals following the launch of the Miguna expose will doubtless make very interesting reading one fine day when they reach the public domain. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), despite having imploded and lost statesmen from key regions like the Rift Valley, Western and Coast, is still portrayed as Kenyans’ political party of choice. The portrayal of such key operatives as the Vice President and Eldoret North MP William Ruto as being of barely any consequence in the estimate of the Kenyan public is such a barefaced lie that it is almost sick-making. The crowds of ordinary Kenyans who welcome the VP wherever he goes in Kenya – with the exception of Luo Nyanza for reasons we shall not linger over in this analysis – are proof positive that he rates much more than the insulting sub-10% permanently reserved for him by patently fraudulent opinion pollsters. Ditto Ruto, the undisputed king of the disposition of the Rift Valley vote bloc, the self-described political “hustler” who has totally diminished the Daniel and Gideon arap Moi factor among the Kalenjin communities, to say nothing of his demolition in that region of the Raila factor.The fool-the-people opinion pollsters have made Raila break opinion-polling world records – where are those Guinness Book of World Records chaps? They should be told of this politician who leads the polls for five years running! These fraudsters long ago chose DPM Uhuru to be Raila’s permanent but distant Number Two challenger for a very good reason: the reactivation, at a strategically appointed time, of the 41 against 1 genocidal ideology agenda of the 2007 elections. The tragedy of defective, even fatally flawed, opinion polling in Kenya is that it conceals the real picture, expels the truth and sells and imposes a poisoned political fiction. It interferes with Kenyans’ own deepest convictions and self-knowledge. When you know that you will vote for the VP based on his track record of professionalism, diplomacy and peacemaking, but you are constantly told by apparently professional pollsters that you belong to a minority of less than 10% likeminded Kenyans, you might begin to doubt your choice.This is psychological advance rigging of the next presidential poll in Kenya. The narrative of the invincibility of the Odinga political brand consistently imposed by politicized and hopelessly partisan opinion pollsters must be explicitly challenged, once and for all, ahead of the next General Election, Kenya’s biggest and most expensive electoral event ever. If the opinion-polling sector will not clean up its act, professionalize as well as make full disclosure not only of its methods but also of its funding, ideologies and strategic political alliances, then it must be forced to do so by Kenyans themselves. Otherwise we are being fed pure political poison and confusion. These mind games must cease. Kenyans must be left alone to make enlightened and well-informed choices. The truth of the matter is that the Odinga political brand counts for nothing in vast swathes of Kenya outside of Luo Nyanza and Nairobi’s sprawling Kibera slum. This is a fact you will never see reflected by an opinion-polling firm chaired by Mr. Okungu and fronted by Ms. Ambitho! Instead, you will hear only of how the VP brings up the rear and the DPMs struggle far behind Raila and Ruto is of no consequence. The latest numbers from the Okungu-Ambitho opinion-polling operation purporting to show how Raila would fare in a runoff contest with each one of the big contenders, including the VP, contrives to imply a 50-50 dead-heat result if the PM were to run against Uhuru. This is pesa nane deception of the worst kind, a hoodwinking of village idiots. The only reason the Odinga strategists want a Kenyatta for a runoff foe is that they hope to play the anti-Kikuyu card by pointing out emotively, at the last minute, that it isn’t exactly equitable for Uhuru, a Kikuyu to succeed President Mwai Kibaki , another Kikuyu. This is what almost brought Kenya onto its knees after 2007 General election The Odinga clique has no deadlier weapon in its electoral arsenal than this emotional anti-Kikuyu card. This is the device through which they contrive to keep genuine contenders like the VP permanently in the shadows, while promoting the foes of their choice. And then there is the question of professionalism and methods. How many Kenyan opinion polling firms enjoy world-class sampling, data collection and data analytic capacity for survey research? How many reputable research organizations, including university departments, go to Kenyan pollsters for their sampling and data collection needs? How many manufacturers and other corporates are professionally and satisfactorily served by Kenya’s pollster sector? Is there a professional body that vets and certifies Kenyan pollsters’ methodological excellence and sampling expertise? How many of them employ the services of sampling scientists? Do they have multimedia monitoring capacity in an era of digital information communications technologies (ICTs) and social networks? All these questions require urgent and comprehensive answers. A probe of Kenya’s opinion polling, data collection and data analysis sector might reveal a snake-pit of non-professionalism and quackery that would shock even laymen. Indeed, it might turn out to be the case that some so-called research firms exist only to periodically “survey” the race to State House and to position some candidates and their political brands ahead of all others. Going forward, I believe I can without fear of contradiction state categorically that the results of the next presidential contest in Kenya, whether or not it goes into a runoff, are going to be anything but what the highly partisan Infotrak keeps harping on. The margin of error will be breathtaking and the Fourth President of Kenya will be a person whom Infotrak has belittled and ignored for almost five years. Why do I say this? Quite simply because, to all intents and purposes, in all probability, no truly professional and impartial opinion poll on the race for State House has yet been conducted in Kenya. All opinion polls so far have had a stealth agenda and a political axe to grind. What’s more, they have been mishandled by non-professionals and non-scientists. One of the most succinct and to-the-point definitions of opinion polling is to be found in Wikipedia: “An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals”. The process of extrapolating generalities in Kenyan opinion polling very clearly has no ratio and nor does it fall within any empirical confidence levels. Instead, it is weighted to perpetrate lies, damned lies and tainted statistics. The author is the Media and Communications Advisor to the Vice President. The views expressed here-in are his own.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 14, 2013 23:44:57 GMT 3
Polling firms on the spot over findings www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Polling-firms--on-the-spot-over-findings/-/1064/1620362/-/15kusra/-/index.htmlA team set up to monitor the media has criticised research companies for conducting what it termed as shallow and unscientific opinion polls on Kenya’s elections. In its weekly briefing, the National Steering Committee on Media Monitoring said the pollsters were being used by some unnamed politicians. Ms Mary Ombara, the committee secretary, specifically took issues with a recent opinion poll by Infotrak, which she claimed had only served to belittle certain presidential aspirants by only releasing figures on the popularity of certain candidates. Infotrack’s response “The design and analysis of the polling survey tools fell short of a scientific exercise. We think that the polls propositions... were an attempt at make-believe and push for non-existent power axes,” she said in Nairobi. They argued that by releasing a poll only centred on a contest between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the pollster had made the two feel “they have an upper hand” and presented the rest of the contenders as losers. When contacted, Infotrak chief executive Angela Ambitho accused the team of targeting her firm when other research firms had issued “curious” findings in the past. “Why wasn’t it an issue when it was revealed that Uhuru was catching up with Raila yet there was no explanation for that sudden rise? she posed.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 14, 2013 0:13:34 GMT 3
Shun opinion polls’ results, say Jubilee Coalition leaders standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074897&story_title=Shun-opinion-polls%E2%80%99-results,-say-Jubilee-Coalition-leaders By Felix Olick Leaders allied to the Jubilee Coalition have rubbished opinion poll results that predicted that Prime Minister Raila Odinga would win the next General Election in the first round. The leaders hit out at the pollster claiming they were doctoring the poll results in favour of Raila to hoodwink the public he was the frontrunner in the vote schedule for March 4. Dujis MP Aden Duale was blunt on his criticism of Infotrak Haris, claiming that nearly all their senior employees come from one community that is related to the PM “I want to tell Kenyans that the Infotrak CEO, the General Manager and Senior researchers in the company come from one community that is related to CORD presidential candidate,” claimed Duale. Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny claimed that CORD rivals were investing in opinion polls so that if they lose the presidential contest, they would claim the polls were rigged. “Every time they are under pressure, they conduct opinion polls. Every time they run into problems they conduct opinion polls so that if they are beaten they find an excuse to call for mass action,” claimed the Cherangany legislator. On Friday, an opinion poll conducted by Infotrak predicted that Raila would secure a first round victory if the presidential election was held then. But in a quick rejoinder, the leaders warned Kenyans to shun the polls and wait for March 4.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 14, 2013 0:10:29 GMT 3
Kenneth, Karua dismiss Infotrack opinion poll standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074988&story_title=Kenya-Kenneth,-Karua-dismiss-Infotrack-opinion-poll By Rawlings Otieno and Moses Njagih NAIROBI, KENYA: Narc Kenya presidential hopeful Martha Karua has dismissed a recent opinion poll by Infotrack research firm putting her party’s popularity in the race to State house at 0.3 per cent. Karua claimed the researchers were hoodwinking the public to tilt perception towards financiers of the research and vowed she will not recognise the pollsters. “I cannot accept the results of a research that has been financed by my competitors to be the perception of Kenyans. My opinion poll is with Kenyans and the results will be known after March 4,” said Karua. She dismissed the pollsters and accused research companies of using dubious means to raise profiles of some presidential contenders. Karua said she was confident of winning the race. The poll conducted between December 28 and January 2 showed that CORD led by PM Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka would win the election with 51 per cent while Jubilee coalition came second with 40 per cent. Karua came a distant sixth among the presidential candidates. Karua made the remarks during her campaigns at St Monica’s Catholic Church, Lunga Lunga in Nairobi on Sunday, before moving to Huruma and Karen. Elsewhere Peter Kenneth also dismissed the results of the recent opinion poll, which indicated he was performing dismally against Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Uhuru and even falling behind Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi in the race to State House. Mr Kenneth termed the opinion poll results a manipulation by some people who are keen on propelling their preferred candidates. “We are not bothered by the opinion polls, those doing it can continue playing to the interest of their candidates, but luckily there will be the real pollster when Kenyans turn to the ballot,” said Kenneth. The Gichugu legislator said she left President Kibaki’s government out of principles because it was doing a lot of injustices to people. Karua said her Government will put structures in the management of public funds and vowed to deal with looters of public coffers and to rid the country of corruption. Meanwhile Eagle Alliance are expected to announce its line-up this week. The line-up would indicate who between Kenneth and Party of Action’s Raphael Tuju will be its presidential candidate. The alliance leaders are today expected to meet with aspirants where they will also draw the list and discuss the coalition’s nominations. Speaking after attending a church service on Sunday at the Nairobi Pentecostal Church Ngong, Kenneth said after today’s meeting the coalition will start preparing its roadmap.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 23:41:33 GMT 3
standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074984&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-Uhuru-accuses-Cord-of-hatespeechKIAMBU, KENYA: Jubilee coalition presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta has told his rivals in CORD to table evidence he stole public wealth. Uhuru was responding to Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s remark that Jubilee leaders must return stolen public property, including land. “If you have any evidence that I have stolen anything, table it,” retorted Uhuru. Uhuru spoke when he led leaders from Jubilee coalition to a rally at Githunguri Stadium in Kiambu. He was accompanied by among others his running mate and URP party leader William Ruto. A visibly angry Uhuru challenged Raila to tell Kenyans what he had in store for them or quit the presidential race. Uhuru accused the PM of engaging in cheap politics. Democratic right Uhuru said CORD campaign team has been dwelling on insults and hate speech, which he vowed they would not be party to. “We will not be drawn into such campaigns. For the sake of the country, let us concentrate on development issues and avoid mentioning opponents in every rally,” he added. Uhuru reiterated that 2013 will be the year of Jubilee, adding that the country was ready for the coalition’s leadership. “My plan is to win the presidency and serve Kenyans equally. My dear brother Raila, sell your policies and stop talking about others,” added the Deputy Prime Minister. Uhuru said Kenyans should be allowed to make decision come the General Election without interference from whatever quarters. “Let Kenyans have options of voting the way they want because this is their democratic right guaranteed by the Constitution,” added Uhuru. The Gatundu South MP further said the Jubilee coalition will work towards uniting Kenyans and expanding the economy to better lives. “We know The Hague case is there and with God’s grace, it will be over. It should not be used to campaign against us,” added Uhuru. Uhuru commended President Kibaki for rejecting hefty pensions for MPs, saying they should fend for themselves. He pointed out that the retirement law was meant to benefit the President, the VP and the PM. Uhuru said insecurity would never be eradicated through harassment or killing the youth. “The solution is to provide opportunities for the youth so that they can provide for their families,” he added. He thanked residents of Kiambu County for registering in high numbers as voters. The DPM also appealed to Kiambu County residents to come out in large numbers and vote for a jubilee government. Uhuru assured TNA members that party nominations would be free and fair. Sense defeat Ruto, similarly, hit out at CORD, saying they had sensed defeat and started strange antics of slanted opinion polls. He, however, exuded confidence that Jubilee coalition will win elections because all parts of the country were unanimous that Uhuru becomes the fourth president. The Eldoret North MP said a jubilee government will give priority to equity irrespective of class, tribe, race or religion. “Rift Valley, Central, Nairobi, Eastern and Western have all decided that it is Jubilee,” added the Eldoret North MP. Ruto said revamping agriculture will take precedence in a Jubilee coalition government, as this was the backbone of the economy that needed to be supported fully.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 21:17:39 GMT 3
my suggestion to pollsters. 1) Use registered votes..Infotrak used 18th dec..but if you compare their data with IEBC data..its INACCURATE..they claim Nairobi has 2.1M registered votes...whilst we know 1.7M registered..Did they cross check that?. In RV they claim 3.1M..whilst we know 3.4M registered... With just that single error...INFOTRAK has lost neary 0.8M..about 6-7%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! of their result therefore become erroneous. You cannot call that scientific. Error margins of +-6% ignoring data collection errors, data entry errors, sampling errors. 2) Dump province unless you know how to navigate RV, Eastern, Coast, Western and Nyanza. RV is very complicated. And it's 25% of the vote. You get it wrong...and you miss the plot. You can use IEBC regions or you have to JUDICIOUSLY select counties that are representative. Infotrak purposive selection in RV and Eastern are erroneous. Get another strata..forget about province.. Purposive criteria SHOULD BE TRIBE. You cannot claim to have possessively selected counties without any justification. 3) Do proper household survey..not telephone calls..randomly select folks..make sure they show ID card..show voter cards. Finally have high quality data handling and analysis from get go. Infotrak if they cannot notice Nairobi 2.1M vote ERROR cannot possible produce high quality poll you would expect of a scientific poll.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 14:12:40 GMT 3
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 13:51:07 GMT 3
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 13:35:47 GMT 3
Mangai You completely miss the point! No one suggesting that ODM has a sizable Luhyia following. My point was with regard to the political relevance of Mudavadi come March 4 and hence my advice on what he should do. Unfortunately in doing this he willb e hurting ODM which should not concern him however much those in jubilee think it is a good idea or you guys dislike him for it. It is nothing more than political advise! Kamale , You are right and on point -just an addition -Mudavadis political relevance beyond March 4 elections and precisely 2018 elections is pegged on your advice by Western voting for him as block . We saw that with Kalonzo n Lower Eastern political base in 2007 GE and Ruto with Rift Valley during 2010 referendum.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 11:57:31 GMT 3
Musalia Mudavadi's Amani (Mulembe) coalition has in the meantime taken western by storm. Their rallies at the Posta Grounds in Bungoma and at the famous Muliro gardens in Kakamega have been very successful and attracted huge and very enthusiastic crowds. There seems to be a silent declaration that this time, the western electorate will speak in one voice and vote together for their own, especially after being left out in the crafting of the major coalitions. The coming together of the Bukusus through Wamalwa's New Ford-K and the Maragoli through Mudavadi's UDF, two largest sub-tribes of the luhya is billed to be the game changer for amani and its candidate Musalia Mudavadi. It has also meant that he is now very comfortable in three huge counties of Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma. Mudavadi will now need to ostracize Odinga from Busia county in order to sit pretty and fully benefit from the solid 1.4M votes in this region. standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074915&story_title=Amani:-Opponents-have-lost,-want-to-derail-our-bid Mudavadi at Muliro Gardens, Kakamega Mudavadi at Posta Grounds, Bungoma Mwalimumkuu KUKU YA MASHAMBANI HAI WIKI MJINI, he will not be the next president with a few votes from his community, the Luhya community knows the game that is being played and Mudavadi is being used, after Western where is he going next? Merkeju, They say learn from history. In this case scenario Kalonzo of 2007 they said Kalonzo was being used and it was a game and the votes he would get would only be from his community and he will be far from winning. Well he became the vice president of Kenya and his party Mps went on and became Ministers and Assistant Ministers in plum government ministries not mentioning Ambassadorial posts and others to add onto that they also performed in their respective positions unlike ODM . So make the mistake of ignoring Musalias bid at your own peril even Nyachae after 2002 elections after only garnering only 300,000 or so votes was able to secure some positions in the then Narc government.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 11:42:23 GMT 3
NOWAYHAHA:Perhaps I am slightly DENSE because I do NOT see your point. Is it the number of "O"s in their names? Or the amount of River Nile water coursing through their veins? Onyango Oloo OO, With due respect the point is just that -BE THE JUDGE From the thread Kamales sees the polls as flawed and suspects that her poll sample never changes Mzee would be worried if the pollsters were synovate Mwalimu points out a fact that last time they got it wrong and the real poll is what matters Rais sees the management as very well educated and experienced You see the number of Os in their names and river nile coursing through their veins Reporter sees a Kikuyu controlled government and all people controlling key departments and corporations are from Central province Bkichwa lists from the registry the founders and owners of Infotrack as C.E.O Angela Ambitho,General Manager -Tobias Otieno, Co founder-Jerry Okungu, Senior Researcher Adams Oloo, Qualitative and Head of Statistics - Daniel Obara,Senior Administration Officer is Lilian Awino .He further asserts 47 out 51 enumerators came from the same region Angela trys to damage control after backlash from the public -That you and I (the public) deserves information- She forgets the basic principle of information -Information is good as long as its the truth else it is known as disinformation/black propaganda. Peter Kenneth claims that infotrack main agenda is to box Kenyans into a mindset that suits infotracks candidate of choice and asserts that such trickery wont work as Kenyans are the real pollsters come 04-March-2013 Mr Ruto claims that top managers at Infotrak Research and Consulting that conducted the poll were related to Cord presidential candidate Raila Odinga and asks that On March 4 if CORD lose the elections, and Kenyans decide that it is Jubilee then CORD should be ready to accept defeat. Seems rather than my point (which was BE THE JUDGE )you want to hear my take .OK sample this from Infotrack About Us page on Senior Management www.infotrakresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=86:senior-management-team&catid=2&Itemid=7Founder and Group C.E.O - Angela Ambitho- Passion in Strategic Management-Strategic Management is all about identification and description of the strategies that managers can carry so as to achieve better performance and a competitive advantage for their organization or a third party organization. Question she is doing political opinion polls then which amongst the political divide is acting as the strategic manager. Respected as a marketer -She is doing political opinion polls which politician or political party is she marketing Passion in Business and entrepreneurship -Is Infotrack a business entity ? and If so who funds infotrack and its opinion polls logistics. Therein is the agenda of Infotrack .
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 10:49:29 GMT 3
www.kenyan-post.com/2013/01/infotrack-harris-is-owned-by-member-of.htmlINFOTRACK HARRIS is owned by a member of RAILA’s CORD - RUTO asserts Saturday January 12, 2013 - Eldoret North MP William Ruto has sensationally claimed that Infotrak Harris Company is owned by a Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) member and he is the one sponsoring the polls. Addressing thousands of Jubilee supporters who had turned up for major rally at the historic Uhuru Park grounds on Saturday, Ruto who is also the Jubilee coalition’s running mate said CORD leaders fear defeat, a reason for funding opinion polls. He said the next elections will be won by Kenyan votes but not flawed opinion polls. In the rally which was attended by more than 100 MPs, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was unveiled as the Coalition’s Presidential flag bearer where he assured Kenyans that his government will create wealth, employment and good public service delivery. On looming party nomination Uhuru and Ruto assured their aspirants that there will be no direct nominations in the Jubilee Coalition and every aspirant had a democratic right to compete on January 17 parties nominations.
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 10:47:07 GMT 3
Jubilee poised for poll victory, say Uhuru and Ruto Jubilee presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto on Saturday expressed confidence their alliance will win the elections. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto said they had put in place a clear plan to clinch victory. The leaders dismissed the latest opinion poll that projected an election win for their rival, the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord). The DPM said that contrary to the results released by the pollsters his coalition was also popular in Nairobi and urged his supporters to turn out in large number to disapprove the polls. “If they are saying we do not have the numbers then what will they say when they see this huge crowd here,” Mr Kenyatta told his supporters during a rally at Uhuru Parkl, Nairobi Saturday. Mr Ruto claimed that top managers at Infotrak Research and Consulting that conducted the poll were related to Cord presidential candidate Raila Odinga. ‘On March 4 we are asking that if they lose elections, that if Kenyans decide that it is Jubilee they should be ready to accept defeat,” Mr Ruto said. elections.nation.co.ke/news/-/1631868/1663948/-/format/xhtml/-/pww0u2/-/index.html
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 13, 2013 10:34:33 GMT 3
The latest opinion poll by lnfotrack is a continuous orchestrated attempt by the pollster to mislead Kenyans and box them into a mindset that suits lnfotrack's candidate of choice. This blatant attempt to fool us will NOT work as Kenyans will be the real pollsters on 4th March 2013- Peter Kenneth-Facebook
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 11, 2013 13:22:50 GMT 3
www.infotrakresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=86:senior-management-team&catid=2&Itemid=7Founder and Group C.E.O - Angela Ambitho Angela Ambitho is the Founder and CEO of Infotrak Research and consulting. Whilst Angela’s passion heavily hinges on Strategic management, she is also respected as a marketer owing to the various roles she has played in the Marketing society of Kenya where she was a council member. Her Responsibilities chiefly entail providing overall strategic guidance and overseeing the company's regional and global business development. She is a member of several professional bodies including ESOMAR(European Social and Market Research Association, WAPOR (World Association of polling and opinion research), American Chamber of Commerce ( Kenya Chapter), MSK( Marketing Society of Kenya) and PRSK (Public Relations Society Kenya). Prior to starting Infotrak, Angela spent 10 years working with another leading information services & research provider where she held various senior management positions. Her interest in social sciences dates back to her undergraduate days at the University of Nairobi where she attained a BA in Sociology and History. Her passion for business and entrepreneurship was ignited while studying for her MBA majoring in Strategic Management. She also attended the highly coveted Bucerius Summer School on Global Governance, Hamburg in 2007. General Manager - Tobias Odhiambo Tobias Odhiambo is the General Manager for Infotrak. He has over six years’ experience in research and data processing and worked for three years as a data processing analyst. He has competence in handing large amounts of data and is trained in data processing, statistical analysis, data quality control, survey project management and survey instrument design. Mr. Odhiambo has carried out market and social research projects predominantly in Kenya over the past six years. He holds a M.Sc. degree in Applied Statistics from Maseno University and a B.S. degree in Mathematics from Moi University. Public Policy & Governance Research Division Manager - Raphael Mulwa Raphael Mulwa is a research analyst and project manager with experience in policy analysis, governance research, research training, team management, quality control management, survey instrument design and methodology; supervision of survey field work, and report writing and presentation. He holds an LL.B in Law from the University of Nairobi. Country Manager Nigeria - Johvine Wanyingo JohvineWanyingo is a senior field operations manager at Infotrak currently based in and overseeing the Nigerian Operations. Mr. Wanyingo has 7 years’ experience in Marketing and Social Research, handling both local and multinational clients in Sub-Saharan Africa, and was an Associate Instructor for Centre for Applied Research Training - (SCART) at Strathmore University. He holds a Bachelors of Business Administration degree from Dar es Salaam University and a Diploma in Social Work and Community Development from the Regional Institute of Business Management. Research Manager Nigeria - Olukemi Osoba Kemi has a wealth of experience in Marketing Research. She has worked on large multi-national and local clients accounts and has done almost all types of research. She has a vast experience in co-ordinating and conducting projects of both qualitative and quantitative nature. She has a degree in English from the University of Ilorin and Master Degree in Public Administration from Lagos State University with over 10 years of research experience. Before joining Infotrak, she had worked with leading research agencies in Nigeria, These are: Research Solutions Limited, Market Research Consultancy Limited, Communication , Market Research Groups Limited and AGF Research International where she was Head Of Research. Kemi is a member of Nigeria Market Research Association (NiMRA) and Advertising Practitioners of Nigeria (APCON). Our Vision and Mission Our Team About Infotrak Research Infotrak's Belief and Guiding Principles The Business Rationale About Infotrak The Research Team About Us Infotrak Reporting - Our Winning Formula
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 11, 2013 5:56:54 GMT 3
Just for the fun of it without any factual basis ! Jubilee Coalition=Radical Conservatists= Radical rightRV; 0.66 *3,373,853=2249235 Jubilee ( Pro-Ruto Kipsigis/Nandi + Pro Kenyatta TNA zones; Urban centers e.g Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Molo, Burnt forest e.t.c) Central0.8*2190477=1752381 ( Pro Uhuru zones ) Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 (Pro Uhuru Embu+Meru; Pro Ngilu Kamba) Cave !! If Amani Coalition does not pick a Meru VP ;read -> Kiraitu Nyanza0.2*1954756=390951 (Pro Uhuru Kisii land + Diaspora pro Jubilee) Western 0 significance Coast0.3*1164083=387988 (Pro URP Rural Pro TNA Urban Pro Balala Influence) Northeastern0.3*347457=115807 ( Pro URP Pastoralists ) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 6483370 approx. 45 %Cord Coalition=Social democrats=Central leftistsRV 0.166*3373853=562308 Pro ODM diehards, progressive islands e.g Urban and Suburban RV / RV middle-class Kalenjin, diaspora ODM (based on ethnicity; Luos, Kambas, Luhya), Pastolists like Maasai ; Turkana Nations. Central0.1*2190477=175238 e.g Mau mau descendants Eastern0.3*2092883=697557 Pro Raila Meru, Pro Kalonzo Kambaland If Amani Coalition picks a Meru as VP !! Nyanza0.8*1954756=1563805 (Raila factor) Western0.5*1434987=717493 (Western - Amani influence) Coast0.666*1164083=775279 (Raila/Kalonzo/Joho+Crew Faktor) Northeastern0.333*347457=115807 (Pro Cord pastoralists) Nairobi 0.5*1778903=889451 Grand Total 5496938 approx. 38%Amani Coalition = Centrists = right leaning liberalsRV 562308 ( Pro Kanu Moi factor / NVP Biwott factor / Transzoia Wamalwa-Kirwa factor ) Central 175238 ( Kibaki/ Statehse Project factor) Eastern if Amani picks Meru VP 697557 Meru Votes Nyanza 0 Western 0.50*1434987=717493 (Mudavadi/Wamalwa factor) Coast 0 Northeastern 0.3*347457=115807 Nairobi 0 Significance Grand Total 2268403 approx. 15%I am a pro Cord supporter but my Junk estimates worry me ! For CORD, the battle grounds are clear; based on the significance of swing votes out there and based on the quantity that can actually be converted/realised 1. RV; With the highest swing votes !! 2.Western 3.Nairobi 4. Eastern 5. CoastRight now Cord is ignoring RV at it's own peril. Without RV you will not beat Jubilee. Take my word to the bank ! There is a feeling among CORD supporters of RV that this is the case!! Based on my Junk estimates, resources should be directed to door to door campaigns, rallies, town hall meetings with opinion leaders, voter mobilization and logistics on election day and not forgetting policy adverts in the media ; esp, vernacular Airwaves, TV and Newspapers Nation, Standard and regional. Mobile messaging in partnership with Safaricom , Telekom you name it. My centi nusu Unedited Nok, Thanks for your objectivity , you can see things for what they are and acknowledge the fact as it stands Jubilee is winning the upcomming elections. I hope you could also shed some light to Rais. www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleI....aringo-backyardThe Jubilee coalition has exuded confidence that it will win the General Election in the first round. Addressing rallies in Baringo County yesterday, the alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, said they have the numbers and dismissed opinion polls showing Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his CORD partners as favourites to win the polls. “Elections are won by numbers and nothing else, so let us face the facts and those showing signs of panic should accept the hard reality,” said Uhuru. Ruto added in Mogotio Constituency, “The writing is on the wall. The magicians of opinion polls should know that numbers don’t lie.” He said the coalition had done its calculations and they would garner around eight million votes in the elections — the first under the 2010 promulgated Constitution. Have numbers “We have the numbers to form the next government this year. Our team is focused and we will win the March election,” said the coalition’s deputy president designate. Ruto told Cord to prepare to be in the opposition, saying in Kiswahili; “Ukiona mwenzako ananyolewa nawe tia kichwa chako maji.” Prime Minister Raila Odinga has dismissed Jubilee Alliance’s claims that they have the numbers to win the election, saying opinion polls showed otherwise. Uhuru recalled conceding defeat in the 2002 election together with Ruto and said then they were not lucky but in March there are all indications that they will form the next government. “In 2002, luck was not with us after people with selfish interests deserted us and declared another candidate, but we accepted that. It is now ten years and all indications are that we will be the next occupants of State House,” he said. He said the Jubilee coalition was a pact of peace and unity to enable the country grow economically and stabilise. The team divided themselves in two groups that flew in three helicopters in order to cover four political rallies in Mogotio, Muchongoi, Churo and Kabarnet Town in the expansive county. In the campaign trail were Samuel Poghisio, Lee Kinyanjui, Moses Sekuda, Maison Leshomo, Moses Lessonet, Sammy Mwaita, William Cheptumo, Aden Duale, and Mohammed Mohammud. Ruto explained to voters in the region that he joined hands with Uhuru to show the whole world that Kikuyus and Kalenjins were not enemies. “I decided to form a political pact with Uhuru because we want the world to know that Kenyans have faith in us and they don’t believe we participated in the 2008 post-election violence,” said Ruto. Tana security On insecurity in the Tana Delta and parts of Baringo County, Ruto challenged security forces to be more firm on perpetrators of violence, saying the newly appointed Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo and police officers should “pull up their socks and tighten their belts” to improve security. “We cannot expand the economy if we can’t protect the lives and property of the people of Kenya,” he said. Uhuru and Ruto challenged Kanu chairman Gideon Moi to join URP, saying it was the party of choice in the region and that if he wanted to be the first Senator of Baringo County he should re-think his political stand. “We have a lot of respect for former president Moi but Kanu’s time in Baringo County is over. He was the defender of pastoralists. We want the people of Baringo to vote ‘six-piece-style’ in the coming general election,” he said. Uhuru added that his government would respect retired leaders, as they are like a gem to society. “We respect Moi and when President Kibaki retires, we will treat him well as well,” he said. Duale also put on notice Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, telling her to defect to URP or lose her parliamentary seat. The Dujis MP said Jubilee would ensure equality, improve the economy and engage the youth and women in meaningful development through provision of cheap loans. Read more: jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=7722&page=2#ixzz2HdFbY5i8
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Post by nowayhaha on Jan 11, 2013 5:47:20 GMT 3
www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000074777&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-Jubilee-takes-campaigns-to-retired-president%E2%80%99s-Baringo-backyardThe Jubilee coalition has exuded confidence that it will win the General Election in the first round. Addressing rallies in Baringo County yesterday, the alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, said they have the numbers and dismissed opinion polls showing Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his CORD partners as favourites to win the polls. “Elections are won by numbers and nothing else, so let us face the facts and those showing signs of panic should accept the hard reality,” said Uhuru. Ruto added in Mogotio Constituency, “The writing is on the wall. The magicians of opinion polls should know that numbers don’t lie.” He said the coalition had done its calculations and they would garner around eight million votes in the elections — the first under the 2010 promulgated Constitution. Have numbers “We have the numbers to form the next government this year. Our team is focused and we will win the March election,” said the coalition’s deputy president designate. Ruto told Cord to prepare to be in the opposition, saying in Kiswahili; “Ukiona mwenzako ananyolewa nawe tia kichwa chako maji.” Prime Minister Raila Odinga has dismissed Jubilee Alliance’s claims that they have the numbers to win the election, saying opinion polls showed otherwise. Uhuru recalled conceding defeat in the 2002 election together with Ruto and said then they were not lucky but in March there are all indications that they will form the next government. “In 2002, luck was not with us after people with selfish interests deserted us and declared another candidate, but we accepted that. It is now ten years and all indications are that we will be the next occupants of State House,” he said. He said the Jubilee coalition was a pact of peace and unity to enable the country grow economically and stabilise. The team divided themselves in two groups that flew in three helicopters in order to cover four political rallies in Mogotio, Muchongoi, Churo and Kabarnet Town in the expansive county. In the campaign trail were Samuel Poghisio, Lee Kinyanjui, Moses Sekuda, Maison Leshomo, Moses Lessonet, Sammy Mwaita, William Cheptumo, Aden Duale, and Mohammed Mohammud. Ruto explained to voters in the region that he joined hands with Uhuru to show the whole world that Kikuyus and Kalenjins were not enemies. “I decided to form a political pact with Uhuru because we want the world to know that Kenyans have faith in us and they don’t believe we participated in the 2008 post-election violence,” said Ruto. Tana security On insecurity in the Tana Delta and parts of Baringo County, Ruto challenged security forces to be more firm on perpetrators of violence, saying the newly appointed Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo and police officers should “pull up their socks and tighten their belts” to improve security. “We cannot expand the economy if we can’t protect the lives and property of the people of Kenya,” he said. Uhuru and Ruto challenged Kanu chairman Gideon Moi to join URP, saying it was the party of choice in the region and that if he wanted to be the first Senator of Baringo County he should re-think his political stand. “We have a lot of respect for former president Moi but Kanu’s time in Baringo County is over. He was the defender of pastoralists. We want the people of Baringo to vote ‘six-piece-style’ in the coming general election,” he said. Uhuru added that his government would respect retired leaders, as they are like a gem to society. “We respect Moi and when President Kibaki retires, we will treat him well as well,” he said. Duale also put on notice Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, telling her to defect to URP or lose her parliamentary seat. The Dujis MP said Jubilee would ensure equality, improve the economy and engage the youth and women in meaningful development through provision of cheap loans.
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