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Post by politicalmaniac on Mar 18, 2008 2:12:11 GMT 3
AO You got it! As R used to say, once a baby is born ant no way its going back to the womb. Why do they think they are special? Their paradigm of thought needs to change or basically they will self isolate themselves from the rest. If I am them, I would agitate for the following That if the PM is from the majority party and all the cabinet posts are from that party, the the President should come from the party that got the second most votes, while the winner of the Presidential race is the VP, the two dep PMs can be shared. That way the opposition has some leverage too.
I think the TZ model has the President rotating between Zanzibar and the mainland.
Instead the PNUists want to scuttle the changes, that are moving on with inexorable force.
What does this mean for the final draft constitution, if these guys/gals in PNU are going to be anti change?
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Post by job on Mar 18, 2008 3:14:35 GMT 3
The most significant thing I picked from Ngunyi's article is that he has introduced yet another controversial DEMAND, for the PNU fellas to incorporate into the DEAL.
That is the element of the so called proportionate constitutuency representation.
Trouble is,...it is not the job of parliament to redraw constituency boundaries. That important function lies under the mandate of our now discredited ECK and no one wants to go there right now, until the ECK itself is reformed.
It is not about shaping up deals that give either party a competitive political edge in future, it's about a compromise that has both parties meeting in the middle.
PNU's lucklustre parliamentary strength may not be changed by redrawing constituency boundaries. The reality is that when that demand comes, then Ngunyi will realize that probably ODM may benefit more from the same. Alongside Central, Nairobi, Western, Nyanza, and parts of Coast and Rift Valley also need the same increased parliamentary seats he's talking about.
For PNU to initiate such an isolationist move would be suicidal with the realization of what 22% of the population translates to in parliamentary strength.
Job
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Post by adongo23456 on Mar 18, 2008 3:29:09 GMT 3
The most significant thing I picked from Ngunyi's article is that he has introduced yet another controversial DEMAND, for the PNU fellas to incorporate into the DEAL. That is the element of the so called proportionate constituency representation. Trouble is,...it is not the job of parliament to redraw constituency boundaries. That important function lies under the mandate of our now discredited ECK and no one wants to go there right now, until the ECK itself is reformed. It is not about shaping up deals that give either party a competitive political edge in future, it's about a compromise that has both parties meeting in the middle. PNU's lucklustre parliamentary strength may not be changed by redrawing constituency boundaries. The reality is that when that demand comes, then Ngunyi will realize that probably ODM may benefit more from the same. Alongside Central, Nairobi, Western, Nyanza, and parts of Coast and Rift Valley also need the same increased parliamentary seats he's talking about. For PNU to initiate such an isolationist move would be suicidal with the realization of what 22% of the population translates to in parliamentary strength. Job True Kibera alone has a population of almost one million. How many M.Ps would they get if we had to implement the proportionate representation principle? Ngunyi also naively assumes that if such a law was enacted then somehow a certain number of M.P's would just be picked up now. That is ridiculous. The real issue of the constituency boundary configurations which are already under way, some of which could have been done before the last elections is that they are all over the country. Those new constituency boundaries if fairly implemented would not favour any one particular political party. I think Ngunyi with his usual conspiracy politics (consultancy services) has just been overtaken by events on this matter. He will catch up. He is a smart fella. adongo
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Post by job on Mar 18, 2008 6:27:02 GMT 3
AO, Quite correct. Ngunyi is smart enough to silently give lethal ammunition to PNU in what superficially might appear a quite balanced article. The ammunition is however seriously flawed and illogical.
Yes, he warns ODM with brilliant arguments to back up his points. He similarly warns PNU with equally brilliant support angles.
LAKINI - Underneath his forest of words, lies the elephant that you could actually end up missing. The idea of raising PNU's attention to this proportionate representation argument as a lobbying point for inclusion in the constitution amendment, suggests an attempt to add too much salt into the broth to render it bad. What are Ngunyi's expected outcomes should PNU adopt such an isolationist idea,.....effect a roadblock ? delay the process? negate the deal?
Then there's also this stupid idea of folks (both in ODM & PNU) ridiculously jostling for cabinet positions within the coalition government. Well, on PNU's side, the Deputy Premiership is being jostled for by Uhuru, Karua and Kiraitu.
At least that has been sorted out on the ODM side, however, I would strongly wish to advice fellas like Ojode and Kajwang in particular, to go SLOW, take a deep breath and relax coz they are not exactly top picks for the cabinet anyway. Kajwang should just thank his gods and be grateful that he is in parliament. Some of these things are better said soon enough.
Job
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Post by deyiengs on Mar 18, 2008 6:52:28 GMT 3
Sometimes I fail to understand these folks(PANUAists). I understand that there exist defferences in opinions, but these folks are just going far.
I read that Ngumyi article with glee, particularly when he argued out about the 100,000 vs 4000 voter representation. They are the same fears that a friend of mine, jokingly, expressed to me last week. There was, of course, no way I could have agreed with him on this because I really did not see any logic to it. He was the first to call me this afternoon when this article was published. The idea of representation will be crucial. PANU will find all ways necessary to get out of this. They will do it however late it might seem to be. Remember folks, we are dealing some of the most arrogant(Sorry kamalet and co.) clique ever. Now that Ngunyi has gone the Muthaura way, let’s expect at least a press conference soon from some PANU MPs – those who’ll op-out of this deal.
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Post by adongo23456 on Mar 23, 2008 1:50:55 GMT 3
FolksHere comes Muthaura again. I hope this is a hoax story. Why on earth should Anyang' Nyong'o and Henry Kosgey be meeting with Muthaura, a civil servant to beg for positions in the cabinet? Who gave Muthaura the responsibility to produce a cabinet for the country? Something there just doesn't add up? Who needs phantom ministries where they will give the ODM ministers a desk, big cars and a flag, PS and zero budget? It is nonsense. Why do we need 41 ministries and 81 assistant ministers? What happened to the idea of PNU and ODM harmonizing their manifestos? That is what Raila promised that a committee was working on. It is getting a little tiresome but let us hope we are going to have this matter resolved by Tuesday. anyway here is the nauseating story: www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143983721&cid=4adongo
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Post by job on Mar 25, 2008 0:12:52 GMT 3
Adongo,
My fears are that we started the path towards implementing the Peace and Reconciliation Accord on a terrible note.
As a nation, we could be united in either of two competing "Buses",...either the Reform Bus or the Status-quo Bus.
My judgement at the moment is that we are currently all lining up to board the Status-quo Bus. With the inaugration of the PM and the naming of the cabinet (which may confirm my as sertion ), we may be set to begin a bumpy ride on the Status-Quo Express Bus under the same "business as usual" route.
Since the top priorities besides the IDP issue are; CONSTITUTION REFORMS, ELECTORAL REFORMS, POLICE & JUDICIARY REFORMS, TRUTH - JUSTICE & RECONCILIATION EFFORTS ETC...then you can almost project the outcome of each respective priority depending on which "Bus" we board. If we are in the Status-Quo Bus, expect nothing to change my friends.
Next comes the contingency of running government under either of two competing manifestoes.
It is extremely difficult to practically merge two competing manifestos; - when one stands for a unitary state and another a devolved state - when one advocates market-based/ patronage-driven land access policies and the other advocates historic redress and equity-based land access policies - when one wants to close the chapter on previous corruption while the other wants to dig into and restitute corruption proceeds such as those mentioned in the Kroll report - when one wants to question Safaricom's opaque disposal while the other wants to quickly proceed and sell Safaricom shares despite lack of transparency - when one wants to invest huge in infrastructure while the other wants to invest huge in internal and external security.
There is little middle ground in these things, it's a scenario of either you follow one manifesto or the other.
What's my big point?
It's as simple as this. Either Kibaki is still determined to have his status-quo policies and manifesto to prevail under this coalition.......or Raila assumes he will effect reform policies as Prime Minister in the coalition.
Control of key cabinet Ministries is key to effecting each one's respective manifesto. For instance, control of the Justice & Constitution Ministry is key to facilitating constitutional reforms, control of the Internal Security Ministry is key to effecting Police & Provincial Administration reforms, while control of the Finance Ministry is key to many other policies. It will not be easy to AGREE on a cabinet when it may mean that unfavourable selection may render one partner to silently watch the literal decimation of their aspirations (manifesto) while ironically participating in that very process.
If you give this issue a deeper thought, you may actually realize that there's little about merging of PNU & ODM manifestos. One manifesto and set of policies maybe currently already in effect.
One of the big issues, the disposal of public shares at Safaricom is already in process. It means one manifesto (PNU's status-quo) has infact prevailed.
The rush to proceed with important government decisions while details of the Peace and Reconciliation Accord were still being worked out was an affront to the nation. If anything, the only concern that needed utmost priority was about displaced victims of electoral violence.
The biggest indicator that there's a concerted determination to continue perpetrating a "business as usual" approach is the PRIORITIZATION of the disposal of public shares at Safaricom.
Add that to PNU's insistent wish (via Muthaura's utterances) to retain all 17 cabinet portfolios already filled unilaterally by Kibaki, then you complete the retain-the-status-quo equation.
Kibaki's priority is not even about the prompt naming of a cabinet to jumpstart the reconciliation and reconstruction effort,.....he is already effecting many of his policies unilaterally with the half cabinet.
His priority is not exactly about those IDP's stranded in rain-drenched tents, it is about the salient power and wealth consolidation efforts (for a few) outside the public radar.
Let's call a spade a spade, PNU's priority vehemently pushed forth by Kimunya is to offload public shares at Safaricom and in the process accomplish a few things;
1) Free Moi and Biwott of the MOBITELEA nightmare (prominently mentioned in the Kroll report). 2) Surreptitiously bring in new mega-shareholders (Kibaki allies) of high-net worth value into Safaricom. 3) Raise close to shs 50 billion into Treasury to "fill in" some pockets we may not exactly know much about.
The Safaricom deal is still about covering up past corruption and breeding new corruption - business as usual, or status quo nonsense.
Essentially, it is anticipated that Mobitelea's shares ( temporarily and superficially concealed within Vodafone's share holdings) will somehow (silently) get disposed during the IPO offer.
This will have technically laundered the corruption/grabbing proceeds and freed the Moi and Biwott families this undending headache. Moi-Biwott will smile all the way to the bank with fresh, clean and laundered money -one down the Kroll list. Part of this cash is suspected payoff to offset Kibaki's 2007 campaign creditors.
Who knows if Moi promised Kibaki some payback if the latter helped offload Mobitelea shares from Safaricom. That's why it irks to see these transactions proceeding without transparency & with only partial disclosures.
Are Moi and Biwott (in exchange) offering as a bonus, intimate intelligence and counsel towards the security operations currently being undertaken within Rift Valley Province, including the recent "extermination" of the Sabaot Land Defense Forces. What other "help" is Moi offering within Rift Valley, especially native Nandi and Kipsigis areas besides instigating the arrest of Nandi and Kipsigis elders like Kibor.
Kibaki is still TAKING CARE of his friends worries while the coalition partners are still outside of power and IDPs still outside their homes. Moi's worries are being worked out at Safaricom, Museveni's worries at the Mt Elgon, Kenya-Uganda border, (Sabaot Land Defense Forces threat) are now suddenly a priority -when in reality the skirmishes have continued for years while Kibaki ignored. It seems these things have to be done before the so called partners come in.
In a nutshell, the Safaricom deal tells you that Kibaki's desire to curtail pursuit on past corruption is already in effect. The desire to continue as usual is in effect.
From Kimunya's recent actions, we can assume that resettlement of IDP's isn't exactly PRIORITY NUMBER 1 for PNU. So is any reform agenda. PNU's creation of a stalemate in the cabinet selection process is directly in the path of resettling these IDPs who may soon know who their real enemies-within are.
FOR ODM TO PLAY AN EFFECTIVE ROLE IN THE COALITION AGENDA,....FOR RAILA TO KEEP HIS HAND RELEVANTLY ON THE REFORM STEERING WHEEL,......A FEW THINGS NEED TO BE DONE;
1) DISSOCIATION FROM UNCLEAR OR SUSPICIOUS DEALS CURRENTLY BEING UNDERTAKEN INCULDING THE SAFARICOM DEAL & QUESTIONABLE SECURITY OPERATIONS.
2) INSISTENCE ON FAIR AND EQUITABLE SELECTION OF THE CABINET TO REFLECT REAL POWER-SHARING, ODM'S PRIORITY SHOULD BE PLACED ON REFORM-ORIENTED MINISTRIES.
3) PUSH FOR THEIR PEOPLE-FRIENDLY MANIFESTO & POLICIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION, POLICIES MUST NOT ORIGINATE FROM AN OBSCURE OFFICE (such as Muthaura's) OUTSIDE THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE.
4) CALL FOR THE RETURN OF KOFI ANNAN TO FACILITATE ISSUES 2 (MINISTRY SHARING) & 3 (MANIFESTO CHOICE) NOW. PUTTING BLIND FAITH IN PNU TO CONCEDE & SHARE REAL POWER MUST BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NOW. JOB.
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Post by job on Mar 26, 2008 0:57:41 GMT 3
Let's call a spade a spade, PNU's priority vehemently pushed forth by Kimunya is to offload public shares at Safaricom and in the process accomplish a few things; 1) Free Moi and Biwott of the MOBITELEA nightmare (prominently mentioned in the Kroll report). 2) Surreptitiously bring in new mega-shareholders (Kibaki allies) of high-net worth value into Safaricom. 3) Raise close to shs 50 billion into Treasury to "fill in" some pockets we may not exactly know much about. The Safaricom deal is still about covering up past corruption and breeding new corruption - business as usual, or status quo nonsense........ Who knows if Moi promised Kibaki some payback if the latter helped offload Mobitelea shares from Safaricom. That's why it irks to see these transactions proceeding without transparency & with only partial disclosures. In a nutshell, the Safaricom deal tells you that Kibaki's desire to curtail pursuit on past corruption is already in effect. The desire to continue as usual is in effect. FOR ODM TO PLAY AN EFFECTIVE ROLE IN THE COALITION AGENDA,....FOR RAILA TO KEEP HIS HAND RELEVANTLY ON THE REFORM STEERING WHEEL,......A FEW THINGS NEED TO BE DONE; 1) DISSOCIATION FROM UNCLEAR OR SUSPICIOUS DEALS CURRENTLY BEING UNDERTAKEN INCULDING THE SAFARICOM DEAL & QUESTIONABLE SECURITY OPERATIONS. 2) INSISTENCE ON FAIR AND EQUITABLE SELECTION OF THE CABINET TO REFLECT REAL POWER-SHARING, ODM'S PRIORITY SHOULD BE PLACED ON REFORM-ORIENTED MINISTRIES. 3) PUSH FOR THEIR PEOPLE-FRIENDLY MANIFESTO & POLICIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION, POLICIES MUST NOT ORIGINATE FROM AN OBSCURE OFFICE (such as Muthaura's) OUTSIDE THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE. 4) CALL FOR THE RETURN OF KOFI ANNAN TO FACILITATE ISSUES 2 (MINISTRY SHARING) & 3 (MANIFESTO CHOICE) NOW. PUTTING BLIND FAITH IN PNU TO CONCEDE & SHARE REAL POWER MUST BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NOW. JOB. Amen for some sober voices to see what's really going on here. Today, the ODM has released a statement objecting to the Safaricom IPO deal. THE FACT THAT FOLKS ARE ENTERING INTO A COALITION, (WITH NO OPPOSITION ) DOES NOT MEAN WE SIT AND WATCH OUR NATIONAL JEWELS DISPOSED TO FRIENDS FOR LITTLE CHANGE AND WITHOUT TRANSPARENCY. LET'S SEE THIS DEAL FOR WHAT IT IS IN REALITY. THIS IS NO POLITICS, IT IS DAYLIGHT ROBBERY. WE ARE BEING ROBBED AS WE CHEER AND PARTICIPATE IN SOME PALTRY IPO ACQUISITIONS. WE ARE GIVING AWAY AN IMPORTANT TREASURE UNDER A CORRUPTION-RIDDEN PROCESS. JOB
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Post by mzee on Jul 8, 2008 11:41:22 GMT 3
We said that the deal could die anytime.
Kimunya, Kibaki and co are just about to do it.
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