|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 5:40:51 GMT 3
I know most of you think this is a crazy idea that is unlikely to happen but the way things are going, it might be the only scenario come 2012 especially now that UK and WSR's cases are going on. Lets look at the current political scenario in Kenya and analyze it briefly. Be patient, take your time and try to tie up different indicators of this happening as outlined below.
Currently, we have two opposite forces that would wish to succeed Kibaki ; ODM and the G-7 alliance. Both have leaders that could potentially offer powerful presidential contenders with Raila being the most probable ODM candidate while the latter group is still being fabricated with no clear head to run against Raila. As this alliance grapples with modalities of selecting their point-man, other notable hopefuls like Martha Karua and Raphael Tuju are busy building their teams and strategies of garnering the post.
We already know why G-7 is struggling to stay afloat; stop Raila from attaining presidency. That is their main and perhaps only agenda and the sooner we Kenyans realize this, the more you will agree with me that a probable Tuju vs. Raila duel is on the way. Looking at the group whose main heavyweights are Ruto and Uhuru from a voting blocks point of view, it is clear from a narrow point of perspective that the battle royale for the G-7 ticket will be between these two as the other members do not have a near complete tribal 'kingpinship' and votes to beat the duo, if I may put it that way. For example, Eugene Wamwala, a possible frontrunner does not have a considerable following in his western homecourt. Same as ZIPAPA at the cost and Magara in Kisii. Kalonzo Musyoka can easily garner all Ukambani votes, but the block is not at large as UK or WSR's, so in a race against the latter two, he will most likely be third. Note that in the current G-7 fabric, a key requirement for their success would be to garner significant votes from central and the rift valley while the other regions could just fill in the threshold votes as required by the constitution.
Therefore, the choice of their flag bearer will be dependent on their appeal to the two voting blocks. Judging from the last general elections, the Kalenjin community can support one who is not their own, but since independence, Kikuyus, cannot be dissuaded to vote for an outsider en mass. Therefore, the alliance may most likely opt for someone other that Ruto given that with Ruto's support, the large Kalenjin vote would be easily bagged.
On the other hand, with ICC cases occupying UK and WSR's minds, it is likely that they will opt out of the big ticket more so due to the fact that since independence, Kenya has only been ruled by either Kikuyus or a Kalenjin and I believe that in the minds of the other alliance members, they would not want to let this 'toss-up' presidency continue. Therefore, it is highly likely that they would withdraw their support would this happen. It is also clear that non of these leaders have a widespread following throughout the country as they are perceived to be mere tribal kingpins hence cannot win an election on their own.
However, it is also likely that UK and WSR will make a deal on their own to support either of them and given that they possess large voting blocks, either of them can easily garner the ticket. This could be challenging though given that they may not have the threshold votes across as constitutionally required to gain presidency. However, if they hoodwink the other members of the alliance to deliver a few votes here and their from their respective blocks, they can succeed. I am seeing this being the most probable approach that UK and WSR will opt for if they choose to have such a deal. This is perhaps why they are keen on selecting regional kingpins who are more likely to deliver the largest number of votes as opposed to being mere ideologically similar. Already, there are talks of replacing Magara with Ongeri as the former does not have a considerable following in his home turf. However, Ongeri too has no influence in the larger Kisii community. Infact, he has never retained his constituency seat. He almost always alternates with Hezron Manduku after every 5 years.
It is already clear that Kalonzo would rather have his colleagues hand him the ticket rather than going through primaries, a sign that he already knows that he cannot be a ticket bearer based on numbers alone. Although Eugene could be a more likable candidate, the other members of G-7 are not ready to hand him the ticket as he is considered politically naive. The other members of the alliance are not likely to be considered for the post.
In case, Martha decides to go it alone, the G-7 alliance may not wish to field any other person other than UK so as to at least get the Kikuyu block and this will basically hand over the presidency to Raila. Further, handing UK the ticket could spell doom to the alliance as no sound non- Kikuyu would wish to have another Kikuyu president take over right after another. So UK is out of the picture in a scenario where Martha runs. If Ruto on the other hand is the the touch bearer, then he will likely lose the kikuyu vote to Martha as house of Mumbi will not vote for an outsider. This will be a precarious position that the alliance does not want to happen as it may hand over the leadership to Raila. The same scenario will occur if Kalonzo or Eugene are the presidential candidates. In short, the greatest headache amongst the alliance members is the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential results given that non of them for certain can win the election under the present political situation. They may have assembled perhaps the biggest voting block but, they cannot be 100 % certain of a presidential win against Raila and it is my believe that they do not want to take any risks. They are therefore obliged to select a leader who has a greatest change of beating Raila with no uncertainty at all costs.
Now enter Raphael Tuju. Kenyans may have been hoodwinked by the media to believe that Tuju is being fronted by Kibaki to slice the Luo vote come 2012 so that the G-7 alliance can find it easy to win the elections. I want to state that we all know, including Tuju himself that this will not happen. From past elections, the lakeside vote will only go where the Oginga clan decides and the scenario is unlikely to change. The real reason why Tuju is in the race is one - To get the G-7 ticket. Kikuyus hate Raila to the letter. Same as the Kalenjins. Some sections of Luhya legislatures believe that Raila is taking them for a ride, Kalonzo thinks Raila prevented his miracle presidency, former president and particularly the Kanu diehards believe that if Raila ascends to state house, an ensuing revenge mission will occur. The list goes on an on.
The only chance and only option that the alliance will have that can beat Tinga is to have only Tuju and no other candidate within the group go against Raila. Even if Martha was to run, Tuju will most likely get all other votes other than Luo Nyanza, Central and part of Nairobi. This is the only certain route to preventing a Tinga presidency and perhaps the death of the Odinga dynasty in the Kenyan political scene. It will also be a clear point to the Luo community that the G-7 alliance are not against them, but against the Odinga dominance in the Luo politics.
It is my believe that this strategy is already being worked on by the alliance and in the next few months, it will come into fruition. If it does, Kenyans, would perhaps be subjected to the most exhilarating election come 2012. By subsaharanite. (subsaharan.worpress.com)
|
|
|
|
Post by savekenya011 on Sept 15, 2011 5:49:13 GMT 3
I know most of you think this is a crazy idea that is unlikely to happen but the way things are going, the only scenario come 2012 especially now that UK an it might bed WSR's cases are going on. Lets look at the current political scenario in Kenya and analyze it briefly. Be patient, take your time and try to tie up different indicators of this happening as outlined below. CRIASLY?then why do you mis-title the thread as "it is confirmed..." then proceed to write a whole essay of YOUR OPINION!!!!!!!!!In jukwaa we state it as it is.Kama ni opinion you politely indicate it as IYHO!!!!!Na kama ni facts you state them as facts and quote references!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 5:55:08 GMT 3
wacha kulia, lower your tone. A title is a title.
|
|
|
|
Post by einstein on Sept 15, 2011 6:11:38 GMT 3
wacha kulia, lower your tone. A title is a title. No, you had better listen to lady savekenya011! |
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 6:20:37 GMT 3
Stop hating, stop bleating. Read the title again.
|
|
|
|
Post by einstein on Sept 15, 2011 6:36:30 GMT 3
Stop hating, stop bleating. Read the title again. No, you had better listen to lady savekenya011! |
|
|
|
Post by mzee on Sept 15, 2011 9:45:56 GMT 3
I know most of you think this is a crazy idea that is unlikely to happen but the way things are going, it might be the only scenario come 2012 especially now that UK and WSR's cases are going on. Lets look at the current political scenario in Kenya and analyze it briefly. Be patient, take your time and try to tie up different indicators of this happening as outlined below. Currently, we have two opposite forces that would wish to succeed Kibaki ; ODM and the G-7 alliance. Both have leaders that could potentially offer powerful presidential contenders with Raila being the most probable ODM candidate while the latter group is still being fabricated with no clear head to run against Raila. As this alliance grapples with modalities of selecting their point-man, other notable hopefuls like Martha Karua and Raphael Tuju are busy building their teams and strategies of garnering the post. We already know why G-7 is struggling to stay afloat; stop Raila from attaining presidency. That is their main and perhaps only agenda and the sooner we Kenyans realize this, the more you will agree with me that a probable Tuju vs. Raila duel is on the way. Looking at the group whose main heavyweights are Ruto and Uhuru from a voting blocks point of view, it is clear from a narrow point of perspective that the battle royale for the G-7 ticket will be between these two as the other members do not have a near complete tribal 'kingpinship' and votes to beat the duo, if I may put it that way. For example, Eugene Wamwala, a possible frontrunner does not have a considerable following in his western homecourt. Same as ZIPAPA at the cost and Magara in Kisii. Kalonzo Musyoka can easily garner all Ukambani votes, but the block is not at large as UK or WSR's, so in a race against the latter two, he will most likely be third. Note that in the current G-7 fabric, a key requirement for their success would be to garner significant votes from central and the rift valley while the other regions could just fill in the threshold votes as required by the constitution. Therefore, the choice of their flag bearer will be dependent on their appeal to the two voting blocks. Judging from the last general elections, the Kalenjin community can support one who is not their own, but since independence, Kikuyus, cannot be dissuaded to vote for an outsider en mass. Therefore, the alliance may most likely opt for someone other that Ruto given that with Ruto's support, the large Kalenjin vote would be easily bagged. On the other hand, with ICC cases occupying UK and WSR's minds, it is likely that they will opt out of the big ticket more so due to the fact that since independence, Kenya has only been ruled by either Kikuyus or a Kalenjin and I believe that in the minds of the other alliance members, they would not want to let this 'toss-up' presidency continue. Therefore, it is highly likely that they would withdraw their support would this happen. It is also clear that non of these leaders have a widespread following throughout the country as they are perceived to be mere tribal kingpins hence cannot win an election on their own. However, it is also likely that UK and WSR will make a deal on their own to support either of them and given that they possess large voting blocks, either of them can easily garner the ticket. This could be challenging though given that they may not have the threshold votes across as constitutionally required to gain presidency. However, if they hoodwink the other members of the alliance to deliver a few votes here and their from their respective blocks, they can succeed. I am seeing this being the most probable approach that UK and WSR will opt for if they choose to have such a deal. This is perhaps why they are keen on selecting regional kingpins who are more likely to deliver the largest number of votes as opposed to being mere ideologically similar. Already, there are talks of replacing Magara with Ongeri as the former does not have a considerable following in his home turf. However, Ongeri too has no influence in the larger Kisii community. Infact, he has never retained his constituency seat. He almost always alternates with Hezron Manduku after every 5 years. It is already clear that Kalonzo would rather have his colleagues hand him the ticket rather than going through primaries, a sign that he already knows that he cannot be a ticket bearer based on numbers alone. Although Eugene could be a more likable candidate, the other members of G-7 are not ready to hand him the ticket as he is considered politically naive. The other members of the alliance are not likely to be considered for the post. In case, Martha decides to go it alone, the G-7 alliance may not wish to field any other person other than UK so as to at least get the Kikuyu block and this will basically hand over the presidency to Raila. Further, handing UK the ticket could spell doom to the alliance as no sound non- Kikuyu would wish to have another Kikuyu president take over right after another. So UK is out of the picture in a scenario where Martha runs. If Ruto on the other hand is the the touch bearer, then he will likely lose the kikuyu vote to Martha as house of Mumbi will not vote for an outsider. This will be a precarious position that the alliance does not want to happen as it may hand over the leadership to Raila. The same scenario will occur if Kalonzo or Eugene are the presidential candidates. In short, the greatest headache amongst the alliance members is the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential results given that non of them for certain can win the election under the present political situation. They may have assembled perhaps the biggest voting block but, they cannot be 100 % certain of a presidential win against Raila and it is my believe that they do not want to take any risks. They are therefore obliged to select a leader who has a greatest change of beating Raila with no uncertainty at all costs. Now enter Raphael Tuju. Kenyans may have been hoodwinked by the media to believe that Tuju is being fronted by Kibaki to slice the Luo vote come 2012 so that the G-7 alliance can find it easy to win the elections. I want to state that we all know, including Tuju himself that this will not happen. From past elections, the lakeside vote will only go where the Oginga clan decides and the scenario is unlikely to change. The real reason why Tuju is in the race is one - To get the G-7 ticket. Kikuyus hate Raila to the letter. Same as the Kalenjins. Some sections of Luhya legislatures believe that Raila is taking them for a ride, Kalonzo thinks Raila prevented his miracle presidency, former president and particularly the Kanu diehards believe that if Raila ascends to state house, an ensuing revenge mission will occur. The list goes on an on. The only chance and only option that the alliance will have that can beat Tinga is to have only Tuju and no other candidate within the group go against Raila. Even if Martha was to run, Tuju will most likely get all other votes other than Luo Nyanza, Central and part of Nairobi. This is the only certain route to preventing a Tinga presidency and perhaps the death of the Odinga dynasty in the Kenyan political scene. It will also be a clear point to the Luo community that the G-7 alliance are not against them, but against the Odinga dominance in the Luo politics. It is my believe that this strategy is already being worked on by the alliance and in the next few months, it will come into fruition. If it does, Kenyans, would perhaps be subjected to the most exhilarating election come 2012. By subsaharanite. ( subsaharan.worpress.com) Why do I have a feeling you would like to advertise "subsaharan.worpress.com" than write anything of substance. |
|
|
|
Post by phil on Sept 15, 2011 11:18:16 GMT 3
subsaharaniteWhile I do not want to be seen as to predicting the run-off of the presidential election, you get carried away by emotions in your piece above. Tuju himself has declared that he is not from any tribe and his candidacy is not premised on any ethnic considerations. G-7 on the other hand is struggling to morph from the KKK alliance that they mooted ostensibly to deny Raila votes from their ethnic blocks. Apart from not being wanted to be seen as Kibaki's puppet, this is precisely what Tuju is trying to run away from Secondly, going back to basics, can Tuju really attain some of the minimum threshold required by the constitution to be elected president? Can he for instance attain 25% of votes in 23 or more counties of Kenya? I seriously doubt this and wonder if Tuju would beat Kalonzo hands-down in the absence of Ruto and Uhuru in a straight nomination exercise within G-7. Thirdly, in the unlikely event that Tuju emerges as the G-7 candidate and that he eventually makes it to the run-off, I can guarantee you Tuju will not give an ODM candidate (not necessarily Raila) any sleepless nights. Comparing ODM and PNU is like comparing day and night. As a mass movement, people like Ruto found their voice in ODM and eventually in national politics after capitalizing on his undeserved selection into the ODM Pentagon. Previously before this, he was an non-entity just like Tuju is today. As a matter of fact, you also fail to appreciate most of the other peripheral candidates (akina Martha, Muite, Ngilu, Wetangula, etc) are more inclined to support an ODM candidate rather than a PNU/G-7 candidate in a runoff. This is also consideringthat just like G-7 is doing, ODM also retains the right to plot pre-election pacts with other disenchanted political parties like KANU and others. What's more, there is no guarantee that if Ruto or Uhuru run or stay away from the polls then their Kalenjin / Kikuyu tribes will automatically vote for them or whoever they opt to back. To conclude, even if Kibaki himself were to seek a third term, after miraculously amending the constitution to allow him to do this, he will not defeat Raila in a free and fair election in this country. Nothing personal against Kibaki, but even for him to be president after having failed on two previous occasions, Raila had to step in to create a President Kibaki. At that time, your tribal kingpins Uhuru and Ruto were Kibaki's opponents. We all know what happened and we need not repeat it here but at least lets learn from history.
|
|
|
|
Post by kipfirimbi on Sept 15, 2011 12:59:42 GMT 3
Sabsahara...
Ruto will be on the ballot box come 2012, yeye mwenyewe amesema, reading from headteacher even muthamaki will be, bearing in mind that he is flying miles away from home to " a kangaroo" court in hague hehehehe!!. Can you ammend your title to accommodate such. i dont think it will be an all "luo affair"!!! Never is never will be.
|
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 16, 2011 5:27:00 GMT 3
To Mzee,
I get more hits on my blog from other boards and sources so I am in no way advertising my blog. besides, I dont gain anything, its free and no advertisements are on it.
To Phil,
First, I am not emotional, this analysis show no emotions to any of the candidates.
Secondly, the Kenyan political machination have it that when in need, a candidate will forget his 'ideals' and take a position that would ultimately give him an edge over his opponents or till he gains what he wants (example, Raila joining Kanu a few years leading to the 2002 elections, Uhuru, abandoning his KANU colleagues in ODM to 'save' his butt in Gatundu and avoid a Kikuyu revolt against him, Kalonzo, miraculously sanctifying the 2007 stolen election in a bid to gain his VP post, e.t.c) Tuju is no different, if the G-7 offer him their mantle, he will be singing at the top of his voice on how diverse the group is which it is anyway. I repeat, the G-7 alliance is not a tribalistic alliance, its a conglomerate of tribal chiefdoms with a common course: preventing Raila from gaining state house and if it takes rallying behind Tuju to achieve this, they will do it if they cannot do it on their own.
Fourth, there will be no run-off on my scenario as Tuju will beat Tinga outright.
I am not supporting any presidential candidate, I am merely analyzing the current situation and from my analyses, I am deriving the most probable happening that we may see. You may think that peripheral candidates like Martha, Muite, Wetangula are for ODM, well be it, the question is what role will they play in ODM and how many votes do you think they will add to the Odinga Camp? Do you think Martha will pull even a third of central votes to the Odinga camp? Remember Nyaga in the last elections. Did Raila even get 10% of Nyaga's constituency presidential votes? Do you think Muite is a political heavyweight recognized in central? How much influence does he have amongst central legislatures? Wetangula, does he even have a following in western? How about Ngilu? Further, do you think Raila is going to trade posts with them and replace some of his stalwart team players like Mudavadi? I doubt. And these so called peripheral candidates will not accept to join his bandwagon with no substantial goodies.
Yes, Tuju can get the 25 % threshold in 23 counties if all the other G-7 alliance members rally behind him. If you read carefully, I have stated that this scenario will occur if Martha is also in the race whereby she will most likely claw the central vote.
Lastly, Raila is not unbeatable and you can be rest assured that if the G-7 alliance fronts Tuju, this will occur. Further, I have not compared PNU with ODM herein so leave it out of question.
Do not look at Tuju's candidature from his face value, bear in mind that a large number of legislatures within the G-7 fabric have one goal; beat Raila and if it takes all rallying behind Tuju, they will do it.
To Kipfirimbi,
Just because Ruto states that he will be in the ballot box, does not mean he will be in the ballot box. This is one of the many strategies that the G-7 alliance is using to disguise their ultimate plan. Remember, even Eugene (David) has vowed to floor Goliath (Raila) but we all know that it will be highly unlikely that he will view for presidency.
In all, lets remember that so far, we can only be certain of one presidential candidate- Tinga, his opponent(s) are still unknown as they are still planning on the best way possible to down him.
|
|
|
|
Post by einstein on Sept 16, 2011 5:54:24 GMT 3
To Mzee, I get more hits on my blog from other boards and sources so I am in no way advertising my blog. besides, I dont gain anything, its free and no advertisements are on it. To Phil, First, I am not emotional, this analysis show no emotions to any of the candidates. Secondly, the Kenyan political machination have it that when in need, a candidate will forget his 'ideals' and take a position that would ultimately give him an edge over his opponents or till he gains what he wants (example, Raila joining Kanu a few years leading to the 2002 elections, Uhuru, abandoning his KANU colleagues in ODM to 'save' his butt in Gatundu and avoid a Kikuyu revolt against him, Kalonzo, miraculously sanctifying the 2007 stolen election in a bid to gain his VP post, e.t.c) Tuju is no different, if the G-7 offer him their mantle, he will singing at the top of his voice on how diverse the group is which it is anyway. I repeat, the G-7 alliance is not a tribalistic alliance, its a conglomerate of tribal chiefdoms with a common course: preventing Raila from gaining state house and if it takes rallying against Tuju to achieve this, they will do it if they cannot do it on their own. Fourth, there will be no run-off on my scenario as Tuju will beat Tinga outright. I am not supporting any presidential candidate, I am merely analyzing the current situation and from my analyses, I am making the most probable happening that we may see. You may think that peripheral candidates like Martha, Muite, Wetangula are for ODM, well be it, the question is what role will they play in ODM and how many votes do you think they will add to the Odinga Camp? Do you think Martha will pull even a third of central votes to the Odinga camp? Remember Nyaga in the last elections. Did Raila even get 10% of Nyaga's constituency presidential votes? Do you think Muite is a political heavyweight recognized in central? How much influence does he have amongst central legislatures? Wetangula, does he even have a following in western? How about Ngilu? Further, do you think Raila is going to trade posts with them and replace some of his stalwart team players like Mudavadi? I doubt. And these so called peripheral candidates will not accept to join his bandwagon with no substantial goodies. Yes, Tuju can get the 25 % threshold in 23 counties if all the other G-7 alliance members rally behind him. If you read carefully, I have stated that this scenario will occur if Martha is also in the race whereby she will most likely claw the central vote. Lastly, Raila is not unbeatable and you can be rest assured that if the G-7 alliance fronts Tuju, this will occur. Further, I have not compared PNU with ODM herein so leave it out of question. Do not look at Tuju's candidature from his face value, bear in mind that a large number of legislatures within the G-7 fabric have one goal; beat Raila and if it takes all rallying behind Ruto, they will do it. To Kipfirimbi, Just because Ruto states that he will be in the ballot box, does not mean he will be in the ballot box. This is one of the many strategies that the G-7 alliance is using to disguise their ultimate plan. Remember, even Eugene (David) has vowed to floor Goliath (Raila) but we all know that it will be highly unlikely that he will view for presidency. In all, lets remember that so far, we can only be certain of one presidential candidate- Tinga, his opponent(s) are still unknown as they are still planning on the best way possible to down him. You are no different from our own Jukwaa-based pundits who have predicted for us time and again the outcome of certain events in the country despite some of us telling them the opposite will be the case come crunch time! And you know what, such pundits have had to constantly swallow humble pies when reality hit them! In case of doubt, just ask one Jukwaa over-guru by the name Kamalet! We look forward to dumping you into the same trash-heap with Kamalet after next year's elections! We shall be right here on Jukwaa to witness that dumping ceremony. It is your right to campaign for Raphael, but please DON'T sell us crap. We are used to it from the above-mentioned 'Jukwaa guru'! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2011 6:24:24 GMT 3
Tuju is definitely not Raila's checkmating piece for Nyanza
Updated 9 hr(s) 55 min(s) ago
By Ken Opande
A lot has been said concerning Tuju's declaration that he would be vying for the presidency in 2012.
But there is a narrow interpretation that his declaration to contest is a scheme to stop Prime Minister Raila Odinga from bagging the entire Nyanza vote.
There can never be a rustic logic of analysis for one to believe like this kind.
First and foremost, Nyanza Province has six counties, with three distinctive ethnicities.
The Luo, Abagusii of Kisii and Nyamira counties and Migori County’s Kuria, the latter two have exercised a potentially diverse voting pattern different from that of the Luo who characteristically voteen bloc.
Therefore, arguments that Raila will bag the entire Nyanza vote, which requires clipping by Tuju, is cheap and twisted reasoning.
To understand the paradox of Raila and Tuju, let’s reminisce. In 2002, the duo came to Parliament on the National Rainbow Coalition party through Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
They remained members of LDP until they parted ways during the 2005 referendum campaign.
Whereas Raila formed the backbone of the Orange camp that fervently campaigned against the discredited Wako Draft, leading to his ouster from Cabinet, Tuju joined status quo proponents through the Banana camp that supported the flawed constitution draft.
Raila’s reform-primed image comes out as an ideologue of conflicting ideologies — sometimes a primeval social democrat and at times Calvinist-capitalist, while Tuju’s espoused ideology remains a matter of exploratory conjecture.
The fact that Tuju is a Luo does not mean he is vying to shatter Raila’s chances.
Already he has clearly stated without demonstrating that he is pushing his candidacy as a non-ethnic demagogue. Which is not a bad idea?
Ethnic stereotypes
But strangely this can be a hollow plot to sell, for the criminality of ethnicity usually lies in the politician’s limited capacity to appreciate the meaning of one’s ethnic group.
Tuju is a member of an ethnic group, the Luo.
What he should have done was sell his candidacy as a member of the Luo ethnic group but dispel the bigoted stereotypes that have bandied on the Luo.
It goes without saying that Tuju’s shot is kited with unmarked frontiers in mind.
Such a constituency of voters is non-existent in Kenya.
For by denouncing his ethnic group, he seems to give credence to the frugal and extravagant stereotypes that have been created by certain ethnic groups to malign other ethnic groups.
Already, the public is awash with mountains of derogatory sentiment and statements associated with our ethnicities.
And as a former advisor to the president on matters of ethnicity and media, he should have known the dangers of criminalising his ethnic group.
What the public needs to know is how his advice to the president has helped foster ethnic cohesion.
The country has not witnessed any shift in terms of policy on how matters of negative ethnicity, ethnic hatred, bigotry, chauvinism; and suspicions have been addressed.
Tuju owes us an explanation on how his three-year stay in the office has helped change this arrangement to the betterment of this country.
To be fair to him, ethnic disintegration is a historical phenomenon that dates back to colonial times, to which he could not be party.
But his failure to influence and initiate change in this area is conspicuous, which makes him vulnerable to the criticism that lack of strategy and tact gelled his service.
Kenya is yet to realise ethnic integration; ethnicity still determines who gets what job in public service; reconciliation among communities that fought during 2007-2008 post-election violence has remained elusive; and disparities with regard to national resource allocations still fuel tensions amongst different communities.
The tempest in governance is borne out of the crystallised mediocrity that underlies our leadership garb, and if Tuju can organise his politics different from the sooty appendage of our current political elite the better.
The emergence of a presidential candidate should be viewed in terms of increased democratic space for people to pursue their ambitions.
That is what the new Constitution guarantees.
And Tuju’s candidacy should be judged on that basis, rather than the mundane and parochial chip of defining one’s ambitions in terms of his/her ethnic mass.
If Tuju is vying because Raila has to be contained by a fellow Luo, then that would be one of the most myopic contests of our present times.
But if Tuju has to be embraced because of his leadership visions and ideologies, then he needs the country’s attention.
But first a fecund body of his policies needs to distinguish him from the sterile field of ideas by other presidential contenders.
Writer is a Business Executive with The Standard Group in Kakamega.
|
|
|
|
Post by job on Sept 17, 2011 1:56:17 GMT 3
Another Presidential candidate, youthful at 27 years, Kingwa Kamenchu of Oxford University, throws her hat in the ring.
|
|
|
|
Post by mank on Sept 17, 2011 8:59:23 GMT 3
It would be interesting to hear Kíngwa Kamenchú's policy agenda. With this youtube clip she leaves the impression of a naive child jumping for what she knows nothing about. On the positive side she advances to the youth the idea that it is alright for them too to dream high leadership. Who knows, she might inspire an Obama ... or could she be one in a shell? Time will tell.
|
|
|
|
Post by phil on Sept 17, 2011 13:23:08 GMT 3
To Phil, First, I am not emotional, this analysis show no emotions to any of the candidates. Secondly, the Kenyan political machination have it that when in need, a candidate will forget his 'ideals' and take a position that would ultimately give him an edge over his opponents or till he gains what he wants (example, Raila joining Kanu a few years leading to the 2002 elections, Uhuru, abandoning his KANU colleagues in ODM to 'save' his butt in Gatundu and avoid a Kikuyu revolt against him, Kalonzo, miraculously sanctifying the 2007 stolen election in a bid to gain his VP post, e.t.c) NDP voluntarily dissolved itself after a NDC passed the resolution and after protracted negotiations with old KANU to create a new KANU. KANU was unwilling to change or practice democracy and progressive forces within it trooped out enmass via the Rainbow Alliance which eventually gave Kibaki a victory in presidential polls. Uhuru first abandoned his official opposition leader position to support the incumbent. A world's first. Uhuru was not in ODM-K per-se. Uhuru was and still is theoretical KANU chairman. To this day he is still dilly-dallying with PNU for partisan ethnic reasons. These are the facts. Some people never forgot their ideals. MOUs were signed and promises were publicly made (eg. new constitution in 100 days). This did not happen and eventually we know what all these shenanigans resulted in. Thus, I do not see how you want to draw similarities in these historic events with the possibility that Tuju will land the top seat as a compromise candidate. G-7, as you well know, is precisely the reason for the long reform struggle. They are more inclined to support a status quoist than a reformist that Tuju claims to be. What? Ati G-7 is not tribalistics? What then does the KKK which gave birth to G-7 stand for? Ku Klux Klan perhaps? Despite being the senior most PNU campaigner from Nyanza in 2007, the party never nominated Tuju to parliament. It chose to give the nomination slots to others. It took Kibaki to use his presidential powers to irregularly create for him and professor Kibwana some nondescript positions at Harambee House but otherwise there was never any expression of gratitude to Tuju for standing up to campaign for PNU in an extremely hostile political environment. So the big question is what has changed now? What will inspire elements within PNU to support Tuju now? You dream that Uhuru, Ruto, Eugene and worst of all Kalonzo, will swallow their pride since they have all along been paving the way for Tuju and that they are more than willing to give up their own ambitions for the sake of a greenhorn who you imagine can beat Raila? You are living in dreamland. I wont wake you up. Everyone among the G-7 is busy building their own political parties and none is willing to dissolve for the sake of supporting the other. To imagine that they will eventually say, let's leave it for Tuju is stretching Jukwaa's imagination too far. On what basis my friend? We've been through this many times before and even as late as August 2007 people were saying Raila in unelectable and Kibaki was beaming with confidence. Let's learn from history. What I am asking you to clarify: Are you claiming that Tuju 2011/2 a more formidable candidate than an incumbent Kibaki in 2006/7, someone who was beaten at the ballot fair and square by Raila in the last elections? My view is that even in PNU alliance nominations, Tuju will find it extremely difficult to overcome a challenge from Kalonzo, let alone Ruto or Uhuru. He may just beat Eugene. You need to learn a lot about ODM my friend. This is a party that has tried to change the status quo. It is a party that always want to be seen as representing the face of Kenya. ODM did not just nominate a losing Nyagah to parliament and to cabinet, it also did the same for others from different parties and different regions, including nominating to parliament a Muslim Imam straight from the mosque. This is what you apparently do not know about ODM. It is about being nationalistic, sharing the half loaf equitably and practicing what it preached during the campaigns. In contrast and quite unashamedly, PNU's lion share went to ONE region. Top positions are reserved for people of a common gene. Does PNU ever remember its core defenders like Moody Awori? Joseph Munyao? Kipruto Arap Kirwa? Simeon Nyachae? Of course they cannot because simply these people are not worth paying attention to now that we are the table feasting. Desperate Musikari Kombo had to nominate himself to parliament using FORD-K. But remember all of these people lost their political positions because they supported Kibaki and PNU. Do they deserve anything from PNU, now that you question ODM nominees like Nyagah? You amaze me because you believe non-entities like Eugene Wamalwa and Omingo Magara add a lot of value to a united G-7, while not wanting to believe people like proven reformist like Ngilu, Muite or Wetangula deliver zero value addition to ODM. Surely, is this a line worth debating? Do you really understand why these provisions are there in the constitution to begin with? Why must someone who considers himself a serious presidential candidate require the support of others to achieve the bare minimum qualification criteria? Is that individual a bankable candidate politically? Are Kenyan voters that stupid to be used by individuals to satisfy their selfish political ambitions? Some scenarios you publish here can not stand the test of time. Which counties are those that you confidently believe Tuju can garner 25%? Care to publish the data here, or you just want to propagate impossible theories? Of course ALL candidates are beatable. All one requires is to package and market oneself better than the leading candidate. D you think G-7 or even Tuju himself are doing that any time soon? Granted Raila has his short comings. But so does all the rest. If the present Kenyan voter believes Raila is not fit to be president then certainly they will not vote for him. They do not need G-7 to tell them that. |
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Sept 17, 2011 17:40:44 GMT 3
Phil
Why do you write like it is martians that read Jukwaa and some of us never lived in Kenya?
Just what was NDP? NDP was nothing more than Raila and like sheep to slaughter, he led the all the Luo MPs in NDP to Kanu promising them that he would finally deliver them the presidency. Like the fool (and later history proves this!) he got them ministerial posts and when he realised he had been shafted, he too the high road to defection....not back to NDP (that piece of cloth had been soiled!) but a new vehicle called LDP.
Try not to twist history!
|
|
|
|
Post by politicalmaniac on Sept 17, 2011 22:24:39 GMT 3
What history has been twisted?
Fact is without the strategic marriage and divorce between NDP and KANU, kipkorios would have managed to pull out a successful "Project muthamaki" to "succeed" him. Everyone admits that muthamaki was nothing but a stooge a marionette, who would have acquiesced to baba na mama demands.
But How things have changed!
Now muthamaki is an accused arsonist, murderer and torturer.
We are all waiting for him to appear for confirmation hearing and on Dec 24th, ululations and tears of joy will be shed by all when he will be bundled up to the full court for a real hearing with live witnesses who will state what this inept (typos everytime!!), grass smoker, perpetually inebriated land grabbing foul mouthed thug, born with a silver spoon his mouth (hata kma siste yake ana kanya!!) will have to answer!!
How things have changed.
His father fought for the liberation of the country and was rewarded with the highest office in the land. Muthamaki is going to be accused and perhaps convicted, not of liberation and furtherance of democracy and freedom, but of heinous crimes against humanity.
muthamaki may be a hero to you.
But his political persona is damaged beyond repair.
As 2012 becomes a yr when muthamaki regrets why he was born, someone somewhere will be thanking God!!
All that LDP/NDP saga is water under the bridge
|
|
|
|
Post by mwalimumkuu on Sept 18, 2011 0:01:21 GMT 3
|
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 18, 2011 3:05:41 GMT 3
Einstein,
I'm not a political pundit. I am a political analyst.
To Katurekebaara,
In my analysis, I did not state that Tuju will be Raila's checkmate in Nyanza. In fact, I stated that Tuju will get votes from other areas other than Nyanza and Nairobi.
Now thanks for pointing out Opanga's article. A few years ago, many of you will remember Opanga's stint as a respected political commentator working for Nation newspapers. Did you remember what threw him out ? He lost credibility when it was discerned that he had been compromised by the Moi's regime. He may have been bribed or not , the fact is, we discovered that he too can be influenced. Since then, I always read his articles with a pinch of salt and I never take them at gospel truth since I doubt if he is absolutely neutral
Now what he has written in the article is merely a textbook description of what an Ideal leader is. Further he has pointed out to the electorate that we should select leaders based on their political ideologies as opposed to their tribes. This message is very correct and I applaud his bravery for doing so, however we both know and Opanga knows that in an immature democratic society that we are in, people do not select leaders as a result of their ideologies.
We choose people based of the prevailing euphoric sentiments, that are more often than tribal. It is not an anomaly, its just that we would rather stick to someone closer to us so that perhaps we would derive some protection or help from them when in need. This has been the norm in most poverty stricken states. Even large democracies like India with a large poor population are riddled with bribery cases during elections.
Emerging economies like Malaysia whose leadership is in the hands of an amorphous conglomeration of several independent parties is rive with tribal innuendos as a result of the tribal nature of these individual political outfits. Thats why, they can pass laws that accords the so called ethnic Malays, special privileges that can only be given to minority communities in other mature democracies given that these so called ethnic Malays account for over 60% of the population. They have in turn ensued skewed resource allocations just because the ruling alliance is largely from from one ethnic community.
Let me remind you that the Kenyan elections will not be determined by people with computers or people who read news but rather by poverty stricken country folks whose casting decisions are often not based on political ideologies but rather on the prevailing conditions at that juncture. They are the ones who will be at polling stations six in the morning while the younger more enlightened group will be either too sleepy, drunk or both to go vote. In most cases, the old folks in the villages always have their opinions on particular candidates and in most cases hard to convince.
Okwendo's article therefore does not reflect the reality at the ground, rather, it describes an ideal situation. I also wish people voted for leaders as a result of their ideologies. I also wish to inform you that our leaders have dynamic ideologies that take a static nature in very short and transient political time. Take UK for example. The first time I listened to him in a political gathering in his home turf in Gatundu, his words and demeanor exemplified a well educated individual with superbly good leadership qualities with an untainted past. In the few years he was the head of the opposition in the Kenyan parliament (2003-2005), he vilified Kibaki. In a meeting he had with the former American ambassador, he gave a negative criticism to the then Kibaki government. When it looked like he was going to lose his Gatundu seat as a result of his involvement in the Orange movement in its formative days, he forgot the political Vendetta he had against Kibaki, instead he sprinted back to him for political protection. We have seen him mutate into a different animal -displaying inexplicable anger on Camera, like a toddler, reverting to the age old unimportant statements against the Prime Minister when he questioned the latter's stand on the president's unilateral decision of appointing key leaders in several institutions early this year. Up to know, we still do not know UK's ideologies. Better still, can you give me a hint? How about Ruto's, or even Tuju's. The only leader who has displayed some form of ideology is Odinga. Even Martha Karua has not. She pretends to speak for the people but when Kenya was burning down in the last general elections, she was the most notable Kibaki pawn at KICC with her sharp instructions to Kivuitu on what he should do.
Let me conclude by stating that presidential election in Kenya will not be won by ideologies, it will be won by numbers, and whoever has tally high enough will be the occupier of state house.
Phil, I will get back to you later.
|
|
|
|
Post by phil on Sept 18, 2011 12:43:55 GMT 3
Phil Why do you write like it is martians that read Jukwaa and some of us never lived in Kenya? Just what was NDP? NDP was nothing more than Raila and like sheep to slaughter, he led the all the Luo MPs in NDP to Kanu promising them that he would finally deliver them the presidency. Like the fool (and later history proves this!) he got them ministerial posts and when he realised he had been shafted, he too the high road to defection....not back to NDP (that piece of cloth had been soiled!) but a new vehicle called LDP. Try not to twist history! What was NDP you ask? It was a Kenyan opposition party that emerged 3rd in the 1997 general elections, well ahead of SDP and FORD-K. It held its NDC which unanimously endorsed dissolution to join KANU, but only after certain negotiations took place between elders of the two parties. If you want to know the intricacies behind the KANU/NDP merger from the NDP perspective, then you are mistaken to think it was Raila who was the driving force behind this move. The late Job Omino and the late Mzee Koyo Opien, plus others like Adala Otuko were the real people who brought Raila and Moi together. Kamale, sometimes it is better to shut up and be taught history than display your ignorance for the whole of Jukwaa to see. |
|
|
|
Post by nowayhaha on Sept 18, 2011 13:18:18 GMT 3
Phil Why do you write like it is martians that read Jukwaa and some of us never lived in Kenya? Just what was NDP? NDP was nothing more than Raila and like sheep to slaughter, he led the all the Luo MPs in NDP to Kanu promising them that he would finally deliver them the presidency. Like the fool (and later history proves this!) he got them ministerial posts and when he realised he had been shafted, he too the high road to defection....not back to NDP (that piece of cloth had been soiled!) but a new vehicle called LDP. Try not to twist history! What was NDP you ask? It was a Kenyan opposition party that emerged 3rd in the 1997 general elections, well ahead of SDP and FORD-K. It held its NDC which unanimously endorsed dissolution to join KANU, but only after certain negotiations took place between elders of the two parties. If you want to know the intricacies behind the KANU/NDP merger from the NDP perspective, then you are mistaken to think it was Raila who was the driving force behind this move. The late Job Omino and the late Mzee Koyo Opien, plus others like Adala Otuko were the real people who brought Raila and Moi together. Kamale, sometimes it is better to shut up and be taught history than display your ignorance for the whole of Jukwaa to see. Phil. You are trying to say that If Raila had opted not "co-operate" with KANU which later led to the merger All N.D.P. mps would have moved to KANU without Raila or Railas blessings ? |
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 19, 2011 4:29:39 GMT 3
Phil,
From your reply I can already tell that you are an ODM sympathizer. Please be, many are. Its not a crime. Just do not eat, sleep and dream ODM all the time such that you fail to look at the dynamics going on in other political outfits.
For the second time, let me state that Odinga's choice to join KANU whether for the intention of changing it from within is nothing other than changing his political Ideal. It does not matter whether he dissolved his party and moved en mass to join KANU after negotiations which I believe did not even take place because they did not even form the so called 'New KANU.' KANU remained the same old 40 year old party with a Jogoo as their symbol and the name 'new' was not ever adopted. You can check records at the registrar's office, you will not see any party called 'New KANU'. Just because Odinga did not agree with the nomination of the party candidate that ensued him walking out does not mean that he did not change his ideals. Second even if Uhuru was not officially in ODM, remember by then it had not been registered as a political party. Just like the name states, it was still a movement and Uhuru happened to be in it.
Besides, the bone of contention is not what one did or did not do, it is their propensity to alter their ideologies depending on the prevailing political climate and to me and indeed everyone else, Uhuru's abandoning of his official opposition leader position in parliament followed by his retraction to his tribal cocoon in a bid to save his Gatundu seat is changing his ideologies. It does not matter whether he did it after resigning or not.
Second, I have not touched anything on Nyaga's nomination and political balancing, I only posed a question on the percentage oof votes Raila garnered from Nyaga's turf. I know ODM very well maybe more than you. Dont twist my story.
Further, I have not touched on PNU's side. I know all about that already. You seem to be bitter about PNU's handling of the coalition matters and sharing of crucial position in the government. Well very many people are but I did not touch on that. In my analysis, I only touched on the possibility of Tuju and Raila facing off in an election and nothing on injustices perpetrated by PNU. Save that for another day.
You seem to have rushed through my analysis too. Now I stated that if all other members of the G-7 alliance support Tuju, He will garner the threshold votes in more that 23 counties. My point still remains the same. Just because he wont garner anything in his Rarieda constituency and its environs does not mean that he wont do it in other regions with G-7 alliance support.
Again, just because you happen to be enlightened with the affairs of the country does not mean that the entire electorate is. I repeat, in most cases, the village folks determine who is elected. Not even the the youth and the schooled. And, in young democracies like ours, elected people are not always ideologically sound. How many cartoons do we have in parliament right now. How many goons and thugs do we have in parliament? Do they have any leadership qualities? Let me give you a good example, Joe Donde and Orengo stuck to their guns in 2002 and did not join the Odinga campe, these are brilliant legislatures, did the people elect them? Why didn't Orengo still do the same thing in 2007? If you really think your mere ideology will give you presidency, then perhaps PM Lumumba would have been our president right now. If you think it all about good leaders, then you giving a mere textbook definition of what a leader should be and I tell you reality is often way off from the ideal situation.
I outlined what we are likely to see. Is it possible? Yes. Is it impossible? Yes it is. Lets go back to 2001, just after KANU joined with the Odinga group. Did anybody forsee, any other party other than KANU winning the presidency? Non. But radical events played out at the right time such that it happened. So my friend, impossibles can be possible under the right circumstances.
|
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Sept 19, 2011 8:37:09 GMT 3
Subsaharanite, Phil is not just an ODM sympathizer. He represents ODM's cyber propaganda division & often comes to this (& other blogs) with 411 hot from the press as given to him at Orange House which he duly regurtitates for the e-masses. The only criticism of ODM he will stomach is that which he dishes out himself on the rare occasion when he actually questions the bigwigs at Orange House. There are a couple gems of his anti secretariat gripes in Jukwaa archives...
|
|
|
|
Post by subsaharanite on Sept 19, 2011 14:52:33 GMT 3
B6K
Thanks!
I wonder if they have a reality team. The propaganda seems to do a good job. I just hope they have a sound team of political analysts too.
|
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Sept 19, 2011 20:30:56 GMT 3
Subsaharanite, no thanks required. ALWAYS question authority, or be damned.
|
|
