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Post by okolowaka on Sept 19, 2011 20:44:48 GMT 3
...Tuju vs Kamenchu..... Kamenchu wins, becomes Kenya's first female president.....
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Post by b6k on Sept 19, 2011 21:02:28 GMT 3
Voting by looks (& gender), absolutely!
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Post by tnk on Sept 19, 2011 21:14:31 GMT 3
friends the events leading to the election of 2007 and its aftermath forever changed the way elections are held in the country unless, impunity is reined in, then we must prepare for the unthinkable much needed reforms in the judiciary, police force and key institutions are still lagging behind. the analysis and theories on the dream winning team are all interesting to read. in fact what surprises me is the sort of hostility displayed to criticism of theory anyhow my point is, unless the citizen gets a firm handle on these due processes, then we (and the processes) must be prepared to be abused over and over again by the ruling class / oligarchy or whatever we may want to call the lords of impunity. they successfully managed to steal the elections and will do it again and again. have you ever wondered why those in power never really come out here to declare their winning strategy? anybody ever heard of a beleivable strategy on how the PNU team clinched the winner (presidency)? kibaki never talked of a running mate from western, eastern or whatever, or voting blocks etc. but he did do a door to door. this game is played with high stakes at a very intricate level. there is always room for the occasional surprise, but the core positions and targets are the preserve of a select few. and if the kenyan populace prefer to keep mucking around at very low levels chasing shadows and imaginary rivals then we are all going to get stuck at that low level. basically chasing after throw away bones and killing each other over them while the "aristocrats" or oligarchy as they are sometimes called laugh at us and continue with their machinations even pre-programming how we will react to various events thinking that we are in support of or against certain individuals if you've never followed how the orange revolution has evolved just take a look at the following articles, compare wiht our own home brewed fiasco and then try and figure out how the next general elections will pan out. think seriously about the key players and what is it they really want to do with unbridled power and how much of it can they get away with. then try to bridge in the constitution, the new governance structure and role of institutions. checks and balances are awesome phrases, but we need to also evaluate the characters assigned to these posts to provide the checks and balances (are they prone to receiving cheques to have hefty balances whether it be fiscal or in form of blind allegiance/loyalty to executive). check out what happened with PLO lumumba. note that the checks and balances are legislature, executive and judiciary, looking at how positions are being filled and the character of the individuals in these positions (AG, CJ, DPP, etc etc) how many of these are giving us confidence that they will indeed provide the much needed checks and balances. so far the judiciary although internally reforming (or so we hear), we have not yet heard any significant ruling on constitutional grey area issues. anyway for those who have not yet read these materials on the first orange revolution here are some links i hope there are some people here that can provide more detail and analysis on these events and compare them with the kenyan situation. in fact reading some of that material, you can easily replace ukraine with kenya and no one would tell the difference as they say history repeats itself, and that the only thing we learn from history is that we dont (learn). provided below are several links, dont mean to inundate you with the links but its totally eerie how these events have startling similarities to what is happening and has happened in kenya remembering that this revolution started circa 2000 exploded in 2004/5 www.theorangerevolution.com/memorable quote == " The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything." Stalin == we experienced this in 2007, did we learn from history? i read this piece below in the months preceding 2007 election and was horrified to see the script replayed to the t. read it and see how it compares with events in kenya global.wisc.edu/peace/readings/supplemental-johnson-orange.pdfwww.foreignaffairs.com/articles/60620/adrian-karatnycky/ukraines-orange-revolutionthe timeline of events leading to the revolution www.rferl.org/content/article/1066936.htmlagain one can draw some similarities and then what happened after the "revolution" www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-ukraine/two_years_4218.jsphere is an interview with ukrainian president (kind of sounds like kibaki doesn't it) www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012806830.htmlbut this one here is key, the reversal - is this where we are headed when cabinet. mps and a handful of people want to derail implementation of the new constitution? pretty much the mixup that is the GCG www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june11/ukrainerev_05-10.html== lets discuss
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Post by merlin on Sept 19, 2011 22:51:10 GMT 3
PNU / G7 Alliance versus ODM
I respond to the opening article of this thread though it goes well with tnk’s latest entry.
The opening article is interesting though in my opinion too much excellent wrapping around the essential argument. I like to add the marketing options for PNU Alliance and ODM.
The PNU Alliance (or whatever name they invent for KKK) consists of three tribal voting blocs each of them marketing their product on “the presidency must be ours (our tribe)”. The perceived implications are; this will give advantages for our tribe.
However each of the owners of their voting bloc realises they are not large enough to win the presidency on their own. They need to enlarge the size of the voting bloc and are attempting to join with any other voting blocs to reach a majority voting bloc. They seem to have found each other in the KKK alliance though by doing so losing their marketing strategy of “the presidency must be ours (our tribe)”. Who is the “ours” of the majority voting bloc? The strategy of “ours” (the tribe) has to change from “tribe” into “Alliance” though this will be very difficult as the Alliance is an unknown identity for the voter – after years of tribal indoctrination by their leaders. Even when the leaders are successful in weakening the tribal identity of their voters into “Alliance” – not anymore am I a Kikuyu, Kamba, Kalenjin though I am Alliance – their voters will still relate the perceived advantages for their tribe. There can only be one president and thus only one tribe can have the presidential position. The other two tribes will feel they have less or lost the perceived advantages for their tribe.
The K’s tried to change their marketing strategy by projecting the ODM candidate for presidency as the common enemy. If she/he wins the presidency then none of the K’s will get their perceived advantages though this strategy leads them into the traditional prisoner’s dilemma. They cannot turn this in a win / lose situation because none of them will consent to losing.
The result is a situation whereby the Alliance is unable to offer advantages to their electorate. They cannot promise any advantages to the tribal voter who is going to understand this. The voters – and elders – will look somewhere else to find advantages for their vote and if tribe does not work they will explore specific issues looking for a presidential candidate which can fulfil most of their issues.
The Alliance is out and in comes the presidential candidates with promises to fulfil specific issues such as; education (number of teachers) jobs (how many to create), fight against corruption (# cases at the court) and fairness in job nominations (balance in gender, nomination process).
Already there are presidential candidates marketing specific issues such as Peter Kenneth, Raila Odinga, and newcomer Martha Karua. Maybe Raphael Tuju could be considered as well although we do not know his marketing strategy yet. It depends who is going to support him and how fast he establish his marketing strategy.
An alliance/coalition between these issues driven presidential candidates can work as they can negotiate on formal issues which they offer their electorate. We can expect coalition forming though not based on positions such as President and Vice presidency (running mate) though on written commitment on issues.
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Post by einstein on Sept 20, 2011 0:25:26 GMT 3
B6K Thanks! I wonder if they have a reality team. The propaganda seems to do a good job. I just hope they have a sound team of political analysts too. Subsaharanite,Why should you imagine you are the only political analyst out there? Just in case you've not realised by now, even the den you just became a member of a few weeks ago prides itself of its own home-grown and time-tested political analysts since its inception! Do you seriously believe yourself when you insinuate that ODM as a political party does not have a sound team of political analysts?
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 20, 2011 1:37:16 GMT 3
EINSTEIN,
I did not state that I am the only political analyst. I can also tell that your thinking is old school - You believe that the longer you are in Jukwaa, the more better you get, akin to those leaders keen to keep the old order. Open your mind, I may have been here in a different name. You are the kind of people who believe that just because Eugene or Tuju are greenhorns, they shouldn't even be considered as presidential contenders and do not have a chance to Win. Let me remind you that Obama was worse than a greenhorn but as we speak, he is the commander in chief of the world's most sophisticated and advanced state. I tell you what, minds like yours are the one who are resisting regime change in Kenya. Do not judge me by my date of membership.
Further, I did not state that ODM does not have a sound political analytic team. It was my hope that they do. As a matter of fact, they may do. The question is, are they using their results the best way possible?
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Post by einstein on Sept 20, 2011 3:48:44 GMT 3
EINSTEIN, I did not state that I am the only political analyst. I can also tell that your thinking is old school - You believe that the longer you are in Jukwaa, the more better you get, akin to those leaders kin to keep the old order. Open your mind, I may have been here in a different name. You are the kind of people who believe that just because Eugene or Tuju are greenhorns, they shouldn't even be considered as presidential contenders and do not have a chance to Win. Let me remind you that Obama was worse than a greenhorn but as we speak, he is the commander in chief of the world's most sophisticated and advanced state. I tell you what, minds like yours are the one who are resisting regime change in Kenya. Do not judge me by my date of membership. Further, I did not state that ODM does not have a sound political analytic team. It was my hope that they do. As a matter of fact, they may do. The question is, are they using their results the best way possible? You don't even seem to get simple statements right. Read what you've just written above and what I told you sometime back in the post below. I'm simply saying, we shall know how good a political analyst you are when reality hits us all. It is the height of hypocrisy for you to predict for us a battle between Tuju and Raila, yet I'm sure you don't even know who that guy (Tuju) is. While the whole nation knows Raila inside-out (his weaknesses and strengths) by now, Tuju has not been subjected to any public scrutiny so far. Please try to do a background check on Tuju to find out who he really is before you can engage me on a Tuju Vs. Raila debate. I never gave you this hint coz I first of all wanted to see how good a political analyst you are! Now, go figure and comeback to me with your findings for a debate on the two. We are not going to accept chameleons and liars to run our country. We shall smoke them all out! Just to show how amateurish your analysis is, you are still talking about G7 but rubbish PNU. Yet we now know that G7 is as dead as dodo and instead we now have PNU Alliance with the majority shareholders being Kenyatta, Kalonzo and Saitoti! You might need to revise your hypothesis!! To Mzee, I get more hits on my blog from other boards and sources so I am in no way advertising my blog. besides, I dont gain anything, its free and no advertisements are on it. To Phil, First, I am not emotional, this analysis show no emotions to any of the candidates. Secondly, the Kenyan political machination have it that when in need, a candidate will forget his 'ideals' and take a position that would ultimately give him an edge over his opponents or till he gains what he wants (example, Raila joining Kanu a few years leading to the 2002 elections, Uhuru, abandoning his KANU colleagues in ODM to 'save' his butt in Gatundu and avoid a Kikuyu revolt against him, Kalonzo, miraculously sanctifying the 2007 stolen election in a bid to gain his VP post, e.t.c) Tuju is no different, if the G-7 offer him their mantle, he will singing at the top of his voice on how diverse the group is which it is anyway. I repeat, the G-7 alliance is not a tribalistic alliance, its a conglomerate of tribal chiefdoms with a common course: preventing Raila from gaining state house and if it takes rallying against Tuju to achieve this, they will do it if they cannot do it on their own. Fourth, there will be no run-off on my scenario as Tuju will beat Tinga outright. I am not supporting any presidential candidate, I am merely analyzing the current situation and from my analyses, I am making the most probable happening that we may see. You may think that peripheral candidates like Martha, Muite, Wetangula are for ODM, well be it, the question is what role will they play in ODM and how many votes do you think they will add to the Odinga Camp? Do you think Martha will pull even a third of central votes to the Odinga camp? Remember Nyaga in the last elections. Did Raila even get 10% of Nyaga's constituency presidential votes? Do you think Muite is a political heavyweight recognized in central? How much influence does he have amongst central legislatures? Wetangula, does he even have a following in western? How about Ngilu? Further, do you think Raila is going to trade posts with them and replace some of his stalwart team players like Mudavadi? I doubt. And these so called peripheral candidates will not accept to join his bandwagon with no substantial goodies. Yes, Tuju can get the 25 % threshold in 23 counties if all the other G-7 alliance members rally behind him. If you read carefully, I have stated that this scenario will occur if Martha is also in the race whereby she will most likely claw the central vote. Lastly, Raila is not unbeatable and you can be rest assured that if the G-7 alliance fronts Tuju, this will occur. Further, I have not compared PNU with ODM herein so leave it out of question. Do not look at Tuju's candidature from his face value, bear in mind that a large number of legislatures within the G-7 fabric have one goal; beat Raila and if it takes all rallying behind Ruto, they will do it. To Kipfirimbi, Just because Ruto states that he will be in the ballot box, does not mean he will be in the ballot box. This is one of the many strategies that the G-7 alliance is using to disguise their ultimate plan. Remember, even Eugene (David) has vowed to floor Goliath (Raila) but we all know that it will be highly unlikely that he will view for presidency. In all, lets remember that so far, we can only be certain of one presidential candidate- Tinga, his opponent(s) are still unknown as they are still planning on the best way possible to down him. My friend,
You are no different from our own Jukwaa-based pundits who have predicted for us time and again the outcome of certain events in the country despite some of us telling them the opposite will be the case come crunch time!
And you know what, such pundits have had to constantly swallow humble pies when reality hit them!
In case of doubt, just ask one Jukwaa over-guru by the name Kamalet!
We look forward to dumping you into the same trash-heap with Kamalet after next year's elections! We shall be right here on Jukwaa to witness that dumping ceremony.
It is your right to campaign for Raphael, but please DON'T sell us crap. We are used to it from the above-mentioned 'Jukwaa guru'!
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Post by phil on Sept 20, 2011 16:10:48 GMT 3
Phil, From your reply I can already tell that you are an ODM sympathizer. Please be, many are. Its not a crime. Just do not eat, sleep and dream ODM all the time such that you fail to look at the dynamics going on in other political outfits. And what exactly is wrong with being a sympathiser of Kenya's most popular and most nationalistic party? ODM welcomes fair competition and has shown infact that it respects rule of law and adheres to ideals of multiparty politics. I wonder if those other political outfits you are marketing here know anything about respect of rule of law. Why do you want to insist on Jukwaa believing your unsubstantiated theories? Do you imagine you know Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta better than they know themselves? I have already published facts as they happened in yesteryears and I will not waste time repeating myself. Neither am I under any obligation to agree with what you say here above. You tried to downplay the significance of ODM having fringe candidates supporting its presidential dream. I was clear that Nyagah's value addition to ODM is not necessarily votes from his ethnic community. ODM as a political party accommodates both the majority and minority, losers and winners. ODM is a party for all Kenyans and not just for two or three tribes. Please do not misquote me. In this thread, you have very much tried to sell the idea that the G-7 are likely to get behind Tuju as a compromise candidate to face ODM in 2012. On my part, I have used facts of history to demonstrate to you that not only is that possibility far fetched, it is most unlikely to happen given the well known politics of dishonesty, greed and selfishness that are the hallmarks of PNU alliance. I further went ahead to challenge you to publish those 50% of counties you think Tuju would garner effortlessly the minimum 25% as required by the constitution, then you brought this tired line ati, if the G-7 can back him up, he would manage. To many IF's and zero facts in this false Tuju presidential bid. This is about Tuju. Not about Orengo or Joe Donde. I am not in the business of judging the quality of legislators we have in the 10th parliament but I can tell you for free, Tuju's bid is more of a joke than Orengo's in 2002. Orengo had solid credentials but still failed to beat Rainbow alliance backed Kibaki. Even Moi backed Uhuru failed. So are you trying to suggest that Tuju in 2012 will be a better and greater candidate than Uhuru or Orengo in 2002? Dream on my brother! This is probably my last contribution to this thread unless you can substantiate your theories of G-7 uniting behind Tuju and then Tuju beating an ODM candidate. Let's see real numbers and facts. Not some armchair analysis.
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Post by danielwaweru on Sept 20, 2011 17:57:03 GMT 3
And what exactly is wrong with being a sympathiser of Kenya's most popular and most nationalistic party? ODM welcomes fair competition and has shown infact that it respects rule of law and adheres to ideals of multiparty politics. I wonder if those other political outfits you are marketing here know anything about respect of rule of law. I think the problem is the assumption that ODM is that party. If you look at ODM's conduct of its 2007 campaign in, for example, the Coast, you will find that its chosen method was the fanning of ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. (See, for a start, this wikileaks cable report of the rally held on October 22 2007). During his lunch with the Ambassador Ranneberger on October 1 2007, Raila Odinga, in his capacity as ODM's presidential candidate and leader of the party, was happy to admit that he looked forward to benefiting from anti-Gikuyu sentiment. (Again, you will find an account of the meeting via wikileaks.) There is also the small matter of the the party's policy of mass murder and displacement of Gikuyu and other ethnicities taken to be allied to government---the evidence for which was obvious as long ago as 2007, but which is now beginning to emerge in irrefutable detail. It's not easy to see how a party committed to mass ethnic murder and displacement---and whose campaign modus operandi was to excite ethnic hatred---can easily be called a nationalistic party, but I'm sure you have a reason.
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Post by jakaswanga on Sept 20, 2011 18:50:52 GMT 3
It's not easy to see how a party committed to mass ethnic murder and displacement---and whose campaign modus operandi was to excite ethnic hatred---can easily be called a nationalistic party, but I'm sure you have a reason. DW, I think you go way over the top there in declaring the ODM was COMMITTED... to genocide and ethnic cleansing! with the modus operandi of inciting the necessary inter ethnic hate! You are describing Juvenal Habyarmana's Interahamwe organisation! But that the post-colonial state in Africa is a theater for the falsification of history by her elite is fairly obvious. This elite --called Tropical Gansters by I think a french writer on Africa--- have to mythologise themselves, since, to all practical purposes, they have no results to show in Africa. While themselves are in stupendous opulence, they preside over dens of biblic poverty in the urban centers, swathes of pre-historic backwardness in the rural areas, dashed aspirations of the mass and a restive, fermenting underclass of youth. Party leaders are fathers of their nations, they are nationalistic, popular etc. Me therefore says an allied intelligentsia must sell these falsehoods as a sedative. An ideological masquerade for the status quo to continue. It is in this light that I see Phil's spirited defence of this political liter called ODM. I am watching in broad daylight a sustained attempt to derail and render void the new constitution. ODM playing a key role there. Phil finds that nationalistic! Dont tell me PNU fails the test of nationalism by those standards folks!
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Post by phil on Sept 20, 2011 19:04:10 GMT 3
I think the problem is the assumption that ODM is that party. If you look at ODM's conduct of its 2007 campaign in, for example, the Coast, you will find that its chosen method was the fanning of ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. (See, for a start, this wikileaks cable report of the rally held on October 22 2007). During his lunch with the Ambassador Ranneberger on October 1 2007, Raila Odinga, in his capacity as ODM's presidential candidate and leader of the party, was happy to admit that he looked forward to benefiting from anti-Gikuyu sentiment. (Again, you will find an account of the meeting via wikileaks.) There is also the small matter of the the party's policy of mass murder and displacement of Gikuyu and other ethnicities taken to be allied to government---the evidence for which was obvious as long ago as 2007, but which is now beginning to emerge in irrefutable detail. It's not easy to see how a party committed to mass ethnic murder and displacement---and whose campaign modus operandi was to excite ethnic hatred---can easily be called a nationalistic party, but I'm sure you have a reason. @ Daniel Waweru We shall be off topic on this but I will try and answer you. I find it strange that someone who is as knowledgeable as you are would base his argument of a historical fact on lopsided wikileakss cables. Anyone who believes as gospel truth anything that comes out wikileaks would be a little too naive. Throughout 2005-7, we were in Kenya and witnessed massive propaganda by PNU and its agents against one Raila Odinga. Never mind it is Raila (a Luo) who made a famous declaration at Uhuru Park and later personally led campaigns that made Kibaki (a Kikuyu) president-on-a-wheelchair in 2002. In 2007, I recall Raila and his entourage were physically evicted from a hotel in Nyeri simply because he was running as an opposition candidate against the same Kibaki and that a few years ealier, the same people had welcomed Raila with open arms and called him Njamba - or hero in nativespeak. To democratically campaign against Kibaki or any other Agikuyu candidate in any political contest need not be translated to mean a wholesale campaign against the entire Agikuyu community. One undeniable fact in electoral politics in Kenya is that the Agikuyu have persistently been selfish though rightful in their voting patterns. All their votes are mostly in favour of their Agikuyu sons and never for any other non-Agikuyu candidate. The same cannot be said of other leading ethnic groups in Kenya. Sample this: Have the Kalenjin not voted to Uhuru before? How about the Luo for Kibaki or the Luhya for Matiba? Notice any common thread here? Ranerbegger I remember, was one and only diplomat to congratulate Kibaki's civilian coup in 2007, one goodwill message that was later hurriedly withdrawn when wananchi took the law into their own hands. Any wikileaks cable from Ranebergger is one I take with a handful of salt, particularly those blatantly false anti-ODM cables. Historical community differences among those living in the former Rift Valley province and elsewhere should not be misconstrued to mean political differences between ODM and its competitors especially since ODM what itself promising disenchanted and disenfranchised citizens that it would restore dignity and promote freedoms and equity if it won political power in the elections. It would be natural for such passionate campaigns to be confused with anti-Gikuyu propaganda. ODM will continue to campaign for highly emotive issues like land reforms, devolution, women rights, equity and education for all. If it so happens that the Agikuyu are collateral damage in the drive to reform this country, so be it! Blame it on the Agikuyu elites, but ultimately, Kenya gains in the long term.
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Post by joblesscorner on Sept 21, 2011 6:59:02 GMT 3
We shall be off topic on this but I will try and answer you.
I find it strange that someone who is as knowledgeable as you are would base his argument of a historical fact on lopsided wikileakss cables. Anyone who believes as gospel truth anything that comes out wikileaks would be a little too naive.You really believe that the material that was obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to a number of news organizations in advance i.e New york times, The Guardian, Del Spiegel, EL PAÍS all respect News Organization, would print fake documents ?A mammoth cache of a quarter-million confidential American diplomatic cables, most of them from the last three years, provided an unprecedented look at bargaining by embassies, candid views of foreign leaders and assessments of threats was fake and not realiable. I really doubt...
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 21, 2011 23:27:47 GMT 3
Phil,
As usual, you display inexplicable anger in your writing. Calm down. Facts mixed with anger will not deliver the presidential ticket to ODM. If indeed you are part of the ODM propaganda group, then you need to shed the arrogance associated with ODM supporters a from a certain community in Kenya. Your work is to appeal to these other communities who have not yet joined the ODM bandwagon and they need more that raw arrogance and anger to convince. ODM may table out all facts and injustices that have been committed by their political nemeses to the electorate, but if it presents them in an acrimonious nature, the former would wish to stick to the devil they know than you know who.
Calm down, in a blog like this where political dreams and outcomes are predicted each and everyday, I wouldn't give the slightest hint of my true feelings to my enemy. Instead, I would hold my cards close to my chest as I smile at my enemy till I get what I want. That is what the Kikuyu have been doing all along and as you can see, they have ruled in Kenya for more that 25.
I repeat, elections will not be won on facts alone, minute details like demeanor play a major role on the outcome.
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Post by okolowaka on Sept 22, 2011 0:06:55 GMT 3
I am still not convinced how Tuju, who as we speak is "talking to two political parties before deciding which one he will run on", will be a major player in 2012... I do not see how Uhuru, Musyoka, Saitoti will agree to get behind Tuju on this quest... If you add Karua, Kenneth, Kaminchu, etc in the mix, Tuju will be lucky to beat Orengo's 0.42% tally....
This opinion piece by the starter of this thread is his right though, but seriously, Tuju....?
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Post by okolowaka on Sept 22, 2011 0:26:16 GMT 3
If indeed you are part of the ODM propaganda group, then you need to shade the arrogance associated with ODM supporters a from a certain community in Kenya. Your work is to appeal to these other communities who have not yet joined the ODM bandwagon and they need more that raw arrogance and anger to convince..... Rise up above this.... Debate without attempting to raise such heat.... No need to vilify an entire "certain community" to make a point in your argument.... This thread is de-railed vibaya....!
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Post by merlin on Sept 22, 2011 18:22:44 GMT 3
And what exactly is wrong with being a sympathiser of Kenya's most popular and most nationalistic party? ODM welcomes fair competition and has shown infact that it respects rule of law and adheres to ideals of multiparty politics. I wonder if those other political outfits you are marketing here know anything about respect of rule of law. I think the problem is the assumption that ODM is that party. If you look at ODM's conduct of its 2007 campaign in, for example, the Coast, you will find that its chosen method was the fanning of ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. (See, for a start, this wikileaks cable report of the rally held on October 22 2007). During his lunch with the Ambassador Ranneberger on October 1 2007, Raila Odinga, in his capacity as ODM's presidential candidate and leader of the party, was happy to admit that he looked forward to benefiting from anti-Gikuyu sentiment. (Again, you will find an account of the meeting via wikileaks.) There is also the small matter of the the party's policy of mass murder and displacement of Gikuyu and other ethnicities taken to be allied to government---the evidence for which was obvious as long ago as 2007, but which is now beginning to emerge in irrefutable detail. It's not easy to see how a party committed to mass ethnic murder and displacement---and whose campaign modus operandi was to excite ethnic hatred---can easily be called a nationalistic party, but I'm sure you have a reason. WikileaksDanielFirst: Not everything on Wikileaks is fact as it does contain lots of unverified assessments and opinion. Second: For Raila Odinga to admit he looked forward of benefitting from the anti-Gikuyu sentiment cannot be translated into an ODM party strategy to fanning ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. It is worth to read the wikileaks cable report about the rally held on October 22, 2007 yourself and become aware the issue of majimbo was discussed with voices of reason however Balala & Shikuku: made blatant appeals to anti-Kikuyu passions (opinion Ranneberger). We have seen the development of Balala becoming a PNU adherent and going back again to ODM. I do not think you can credit him forwarding the strategy and principles of ODM.
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Post by danielwaweru on Sept 22, 2011 20:21:45 GMT 3
And what exactly is wrong with being a sympathiser of Kenya's most popular and most nationalistic party? ODM welcomes fair competition and has shown infact that it respects rule of law and adheres to ideals of multiparty politics. I wonder if those other political outfits you are marketing here know anything about respect of rule of law. I think the problem is the assumption that ODM is that party. If you look at ODM's conduct of its 2007 campaign in, for example, the Coast, you will find that its chosen method was the fanning of ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. (See, for a start, this wikileaks cable report of the rally held on October 22 2007). During his lunch with the Ambassador Ranneberger on October 1 2007, Raila Odinga, in his capacity as ODM's presidential candidate and leader of the party, was happy to admit that he looked forward to benefiting from anti-Gikuyu sentiment. (Again, you will find an account of the meeting via wikileaks.) There is also the small matter of the the party's policy of mass murder and displacement of Gikuyu and other ethnicities taken to be allied to government---the evidence for which was obvious as long ago as 2007, but which is now beginning to emerge in irrefutable detail. It's not easy to see how a party committed to mass ethnic murder and displacement---and whose campaign modus operandi was to excite ethnic hatred---can easily be called a nationalistic party, but I'm sure you have a reason. WikileaksDanielFirst: Not everything on Wikileaks is fact as it does contain lots of unverified assessments and opinion. Second: For Raila Odinga to admit he looked forward of benefitting from the anti-Gikuyu sentiment cannot be translated into an ODM party strategy to fanning ethnic hatred of Gikuyu. It is worth to read the wikileaks cable report about the rally held on October 22, 2007 yourself and become aware the issue of majimbo was discussed with voices of reason however Balala & Shikuku: made blatant appeals to anti-Kikuyu passions (opinion Ranneberger). We have seen the development of Balala becoming a PNU adherent and going back again to ODM. I do not think you can credit him forwarding the strategy and principles of ODM. 1. Unfortunately, you can't argue both that Wikileaks is unreliable and that it faithfully records Raila's opinion. If you accept that Raila's admission is accurate, then you can't argue that Wikileaks is unreliable. Since you seem to admit that the record of Raila's lunch with Rannerberger is accurate, you don't appear to have any reason to deny that wikileaks' reports are accurate. 2. You argue that because Balala was willing to co-operate with PNU, he cannot have been party to ODM's strategy of mass murder. Unfortunately this is a bad argument for several reasons. Let me give you a nice little example to start with. In the Daily Nation of August 14, 1994, we find Raila Odinga speaking as follows: Those calling for majimboism are confused. In fact, we can equate their call as akin to Black apartheid, because they are not talking about federalism in the modern form as we know it. They are calling for ethnic cleansing. They are for ethnic balkanisation of the country. (You can find the reference and full text of the passage on p. 111 of John Oucho's Undercurrents of Ethnic Conflict in Kenya.) The problem for you is obvious. ODM's signature policy was majimbo. And yet your very own Presidential candidate hd publicly announced that calls for majimboism were calls for ethnic cleansing. Are we to assume that he did not support his own party's central policy? Self-evidently not. Rather, during his period with the party, he supported its goals in the hope of getting elected. Likewise Balala. That he is now out of favour with ODM proves nothing about his time when he was with ODM. So fully did he support its goals, in fact, that he was happy to make the remarks which are reported in the second wikileaks cable. 3. The Prime Minister's admission that he looked forward to benefiting from anti-Gikuyu sentiment is an admission of party strategy, since any political party will attempt to maximise the circumstances which favour it. But you don't have to take my word for it. You may be interested, for example, in the findings of Paul Collier, reported in his widely-read Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places. After extensive research in Nigeria, his team came to Kenya to to examine the situation before, during and after the election. At page 72, he reports his finding that: Violence against the Kikuyu was a deliberate strategy of Raila Odinga . (You might also be interested in the analysis on pp. 70 and 71 of the book.)
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Post by danielwaweru on Sept 22, 2011 21:37:31 GMT 3
Hi Phil, I find it strange that someone who is as knowledgeable as you are would base his argument of a historical fact on lopsided wikileakss cables. Anyone who believes as gospel truth anything that comes out wikileaks would be a little too naive. After the election in 2007, ODM was happy to accept exit polls which seemed to show that Raila Odinga had won the election. A number of those polls were commissioned by the American government, working through its embassy here, or through its quasi-governmental agencies---the International Republican Institute, for one. In fact, if I remember correctly, ODM's lawyers introduced one of those polls as evidence before the Kriegler commission. It follows that you cannot now claim that the Americans were so biased against you that their evidence is unusable. You were happy to rely on American evidence in the past, so you cannot now claim that it is unusable. Throughout 2005-7, we were in Kenya and witnessed massive propaganda by PNU and its agents against one Raila Odinga. Never mind it is Raila (a Luo) who made a famous declaration at Uhuru Park and later personally led campaigns that made Kibaki (a Kikuyu) president-on-a-wheelchair in 2002. I fail to see what relevance this has. It doesn't show that it was not ODM's policy to conduct ethnic cleansing, especially since there is independent evidence of this intention from a variety of people who were not themselves PNU operatives. Much of that evidence will emerge in the court hearings, but Paul Collier's book, mentioned below, is a good place to start. In 2007, I recall Raila and his entourage were physically evicted from a hotel in Nyeri simply because he was running as an opposition candidate against the same Kibaki and that a few years ealier, the same people had welcomed Raila with open arms and called him Njamba - or hero in nativespeak. In 1978 Moi became President because Kibaki was his campaign manager, and he squared the relevant KANU delegations from Central Province. It does not follow that Moi did not later carry out a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the Rift Valley---aimed at Gikuyu, among others. To democratically campaign against Kibaki or any other Agikuyu candidate in any political contest need not be translated to mean a wholesale campaign against the entire Agikuyu community. Unfortunately, you're just confused here. I quite specifically claimed that ODM's party strategy included mass murder and ethnic cleansing. Planning for mass murder and ethnic cleansing are quite distinct from campaigning against a Gikuyu candidate. This is a distinction that certain members of ODM were able to make: for example, in the Mombasa case, there were certain of ODM's members who chose not to participate in the ethnic baiting. One undeniable fact in electoral politics in Kenya is that the Agikuyu have persistently been selfish though rightful in their voting patterns. All their votes are mostly in favour of their Agikuyu sons and never for any other non-Agikuyu candidate. The same cannot be said of other leading ethnic groups in Kenya. Sample this: Have the Kalenjin not voted to Uhuru before? How about the Luo for Kibaki or the Luhya for Matiba? Notice any common thread here? Unfortunately, there is no common thread to be had. We have argued about this before, and you seem simply to ignore the evidence. For example, Goldsworthy's book on Mboya explains, in some detail, how Mboya's electoral success depended on his appeal to Gikuyu voters. You chose to ignore this point in a previous thread, and yet I know you've read the Goldsworthy book, because you often quote it on Kumekucha. As for other elections, well, I have already mentioned how Moi became President because Kibaki (and other Gikuyu politicians) organised the relevant KANU delegations from Central Province to vote for him in the runup to the 1978 election. Ranerbegger I remember, was one and only diplomat to congratulate Kibaki's civilian coup in 2007, one goodwill message that was later hurriedly withdrawn when wananchi took the law into their own hands. Any wikileaks cable from Ranebergger is one I take with a handful of salt, particularly those blatantly false anti-ODM cables. As one has come to expect, you've just got the wrong set of facts. 1. The congratulations came from the State department, and were issued by its spokesman, a guy called Robert McInturff. Other countries also congratulated Kibaki on his win, prominent among them Uganda. (I mention this because several of ODM's candidates have since made their way to Uganda for meetings with Museveni and members of his administration. Presumably, not everyone who congratulated Kibaki is untrustworthy.) 2. The violence started before the election results were announced. There were evictions in estates in Eldoret on the 28th, as well as roadblocks and other such. (You might be interested in the relevant section of the Waki report, which is on page 61.) 3. The second cable was written by the Political Office at the American Embassy, rather than Ranneberger. 4. I'm rather surprised that you think Ranneberger was biased in favour of PNU. During the election campaign, he argued that Kenya needed a generational change in its leadership: a claim that was widely taken as indicating support for ODM's candidate. 5. Sadly, this is an irrelevant argument. Ranneberger was not obviously biased against ODM, as a look at the cables will show, and even if he were, you would still need to show that the conversation ---during which Raila Odinga admitted to looking forward to a win propelled by anti-Gikuyu sentiment---either didn't occur or had a substantially different content. Good luck. Historical community differences among those living in the former Rift Valley province and elsewhere should not be misconstrued to mean political differences between ODM and its competitors especially since ODM what itself promising disenchanted and disenfranchised citizens that it would restore dignity and promote freedoms and equity if it won political power in the elections. It would be natural for such passionate campaigns to be confused with anti-Gikuyu propaganda. Unfortunately, historical community grievances had very little to do with it. (For example, much of the violence occurred in places where more than 70% of Gikuyu had been evicted in previous rounds of violence, or where there were more or less no Gikuyu land owners, and so on. You can find some of the relevant stats in Politically Allocated Land Rights and the Geography of Electoral Violence: The Case of Kenya in the 1990s) The conduct of ODM's campaign explicitly called for ethnic cleansing, rather than for sorting out communal differences in a peaceful manner. I hate to quote Paul Collier again, but, as he points out on page 70 of Wars, Guns and Votes: The Kenyan election of 2007 provided an opportunity for a new set of politicians to fan the flames that had been lit by their predecessors. By far the main culprit [in ethnic mobilisation] was the opposition leader, Raila Odinga. Recall that the incumbent has the advantage in respect of bribery and miscounting, so the opposition is indeed more likely to resort to the cheaper strategy of playing on ethnic identity. Odinga ran a campaign that was tantamount to promising ethnic cleansing. His strategy was electorally successful because the Kikuyu, whom he targeted, constituted less than a quarter of the population. (See also p. 72 where he reports his finding that violence against Gikuyu was Raila's electoral strategy.) ODM will continue to campaign for highly emotive issues like land reforms, devolution, women rights, equity and education for all. If it so happens that the Agikuyu are collateral damage in the drive to reform this country, so be it! Blame it on the Agikuyu elites, but ultimately, Kenya gains in the long term. Please consult your party's legal department in the future, because you appear to be admitting the intent necessary for a finding of corporate liability for forcible transfer of population---what is colloquially known as ethnic cleansing. Liability for forcible transfer doesn't go by specific intent (as for genocide). Rather, if you act in the knowledge that there is a substantial chance that ethnic cleansing will result, and it follows, then you're liable for ethnic cleansing. You seem to be admitting (cf. your claim of collateral damage) that it is party policy to carry out activities which you recognise have a substantial chance of resulting in the relevant ethnic cleansing. I take it your party would rather not admit that it has plans for the commission of crimes against humanity.
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emali
Full Member
Posts: 219
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Post by emali on Sept 23, 2011 4:57:56 GMT 3
This thread reflects Tuju’s chances of becoming PORK come 2012…One person claiming he is the right candidate and everyone else amused that he is actually serious…
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Sept 23, 2011 7:21:50 GMT 3
This thread reflects Tuju’s chances of becoming PORK come 2012…One person claiming he is the right candidate and everyone else amused that he is actually serious… Welcome to Jukwaa my friend.
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