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Post by joblesscorner on Mar 16, 2012 4:07:25 GMT 3
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Post by adongo23456 on Mar 16, 2012 4:14:14 GMT 3
So Eugene Wamalwa is our next president? Right? Let me start rehearsing songs for His Excellency! Wake me up when I am supposed to sing. I will be dead asleep. No offense intended. Thank you. |
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Post by mzee on Mar 16, 2012 10:09:06 GMT 3
ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!hehehehehehe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The most useless analysis so far. Should I cry or laugh?
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Post by phil on Mar 16, 2012 17:42:40 GMT 3
I seriously doubt if Eugene Wamalwa himself can take and follow advise from a political imbecile like Tony Gacoka.
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Post by jakaswanga on Mar 16, 2012 21:35:21 GMT 3
HERE IS NEXT TO A VERBATIM SUMMARY OF WHAT GACHOKA SAYS. And I think Jukwaa should read it and offer better rebuttal. It is a popular narrative worth a study.
Gachoka... [talking on the bench to Jeff K.]
Raila vs Mudavadi is the second episode of the Luo vs the Luhya fight.
Raila is taking on Western for the second time. The first was over Ford Kenya, when Wamalwa beat him in Thika, and he quit to form NDP.
These things are bloodline affairs, Mudavadi is son of Mudavadi, Odinga son of Odinga, Kenyatta son of Kenyatta! and why not the Wamalwas then?
Mudavadi snr was appointed by Moi at the height of Moi's looting. On his death Mudavadi jnr was appointed to Finance to take care of the loot the duo had amassed! The Mudavadis have always been Moi projects, that is why the surviving one was donated to Uhuru in Moi's succession plan! Mudavadi has never been his own man.
Wamalwa & Kibaki kicked the butts of Mudavadi and Uhuru, so, according to Gachoka, it would be a fallacy to think a Mudavadi can beat a Wamalwa. Wamalwa beats Mudavadi (Maragoli 10%) because of the Bukusu (50%) standing to a man behind Eugene!
Mudavadi could not even hold his Vihiga. He has never been his own man. And Raila found him in the gutter, where he can soon return if he ventures on his own ....
Mudavadi can ONLY beat Raila by leaving ODM, since there is no way he can be handed the ticket.
Uhuru is the leading candidate. Raila's days are gone coz Charity, Ruto, Balala, Mudavadi are leaving or have left with their voting blocks. Pentagon is disintergrated. Gone. Only Luo Nyanza is left with Raila. As you can see them, the Kajwang's attacking Mudavadi.
Uhuru will triumph in the second round definately. [No mention of the implications of the ICC on this clip]
And the massive solid GEMA vote behind UK, coupled with support from Ruto's Kalenjin and other ODM defectors make him invincible.... anyway.
The polls [giving Raila leads] are wrong because they INTEGRALLY look at ODM!
(Actually there are polls which ask individual preference of Kenyans for president, and they too give Raila a lead up to now. Gachoka ignores this fact, because it does not fit his assertions, and Jeff does not go for that nuance.)
Raila will soon be back to Kalonzo figures where he was in 1997. There can be no free and fair elections in ODM. WHY? Look at the interests gathered in the party... Kidero, Kisia in Nairobi... Luo Luhya split. ODM has to go the PNU way. PNU imploded, under the weight of conflicting internal dissentions.
ODM splits into many bits --shirikisho etc etc, with one or three MPs a piece, with Raila a central figure therein with a few more.
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He Gachoka has a pure ethnic analysis. Only the ethnic base is the factor. The possibilities of other variables effecting the ethnic loyalty is erased and immaterial. Bukusu (50%) standing to a man behind Eugene Wamalwa beats Mudavadi (Maragoli 10%). Final!
This purely ethno thinktank also tells a narrative of the battle of dynasties --[Why dynastic politics anyway?] And if we admit Kenya is ethnically very polarized, then in Jukwaa the calibre of rebuttals to deflate this balloon will have to be thrustier than what I have read from the above correspondents.
Here is an example of what I expect.
After the 2007 elections, carrying the Nairobi figures, a group of fellas approached a Mathematician who had studied the famous Bradley effect in Los Angeles years ago. The question was, had a significant percentage, and if so how much, of Nairobi Gikuyus voted ODM, inspite of the expectation that they would vote PNU?
Unearthing and understanding and explaining such figures adds another dimension to the voting patterns of Kenyans, which otherwise appear only to be explainable by ethnic origin.
Instead of false laughter at Gachoka, you folks better offer an alternative pitch to his robust ethnocentrism! And if vernacular FMs are anything to go by, we know what kind of pundits are winning the street!
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Post by tnk on Mar 16, 2012 22:01:47 GMT 3
jakaswanga
only leaders/pundits from central continue to harp ethnic issues, ethnic voting blocks and what not. this has been their agenda from GEMA days and remains their agenda today.
can you highlight even one true leadership virtue/quality or item from that interview
on another thread we have professionals striking for one reason or another, do we also find out how the strikes or strikers are doing so by ethnic community?
although i get your point about Gachoka, the reality is that this is the only hold that PNU still has i.e ethnic voting block otherwise, the economy is highly unstable, the skewed infrastructure projects are yet to bear fruit.
there is no need to address the ethnic babble from Gachoka. Let him and those like minded continue to stew in it.
Even the rift block does not want to be in a block simply for the sake of ethnicity. what they want is results on their historic grievances
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Post by ebarasi on Mar 17, 2012 2:22:48 GMT 3
I know Tony Gachoka worked with Raila and he left but was he ever a political pundit or ideological visionary? Please help me.
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Post by jakaswanga on Mar 17, 2012 10:51:51 GMT 3
jakaswanga only leaders/pundits from central continue to harp ethnic issues, ethnic voting blocks and what not. this has been their agenda from GEMA days and remains their agenda today. can you highlight even one true leadership virtue/quality or item from that interview on another thread we have professionals striking for one reason or another, do we also find out how the strikes or strikers are doing so by ethnic community? although i get your point about Gachoka, the reality is that this is the only hold that PNU still has i.e ethnic voting block otherwise, the economy is highly unstable, the skewed infrastructure projects are yet to bear fruit. there is no need to address the ethnic babble from Gachoka. Let him and those like minded continue to stew in it. I think that ethnic bubble needs to be seriously adressed. Needs to be urgently deconstructed at every juncture. And not just for scholarly purposes. WHY? As Kenya plunged into PEV last time around, the violence took an ETHNIC slant. --There is no class loyalty when poor Kalenjins slaughter poor Kikuyus, and poor Kikuyus slaughter poor Luos. There is ethnic paramountcy. 2007 is just yesterday, and I do think that ethnic paramouncy/solidarity would still be decisive in a radical situation of hot conflict --like botched elections again. I then think this ethnic thing is a political faultline, and there is need for active work to hold it together, even as the likes of Gachoka perpetually seek to articulate it, widen and exploit it. In ignoring or failing to counter this thinktank, dismissing it offhand as you do sir, underestimating her organisational and mobilisational potential on the ground, you should take a look at how the same mentality/school has dismembered Somalia's social and political fabric when weakly countered. Even the rift block does not want to be in a block simply for the sake of ethnicity. what they want is results on their historic grievances NB: Of course the ethnic homogeinity has never managed to conceal the contradictions therein, and so there has always been a (...) Matiba-Kibaki dualism, a Mboya-Odinga dualism, a Moi-Seroney dualism ... Dualisms which are based on irreconcilable economic realities. I know ethnic balkanisation [as in fanning extreme nationalism], is and will be the last resort of this elite to maintain relevance and dominance. But that force is a destroyer of nations. Actually Gachoka's affable and confident bubble turns my heart cold. He looks an innocent baby with a loaded gun pointing it at an adult! When it matures it is radio milles collines! It is deadly poison. You can imagine what he says in the safety of his own enclave, far from public microphones which no doubt impose a restraint. |
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emali
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Post by emali on Mar 18, 2012 4:31:20 GMT 3
jakaswanga only leaders/pundits from central continue to harp ethnic issues, ethnic voting blocks and what not. this has been their agenda from GEMA days and remains their agenda today. can you highlight even one true leadership virtue/quality or item from that interview on another thread we have professionals striking for one reason or another, do we also find out how the strikes or strikers are doing so by ethnic community? although i get your point about Gachoka, the reality is that this is the only hold that PNU still has i.e ethnic voting block otherwise, the economy is highly unstable, the skewed infrastructure projects are yet to bear fruit. there is no need to address the ethnic babble from Gachoka. Let him and those like minded continue to stew in it. . Needs to be urgently deconstructed at every juncture. And not just for scholarly purposes. WHY? As Kenya plunged into PEV last time around, the violence took an ETHNIC slant. --There is no class loyalty when poor Kalenjins slaughter poor Kikuyus, and poor Kikuyus slaughter poor Luos. There is ethnic paramountcy. 2007 is just yesterday, and I do think that ethnic paramouncy/solidarity would still be decisive in a radical situation of hot conflict --like botched elections again. I then think this ethnic thing is a political faultline, and there is need for active work to hold it together, even as the likes of Gachoka perpetually seek to articulate it, widen and exploit it. In ignoring or failing to counter this thinktank, dismissing it offhand as you do sir, underestimating her organisational and mobilisational potential on the ground, you should take a look at how the same mentality/school has dismembered Somalia's social and political fabric when weakly countered. Even the rift block does not want to be in a block simply for the sake of ethnicity. what they want is results on their historic grievances NB: Of course the ethnic homogeinity has never managed to conceal the contradictions therein, and so there has always been a (...) Matiba-Kibaki dualism, a Mboya-Odinga dualism, a Moi-Seroney dualism ... Dualisms which are based on irreconcilable economic realities. I know ethnic balkanisation [as in fanning extreme nationalism], is and will be the last resort of this elite to maintain relevance and dominance. But that force is a destroyer of nations. Actually Gachoka's affable and confident bubble turns my heart cold. He looks an innocent baby with a loaded gun pointing it at an adult! When it matures it is radio milles collines! It is deadly poison. You can imagine what he says in the safety of his own enclave, far from public microphones which no doubt impose a restraint. But how do you do that in Kenya? The only way in the near future is through a Raila Presidency IMO... If we are to address ethnicity as you say we cannot do it without delving into personalities, political history,current prevailing conditions and personal opinions. And so I will go right ahead and give you my opinion... The Luo/Gikuyu dynamic has dominated Kenyan politics since the formation of KPU...Raila (just like Jaramogi) with all his faults is still the best candidate we have to be the next PORK because ‘in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king’ but the Gikuyu won’t have it mainly because unlike Moi Raila will not coddle them (& do everything behind the scenes to destroy them i.e.Moi) but run a strong presidency and mess with the only thing the Gikuyu care about which is MONEY… We can have a debate about how our different tribes evolved from the 16th century to date and see how different ethnicities evolved politically/socially and how African culture in general has had difficulties adapting to capitalism/democracy and western culture and address that context to Kenyan politics today but the reality is we have an election next year and we know very well we will vote as we always have along tribal lines…no need for subtleties…Kibunja has made a lot of good proposals in ensuring full representation of ethnicities in government but they are based on numbers not control and power where most of the problem lies… The Gikuyu will dominate Kenya politically and economically for the foreseeable future because they have the numbers and the financial wherewithal (just look at which indigenous group owns most of the financial industry) that is the reason Tony Gachoka can talk the way he does and most Gikuyu’s thoughts mirror his…another Gikuyu president & if not anyone but Raila… A Raila presidency will make a Luo PORK & pacify a community which has been on the outside looking in for 50 years at the same time prove that a Raila presidency won’t be the end of Kenya and also move the presidency away from the Gikuyu/Kalenjin axis ensuring Kenya is not exclusively for the Gikuyu and those that appease them. Kenya much more than most African countries is inundated by national politics, you radically change the political climate & you change everything else primarily ethnic homogeneity. A powerful presidency & and an extremely centralized government will continue to control commerce that is why devolution is almost anathema for Kibaki & his cabal because the rich want to obviously get richer. A non Gikuyu/Kalenjin president will be less tempted to maintain the status quo and follow the letter of our new constitution… We have come a long way with this constitution…though our politicians don’t seem to understand what they voted for but it will go a long way in ensuring ethnic homogeneity especially if its principal caretaker believes in it but ultimately only time, commited individuals and unexpected external influences (ICC) will accelerate our progress… |
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Post by mank on Mar 18, 2012 4:54:01 GMT 3
jakaswanga only leaders/pundits from central continue to harp ethnic issues, ethnic voting blocks and what not. this has been their agenda from GEMA days and remains their agenda today. .... Really? When did the others stop? Such partisan lies are what have made our discussions here mere nonsense. Ethnicity remains an important factor in political calculus, and the analysis here simply recognizes it as a factor ... its not too long since Raila took pains to show how he has the blood of a Nabongo in his vains. What was that about? Not ethnicity? Come on man! |
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Post by jakaswanga on Mar 19, 2012 21:33:45 GMT 3
Mutahi Ngunyi on the this same bench with Jeff, has exactly the same analysis as Gachoka, albeit presented with less banter. The clips have been posted on Jukwaa by mwalimumkuu and furaha in different threads. His are prophesies he says --you can take them to the bank and use them as collateral! I urge Jukwaa to digest and disect these missives with incisive mindset. When your leading pundits day in day out offer a certain narrative, one better be stating why one disagrees! Ignoring wont do! the audience just assumes they are having a field day because they say god's truth! I found this addition interesting: Raila is the West's candidate as kickback zawadi for his aquiescence to the Kibaki presidency during the negotiations! (My own reading of the West's game plan in Kenya is totally different from this, but that is for another day) jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=6704&page=2
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bob
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Post by bob on Mar 19, 2012 23:18:15 GMT 3
One day day in politics can be a very long time,more especially in Kenya. Mutahi Ngunyi,Gachokas and the likes are entitled to there own opinions . In as much as their opinions might sound sweet to the G7 & co. they should never underestimate RAO . Time will tell. Already the prayer rallies are becoming boring,more so if you remove the ocampo duo from the equation then what happens? Remember votes are not necessarily transferable,in addition the trend in central Kenya is either one of their on or voter apathy,so wait & see.
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Mukwhasi
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Justice will live on ..
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Post by Mukwhasi on Mar 20, 2012 5:40:50 GMT 3
Tribal chauvanists will never cease to amaze ,Mr Gachoka was nicley introduced as the CEO for team Eugene Wamalwa campaign ,tell me why this guy ended up making a case for Uhuru and even prdeciting a Uhuru victory? ,i mean how low can one go?,but the absudirty is that he still has a Job in bungoma i mean is Eugene that desperate to identfy with the "us guys" of that bad???
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Post by chokoraa on Mar 20, 2012 6:13:58 GMT 3
Tribal chauvanists will never cease to amaze ,Mr Gachoka was nicley introduced as the CEO for team Eugene Wamalwa campaign ,tell me why this guy ended up making a case for Uhuru and even prdeciting a Uhuru victory? ,i mean how low can one go?,but the absudirty is that he still has a Job in bungoma i mean is Eugene that desperate to identfy with the "us guys" of that bad??? he is assisting Eugene to fail....... |
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Post by justfacts on Mar 25, 2012 18:29:25 GMT 3
Mr Gachoka is a political busy body, the kind whose analysis never go beyond a breakdown of census results which, to add an air of incisiveness, meanders into sub-tribes to predict voting patterns.
I find this an affront on the intelligence of voters who to him are mere sheep - morons who thoughtlessly fall in line with their tribe.
There are many poll issues that have support across tribes - devolution and land come to mind but these tribal number crunchers never weigh into these, perhaps this would introduce too many variables to their divide and rule mathematics and only leave them with a nagging headache.
TG belongs is what should remain in a bygone era. Oddly, many of such characters tend to get ample time on the bench. Which say a lot about that media house.
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Post by gemagema on Mar 25, 2012 20:24:15 GMT 3
Tribal chauvanists will never cease to amaze ,Mr Gachoka was nicley introduced as the CEO for team Eugene Wamalwa campaign ,tell me why this guy ended up making a case for Uhuru and even prdeciting a Uhuru victory? ,i mean how low can one go?,but the absudirty is that he still has a Job in bungoma i mean is Eugene that desperate to identfy with the "us guys" of that bad??? , You actually beat me to it..that is exactly what I noted in this Gachoka fellow. I mean, he is supposedly Eugene's strategist and main campaigner, yet he comes on K24 and rallies for his fellow Agikuyu..Uhuru. The reason this guy is y with Eugene is just because no other serious politician wants him on his team. You can see, that he is not a sincere supporter of Eugene...Its just a job he is doing. I wonder why Eugene took him back...because they had already parted ways. |
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