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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 18, 2013 16:03:45 GMT 3
Beijing has not invested in a single massive, game-changing project in the way it has been known to do in nations where it is seeking to cultivate a deep relationship. The Thika Highway, for example, is the one project that is most associated with China in the popular imagination. Yet the road was constructed using funds from the African Development Bank and the Treasury. Chinese contractors simply won the tender to undertake the works. You mean that "superhighway" (as Kenyans call all 50km of it) wasn't just given? How can that be so when we so all those little men (displacing local labour) working hard on it. The paper can write what it wishes, but in Africa there is nothing like "I saw it with my own eyes!" and Kenyans saw them personally building the roads; so there. By the way, in contrast with those stealing local jobs and finishing Kenya's elephants and rhinos, you will never hear much of Japan in Kenya, but just taking some random examples of grants: "Ambassador Takata, Mr. Henry K. Rotich, the Cabinet Secretary for Treasury, and Mr. Eguchi, Chief Representative of JICA Kenya Office signed on agreements to start two water supply projects in Baringo and Narok, at a signing ceremony held at the office of the National Treasury, on 10th July, 2013. Mr. Richard Lopoyetum, Principle Secretary of the Ministry of Water, Environment and Natural Resources, was present at the ceremony representing the ministry in charge of these projects.
These two projects totaling JPY 2.36 billion will bring 90 boreholes to villages in Baringo, which currently do not have stable access to clean water, and renovate and extend the old water supply system of Narok Town." www.ke.emb-japan.go.jp/2013Activities/Activities-e/WaterProject.htmlAmbassador Takata’s attendance at the Ground Breaking Ceremony for the Construction of Nairobi Western Ring Roads
On August 12th, Ambassador Toshihisa Takata attended the Ground Breaking Ceremony for the Construction of Nairobi Western Ring Roads(a Grant aid project from the Government of Japan) in Nairobi. President Mwai Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Roads Minister Franklin Bett, other government ministers and high officials were present at the ceremony, a testament to the high interest of the Government of Kenya toward this project.
In his speech, President Kibaki expressed a deep appreciation to Japan for the continuous assistance and cooperation toward Kenya even after the tragic earthquake that caused massive destruction of infrastructure in Japan earlier this year.
This project is under taken by Japanese constructor and consultant, Ambassador Takata said ”Products and services by Japanese companies are always about quality. We as a nation believe in that and we believe quality work is cheapest in the long run”.[/i
www.ke.emb-japan.go.jp/20110812.html
Tonnes of Maize have arrived at the Mombasa Port (Handing over ceremony of Japan’s Food Aid)
"The handing over ceremony of Japan’s Food Aid was held at the Mombasa Port on 13th August. The Horn of Africa, including Kenya has been suffering from crippling food deficit due to the worst drought in sixty years. “Five month ago, it was the Kenyans who prayed and devoted money for Japan in a spirit of solidarity. Children in Kibera sang songs in support of the Japanese victims. Now it is those warm persons in Kenya’s arid lands and shanty towns who are suffering from severe hunger and malnutrition. It is Japan’s turn to give back” said H.E. Ambassador Takata. He also mentioned that the amount of maize was enough to feed 3.7 million people for more than 50 days. The Minister for Agriculture Hon. Dr. Sally Kosgey said that the importation of the maize under Japanese Food Aid would help mitigate the high prices of maize in Kenya.
www.ke.emb-japan.go.jp/20110813.html
Japan extends to Kenya Grant Assistance amounting to JPN-Y1.56 billion towards the Project for Dualling of Nairobi-Dagoretti Corner Road C60/C61
On June 2nd 2012, Ambassador Toshihisa Takata and the Minister for Finance Hon. Njeru Githae signed and exchanged notes for the Project for Dualling of Nairobi-Dagoretti Corner Road C60/C61 otherwise known as the Expansion of Ngong Road. The ceremony which was held at the Nairobi Serena Hotel was also witnessed by the minister for Roads Hon. Franklin Bett and the JICA President Mr. Akihiko Tanaka together with major media houses signifying the high interest of the project to Kenya. Also signed during the occasion was the project’s Grant Agreement as well as the Loan Agreement for Mombasa Port Area Road Development Project which had its Exchange of Notes signed on May 22nd 2012.
www.ke.emb-japan.go.jp/Expansion-ofNgongRd.html
A grant contract (GC)signing ceremony for the project “Improving Health of People Living in the Selected Urban Informal Settlement Community in Langata District, Nairobi Province (Phase 3)” by the Japanese NGO Child Doctor
On 30th January 2013, Japan’s Ambassador to Kenya H.E. Toshihisa Takata together with Japanese NGO Child Doctor’s Representative in Kenya Dr. Kazuko Kumon, held a G/C signing ceremony for a 2012 Grant Aid project “Improving Health of People Living in the Selected Urban Informal Settlement Community in Langata District, Nairobi Province (Phase 3)”. With this grant, Child Doctor Japan will implement a project for Community Health Strategy (CHS) in three slums within Nairobi.
www.ke.emb-japan.go.jp/ChildDoctor.html
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 23, 2013 17:56:51 GMT 3
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 23, 2013 20:10:04 GMT 3
I was about to write about my misgivings elsewhere. But well, now that you have pre-empted that... Funny this issue. China vs Kenya, definitely raising unease in wider circles. A kind of diasporean called me long distance to crack a few jokes. He is a true Jaluo, so there was a lot of back and forth . What had triggered him was that Nairobi governor Evans Kidero --who like Omwenga he is 'Ora', had, on behalf of Nairobi county, been given a Chinese handshake at around $100M.I was telling this American, that we all know the Luo fella in Washington DC has nothing to offer apart from vague promises of earth and fire consequences, and some retro-viral generics which cost nothing in India if Kenyans were interested in swallowing them! So he asked me: what is Nairobi selling China? What exactly is China buying from my new Great Luo Hope or Hype, Dr. Evans Kidero? Or from my Great Hero of the 2nd liberation, the Muthamaki Uhuru Kenyatta? Well you know I am Mr. Crude, so what could I say but to be blunt? According to me China is buying all CONTRACTS in Kenya ---whether it is giant infrastructural super railway or local hyacinth removal in Kisumu. wWhether it is geothermal or high-tech communications systems, both civilian and military. And of course with Sudan going to civil war and the oil-flow stopping, China is buying the oil-rights in Turkana, and a naval port in the neighbourhood. China is a rising super-power, and has to acquire the things super-powers need to maintain themselves. And these are no secrets.Then, as pudding, they can bring all their clout to protect the great son of Jomo, if he does a runner on that ICC girl from Gambia.Kidero is a tag-along I opted. Uhuru Kenyatta could have dissuaded Jimna Mbaru from running as an independent. He did not. I repeat he did not, but did the opposite of his public show. The 55 thousand votes Mbaru got, were all that was needed to neutralise 'governor' Fredie Waitito. A statistical distribution of the voter-base of Mbaru, reports he ate Waitito more than Kidero [the mathematical factor can be specified]. CONCLUSION: Onyango Oloo of Jubilee politely asked: ' Omera Kidero, ikuer in iyombo Waitito gi tekri iwuon, koso iber e kwano?' --'My fellow, you insist you beat Waitito on own ability, or good at maths you are?' Is that what they call a trick question? To me it sounds like outright blackmail! I think blackmail is also what I will find, when I read the small print in mandarin about the Great loans Uhuru kenyatta has harvested in Beijin. I do not believe in free lunches. Fin-Sec Rotich is our brains at finance. The guy aint speaking, aint on record hyping these loans. May be he reads mandarin fine-script too! But we know from experience: well-used, loans are a rocket fuel --- see Marshal plan Europe. Poorly used, loans are a debt servitude and mass impoverisation, see Afrika and and the IMF SAP, and their aftermath. Looking at Kenyan body politic to date, Otishotish, do you reckon, we are ready to go German, or Dutch legendary thriftiness with loans? If you answer No, then you know we are headed for servitude. Uhuru Kenyatta, merely the midwife a new colonisation.
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 23, 2013 21:23:25 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: First, let me say that you are a crude but good man. There is an English phrase that is used, in admiration, for such rough-and-ready types: the salt of the earth, especially when they are from what we call "reesaf". We'd rather they not be around for dinner at our grandmothers', but they remain good folks. Respected and admired. The salt of the earth. On to your questions: During the weekend I discussed some of these matters with a few Kenyans. They think Kenya can borrow all it wants because it can later pay back in oil. Now, as far as I know Kenya's great oil pool is estimated at something like 300 million barrels: www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenyas-oil-is-commercially/-/1056/1933026/-/lsf7v2/-/index.html* How much money is that at current market prices? * The amount of Kenya's great oil stock is about what the Saudis put out in one month. If prices go down, how long would it take them to lower their prices and finish the Kenyan market. * The USA actually has plenty of oil but just finds it cheaper to import. It is now moving towards oil independence: www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2013/05/25/american-energy-independence-great-shake/pO9Lsad4cVQvjdpyxMI1DO/story.htmlwhat will that mean for the oil Kenyans are banking on. I have also heard about Kenya's great find in "rare earth minerals", which, it appears might not exist to the extent claimed. But let's assume that they do. First, "rare earths" are in fact not very rare; they exist all over the place. Countries like the USA got out of the business because of the enormous costs to the environment and human health that they cause: why not get them from a place where human life is cheap? But with the Chinese last year playing hardball with the stuff, there are USA companies looking to get back into the business. What does that mean for future prices? Kenya is now turning East and borrowing huge sums of money, yet in the last 20 years Kenya has twice been unable to pay its foreign debt. In 1994 they were relatively high, but that was not the case in 2000. See Figure 36 here: www.princeton.edu/economics/seminar-schedule-by-prog/macro-s10/papers/Reinhardt-Chartbook.pdfDo Kenyans really care? I doubt it. The Chinese will bring in their equipment and people, thus killing the local industry, but Kenyans will see lots of Chinese running around, building stuff, and praise the heavens that the Chinese are there to give them stuff. What does one say in such circumstances? One great Kenyan president said kazi iendelee. Another said accept and move on. Kenya vs. China (the new saviours). Take a look at this (1963 and 2013: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kenya%27s_GDP_per_capita_since_independence.png
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Post by danielwaweru on Aug 24, 2013 7:26:32 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: Kenya is now turning East and borrowing huge sums of money, yet in the last 20 years Kenya has twice been unable to pay its foreign debt. In 1994 they were relatively high, but that was not the case in 2000. See Figure 36 here: www.princeton.edu/economics/seminar-schedule-by-prog/macro-s10/papers/Reinhardt-Chartbook.pdfDo Kenyans really care? I doubt it. The Chinese will bring in their equipment and people, thus killing the local industry, but Kenyans will see lots of Chinese running around, building stuff, and praise the heavens that the Chinese are there to give them stuff. What does one say in such circumstances? One great Kenyan president said kazi iendelee. Another said accept and move on. Kenya vs. China (the new saviours). Take a look at this (1963 and 2013: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kenya%27s_GDP_per_capita_since_independence.png Your numbers are old. The IMF's 2013 debt-sustainability exercise found that Kenya's debt was sustainable. Total debt was c. 43% of GDP, divided about evenly between foreign and domestic; it had fallen from about 48%; the ratio of debt funded by bilateral deals had actually fallen. The key conclusions of the report* (p 7):
These numbers are hardly a secret, because they were reported in a number of Kenyan papers when published. See, inter alia, the Business Daily.
You also say
Jakaswanga: Do Kenyans really care? I doubt it. The Chinese will bring in their equipment and people, thus killing the local industry, but Kenyans will see lots of Chinese running around, building stuff, and praise the heavens that the Chinese are there to give them stuff.
These claims just don’t survive scrutiny. By 2006, Kenya exported almost as much in manufactured goods to China as it did the agricultural products --- both around 15% of exports (Here, I'm going by Michael Chege's numbers in his Economic Relations Between Kenya and China, 1963-2007). Second, Kenya’s imports from China do not appear to be driving Kenyan manufacturers out of business: Kenya’s manufacturing sector grew quite rapidly after 2003 (up to 7% in some years) in the exact same period which coincided with our most intense period of engagement with China. Our internal manufacturing sector, our manufactured exports to China, and our manufactured exports to our region all grew during our period of most intense engagement with China. Now, maybe the composition of our manufacturing changed --- maybe we moved from manufacturing some kinds of things to others; and this change was driven by China. But I haven't seen any real evidence that China is killing our manufacturing.
__
*Here's the full Debt sustainability analysis, dated 1.iv.2013.
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 24, 2013 11:22:02 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: Do Kenyans really care? I doubt it. The Chinese will bring in their equipment and people, thus killing the local industry, but Kenyans will see lots of Chinese running around, building stuff, and praise the heavens that the Chinese are there to give them stuff. These claims just don’t survive scrutiny. By 2006, Kenya exported almost as much in manufactured goods to China as it did the agricultural products --- both around 15% of exports (Here, I'm going by Michael Chege's numbers in his Economic Relations Between Kenya and China, 1963-2007). Second, Kenya’s imports from China do not appear to be driving Kenyan manufacturers out of business: Kenya’s manufacturing sector grew quite rapidly after 2003 (up to 7% in some years) in the exact same period which coincided with our most intense period of engagement with China. Our internal manufacturing sector, our manufactured exports to China, and our manufactured exports to our region all grew during our period of most intense engagement with China. Now, maybe the composition of our manufacturing changed --- maybe we moved from manufacturing some kinds of things to others; and this change was driven by China. But I haven't seen any real evidence that China is killing our manufacturing. --------------- *Here's the full Debt sustainability analysis, dated 1.iv.2013. Danielwaweru, That growth, skyrocketing from 2003, coinciding with intense fondling with the dragon, I think, is, reading the small print of the Forum on China Africa Co-operation [FOOCAC] set to continue the upward trend. Does not mean caution has to be thrown to the winds, but more later on that. Today: welcome back from .... Aaah, you have been on a sabbatical! Aah there is a rumour champion Jukwaaists who have been absent since the elections, have been doing consultancy services for Jubilee or Cord! While others were redeployed elsewhere after their tour of duty on Jukwaa came to an end with the elections! So which one has it been for you!? NB: Man-K [the man who pronounces Abyssinia as Ambithinia, has a major thread running ON BANKRUPTCY SCENARIOS, and we have landed on the issue of THE KENYAN DEBT. And thinking out aloud if we aint just crying wolf! Do join us there please! By the way Mank, I am still trying to complete the jump from historian to econometrist at your behest, and catch up on my figures on public debts, central banks and productive forces! I will be back! But you Daniel, seeing you have been absent, here is a reminder of something from the recent past. The source from where I gleaned these figures, an institute with its own models to process statistical and econometric data, far from the World Bank and IMF, has not yet revised this projection. The key as I understand it, also in the policy paper presented by the Chinese PM in the last China-Africa focus summit, is the identification of Kenya as beachhead for Chinese manufacturing in East [&C] Afrika, where East Afrika is defined as a + 200M consumer market in the widest: Rwanda-Burundi, Uganda -East DRC, S-Sudan-Lower Ethiopia, Tanzania-Malawi, upper Zambia and upper Mozambique. It is also in the offing that, the Central Bank of Kenya ---in the absense of a Kenyan State or Commercial Bank that can perform the gigantic function, becomes a 'RETAIL BANK' injecting liquidity into the other Central Banks. A kind of FED then. So we could conceive that, a portion of the 60% of $2.5 bn reserved for the CBK, is 'on route' to other banks in the region.As the Chinese establish more local companies in the area --see the FOOCAC resolutions to ''financially indigenise' the operation, they shall never suffer a credit drought locally. Their government is making sure the money is there. Historically speaking, from the experience of kina Mobutu and Arap Moi and SoForth, the African leaders are of course experts at kleptocracy and the Chinese money, left to such experts as our own Mpigs, could be gone faster than a fist into separate fingers, but that is where I for one study China with admiration. They ARE TAKING THE RISK. But if you look at how they enacted SECURITY in Chile, Zambia, Niger and the other godforsaken places they do, all I can say is: they are not your typical fools who are soon parted from their money![NB: China lost a lot in Libia by the ejection of Gaddafi after the West abused the UN no-fly zone resolution into regime change. But you saw new kid on the block Jinpin for days alone with Obama in a Californian ranch. A Taiwanese blogger reported and I paraphrase: "Jinpin tossed the Libyan check at Obama. If the USA was not picking up, China would would go full-blast in oil trade with Iran. Bursting sanctions until its lost Libyan fortune is recovered far past." This is a game of adults, and that is why elsewhere I wrote: ADULTS ONLY. Adult being a crude for 'ideologically mature'. That is, capable of running a global empire with an own homegrown vision. I do not fear China personally. What I fear for, Daniel, are a new breed of African chieftains whose minds are easily turned by, as Otishotish once said, a few beads and a few mirrors, and a bonus of black hair-dye! Where do you characterise the son of Jomo? an adult? or a barely a post infant lad, easily hypnotised by a mere mirror from China?
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 24, 2013 11:41:24 GMT 3
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 24, 2013 16:55:55 GMT 3
Your numbers are old. The IMF's 2013 debt-sustainability exercise found that Kenya's debt was sustainable. Total debt was c. 43% of GDP, divided about evenly between foreign and domestic; it had fallen from about 48%; the ratio of debt funded by bilateral deals had actually fallen. The key conclusions of the report* (p 7): The numbers are old because they are intended to show historical data; I referenced them to show the trend of Kenya's debt and when it ran into financial difficulties regarding foreign debt. I'm afraid even numbers produced today, for future projections, cannot change that history. What's more, if you look carefully, you will notice that I actually draw no conclusions from the material, except in my last paragraph, which "conclusion has to do with "whether anybody cares" about certain things; I will come to that in a bit. Nowhere have I claimed that Kenya's current debt is not sustainable. I would not do so for the very simply reason that I just don't know. In particular, a good chunk of what I wrote was simply an argument against the belief that Kenyans can borrow like crazy because they have stuff in the ground. My point was this: in the last 20 years Kenya has twice had serious problems with its foreign debt; that should not be forgotten a it enters another round of borrowing. Surely, that is not too unreasonable. First, when I ask " do Kenyans really care?", my starting point is this (1963 vs. now): (The data in this case go up to 2012, which is about as new as it gets, but, again, it is the overall trend that I am interested in.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kenya%27s_GDP_per_capita_since_independence.pngQuick summary of GDP per capita (PPP): 1963--Kenya about $1000, China about $520. 2012---Kenya about $1500, China about $11,000. When I see Kenya trooping off to China to ask for stuff, two thoughts immediately come to mind: One, look at where Kenya was in 1963 relative to China and where it is now. What happened to Kenya? Two, look at how much Kenya has "improved". Are things really getting better? Are there prospects that they will. Take a look at those graphs again. I'd rather hear about what Kenya is learning from China's progress rather than have all the noise about how cap-in-hand trips have been "successful". Second, the fact that Kenya's manufactured exports to China have increased over the years cannot be proof that cheap China's exports have not had an effect of Kenya's manufacturing sector. (See my last *** point below.) On the labour front, I am more comfortable with my statement: I have seen plenty of Chinese doing manual labour that could readily be done by idle Kenyans. If Kenyans are borrowing, why not give the jobs to Kenyans. (We'll save elephants and rhinos for another day.) Third, even if " by 2006, Kenya exported almost as much in manufactured goods to China as it did the agricultural products", the first question has to be "exactly how much?". I say that because "as much as" of very little is still very little. With Kenya exporting next to nothing in agricultural products, also exporting next to nothing in manufactured goods could hardly have been hardly a great achievement. So, what does the data say? Going by that paper you give, in 2006: * Yes, manufactured goods were about the same as agricultural products. But relatively, neither was that large. In each case, it is about $3 million. To my mind, Three million dollars in exports is hardly a number to get excited about. I don't see that the number necessarily tells us a great deal about Kenya's manufacturing capacity, but we may skip that for now. It, and any growth in "manufactured" exports to China, does not necessarily prove that Chinese junk has no effect on Kenya's manufacturing. That is because exports to a given country might increase on the basis of an opening market, favourable trade terms, lowering of prices, etc., even with the exporting country's manufacturing capacity at not growing or in decline. * Manufactured goods were about 15% of total exports to China, as you correctly note. However, in looking at such figures, I would look at the totality of non-manufactured goods (not just food), and those make up the other 85%. * I note Chege's argument that Chinese imports have not had the effect that people claim they have. Chege's numbers go up to 2006-2007, which makes them relatively old---older than the Maryland paper (that goes up to 2009-2010) which you described as old. Since that paper was written, imports from China have grown, by a huge factor (about four times), to about $1.6 billion per year. Also, more recently, I have noted several stories that might be regarded as mere "anecdotal evidence" but which should not be dismissed just like that. E. g. www.voanews.com/content/chinese-imports-threaten-kenyas-textile-workers-merchants/1700819.htmlThe people complaining are unlikely to find much comfort be being told " well, you must be wrong, because, see, several years ago, this very clever fellow wrote a paper that ..." and this: www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000087972&story_title=manufacturing-sector-has-failed-to-spur-jobsIt might be tempting to dismiss that too, on whatever grounds---and the article is indeed sloppy on a couple of points---but it does make some concrete points. Kenya's dreams of being an "industrialized country" by 2030 are all very well. But can it be done without a substantial growth in manufacturing? (Look at the Asian countries that in 1963 were as poor or poorer than Kenya. As I write this, the Asian Development Bank is warning its less-well-off members to forget the idea of skipping from agriculture, forgetting manufacturing, and going straight to services.) Can that substantial growth in manufacturing be achieved without some initial protection for local industry? (Again, look at the same countries.) Can a country like Kenya continue to absorb cheap Chinese imports at the current extraordinary rate without a substantial effect on its manufacturing sector? I also wrote that " but Kenyans will see lots of Chinese running around, building stuff, and praise the heavens that the Chinese are there to give them stuff".
That they do, from the manamba in the streets to some "big brains" in the major Kenyan media. One can never hear enough of the "superhighway" (all 50kms of it) that "the Chinese gave us". And there's more to come!
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Post by b6k on Aug 25, 2013 6:02:50 GMT 3
On to your questions: During the weekend I discussed some of these matters with a few Kenyans. They think Kenya can borrow all it wants because it can later pay back in oil. Now, as far as I know Kenya's great oil pool is estimated at something like 300 million barrels: www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenyas-oil-is-commercially/-/1056/1933026/-/lsf7v2/-/index.html* How much money is that at current market prices? * The amount of Kenya's great oil stock is about what the Saudis put out in one month. If prices go down, how long would it take them to lower their prices and finish the Kenyan market. This is the problem with relying on a rabid Afro-pessimist or KE hater for information! Indeed Tullow reported finding 300 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE): "Tullow estimates it has found more than 300 million barrels of oil equivalent resources after making three discoveries in Kenya’s South Lokichar Basin. In February, Twiga became the first well in Kenya to produce oil at a commercially viable rate and has the potential to produce 5,000 barrels a day." ...but that is NOT to be confused with projected oil deposits in KE confirmed by the very same Tullow Oil: "Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) discovered oil last year, Kenya is set to start shipments in 2016, overtaking neighboring Uganda, where Tullow found crude more than seven years ago. The U.K. explorer plans to start pumping in Kenya as soon as next year, Chief Operating Officer Paul McDade said in an interview. Kenya’s deposits may top 10 billion barrels, according to the company, more than three times the U.K.’s remaining reserves." ...and just how long has the UK (United Kingdom, that is) been drilling at the North Sea, my dear fellow, Otishotish? We'll be drilling oil well into the next century, if your western masters will allow us to retain ownership of our natural resources without resorting to gun boat diplomacy via AFRICOM. While UG is still busy negotiating their cut with Tullow, KE is poised to leapfrog them & become EA's first oil exporter under the Uhuru Kenyatta administration. How do you like them apples? "“Uganda missed the boat and Kenya will become the oil-sector hub,” John Small, chief executive officer of the Eastern Africa Association, said in an interview. “It only makes real commercial sense to cooperate and have linked pipeline network” in the region." You may pooh pooh KE all you like, but to paraphrase Elton John, even with all the naysayers of your ilk, we're still standing.... Read the full article here & cry me a river.... www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-19/kenya-from-nowhere-plans-east-africa-s-first-oil-exports-energy.html
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 25, 2013 11:19:12 GMT 3
Honestly many minds just blew up. IMF, WB, any financier you may know. Their minds short-circuited when the yellow devils started to talk MONEY. I'd be very interested to see actual figures of MONEY flowing into Africa from the various sources. Then we can make a solid comparison before we get excited. Africa and Africans will get ahead only when Africans wake up decide to take care of Africa and Africans.Learned Otishotish, as per the closing line. God's very truth. Apollon's oracle at Delphi would be hard pressed to come up with a day it made more sense than that you said of Africans. Rest assured we are working on it, though it is THE LONG WAKE UP! as in the long goodbye to Feudal Africa. But there is excitement around the country you can not deny. Uhuru's trip to China is a sealer. I think if Kenyatta 1 [the father] embedded us West, Kenyatta 2 [the son] done us East. Goodies galore, and it is a total bail-out, BUT, if we squander the loans, THE FUTURE GENERATION are in total DEBT BONDAGE. [I will check how much in $S we are now paying to external creditors as interest and refund, and for how lonG more; then add that to how much we will start repaying China, and when all the burden goes. Then we will have nice figures to conduct a Jukwaa civil war on that bankruptcy thread of Mank!] Aaa, Afrika! Important is this, Otishotish, China, to [1] offset the argument of using Afrika as a dump yard for its [cheap and substandard as snobs would have it] goods and [2]. raw economic financial dictates, ... is moving and is resolved to ESCALATE what is called IMPORT SUBSTITUTION industries in Afrika. Plans to negotiate for INDUSTRIAL MEGA PARK COMPLEXES, like the one they have launched in BELLORUSSIA, have not yet borne widespread fruition in Africa ----may be because we Africans were still a bit stunned by the economics of scale of modern capitalism . [Remember China built a modern appartment block in Loanda Angola, and it has become a ghost city, because the Angolans prefer to live in caves and plastic shacks !] www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18646243 -- Nova cidade de Kilamba I report this one to warn Dr. Evan Kidero of Nairobi with his China-messaged smile and spring in his step, that he needs to take a DEEP THOUGHT about what he lets fund! MASS PUBLIC HOUSING FOR WORKING CLASS RENTS, not home-ownership schemes of apartments costing $200,000 in Nairobi. Or there you are, custodian of your ghost estate a-la Kilamba in Loanda in Angola, while like a rigged taxi meter, the interest rate ticks turbo. And even if you have oil from Turkana, you still have slums, like they do in Angola. [But we say, culturally speaking, that Africans prefer to live in Kibera-like slums, than Kilamba-like apartments! ---Better explanations welcome of course!] NB: culturally speaking because in Kisumu, ladies may no longer sit in a certain way on all types of bodabodas. Cultural reasons which I suppose, must also mean they are better suited to slums than to high-rise apartments!Now, where was I. Oh yes, Bellorusia! BELLORUSSIAN model of operations in ETHIOPIATHUS culturally inhibited, we tend to have miniature, though still spectacular by our standards city projects in countries like Liberia. But this this one in Ethiopia is huge, at $ 2bn.www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/apr/30/chinese-investment-ethiopia-shoe-city If one considers the number of countries in which these mini-manufacture cities are or have been launched, then the cumulative figure becomes impressive. Africa is big. NB: DEBORA: deborahbrautigam.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/2003-close-encounters.pdf [always very informative to read Deborah Brautigam who has done a lot of work on China-Africa economic intimacy] COMPARE: CHINA BUILDS A $5 BILLION INDUSTRIAL CITY IN BELLORUSSIAwww.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/china-builds-eu-beachhead-with-5-billion-city-in-belarus.htmlNote: a HIGHLY-SKILLED WORK FORCE at less roughly 500$/month. Nuclear engineers at $700/month! and you pay clerks in Kenya 2000$/month! And we Kenyans want to operate competitively in the world market!? We are a joke and we know it! FOTON AND OTHER ASSEMBLY INDUSTRIAL PLANTS THAT UPPED OUR MANUFACTURE STATISTICSSmall-sclae they be, but to actual effect, 'small projects' like the Chinese FOTON motor assembly in Nairobi, and the is it Kingfisher motorbike plant in Nairobi were flagposts when they were launched, spearheads to drun-run the area. [Why CMC, DT Dobbie and the rest of the companies which used to dominate the motor import market of the established brands never fully went that way, is another story] but truth is, at the lower end of the market, a motorbike costing 65K at its launch, and a pick-up at 300K at its launch, was a riot all the way to East Congo, and Kenya, relatively, could be referred to in the region as a manufacturing giant. [Add a few others, and you get where the statistics come from, to equivocate the line: As our embrace with the yellow peril grew more intense, our manufacturing statistics erected. Could be put more elegantly, but we will leave clean language to Njakip! I do crude , he do style! The upper end of the market with their directly imported Mercs, Prados, Lamborginis, of course scoff at your boda-boda models, but just as the banks in the beginning scoffed at Safaricom's MPesa ---you could even send ksh. 20 bob [kobole] to another!--- only to wake up later that they had lost 60% or more of the consumer cash flow in the real economy: the elite is of course living in Lalaland. And anyway, they do not work for the money they spend, it is all taxpayers sweat ---On the bodaboda, which they spounge. But that is another story. Meanwhile can somebody tell me what happened to Labhsing-Hanansing: they had a full-scale workship in Industrial area Nairobi, and they built all the Kenya Bus hard bodies, lorry chasis, and pick-up rears. A mechanical industrial plant. I was a boy when an uncle of mine took me on a tour their, and he promised me when I grew big, I could work there, and if I studied mechanica, I would work there a s car-manufacturing engineer. well, did not work out that way! For nostalgia's sake, somebody tell me what happened to the workshop!
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 25, 2013 16:05:01 GMT 3
This is the problem with relying on a rabid Afro-pessimist or KE hater for information! Indeed Tullow reported finding 300 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE): b6k: Welcome back. The "Afro-pessimist" I confess to, but without the "rabid". The "KE hater", I deny. No, no, no. It is the problem on relying on Kenyan media, which as you can see, is a problem for me too. Thanks for pointing out the Bloomberg article. A pity that to get accurate news about Kenya, on fairly important things, one has to go outside Kenya. Never mind ... borrow away. By the way, I do hope Kenya indeed has 10 billion barrels and that it does well with them and does not become another Nigeria. But a couple of points on that: (a) those are not "proven" oil reserves, "projections" being a different thing; (b) even with the 10 billion, my basic argument, relative to large suppliers, with proven reserves stands; (c) when you compare with the UK, the keyword is the "remaining", i.e. it is not a comparison with what the UK had to start with (so don't get worked up about how long the UK has been drilling).
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Post by b6k on Aug 25, 2013 16:28:26 GMT 3
b6k: Welcome back. The "Afro-pessimist" I confess to, but without the "rabid". The "KE hater", I deny. No, no, no. It is the problem on relying on Kenyan media, which as you can see, is a problem for me too. Thanks for pointing out the Bloomberg article. A pity that to get accurate news about Kenya, on fairly important things, one has to go outside Kenya. Never mind ... borrow away. Otishotish, I never went anywhere to be welcomed back. Just on lurking mode, busy doing my bit to build the nation. KE is sitting on a bonanza in terms of potential oil reserves. If it pans out as per the projections (10 billion barrels), we could even file an application to join OPEC. To say that is fairly important is a bit of an understatement. KE is at a crossroads... Naturally I also share your concerns on relying purely on KE media hence my search beyond to the mighty Bloomberg. However to be fair to our press, they did report that Tullow claimed their initial calculations were a tad conservative. After all, this is Sparta Jukwaa where your facts must be the whole truth & nothing but.... On Afro-pessimism & KE hating, the jury is still out. We are yet to hear that your application to renew your burnt KE passport & national ID has been approved in this era of dual citizenship
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Post by jakaswanga on Aug 25, 2013 19:31:55 GMT 3
Otishotish, I never went anywhere to be welcomed back. Just on lurking mode, busy doing my bit to build the nation. KE is sitting on a bonanza in terms of potential oil reserves. If it pans out as per the projections (10 billion barrels), we could even file an application to join OPEC. To say that is fairly important is a bit of an understatement. KE is at a crossroads... Naturally I also share your concerns on relying purely on KE media hence my search beyond to the mighty Bloomberg. However to be fair to our press, they did report that Tullow claimed their initial calculations were a tad conservative. After all, this is Sparta Jukwaa where your facts must be the whole truth & nothing but.... On Afro-pessimism & KE hating, the jury is still out. We are yet to hear that your application to renew your burnt KE passport & national ID has been approved in this era of dual citizenship Dear Afro-Pessimist, Dear Afro-Optimist, I believe Uhuru Kenyatta did well in Beijin. But I have a parable from Naijaland! Lets hear it! JUST last month, July 9 2013, Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria was where Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya was, in Beijin. And Goodluck too, his name says it all, full kikapuof foofoo breaking his back, had a juicy send off from our modern El-Dorado. He got the loans he needed, and which he could not get elsewhere, despite his oil portfolio. That is right. African paradox . Nigeria swims in oil and money. But she needs loans from China. transparencyng.com/index.php/news-categories/117-politics/8011-jonathan-goes-to-china-as-nigeria-gets-1-1b-chinese-loanNaturally, the explanation is simple, straight forward and clearcut. www.businessinsider.com/africas-largest-oil-exporter-lost-billions-of-dollars-through-corrupt-dealings-in-the-past-decade-2012-10Yes, you can have it all, natural resources. But when you make sure it is lost. It counts for nothing. That is, the oil sector, employing some of the best Nigerian graduates from the United states Ivy leagues, is specifically designed to loose the country money! ---And send the president on a begging trip to China. That is, China is loaning Nigeria the amount she owes the country in oil cash! And the Nigerians went to bow with 14 cabinet ministers for it, plus the whole of their business elite in the presidential plane. --But I have seen worse in my life so this Nigerian sense of humour is nothing. Morsi the dethroned of Egypt went to sign a $5 bn loan in a country housing $60M of the Mubarak fortune! So you see thing still can get worse! When Naijans will go for loans to the countries housing the Obasanjo-Baba-Buhari-Abatcha fortunes! But the great news, is that some of Nigeira's business wealthiest with no connection to politics [like the famous trilliadair ex General head of states] did not make their fortunes from OIL! Nor by oil patronage! Alla Akhbar! allafrica.com/stories/201307190127.html?page=2 That is the light at the end of the tunnel Hossana Hossana Alleluya! The other one, is just that we become sensible and do the right thing. Stop collapsing our own countries and economies through theft and blatant robbery of resources. But, where Nigeria goes, Kenya goes they say!. So in a few years, this report of the missing billions of Nigerian oil money, may be a Kenyan story ----Uhuru Kenyatta willing!
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 25, 2013 20:18:21 GMT 3
Jakaswanga: "Nigeria has secured a $1.1 billion Chinese loan."A guy has a 500-shilling note in his pocket. He takes it out and throws it into the fire. He then goes to the guy next door---who already owes him 20 shillings!---to borrow 10 shillings. When he returns, his wife and kids praise him for getting something. A little story: I once read somewhere that Sani Abacha had stolen something like $4 billion to $5 billion. I thought it was a ridiculous, made-up figure---that nobody could possibly steal that much. Until they arrested his son. Then the mother agreed to return $1 billion if they freed him. And she did! That was on top of $1 billion the Abachas had already "willingly" returned to "help" the country. ("Willingly" and "help" because they maintain that all the money was legally acquired.) By the way, that was just what they had in the bank. This was quite a hit of news at the time it happened: "immediately after Abacha’s death in 1998, his wife was stopped at Lagos airport with 38 suitcases full of cash and on investigation his son was found to have US$ 100 million in cash". www.mha-consulting.com/sites/default/files/MHA%20BRIEFING%20-%20The%20link%20between%20money%20laundering%20and%20corruption_1.pdfSo, how much did Abacha really steal? I thought Kenya was catching up with Nigeria in eating, but I think they have some ways to go. This is from a few months ago: newsrescue.com/nigeria-uncovers-n3-2-trillion-18-billion-abacha-loot-in-french-switzerland-other-foreign-banks-sunnews/#axzz2d0AgBdbwyours Afro-Pessimist
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Post by OtishOtish on Aug 26, 2013 2:09:26 GMT 3
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Post by b6k on Aug 26, 2013 9:00:35 GMT 3
Dear Afro-Pessimist, Dear Afro-Optimist, I believe Uhuru Kenyatta did well in Beijin. But I have a parable from Naijaland! Lets hear it! JUST last month, July 9 2013, Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria was where Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya was, in Beijin. And Goodluck too, his name says it all, full kikapuof foofoo breaking his back, had a juicy send off from our modern El-Dorado. He got the loans he needed, and which he could not get elsewhere, despite his oil portfolio. That is right. African paradox . Nigeria swims in oil and money. But she needs loans from China. transparencyng.com/index.php/news-categories/117-politics/8011-jonathan-goes-to-china-as-nigeria-gets-1-1b-chinese-loanNaturally, the explanation is simple, straight forward and clearcut. www.businessinsider.com/africas-largest-oil-exporter-lost-billions-of-dollars-through-corrupt-dealings-in-the-past-decade-2012-10Yes, you can have it all, natural resources. But when you make sure it is lost. It counts for nothing. That is, the oil sector, employing some of the best Nigerian graduates from the United states Ivy leagues, is specifically designed to loose the country money! ---And send the president on a begging trip to China. That is, China is loaning Nigeria the amount she owes the country in oil cash! And the Nigerians went to bow with 14 cabinet ministers for it, plus the whole of their business elite in the presidential plane. --But I have seen worse in my life so this Nigerian sense of humour is nothing. Morsi the dethroned of Egypt went to sign a $5 bn loan in a country housing $60M of the Mubarak fortune! So you see thing still can get worse! When Naijans will go for loans to the countries housing the Obasanjo-Baba-Buhari-Abatcha fortunes! But the great news, is that some of Nigeira's business wealthiest with no connection to politics [like the famous trilliadair ex General head of states] did not make their fortunes from OIL! Nor by oil patronage! Alla Akhbar! allafrica.com/stories/201307190127.html?page=2 That is the light at the end of the tunnel Hossana Hossana Alleluya! The other one, is just that we become sensible and do the right thing. Stop collapsing our own countries and economies through theft and blatant robbery of resources. But, where Nigeria goes, Kenya goes they say!. So in a few years, this report of the missing billions of Nigerian oil money, may be a Kenyan story ----Uhuru Kenyatta willing! Naijaland is one of the worst examples of how to run a country that is blessed with oil resources. Let's hope that KE, having been historically a natural resources starved nation, can continue to invest in its most important resource...the human element, & at the very least stay one step ahead of the rest of Afrika...
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Post by jakaswanga on May 21, 2017 9:58:56 GMT 3
HERE COMES THE OBOR, NO MORE OBLOMOVS PLEASE! May 2017, Beijing.While political Washington embroils itself in a feast on own entrails, the world has not stopped. Rome is not what it used to be, the center of the civilised world. There's been other stuff to marvel at in the same week. For instance the OBOR. There is also the turn-out record Iranian presidential election, which has reconfirmed Hassan Rouhani in the first round, taking place simultaneously as Donald Trump extorted a multi-billion arms protection ransom from the House of Saud ----- $109 billion in arms sales, $350 billion in direct U.S. investment over 10 years. There was much pomp and ceremony with zombie-like King, like a voodoo puppet, fished out of self-soiling confinement, gracing the occasion with his half-dead smiles. John Kerry's replacement, former oil-man Rex Tillerson, meanwhile gave a press conference flanked by his Saudi counterpart Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeiri. They re-iterated Iran's terrorist sponsorship and the joint US-Saudi determination to combat its evil extremism. Comparing the Riyadh show with pictures from Tehran, and thinking of the old FBI hound contracted in Washington to smell the POTUS's dirty laundry, I can't stifle the feeling Trump and his party, even if it a 10,000 jobs creating exercise with the bonus of taking care of Israel's interests, are on the wrong side of history in the middle east. Iran is far, far stabler than Saudi Arabia, far, far more modernised in its thinking, and arming Saudi Arabia to the teeth is a suicidal priming. Obama's instincts were right. Rex Tillerson talks with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Mohammed bin Salman , Riyadh May 20 2017.U.S. President Donald Trump dances with a sword as he arrives to a welcome ceremony by Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud at Al Murabba Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia May 20, 2017. But before all that stuff in the middle east this weekend, Beijin was the place where it was happening, mid week. The unfolding of the new world order. CHINA'S OBOR PROJECT Xi Jin Pin and his fake red-blood types running the PRC could have come up with it as just another possibility to export excess capacity, but it has grown into more, and more, and sped off the bottle, like that story from the Arabian nights. To be more correct, the genesis is a historical line, nearly linear. Xi's immediate predecessor Hu Jin Tao launched the GOING OUT phace of the policy, built on, remember, Deng's 'Open Window' which was followed by ' OPEN DOOR'! It is a managed metamorphosis. You might have seen a (nature documentary of a) freshly-born antelope calf groggily rise to its feet, then, tentatively making the first steps, discovering its running instincts and waking up to its destiny: to outrace predators or be their meal. To that purpose, within minutes, the fresher tests its anatomy and picks up speed, and is already beyond the claws of an amateur leopard or lame cheetah. It is a jungle out there; full alert is to live long and procreate. Letting down guard a second is be another's dinner. So do I see China and the OBOR project. ONE BELT ONE ROAD (Major Beijing conference May 14-16th 2017). If Xi ever sought a mandate qualifiable by Heaven, this is it, China on the wings a-cruise, like a migratory bird hit the fair winds. China is thrusting ahead with the right historical currents. A hint at the scale. Poor Yemen, so close to Saudi's billions, so far from their investment! But that is another story. Xi Jin Pin and his PRC have to grow up fast and show some running leg in the jungle, or be the frog in the jaws of a snake. 1. The USA has moved from MAD to a winnable nuclear war. And that is no lie. Interesting diagrams of how the post limited nuclear war war looks like! The famous Obama-announced Asia Pivot is to contain China in a box. That means confine her to a lesser, 2nd-tier power subservient to the US of A, forever. 3. The USA wont back down unless presented with irrefutable factollogy of its weakness or demise, in the event she enacts such stupidity as a pre-emptive nuclear strike. 4. Eclipsed White Power is equal to suicidal Trauma. China must play the world therapist. China must assume the role of a Nelson Mandela, re-assuring insane white supremacists that 300 years of humuliation wont be punished with equivalent exactitude. Talking about historical currents (while DC is all dog it dog currently --with the renegade white house against the renegade security bosses and their Clintonian attack-dog press-core), traditional Euripean allies Europeann hedging their bets, subtly. The EU, breathless after the Le Pen scare in France which followed hot on Brexit, while still being driven mad by the current Teresa May hysterics, sent high-powered delegation, howbeit just like the busybee Brits! The most interesting denunciation has come from segments of worried Indian-Hindu nationalism: they reckon OBOR is an incipient evil, a mask for a fate worse than Colonialism! They implored President Mordi to be recalcitrant, warning him Pakistan is already so deep in China's pocket, China is a mortal enemy! (howbeit business people see in China their natural market. Mordi was in a fix!) In other words, nationalist narrative-wise, the biggest liberal democracy (caste-ridden India) senses it has lost the battle for the near future to their fellow Asian rivals. India is no competitor to China. China is an ambitious capitalist monster dragon masquerading as a communist state propagating alternative relationships, and it has no plans for future deference to another hegemon! More about that Asiatic brotherly feud elsewhere. If one checks the OBOR shipping lines or trade routes, one notices Mombasa Kenya, or is it Dar in Tz, or Kismayo in Somalia, is the beach point on the East Coast of Africa. Selected large Chinese-invested infrastructure projects in Africa, needs upgrade 2017. Our own Ouru kenyatta, peace be upon his windy ass, was a big presence in Beijing. He left the irrelevant Somali conference in London in a huff to be where it mattered. This was a routine chore no doubt, a kind of vassal's call on the emperor, but of late our excellency has let a lot of chores evolve into impossible climb moutains. Routine chores like the daily Ugali at ksh.90 which shot up to an abominable ksh.160/2kg package before Ouru, like a folded OBLOMOV, lifted his lazy arz off his state bed, fearing the unga revolution. But it was nice to see Ouru meeting Vladimir Putin on a serious note, and Bi Amina inviting Sergii Lavrov to Kenya. Better late than never, silly gal. She should have invited Lavrov first week of duty after her appointment. Why? To discuss Somalia of course so that now, during the EAC conference in Daresalaam, Somalia would be there as an equal and united republic!Putin and Erdogan are a pair, and Turkey is the greatest investor in Somalia, and, wait for it, the largest trainer of Somali students at the highest levels! (Now you tell me if you do not think China, Russia, Kenya, Tz and Turkey working on Somalia wouldn't snuff out the turmoil in 5 years!) We will come to this Turkey point elsewhere when we discuss Germany's sad sigh during her 'MARSHALL PLAN FOR AFRICA' catch up momentum Yap, Bi Amina, you faking late gal. If Jubilee wins you should be fired for negligence. Somali would now be long peaceful, and railways being built from Kismayo to Garissa, those Al-Shabaab boys pushing wheelbarrows and lifting steel! NB: which brings me to Patrick Njoroge of the Central Bank. I was searching for his photos in Beijin, where our ace meets Beijinge capital export Bankers and introduces himself as the competent man to manage the ten billions of dollars of the ONE CONTINET CHAPTER of OBOR [/i]...[/quote] If Njoroge wasn't in Beijing closing deals, but stayed in Nairobi to fill fraudulent vouchers of imported rotten maize, then I am fakd! His negligence and stupidity would be stunning, criminal. NOMINATED AFRICAN HUB!
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Post by jakaswanga on Sept 4, 2018 21:59:48 GMT 3
Before he went to Beijin last weekend, Ouru Kenyatta had whirlwind itinerary: Washington DC Trump, POTUS, then back home to host Lady Teresa May of ... the not too United Kingdom, or the no longer so great Britain. So there is a message PORK carried to Beijin. That is to FOCAC 2018. There has beed a domestic surprise for Xi Jin Pin, the host.
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Post by jakaswanga on Oct 1, 2018 20:43:38 GMT 3
PLO LUMUMBA SECURITY RISK IN ZAMBIA, DID CHINA PUSH ZAMBIA?
Professor Lumumba was going to give a lecture on China and Africa --and he was no doubt primed to take jibes at African governments which, on a platter because of stupidity, more criminal stupidity and corruption, hand over the natural resources of Africa to creditors from afar, both private and parastate.
Such traitors are of course leading Africa into debt bondage and a new age of colonialism! Not sure if Kenya is following any different a path from Zambia's!
The incompetent, corrupt and useless government of Zambia would consider that kind of talk incendiary, likely to incite an already restive university into more radical action! Rumours have it, like Sri Lanka and Angola, the Zambian government has ceded sovereignty in key areas containing loads of goodies; all agreements secret of course!
We saw deportation here with Miguna Miguna when he was declared persona non grata! Like the apartheid regime used to ban Winnie Mandela to one or other Bantustan, it is becoming a blueprint --no thinkers please, security risk!
These deportations are a horrific statement on the current calibre of African leaders! In fact it proves they are a dead-end. So they are insecure and guilty as charged. A waste of peoples time, but a very good investment to the likes of China and other predators out to control and loot Africa's vast resources. They could find no better allies in stupid African leaders selling all for a song, or, remember, giving gold and ivory for mirrors and beads, and lots of slaves along!
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Post by wanyee on Dec 31, 2018 18:18:20 GMT 3
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Post by wanyee on Jan 14, 2019 14:25:55 GMT 3
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Post by wanyee on Jan 21, 2019 8:12:21 GMT 3
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Post by wanyee on Jan 25, 2019 20:37:18 GMT 3
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