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Post by nok on Feb 13, 2012 18:31:56 GMT 3
Corridors of Power The Star Is this true or just a rumour
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Post by b6k on Feb 13, 2012 19:05:33 GMT 3
Okolowaka, as if on cue care to explain why Ababu Namwamba was last seen gallivanting with Wetangula in Ford Kenya's Bungoma rally? Namwamba now claims the two parties share the same vision. Wetangula, on his part, has stated that Ford K will support ODM AFTER the elections are through. Sounds very much like my prediction of shifting alliances, as Ford K ditches PNU, is coming to pass . The future is "Azurri"! ...Publicly declaring the intent to co-operate, partner, and form a coalition with ODM after the elections like Wetangula says is provided for in the Katiba, democratic and legal. There are laid down rules and regulations that must be followed; like making any agreements formal, ratifying and filing this intent and "depositing the instruments of this agreement" as provided for in the Katiba with the registrar of parties before we can shout HURRAH! Kenya must change because the Katiba demands it.... Those who still believe in the politics of "thorax" or "godfather" will be snookered big time. If ODM and FORD Kenya want to go this route then so be it... The future is still Orange...with a sprinkle of this and that, here and there.... ;D Absolutely. The constitution allows it & so far the way Wetangula & Namwamba are working towards it is legal. Mark my words though, the last stable government we had was Moi's in '97-'02. It's going to be a rocky rode up ahead.
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Post by b6k on Feb 13, 2012 19:12:09 GMT 3
Corridors of Power The Star Is this true or just a rumour NOK, I saw nominated MP Rachel Shebesh disclose this on Citizen's Breakfast Show this morning. She didn't mention Nyongo by name but she did confirm this was an idea that was tabled & Mudavadi "ran with it". The early bird catches the worm . As to the anger, maybe Phil could fill us in.
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Post by adongo23456 on Feb 13, 2012 19:53:54 GMT 3
Corridors of Power The Star Is this true or just a rumour NOK, I saw nominated MP Rachel Shebesh disclose this on Citizen's Breakfast Show this morning. She didn't mention Nyongo by name but she did confirm this was an idea that was tabled & Mudavadi "ran with it". The early bird catches the worm . As to the anger, maybe Phil could fill us in. The one thing the media is not talking about in the attempt to paint the county issue as the big divide in ODM is that it is the ODM delegates, already elected, who will vote. Whether the delegates vote at the county or at the NDC will not make that much of a difference in terms of who will vote. It is the same people. I think what ODM needs to agree on is that the delegates will vote in a secret ballot. That way there will be no intimidation factor and the delegates can eat the money and vote whoever they want. The big spin about an imminent ODM split being peddled by the usual suspects does not surprise me one bit. Interestingly the Mutahi Ngunyis who predicetd Kenya will not have a new constitution and who have told us a thousand ways that NARA will die and Kibaki take over everything are busy predicting the ODM demise. Sometimes listening to the Ngunyis will help you undestand what will NOT happen. Things always seem to go the opposite of what the prophets like Ngunyi say.
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Post by phil on Feb 13, 2012 21:02:28 GMT 3
@adongo
The average Kenyan voter is alive to these facts that you so aptly put across. Although not all of us accept this fact, in the new constitutional dispensation, it gonna be very difficult to defeat an idea whose time has come and my view is that 2012 will be child's play when compared to the battles of 2007 or 2002.
If there is any sector that needed comprehensive reform in Kenya, it is media. No wonder Kenyans now rely more on social media and blogs than on the so called mainstream media.
I just changed channels in prime time news.
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Post by b6k on Feb 13, 2012 21:55:39 GMT 3
@ Adongo, is the media really saying there's an imminent split in ODM or that there's a potential of changing of the flag-bearer? Those are two different things. Any ODM split will only occur if the one who's accustomed to having his way finds himself playing second fiddle to his erstwhile understudy. The understudy is used to remaining in the shadow of his mentor so if he loses, the status quo will prevail. Will the mentor remain on board or leave in a huff, as has been his MO through the years, IF the tables are turned? That is the question... Meanwhile I saw Isaac Ruto stating that Mudavadi's quest is a futile one since delegates votes, wherever they decide to vote, will be manipulated as they have always been in the past
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Post by phil on Feb 13, 2012 22:19:11 GMT 3
@ Adongo, is the media really saying there's an imminent split in ODM or that there's a potential of changing of the flag-bearer? Those are two different things. Any ODM split will only occur if the one who's accustomed to having his way finds himself playing second fiddle to his erstwhile understudy. The understudy is used to remaining in the shadow of his mentor so if he loses, the status quo will prevail. Will the mentor remain on board or leave in a huff, as has been his MO through the years, IF the tables are turned? That is the question... Meanwhile I saw Isaac Ruto stating that Mudavadi's quest is a futile one since delegates votes, wherever they decide to vote, will be manipulated as they have always been in the past Hold it right there buddy! What guarantee is there that Mudavadi must be the running mate if Raila wins, and that Raila must retire if he loses? Let's imagine a situation where in future, prior to primaries, Raila goes around the counties with Ngilu, Wetangula, Kosgey, Karua and/or all of the above minus Mudavadi, and then clinches the ODM presidential ticket with any/all of them. Will Mudavadi have any grounds to claim the running mate ticket given Kenya's fast changing political landscape? This is a venture fraught with risks and we have to live up to those risks. After all the same katiba Mudavadi so loves quoting has a way of dealing with losers of the presidential ticket. Do you know what the ODM constitution says about nomination of a running mate? I bet you do not, yours is an assumption. Of all people, Isaac Ruto is one of the persons who have been sending feelers because of heat from the ground and also because there is interest in flying some flag. He can say anything as one who has pledge loyalty to URP. Its a case of sour grapes.
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Post by adongo23456 on Feb 13, 2012 22:51:39 GMT 3
@ Adongo, is the media really saying there's an imminent split in ODM or that there's a potential of changing of the flag-bearer? Those are two different things. Any ODM split will only occur if the one who's accustomed to having his way finds himself playing second fiddle to his erstwhile understudy. The understudy is used to remaining in the shadow of his mentor so if he loses, the status quo will prevail. Will the mentor remain on board or leave in a huff, as has been his MO through the years, IF the tables are turned? That is the question... Meanwhile I saw Isaac Ruto stating that Mudavadi's quest is a futile one since delegates votes, wherever they decide to vote, will be manipulated as they have always been in the past We have been saying all along that the venue of voting is not the big issue some were manufacturing it to be. ODM already elected its delegates who will vote for the candidates as per ODM constitution. It makes little difference where they vote. Some people jumped on the county business thinking this is another Kalonzo move where Kalonzo wanted a "General Election" model to elect an ODM candidate even though there was no such requirement in the ODM constitution. Kalonzo then used that to steal the party certificate and go. When it came to ODM K they didn't even have delegates electing the nominee. It was just Kalonzo and Julia Ojiambo whom Kalonzo used and dumped somewhere. Essentially the big agenda being peddled as the make or break for ODM is a none issue for the most part but if it keeps some people entertained that is fine with me. ODM will be the first party to choose their nominee and in a situation where there is no incumbent waiting to hit the road that is a pretty good place to be. When the other parties start fighting it out ODM will be in a good spot to take full advantage of the fall out.
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Feb 13, 2012 22:55:48 GMT 3
@ Adongo, is the media really saying there's an imminent split in ODM or that there's a potential of changing of the flag-bearer? Those are two different things. Any ODM split will only occur if the one who's accustomed to having his way finds himself playing second fiddle to his erstwhile understudy. The understudy is used to remaining in the shadow of his mentor so if he loses, the status quo will prevail. Will the mentor remain on board or leave in a huff, as has been his MO through the years, IF the tables are turned? That is the question... Meanwhile I saw Isaac Ruto stating that Mudavadi's quest is a futile one since delegates votes, wherever they decide to vote, will be manipulated as they have always been in the past Hold it right there buddy! What guarantee is there that Mudavadi must be the running mate if Raila wins, and that Raila must retire if he loses? Let's imagine a situation where in future, prior to primaries, Raila goes around the counties with Ngilu, Wetangula, Kosgey, Karua and/or all of the above minus Mudavadi, and then clinches the ODM presidential ticket with any/all of them. Will Mudavadi have any grounds to claim the running mate ticket given Kenya's fast changing political landscape? This is a venture fraught with risks and we have to live up to those risks. After all the same katiba Mudavadi so loves quoting has a way of dealing with losers of the presidential ticket. Do you know what the ODM constitution says about nomination of a running mate? I bet you do not, yours is an assumption. Of all people, Isaac Ruto is one of the persons who have been sending feelers because of heat from the ground and also because there is interest in flying some flag. He can say anything as one who has pledge loyalty to URP. Its a case of sour grapes. Phil, You are saying exactly what your party does not want to say. Either Mudavadi walked straight into the trap by his detractors within ODM, or he has already made up his mind that he will be on the ballot regardless of the nominations' outcome.
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Post by b6k on Feb 13, 2012 22:56:18 GMT 3
Hold it right there buddy! What guarantee is there that Mudavadi must be the running mate if Raila wins, and that Raila must retire if he loses? Let's imagine a situation where in future, prior to primaries, Raila goes around the counties with Ngilu, Wetangula, Kosgey, Karua and/or all of the above minus Mudavadi, and then clinches the ODM presidential ticket with any/all of them. Will Mudavadi have any grounds to claim the running mate ticket given Kenya's fast changing political landscape? This is a venture fraught with risks and we have to live up to those risks. After all the same katiba Mudavadi so loves quoting has a way of dealing with losers of the presidential ticket. Do you know what the ODM constitution says about nomination of a running mate? I bet you do not, yours is an assumption. Of all people, Isaac Ruto is one of the persons who have been sending feelers because of heat from the ground and also because there is interest in flying some flag. He can say anything as one who has pledge loyalty to URP. Its a case of sour grapes. Phil you have a point there. There's no guarantee Mudavadi will be the automatic running mate once the dust settles. In fact his chances will shrink in direct proportion to the spirit or passion his fight for the top seat takes. He's betting the farm on this one. But you know the old adage, high risk, high returns. Feel free to inbox me the ODM constitution. It's always good to compare the ideals against the reality. As for Isaac Ruto, why have you suddenly done a Keter on him?
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Post by Mobimba on Feb 13, 2012 22:56:53 GMT 3
Given the gusto by which Mudavadi is going for the top ODM seat, critics must accept that indeed the party is so far allowing for democratic space.
In fact, it is democratic for those who support Raila and oppose Mudavadi or vice versa to freely air their views on their preferred nomination process. Going by reports, both sides are getting sufficient media play. Should Raila publicly support the delegates conference, folks should not go wild because, like Mudavadi proposing votes in the counties, he too has a right to propose his preferred process. In the end, it is the delegates who will vote on the nomination process after which both Raila and Mudavadi should accept.
That said, should Raila/ Mudavadi opt to bolt out of ODM after loosing the ticket, again, it is their democratic right. It happens all the time in modern democracies. Our constitution allows for independent candidatures. If one believes they have been aggrieved within the mainstream political parties and think they have a constituency out there, it’s their right to run independently, with or without the ‘sore looser’ branding. It is not an abuse of the system.
In the meantime, let's await they who will challenge Ruto for URP, Kalonzo for Wiper etc. That's where the comedy begins.
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Post by phil on Feb 14, 2012 12:42:41 GMT 3
Charity Ngilu is expected to be the third person to delcare interest in the ODM presidential ticket. Ngilu has posed this question to her facebook followers: Should i go for presidential under odm or narc? Over ninety percent of the respondents so far have told her to take the route tot he presidency via the ODM ticket. Ngilu's entry into the ODM nomination race will bring interesting developments into the nomination matrix previously assumes to have only two contestants.
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Post by nok on Feb 14, 2012 12:53:26 GMT 3
Charity Ngilu is expected to be the third person to delcare interest in the ODM presidential ticket. Ngilu has posed this question to her facebook followers: Should i go for presidential under odm or narc? Over ninety percent of the respondents so far have told her to take the route tot he presidency via the ODM ticket. Ngilu's entry into the ODM nomination race will bring interesting developments into the nomination matrix previously assumes to have only two contestants. Indeed this is a very welcomed development. I must say that this offers a way to find out how the gender-voting-tendencies within ODM / the country at large may look like and secondly, it offers a fair way of getting / identifying the most suitable running mate because as far as am concerned, ODM also does not have a modus operandi on this matter. Interesting times I say!
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Post by kamalet on Feb 14, 2012 12:54:03 GMT 3
Charity Ngilu is expected to be the third person to delcare interest in the ODM presidential ticket. Ngilu has posed this question to her facebook followers: Should i go for presidential under odm or narc? Over ninety percent of the respondents so far have told her to take the route tot he presidency via the ODM ticket. Ngilu's entry into the ODM nomination race will bring interesting developments into the nomination matrix previously assumes to have only two contestants. I think she is being politicall delusional
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Post by jakaswanga on Feb 14, 2012 20:44:01 GMT 3
Phil, Are any numbers known on the preference of the general public in a two way race between Mudavadi and UK for state house?
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Post by phil on Feb 14, 2012 22:24:13 GMT 3
Phil, Are any numbers known on the preference of the general public in a two way race between Mudavadi and UK for state house? Not that I am aware of but I have no doubt either that Mudavadi would beat Uhuru hands down in a two-horse race. But that scenario aint gonna happen soon. I see a Raila vs Kalonzo contest as the more likely scenario come the next GE.
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Feb 15, 2012 0:15:35 GMT 3
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Post by b6k on Feb 15, 2012 7:42:16 GMT 3
Phil, Are any numbers known on the preference of the general public in a two way race between Mudavadi and UK for state house? Not that I am aware of but I have no doubt either that Mudavadi would beat Uhuru hands down in a two-horse race. But that scenario aint gonna happen soon. I see a Raila vs Kalonzo contest as the more likely scenario come the next GE. Jakaswanga, do you honestly believe Phil would divulge any such figures even if ODM conducted an internal study showing how different flag-bearers would rate? Not that I'm insinuating that they have. We'll have to leave it to the Synovates of this world to give us such scenarios...which I doubt they will.
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Post by kamalet on Feb 15, 2012 8:18:28 GMT 3
Phil, Are any numbers known on the preference of the general public in a two way race between Mudavadi and UK for state house? Not that I am aware of but I have no doubt either that Mudavadi would beat Uhuru hands down in a two-horse race. But that scenario aint gonna happen soon. I see a Raila vs Kalonzo contest as the more likely scenario come the next GE. Phil Are you actually serious that Mudavadi would beat Uhuru in a political contest? ? Not sure what you are smoking but this one you have it very wrong. As for a Raila vs Kalonzo contest, it would always depend on who else is on the race and who is propping up Kalonzo after he passed kati kati yao!
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Post by nok on Feb 15, 2012 12:34:01 GMT 3
phil , Jukwaa in general Is this just propaganda from a commentator in the star Newspaper or is there smoke originating from a small fire ??
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Post by mzee on Feb 15, 2012 13:55:16 GMT 3
phil , Jukwaa in general Is this just propaganda from a commentator in the star Newspaper or is there smoke originating from a small fire ?? Laugh aloud and move on.
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Post by phil on Feb 15, 2012 17:18:19 GMT 3
Phil Are you actually serious that Mudavadi would beat Uhuru in a political contest? ? Not sure what you are smoking but this one you have it very wrong. As for a Raila vs Kalonzo contest, it would always depend on who else is on the race and who is propping up Kalonzo after he passed kati kati yao! I am dead serious in so far as a two horse race goes. But it is not a possibility presently.
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Post by nok on Feb 16, 2012 15:00:44 GMT 3
www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/The+mystery+of+tribal+voting+/-/440808/1328232/-/item/1/-/xymama/-/index.htmlI beg to differ because I will either vote for a candidate from Nyanza or Maragoli if I was to vote amongst those who have presented themselves. Funny enough not for the one from my tribe. Because the short kenyan history as shown us that when we vote the one of my tribe it's me who suffers the most. Under a Kikuyu president the Kikuyu's have suffered most. Under a kalenjin president, the kalenjins suffered most. Am not talking about the few well connected from each tribe; Am talking about the vast majorities. I would love to see if this trend can be broken by a great
leader. Are we together ?
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Feb 16, 2012 23:11:52 GMT 3
Talk of party dictatorship, Mudavadi is now facing sanctions for opting to run for ODM's presidential nomination. It is very funny that the party (read Raila crowd) wants the two self-declared presidential candidates to campaign together. To say that is bizzarre would be an understatement. One would want to ask, what exactly does ODM-Raila see in Mudavadi that makes them fear him? Why are they uncomfortable with him running his own show? Why dont they want the delegates to decide in a fair contest? Why the night meetings to stop him from running? Be the judge: www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Plot+to+force+Mudavadi+out+of+race+/-/1064/1329128/-/sb5t8cz/-/index.html
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Post by mank on Feb 18, 2012 10:30:27 GMT 3
Talk of party dictatorship, Mudavadi is now facing sanctions for opting to run for ODM's presidential nomination. It is very funny that the party ... wants the two self-declared presidential candidates to campaign together.
To say that is bizzarre would be an understatement. One would want to ask, what exactly does ODM-Raila see in Mudavadi that makes them fear him? Why are they uncomfortable with him running his own show? Why dont they want the delegates to decide in a fair contest? Why the night meetings to stop him from running?
Be the judge:
www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Plot+to+force+Mudavadi+out+of+race+/-/1064/1329128/-/sb5t8cz/-/index.html
same arithmetic as Kalonzo's, if you ask me. ... you could want unity with a loser, so the supporters of the loser can be yours. Polytricians!
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