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Post by Onyango Oloo on Mar 18, 2013 21:56:59 GMT 3
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Post by kamalet on Mar 18, 2013 22:22:59 GMT 3
Oloo
Why this and it is not even covered in the Oraro petition? In fact this Weekly Citize story has already been posted here by Omwenga.
Are you guys now abandoning the Oraro petition in favour of propaganda that is not even substantiated ?
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Post by jakaswanga on Mar 18, 2013 22:54:07 GMT 3
This is the kind of thing which raises the cooking pot to fever-pitch. If true, it is pure treason. And the kind of demented treason I would not mind having men executed for. Jubilee and their allies must deny this quickly, if it is not true. They must seek legal redress and this printed infamy. And in fact Uhuruto, the two super beneficiaries of this alleged dastardly plot to derail the democratic process by a devious coup, must issue a public statement of Truth, dissociating themselves from this alleged act of national sabotage. O My, if true, then a season of anomy. Heads will roll. |
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Post by 50cents on Mar 19, 2013 3:43:04 GMT 3
Oloo Why this and it is not even covered in the Oraro petition? In fact this Weekly Citize story has already been posted here by Omwenga. Are you guys now abandoning the Oraro petition in favour of propaganda that is not even substantiated ? Its only that these guys had all the numbers on their side that God forbid that all these Raila helter skelter are just what they are: chaotic noise making. Uhuruto should have been the last guys to get themselves associated with this funky monkey fraud business. When word went round that the elections was stolen, instead of going round circling the boys and girls with the now infamous president-elect chorus, they should have acted too surprised and distanced themselves from the fraud announcement by the IECB. In fact, they should have held on to their horses till the court issue has gone through and cleared. Thanks to tyranny of numbers, Uhuruto should welcome re-run any time of the day as its known that with those "numbers" on their side, they will be able to kick Raila any time of the day in the bottom. |
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Post by 50cents on Mar 19, 2013 3:58:46 GMT 3
This is the kind of thing which raises the cooking pot to fever-pitch. If true, it is pure treason. And the kind of demented treason I would not mind having men executed for. Jubilee and their allies must deny this quickly, if it is not true. They must seek legal redress and this printed infamy. And in fact Uhuruto, the two super beneficiaries of this alleged dastardly plot to derail the democratic process by a devious coup, must issue a public statement of Truth, dissociating themselves from this alleged act of national sabotage. O My, if true, then a season of anomy. Heads will roll. Hahahaha!!! why are you surprised? Am never surprised and for your infor no heads will roll, Nada. Never rolled in the in the last 50years and will never. And come to think of it, even some voters ID were bought. And in case you are mad, it was on a "willing buyer willing seller". |
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Post by dubois on Mar 19, 2013 7:48:53 GMT 3
I just don't buy the theory that there was a grand scheme to rig elections and indeed, as someone else has mentioned, ODM has now fully blasted its propaganda machine. The aim, apart from completely discrediting IEBC and its chairman, is to make it "so convoluted that anyone can have a theory but no one has the facts". In fact CORD's petition does not point to a grand scheme but is consistent with tallying errors that were not premeditated.
There are several inconsistencies that sink this 'grand scheme' theory being propagated by ODM and affiliated civil society groups including:
1. Did the massive rigging happen right under the noses of international observers (who deemed the elections free and fair), political party agents and RAO himself who controls part of the government?
2. The issue about 'massive fraud' is only now coming to light. During the election week, both Cord and Jubilee raised concerns about the tallying process but no party, including ODM, suggested fraud to the scale that is now being implied. With absolutely no evidence I may add. Even Cord's petition does not touch on these grand theories.
3. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers but as contained in yesterday's DN opinion article. The author (I can't remember his name) argued that the GEMA and Kalenjin blocks makes up approx 30% and 17% of electoral votes in Kenya respectively. The author argued along the same lines as Ngunyi that any candidate that runs with the support of these two blocks is almost unbeatable. We saw a case of Kiambu county delivering more votes for Uhuru than Raila got in the whole of the former coast province. It is therefore irrelevant that Raila won in 6 provinces out of 8. The election results are very consistent with these percentages.
Until recent days, I have been of the opinion that a run off would be the best outcome to settle this thing conclusively. But now I have my doubts. Raila Odinga will accept nothing less than victory. ODM is already suggesting that IEBC is not credible. Kajwang recently stated that IEBC should be disbanded and UN staff invited to run the next round of elections. For a run off to be credible, in the eyes of Cord, we will need to create a new electoral commission, carry out fresh voter registration and then finally have elections. Think about the time-frame.
It was amusing to hear the PM talk about the Solomonic "baby". RAO is in fact the fake mother who is enthusiastically asking for the baby to be split. What RAO and ODM are aiming for is not a run off. They know they will face the same tyranny of numbers and get a second whopping. Instead they are aiming to stall this process through confusion and propaganda until such a time when we will be forced into another coalition government. It's now all up to the supreme court to end this madness.
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Post by mank on Mar 19, 2013 8:10:21 GMT 3
“It was a statistical impossibility. Between March 4th – March 7th, Raila Odinga was consistently stuck at 43/44% while Uhuru stayed at 53%. Musalia was stuck at 2.8% while the margin between Uhuru and Raila remained at 600,000-700,000 votes. This was impossible considering that results were coming in randomly from all over Kenya. Yet these figures remained consistent”.
Why is the above a statistical impossibility? A candidate's support cannot hoover around a certain percentage? How about Uhuru leading Raila by 600k - 700k? That a lot of play, is it not? I would even question whether the quotation is a true reflection of what was happening. I recall Raila leading Uhuru at some point.
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Post by Omwenga on Mar 19, 2013 10:11:05 GMT 3
Dubois, Even though I disagree with everything you've said here as I'll point out below, I nonetheless find your contribution fresh, thoughtful and genuine unlike most of the shouting and whining from the other side usually blabbing things even those writing them don't believe but do so for the sake of defending the impossible, which we have come to familiarize ourselves and have gotten used to here on Jukwaa and elsewhere. In that spirit, let me try and point out how I disagree with you. You may not buy the "theory" that there was a grand scheme to rig elections but the evidence in court shows just that as having been the case, namely, massive, heartless and reckless rigging with no shame. Wrong. The aim is to make sure that the people's will who voted on March 4th is respected and honored consistent with the democratic ideals have fought for decades and people have sacrificed and even lost lives to establish in our country. Wrong again for the petition does just that and more. To call the massive, reckless and arrogant rigging that took place as "tallying errors" merely tells us you either have no clue as to what happened or do but are in denial. Yes. The international observers of which I was one may have said the elections were free and fair but NONE has said the tallying was free of the mischief and tampering Raila and Cord know happened and will present their evidence as to such. FYI, and I am surprised you didn't know this from the impression you give you have read the petition, Raila's agents were kicked out of the tallying center when IEBC was confronted with evidence of rigging based on inconsistent forms 34 in the hands of the agents and what IEBC was reporting!Finally as to this, but not least, Raila did not and does not control any part of the government which participated in the rigging. Again, all this tells us is you don't know what happened and neither have you fully read the petition. Kindly read or re-read the petition and you'll find that the rigging was uncovered when it manifested itself in the provisional tallying that was being reported. I am not speaking for Cord but I would have to assume at some point after the massive rigging was uncovered, a decision must have been made let these fools complete the scam and then have them face the music in court. It actually does; now I am beginning to doubt whether you've even read the petition in its totality. I wish I can respond to this now but can't because this "tyranny of numbers" is at the core of my column for this weekend so you will have to wait and read it there--get yourself a copy of the Star if you're on the ground and read it there or when I post here afterwards. Wrong again. Raila has said repeatedly he will accept any outcome following an open and transparent election. You can either believe that or believe whatever suits your needs better but that doesn't change the fact Raila will accept defeat, if he is defeated in an open and transparent election; this is really the standard for any democratic election if elections and the will of the people mean anything. We are not suggesting; we know that IEBC, at least its key officers were and remain compromised. A court ruling in favor of Raila means the body has to either be reconstituted or an alternative must be found and I am sure Raila's lawyers will present those options to the court in due time. Nothing wrong with that. Not necessarily. There are any number of solutions which can be implemented mindful of time , logistics and expense as will be presented in court. You have this upside down but you're not alone. Read my column this weekend where I once and for all show what a charade this "tyranny of numbers" has been. You may genuinely believe this to be the case but, let me assure you it's not the case at all; all Raila and Cord want is the conduct of an election whereby the results reflect the will of the people that go to the polls, not imposition of leadership upon the same people by those who seek power through reckless rigging and other dishonest means. Agreed and that end must be consistent with our democratic ideals and must reflect the wishes and will of the people who went to the polls on March 4, 2013. |
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Post by kamalet on Mar 19, 2013 10:49:24 GMT 3
I just don't buy the theory that there was a grand scheme to rig elections and indeed, as someone else has mentioned, ODM has now fully blasted its propaganda machine. The aim, apart from completely discrediting IEBC and its chairman, is to make it "so convoluted that anyone can have a theory but no one has the facts". In fact CORD's petition does not point to a grand scheme but is consistent with tallying errors that were not premeditated. There are several inconsistencies that sink this 'grand scheme' theory being propagated by ODM and affiliated civil society groups including: 1. Did the massive rigging happen right under the noses of international observers (who deemed the elections free and fair), political party agents and RAO himself who controls part of the government? 2. The issue about 'massive fraud' is only now coming to light. During the election week, both Cord and Jubilee raised concerns about the tallying process but no party, including ODM, suggested fraud to the scale that is now being implied. With absolutely no evidence I may add. Even Cord's petition does not touch on these grand theories. 3. There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers but as contained in yesterday's DN opinion article. The author (I can't remember his name) argued that the GEMA and Kalenjin blocks makes up approx 30% and 17% of electoral votes in Kenya respectively. The author argued along the same lines as Ngunyi that any candidate that runs with the support of these two blocks is almost unbeatable. We saw a case of Kiambu county delivering more votes for Uhuru than Raila got in the whole of the former coast province. It is therefore irrelevant that Raila won in 6 provinces out of 8. The election results are very consistent with these percentages. Until recent days, I have been of the opinion that a run off would be the best outcome to settle this thing conclusively. But now I have my doubts. Raila Odinga will accept nothing less than victory. ODM is already suggesting that IEBC is not credible. Kajwang recently stated that IEBC should be disbanded and UN staff invited to run the next round of elections. For a run off to be credible, in the eyes of Cord, we will need to create a new electoral commission, carry out fresh voter registration and then finally have elections. Think about the time-frame. It was amusing to hear the PM talk about the Solomonic "baby". RAO is in fact the fake mother who is enthusiastically asking for the baby to be split. What RAO and ODM are aiming for is not a run off. They know they will face the same tyranny of numbers and get a second whopping. Instead they are aiming to stall this process through confusion and propaganda until such a time when we will be forced into another coalition government. It's now all up to the supreme court to end this madness. Dubois Good to see you back! But then if you want to touch your nose, why take your hand all round your head to touch it...? Would it not be easier to just take your hand straight to the nose? ;D ;D My point? You said very many things that were to lead to the one conclusion you made...Raila is looking for another nusu mkate opportunity!! Good reasoning you make, I must admit! Kamalet |
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Post by Horth on Mar 19, 2013 11:26:42 GMT 3
It was amusing to hear the PM talk about the Solomonic "baby". RAO is in fact the fake mother who is enthusiastically asking for the baby to be split. What RAO and ODM are aiming for is not a run off. They know they will face the same tyranny of numbers and get a second whopping. Instead they are aiming to stall this process through confusion and propaganda until such a time when we will be forced into another coalition government. It's now all up to the supreme court to end this madness.Doubtful if RAO ever even contemplate accepting the SC decision if it goes against him. Remember, this is what he thinks of the courts whenever a ruling is against his wishes: |
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Post by dubois on Mar 19, 2013 11:34:26 GMT 3
Dubois, Even though I disagree with everything you've said here as I'll point out below, I nonetheless find your contribution fresh, thoughtful and genuine unlike most of the shouting and whining from the other side usually blabbing things even those writing them don't believe but do so for the sake of defending the impossible, which we have come to familiarize ourselves and have gotten used to here on Jukwaa and elsewhere. In that spirit, let me try and point out how I disagree with you. You may not buy the "theory" that there was a grand scheme to rig elections but the evidence in court shows just that as having been the case, namely, massive, heartless and reckless rigging with no shame. Wrong. The aim is to make sure that the people's will who voted on March 4th is respected and honored consistent with the democratic ideals have fought for decades and people have sacrificed and even lost lives to establish in our country. Wrong again for the petition does just that and more. To call the massive, reckless and arrogant rigging that took place as "tallying errors" merely tells us you either have no clue as to what happened or do but are in denial. Yes. The international observers of which I was one may have said the elections were free and fair but NONE has said the tallying was free of the mischief and tampering Raila and Cord know happened and will present their evidence as to such. FYI, and I am surprised you didn't know this from the impression you give you have read the petition, Raila's agents were kicked out of the tallying center when IEBC was confronted with evidence of rigging based on inconsistent forms 34 in the hands of the agents and what IEBC was reporting!Finally as to this, but not least, Raila did not and does not control any part of the government which participated in the rigging. Again, all this tells us is you don't know what happened and neither have you fully read the petition. Kindly read or re-read the petition and you'll find that the rigging was uncovered when it manifested itself in the provisional tallying that was being reported. I am not speaking for Cord but I would have to assume at some point after the massive rigging was uncovered, a decision must have been made let these fools complete the scam and then have them face the music in court. It actually does; now I am beginning to doubt whether you've even read the petition in its totality. I wish I can respond to this now but can't because this "tyranny of numbers" is at the core of my column for this weekend so you will have to wait and read it there--get yourself a copy of the Star if you're on the ground and read it there or when I post here afterwards. Wrong again. Raila has said repeatedly he will accept any outcome following an open and transparent election. You can either believe that or believe whatever suits your needs better but that doesn't change the fact Raila will accept defeat, if he is defeated in an open and transparent election; this is really the standard for any democratic election if elections and the will of the people mean anything. We are not suggesting; we know that IEBC, at least its key officers were and remain compromised. A court ruling in favor of Raila means the body has to either be reconstituted or an alternative must be found and I am sure Raila's lawyers will present those options to the court in due time. Nothing wrong with that. Not necessarily. There are any number of solutions which can be implemented mindful of time , logistics and expense as will be presented in court. You have this upside down but you're not alone. Read my column this weekend where I once and for all show what a charade this "tyranny of numbers" has been. You may genuinely believe this to be the case but, let me assure you it's not the case at all; all Raila and Cord want is the conduct of an election whereby the results reflect the will of the people that go to the polls, not imposition of leadership upon the same people by those who seek power through reckless rigging and other dishonest means. Agreed and that end must be consistent with our democratic ideals and must reflect the wishes and will of the people who went to the polls on March 4, 2013. Omwenga, First of all, thanks for the compliment. Regarding Cord's petition, it touches on a few thousand votes here and there and not the massive millions of votes that Raila now suggests were stolen from him. Secondly, with all due respect, you should put a disclaimer to all your election theories from now henceforth. Prior to March 4, you boldly claimed that Ruto had lost all support in RV, Kenyatta was on his death bed politically and so on. You were wrong on every count and you folks have to give it up! Kenya must move on. As Kamale put it, Raila after exhausting the electoral process now wants to create an opportunity for nusu mkate. We all know that the disbandment/reconstitution of IEBC and fresh voter registration might take months if not years. Who would appoint the new commissioners? Kibaki and Raila under GCG? Remember all the in-fighting and deadlock? Even if a new electoral commission was set up, we might end up with the same electoral disputes. I foresee the supreme court dismissing the petition and in the worst case scenario ordering a re-run under the same structures. Either way, RAO's time is up. |
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Post by Omwenga on Mar 19, 2013 13:39:45 GMT 3
Omwenga, First of all, thanks for the compliment. Regarding Cord's petition, it touches on a few thousand votes here and there and not the massive millions of votes that Raila now suggests were stolen from him. Secondly, with all due respect, you should put a disclaimer to all your election theories from now henceforth. Prior to March 4, you boldly claimed that Ruto had lost all support in RV, Kenyatta was on his death bed politically and so on. You were wrong on every count and you folks have to give it up! Kenya must move on. As Kamale put it, Raila after exhausting the electoral process now wants to create an opportunity for nusu mkate. We all know that the disbandment/reconstitution of IEBC and fresh voter registration might take months if not years. Who would appoint the new commissioners? Kibaki and Raila under GCG? Remember all the in-fighting and deadlock? Even if a new electoral commission was set up, we might end up with the same electoral disputes. I foresee the supreme court dismissing the petition and in the worst case scenario ordering a re-run under the same structures. Either way, RAO's time is up. First, you obviously wish that the petition "touches on a few thousand votes" but the reality is, given the total number of votes inflated in Uhuru strongholds, depressed in Raila strongholds and simply pulled from someone's behind and added to the "win" column for Uhuru, we're looking at upwards of 1.5 million votes! That's not "touching on a few thousand votes." BTW, I don't know whether you know this but Raila and Cord need only show that Uhuru was rigged in by at least 4,200 votes they had him crossing the 50%+1 threshold, which can be done as easily as one relieving themselves with eyes closed, mouth gagged, and hands tied in the back. Second, regarding my columns and blogs on Ruto and UK, I have already admitted in a recent column that tribalism is more entrenched than most of us anticipated, which, besides the rigging, explains why Uhuru did much better than expected in RV. However, remove the rigging Uhuru is at below 50%, and therefore a run-off or re-run is in order. In other words, everything I said remains accurate except I now adjust a bit to say thanks to tribalism, Uhuru does better in Kaleland than previously thought but not enough to beat Raila in a nationwide race. Read my column this weekend and you'll see what I am talking about. Third, you'll also have to wait and see how the Supreme Court orders what has to be done to ensure the Constitution is adhered to and the will of people respected relative to how the re-run or run-off should be conducted. You can rest assured experts have been consulted and models provided of the various ways this can be done in a timely manner (less than 60 days) and at minimal expense. You'll be surprised how many private individuals we know, let alone governments and NGOs that are prepared and ready to pony up the money to do the exercise in the name of democracy and respect for the will of the people. You can also take it to the bank nobody would think they have big enough balls to yet again try to do what those who currently think they do did after March 4th in flagrantly, arrogantly and recklessly trying to steal in daylight with no shame; that, we'll see to it I'll blog another day how they nearly got away with this last time. Finally, but not least, neither Raila nor Cord is interested in anything other than outright victory for the winner come after the run-off or re-run as the case may be. Those talking about another nusu mkate again are those who don't know nothing about what is driving Raila and Cord to do what they are or know but pretend that they don't for the sake of propagating a belief they wish were true but is not. |
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Post by progressiveideals on Mar 19, 2013 14:10:52 GMT 3
The allegations against IEBC and Jubilee are downright ugly, not least of which is the allegation of sharing a single server with the IEBC and manipulating data. It is treasonous and if evidence, is presented to confirm that this is true, they should be banned from ever seeking public office again and locked up. Heads should roll. Indeed, if the evidence confirms this to be the case there will be an immense, anger among Kenyans about the extent of their corruption and contempt for the will of the Kenyan people.
Then again, this is an alliance headed by indicted war criminals, accused of crimes against humanity. Yet, they still command the support of large numbers of their tribesman. This is Kenya. If being accused of mass murder means nothing, what is a small matter of election theft as long as you are my tribal king?
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Post by kamalet on Mar 19, 2013 14:27:32 GMT 3
The allegations against IEBC and Jubilee are downright ugly, not least of which is the allegation of sharing a single server with the IEBC and manipulating data. It is treasonous and if evidence, is presented to confirm that this is true, they should be banned from ever seeking public office again and locked up. Heads should roll. Indeed, if the evidence confirms this to be the case there will be an immense, anger among Kenyans about the extent of their corruption and contempt for the will of the Kenyan people. Then again, this is an alliance headed by indicted war criminals, accused of crimes against humanity. Yet, they still command the support of large numbers of their tribesman. This is Kenya. If being accused of mass murder means nothing, what is a small matter of election theft as long as you are my tribal king? Karibu Jukwaa na utulize boli! |
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Post by nowayhaha on Mar 19, 2013 14:42:08 GMT 3
The allegations against IEBC and Jubilee are downright ugly, not least of which is the allegation of sharing a single server with the IEBC and manipulating data. It is treasonous and if evidence, is presented to confirm that this is true, they should be banned from ever seeking public office again and locked up. Heads should roll. Indeed, if the evidence confirms this to be the case there will be an immense, anger among Kenyans about the extent of their corruption and contempt for the will of the Kenyan people. Then again, this is an alliance headed by indicted war criminals, accused of crimes against humanity. Yet, they still command the support of large numbers of their tribesman. This is Kenya. If being accused of mass murder means nothing, what is a small matter of election theft as long as you are my tribal king? Karibu Jukwaa na utulize boli! Back then late 80's -early 90's when this was one of the most used swahili idiom we would add the words in bold " tuliza boli UWANJA MDOGO" |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Mar 19, 2013 15:10:52 GMT 3
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: PLEASE NOTE THAT THE ESSAY HAS BEEN TOTALLY REVAMPED:
Those who read it yesterday will immediately notice that it is NOT the same piece that was posted online yesterday, even though the link is still the same.
-I have changed a couple of things- starting with this beginning.
-More crucially, I have added what I hope is valuable inside information gleaned from a confidential report on the IEBC.
-Equally important I have included a very detailed excerpt from the civil society petition filed by Gladwell Otieno and Zahid Rajan at the end and have given more coverage of Raila Odinga's own affidavit in support of his petition.
-There is also a critique of the media driven "peace, concede" clap trap towards the end. And yes, I have added a fascinating editorial cartoon by the inimitable Gaddo, who is a close friend and collaborator of Maddo.
Anyways, you may wanna reload, refresh and re-read.
Onyango Oloo
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Post by roughrider on Mar 19, 2013 16:49:13 GMT 3
It was amusing to hear the PM talk about the Solomonic "baby". RAO is in fact the fake mother who is enthusiastically asking for the baby to be split. What RAO and ODM are aiming for is not a run off. They know they will face the same tyranny of numbers and get a second whopping. Instead they are aiming to stall this process through confusion and propaganda until such a time when we will be forced into another coalition government. It's now all up to the supreme court to end this madness.Doubtful if RAO ever even contemplate accepting the SC decision if it goes against him. Remember, this is what he thinks of the courts whenever a ruling is against his wishes: There was a time when you used to pretend some detached neutrality. That is history. But perhaps in your new, more honest role as a Jubilee attack dog you should have revisited the matter conclusively: how did it end? What was the context? Even if your contention in this case was true, it is also a common fallacy to generalise from an incident. |
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Post by roughrider on Mar 19, 2013 16:55:59 GMT 3
Good essay.
Uhuru did NOT win. He connived with the IEBC to steal the elections. He is a conniving election thief. Now, let us be clear, he is not president. But he is stealing taxpayers hard earned cash, posing as president anyway. He is spending our money campaigning for Jubilee for the second round. A round which he will loose because of his tribal basis for politics, his criminal ICC record and his general intellectual inadequacy to run a complex country.
We need a president who will actually be in charge. Not one who will be manipulated and control by a faceless cabal of power-brokers.
Raila Odinga won. Fair and square. But the forces of impunity who do NOT want to see a reformed working government have subverted democracy. The idea that taps of corruption and sleaze might be shut rankles some people so much. Let us be clear again, public resources should be sacrosanct. The people who are allowing Uhuru to use public resources for partisan political activity will be asked to refund that money when CORD takes over.
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Post by Horth on Mar 19, 2013 17:29:21 GMT 3
There was a time when you used to pretend some detached neutrality. That is history. But perhaps in your new, more honest role as a Jubilee attack dog you should have revisited the matter conclusively: how did it end? What was the context? Even if your contention in this case was true, it is also a common fallacy to generalise from an incident. I, unlike you, am beholden to no politician. I probably dislike Uhuruto more than you do and I did not vote for them. But the manner in which RAO has been running around leaves a lot to be desired, which I’m more than happy to point out. Let me try and explain; CORD has, since Uhuru was declared president, been constantly yelling that the elections were rigged, the voter register tampered with, RAO’s vote decreased while Uhuru’s increased. Even the articles OO linked to in his blog talk of “funny” numbers and everyone saying something probably went wrong at the IEBC. But the hard data is missing from all these allegations. Data which would be next to impossible to miss when one factors just how many thousands of people were involved in the elections. Taking the electronic voter tallying out of the equation (I mean, it was only to be used for provisional results ), leaves us with the manual tallying as the only way Uhruto could have rigged the elections. My confusion arises from this; if the manual tally was indeed manipulated, just how many people would have had to be involved or been in a position to notice? For example, if the numbers of one polling station were increased/decreased, for this change to make its way to Bomas would have meant that the numbers would have had to pass through many hands (polling station > constituency > county > Bomas). Each and every one of these stops a potential leak for any rigging attempt, exactly as we saw in 2007. On the other hand, if the numbers were increased/decreased only at Bomas, the same thing would happen except in reverse. All the hands through which the true numbers had passed would know that the numbers used in the final tally were incorrect, starting from the county tallying centers going down to the polling stations. Again, involving very many people. CORD agent in polling station A sees 100 being submitted upwards yet all CORD agents from the constituency through to Bomas sees 60 being tallied. Even if the CORD agents at Bomas didn’t see the wrong number being tallied (having been kicked out), they had their own rough sets of numbers to work from, based on their agents at almost each and every polling station outside of the IEBC control. Now this is where it get worse for RAO. You see, for the IEBC to have massively rigged the elections to the tune of 1.5m votes as stated by RAO (roughly 32’000 votes either being increased or decreased per county ….in reality, over 100’000 votes in major vote-rich counties), the differences would have had to have been in the order of hundreds of thousands between what left the county tallying center and what was declared at Bomas. A difference so huge it would be impossible to miss and petition. Yet it hasn’t. So it’s very curious that RAO’s petition only queries a couple of constituency figures totaling less than 6’000 votes. The probability of CORD (and indeed, everybody along the multiple chains) missing all that is astronomical. You can continue believing that RAO's 1.5m votes were stolen by UhuHoudini. |
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Post by joblesscorner on Mar 19, 2013 17:43:00 GMT 3
Ahmednasir Abdullahi þ@ahmednasirlaw
IEBC will file its papers kesho at the Supreme Court. Very robust and indeed devastating demolition exercise
Battle Royale of Senior learned friends
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Post by dubois on Mar 19, 2013 17:43:21 GMT 3
Good essay. Uhuru did NOT win. He connived with the IEBC to steal the elections. He is a conniving election thief. Now, let us be clear, he is not president. But he is stealing taxpayers hard earned cash, posing as president anyway. He is spending our money campaigning for Jubilee for the second round. A round which he will loose because of his tribal basis for politics, his criminal ICC record and his general intellectual inadequacy to run a complex country. We need a president who will actually be in charge. Not one who will be manipulated and control by a faceless cabal of power-brokers. Raila Odinga won. Fair and square. But the forces of impunity who do NOT want to see a reformed working government have subverted democracy. The idea that taps of corruption and sleaze might be shut rankles some people so much. Let us be clear again, public resources should be sacrosanct. The people who are allowing Uhuru to use public resources for partisan political activity will be asked to refund that money when CORD takes over. This story has found a life of its own. Last week the story was, numbers were padded to give Uhuru the 50% +1. This week, we are told that Raila in fact won the polls and beat his closest rival by almost 1 million votes. But somehow the dark forces conspired again and stole victory from the anti-establishment ,progressive prime minnister of Kenya. The contradictions are mind boggling! On one hand, IEBC is deeply partisan but yet, as a whole, connived and stole elections, massively, for the jubilee candidate. I see the makings of 2007 post-election violence. Even if we hold fresh elections, the 'dark forces' will still be with us unless RAO wins. These wild claims are a smokescreen for a candidate who is not ready to accept defeat and is preparing his foot soldiers to cause anarchy. You will fail! Kenya must move on! |
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Post by roughrider on Mar 19, 2013 18:03:54 GMT 3
There is a difference between supporting and being 'beholden'. But it is your recent comments that expose your agenda. I am only saying that it is more honest for one to reveal their biases in discussion. In this case you have gone to an old incident, leaving out the clarifications Raila made later, and used it to make some general point which supports your idea about who is right or wrong in this petition.
I think the CORD petition lays out the arguments pretty well. Read it - a few specific examples are laid out. Much more extensive evidence and analysis will be discussed in court. Further, one must understand that the entire process is in question. The fact that you are unable to 'see' or understand something cannot be a basis for saying it is not there. Your language is an important pointer to your attitude. And attitude can block free, open-minded thinking. In your view Raila is 'constantly yelling'. Now is he really or are you just looking for an opportunity to 'attack'? How else should he say that he has evidence that elections were not free and fair and that he is petitioning the court? What would you say if he really 'yelled'?
We aver that taking 'the electronic systems out' was part of the rigging. They were not meant merely for 'provisional results' as you myopically and ignorantly assert. They were a legal requirement to prevent electoral fraud. They were built to be a firewall to prevent multiple voting, ballot box stuffing, mis-tallying among other evils that plagued the system in 2007. That is why we used billions to set up this system.Our contention is that their failure was planned so that the darling system that you are jumping to 'manual tallying' could be manipulated in favour of Uhuru.
Your confusion might be easily cured by reading the CORD petition. But note that 1) many returning officers changed figures on the forms. In fact some were arrested while busy doctoring the results. 2) the IEBC engaged in a 'verification excersice' where returning officers were forced to fill in fresh results forms at Bomas to conforms with some pre-arranged script. Many of the results that have been announced are not the same as those announced at polling stations and tallying centres. I could go on and on. I believe Peter Kenneth was the first to say that the figures being reported were different from those reported by his agents.
What you do not know is that CORD protested many times that the figures were not right and sought to be involved in the verification so they could check the results but they were thrown out. In addition the results being announced were from forms that were not signed by CORD agents. Yes, CORD has their own numbers and may use these in courts (up to the lawyers). Our context is that the media refused to highlight the complains and the halls were saturated with security personnel to make it impossible for CORD to 'yell'.
You have misread and misunderstood the petition. It only provides essential highlights. There will be more. In fact CORD are right. The theft runs into hundreds of thousands. There was a complex game of numbers and turnout. I may come back to demonstrate this. What I don't get is why you want CORD to lay out its entire case for you and Jubilee lawyers in plain sight so that they can dream ways of frustrating the evidence. You have no patience to suspend judgement and wait for the arguments next week
Your first sentence here does not make sense. The second is a product of your political leanings. I am biased. I support CORD. But I believe that any indifferent observer will look at the process and conclude that the elections were a sham. Not free or fair. You are not independent.
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Post by roughrider on Mar 19, 2013 18:08:02 GMT 3
Good essay. Uhuru did NOT win. He connived with the IEBC to steal the elections. He is a conniving election thief. Now, let us be clear, he is not president. But he is stealing taxpayers hard earned cash, posing as president anyway. He is spending our money campaigning for Jubilee for the second round. A round which he will loose because of his tribal basis for politics, his criminal ICC record and his general intellectual inadequacy to run a complex country. We need a president who will actually be in charge. Not one who will be manipulated and control by a faceless cabal of power-brokers. Raila Odinga won. Fair and square. But the forces of impunity who do NOT want to see a reformed working government have subverted democracy. The idea that taps of corruption and sleaze might be shut rankles some people so much. Let us be clear again, public resources should be sacrosanct. The people who are allowing Uhuru to use public resources for partisan political activity will be asked to refund that money when CORD takes over. This story has found a life of its own. Last week the story was, numbers were padded to give Uhuru the 50% +1. This week, we are told that Raila in fact won the polls and beat his closest rival by almost 1 million votes. But somehow the dark forces conspired again and stole victory from the anti-establishment ,progressive prime minnister of Kenya. The contradictions are mind boggling! On one hand, IEBC is deeply partisan but yet, as a whole, connived and stole elections, massively, for the jubilee candidate. I see the makings of 2007 post-election violence. Even if we hold fresh elections, the 'dark forces' will still be with us unless RAO wins. These wild claims are a smokescreen for a candidate who is not ready to accept defeat and is preparing his foot soldiers to cause anarchy. You will fail! Kenya must move on! As a matter of fact, the one thing that has been consistent is the assertion that Raila won these elections. That it is jumbled for you or that you are confused about what has been said when and by who does not change the facts. I urge you to read the CORD petition as well as recent reports on the electoral process in the Kenyan media to understand that we did not have the perfect election that you are selling. |
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Post by Horth on Mar 19, 2013 18:14:07 GMT 3
This story has found a life of its own. Last week the story was, numbers were padded to give Uhuru the 50% +1. This week, we are told that Raila in fact won the polls and beat his closest rival by almost 1 million votes. But somehow the dark forces conspired again and stole victory from the anti-establishment ,progressive prime minnister of Kenya. The contradictions are mind boggling! On one hand, IEBC is deeply partisan but yet, as a whole, connived and stole elections, massively, for the jubilee candidate. I see the makings of 2007 post-election violence. Even if we hold fresh elections, the 'dark forces' will still be with us unless RAO wins. These wild claims are a smokescreen for a candidate who is not ready to accept defeat and is preparing his foot soldiers to cause anarchy. You will fail! Kenya must move on! As a matter of fact, the one thing that has been consistent is the assertion that Raila won these elections. That it is jumbled for you or that you are confused about what has been said when and by who does not change the facts. I urge you to read the CORD petition as well as recent reports on the electoral process in the Kenyan media to understand that we did not have the perfect election that you are selling. Incredible. Have a nice day.  |
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Post by Omwenga on Mar 19, 2013 18:16:18 GMT 3
There was a time when you used to pretend some detached neutrality. That is history. But perhaps in your new, more honest role as a Jubilee attack dog you should have revisited the matter conclusively: how did it end? What was the context? Even if your contention in this case was true, it is also a common fallacy to generalise from an incident. I, unlike you, am beholden to no politician. I probably dislike Uhuruto more than you do and I did not vote for them. But the manner in which RAO has been running around leaves a lot to be desired, which I’m more than happy to point out. Let me try and explain; CORD has, since Uhuru was declared president, been constantly yelling that the elections were rigged, the voter register tampered with, RAO’s vote decreased while Uhuru’s increased. Even the articles OO linked to in his blog talk of “funny” numbers and everyone saying something probably went wrong at the IEBC. But the hard data is missing from all these allegations. Data which would be next to impossible to miss when one factors just how many thousands of people were involved in the elections. Taking the electronic voter tallying out of the equation (I mean, it was only to be used for provisional results ), leaves us with the manual tallying as the only way Uhruto could have rigged the elections. My confusion arises from this; if the manual tally was indeed manipulated, just how many people would have had to be involved or been in a position to notice? For example, if the numbers of one polling station were increased/decreased, for this change to make its way to Bomas would have meant that the numbers would have had to pass through many hands (polling station > constituency > county > Bomas). Each and every one of these stops a potential leak for any rigging attempt, exactly as we saw in 2007. On the other hand, if the numbers were increased/decreased only at Bomas, the same thing would happen except in reverse. All the hands through which the true numbers had passed would know that the numbers used in the final tally were incorrect, starting from the county tallying centers going down to the polling stations. Again, involving very many people. CORD agent in polling station A sees 100 being submitted upwards yet all CORD agents from the constituency through to Bomas sees 60 being tallied. Even if the CORD agents at Bomas didn’t see the wrong number being tallied (having been kicked out), they had their own rough sets of numbers to work from, based on their agents at almost each and every polling station outside of the IEBC control. Now this is where it get worse for RAO. You see, for the IEBC to have massively rigged the elections to the tune of 1.5m votes as stated by RAO (roughly 32’000 votes either being increased or decreased per county ….in reality, over 100’000 votes in major vote-rich counties), the differences would have had to have been in the order of hundreds of thousands between what left the county tallying center and what was declared at Bomas. A difference so huge it would be impossible to miss and petition. Yet it hasn’t. So it’s very curious that RAO’s petition only queries a couple of constituency figures totaling less than 6’000 votes. The probability of CORD (and indeed, everybody along the multiple chains) missing all that is astronomical. You can continue believing that RAO's 1.5m votes were stolen by UhuHoudini. Let me try and break it down for you as you appear not to know what went down even from reading the petition that has been filed or do and are in denial: - There is a legal metaphor in American jurisprudence known as the fruit of the poisonous tree, which basically means, if the source of evidence ("tree") is tainted, then anything gained from it ("fruit") is tainted as well. We have provable cases where the presidential vote numbers in initial primary documents in the tallying process, forms 34, which were signed by all respective agents, are different from the numbers IEBC announced, which is Exhibit A for IEBC cooking numbers. In American jurisprudence, once you establish the evidence is the product of a poisonous tree, a judge either does not admit or if already admitted, he or she tosses out the entire evidence from the poisonous tree. The equivalent for that in this situation is the Supreme Court tossing the bogus announcement by the obviously compromised IEBC that Uhuru won when he, in fact did not win as those numbers were cooked as this and other evidence Raila and Cord will present clearly and indisputably establishes beyond any doubt.
- You say, "But the hard data is missing from all these allegations. Data which would be next to impossible to miss when one factors just how many thousands of people were involved in the elections. I have no idea what you're referring to but if it's where and how was the rigging done, that's actually at the core of Raila and Cord's case and if you think the petition itself is all the evidence, then you would have to learn a bit more about how cases are presented before a court before you reach the kind of erroneous and faulty conclusion you have here that there is no data to back up Raila's claims. BTW, it doesn't take thousands of people to rig millions of votes; it only takes a few crooks with the know-how and ability (read access) to rig.
- The evidence will show that the obviously compromised IEBC relied on un-certified forms 34 in producing their cooked numbers in total violation of the law.
- Leaving aside the fact it's obvious you don't know the content of the petition and supporting evidence and what the core of Raila and Cord's case is, and if we assume for the sake of argument that Raila and Cord only seek to prove that Uhuru got 6,000 votes as a result of rigging at IEBC, that proof alone will result in the nullification of the bogus results announced by the obviously compromised IEBC purporting to show that Uhuru won when he, in fact, did not win.
I can go on but you see why you're so wrong even with this much. |
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