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Post by deyiengs on Apr 15, 2012 14:18:58 GMT 3
It's now 99.999% probable that Mudavadi is leaving ODM. He will announce his depature in Kakamega later this week on Saturday.. I know a lot of ODM members will condemn him for what he's doing, but if you look closely and analyze the situation that he finds himself in, it's pretty clear that he made the right move. He had Zero chance of winning the ODM nomination. He supported Uhuru in 2002, then Raila in 2007. He is a man with big ambitions and he just don't see himself supporting Raila for another 10 years, assuming that Raila wins this elections. If Raila is to loose the elections, then add 5 more years to that. basically, he would NEVER have any chance of being in the ODM ticket. All ODM die-hards, please put yourselves in his shoes and pretend you're Mudavadi for minute. you'll see that he made an excellent move. Also, most Luyiahs (or some, depending on which side you belong) feel out of place with the current political situation. they want to have "their own" and so Mudavadi believes that this is his only chance. Even though we would wish to sweep the tribal tag underneath the bed, it's the reality in the ground folks. So that's how the man from Vihiga sees it. it's now or never for him and he found the right excuse to bolt out. Believe me you, even if ODM amended the constitution before submitting it to the registrar, he was going to leave. I blame ODM for granting him a very good reason to move out very soon. He's been shopping for a good reason and he must have shouted Hallelujah! when he got what he wanted. Though I don't think they could they have done anything different. For Raila, his sleepless nights starts now. He will be forced to strategize and move gingerly in trying to cut out a new outfit. Unfortunately, he has loads of baggage in his lieutenants like Anyang' Nyong'o et al. For whatever he does, I wish he does not retreat to Luo Nyanza like others have treated to their respective tribes. All the best Raila. Things are very fluid for you Jakom, just relax. |
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Post by gemagema on Apr 15, 2012 15:35:00 GMT 3
Deyeings
I take a totally different thought-line
While Mudavadi is a sort of guy that would be quite suited for a compromise presidential candidate (sort of Kibaki-like); just like kibaki, he cannot hack it alone. In fact, for him to be able to win or get enough votes that would qualify him for a run-off, he would need a very strong running mate. As an individual..he is not politically powerful enough...he cannot even manage 50% of western kenya following. Remember, the bukusu, will not back him...moreso because there is also another Bukusu candindate in the name of Eugene. Not forgetting the Bukusu-Maragoli positional politics
That said, if Mudavadi moves to New Ford kenya, which had initially identified Eugene as its front runner, he will be walking into obscurity. Unless he gets a very strong running mate...which i do not see wherefrom. All strong presidential candidates want to be on the debe themselves.
Also, as Muda walks in NFK, Eugene will or must exit...where to?...Grapevine reports that he will make that known soon. Can Muda therefore outshine Eugene in Western kenya...I guess it is relative depending on who their running mates are, or who they will be running mate to.
Now, dont be cheated that all Luhyas are in ODM because of Mudavadi. Some of them are in it because of RAO or ODM as a party itself. What am saying is Western kenya will not wholly chip off from ODM just bcos Muda left....ODM has quite a good following in Western kenya. Actually, as of now, RAO has more followers than Eugene or Muda in Western kenya
Muda would have been better off going the G7/Uhuru way. Yet that would not make sense. Why? Mudavadi is leaving ODM so that he can be a presidential candidate...hence he must go somewhere where he can be made a presidential candidate. Uhuru wants to be pork himself. So, Muda has chosen to go to a 2-people party of Shitanda and 'Kimunya must go' vocalist.
ODM should let Muda go..At this point in time, he is just playing spoiler for ODM
Can Eugene join ODM? While it would be a very good move for ODM, I wonder how that would work out. Right now, he is Minister bcos of his affinity with G7, hence he can't declare to support G7's enemy now. he could do it at a later date though
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emali
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Post by emali on Apr 15, 2012 15:39:30 GMT 3
It’s a good move for him only if he gets the entire luhya community behind him (primarily Bukusu’s)...if he was to do that assuming Uhuruto don’t run he will have a legitimate shot especially if his running mate is not just a tribal balance equalizer but someone who can mobilize separate interests with a guaranteed following (ala Ruto in 07)...
It’s very early but he will need a lot of work and luck...the greatest asset he has is that he does not draw a lot of strong emotions on either side of the political divide and is perceived as weak politically strong ingredients for being elected PORK in the past...
It’s also a very risky move because he has never been a party leader and if he were to lose the elections he will in all probability disappear into oblivion as the new constitution is not kind to election losers...
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Post by roughrider on Apr 15, 2012 15:50:04 GMT 3
Are you clairvoyant to know what is 'inside Mudavadi's mind'?
I disagree with you that 'it is the right move'. His career was essentially over when his weak-kneed character and soft underbelly was exposed in 2002. The result was that Akaranga fried him for lunch. It is only LDP and ODM that made Mudavadi relevant.
I agree with you that Mudavadi is not interested in internal democracy... actually, has never been; otherwise he would have quit KANU in the late 1980's to protest the general lack of democracy, human rights abuses and other examples of Moi-esque infamy like mlolongo.
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Post by adongo23456 on Apr 15, 2012 17:11:58 GMT 3
Folks,
I think deyiengs take makes a lot of sense. Mudavadi had to make a move. He has been told he has a chance at the presidency. He knew he was going to lose at the ODM nomination. He is not a fool. So he tried to wiggle his way out using all sorts of excuses and even the laughable nonsense that ODM has locked the nomination for Raila. Both candidates have been campaigning all over the country. What was that for? The charade is over. Now begins the hard work.
Mudavadi's real nightmare starts right now. First of all Mudavadi seems to expect a coronation in New Ford Kenya as the presidential candidate. He is going to be shocked. What happened to internal democracy? Don't they have it New Ford Kenya? That is what he is going to be told. Eugene needs New Ford Kenya to bargain for whatever little thing he can get. The next election is a nightmare. It is the president and the deputy, kwisha. Everybody else has to fight for governorship, senator or try being just simple M.P and even that is not guaranteed.
Many political careers are coming to an end after the next GE. Uhuru and Ruto may try to weigh on Wamalwa to let Mudavadi slide in as some insurance for them when the shit hits the roof, but even that has its limits. If I am Wamalwa I am saying give me 1 billion bucks now because I don't know what happens after this whole mess is settled. So Mudavadi is going to have a merry go around dance in Ford Kenya.
In all fairness, Mudavadi has a shot but there are infinite complications ahead of him. He has to go through round one or he is dead and may be for the first time in his life, he will to go out there and get a job and make a living like we all have to do. I think Raila will get through round one fairly easily. If Uhuru is in with the ICC and all he will make it too. Then the big dance will be between Raila and Uhuru. Those are the only two serious contenders at the moment. If Uhuru runs, Mudavadi can go home and sleep.
If Uhuru strikes out and is stuck at the Hague, Mudavadi could make it through round one and may very well end up facing Raila in the run off and finally that vote he wanted against Raila will be staring him in the face. If Uhuru and Ruto are out of the game, the issue is under what circumstances. If they are fugitives that is a nightmare for Mudavadi. If they are braving it out at The Hague that will be better for Mudavadi. I have said it before and I will say it again. Mudavadi's worst enemy would be to be seen as running as a proxy for Uhuru and Ruto. That will bury him. So he has to avoid them. But how do you marry someone you have not seen? Even arranged marriage needs contact.
The real nightmare for this me and my tribe politics is that nobody is going to stand down. Everybody has to run. That is good news for Raila.
Now one more detail we are forgetting. In civilized politics, Mudavadi should be resigning from his cabinet position which he got as a leader of ODM. In fact Mudavadi should be seeking a by election if he had any principles that he and Kabatesi like to talk about. But he wouldn't do that. In Kenya politicians like to eat through both ends of their anatomy. Everything comes in and nothing goes out. Talk about constipation. This is dangerous stuff and that is why the politicians keep exploding.
So let's see how Mr. Principle handles himself. He should gracefully resign from his cabinet position and concentrate in building Ford Kenya. I have a feeling if Mudavadi were to go for a by-election he could very well lose his seat. That is how fluid Kenyan politics is today.
The good news for ODM, if they can clean that mess with Nyong'o and others is that for once the party is free from the yoke of guaranteeing Mudavadi the running mate shot. If they manage it well this could be an opportunity for ODM to change the game completely. I will find out what is up on the ground.
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Apr 15, 2012 17:32:37 GMT 3
Doyengs,
I beg to disagree. Mudavadi is one of the most loyal servants one can have. Over the years, he invested and believed in KANU until Moi messed him up. When Odinga came calling, Mudavadi trusted him to the level of annoyance.
He has tried to have a very sobber debate with these guys, but the 'Luo mafia' in ODM has simply refused to be reasonable. The mistreatment that Mudavadi has been exposed to, has left many wondering why he is still there.
Notice that, even the once believed to be sobber such as Dalmas Otieno, have simply decided to kick Musalia in the teeth. Reason, he chose to exercise his democractic right and seek for nomination within the party. The outbursts by the Otiono's are purely on tribal considerations. To them, ODM belongs to one man, if you listened to him yesterday.
Yet, Musalia remains quiet and yet to call anyone of them names. What would you do if you were him? That is the question villagers are asking. It is hurting them more than it hurts Musalia.
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Post by merlin on Apr 15, 2012 18:06:00 GMT 3
The right move??
The right move for what? What are the objectives of Mudavadi? Becoming the next President of Kenya and what then? Strengthening law and order in our society, promising no sacred cows anymore? Stop the thieving out of government coffers. Strengthening human rights for everyone, bring fairness and efficiency to business environment in Kenya? Move Kenya forward in the international society of Nations?
If this is what he like to contribute to Kenya than he might as well stays with ODM and work together with others in ODM including Raila.
So what is it that he cannot contribute to Kenya as a member of ODM? What is so special about his contribution that only as a president he can do for Kenya?
Yes I know I am too idealistic; who like to contribute? We all like to eat isn’t? So when the opportunity is there why not grab it with both hands.
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Post by Mobimba on Apr 15, 2012 20:43:03 GMT 3
Sooner or later folks will come alive to the fact that the epicenter of the next elections will be in the individual counties… the dynamics of which are not national. In fact, to be governor or senator, one’s campaign will have to be confined within their respective county. For those candidates, there will be no point in appearing ‘national’.
Point is, as the election date nears; expect the pretenders to the throne to completely backtrack to their localities. If one is not a real presidential candidate, do not expect them to spend their money and time traversing the country looking for someone else’s presidential votes. They’ll all be rooted in their counties.
Politicians are selfish mother-donkeys… plus a president under the new constitution really has nothing to offer second or third tier politicians.
The clamor for Uhuru/ Ruto/ Raila etc has nothing to do with the individuals rather it’s all about identifying the party/ bus. Once that’s factually established, the focus will shift to the brutal infighting for the party ticket presumed most popular in each county.
In the end, the presidential candidate will be judged for their individual naked self. The hanger-on’s will bring no value. The Pentagon, G7 are outdated approaches.
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Post by roughrider on Apr 15, 2012 22:12:57 GMT 3
Sooner or later folks will come alive to the fact that the epicenter of the next elections will be in the individual counties… the dynamics of which are not national. In fact, to be governor or senator, one’s campaign will have to be confined within their respective county. For those candidates, there will be no point in appearing ‘national’. Point is, as the election date nears; expect the pretenders to the throne to completely backtrack to their localities. If one is not a real presidential candidate, do not expect them to spend their money and time traversing the country looking for someone else’s presidential votes. They’ll all be rooted in their counties. Politicians are selfish mother-donkeys… plus a president under the new constitution really has nothing to offer second or third tier politicians. The clamor for Uhuru/ Ruto/ Raila etc has nothing to do with the individuals rather it’s all about identifying the party/ bus. Once that’s factually established, the focus will shift to the brutal infighting for the party ticket presumed most popular in each county. In the end, the presidential candidate will be judged for their individual naked self. The hanger-on’s will bring no value. The Pentagon, G7 are outdated approaches. I am sure there is a point somewhere to this statement... if only you could tie it to the present debate more closely. Incidentally, having spent millions visiting ODM delegates across the country, the Musalia must be labelled a serious presidential candidate. |
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Post by roughrider on Apr 15, 2012 22:25:43 GMT 3
The good news for ODM, if they can clean that mess with Nyong'o and others is that for once the party is free from the yoke of guaranteeing Mudavadi the running mate shot. If they manage it well this could be an opportunity for ODM to change the game completely. I will find out what is up on the ground. My sentiments exactly. I am intrigued by the talk about the 'end of pentagon'. Every election has its dynamics. This one, I think will be all about the ticket and its policies. Perhaps unwittingly, Mudavadi is giving Raila an opportunity to transform the race and make it about issues that matter rather than tribal loyalty. Speaking of Mudavadi, I think he miscalculated terribly. He jumped before time. He should have waited for the next five years. Irrespective of the results of the next elections, Mudavadi would have been a shoo-in. Now all that is academic. |
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Post by deyiengs on Apr 16, 2012 1:10:36 GMT 3
....... Speaking of Mudavadi, I think he miscalculated terribly. He jumped before time. He should have waited for the next five years. Irrespective of the results of the next elections, Mudavadi would have been a shoo-in. Now all that is academic. RR, now I see why you disagreed with my earlier hypothesis that the man made an excellent move of ditching ODM. Maybe he could have thought of this move in the coming years but then again reading Kabatesi's opinion, you will notice that these folks believe that (1) MM is a democrat and that ODM don't allow for democracy, (2) that there are leaderless parties out their salivating for MM (3) that MM is more popular and a compromise candidate than any other candidate. There is no way such thinking would have allowed for them to reason like you and many others would reason. Anyway, let's wait for stuff to unfold. One thing I know for sure is that this election is going to be much different in many aspects compared to the previous elections. I plead for Raila to assert his authority now. Let them morn for one week and jump-start their vehicle, if possible paint the car a new. |
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Post by job on Apr 16, 2012 4:52:37 GMT 3
1. It's no secret Mudavadi was pushed by certain quarters to either run for Presidency or face irrelevancy in the short to medium future. 2. Those quarters have been mostly extraneous to ODM. For instance, New Ford-K MPs like Soita Shitanda and Bonny Khalwale - fearful of another ODM euphoria sweeping Western at the next general elections (& knocking them out) - relentlessly urged Musalia on; specifically hoping his eventual exit from ODM would scuttle an anticipated strong pro-ODM voting wave in Western. 3. However, as Musalia likely grappled with such dilemma, the strongest motivation to run was shoved by Moi and Museveni (according to grapevine intelligence). The duo are reported to have sent emissaries who encouraged Musalia he would be a "better" alternative to Raila - more acceptable to THEM...yet publicly couched as "more acceptable to the constituencies of both Uhuru and Ruto". 4. Given that the biggest boost to launching a Presidential run is financial, the same duo are whispered to have guaranteed Musalia that cash steroid. This is what is whispered to have emboldened Musalia's quest to run. A test-run financial downpayment was reportedly evidenced in Musalia's forrays across the counties - feting ODM party delegates handsomely. ODM secretariat noticed the deep external pockets infiltrating the party grassroots. 5. Sensing that ODM was on alert-mode, Musalia had to be ushered out through an extraordinary exit route - essentially being planned for announcement next Saturday. This is yet another trademark of Musalia - afraid to act quickly or rather illustrating an indecisive trait. Musalia may be delaying the obvious - he will likely put his mouth where the money is (Baba Moi's & Museveni's collective deep pockets). How many side-kicks will he flee with? Will Ngilu join her? Be on the look-out. Let's not even deviate to the deceptive gotcha games being played between Museveni and Raila vis-a-vis Uganda's Olara Otunnu and our Musalia. 6. The choice venue for the Saturday announcement (Kakamega County - not Vihiga County) is carefully choreographed to create the illusion that Musalia is the greater Abaluhya presidential candidate. An attempt is being made to portray the entire former Western province (not merely Vihiga) as Musalia's solid and populous base. 7. Behind the scenes, a dramatic change of leadership has occured in KANU; where Gideon Moi has replaced Uhuru Kenyatta as the party's supremo. Who is not anticipating the merging of these two budding interests (Moi's and Musalia's) shortly. It is clear Moi would rather ICC sink Ruto and the latter's political ambitions; while propping a ticket led by a non-Kalenjin (Musalia), on whose coat-tail his son Gideon perches. This sprouting development may soon blossom more clearly in due course. 8. As these new alliances shape out, keep in mind that most of their architects are premising their chances on two scenarios: (a) there is no 50% majority winner in round one of the presidential election (b) their team makes in in the top-two positions. The high-stake activities going on are essentially political moves of repositioning for the run-off battle. 9. As some have already predicted, the tribal mathematicians might be disappointed with their political arithmetics and projections. Some of these linear (one-dimensional) mathematicians have already shrunk Raila Odinga's political base to the Luo vote; using the formula: Raila's vote = (ODM national vote) - (Kalenjin vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Ruto) - (Coast vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Balala) - (Northern & North Eastern Vote - thanks to exit of Chachu, Duale, et al) - (Luhya vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Musalia Mudavadi). They have done the 'simple' math and only waiting gleefully with the assumption that the answer is SIMPLE: Raila's vote = Luo vote. I heard this shocking arithmetic pronounced even by the lawyer from Garsen called Mungatana...someone who easily rubbishes all opinion polls showing Narc-K's popularity permanently hovering below the statistical error of significance...in fact it's just the number of zeroes before and after the decimal point that one has to keep a count of...0.05; 0.005; 0.0005 etc. These fellas seriously believe ODM is kwisha, and that Raila Odinga has been peeled off all onion layers...he's finished!Uhuru Kenyatta's paid propagandist called Moses Kuria (freshly booted out of JUKWAA) even coined the phrase KPU wing of ODM (euphemism for Luo voters in ODM)...deriding independent Kenya's first real opposition party that suffered ruthless disbandment and isolation. In their fantasy world of easy tribal math, these divide-and-rule wannabes think that fronting of presidential candidates from all major tribes - Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo, Luhya, Kamba will likely eliminate Raila Odinga at the 1st round. They keep asking - where will he get the votes? I have literally heard a senior IMF economist (with a lengthy history of calculating economic index(es), forecasts and projections) betting (today) that Kenyans will congruently fit into the projected tribal voting arithmetics which will isolate Raila in round 1. {On top of this genius in math, he also predicted another legal wizardry - that Uhuru will be proven innocent; Ruto will be jailed for life. Since am not in the betting business, I will let time bear out this whiz.} 10) I will end the Musalia Mudavadi thought by stating... he probably got carried away with the attention from the big men (Moi and Museveni) and forgot to forcast & weigh his best strategic option politically; which was to bid time and stab at it later. Musalia will most likely watch his earstwhile captain team up with a running mate probably from Bungoma or Rift Valley and the former will then watch the run-off from the sidelines.
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Post by kamalet on Apr 16, 2012 6:28:02 GMT 3
Mudavadi seems to have pull a lucky move that might end up surprising many!
Bereft of any sensible compromise candidate in the event of an unfavourable ICC situation, the Uhuruto lot have someone with national appeal that they can call on.
But I am looking at it differently. The story going round is that the west will dump Raila in favour of MUdavadi (as long as Uhuru does not become president) and then ICC favours can be extended to Kenyans charged there to complete a quid pro quo deal that helps out on the oil deal. Perhaps reference can be made to the CONEXION thread I started some time back.
ODM sould never have allowed Mudavadi to leave.
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Post by merlin on Apr 16, 2012 8:41:16 GMT 3
Mudavadi seems to have pull a lucky move that might end up surprising many! Bereft of any sensible compromise candidate in the event of an unfavourable ICC situation, the Uhuruto lot have someone with national appeal that they can call on. But I am looking at it differently. The story going round is that the west will dump Raila in favour of MUdavadi (as long as Uhuru does not become president) and then ICC favours can be extended to Kenyans charged there to complete a quid pro quo deal that helps out on the oil deal. Perhaps reference can be made to the CONEXION thread I started some time back. ODM sould never have allowed Mudavadi to leave. ODM sould never have allowed Mudavadi to leave?? Is ODM too democratic? This is the trouble with democracy; you cannot take someone’s freedom away. One way or another Kenya has to move away from the tribal statistics will it develop into a prosperous Nation for all its citizens. Statistics is not the problem as also leaders can calculate though the big difference is between the parameter of eating versus contribution. Leaders have something to contribute and many of the current politicians are motivated by consuming. The poor can only think about eating however they still have a choice between two kilo’s unga donated today versus sufficient (and more) unga for the rest of their life. It maybe still take some time though they will learn about statistics making a calculated choice independent of what their Elders and other advisors tell them. The same is valid for Mudavadi, he should make his own calculations even when he has nothing to contribute. |
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Post by roughrider on Apr 16, 2012 11:09:56 GMT 3
10) I will end the Musalia Mudavadi thought by stating... he probably got carried away with the attention from the big men (Moi and Museveni) and forgot to forcast & weigh his best strategic option politically; which was to bid time and stab at it later. Musalia will most likely watch his earstwhile captain team up with a running mate probably from Bungoma or Rift Valley and the former will then watch the run-off from the sidelines. Interesting thoughts, Job. Indeed when people start telling a politician 'unaweza' it begins to get into their heads. It is like a drug. They are then removed from reality. People like George Anyona, Mwashengu Mwachofi, James Orengo, Nazlin Omar etc really thought they would win the presidency, even as every sane Kenyan knew otherwise. A salient point is that the new constitution has allowed things to happen sooner rather than later. If one planned to defect, as did Musalia, they would have to so it now rather than later when the stables are bolted. This means that the scope for mischief will be increasingly limited as we head towards the election. Raila has yet to make significant moves. I insist that the issue with Musalia is Godsend for Raila. He will still manage to carry Western Province, regardless. And especially so, if he carves out a national agenda. The vote there has never been emphatic. The turn-out at the last elections were underwhelming and for several elections, Western has been divided across parties. Therefore a ticket with a VP from another region might be compelling. Musalia, on the other hand, maybe angling to be a compromise. Compromise candidates generally lack strong convictions. The idea that Kenyan people prefer 'moderates' suggests that Kenyans prefer people who will not take positions on difficult matters. I think they would have elected Kalonzo if that were the case. Ultimately, time will tell. |
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Post by roughrider on Apr 16, 2012 11:20:16 GMT 3
....... Speaking of Mudavadi, I think he miscalculated terribly. He jumped before time. He should have waited for the next five years. Irrespective of the results of the next elections, Mudavadi would have been a shoo-in. Now all that is academic. RR, now I see why you disagreed with my earlier hypothesis that the man made an excellent move of ditching ODM. Maybe he could have thought of this move in the coming years but then again reading Kabatesi's opinion, you will notice that these folks believe that (1) MM is a democrat and that ODM don't allow for democracy, (2) that there are leaderless parties out their salivating for MM (3) that MM is more popular and a compromise candidate than any other candidate. There is no way such thinking would have allowed for them to reason like you and many others would reason. Anyway, let's wait for stuff to unfold. One thing I know for sure is that this election is going to be much different in many aspects compared to the previous elections. I plead for Raila to assert his authority now. Let them morn for one week and jump-start their vehicle, if possible paint the car a new. If you followed, carefully Mudavadi's bid you would have noticed two important things: 1. He was not articulating any divergent policy positions to ODM delegates. He was simply saying he felt more electable because he is 'non controversial'. This is a dangerous idea for Kenya. Moi was ushered in as a compromise. A passing cloud. Harmless. And yet, a few years later he became a monster. I cannot, despite following very carefully, tell you what Musalia Mudavadi stands for. Mudavadi has always been sheltered. An example is Goldenberg where in reality it was his baby; Saitoti stopped it. Yet it is Saitoti who faced the music as Moi shielded his nephew. 2. When ODM outlined a process where the loser in the nominations would be locked in, with no possibility of defection, Mudavadi and his group baulked, thereby exposing their true intentions. They want nominations in time to allow defections. What democracy is that? Ultimately Kenyans will be confronted by a clear set of choices. People and their histories must be examined carefully. |
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Post by Daktari wa makazi on Apr 16, 2012 12:43:00 GMT 3
This is seriously turning into a witch hunt. The man refused to be used blindly to endorse Raila without a cogent credible nomination and now the whole jaluo community have turned on him as the 'traitor'. His past which was known for all these many years is now questioned. His character openly assassinated and his prospect blackened. Have you not seen this style of intimidation before? And is it befitting for someone seeking the presidency to, or have his party, behave so?
What this proves is that ODM is simply a Raila/Nyongo Luo outfit masquerading as a political party, no better than the many others charade of parties.
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Post by merlin on Apr 16, 2012 13:24:55 GMT 3
This is seriously turning into a witch hunt. The man refused to be used blindly to endorse Raila without a cogent credible nomination and now the whole jaluo community have turned on him as the 'traitor'. His past which was known for all these many years is now questioned. His character openly assassinated and his prospect blackened. Have you not seen this style of intimidation before? And is it befitting for someone seeking the presidency to, or have his party, behave so? What this proves is that ODM is simply a Raila/Nyongo Luo outfit masquerading as a political party, no better than the many others charade of parties. This is to easy said. Mudavadi places himself in the centre of attention. He is leaving ODM and the reason he offers is trivial and untruth to the circumstances. I like to know what his real reasons are and why he feels he cannot help Kenya forward as member of ODM. Seeking these reasons we can look at his history and recent behaviour and the political situation of today. I don’t regard this as manhunt and no one has said he is a traitor. He is a free man making his own decisions and so far I know he has never made any promises or offered a vision regarding the future of Kenya so how can he be a traitor? For the same money how can I be a follower of someone without vision or message? Therefore your comment that I blackened his prospect cannot be true as I do not oppose his vision either his message. |
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Post by afrigun on Apr 16, 2012 14:07:13 GMT 3
Mudavadi seems to have pull a lucky move that might end up surprising many! Bereft of any sensible compromise candidate in the event of an unfavourable ICC situation, the Uhuruto lot have someone with national appeal that they can call on. But I am looking at it differently. The story going round is that the west will dump Raila in favour of MUdavadi (as long as Uhuru does not become president) and then ICC favours can be extended to Kenyans charged there to complete a quid pro quo deal that helps out on the oil deal. Perhaps reference can be made to the CONEXION thread I started some time back. ODM sould never have allowed Mudavadi to leave. "Compromise candidate" fronted by some Uhuruto and other impunity cartels so that he can protect them from ICC and frustrate the Constitional reforms/implementation? That narrative is a millstone round Mudavadis neck, and unfortunately, it ALREADY is the trending opinion on the ground, justified or not. |
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Post by mzee on Apr 16, 2012 14:54:29 GMT 3
Fellas,
As an ODMer I know for sure that Mudavadi has left and I won’t be shedding any tears in spite of the fact that I liked him and thought that he was a very good running mate for Raila. I won’t even plead with him to rejoin the party because he has already burnt all his bridges and rejoining will only weaken the party more than strengthen it.
What ODM tops honchos should do is to find an able replacement, after all some have been complaining that Musalia is a weakling who does not even deserve the number two slot in ODM. When ODM was fighting for its haki at the KICC we only saw Mudavadi but never heard him. It was the likes of Orengo and Ruto who stood up to defend ODM.
The ODM running mate slot will be hotly contested just as the presidential candidates for the likelihood of ODM emerging victorious in the next elections has increased tenfold with the Kamtusa and Gema rallies. I think that Raila should not pick a running mate from the former Western or Central provinces. The best bet for Raila would be someone from the South Rift, preferably Franklin Bett.
Even though Job might be right about Daniel Moi´s hand in Musalias exit from ODM, I still don’t see how the former president would benefit because Musalia cannot win the presidency. He can only hope to join forces with the winner of the next elections. Is this the best foot the prof. of politics can put forward? Musalia would like to market himself as a Western province candidate and should he loose even a bit of the province he would be done for. Unfortunately this is what going to happen because he does not the province wrapped around his fingers and nobody has ever had. As long as ODM has a sizable number of its current MPs supporting its cause down there Musalia will have no chance.
Truth of the matter is that Musalia can only frustrate Railas way to presidency but can never stop him completely. Mudavadi does not have a national following and without Raila his bid won’t amount to much. Mudavadi is making a classical mistake of underestimating Raila Odinga. Many have fallowed that route and fallen down hard. Kalonzo and Ruto are typical examples. Railas ability to change with time and circumstances makes him a formidable opponent.
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Post by adongo23456 on Apr 16, 2012 16:15:52 GMT 3
1. It's no secret Mudavadi was pushed by certain quarters to either run for Presidency or face irrelevancy in the short to medium future. 2. Those quarters have been mostly extraneous to ODM. For instance, New Ford-K MPs like Soita Shitanda and Bonny Khalwale - fearful of another ODM euphoria sweeping Western at the next general elections (& knocking them out) - relentlessly urged Musalia on; specifically hoping his eventual exit from ODM would scuttle an anticipated strong pro-ODM voting wave in Western. 3. However, as Musalia likely grappled with such dilemma, the strongest motivation to run was shoved by Moi and Museveni (according to grapevine intelligence). The duo are reported to have sent emissaries who encouraged Musalia he would be a "better" alternative to Raila - more acceptable to THEM...yet publicly couched as "more acceptable to the constituencies of both Uhuru and Ruto". 4. Given that the biggest boost to launching a Presidential run is financial, the same duo are whispered to have guaranteed Musalia that cash steroid. This is what is whispered to have emboldened Musalia's quest to run. A test-run financial downpayment was reportedly evidenced in Musalia's forrays across the counties - feting ODM party delegates handsomely. ODM secretariat noticed the deep external pockets infiltrating the party grassroots. 5. Sensing that ODM was on alert-mode, Musalia had to be ushered out through an extraordinary exit route - essentially being planned for announcement next Saturday. This is yet another trademark of Musalia - afraid to act quickly or rather illustrating an indecisive trait. Musalia may be delaying the obvious - he will likely put his mouth where the money is (Baba Moi's & Museveni's collective deep pockets). How many side-kicks will he flee with? Will Ngilu join her? Be on the look-out. Let's not even deviate to the deceptive gotcha games being played between Museveni and Raila vis-a-vis Uganda's Olara Otunnu and our Musalia. 6. The choice venue for the Saturday announcement (Kakamega County - not Vihiga County) is carefully choreographed to create the illusion that Musalia is the greater Abaluhya presidential candidate. An attempt is being made to portray the entire former Western province (not merely Vihiga) as Musalia's solid and populous base. 7. Behind the scenes, a dramatic change of leadership has occured in KANU; where Gideon Moi has replaced Uhuru Kenyatta as the party's supremo. Who is not anticipating the merging of these two budding interests (Moi's and Musalia's) shortly. It is clear Moi would rather ICC sink Ruto and the latter's political ambitions; while propping a ticket led by a non-Kalenjin (Musalia), on whose coat-tail his son Gideon perches. This sprouting development may soon blossom more clearly in due course. 8. As these new alliances shape out, keep in mind that most of their architects are premising their chances on two scenarios: (a) there is no 50% majority winner in round one of the presidential election (b) their team makes in in the top-two positions. The high-stake activities going on are essentially political moves of repositioning for the run-off battle. 9. As some have already predicted, the tribal mathematicians might be disappointed with their political arithmetics and projections. Some of these linear (one-dimensional) mathematicians have already shrunk Raila Odinga's political base to the Luo vote; using the formula: Raila's vote = (ODM national vote) - (Kalenjin vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Ruto) - (Coast vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Balala) - (Northern & North Eastern Vote - thanks to exit of Chachu, Duale, et al) - (Luhya vote - thanks to exit of Pentagon member Musalia Mudavadi). They have done the 'simple' math and only waiting gleefully with the assumption that the answer is SIMPLE: Raila's vote = Luo vote. I heard this shocking arithmetic pronounced even by the lawyer from Garsen called Mungatana...someone who easily rubbishes all opinion polls showing Narc-K's popularity permanently hovering below the statistical error of significance...in fact it's just the number of zeroes before and after the decimal point that one has to keep a count of...0.05; 0.005; 0.0005 etc. These fellas seriously believe ODM is kwisha, and that Raila Odinga has been peeled off all onion layers...he's finished!Uhuru Kenyatta's paid propagandist called Moses Kuria (freshly booted out of JUKWAA) even coined the phrase KPU wing of ODM (euphemism for Luo voters in ODM)...deriding independent Kenya's first real opposition party that suffered ruthless disbandment and isolation. In their fantasy world of easy tribal math, these divide-and-rule wannabes think that fronting of presidential candidates from all major tribes - Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo, Luhya, Kamba will likely eliminate Raila Odinga at the 1st round. They keep asking - where will he get the votes? I have literally heard a senior IMF economist (with a lengthy history of calculating economic index(es), forecasts and projections) betting (today) that Kenyans will congruently fit into the projected tribal voting arithmetics which will isolate Raila in round 1. {On top of this genius in math, he also predicted another legal wizardry - that Uhuru will be proven innocent; Ruto will be jailed for life. Since am not in the betting business, I will let time bear out this whiz.} 10) I will end the Musalia Mudavadi thought by stating... he probably got carried away with the attention from the big men (Moi and Museveni) and forgot to forcast & weigh his best strategic option politically; which was to bid time and stab at it later. Musalia will most likely watch his earstwhile captain team up with a running mate probably from Bungoma or Rift Valley and the former will then watch the run-off from the sidelines. I like your take. I think it makes a lot of sense. Too bad we also have to read some childish nonsense from the likes of you know who are forever obsessed with tribal crap. I heard romours about Mudavadi is actually joining Julia Ojiambo's LDP and not New Ford Kenya but I doubt it. Nothing is going to be smooth for Mudavadi. The problem with politics is that nothing is ever straight. A few things to note. 1. Mudavadi needs to get into another political party very fast. That is not easy unless it is a dead party with nobody to be pushed around. New Ford Kenya will have its problems. 2. Mudavadi will soon learn that fighting Raila gives you wall to wall publicity around the clock. As soon as you are not fighting Raila that publicity is gone. I can see the likes of Khalwale trying to milk the anti Raila media machine. If the Raila folks are smart they should leave Mudavadi alone. Don't bother with him. He has a right to run for the presidency of the country in whatever party he chooses. Ignore the man and his entourage. 3. The myth that Mudavadi is going to take Western is nonsense. Even when Mudavadi run with Raila in 2007 ODM got about 52% of the vote in Western. Mudavadi move has created a lot of opportunities for other politicians in Western. They are going to exploit it. The dynamics are hugely complex. If Mudavadi fails to make it through round one it is going to be a disaster for them. 4. The other myth is that Mudavadi can somehow help the Uhuru Ruto situation with the ICC. Not even god can help those people. If they are innocent they will be fine. If they are guilty they are gone forever. The only way you help those guys is to sacrifice the country for them. Kenyans will not allow anybody to do that. I don't care who you are. Kibaki can't do it for them. Raila can't do it for them and Mudavadi can't do it for them. It is just wishful thinking. 5. There is going to be a political dilemma for Uhuru and Ruto with their little cousin here. Uhuru has to pretend to run one way or the other. Ruto has to do the same. Now they have their preferred alternative what to do. Also Ruto knows Moi would rather see him gone and Moi has project II in Mudavadi. How does that work. This drama is just starting. |
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Post by mintos on Apr 16, 2012 16:30:59 GMT 3
Will Mudavadi resign his DPM post, his deputy PL post in ODM and also Local Govt ministry when he quits ODM or is he waiting for Raila to fire him so that the demonising of Raila can be in high gear?
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Apr 16, 2012 16:37:14 GMT 3
Will Mudavadi resign his DPM post, his deputy PL post in ODM and also Local Govt ministry when he quits ODM or is he waiting for Raila to fire him so that the demonising of Raila can be in high gear? I doubt there is anyone here on jukwaa who can, or even pretend to answer your question. Maybe Omwenga can try. But you are better of directing the question to Mudavadi himself or Kibisu Kabatesi. |
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Post by adongo23456 on Apr 16, 2012 16:57:51 GMT 3
Will Mudavadi resign his DPM post, his deputy PL post in ODM and also Local Govt ministry when he quits ODM or is he waiting for Raila to fire him so that the demonising of Raila can be in high gear? If Mudavadi has any principles or even a conscience he should resign all posts. In fact it might be a political dynamite for him to do that. It will set him apart from the regular hyenas who love to walk both sides of the road. Oh I don't want to be associated with ODM but No I need to keep my job given to me as a member of ODM. When Raila quit Ford Kenya he had the guts to resign from parliament and seek re-election. No other politician has done that. But I doubt Mudavadi will quit his cabinet posts. Those things come with benefits. Also if Mudavadi wants to invest in fighting Raila as part of his regular menu to get him some media coverage how better to do that than pick fights over your cabinet position and if you get fired then go on a tear about how Raila is a dictator and how cruel he is to take a job from you. Lumumba used to call it political hygiene. Our politicians don't have it. They come from the toilet straight to the dinner table without washing their hands. It is awful and quite unhealthy, but that is the only politics they know. |
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Apr 16, 2012 17:08:01 GMT 3
Job,
Nothing new, just the usual ODM propaganda that we have become so accustomed to.
Mudavadi has not wronged anyone, he has instead shown a lot of tolerance and exercised a lot of restraint.
Non of the demands Mudavadi made were as unreasonable and as bizarre as many of you would have the world believe. For starters, like Mudavadi, I know not of any party at this point in time that has only one man as the sole presidential candidate. Not in this world, leave alone Kenya. How does an attempt to move the party towards this direction become unreasonable?
Nominations in mature democracies or in democracies that truly believe in free will and choice are done in jimbos or the smallest units of representation, where, as much participation and transparency as possible can be guaranteed. Only conventions are held in central places. Our constitution has taken this path, and that is what Mudavadi spend time explaining to the ODM honchos, but they could have none of it.
What do you expect Mudavadi to do when he has a party leader running around the country telling everyone that he has no trouble with his deputy, yet his top dogs are calling villages all over Luo Nyanza to find out where the next funeral will be so as to use them as a platform to throw insults at him?
Even if Musalia fails to get where he wants to at this time, at 50, he still has many years ahead of him for good things. He only needs to free himself from the oppressive regime that is ODM. They never accepted him and as we recently learnt from Shakir Shabir, he has all along been considered adopted and therefore should only be seen and not heard within the party ranks.
Leaving ODM is the best thing that could happen to Musalia. All his peers are now political heavy weights in their own rights, he realized that just before it got a bit late. He will recoup, that I am sure.
In the meantime, ODM and Raila will soon realize how Musalia was dear to them. The funerals are serving them right at the moment. But when it comes to the real work of filling Musalia's shoes, that is when the real trouble will begin.
Look at Balala, they threw him out arguing that he has no support. The last three weeks have seen the PM literally pitch camp at the coast, na bado.
When I see the names being bandied around as the possible Musalia replacements, I laugh myself silly. For instance, how can anyone in their rightful minds think of Marende as a running mate? Worse still, Frankline Bett or Omar Hassan? It is laughable to say the least. They will soon realize that, there comes a time when Kenya actually becomes smaller than Migori.
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