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Post by mwalimumkuu on Dec 5, 2012 3:39:07 GMT 3
Not sure what Mudavadi got in this deal especially after his earlier statement that he was still in the race. Like Rais put it, the next few days will be interesting. Regardless, Mudavadi provides the icing on the cake for the UhuRuto coalition in closing this thing in the first round and be done over with. Mwalimumkuu, You seriously have to pull your head out of the sand. The unveiling of CORD has Uhuru frantically looking to relinquish his fabled run for the presidency. TNA/URP is cobbling rushed coalitions in the dead of night and having the old bespectacled Ole Kaparo signing foolscaps in the dark… and you think things are fine? The house is on fire my friend. Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you
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Post by Mobimba on Dec 5, 2012 6:54:36 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, You seriously have to pull your head out of the sand. The unveiling of CORD has Uhuru frantically looking to relinquish his fabled run for the presidency. TNA/URP is cobbling rushed coalitions in the dead of night and having the old bespectacled Ole Kaparo signing foolscaps in the dark… and you think things are fine? The house is on fire my friend. Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you Mwalimumkuu, UhuRuto’s intent being the ‘effective killing of a 3rd force’ might be valid. I’ll give you that. I’ll go further to say its sound strategy. Divide and rule, tested and proven; it works. That said, you must make me understand why anyone would go to sleep praying and wishing for a ghostly nightmare. Yes my friend, an attempt at a 1st round win without a legitimate 3rd force is a devilish nightmare for UhuRuto. This is what I mean. A strong 3rd force in the 1st round takes the punch out of a Raila ticket NOT an UhuRuto ticket. To look at it another way, a strong 3rd force would not be proclaiming a message similar to the TNA/URP manifesto i.e. down with the ICC/Hague, we are being sacrificed, no foreigners allowed, peace in RV and nowhere else etc. Rather, a legit 3rd force would craft itself into a rule of law kind of coalition, devoid of tribe and with utmost respect for the constitution. Essentially, ideals of the ODM put across in an urbane and suave manner. Tunawesmake. Now, with the ‘killing’ of the 3rd force, CORD takes about 100% of Western, Coast, Luo Nyanza, Eastern and the greater portions of Nairobi, Gusii Land and NE and small parts of RV. TNA/URP of course remains a Kikuyu/Kalenjin affair festering in Central and swathes of the RV. Enough to win? Who knows. BTW, a Mudavadi (born in RV)/Ruto ticket will fail on its onset. For Mudavadi to succeed, he must be a million miles away from the coalition of the accused. He must be fresh. Lakini now he’s finished. Plus no self-respecting voter from Central will vote for an ‘Anything’/Ruto ticket.
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Post by Mobimba on Dec 5, 2012 6:57:01 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, You seriously have to pull your head out of the sand. The unveiling of CORD has Uhuru frantically looking to relinquish his fabled run for the presidency. TNA/URP is cobbling rushed coalitions in the dead of night and having the old bespectacled Ole Kaparo signing foolscaps in the dark… and you think things are fine? The house is on fire my friend. Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you Mwalimu UhuRuto’s intent being the ‘effective killing of a 3rd force’ might be valid. I’ll give you that. I’ll go further to say its sound strategy. Divide and rule, tested and proven; it works. That said, you must make me understand why anyone would go to sleep praying and wishing for a ghostly nightmare. Yes my friend, an attempt at a 1st round win without a legitimate 3rd force is a devilish nightmare for UhuRuto. This is what I mean. A strong 3rd force in the 1st round takes the punch out of a Raila ticket NOT an UhuRuto ticket. To look at it another way, a strong 3rd force would not be proclaiming a message similar to the TNA/URP manifesto i.e. down with the ICC/Hague, we are being sacrificed, no foreigners allowed, peace in RV and nowhere else etc. Rather, a legit 3rd force would craft itself into a rule of law kind of coalition, devoid of tribe and with utmost respect for the constitution. Essentially, ideals of the ODM put across in an urbane and suave manner. Tunawesmake. Now, with the ‘killing’ of the 3rd force, CORD takes about 100% of Western, Coast, Luo Nyanza, Eastern and the greater portions of Nairobi, Gusii Land and NE and small parts of RV. TNA/URP of course remains a Kikuyu/Kalenjin affair festering in Central and swathes of the RV. Enough to win? Who knows. BTW, a Mudavadi (born in RV)/Ruto ticket will fail on its onset. For Mudavadi to succeed, he must be a million miles away from the coalition of the accused. He must be fresh. Lakini now he’s finished. Plus no self-respecting voter from Central will vote for an ‘Anything’/Ruto ticket.
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Post by Mobimba on Dec 5, 2012 7:14:35 GMT 3
In simpler terms, a 1st round vote without a strong 3rd force is essentially a bona fide two horse race; which would be exactly the situation in the 2nd round.
And we all know the only thing that keeps Uhuru in tears all day and night is the thought of facing Raila in the 2nd round. He in fact almost gave up his quest for the presidency last night. He’s terrified.
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Post by joblesscorner on Dec 5, 2012 9:33:52 GMT 3
How It Happened on Tuesday 4th December - Ngilu Appears For Railonzo ceremony - Raila speaks before Kalonzo, raising more speculation as to who will be VP - Henry Kosgey meets Uhuru and Ruto after the signing - Henry Kosgey declines to defect to TNA-URP - Mudavadi releases statement of his deal with PK and Tuju - Mudavadi calls off the signing ceremony - Mudavadi meets Uhuru and Ruto - The three fail to agree - Mudavadi releases statement that he will go it alone - The three meet again - Mudavadi accepts to be the majority leader.
Source: nairobiwire.com
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Post by bkichwa on Dec 5, 2012 10:34:13 GMT 3
Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you Mwalimu UhuRuto’s intent being the ‘effective killing of a 3rd force’ might be valid. I’ll give you that. I’ll go further to say its sound strategy. Divide and rule, tested and proven; it works. That said, you must make me understand why anyone would go to sleep praying and wishing for a ghostly nightmare. Yes my friend, an attempt at a 1st round win without a legitimate 3rd force is a devilish nightmare for UhuRuto. This is what I mean. A strong 3rd force in the 1st round takes the punch out of a Raila ticket NOT an UhuRuto ticket. To look at it another way, a strong 3rd force would not be proclaiming a message similar to the TNA/URP manifesto i.e. down with the ICC/Hague, we are being sacrificed, no foreigners allowed, peace in RV and nowhere else etc. Rather, a legit 3rd force would craft itself into a rule of law kind of coalition, devoid of tribe and with utmost respect for the constitution. Essentially, ideals of the ODM put across in an urbane and suave manner. Tunawesmake. Now, with the ‘killing’ of the 3rd force, CORD takes about 100% of Western, Coast, Luo Nyanza, Eastern and the greater portions of Nairobi, Gusii Land and NE and small parts of RV. TNA/URP of course remains a Kikuyu/Kalenjin affair festering in Central and swathes of the RV. Enough to win? Who knows. BTW, a Mudavadi (born in RV)/Ruto ticket will fail on its onset. For Mudavadi to succeed, he must be a million miles away from the coalition of the accused. He must be fresh. Lakini now he’s finished. Plus no self-respecting voter from Central will vote for an ‘Anything’/Ruto ticket. Lincoln, I beg to disagree with you. Strongly. Let's not kid ourselves, we are a citizenry that votes according to tribe. If the Mudavadi-Ruto ticket comes to fruition, how on earth do you figure that CORD takes 100% Western. Maybe explain this one to me. For the first time their son will be on the presidential ticket, backed by 2 strong voting blocks and they decide to give their votes elsewhere...because of the Hague??? Lincoln, are you on the ground here in Kenya or are you analyzing all this from abroad? With regard to Central/Gema, given a choice between Mudavadi-Ruto with UK being Majority Party Leader, and Raila-Kalonzo with Maina Njenga being the only Gema rep in this grouping, the former coalition will win the day in Gema land big time. Remember that Gema, during Mudavadi's early foray out of ODM some months ago, were ready to go with 100% him if UK was to sit this election out. So this scenario with Ruto as VP won't be much different. If Mudavadi becomes his coalitions presidential candidate, I see a strong possibility of this group taking it in the first round. Realpolitik I believe is the operative word here.
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Post by Mobimba on Dec 5, 2012 10:59:46 GMT 3
Mwalimu UhuRuto’s intent being the ‘effective killing of a 3rd force’ might be valid. I’ll give you that. I’ll go further to say its sound strategy. Divide and rule, tested and proven; it works. That said, you must make me understand why anyone would go to sleep praying and wishing for a ghostly nightmare. Yes my friend, an attempt at a 1st round win without a legitimate 3rd force is a devilish nightmare for UhuRuto. This is what I mean. A strong 3rd force in the 1st round takes the punch out of a Raila ticket NOT an UhuRuto ticket. To look at it another way, a strong 3rd force would not be proclaiming a message similar to the TNA/URP manifesto i.e. down with the ICC/Hague, we are being sacrificed, no foreigners allowed, peace in RV and nowhere else etc. Rather, a legit 3rd force would craft itself into a rule of law kind of coalition, devoid of tribe and with utmost respect for the constitution. Essentially, ideals of the ODM put across in an urbane and suave manner. Tunawesmake. Now, with the ‘killing’ of the 3rd force, CORD takes about 100% of Western, Coast, Luo Nyanza, Eastern and the greater portions of Nairobi, Gusii Land and NE and small parts of RV. TNA/URP of course remains a Kikuyu/Kalenjin affair festering in Central and swathes of the RV. Enough to win? Who knows. BTW, a Mudavadi (born in RV)/Ruto ticket will fail on its onset. For Mudavadi to succeed, he must be a million miles away from the coalition of the accused. He must be fresh. Lakini now he’s finished. Plus no self-respecting voter from Central will vote for an ‘Anything’/Ruto ticket. Lincoln, I beg to disagree with you. Strongly. Let's not kid ourselves, we are a citizenry that votes according to tribe. If the Mudavadi-Ruto ticket comes to fruition, how on earth do you figure that CORD takes 100% Western. Maybe explain this one to me. For the first time their son will be on the presidential ticket, backed by 2 strong voting blocks and they decide to give their votes elsewhere...because of the Hague??? Lincoln, are you on the ground here in Kenya or are you analyzing all this from abroad? With regard to Central/Gema, given a choice between Mudavadi-Ruto with UK being Majority Party Leader, and Raila-Kalonzo with Maina Njenga being the only Gema rep in this grouping, the former coalition will win the day in Gema land big time. Remember that Gema, during Mudavadi's early foray out of ODM some months ago, were ready to go with 100% him if UK was to sit this election out. So this scenario with Ruto as VP won't be much different. If Mudavadi becomes his coalitions presidential candidate, I see a strong possibility of this group taking it in the first round. Realpolitik I believe is the operative word here. Bkichwa. To clarify: The scenario I spoke of, 100% Western going to CORD, is where the TNA/URP/UDF ticket is Uhuru/Ruto. I see I wasn’t clear. My bad. But as you see, I acknowledge our tribal nature. The larger point I was trying to make - a strong 3rd force would have been beneficial to UhuRuto. Water under the bridge now. I however maintain that a Mudavadi/Ruto ticket will not excite Central as many imagine. I think the initial excitement of Mudavadi tours were based on the anticipation that he will share a ticket with Uhuru. I was in Kerugoya so I know.
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Post by reporter911 on Dec 5, 2012 17:51:30 GMT 3
Mwalimu UhuRuto’s intent being the ‘effective killing of a 3rd force’ might be valid. I’ll give you that. I’ll go further to say its sound strategy. Divide and rule, tested and proven; it works. That said, you must make me understand why anyone would go to sleep praying and wishing for a ghostly nightmare. Yes my friend, an attempt at a 1st round win without a legitimate 3rd force is a devilish nightmare for UhuRuto. This is what I mean. A strong 3rd force in the 1st round takes the punch out of a Raila ticket NOT an UhuRuto ticket. To look at it another way, a strong 3rd force would not be proclaiming a message similar to the TNA/URP manifesto i.e. down with the ICC/Hague, we are being sacrificed, no foreigners allowed, peace in RV and nowhere else etc. Rather, a legit 3rd force would craft itself into a rule of law kind of coalition, devoid of tribe and with utmost respect for the constitution. Essentially, ideals of the ODM put across in an urbane and suave manner. Tunawesmake. Now, with the ‘killing’ of the 3rd force, CORD takes about 100% of Western, Coast, Luo Nyanza, Eastern and the greater portions of Nairobi, Gusii Land and NE and small parts of RV. TNA/URP of course remains a Kikuyu/Kalenjin affair festering in Central and swathes of the RV. Enough to win? Who knows. BTW, a Mudavadi (born in RV)/Ruto ticket will fail on its onset. For Mudavadi to succeed, he must be a million miles away from the coalition of the accused. He must be fresh. Lakini now he’s finished. Plus no self-respecting voter from Central will vote for an ‘Anything’/Ruto ticket. Lincoln, I beg to disagree with you. Strongly. Let's not kid ourselves, we are a citizenry that votes according to tribe. If the Mudavadi-Ruto ticket comes to fruition, how on earth do you figure that CORD takes 100% Western. Maybe explain this one to me. For the first time their son will be on the presidential ticket, backed by 2 strong voting blocks and they decide to give their votes elsewhere...because of the Hague??? Lincoln, are you on the ground here in Kenya or are you analyzing all this from abroad? With regard to Central/Gema, given a choice between Mudavadi-Ruto with UK being Majority Party Leader, and Raila-Kalonzo with Maina Njenga being the only Gema rep in this grouping, the former coalition will win the day in Gema land big time. Remember that Gema, during Mudavadi's early foray out of ODM some months ago, were ready to go with 100% him if UK was to sit this election out. So this scenario with Ruto as VP won't be much different. If Mudavadi becomes his coalitions presidential candidate, I see a strong possibility of this group taking it in the first round. Realpolitik I believe is the operative word here. What % of votes will Musala garner in western when Most Luhya's are aware that he is Uhuru" Protogee ? a controlled man with no back bone as rumour has it he was bought and paid for some months back and even by pretending to be in negotiations with Peter Kenneth and Tuju..most kenyans knew he had no powers to sign any side deal.. he was owned by Uhuru "TNT" lock, stock and barrel.. Maybe 2% of the vote.. that makes him irrelevant... even on the Uhuruto ticket and even if Uhuru were to step down an gave him the presidential ticket as it has been their plan all along... UHURU AT HON. SAITOTI'S FUNERAL ALI TOBOA THE SIRI!
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Dec 5, 2012 18:41:18 GMT 3
Here it is, the coalition of the people. I am told ODM has since cancelled its meeting earlier slated for this weekend in Nairobi following the coming together of URP/TNA/UDF and others.
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Post by reporter911 on Dec 5, 2012 19:41:03 GMT 3
Here it is, the coalition of the people. I am told ODM has since cancelled its meeting earlier slated for this weekend in Nairobi following the coming together of URP/TNA/UDF and others. What a Joke? Nice to see the boda boda train heading to Hague.. wait a minute? Mudavadi? will be holding forte for the two while being controlled from the Hague ;D ;D ata school kids can see through that smokescreen.. of Uhuruto & mudavadi !!it ain't going to work
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Dec 5, 2012 20:58:42 GMT 3
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Post by mzee on Dec 5, 2012 21:15:14 GMT 3
Come baby come
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Post by reporter911 on Dec 5, 2012 21:42:42 GMT 3
Kanu has no leg to stand on it was Uhuru's party all along.. didn't expect them to back anyone else ;D stay the impunity statuesque through Kenyatta era, Moi, Kibaki and now Uhuru.. NEXT? GIVE US SOME BEEF NOT CRUMBS
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Post by reevjay on Dec 5, 2012 23:06:20 GMT 3
So apparently Mudavadi was read the riot act by the real owners of UDF and told that if he signs a coalition pact with any other party, he would be doing it as an individual without the backing of UDF. He's now forced to seek nomination from delegates of his own party + URP/TNA most of whom he doesn't know and has never met. Full speed to political oblivion.
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Post by reevjay on Dec 5, 2012 23:07:21 GMT 3
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Post by reporter911 on Dec 6, 2012 1:46:45 GMT 3
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Post by reporter911 on Dec 6, 2012 1:58:19 GMT 3
yes the owner of UDF told Mdvd into his face that he must support UK/WSR candidature By abich on 2012-12-05 05:58:54pole By Tetty on 2012-12-05 07:00:52Political games!!! By Mjwaki on 2012-12-05 07:17:42Ashindwe By kevin agamera on 2012-12-05 07:18:21I have never thought of Musalia Mudavadi like this but yeye ni kama kondoo imenyeshewa n desperate 4 shade. It then finds a pumkin leaf bt it cn only cover its head, n feels comfortable..........Dont be disguised with T.N.A. UHURU HAS SPENT TOO MUCH TO HAVE YOU AS A COMPROMISE CANDIDATE By Milton odalo on 2012-12-05 07:44:27Mudavadi he still the project of st house but he doesn't know he don't have any vote in western except 4 his family, so nothing he can gain 2 uhuruto, and if uhuru step a side central pple cannot vote 2 any tribe insted they can turn 2 p kenneth, so that is 2 send mudavadi home politely. By Adede on 2012-12-05 07:49:34Waw! If the above scenario depicted above is anything to go by, then I have lost even the slightest respect I had for Shemeji Musalia Mudavadi! By Kauma on 2012-12-05 07:55:21It is now clear MM is fighting a personal interest game not at de interest of the Luhya community.Bye in de field of Politics.You are completely gone By DAGGY on 2012-12-05 07:58:33UDF WAS FORCED TO EITHER JOIN TNA OR BE DENIED THE UDF CRTIFICATE WHICH IS KIBAKI'S PROPERTY By suzan athoes on 2012-12-05 08:15:33Mdavadi neva lerns a lesson. By DAVE on 2012-12-05 08:23:37I would rather die standing than leave on ma knees.MUDAVADI SON OF MOSES your father who built KAIMOSI would go back to the grave akiamka akupate. By Hellen Ajiambo on 2012-12-05 08:36:07Stop cheap propaganda! We are not deterred an inch.. By Mourice Aton on 2012-12-05 08:56:38Wetangula to take the control of Luyha commuinity n belive me WETANGULA will one day be the President of this country called Kenya. MM am sory 4 u even ua face told show us that thea was something going wrong with you Pole sana..... By Mourice Aton on 2012-12-05 08:57:19Wetangula to take the control of Luyha commuinity n belive me WETANGULA will one day be the President of this country called Kenya. MM am sory 4 u even ua face show us that thea was something going wrong with you Pole sana..... By Achembi on 2012-12-05 09:10:25Uncle mudavadi, i thot u learned alesson wen uhuru project waz on, u still make the same mistakes 2brng luhyas all thz shame,enway gd luck kwa wamboi kibaki nd leave us forge our destiny.! By Jeff on 2012-12-05 09:22:12Musalia i told u this things but u dint hear me dude! Now see,just see musalia.anyway mwiba wa kujidunga mwenyewe ............. By Wuod Nyarkonido on 2012-12-05 09:30:13Ninamsikitikia huyu kijana wa Mululu. He should mature up and stop acting like a baby. Now that everybody knows he is the only bonafide Nyeri and state house project will he ever ever get any votes from the rest of Kenya? By Sam on 2012-12-05 09:59:28Lets not heap insults on this man. He has rights to exercise that are guranteed by the new dispensation. Lets wait for the people to decide. May the best win and guide us Kenyans By giftmatano ngari on 2012-12-05 10:22:23i thnk we(kenyanz)gona do it rite,chose da rite leadr n not panga'ng'a o tribalsm By sule on 2012-12-05 10:36:20poor mudavadi......TNA/URP/UDF......ni kanu rebranded.....its a shame seeing a grown up behaving like a juvenile.......this is somebody who akiwa prezzo anaweza overthrowiwa anytyme.....shameless By redsmilyah on 2012-12-05 12:34:06Am xoo ashamed of MM decision to join that alliance kwani ataamka link zone ever since he left ODM he commited political suicide n now he just did his own burial a feel xowi for you dude noways somebody once xed let the sleeping dogs lie ukiziamsha wewe ndiye utakaye umwa sina mengine Saudi ya hayo By jarae on 2012-12-05 15:40:46bwana MM has done what we call self political burial , he is gone politically dead completely
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Post by Omwenga on Dec 6, 2012 3:45:54 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, You seriously have to pull your head out of the sand. The unveiling of CORD has Uhuru frantically looking to relinquish his fabled run for the presidency. TNA/URP is cobbling rushed coalitions in the dead of night and having the old bespectacled Ole Kaparo signing foolscaps in the dark… and you think things are fine? The house is on fire my friend. Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you Mwalimumkuu, Much as you agree with me re there not being Round 2 (albeit for different reasons) I agree with you MM's last minute joining TNA effectively made the so-called "Third Force" impotent. Now, as for the rest of what you have said, you're wrong as usual. First, neither Ruto nor Uhuru nor the entire anti-Raila force for that matter has ever been in the driver's seat therefore you're wrong that they are now "back" to that seat. If you have any doubts, take your time and review all polls taken since before 2007 and you'll find there has always been one man most popular among all Kenyan politicians and his name is not Mwai Kibaki but Kibaki owes him his presidency. Second, you say, "If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies." For reasons I need not get into here, the only person who can win in a landslide as I predict will be the case, is Raila. In the unlikely event either Uhuru or MM wins this thing, it will be a squeaker and half the voters voting would have to be under heavy medication or some mind altering drugs when they go to the polls if it's MM who does. I do not buy and neither should anyone buy the PNU/TNA propaganda that MM is the most acceptable "neutral" candidate; acceptable to who and for what "neutral" reasons? Is shielding the ICC suspects acceptable to Kenyans other than those who don't care about PEV and its aftermath? Is siding with the ICC suspects or promising to protect them "neutral?" I can go on but you get my drift. You ask, "how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? You have committed two fallacies in one short sentence and that's commendable but let's just say Ruto has not left a hole that cannot be filled neither is the combined force of CORD and likely vote harvest of which any of these parties are a part something to easily dismiss as insignificant unless one was joking or otherwise not serious. Finally, but not least, I did read the Dominic Odipo tribal math piece and here is how I blogged about it: One of the most useless tribal math based analysis I have seen for a while. If I had time and cared to, I would show how a mannequin would do even better. Instead of engaging in this type of wishful tribal math thinking, we should focus on what each of these leaders have to offer our country in terms of moving us forward and who among those vying is best qualified to lead the country to the next and higher level of peace and prosperity.Tribal math has no relevance in that analysis because in the end its what each of us as individual Kenyans gain from governance that matters, not what tribe we belong to or at least that should be our collective view and belief.
Raila and ODM will make just such case county by county and are confident their message will be heard and when the votes are cast and counted, Raila and ODM will emerge as the big winners while those counting on tribal math will be the big losers.
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Post by joblesscorner on Dec 6, 2012 4:35:41 GMT 3
Omwenga,
Dominic stated clearly "if" meaning it is conditional clause. He based on previous elections and referendum and so forth. The eminent personalities have stated that we are more tribal than 2007. So how can you dismiss Dominic Odipo, when the main leaders are tribalizing us.
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Post by OtishOtish on Dec 6, 2012 5:33:57 GMT 3
Omwenga's looks like high-minded mischief. Nobody---neither "leaders" nor the sheep---are in the least bit interested in the idea of electing leaders on the basis of their ability to solve Kenya's problems. Take a look all over the Kenyan media. Take a look all over the Kenyan "cyberforums". The only thing most people seem to care about is who's going to win, which of "Our Man" are going to get into State House. And for that all the calculations are based on tribal arithmetic. What's more, we all know it---because that's how it's always been.
Just the other day, an important parliamentary group reminded us of something seemingly important---that something like half of all Kenyans don't get to eat properly and that something like 10% would starve to death if it weren't for the begging of foreigners. That barely got the tiniest blip---not from the "leaders", and not from the sheep.
As an alternative to tearing out one's hair and generally going nuts, perhaps we should simply accept that this is the way it is and hope that in, say, 50 years, we will have made some small positive movements
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Post by Omwenga on Dec 6, 2012 9:00:03 GMT 3
Omwenga,
Dominic stated clearly "if" meaning it is conditional clause. He based on previous elections and referendum and so forth. The eminent personalities have stated that we are more tribal than 2007. So how can you dismiss Dominic Odipo, when the main leaders are tribalizing us.Joblesscorner, I note this is the second post from you in response to yours truly that I have seen that is devoid of your usual ad hominem attacks and other irrelevancies and that being the case, I accordingly remove you from my "Ignore/Do Not Respond" column and respond to you as long as you maintain it that way. There is so much all of us can learn from each other if we can only focus on the issues and not all these other behavior that adds no value to the debate and that doesn't mean we all have to agree or even like each other; far from it. We can disagree and not even like each other but be civil and decent in how we do so. Now, as to what you have said, I fully understand as others have suggested that we are in a tribal mode akin to 2007 but that doesn't mean that we accept it or do nothing to change it. As the children who were once "the future" this is the future we each owe our beloved nation an obligation to do what we can to end or or at least significantly minimize the role of tribalism in our country's affairs, including its reversal as a major determining factor in how we elect our leaders. Analysis such as Odipo's deliberately or unwittingly contributes in the opposite direction, namely, tending to show tribalism is the way to go or it shall go rather than showing analysis showing why it isn't or can't be the way to go. That's my point on this in a nutshell.
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Post by cheshirecat on Dec 6, 2012 11:01:46 GMT 3
Mwalimumkuu, You seriously have to pull your head out of the sand. The unveiling of CORD has Uhuru frantically looking to relinquish his fabled run for the presidency. TNA/URP is cobbling rushed coalitions in the dead of night and having the old bespectacled Ole Kaparo signing foolscaps in the dark… and you think things are fine? The house is on fire my friend. Lincoln, Rais and Omwenga: You surely misread what the inclusion of Mudavadi in this thing is. What UhuRuto did with this single simple move was to effectively kill the third force that was begining to gain momentum with the capacity to send this thing to round two. With that done with they are back in the drivers seat. And here I want to agree with ndugu Omwenga that there will be no round two, but differ with him on who will take it. UhuRuto and now with MM are still way up there. If Uhuru is head of the ticket, they will be above 55%, but if it is Mudavadi it will be in high sixties or low seventies. You see, the thing that is having y'all excited with cord is the presence of parties such as mkenya solidarity, Magara's PDP etc. You forget that these are parties with less than six hundred votes it. I mean, how do you plug the hole left by Ruto, Mudavadi, Balala and possibly Nyagah with six hundred votes? It is not just possible. I am not sure whether you read Domic Odipo's article on these alliances and what they mean in terms raw numbers and county weights especially in the manner in which they have now aligned. If you did not let me know and I will post it here for your review. These fifteen mini parties will be united in opposition I tell you During the end of the Nazis, Hitler, hunkered in his bunker in Berlin still believed he had hundreds of thousands of soldiers in his command and to his last day kept issuing orders to imaginary armies. Desperation creates amazing illusions; such as Maina Njenga and his Mungikis are beloved in central or Wetangula is a force in Western, or even that kalonzo has any credibility left. If Mudavadi is the flag bearer, with Kalenjins, luhyas and kikuyus behind him, he will sweep it with a landslide; first round.. As for crooks and thugs. save for Kingwa and perhaps PK and Ole Kiyapi , non of those clowns on the scene would muster an integrity test in most countries where voters see beyond their tribal enclaves. as it is, we are just trading crooks for crooks
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Post by Mobimba on Dec 6, 2012 12:35:01 GMT 3
Uhuru must be one pissed off guy. He spent billions building TNA so he can run for the presidency. Now he must leave it all to Mudavadi.
In the other corner of hell, Ruto crouches, his ears propped up… as if waiting to be told that he too must forego his desire to deputize the presidency. At the moment, nobody has built up enough courage to drive home that nugget of truth. I’m told Ruto has an explosive temper.
No Uhuru, No Ruto. Uhuru drops off due to the ICC. On what basis does Ruto linger on? Yeah, I know. Add that misery into that fiery pit.
What next you ask? Well, how about a Mudavadi/Keter or a Mudavadi/Kuttuny ticket?
Kwa saa hii, the only way to beat a Raila/Kalonzo ticket is to deposit about 5 billion shillings in Kalonzo’s bank account.
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Post by bkichwa on Dec 6, 2012 13:07:13 GMT 3
Uhuru must be one pissed off guy. He spent billions building TNA so he can run for the presidency. Now he must leave it all to Mudavadi. In the other corner of hell, Ruto crouches, his ears propped up… as if waiting to be told that he too must forego his desire to deputize the presidency. At the moment, nobody has built up enough courage to drive home that nugget of truth. I’m told Ruto has an explosive temper. No Uhuru, No Ruto. Uhuru drops off due to the ICC. On what basis does Ruto linger on? Yeah, I know. Add that misery into that fiery pit. What next you ask? Well, how about a Mudavadi/Keter or a Mudavadi/Kuttuny ticket? Kwa saa hii, the only way to beat a Raila/Kalonzo ticket is to deposit about 5 billion shillings in Kalonzo’s bank account. Lincoln, This thing will be over in round one, in favor of Muda and Uhuruto group. Raila's coalition is weak, numbers wise. Kalonzo is not perceived as a trustworthy nor meaningful leader by very many, such that folks outside of his Kamba community would go out of their way to vote for him and his group. Raila on the other hand elicits love or hate and/or mistrust. With major ethnic groups having their leader(s) on the opposite side of Raila means that Raila shall not be getting most of the votes from these ethnic groups. This is a fact we have to acknowledge. So where shall CORD get its election-winning votes from? I think it's foolhardy to imagine that the Uhuruto duo hadn't imagined and thoroughly thought out all possible scenarios that work around the Hague factor. Let's wait and see how their strategy in this regard plays out. Fundamentally though, this group has a solid chunk of Kenya's voters already and assuredly in their support. Throw in Mudavadi and you arguably have a significant top-up to put the March 4th contest away in the first round. We have not yet even discussed other ethnic groups in Kenya, in which this team has significant support from (as does Raila to be fair). And I suspect that we shall be seeing more defections coming in the next few days, which shall perhaps make this election picture that much more clearer. Again, Kenya's sad reality is that we vote according to ethnicity. CORD's attempt to have a platform about reforms and democracy, etc, is pointless. Moreover, it's a very empty approach that can't work today in 2012 after Raila has been part of the executive and lots of his evils and weaknesses have been on display for all to see. The game is now different from before when he was a perennial opposition fella always on the outside looking in, and righteously saying all the right things about how our leadership and governance should be (and that he can provide this). Someone who said all the right things, but who wasn't tested as regards actions that match his words. He can no longer pull this kind of stuff off because people now have a pretty clear picture of what his leadership represents and is about. He has become yet another one of our kawaida leaders whose government would support and condone the ills that previous governments have. This is why I keep telling Phil to drop the whole righteous talk about reforms and what-not, because Kenyans are not foolish. They can see through all these guys.
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Post by cheshirecat on Dec 6, 2012 13:38:35 GMT 3
Uhuru must be one pissed off guy. He spent billions building TNA so he can run for the presidency. Now he must leave it all to Mudavadi. In the other corner of hell, Ruto crouches, his ears propped up… as if waiting to be told that he too must forego his desire to deputize the presidency. At the moment, nobody has built up enough courage to drive home that nugget of truth. I’m told Ruto has an explosive temper. No Uhuru, No Ruto. Uhuru drops off due to the ICC. On what basis does Ruto linger on? Yeah, I know. Add that misery into that fiery pit. What next you ask? Well, how about a Mudavadi/Keter or a Mudavadi/Kuttuny ticket? Kwa saa hii, the only way to beat a Raila/Kalonzo ticket is to deposit about 5 billion shillings in Kalonzo’s bank account. I could reply the 5b claim on Kalonzo but to show you how worthless a leader he is, much much better to just dig up what you and the rest of the orange ilk have written about him over the years. How he has moved from the ka-looser of last week to political heavyweight worth 5b today is surely the most magical transformation in Kenyan political history, perhaps only rivaled by Miguna's shift from genius political adviser to 'mad man' in the space of a few months. Ofcourse the two cases have a common thread albeit in opposite directions...
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