euonyi
Full Member
Me, myself and I
Posts: 179
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Post by euonyi on Jul 27, 2012 18:38:41 GMT 3
The moment I saw Phil's post, I knew  that either Kamale or MwalimuBig would be the first to challenge the results... I would not waste much breath in analyzing the obvious ;D |
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Post by roughrider on Jul 27, 2012 19:00:21 GMT 3
@ Kamale, At quick glance, the differences in the two polls are glaring: In May 2012 during a space of two days, Infotrak interviewed sample of 2400 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya. In June 2012 during a space of eight days, Infotrak interviewed a sample of 11,616 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,533,700 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 1 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all the 47 counties of Kenya all of the 290 proposed constituencies.Check the link above. ..so what is new? is it the sample or the duration and which of these make the poll a lot more accurate? Actually, Phil is right. Statistically, the differences are glaring. That is if you glare back. You see, a bigger sample (given the same population) would reduce the standard deviation (or in this case sampling error). At a confidence interval of 95%, this error is +or - 1% in this poll - much smaller than the previous poll. This is simply saying, this is a more accurate poll. Further, this poll - indeed it is the first I have seen of this kind in recent months - appears to have looked at county level results; which we know are critical for presidential elections. Partially, this is why the sample is bigger. This is extremely useful for political planning. I think all the attacks aimed at the pollster are hot air. Even private polling seems to reflect these results, more or less. |
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Post by raiswakesho on Jul 28, 2012 2:51:32 GMT 3
Guys this is statistics not plain arithmetic...someone wants an explanation to a 6.9% just because RAO is on top!! Truth be told, RAO is still the most popular candidate and guys can choose to be economic with the truth all they want but at the end of the day, numbers don't lie.
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Post by phil on Jul 28, 2012 16:30:28 GMT 3
Handlers of Uhuru and Mudavadi are still struggling to grapple with the Infotrak poll released yesterday. Having spent hundreds of millions attacking Raila and ODM, launching parties and planting propaganda all over, they fail to understand why Raila's numbers are not changing. You can sense the bitterness from among the KANU orphans. One wonders why these guys never ask similar questions when other research companies publish almost similar results. Most shocking of all is the fact that neither of the leading challengers can garnet 25% in half of the 47 counties. People like Moses Kuria is frank enough to accept that the so called G7/G8 alliance stands no chance against a Raila led ODM unless they come together and put their energies in supporting one candidate. Question is who? Here is a comment by Mudavadi's spokesperson, quite mistakenly relying on the report on the Star newspaper rather than downloading and analysing the entire report from Infotrak Harris. Kibisu also lets the cat out of the bag. Mudavadi's presidential hopes are based on the public perceptions arising out of the Miguna book. Ati favourite? Puleeeaase!!! Comment on Infotrak Poll
Saturday, July 28, 2012 2:24 PM
At its best the poll can be described as delusional and at worst as evasive.
Delusional because the numbers game has shifted significantly among presidential aspirants and any objective poll would capture this reality. This poll does not and we are comfortable to let some campaigns live in self-adulation while we gather the moss.
However, one wonders whether the percentages in The Star were an error or result of distortions by the pollster. How did the figure of 55% for Raila and 46% Mudavadi totalling 101% arise?
Evasive because it would seem the poll is a strategy to divert attention from the impact of the Miguna revelations. It's a desperate move. This will not work because many have yet to access the book, but once they do, the issues raised will not go way. This is why a poll done one-and-half months ago in June is being released now.
But the poll is dangerous in a devilish way; it seems designed to be setting a pattern reminiscent of 2007, where segments of the population supportive of a candidate is meant to believe they are
unassailable and therefore imprint the seeds to contesting the outcome of the next elections should results not favour them. Kenya is being set up for a contested poll by fudging figures.
This therefore requires the poll to be interrogated on the basis the new polls Act, especially who paid for it, to avoid the country being set up for heightened tension.
--
Kibisu-Kabatesi
Private Secretary
Director of Public Communication
Office of the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Local Government
Tel: 0722 812 797
0718 829 603
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Post by raiswakesho on Jul 28, 2012 17:27:38 GMT 3
According to the passage above, for whom did the poll indicate 31% of Kenyans would vote in the presidential election? The writer should go back to school, I think! Mank, Martha Karua has described that Ombija or is it Ambitho fellow very well. That she is just another Kenyan trying to earn a living under very difficult ecenomin times. You may therefore want to forgive them for they know not what they are doing, but simply offer services to the highest bidder. Mwalimu, so let's assume RAO was the highest bidder and therefore was ranked no. 1, can we also therefore assume that Uhuru also cut a check for a no. 2 slot? Some Africans amaze me!! |
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Post by nowayhaha on Jul 29, 2012 13:34:24 GMT 3
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Post by phil on Oct 2, 2012 10:49:09 GMT 3
Latest Ipsos Opinion Polls Raila 36 %, Uhuru 30%, Musalia 7%, Ruto 6 %, Kalonzo 5%, Karua 3%, Kenneth 1% Then this wierd rider from Synovate pollsters that we predicted way back that in a run off between Uhuru and Raila, Uhuru would get 50% while Raila would score 42%. 8% undecided! Cooking figures started in July, so this is fresh from the Synovate kitchen. Here's how it was predicted orange-democratic.blogspot.com/2012/08/revealed-grand-conspiracy-on-doctoring.html |
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Post by b6k on Oct 2, 2012 12:02:27 GMT 3
Latest Ipsos Opinion Polls Raila 36 %, Uhuru 30%, Musalia 7%, Ruto 6 %, Kalonzo 5%, Karua 3%, Kenneth 1% Then this wierd rider from Synovate pollsters that we predicted way back that in a run off between Uhuru and Raila, Uhuru would get 50% while Raila would score 42%. 8% undecided! Cooking figures started in July, so this is fresh from the Synovate kitchen. Here's how it was predicted orange-democratic.blogspot.com/2012/08/revealed-grand-conspiracy-on-doctoring.html , true to form why do you only tell part of the story when it comes to Synovate's "rider(s)". The other part of their rider says in the event of a run off, between Musalia Mudavadi & RAO, MM will edge Raila 47% to 44% with 8% undecided. NB Back in April they had RAO ahead by 43% to Mudavadi's 41%. Either way, in both run-off sceanarios RAO is the UNDERDOG. I hope he's ready to re-settle at his Opodo Farm ;D ;D ;D ;D The hearts & minds of this 8% will be fought for tooth & nail. It seems to me KE is being conditioned for yet another "too close to call" election regardless of who the last man standing will be... |
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Post by mzee on Oct 2, 2012 12:48:04 GMT 3
Steadman aka synovate has always been cooking figures.
This is not strange.
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Post by phil on Oct 2, 2012 13:33:37 GMT 3
Phil, true to form why do you only tell part of the story when it comes to Synovate's "rider(s)". The other part of their rider says in the event of a run off, between Musalia Mudavadi & RAO, MM will edge Raila 47% to 44% with 8% undecided. NB Back in April they had RAO ahead by 43% to Mudavadi's 41%. Either way, in both run-off sceanarios RAO is the UNDERDOG. I hope he's ready to re-settle at his Opodo Farm ;D ;D ;D ;D The hearts & minds of this 8% will be fought for tooth & nail. It seems to me KE is being conditioned for yet another "too close to call" election regardless of who the last man standing will be... The problem with you b6k is you normally post before you think. The gist of my posting is not the results as such. Read it again. I am actually revealing to you the goings on at IPSOSS SYNOVATE. We outed them way back and I provide you with the link. It is an open secret. Maggie Ireri who is the MD of Synovate is running an organisation whose senior staff have been heavily compromised by a leading presidential candidate. Ask yourself why the July poll results were never published? It seems the cat is slowly coming out of the bag. Here's another story on the same. Synovate Staff Threatens To Expose Management's Night Meetings With A Presidential Candidate
Posted by nairobi wire on 10/02/2012 in featured, news | 0 comments
'Whistle Blower' Waiting For Ipsos President For The Complete Spilling Of The Beans
Yesterday, we received an email message from a supposed staff member at Ipsos Synovate, who alleges that some top managers have been receiving money from a leading presidential candidate, to doctor opinion polls. Part of the mail reads, "Ever since when did we do opinion polls on CATI. We have all the information of all the night meetings between yourself, the management and some presidential aspirants"
The email author continues to say that the opinion polls are doctored in a realistic manner, not arousing clear discrepancies and in a realistic way. Apparently, the candidate is made to gain considerable ground slow but sure, despite the situation on the ground being different.
The author continues to write how staff members from certain tribes in Operations department were sacked, since they were believed to be sympathetic to their fellow tribes men contesting for the big seat.
The author promises to expose the corrupt managers when Ipsos president visits. "We are out to expose you. Wait until the president for ipsos comes we will spill the beans."
Heard or Seen Anything you'd like to share?
Email us on ireport@nairobiwire.com
© nairobiwire.com |
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Post by kamalet on Oct 2, 2012 14:09:37 GMT 3
Phil, true to form why do you only tell part of the story when it comes to Synovate's "rider(s)". The other part of their rider says in the event of a run off, between Musalia Mudavadi & RAO, MM will edge Raila 47% to 44% with 8% undecided. NB Back in April they had RAO ahead by 43% to Mudavadi's 41%. Either way, in both run-off sceanarios RAO is the UNDERDOG. I hope he's ready to re-settle at his Opodo Farm ;D ;D ;D ;D The hearts & minds of this 8% will be fought for tooth & nail. It seems to me KE is being conditioned for yet another "too close to call" election regardless of who the last man standing will be... The problem with you b6k is you normally post before you think. The gist of my posting is not the results as such. Read it again. I am actually revealing to you the goings on at IPSOSS SYNOVATE. We outed them way back and I provide you with the link. It is an open secret. Maggie Ireri who is the MD of Synovate is running an organisation whose senior staff have been heavily compromised by a leading presidential candidate. Ask yourself why the July poll results were never published? It seems the cat is slowly coming out of the bag. Here's another story on the same. Synovate Staff Threatens To Expose Management's Night Meetings With A Presidential Candidate
Posted by nairobi wire on 10/02/2012 in featured, news | 0 comments
'Whistle Blower' Waiting For Ipsos President For The Complete Spilling Of The Beans
Yesterday, we received an email message from a supposed staff member at Ipsos Synovate, who alleges that some top managers have been receiving money from a leading presidential candidate, to doctor opinion polls. Part of the mail reads, "Ever since when did we do opinion polls on CATI. We have all the information of all the night meetings between yourself, the management and some presidential aspirants"
The email author continues to say that the opinion polls are doctored in a realistic manner, not arousing clear discrepancies and in a realistic way. Apparently, the candidate is made to gain considerable ground slow but sure, despite the situation on the ground being different.
The author continues to write how staff members from certain tribes in Operations department were sacked, since they were believed to be sympathetic to their fellow tribes men contesting for the big seat.
The author promises to expose the corrupt managers when Ipsos president visits. "We are out to expose you. Wait until the president for ipsos comes we will spill the beans."
Heard or Seen Anything you'd like to share?
Email us on ireport@nairobiwire.com
© nairobiwire.com Phil Was there not an 'expose' also of manipulation of polls at infotrak? You might want to seek out a more reliably media house than Nairobi Wire! |
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Post by Omwenga on Oct 2, 2012 14:13:21 GMT 3
As any political student knows, all races in democratic societies tighten as the polling date approaches. This is certainly no different in Kenya where even though Raila has been leading in every poll for a very long time, his lead as been reducing as you would expect as others fare better--or worse, depending on which poll you're looking at. There is no doubt Uhuru has been gaining steadily against Raila and anyone who's not being partisan would readily agree barring the unusual, and as Raila himself has said it, this is a race between him and Uhuru. Everyone else is an has been, except for Ruto who may still play a key role in the winning side's prospects. That does not mean, however, as I have seen others suggest that whoever Ruto support automatically wins. It only means it will make it easier for that side to win for the RV vote will still be divided no matter who he backs and every indication is Ruto cannot deliver near the number delivered for the victor in 2007 (Raila) unless he agrees to back Raila in which case we shall have a repeat. In other words, if Ruto backs Raila, we have 2007 all over again; if he backs Uhuru, the road to State House gets a little pumpy for Raila but passable nonetheless as Raila can harvest enough votes in RV on his own, without Ruto and in sufficient numbers to march into State House as our fourth president in a contest between he and Uhuru--or anyone else for that matter. Note who I have not mentioned thus far in this analysis? Yes, Mudavadi. I have not because I maintain for the reasons I stated in Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi that the man is finished politically even before he started on his quest as presidential candidate under the banner KSG State House Project. Which brings me to this latest Synovate poll for which a few things can be noted. First, on just the basis of the headline, I can't wait to hear what anti-Railaists like David Ochwangi and others like him have to say about Synovate, which they have been trashing as unreliable simply because of it's consistently showing Raila winning. Will they change tune now and sing its praises simply because the poll now shows UK winning in Round 2, which I don't buy, anyway, for the reasons stated below? Second, and this is really key, the news in this poll is that even after being propped up as a State House project, Mudavadi is still at a lowly 7%! Does anyone need any more evidence to vindicate my conclusions in Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi? Third, I have been saying and repeat again Raila wins this thing in Round 1 there is no Round 2 to speak of despite what tribal math peddlers claim or believe. However, in the event we go to Round 2, I am equally confident Raila wins there because he is simply the better candidate than Uhuru; a fact even UK himself would readily admit, if he were to be intellectually honest. Finally, but not least, the reporter of this story commits a classic journalistic faux pas in claiming, thus, "While ODM is still popular with the electorate, the party will be concerned about the growing public disaffection within the party that has resulted to defections to rival parties." There is no evidence that there is "growing disaffection" within the party that has "resulted to defections to rival parties" and neither has the reporter presented any. What is happening in ODM, which is also happening with other parties, is exactly what you expect and always happens just before the general elections, namely, each politician wants to maximize their chances of being reelected and this is always a matter of local, not national politics, even though there are many instances where both are in unison in terms of prospects. Indeed, I know several Raila friends vying for a number of governorships but may do so not from ODM with the understanding they'll still back Raila in his bid for reelection as president. So, let's mourn the end of Mudavadi's political career and get ready to root for or cheer either Raila or Uhuru as these are the only two horses in this race worth paying attention to; the rest are non-starters as they have already proven. I am, of course, going with the assumption that UK runs and not chickens out in favor of supporting the Mudavadi project, a prospect doomed to fail anyways because it doesn't follow as the peddlers of tribal math say that a UK support for Mudavadi ensures the politically dead Mudavadi's coming back to life and being propelled to State House merely to serve as a robot controlled by UK and former Central plotters and salivating beneficiaries of the project. HMK (Hon. Martha Karua) and others would beg to differ, I am sure for she and others have said they're not into this tribal math and block voting plots and schemes others are breathlessly pursuing. Raila gets enough progressives like HMK in the Mount Kenya region to back him up as they have indicated they will, he secures himself a second victory to State House and forever changes the heretofore dynamics of tribalism being a major determinative factor in how we elect our president. That shall come to pass and I am sure most, if not all of us agree that will be a good thing not just for Raila and ODM, but, for the country as a whole. Uchambuzi Tanaka, www.omwenga.com |
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Post by mzee on Oct 2, 2012 15:05:40 GMT 3
Omwenga my man, sometimes you break it down like no other. And I’m not saying this because you think that Raila will win. I think that your analysis of Ruto and Mudvadi is spot on. Remember that Mudavadi officially joined the race before Uhuru Kenyatta formed TNA. He also joined the race before Raila Odinga declared that anyone who wishes to vie for the presidency should be allowed even if they were ICC bound. Uhuru forming TNA and Railas declaration pretty much sealed Mudavadis case.
The calculation from Mudavadi and his backers was that UK would either chicken out or be barred from contesting by the courts. None of the two will happen and UK and WSR will be on the ballot come the voting date. The vote harvest in UK and WSTR areas are dead and buried. It’s also my guess that there would be no reason for UK backing off in favor of Mudavadi for there is no guarantee that such an act would make Mudavadi a winner. I know for sure that if UK backs off, there are a number of centralians presidential aspirants who would easily and instantly fill the vacuum left. So those dreaming for UK to back off, be barred or even die are wasting precious time. Lastly, as far as votes are concerned, Raila holds sway in large chunks of the country and no amount of tribal matrix will disengage his grip. Majority of people who voted for Raila last time would still vote for him in the first round and I dare add if this thing goes to the second round, all who voted for him would vote for him again. The same cannot be said of Mudavadi. He is an untested and will get a few votes here and there that will not amount to an upset. For those who think that Kikuyus will not vote for Raila simply because he is a luo in the event he and Mudavadi remains in the field, I have this to say, watch this space.
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Post by deyiengs on Oct 2, 2012 15:57:00 GMT 3
Pathetic! And I don't mean the polls, I mean Raila supporters. You guys are very pathetic. When steadman had your man handily up you were all praises. Now ati they've cooked the polls. Wacheni upuzi. Y'all need to be responsible supporters. There's no way you will praise when your side is being shown as winners and condemn when they are now being cast as losers.
I warned you all about steadman, but most of you refused to listen. Haya, kazi kwenyu. Now what?
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Post by bkichwa on Oct 2, 2012 18:34:50 GMT 3
Pathetic! And I don't mean the polls, I mean Raila supporters. You guys are very pathetic. When steadman had your man handily up you were all praises. Now ati they've cooked the polls. Wacheni upuzi. Y'all need to be responsible supporters. There's no way you will praise when your side is being shown as winners and condemn when they are now being cast as losers. I warned you all about steadman, but most of you refused to listen. Haya, kazi kwenyu. Now what? Deyiengs, But why are you surprised at this behavior? It's the Jukwaa team-Raila modus operandi dating back years. As long as something supports their agenda, then it's good. If it doesn't, or the minute it changes in this regard, then it's shetani. Several examples here e.g. Miguna, Musalia Mudavadi, some opinion polls, Jukwaa's Onyango Oloo, Jukwaa Forum, as examples of "friends" turned "villains". Maina Njenga and Mungiki in turn are examples of the contrary i.e. villain turned friend. Common denominator here is 'unequivocal support for Raila', which is also the only constant. Everything else changes as required, like clothes on a body. Some call it hypocrisy, others 'having your cake and eating it', others flip flopping...and so on. It's what it is. |
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Post by nereah on Oct 2, 2012 18:38:44 GMT 3
opinion polls are just that. opinion polls.in usa, the latest one by cnn & co showed barrack obama and the mormon faithful mitt romney in a head to head in what the media calls statistical dead heat.
about a week ago, a number of them were putting obama a way ahead of romney. its hours away before the two invade our living rooms in the live debate and lets see what the pollsters make of them.
here in kenya, agwambo ;D has for the fifth straight year remain a numero uno, to the extend that news is today is not that he is the man kenyans still want to lad them but just about who but how he can be beaten to the punch.
we in odm have been spoiling for a good fight with a worthy opponent; and a shift in the body politics from the trivial,personality based (stopping raila) and balkanisation of kenya to an ideological contest that offers the increasingly informed electorate distinct choice/s.
it is a fact that odm has been benchmarked by even the also runs of kenyan politics who by some magical acts, managed to counterfeit our model and strategic engagement plans.
what is happening today is a culmination of a sustained onslaught that has been sustained by a well oiled machinery and driven by some of the most genius minds in this country.
listening to mutahi the ngunyi, one gets the impression that raila is done and the strategy has worked: that the rutos, ohurus, mudavadis et al had been told that beating agwambo from the national platform is counterproductive and wrestling him down would only be possible by balkanising kenya into ethnic blocks that erodes his national constituency.
there are those who are going to bed today at peace with themselves that raila is after all beateable and that the essential house of mumbi would perpetuate its hegemony with another kikuyu presidency in the scion of kenyatta family that ios uhuru kenyatta.
this has not been about stopping raila presidency at all cost but it has rather been laundering the soiled image of the essential house of mumbi. we must commend the strategist who had for long seen the biggest threat as the stigma that is negative perception of the kikuyu tribe that i adoringly refers to as the essential house of mumbi.
we are heading to the next round of election and thanks to the genius brains that have been working on agwambo's political downfall, the narrative is now not the kikuyu nuisance but the luo nuisance.
the attempt is being made at setting the stage of isolating the luos and agwambo and rendering them the common enemy as was the 2007 faux pas.but as many brilliant minds would rightly fault find, the 2007 skunk that has taken great efforts to launder from the essential house of mumbi cant and shall never be equated to the short term,boardroom driven and unsustainable propaganda, portrayal and machinations that is the anti-agwambo narrative.
which brings me to this latest polls findings of agwambo being beaten by mudavadi and ohuru in run offs.
may i go on record as not only recognizing but welcoming this poll findings just as i will of the rest to come.
the fact is that there has been a traction in the ohuru camp and it is a fact that jomo junior as my all time jukwaa favourite political maniac(where is this guy) would call him, is this time round on ascendance on his own sweat.
i can authoritatively assert here that ohuru and his strategists have earned the stripes they are wearing and for them the prime motivation is scientifically justifiable: where failure is not an option.
as i have argued elsewhere, its ohuru not agwambo that needs this presidency(read state power) more than any kenyans alive today; it is ohuru who has everything to lose in the sweepstakes.
in siasa moto moto, i will look at this numbers critically and attempt to explain away why uhuru's ascendance at the expense of kalonzo and ruto is after all a boon for odm and agwambo.
my pesa nane
typos highly regretted.
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Post by raiswakesho on Oct 3, 2012 8:25:08 GMT 3
If it's scientifically true that aboit 8% of potential voters are still undecided in Kenya then to God be the glory! I don't know of any reason why Uhuru would beat Raila in a runoff, oh wait unless voters go tribal and if so, why do the polls still show a high number of undecided voters? Secondly, the combinations, political tradeoffs n realignments come a runoff, can't be modelled into these pollings and therefore people should not read much into any polls that attempt to gauge the same.
The race will be between TNA and ODM in the 1st round in which case, RAO has an upper hand. The runoff will be decided on the realignments that follow. Politically, I don't see Mudavadi and Ruto rally behind the same candidate for obvious reasons. Knowing very well that whoever they support would likey make it through, will they be willing to wait in line for another 10 years? For political survival and in line with their ambitions, Mudavadi and Ruto will have to go separate ways! Unlock this puzzle to find out who will be our 4th president.
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Post by jakaswanga on Oct 3, 2012 12:00:29 GMT 3
So Kenyans can not conduct and present a fair and scientifically authoritative opinion poll about their own country? Perhaps a chinese expatriate firm will do the job, just as with roads. What makes anybody think then, that the same Kenyans can conduct and count athe votes and present fairly, the result of such an important thing as the presidential general election?
I need a theory of a few good men at the IEBC, where all round everyone and institution is rotten!
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Post by jakaswanga on Oct 3, 2012 12:05:58 GMT 3
I would urge ODM to dissociate herself from rumours of the inciteful strategy 40+ against the rest, cited above, which is code for Kenyans united against another gikuyu president. Just like we condemned ABR, ABG [anybody else but a gikuyu], is equally hateful.
But actually the backlash, or blowback, is even more saleable: anyone else but those boastful and arrogant uncut fishmongers from the West! The Bantu against the Nilotes!
Nobody has a monopoly of exclusion modalities!
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Post by stibin on Oct 3, 2012 14:52:22 GMT 3
we in odm have been spoiling for a good fight with a worthy opponent; and a shift in the body politics from the trivial,personality based (stopping raila) and balkanisation of kenya to an ideological contest that offers the increasingly informed electorate distinct choice/s. Too bad our parties are still far from embracing issue based campaigns. Actually the March 4 event dubbed ‘two-horse race’ might not achieve anything beyond horse races we are familiar with. My view is that the coming election will just be another competition to see which party gets most votes and not which party wins based on its agenda for Kenya. Unless someone educates me, i don’t see any ideological differences in the way leading parties:- ODM, TNA and MMs,s Rutos UDF & URP, practice their affairs. The fact that parties (Karuas, PKs, kiyaipi et al) that have attempted issue-based campaigns can barely scratch beyond 3% mark in public opinion should tell you something. |
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Post by nereah on Oct 3, 2012 20:02:31 GMT 3
Unless someone educates me, i don’t see any ideological differences in the way leading parties:- ODM, TNA and MMs,s Rutos UDF & URP, practice their affairs. The fact that parties (Karuas, PKs, kiyaipi et al) that have attempted issue-based campaigns can barely scratch beyond 3% mark in public opinion should tell you something. , i hear you loud and clear. we are merely scratching on the surface of one of the issue that jukwaa has performed abysmally on, allow me to say so. we were recently discussing this with jaber ;D and two visiting professional colleagues at a retreat in addis ababa and sought to determine if the actual mainstay of kenyan democracy was premised on the whims of career politicians and select reformists or the critical masses. we were strongly of the view that the progressive movement in kenya has been infiltrated,counterfeited and in most times,slowed down by the infractions of certain forces still beholden to the ukoloni mamboleo. one of us was brave enough to interrogate what jukwaa and its top tier of debaters not mentioning famed chattering class have skirted around over the decades as we pontificate on the democratic movement or what to those likes of wafula buke would call the struggle: what really became of the kenyan left. the copy cat democracy that we make of kenyan organised politics has been a demonstration of laziness and gross omission of both the latter day and johny come latelies and the lowly variants of the reformists and crusaders for change. the truth is that in kenya, there has been only one, original and ideologically sound and reformist movement with progressive ideas and which has admittedly suffered fools gladly on occasions and even slowed down but all the same still firmly on course. we may want to mention names but by a casual examination of the kenyan political scene you can tell which of the above formations you have named if we want to call them so, are genuinely so and which among them is the embodiment of the aspirations of kenyans and for which the rest are just counterfeits. the talk in nairobi this evening is that one of the outfits has set aside billions of shillings to 'acquire" and disband the many political parties as it goes overkill in luring,arm-twisting,coercing and even intimidating politicians of perceived value across the spectrum into joining in. i belong to the school of thought that we in odm must be kept on our toes by an ideological formation that runs counter to the people based aspiration that we stand for. the two horse race analogy that agwambo introduced in the kenyan political discourse is all about this. we want an opposite number that ought to gravitate, as it now seems, around ohuru kenyatta; one that can and must give odm a run of its money. and talking of odm,save for the presidential secretariat that has made me nervous and for which something is being done,all seems set. more of this and that later in my seminal conversation thread: siasa moto moto |
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Post by phil on Oct 5, 2012 11:06:56 GMT 3
JUST RELEASED:
95% Kenyans tell Gallup Pollster that they will vote in 2013 polls (not good news for those MPs)
Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta tied 1st place among registered Kenya voters (so much for Synovate doctoring)
ONLY 50% Kenyas have faith in the IEBC as currently costituted (we told you so!)
21% do not have IDs or passports to register as voters (they messed the tender, Muthaura and Wa Mwai)
It's as Gallup have been reading Jukwaa archieves.
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Post by kamalet on Oct 5, 2012 11:19:09 GMT 3
Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta tied 1st place among registered Kenya voters (so much for Synovate doctoring) tied at what percentage.......and link? |
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Post by phil on Oct 5, 2012 11:30:28 GMT 3
Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta tied 1st place among registered Kenya voters (so much for Synovate doctoring) tied at what percentage.......and link? Raila Odinga 28.6%, Uhuru 21.5%, William Ruto 14.5% (wow!) Kalonzo Musyoka 9.9% among eligible voters (including those who are yet to register). Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta statistically tied among registered voters (on current voter register) |
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Post by kamalet on Oct 5, 2012 11:46:27 GMT 3
tied at what percentage.......and link? Raila Odinga 28.6%, Uhuru 21.5%, William Ruto 14.5% (wow!) Kalonzo Musyoka 9.9% among eligible voters (including those who are yet to register). Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta statistically tied among registered voters (on current voter register) thank you....still waiting for the link |
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that either Kamale or MwalimuBig would be the first to challenge the results... I would not waste much breath in analyzing the obvious ;D
