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Post by nowayhaha on Feb 8, 2012 16:52:30 GMT 3
UHURU Kenyatta is continuing to close the gap on Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the opinion polls. Yesterday Ipsos-Synovate released a poll showing that 31 per cent of Kenyans would vote for him in the presidential election, compared to 24 per cent for Uhuru, 10 per cent for Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and 6 per cent for William Ruto. This was a slight fall for Raila from his rating of 32 per cent in December and a slight jump for Uhuru from 22 per cent. The gap between Uhuru and Raila is now just 7 per cent, the lowest it has been since March 2010 when the gap was 32 per cent. In October 2010 the gap between Raila and Uhuru reached a high of 34 per cent but has since steadily declined as Project Uhuru built up his credibility as a presidential candidate. Conversely Raila appears to have suffered from the internal ODM dispute with William Ruto and the loss of support in the Rift Valley. Raila's ratings on the Ipsos-Synovate polls have fallen from a high of 48 per cent in October 2010, to 42 per cent in December 2010, 38 per cent in March 2011, and to 32 per cent in July 2011. In October 2011, Raila improved to briefly 34 per cent before falling again. Uhuru climbed from a negligible 8 per cent in March 2010, to 14 per cent in October 2010, and 18 per cent by March 2011 as he emerged as the main presidential alternative to Raila. He then peaked at 24 per cent in October 2011 before dipping slightly and coming back. “The findings of this recent survey indicate that the ICC has had little impact on the presidential ratings as indicated in the trended analysis,” Ipsos-Synovate boss Maggie Ireri said. On January 23 the ICC confirmed charges of crimes against humanity charges against Uhuru for his role in the post-election violence. Three voters have already moved to court to try and block Uhuru and his co-accused William Ruto from running for president on grounds of integrity. Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Uhuru's co-accused at the ICC, has dropped in the Synovate ratings from 10 per cent last December to 6 per cent. Conversely, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who fell behind Ruto last December has improved from 9 per cent to 10 per cent today. Musyoka is now the third most preferred presidential aspirant after Raila and Uhuru. Martha Karua, Narc Kenya's torch bearer, has stagnated at 4 per cent in the last three polls. Peter Kenneth is at 2 per cent along with Eugene Wamalwa while George Saitoti and Musalia Mudavadi are on 1 per cent. On a positive note, 69 per cent believe the next elections will be violence-free with the highest proppertion being cfrom the Coast (81 per cent) and the lowest from Central (44 per cent) and Rift Valley (52 per cent). Ipsos-Synovate project manager in charge of opinion polling Victor Rateng told the Star that they had polled about whether Uhuru and Ruto should run for presidency despite the ICC's confirmation of charges. “We had factored these questions and in fact we do have the results but in the light of the recent High Court gag order against public discussion of the subject matter we are unable to release them,” Rateng said. A Strategic Research survey last week found that 61 per cent of Kenyans believed that Uhuru and Ruto should be allowed to stand. High Court judge Isaac Lenaola on the same day barred public debate on the eligibility of the two to run for presidency following the filing of a court case on the matter. The Kenya Editors Guild, Media Council of Kenya and Kituo Cha Sheria have however opposed the order. However Ipsos-Synovate did find that 80 per cent of Kenyans supported the decision of Civil Service boss Francis Muthaura and then Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta to resign their posts. Another 62 per cent believed that Uhuru should now resign as Deputy Prime Minister. The Strategic Research poll last week found that 58 per cent believed that Uhuru should be allowed to continue as Deputy Prime Minister. The Strategic Research poll found a larger gap of 16 per cent between Raila and Uhuru, with 37 per cent supporting Raila for president and 21 oer cent Uhuru. The Ipsos-Synovate countrywide survey was conducted between January 27 and February 1 with 1,523 adult respondents. The sample size was distributed across the various provinces according to their population size. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of the poll’s sample size was given as plus or minus 2.5 per cent margin at 95 per cent confidence level. the-star.co.ke/national/national/61303-uhuru-closes-gap-on-raila
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Post by mzee on Feb 8, 2012 17:24:16 GMT 3
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Post by phil on Jun 29, 2012 10:50:33 GMT 3
LATEST INFOTRACK POLL - 29 June 2012
Raila Odinga 35%, Uhuru Kenyatta 17.5% William Ruto 9.9% Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8% Musalia Mudavadi 8.5%
Amongst political parties, the Orange Democratic Movement maintains lead in popularity at 42%
More later....
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Post by kamalet on Jun 29, 2012 10:59:57 GMT 3
The disparities between the polls makes one think that some polls are of Ugandans and others of Martians!
Thankfully the new Polls law will save us from such ridiculous polls as this one of infotrack
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Post by phil on Jun 29, 2012 11:09:28 GMT 3
The disparities between the polls makes one think that some polls are of Ugandans and others of Martians! Thankfully the new Polls law will save us from such ridiculous polls as this one of infotrack What is exactly is your beef Kamale? My view is that Raila Odinga may as well wrap up the presidential election in the first round. It is well within reach and coming from one who is yet to formally launch his campaign; barring a successful assassination plot against Raila Odinga, I can confidently conclude that the swearing in ceremony that was so violently postponed in 2007 is due in a few months time.
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Post by kamalet on Jun 29, 2012 11:13:03 GMT 3
The disparities between the polls makes one think that some polls are of Ugandans and others of Martians! Thankfully the new Polls law will save us from such ridiculous polls as this one of infotrack What is exactly is your beef Kamale? My view is that Raila Odinga may as well wrap up the presidential election in the first round. It is well within reach and coming from one who is yet to formally launch his campaign; barring a successful assassination plot against Raila Odinga, I can confidently conclude that the swearing in ceremony that was so violently postponed in 2007 is due in a few months time. Phil Me beef? Nah! These polls cannot be so different hence my comment!
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Post by b6k on Jun 29, 2012 11:15:37 GMT 3
Interesting development. Note that the Ipsos poll is from jan 27th - Feb 1 so we are still looking at a rather outdated scenario as a lot has happened since then.
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Post by adongo23456 on Jun 29, 2012 11:41:48 GMT 3
Kamale & others,
What I find truly ridiculous is that synovate is announcing polls they conducted in January now, six months later. It makes no sense. Mudavadi had not even announced his candidature yet. That is just pathetic nonsense unless the star is just being cheeky. The only relevant poll here is that of INFOTRACK and it speaks for itself. Raila is head and shoulders above the competition and Mudavadi's move from ODM has made no impact. Things look really bad for the anti-Raila parties. Iko shida.
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Post by topnotch on Jun 29, 2012 11:46:15 GMT 3
Kamale & others, What I find truly ridiculous is that synovate is announcing polls they conducted in January now, six months later. It makes no sense. Mudavadi had not even announced his candidature yet. That is just pathetic nonsense unless the star is just being cheeky. The only relevant poll here is that of INFOTRACK and it speaks for itself. Raila is head and shoulders above the competition and Mudavadi's move from ODM has made no impact. Things look really bad for the anti-Raila parties. Iko shida. Adongo, KamaleIpsos Synovate has not announced any opinion poll results. That article link provided by Nowayhaha is dated February, and the results were released back the. What Phil has provided is the only poll I know has been released this month.
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Post by phil on Jun 29, 2012 12:15:11 GMT 3
Adongo, KamaleIpsos Synovate has not announced any opinion poll results. That article link provided by Nowayhaha is dated February, and the results were released back the. What Phil has provided is the only poll I know has been released this month. That's right! I opted to put the latest results on the most relevant thread which was older, rather than start a new thread altogether. Soon, you will see people trying to compare oranges and mangoes yet we all know figures do not lie more so if they are as persistent as the ones for our top presidential contenders.
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Post by phil on Jul 3, 2012 9:22:27 GMT 3
Raila close favourite in runoff - poll Monday, 02 July 2012 00:02 BY MOSOKU GEOFFREY
Prime Minister Raila Odinga will beat most of his rivals if next year's polls end up in a second round, according to the latest Infotrak survey. However, the gap with his main opponents has narrowed to about five percentage points, making the results a very close call.
Raila will beat his closets rival Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta by 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, while he will clinch 53.9 per cent against Musalia Mudavadi's 46.1 per cent. The PM will score 55.2 per cent to Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka's 44.8 per cent; 55.6 per cent to William Ruto's 44.4; 56.4 per cent to Peter Kenneth's 43.6; 54.3 per cent to Martha Karua's 45.7; and 58.9 per cent to Raphael Tuju's 41.1.
The poll shows that a Kalonzo-Uhuru run off will be too close to call with Uhuru narrowly beating Kalonzo by a one per cent margin at 50.5 per cent to 49.5. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will, however, beat Kalonzo by a wider margin of 55.7 per cent to the VP's 43.3. Uhuru will beat his G7 ally Ruto at 51.6 per cent to 48.4 while Kalonzo will beat Ruto at 52.4 per cent to 47.6.
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Post by kamalet on Jul 3, 2012 9:54:32 GMT 3
Raila close favourite in runoff - poll Monday, 02 July 2012 00:02 BY MOSOKU GEOFFREY
Prime Minister Raila Odinga will beat most of his rivals if next year's polls end up in a second round, according to the latest Infotrak survey. However, the gap with his main opponents has narrowed to about five percentage points, making the results a very close call.
Raila will beat his closets rival Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta by 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, while he will clinch 53.9 per cent against Musalia Mudavadi's 46.1 per cent. The PM will score 55.2 per cent to Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka's 44.8 per cent; 55.6 per cent to William Ruto's 44.4; 56.4 per cent to Peter Kenneth's 43.6; 54.3 per cent to Martha Karua's 45.7; and 58.9 per cent to Raphael Tuju's 41.1.
The poll shows that a Kalonzo-Uhuru run off will be too close to call with Uhuru narrowly beating Kalonzo by a one per cent margin at 50.5 per cent to 49.5. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will, however, beat Kalonzo by a wider margin of 55.7 per cent to the VP's 43.3. Uhuru will beat his G7 ally Ruto at 51.6 per cent to 48.4 while Kalonzo will beat Ruto at 52.4 per cent to 47.6. Phil This is why I suggested that some of these polls are wrong! Now take the fact that Karua is not listed in the top 5 contenders which means that Kenyans give her little or no chance. Then we take this assumption that she actually makes it to the run off and apart from Uhuru, she is the most worthwhile challenge to Raila at 45.7% better than Kalonzo and Ruto and only 0.4% behind Mudavadi.....just how does this add up?
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Post by topnotch on Jul 3, 2012 14:19:40 GMT 3
Raila close favourite in runoff - poll Monday, 02 July 2012 00:02 BY MOSOKU GEOFFREY
Prime Minister Raila Odinga will beat most of his rivals if next year's polls end up in a second round, according to the latest Infotrak survey. However, the gap with his main opponents has narrowed to about five percentage points, making the results a very close call.
Raila will beat his closets rival Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta by 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, while he will clinch 53.9 per cent against Musalia Mudavadi's 46.1 per cent. The PM will score 55.2 per cent to Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka's 44.8 per cent; 55.6 per cent to William Ruto's 44.4; 56.4 per cent to Peter Kenneth's 43.6; 54.3 per cent to Martha Karua's 45.7; and 58.9 per cent to Raphael Tuju's 41.1.
The poll shows that a Kalonzo-Uhuru run off will be too close to call with Uhuru narrowly beating Kalonzo by a one per cent margin at 50.5 per cent to 49.5. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will, however, beat Kalonzo by a wider margin of 55.7 per cent to the VP's 43.3. Uhuru will beat his G7 ally Ruto at 51.6 per cent to 48.4 while Kalonzo will beat Ruto at 52.4 per cent to 47.6. Phil This is why I suggested that some of these polls are wrong! Now take the fact that Karua is not listed in the top 5 contenders which means that Kenyans give her little or no chance. Then we take this assumption that she actually makes it to the run off and apart from Uhuru, she is the most worthwhile challenge to Raila at 45.7% better than Kalonzo and Ruto and only 0.4% behind Mudavadi.....just how does this add up? Kamale,I guess that's why it's called an assumption, ama? Assuming all the rest-apart from Karua and Raila; do not file their nomination papers in time, are barred due to Chapter 6, are involved in another chopper accident , decide not to run for personal reasons... then Raila will beat Karua by that margin.
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Post by kamalet on Jul 3, 2012 15:08:16 GMT 3
Phil This is why I suggested that some of these polls are wrong! Now take the fact that Karua is not listed in the top 5 contenders which means that Kenyans give her little or no chance. Then we take this assumption that she actually makes it to the run off and apart from Uhuru, she is the most worthwhile challenge to Raila at 45.7% better than Kalonzo and Ruto and only 0.4% behind Mudavadi.....just how does this add up? Kamale,I guess that's why it's called an assumption, ama? Assuming all the rest-apart from Karua and Raila; do not file their nomination papers in time, are barred due to Chapter 6, are involved in another chopper accident , decide not to run for personal reasons... then Raila will beat Karua by that margin. NO!!!! This assumption is with respect to a RUN OFF.....so the first round is done and the other losers are out!!!
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Post by topnotch on Jul 3, 2012 18:27:06 GMT 3
Kamale,I guess that's why it's called an assumption, ama? Assuming all the rest-apart from Karua and Raila; do not file their nomination papers in time, are barred due to Chapter 6, are involved in another chopper accident , decide not to run for personal reasons... then Raila will beat Karua by that margin. NO!!!! This assumption is with respect to a RUN OFF.....so the first round is done and the other losers are out!!! And what if several of the G7 lineup behind candidate Karua in first round therefore forcing a runoff between RAO and Karua, thought of that? It doesn't mean that all those polled against RAO will be on the ballot....the pollsters always look at hypothetical permutations without expressly saying so.
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Post by deyiengs on Jul 4, 2012 18:28:20 GMT 3
I'll always ignore the polls however consistent they are. As long as they're done by those Steadman-like companies. I'll always ignore them.
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Post by mank on Jul 4, 2012 18:46:35 GMT 3
UHURU Kenyatta is continuing to close the gap on Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the opinion polls. Yesterday Ipsos-Synovate released a poll showing that 31 per cent of Kenyans would vote for him in the presidential election, ... According to the passage above, for whom did the poll indicate 31% of Kenyans would vote in the presidential election? The writer should go back to school, I think!
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Jul 4, 2012 19:49:24 GMT 3
UHURU Kenyatta is continuing to close the gap on Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the opinion polls. Yesterday Ipsos-Synovate released a poll showing that 31 per cent of Kenyans would vote for him in the presidential election, ... According to the passage above, for whom did the poll indicate 31% of Kenyans would vote in the presidential election? The writer should go back to school, I think! Mank, Martha Karua has described that Ombija or is it Ambitho fellow very well. That she is just another Kenyan trying to earn a living under very difficult ecenomin times. You may therefore want to forgive them for they know not what they are doing, but simply offer services to the highest bidder.
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Post by phil on Jul 27, 2012 16:42:27 GMT 3
I have always told gullible Ruto followers like mwalimumtukutu that anyone can run for president including ICC suspects. But NOT everyone can garner 25% in over half of the 47 counties. That is the elephant in the room that most analyst have failed to grasp. When Raphael Tuju announced his candidature for the presidency, mwalimu was quick to chant "kiboko ya raila imefika". My question then, and my question now, is, can Tuju garner 25% in just 10 counties? Today, Infotrack Harris have released their poll for July 2012. Look at the "mighty" Kalonzo Musyoka, the so called President's designated assistant, a pathetic 25% in just three counties in Kambaland.
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Post by kamalet on Jul 27, 2012 17:18:26 GMT 3
I have always told gullible Ruto followers like mwalimumtukutu that anyone can run for president including ICC suspects. But NOT everyone can garner 25% in over half of the 47 counties. That is the elephant in the room that most analyst have failed to grasp. When Raphael Tuju announced his candidature for the presidency, mwalimu was quick to chant "kiboko ya raila imefika". My question then, and my question now, is, can Tuju garner 25% in just 10 counties? Today, Infotrack Harris have released their poll for July 2012. Look at the "mighty" Kalonzo Musyoka, the so called President's designated assistant, a pathetic 25% in just three counties in Kambaland. This is a fake poll and simply refuses to add up! Raila - June 35.0 - July 36.6 Uhuru - June 17.5 - July 21.9 Kalonzo - June 8.8 - July 9.6 Ruto - June 9.9 - July 9.4 Musalia - June 8.5 - July 8.4 So with the exception of Ruto and Musalia who have dropped a total of 0.6% Raila has gained 1.6, Uhuru a whooping 4.5% and Kalonzo 0.8% . So just where did the 6.9% come from?? Then Kalonzo is alleged to only get 25% of the vote in 3 counties. So is this Machakos, Kitui and Makueni only? Give us a break. The only reason of including counties is to mask the shrinking numbers for Raila now that this Ambitho woman has realised that people are ignoring her polls!
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Post by phil on Jul 27, 2012 17:32:56 GMT 3
This is a fake poll and simply refuses to add up! Raila - June 35.0 - July 36.6 Uhuru - June 17.5 - July 21.9 Kalonzo - June 8.8 - July 9.6 Ruto - June 9.9 - July 9.4 Musalia - June 8.5 - July 8.4 So with the exception of Ruto and Musalia who have dropped a total of 0.6% Raila has gained 1.6, Uhuru a whooping 4.5% and Kalonzo 0.8% . So just where did the 6.9% come from?? Then Kalonzo is alleged to only get 25% of the vote in 3 counties. So is this Machakos, Kitui and Makueni only? Give us a break. The only reason of including counties is to mask the shrinking numbers for Raila now that this Ambitho woman has realised that people are ignoring her polls! Understandably, this is a very bitter pill to swallow for some, but those are the facts. Where is the link to the previous poll? Check this link (pages 7 and 12) for further clarification Bw. Kamale. infotrakresearch.com/downloads/CountyTrak%20Release%20July%202012.pdfAnd yes, Kalonzo is not as popular as we would prefer our vice president to be. And it is not because of Raila, but rather because of those who likened him to a hyena waiting to feed when others are spirited away. Even now, I see Dennis Itumbi who earned a huge mansion along Riverside Drive from Uhuru Kenyatta, peddling allegations on twitter and facebook that Infortrak Harris is owned by Jerry Okungu who he label a Raila supporter. As if he cannot spot his own hypocrisy, Itumbi does not substantiate these allegations. Coming from a man who has swallowed hook, line and sinker the peeling book from Miguna, how I wish he would also be pointing out who the shareholders are at K24 when Miguna makes Capital Talk his favourite bench!? Or better still, who the shareholders of other research firms are who have been publishing more or less the same poll results over the years.
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Post by kamalet on Jul 27, 2012 17:42:21 GMT 3
This is a fake poll and simply refuses to add up! Raila - June 35.0 - July 36.6 Uhuru - June 17.5 - July 21.9 Kalonzo - June 8.8 - July 9.6 Ruto - June 9.9 - July 9.4 Musalia - June 8.5 - July 8.4 So with the exception of Ruto and Musalia who have dropped a total of 0.6% Raila has gained 1.6, Uhuru a whooping 4.5% and Kalonzo 0.8% . So just where did the 6.9% come from?? Then Kalonzo is alleged to only get 25% of the vote in 3 counties. So is this Machakos, Kitui and Makueni only? Give us a break. The only reason of including counties is to mask the shrinking numbers for Raila now that this Ambitho woman has realised that people are ignoring her polls! Understandably, this is a very bitter pill to swallow for some, but those are the facts. Where is the link to the previous poll? Check this link (pages 7 and 12) for further clarification Bw. Kamale. infotrakresearch.com/downloads/CountyTrak%20Release%20July%202012.pdfAnd yes, Kalonzo is not as popular as we would prefer our vice president to be. And it is not because of Raila, but rather because of those who likened him to a hyena waiting to feed when others are spirited away. Even now, I see Dennis Itumbi who earned a huge mansion along Riverside Drive from Uhuru Kenyatta, peddling allegations on twitter and facebook that Infortrak Harris is owned by Jerry Okungu who he label a Raila supporter. As if he cannot spot his own hypocrisy, Itumbi does not substantiate these allegations. Coming from a man who has swallowed hook, line and sinker the peeling book from Miguna, how I wish he would also be pointing out who the shareholders are at K24 when Miguna makes Capital Talk his favourite bench!? Or better still, who the shareholders of other research firms are who have been publishing more or less the same poll results over the years. Phil you were the source of the information LATEST INFOTRACK POLL - 29 June 2012Raila Odinga 35%, Uhuru Kenyatta 17.5% William Ruto 9.9% Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8% Musalia Mudavadi 8.5%
Amongst political parties, the Orange Democratic Movement maintains lead in popularity at 42% More later....
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Post by phil on Jul 27, 2012 17:57:18 GMT 3
@ Kamale,
At quick glance, the differences in the two polls are glaring:
In May 2012 during a space of two days, Infotrak interviewed sample of 2400 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya.
In June 2012 during a space of eight days, Infotrak interviewed a sample of 11,616 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,533,700 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 1 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all the 47 counties of Kenya all of the 290 proposed constituencies.
Check the link above.
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Post by kamalet on Jul 27, 2012 18:14:58 GMT 3
@ Kamale, At quick glance, the differences in the two polls are glaring: In May 2012 during a space of two days, Infotrak interviewed sample of 2400 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya. In June 2012 during a space of eight days, Infotrak interviewed a sample of 11,616 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,533,700 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 1 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all the 47 counties of Kenya all of the 290 proposed constituencies.Check the link above. ..so what is new? is it the sample or the duration and which of these make the poll a lot more accurate?
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Post by phil on Jul 27, 2012 18:26:57 GMT 3
@ Kamale, At quick glance, the differences in the two polls are glaring: In May 2012 during a space of two days, Infotrak interviewed sample of 2400 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya. In June 2012 during a space of eight days, Infotrak interviewed a sample of 11,616 respondents to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,533,700 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 1 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all the 47 counties of Kenya all of the 290 proposed constituencies.Check the link above. ..so what is new? is it the sample or the duration and which of these make the poll a lot more accurate? What is new? You ask this which means you want me to copy paste the link here on Jukwaa. Kamale, this poll is not just limited to five presidential candidates that dominate your arithmetric. There are 11 candidates appearing on the poll questionnaire. Besides, there are also "undecided voters" plus presidential candidates lumped together as "others" (read kina Bufwoli, Kamenchu, etc). There is great variation in the numbers for these candidates too.
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