|
Post by mugabe on Nov 9, 2012 18:54:43 GMT 3
kamale you are too obsessed with 'raira' chill out
|
|
|
Post by Omwenga on Nov 9, 2012 19:06:39 GMT 3
How Raisiwakesho was right. Even before the ink on his pen dried up, the usual suspects were up in arms against infotrak. Infact the tune has now changed from infortrak working for Raila to cast Uhuruto in bad light to the pollster is working for Ruto to trick Raila. Omwenga, I think this is what you are talking about How Raisiwakesho was right. Even before the ink on his pen dried up, the usual suspects were up in arms against infotrak. Infact the tune has now changed from infortrak working for Raila to cast Uhuruto in bad light to the pollster is working for Ruto to trick Raila. Omwenga, I think this is what you are talking about Morrison predicts landslide for Romney Dick Morrison eats his words - accepts he was wrong. Just weird, just crazy ;D ;D ;D Exactly Mzee; notice the fake smile as they have egg on their faces. Carl Rove, the so-called political "genius" who guided George W as they dug the country to the ground even had the audacity to challenge on air the very Right Wing Fox News Channel he works for as one of their talking heads when the station called Ohio for Obama; an embarrassment you could clearly see even he more less said, "oh oh; what the F have I done here!" Anyway, one cannot but enjoy as they suffer the loss. In consideration of the likely intense suffering and depression of our brothers and sisters who hate or otherwise don't support Raila when he is sworn as our next president, I pledge not to be gleeful nor joyous in witnessing their suffering and depression.
|
|
|
Post by joblesscorner on Nov 9, 2012 20:19:10 GMT 3
OmwengaHere is a good read of how President Barack won the election, he (his campaign team) hired someone to analysis data in Chicago by the name of Rayid Ghani, with a department five times as large as that of the 2008 operation. www.cnn.com/2012/11/07/tech/web/obama-campaign-tech-team/index.htmlOn Karl Rove,He should have been in Jail since Dick Cheney scandal
|
|
|
Post by raiswakesho on Nov 9, 2012 22:38:38 GMT 3
Omwenga,
Carl Rove has a lot of explanation to do, the billionaires want answers and he ain't got any. How do you explain a return of 1.07 % on $107 million investment channelled to his Super PAC? Did I hear him blame Obama for voter suppression like we didn't see what was happening in Florida and Ohio? The Money men better watch out!!
As for Dick Morris, he said it all after the elections, " I predicted Romney would win with a landslide instead I'm burried in a mudslide". I couldn't have said it better.
Some folks need a 3 credit course in research analysis before they can discredit Ambitho's work. We can all agree that we need total professionalism in this field and it does us more good to debate the best ways to achieve the same instead of ranting garbage.
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Nov 10, 2012 8:50:34 GMT 3
How Raisiwakesho was right. Even before the ink on his pen dried up, the usual suspects were up in arms against infotrak. Infact the tune has now changed from infortrak working for Raila to cast Uhuruto in bad light to the pollster is working for Ruto to trick Raila. Omwenga, I think this is what you are talking about How Raisiwakesho was right. Even before the ink on his pen dried up, the usual suspects were up in arms against infotrak. Infact the tune has now changed from infortrak working for Raila to cast Uhuruto in bad light to the pollster is working for Ruto to trick Raila. Omwenga, I think this is what you are talking about Morrison predicts landslide for Romney Dick Morrison eats his words - accepts he was wrong. Just weird, just crazy ....that same Dick Morris who advised ODM and Raila last time? Now you see the price of mistakes? With two wrong predictions and backing of the wrong horse, one can only hope that Raila will not chose the character again!
|
|
|
Post by phil on Nov 11, 2012 12:51:53 GMT 3
JUST IN: INFOTRAK released poll findings on Presidential running mates and run-off scenarios, coalitions and IEBC Preparedness this morning. The big news is that Raila Odinga would beat Uhuru Kenyatta in a run off with a 4% gap, And again Raila Odinga would beat Mudavadi 7%. Mudavadi on the other hand would beat Kenyatta 5.4% in a runoff. Ruto is the most preferred running mate for all candidates, highest support among Uhuru's supporters at 57%, and Raila's at 32%. And the ODM running mate is not even known YET! Mambo bado! kamalet, @malimumtukutu where at though?
|
|
|
Post by nereah on Nov 11, 2012 14:46:32 GMT 3
cant help but notice the fawning resentment in ohuru's campo as trumpeted by the latest issue of its mouthpiece, people newspaper.
|
|
|
Post by phil on Nov 11, 2012 15:54:10 GMT 3
Here's the link to the full report on run-of scenarios. www.infotrakresearch.com/downloads/race%20to%20statehouse.pdfLast year I revealed to mwalimumkuu about a certain NSIS poll that had basically brought the same result as this one. Whichever candidate and pairings their tried, all were beaten hands down by Raila ODM. In fact, the late Michuki, upon reading this NSIS report, toyed with the idea of mobilisng support to change the constitution to allow Kibaki to run for a third term. Unfortunately, a Kibaki candidacy against Raila in 2012 projected an even wider loss than it was in 2007. And I agree with nereah about the ODM going it alone. The ODM only needs to restructure its constitution (done), re-write its manifesto (on-going), elect a worthy candidate and running mate and finally conduct a free a fair nomination nationally (systems in place) and they may even surprise themselves with a 1st round win. Habari ndo hiyo.
|
|
|
Post by mwalimumkuu on Nov 11, 2012 17:56:04 GMT 3
Phil, I told you long time ago, Ambitho is just a sister trying very hard to help a brother. As we speak, ODM's wells are dry, they cant even attract a Kalonzo for a running mate, but they still want the world to believe they are ahead. They can only cheat the gullible, fortunately, there is a shortage of such fellows in Kenya if Ruto's assessment is anything to go by.
|
|
bob
Full Member
Posts: 238
|
Post by bob on Nov 11, 2012 18:57:16 GMT 3
Some of us(without mentioning names) are too obsessed with RAO that it has become boring and stale.
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Nov 11, 2012 19:53:31 GMT 3
Some of us(without mentioning names) are too obsessed with RAO that it has become boring and stale. ...now which obsession with RAO are you bored with...the positive or negative spin or virtually any mention of RAO?
|
|
|
Post by kamalet on Nov 11, 2012 19:58:35 GMT 3
JUST IN: INFOTRAK released poll findings on Presidential running mates and run-off scenarios, coalitions and IEBC Preparedness this morning. The big news is that Raila Odinga would beat Uhuru Kenyatta in a run off with a 4% gap, And again Raila Odinga would beat Mudavadi 7%. Mudavadi on the other hand would beat Kenyatta 5.4% in a runoff. Ruto is the most preferred running mate for all candidates, highest support among Uhuru's supporters at 57%, and Raila's at 32%. And the ODM running mate is not even known YET! Mambo bado! kamalet, @malimumtukutu where at though? Phil When it comes to a run off, you have to give us who bends over for Raila and also for Uhuru to give the numbers that you are suggesting. Anyone with a brain knows that if there is a run off the candidates with significant numbers will recommend to their supporters who to vote for in the run off. Did Ambitho tell us who would be backing who in the event of an Uhuru/Raila run-off? The other thing that brings the poll to serious doubt is that it has completely ignored the current talk on coalitions and the impact to the eventual vote! As I said, I have this feeling that Ambitho is no longer working for Raila but for the likes of Ruto and Uhuru to give Raila the false hope that he can hack it!
|
|
|
Post by abdulmote on Nov 11, 2012 21:25:16 GMT 3
Personaly speaking, I don't think the picture as to how the voters are going to behave come election time is clear just yet. What we see now is likely going to change drastically when the day nears through various 'unforseeable' factors. Essentially I am watching how this pouring of 'picha za baba' is going to pan out. At the moment, the so called leaders are getting their pay packs and promises for more towards supporting their candidature. In my opinion and considering how greedy and selfish kenyans are, a big chunk of those 'pictures' are going to end up paying the leaders' debts, loans and perhaps even some 'entertainment' allowances before they start budgeting for their 'electorates'. Once past the nominations and formal registration of the candidates, the same will then be expecting some more bundles of those 'pictures', following their 'observations' that they need to dish out 'even more' to the electorates, of course not having dished out any money so far as expected by the 'Boss' in the first instance distribution (currently still going on). That hurdle aside, the actual electorates will be expecting their slice of the cake, having known all along that those fellows having been paid millions to share with them by the Boss, but which nothing may have trcikled down so far. At that point things will become elephant and the 'H'angry voters will have to decide which way to vote considering the status of their own pockets! But again it will also depend on how far Raila would have managed to sway the electorates thinking come the 4th of March despite his heavy 'dependance' on his few greedy 'kingpins' at play. Time will soon tell. Here is an example of things to come: One of the governor aspirants from Western Kenya held a fund raising dinner at a hotel on Wednesday night to try and recoup some of the millions of shillings he lost to some few conmen and political brokers who were running his campaign. The aspirant's campaign kitty received quite a boost when he managed to raise Sh20 million during the dinner. Two of the leading contenders for the presidential seat donated Sh1 million each to the kitty while his friends and former colleagues in the government raised Sh4 million. It seems cash is not only his problem, the aspirant is a closet supporter of Uhuru Kenyatta's TNA and is afraid that if this becomes public, he will lose whatever chance he has to become governor!www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-94956/corridors-power
|
|
|
Post by abdulmote on Nov 12, 2012 0:47:44 GMT 3
Mungatana now joined the list of new beneficiaries. At least he will be able to settle some of his debts and clear his pending cases, if he is honest enough to spend the rescue pack appropriately. www.standardmedia.co.ke/ktn/index.php?videoID=2000061445&video_title=mungatana-ajiunga-na-tnaI wonder what is the going rate for these fellows. Does anyone have any clue? I would imagine at least ten million for MPs and 'governors', plus 1.5 million for councillors in phase one. And then similar amount in phase two for the final run. But this is a pure assumption here. Kamale, can you help?
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Nov 12, 2012 16:52:44 GMT 3
Let me pour some cold water on Phil before he has an uncomely accident in his boxers. ALL polls have a sampling margin of error, usually + or - 4% or thereabouts. Given many of these scenarios show a 4% "victory" in essence they are showing nothing. The gaps are such that they can mostly be written off as statistical ties.
Let us wait for the more balanced (& accurate) Synnovate polls....
|
|
|
Post by topnotch on Nov 12, 2012 18:27:50 GMT 3
Let me pour some cold water on Phil before he has an uncomely accident in his boxers. ALL polls have a sampling margin of error, usually + or - 4% or thereabouts. Given many of these scenarios show a 4% "victory" in essence they are showing nothing. The gaps are such that they can mostly be written off as statistical ties. Let us wait for the more balanced (& accurate) Synnovate polls.... b6k Could it also mean Raila is 8 percentage points clear of his nearest challenger?
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Nov 12, 2012 18:55:57 GMT 3
;D
Touche! I see they don't call you Topnotch for nothing....
|
|
|
Post by phil on Nov 20, 2012 11:27:27 GMT 3
JUST RELEASED: Ipsos Synovate Kenya
Presidential Candidates Popularity Raila 33%, Uhuru 26%, Ruto 9%, Musyoka 8%, Mudavadi 4%, Kenneth 3%, Karua 2%
Undecided voter rose from 9% in september polls to 11% to current november poll
Political Parties popularity: 32% ODM 22% TNA 10% URP 6% WDM
92% said the have an identity card, 91% say they intend to vote
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Nov 20, 2012 12:07:09 GMT 3
As always Phil puts his best foot forward & reports only the part of the story that suits his world view. How about the bad news that in case of a runoff, which looks not only unavoidable but inevitable, Uhuru Kenyatta is the sole unbeatable candidate? Agwambo needs to win this in one round or it's curtains for him....
|
|
|
Post by phil on Nov 20, 2012 12:33:38 GMT 3
As always Phil puts his best foot forward & reports only the part of the story that suits his world view. How about the bad news that in case of a runoff, which looks not only unavoidable but inevitable, Uhuru Kenyatta is the sole unbeatable candidate? Agwambo needs to win this in one round or it's curtains for him.... There's a lot more that has been announced in todays poll, and yes I did not publish everything. Why dont you "report the entire story" and keep the discussion going instead of dwelling on what Phil has posted or not posted, or bringing Raila into every other thread?
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Nov 20, 2012 12:50:38 GMT 3
Phil, your accusation of my bringing Raila into this thread is peculiar to say the least. Look at the subject of the thread: so & so closes the gap on Raila. Look at your post from Ipsos today: Raila leads the pack with 33%. All I did was point out that you decided to dwell on the section that shows an Agwambo lead whereas I shared the fact that, using Ipsos' own data, the lead may not translate into a win given the looming inevitability of a runoff. In short what you left unsaid is what Raila needs to address or face "early" retirement. The entire thread is about Raila's waning poll figures so let's not try to throw around the usual "Raila this, Raila that" nonsense.
|
|
|
Post by phil on Nov 20, 2012 13:19:16 GMT 3
Phil, your accusation of my bringing Raila into this thread is peculiar to say the least. Look at the subject of the thread: so & so closes the gap on Raila. Look at your post from Ipsos today: Raila leads the pack with 33%. All I did was point out that you decided to dwell on the section that shows an Agwambo lead whereas I shared the fact that, using Ipsos' own data, the lead may not translate into a win given the looming inevitability of a runoff. In short what you left unsaid is what Raila needs to address or face "early" retirement. The entire thread is about Raila's waning poll figures so let's not try to throw around the usual "Raila this, Raila that" nonsense. You do your own analysis. No one is stopping you from that. I only take exception at you accusing me of omitting some aspects of the poll report when you have the freedom to post them yourself. I will do my own analysis and draw my own conclusions. I believe the candidates themselves will also engage their own strategy. Both Raila and Uhuru have lost 3% and 4% respectively from the last poll so the dwindling numbers could be right for both of them. Mudavadi also lost 3% from September. But then, undecided voters have also increased and their votes could go anywhere. Ipsoss also came up with a peculiar poll question saying only 11% of Kenyans will be unhappy if Raila is president, while the same poll says 33% are ready to have him as president. I dont understand why I would vote for a president who will make me unhappy. In the same report, we are told 41% of those polled do not want Ruto and Uhuru in the ballot paper because of the Hague cases, yet the two ICC indictees still poll 2nd and 3rd most popular!? So, yes, b6k, you are free to make your own personal conclusions.
|
|
|
Post by b6k on Nov 20, 2012 13:28:37 GMT 3
Now you're talking Phil. Indeed I just saw Tom Wolf give a disclaimer that the polls only reflect each presidential candidate's popularity as of November, sans running mate. That's a critical distinction since Uhuru's "known" running mate, Ruto, rose 3% in this latest poll may give him a bump. Raila's running mate still being an unknown means his choice could make or break him.
|
|
|
Post by Daktari wa makazi on Nov 20, 2012 13:34:25 GMT 3
Raila will do well if he sticks with democracy and let his nomination and deputy's be by ballot box. Selection does not appease people - many want elections for nominated positions. Time will tell - but I am not told my breadth!
|
|
|
Post by raiswakesho on Nov 20, 2012 16:21:39 GMT 3
I've said it here before and I have no problem mentioning it again. The opinion polls models can't capture all the variables that will shape a runoff election. Rao and Uhuru are still the main candidates as we've always known, I won't be readin anythin beyond their individual popularity.
|
|