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Post by nowayhaha on Mar 5, 2013 12:20:12 GMT 3
Sister Malkia,There is no difference between a spoilt and rejected vote! NONE counts!! I know neither counts. However, the legal distinction is extremely important. Most immediately, do either rejected or spoiled votes count in the calculation of the 50% + 1, also in the event of recounts the standard for spoiled votes is clear intention of the voter (think Florida 2000). It may help if I clarified that at this juncture I am more interested in the legalities and not the political ramifications, if any, of the distinction. Based on clarifications from IEBC press conference the rejected votes count in the calculation of the 50% +1 votes which will determine an outright winner or a run off. He insisted this is what the law entails |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 12:27:01 GMT 3
I know neither counts. However, the legal distinction is extremely important. Most immediately, do either rejected or spoiled votes count in the calculation of the 50% + 1, also in the event of recounts the standard for spoiled votes is clear intention of the voter (think Florida 2000). It may help if I clarified that at this juncture I am more interested in the legalities and not the political ramifications, if any, of the distinction. Based on clarifications from IEBC press conference the rejected votes count in the calculation of the 50% +1 votes which will determine an outright winner or a run off. He insisted this is what the law entails , that means the figures the IEBC are posting on the screen at Bomas are off somewhat. UK will be at 51% while Raila drops to 38% of votes cast (& counted) including the rejected ones.... |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 12:40:09 GMT 3
Kamale, Podp got it but you are jumping the gun. The drinking is still hours away. I was advising that you get the champagne chilled so that later you may enjoy it at the right temperature if things stay the way they have been since last night. With the 4,000,000 votes counted mark now past, UK still maintains a convincing (NB not unasailable lead) at 54.63% to Raila's 40.87%. Back to monitoring the tally.... now-a-days with deep freezer one does not need to chill any wine for above 30 minutes, otherwise the bottle breaks. so you just tell us when to start ululating and voila we shall put the bottles in the deep freeze count 5 ngemis and by the time all of them are over (30 minutes) we can start the party. initially it will be in house before cascading to the streets. and everything will be peaceful knowing that WM's judges are working 24/7 so no need to bring mbriiiichaa Speaking about the streets & judges working 24/7, this may be a good time for CORD to begin planning how it will make KE ungovernable. Not by taking their protests to the streets, but by using Mutunga's courts, the ICC, & any other process that can make it as difficult as possible for Uhuruto to even attempt to govern the country. This time around, mass court action MAY lead to an impeachment if well planned.... |
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Post by nowayhaha on Mar 5, 2013 12:47:13 GMT 3
Based on clarifications from IEBC press conference the rejected votes count in the calculation of the 50% +1 votes which will determine an outright winner or a run off. He insisted this is what the law entails , that means the figures the IEBC are posting on the screen at Bomas are off somewhat. UK will be at 51% while Raila drops to 38% of votes cast (& counted) including the rejected ones.... B6k, You are correct nowonder Kamale was saying its early days.....from calculations of what is being relayed the rejected votes amount to 6.3 % |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 12:51:54 GMT 3
Nowayhaha, that means the figures the IEBC are posting on the screen at Bomas are off somewhat. UK will be at 51% while Raila drops to 38% of votes cast (& counted) including the rejected ones.... B6k, You are correct nowonder Kamale was saying its early days.....from calculations of what is being relayed the rejected votes amount to 6.3 % , if all things remain constant as they have for most of the counting process (we are now at 38% votes cast counted) UK is still sitting pretty. A lot closer to the fence but still over the 50% + 1 mark. Raila way down at 38% needs to push for a runoff or he is sunk. Personally I think Hassan got it wrong in his last press conference. A talking head on NTV had said earlier that IEBC uses the format of only counting VALID VOTES CAST as opposed to the ALL VOTES CAST (if rejected votes are to count as the Chair just said). Their own figures on projector at Bomas belie what the Chair is saying since the calculation of percentages is based on valid votes. We need some clarification on this but the high number of rejected votes will come back to bite the IEBC. With the rejected votes being so high & the potential of an Uhuruto presidency still looming on the horizon, I can forecast one thing for KE in the days, weeks & months to come: Litigation, litigation & more litigation.... |
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Post by kamalet on Mar 5, 2013 12:59:00 GMT 3
B6k/Nowayhaha
This misstatement my Issack is causing quite some confusion.
Some help from the constitution:
(4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives—
(a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and
(b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.
Votes must first be cast, then counted to arrive at the number where they are more than half of all votes cast in that election. Spoilt (or rejected)votes are not counted as they cannot be assigned any specific candidate.
So if 10,561,612 votes are cast and counted, the winner shall be the one with 5,280,807 votes which are more than half of the 10,561,612 votes.
I hope this is helpful!
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Post by Omwenga on Mar 5, 2013 13:03:18 GMT 3
now-a-days with deep freezer one does not need to chill any wine for above 30 minutes, otherwise the bottle breaks. so you just tell us when to start ululating and voila we shall put the bottles in the deep freeze count 5 ngemis and by the time all of them are over (30 minutes) we can start the party. initially it will be in house before cascading to the streets. and everything will be peaceful knowing that WM's judges are working 24/7 so no need to bring mbriiiichaa Speaking about the streets & judges working 24/7, this may be a good time for CORD to begin planning how it will make KE ungovernable. Not by taking their protests to the streets, but by using Mutunga's courts, the ICC, & any other process that can make it as difficult as possible for Uhuruto to even attempt to govern the country. This time around, mass court action MAY lead to an impeachment if well planned.... b6k, It would be prudent to await the official announcement of the results by IEBC. I would remind everyone what Raila said at Nyayo Stadium on Saturday and that's he and Cord will accept results that reflect the voting and will of the people who showed up to vote. In the event Raila and Cord become aware or know of anything other than that, he has assured Kenyans he would pursue legal remedy--something he and ODM could not do in 2008 as we had no legal system to speak of that would have provided the remedy. This time around it's different, even as the judiciary is undergoing reforms. It's tempting and almost impossible to resist the urge to postulate or reach conclusions based on the provisional results that are being announced but the better thing to so, is simply for everyone to sit tight and await the verdict. I am fairly certain Raila and Cord have various contingencies in place depending on what that verdict is consistent with Raila's message as restated above. |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 13:04:32 GMT 3
B6k/NowayhahaThis misstatement my Issack is causing quite some confusion. Some help from the constitution: (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives— (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. Votes must first be cast, then counted to arrive at the number where they are more than half of all votes cast in that election. Spoilt (or rejected)votes are not counted as they cannot be assigned any specific candidate. So if 10,561,612 votes are cast and counted, the winner shall be the one with 5,280,807 votes which are more than half of the 10,561,612 votes. I hope this is helpful! indeed it is helpful. That Hassan misspoke can be proven by how the IEBC's own tally is being calculated & updated live for the world to see. They are considering only valid votes. Just do the math..... |
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emali
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Post by emali on Mar 5, 2013 13:08:23 GMT 3
Based on clarifications from IEBC press conference the rejected votes count in the calculation of the 50% +1 votes which will determine an outright winner or a run off. He insisted this is what the law entails , that means the figures the IEBC are posting on the screen at Bomas are off somewhat. UK will be at 51% while Raila drops to 38% of votes cast (& counted) including the rejected ones.... Is there a website that breaks down the total votes counted by constituency & what %? that would help because right now it looks like Jubilee may garner anywhere from 52-56% but we cant be sure at all... Anyway I hope this thing is over by a significant majority prefferably above 54% I don't want all this court cases and god forbid a second round...I've had enough of this stuff... It was quite telling last night when Ruto came out (bendera nyuma yake) practising his victory speach with 10% of the vote counted...sounding & looking very presidential ;D...that was hilarious...just get this thing done. |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 13:09:31 GMT 3
Speaking about the streets & judges working 24/7, this may be a good time for CORD to begin planning how it will make KE ungovernable. Not by taking their protests to the streets, but by using Mutunga's courts, the ICC, & any other process that can make it as difficult as possible for Uhuruto to even attempt to govern the country. This time around, mass court action MAY lead to an impeachment if well planned.... b6k, It would be prudent to await the official announcement of the results by IEBC. I would remind everyone what Raila said at Nyayo Stadium on Saturday and that's he and Cord will accept results that reflect the voting and will of the people who showed up to vote. In the event Raila and Cord become aware or know of anything other than that, he has assured Kenyans he would pursue legal remedy--something he and ODM could not do in 2008 as we had no legal system to speak of that would have provided the remedy. This time around it's different, even as the judiciary is undergoing reforms. It's tempting and almost impossible to resist the urge to postulate or reach conclusions based on the provisional results that are being announced but the better thing to so, is simply for everyone to sit tight and await the verdict. I am fairly certain Raila and Cord have various contingencies in place depending on what that verdict is consistent with Raila's message as restated above. , I hear what you say. My imprudence is based purely on the key assumptions that (a) all things remain constant (aka the trend has held steady since before midnight last night up to now), & (b) according to the law Hassan & his team may sit on that final result for another 6 days. It is in that light that I am looking ahead ;D |
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Post by nowayhaha on Mar 5, 2013 13:12:42 GMT 3
B6k/NowayhahaThis misstatement my Issack is causing quite some confusion. Some help from the constitution: (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives— (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. Votes must first be cast, then counted to arrive at the number where they are more than half of all votes cast in that election. Spoilt (or rejected)votes are not counted as they cannot be assigned any specific candidate. So if 10,561,612 votes are cast and counted, the winner shall be the one with 5,280,807 votes which are more than half of the 10,561,612 votes. I hope this is helpful! Kamale, Hope he will come out again and clarify once and for all to avoid creating room for misconception, mind you this question was asked twice and the second time by Lenard Mambo Mbotela in swahili and he reiterated the same thing as he did the first time only in swahili this time around -what came out is that once a vote has been CAST it will count in the final tallying of 50 +1 and by being termed as a rejected vote it has been counted already. |
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Post by b6k on Mar 5, 2013 13:26:48 GMT 3
Nowayhaha, that means the figures the IEBC are posting on the screen at Bomas are off somewhat. UK will be at 51% while Raila drops to 38% of votes cast (& counted) including the rejected ones.... Is there a website that breaks down the total votes counted by constituency & what %? that would help because right now it looks like Jubilee may garner anywhere from 52-56% but we cant be sure at all... Anyway I hope this thing is over by a significant majority prefferably above 54% I don't want all this court cases and god forbid a second round...I've had enough of this stuff... It was quite telling last night when Ruto came out (bendera nyuma yake) practising his victory speach with 10% of the vote counted...sounding & looking very presidential ;D...that was hilarious...just get this thing done. I am totally with you on election fatigue. It would be great if we don't have to go through this whole process again in a month's time. Try this site: vote.iebc.or.ke/Ruto was being a typical African politician. So long as things are going your way then democracy has won. If not, off to the streets  |
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emali
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Post by emali on Mar 5, 2013 13:32:04 GMT 3
B6k/NowayhahaThis misstatement my Issack is causing quite some confusion. Some help from the constitution: (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives— (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. Votes must first be cast, then counted to arrive at the number where they are more than half of all votes cast in that election. Spoilt (or rejected)votes are not counted as they cannot be assigned any specific candidate. So if 10,561,612 votes are cast and counted, the winner shall be the one with 5,280,807 votes which are more than half of the 10,561,612 votes. I hope this is helpful! I think the key words here are CAST VOTES not cast and counted...that explains why Hassan is insisting on the 'spoilt votes' being part of the tally...I would hope the man knows what he is saying... |
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emali
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Post by emali on Mar 5, 2013 13:43:14 GMT 3
Is there a website that breaks down the total votes counted by constituency & what %? that would help because right now it looks like Jubilee may garner anywhere from 52-56% but we cant be sure at all... Anyway I hope this thing is over by a significant majority prefferably above 54% I don't want all this court cases and god forbid a second round...I've had enough of this stuff... It was quite telling last night when Ruto came out (bendera nyuma yake) practising his victory speach with 10% of the vote counted...sounding & looking very presidential ;D...that was hilarious...just get this thing done. I am totally with you on election fatigue. It would be great if we don't have to go through this whole process again in a month's time. Try this site: vote.iebc.or.ke/Ruto was being a typical African politician. So long as things are going your way then democracy has won. If not, off to the streets @ B6k Thanks... This electoral fatigue is too much & more importantly lets say Jubillee ends up with 50%, Amani stays at 3% & CORD at 43% what is the point of a runoff? nothing will change best scenario for CORD they end up with 46% this time the spoilt votes wont mean anything...a waste of money & a waste of time....this election was already a runoff! |
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Post by kamalet on Mar 5, 2013 14:40:18 GMT 3
B6k/NowayhahaThis misstatement my Issack is causing quite some confusion. Some help from the constitution: (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives— (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. Votes must first be cast, then counted to arrive at the number where they are more than half of all votes cast in that election. Spoilt (or rejected)votes are not counted as they cannot be assigned any specific candidate. So if 10,561,612 votes are cast and counted, the winner shall be the one with 5,280,807 votes which are more than half of the 10,561,612 votes. I hope this is helpful! I think the key words here are CAST VOTES not cast and counted...that explains why Hassan is insisting on the 'spoilt votes' being part of the tally...I would hope the man knows what he is saying... Emali For a vote to count, it surely must be allocated to someone. Now who would you allocate the vote to in the event it is rejected? It infact disenfranchises the person with fewer votes as opposed to increase the margin of the winner! I think it is wrong to hang on to a statement made in error by the chairman of IEBC and he did refer to the counted votes as the ones used to validate a winner! |
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Post by wafwaf1 on Mar 5, 2013 14:42:19 GMT 3
Did KTN accidentally show RAO with 7m votes against UK's 5M some few hours ago? They later apologised for the error. Question is, do some errors have a basis?
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Post by patriotism101 on Mar 5, 2013 15:02:45 GMT 3
This just arrived in my inbox FORA statement on the ongoing IEBC presidential vote tallying 1.The Friends of Raila (FORA) Secretariat thanks Kenyans for coming out in large numbers and conducting ourselves in a patriotic and orderly manner during the historic voting exercise yesterday, March 4, 2013. 2.We want to bring to your attention that we have our presidential tallying centre. We are receiving results from our Agents across the country as they are announced at the polling centers. The numbers we have look very good and we urge our supporters not to buy into the scare on TV screens. We have not released our in-house tallies because the Captain signed the IEBC code-of-conduct and he has urged us to be responsible and to wait on IEBC’s results. We are continuing to monitor IEBC’s provisional results and only making contact for clarification where there are any serious discrepancies with our in-house tallies. We reiterate that so far the numbers that we have are looking very good and our supporters should not be alarmed at all. 3.We remind Kenyans to note that so far IEBC has released only a fraction of the total votes cast across the country. Of importance to note is that the percentages of votes per county released by IEBC so far is not uniform. Different counties have different percentages of votes tallied so far. Statistically therefore, the national average, which is what TV screens are displaying, cannot and should not be used by our competitors or anyone to misinform and mislead the public that someone is cumulatively ahead. We urge our supporters and the public to look at the numbers being screened on TVs in context as well as in relation to statistics paradoxes. As of this morning IEBC had indicated they had provisional results from about 8000 polling centres. Across the country we have over 31000 polling centres. 4.We want our supporters to note that IEBC erred in beginning to release provisional results while voting was still going on in many polling centres. Also the initial provisional results that were released to the public were those from our competitor’s strongholds. We wish to inform the public that at some point immediately thereafter the IEBC system went down, affecting the streaming of live results. In addition, our supporters should note that just a few tallies have been released by IEBC from our strongholds. 5.In closing, we want to say again that our in-house tallying numbers are looking very good and we are poised for a big win! We ask for calmness as IEBC continues to release the results. Always bear in mind that the numbers coming in are not uniform across the counties and therefore the average percentage cannot and should not be used as a national average. The results in so far are provisional. In fullness of time, we are headed for a big win. For any further information please contact the undersigned. Signed: George Nyongesa |CEO, The Friends of Raila | Tel: +254 720 451 235 / 733 827 859 |Email: grnyongesa@yahoo.com Cc: Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka Hon. Anyang Nyong’o Hon. Franklin Bett Dr. Jarunda Mr. Eliud Owallo Mr. Jaoko Oburu How true is this? |
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Post by 50cents on Mar 5, 2013 15:22:46 GMT 3
Did KTN accidentally show RAO with 7m votes against UK's 5M some few hours ago? They later apologised for the error. Question is, do some errors have a basis? Much much earlier in the day they had RAO with 11m |
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Post by cheshirecat on Mar 5, 2013 15:28:54 GMT 3
Did KTN accidentally show RAO with 7m votes against UK's 5M some few hours ago? They later apologised for the error. Question is, do some errors have a basis? Much much earlier in the day they had RAO with 11m Take good note of it. A few weeks later, this ridiculous number will be bandied around as 'proof' that Raila was rigged out. |
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Post by 50cents on Mar 5, 2013 17:22:32 GMT 3
Much much earlier in the day they had RAO with 11m Take good note of it. A few weeks later, this ridiculous number will be bandied around as 'proof' that Raila was rigged out. Relax my friend, even Obama was rigged out in some areas but still came victorious. Raila or UK losing wont be the end of the world. |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Mar 5, 2013 17:56:00 GMT 3
From my Twitter Account:
Gidi O Gidi @gidiogidi
Ndururumo polling station where Mudavadi's running mate,cast his vote gives Mudavadi 0 as presidential vote!! So who did Kioni vote for?
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Post by Mobimba on Mar 5, 2013 18:09:57 GMT 3
From my Twitter Account: Gidi O Gidi @gidiogidiNdururumo polling station where Mudavadi's running mate,cast his vote gives Mudavadi 0 as presidential vote!! So who did Kioni vote for? OO. which means he did not vote for himself either. |
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bob
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Post by bob on Mar 5, 2013 18:12:10 GMT 3
KTN is reporting that Dr. Kidero is the Governor of Nairobi. Can anyone in confirm this please?
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Post by mwalimumkuu on Mar 5, 2013 18:21:34 GMT 3
KTN is reporting that Dr. Kidero is the Governor of Nairobi. Can anyone in confirm this please? It should be that he is ahead and not won. I have noticed some carelessness among KTN anchors that you will not see anywhere else. |
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Post by joblesscorner on Mar 5, 2013 18:22:26 GMT 3
On a light note...
Kibaki now has an excuse to meet with his mpango wa kando "rusay nimenda mkutano wa CDF"
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