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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 0:31:13 GMT 3
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Post by furaha on Oct 23, 2011 1:11:28 GMT 3
Oloo,
I share your fears. I'm still searching my brain for convincing reasons to justify this invasion. I have not found any.
It seems the lessons of the Christmas 2006 invasion by Ethiopia have already been forgotten. The Ethiopians marched towards Mogadishu with amazing speed, deluding many into thinking that the Islamic Courts Union had been beaten into submission. But once in Mogadishu the Ethiopian forces ran into serious trouble because seizing territory is much easier that holding on to it. The Ethiopian supply lines were very long and the Ethiopian leadership did not have a serious and credible plan to achieve political stability. The Somalis saw no peace dividends and they soon united: they had found a new common enemy in Ethiopia, a neighbour they had not trusted from the very start.
The Ethiopians extricated themselves a few years later (2009, I think) but not until after the loss of countless lives on both sides and after a hugh financial cost (probably paid by the US). And meanwhile the Islamic Courts Union had given way to Al Shabaab, making matters far worse.
Is Kenya going to go the same route? Does Kenya have more than a plan A (a military expedition)? Is there a plan B that indicates how territory will be held, how humanitarian assistance will be provided and by whom, how credible local administration structures might be set up, how peace dividends can be extended to the population? I have not seen any evidence of that.
And now IGAD supports the invasion and other nations (Ethiopia) may join the Kenyan invaders. It is clear that Ethiopia wants to come in. In Jubaland the Ogadenni clan is strongly represented and Ethiopia does not want to see them ascend to power.
This is a serious mess. Oloo, I am not yet convinced that, as you suggest, all this is aimed at postponing the Kenyan elections but at this point I do not rule it out either. It could be on the minds of some of the powers that be. Let's watch closely. If this turns into anything more that a short expedition you may have a point.
Furaha
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mbuta
Full Member
Posts: 182
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Post by mbuta on Oct 23, 2011 2:02:49 GMT 3
I understand the need to play devils advocate, indeed such voices are necessary in a big and complicated country like ours. But imagine for a moment that you are the President of Kenya, your political, military and intelligence advisers keep telling you that this al shabab problem is not going to go away, indeed, they are becoming more bold by the day. What do you do? I'll tell you what I would do, I would tell them that we are going after the goons coz I would remember raising my right hand and placing my left on the bible, pledging before God and man, that I would do everything in my power to protect an preserve Kenya. Look,my literal reading of the constitution is that its the highest law in the land, but Kenyan life comes first and the last thing I am gonna be bogged down with is how the politics of the day plays into this...
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bagay
New Member
Posts: 15
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Post by bagay on Oct 23, 2011 3:01:16 GMT 3
Mbuta, Furaha et 'll,
My brethren consider this scenario of you will. Tell tales sign are all-over the place. You got to to throw your net far and wide.
Senario 1.
Your are either with us or.........well, Stupid its value-creating activities.
OR
Senario 2.
Occupition.......Occupition is as close it gets, You walk the walk or you talk the talk.
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Post by kamalet on Oct 23, 2011 9:04:44 GMT 3
Oloo
Reading your digital, I had this same feeling of similar writings by your good self many years ago when you were a lot more prolific. Then as now, you have indulged into a topic you may not be fully seized of apart from articles you have found on the net that become the single element of doubt in your mind and which drives you to write as you have - in a misguided and ignorant way.
You do not even come out any objective when you narrow the military incursion into Somalia as a PNU backed effort as I suspect that you wanted to protect the ODM quislings in cabinet as well as in parliament who have not (unlike you) condemned the war. As you would like to be in the company of CJ Mutunga or PM Raila if we accuse you of being "unpatriotic", I think you place yourself on a higher pedestal than one where you belong - so I will perhaps add the remark about earning stripes! You are not unpatriotic, I think you are very ignorant of what this is all about.
It is fine to take a moralist attitude and on that basis alone coil your tail between your legs and run off simply because the Americans or the Ethiopians were allegedly taught a lesson. If I read you right, Kenya and its people should sit at a corner twiddling its thumb and shaking in fear as the rag tag Al Shabaab continue to rape our economy and reign fear. Seriously, I would not be surprised to find out that you were one of those screaming war to regain that little rock Migingo whose only economic benefit was several thousand shillings of fish a day, but which purely on account of principle many wanted to justify war!
I do not agree that the Kenya government should have continued to sit on its hands as the threat of Al shabaab continued on its door step. I do not believe that the Kenyan military has never considered being involved in guerilla warfare and in a trip up north two years ago, I was pleasantly surprised that the military were actually preparing for exactly that same scenario and the exercise that I bumped into had conventional Kenyan military equipment as well as mock enemies runnign around in Technicals (Toyotal landcruisers loaded with machine guns) - so I am under no illusions that the Kenyan military is equal to the task. In any case, looking at the tactics of the last 6 days, the military plan of aerial attacks followed by ground action is something that seems to pay dividend is not the plan fo a disorganised outfit.
You can go on with your tirade about the incursion being illegal, misguided etc., but one thing is clear, it is necessary and it is the duty of every Kenyan to support the military men and women staking their lives for us.
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 9:30:52 GMT 3
Comment from Elijah Kombo posting in Kenya Online: groups.yahoo.com/group/kenyaonline/message/137074Reply Message #137074 of 137074 < Prev | Next > The Quixotic Invasion of Somalia Will Devastate Kenya A very good expository of the situation in Somalia. I also maintained that attacking Al Shabaab was akin to an attack of Somalia. I was talking with a Somalia friend from Central Somalia, and what you have said below makes a lot of sense in addition to what he told me. See the US has already warned of terror attack on Kenyan soil. The invasion of Al Shabaab is going to threatened deeper our security and expose us to terror attacks. We must be vigilant and report all suspicious people to the security forces. Once these fellows bomb one building in Nairobi, we will loose business, jobs, tourism etc........ Olo has clearly said that both Ministers did not follow the constitution on declaring war. Its not Al Shabaab war but it war against somalia - that is what Saitoti and Haji said. And as well, even if it al Shabaab, do they know the al shabaab - who they are......how will they differentiate these group from another? www.nation.co.ke/News/US+embassy+warns+on+Kenya+attack/-/1056/1259986/-/hw6030/-/index.htmlRegards Kombo Elijah --- On Sat, 10/22/11, oloo_wa_canada <oloo_wa_canada@...> wrote: |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 9:32:58 GMT 3
Comment from Faiza Hassan in KOL: groups.yahoo.com/group/kenyaonline/message/137069Re: [KOL] The Quixotic Invasion of Somalia Will Devastate Kenya Oloo wa Canada This is your personal view and should be respected. You might also find yourself in Kamiti for expRessing your views. On 10/22/11, oloo_wa_canada <oloo_wa_canada@...> wrote: > |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 9:52:01 GMT 3
Kamale:Thank you for your feedback. I do not live in cyberspace. I am not ignorant as you imagine. In order to deal effectively with Al- Shabaab, a comprehensive strategy which is well thought should be in place. For instance, who are the well-connected KENYAN tycoons who help bankroll Al-Shabaab? What is being done about them? You simply had to bring up Migingo and fish didn't you? Why do you have to speculate about Onyango Oloo's views on Migingo? I challenge you to google the net and fish out my views on this subject instead of delving into such TRIBAL lows. Since I do not want to paraphrase my digital essay, I will stop there. Incidentally, I believe we were both members of Mashada when I posted the following essay on the US invasion of Iraq way back in March 2003: www.mashada.com/forums/politics/2659-americans-have-already-lost-war.htmlWhat do you think has been the historical verdict on those views of mine nine years ago? Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 11:03:07 GMT 3
Feedback from my Facebook page:
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Sylvie Garama likes this.
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George B M Mwaniki Lets not overstate the capabalities of AlShabab, these guys have never been challenged . We got to protect our territorial soverienty .It also give Us a thump Up on the likes of Yoweri Kaguta who thinks that Migingo and Ugingo is his cause he has gone through Guirella wars
10 hours ago · LikeUnlike
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Senator-kitui Musili Mbuvi After Somalia, here Museveni we come!
10 hours ago · LikeUnlike
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Odhiambo Mak'Osiemo I am a stickler for details, but of a simple opinion in this. In the final anaylysis, Kenya has got to defend itself, come rain or shine. No way some goons cross over the border, terrorise,kill and kidnap people and we just watch. I will submit that this kind of action should have been done long ago. I dont give a rats behind if we there for another 2 years playing hide and seek with Al Shabab, they got to go..simple as that...
10 hours ago · LikeUnlike · 1 personKamore Nefertiti Nyandiah likes this.
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Lydiah Mathia aiii! kwani who is alshabaab??? If they are human, then they too can bleed and if they can bleed, they can die and if they can die, they can be wiped out!!! Our Millitary is brave enough and willing to pay the price, so should we.
9 hours ago · LikeUnlike
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George B M Mwaniki Kenyans We are simply a pessimist society, there is no one who is ready to say things are going right .We are always pointing out on the wrong doings.
9 hours ago · LikeUnlike
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Moses Njoroge Kamau Go military go!! We should not let fear rule our hearts.
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Yusto Awich In past tense, it already did. Left alone the crises rising from Somalia will, without intervention cripple Kenya anyway. Kenya has been faced with economic and social disruptions that have emanated from the Somalian fiasco. The myriad problems include piracy, terrorism, refugees, gun peddling, real estate (land corruption), hunger, health, education (the first thing they do is bomb education facilities to keep ignorance), money laundering, political buy-ins (corruption), and other economic instabilities. Kenya needs to own Somalia (with the world help) for a long time until it can survive on its own.
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Post by kamalet on Oct 23, 2011 11:45:08 GMT 3
Oloo
I could easly grant you that you are not ignorant, but when you make a statement such as "In order to deal effectively with Al- Shabaab, a comprehensive strategy which is well thought should be in place", it presupposes that a comprehensive strategy does not exist and the Kenyan military are a bumbling lot driven by the spontaneous need to hurl missiles (I could have said stones) at some rag tag militant group. Perhaps you should look at the sequence of events leading to the statement by the security ministers and the rolling of equipment into Somalia. Surely there must have been prior planning!
If you perhaps looked at the responses on your facebook page, it will tell you how far off your argument is from being relevant!
Kamale
PS. My inclusion of Migingo (and fish) was relevant and was not directed at any community, but was actually relevant vis a vis the territorial as well as economic justification for military action!
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Post by furaha on Oct 23, 2011 12:38:40 GMT 3
Oloo I could easly grant you that you are not ignorant, but when you make a statement such as "In order to deal effectively with Al- Shabaab, a comprehensive strategy which is well thought should be in place", it presupposes that a comprehensive strategy does not exist and the Kenyan military are a bumbling lot driven by the spontaneous need to hurl missiles (I could have said stones) at some rag tag militant group. Perhaps you should look at the sequence of events leading to the statement by the security ministers and the rolling of equipment into Somalia. Surely there must have been prior planning! If you perhaps looked at the responses on your facebook page, it will tell you how far off your argument is from being relevant! Kamale PS. My inclusion of Migingo (and fish) was relevant and was not directed at any community, but was actually relevant vis a vis the territorial as well as economic justification for military action! Of course there has been some military planning. That much is obvious. But military planning is not enough. Once territory is seized it has to be held. you need an occupation force and the more territory is seized, the larger the occupation force needs to be. It would not be advisable to leave the 'occupation' up to the rag tag Somali militias who have shown before that they are not reliable and who are likely to listen to the highest bidder... And once Al Shabaab is driven out of certain towns which civilian strategy will be put in place to ensure the necessary structures and security are in place in to make local decsions and to receive humanitarian assistance? It takes a bit more than leaving it to community elders. If this is not done properly the population can turn against the 'occupiers" as it did in the case of Ethiopia. AMISOM is in far away Mogadishu and consists of about 8000 to 10000 troops. They have some offensive tasks but their key task is protecting the corrupt and inept TFG which is unpopular in most of Somalia. At the height of the UN/US involvement in the mid-1990's there were some 27.000 foreign troops and they were unable to hold sway. So the population in Jubaland and other parts of South Central should not count on support of AMISOM. It is more likely that Ethiopia will join in because it does not want a border area ruled by the Ogadenni clan. That will make matters even more complicated if not worse. Probably the only hope for those in the 'liberated' areas is some form of far-reaching self-government with loose links to the central level. They cannot rely on the TFG in Mogadishu and they should not become completely dependent on Kenya and Ethiopia or the broader international community. In recent years parts of South Central have had good food crops and they were largely able to sustain themselves. That is key. All this requires a civilian strategy. So far I have seen only military moves... I hope there is a lot happening that I cannot see but I doubt it. furaha |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 23, 2011 12:49:32 GMT 3
STATEMENT FROM KENYAN WRITERS AND PUBLIC INTELLECTUALS ON KENYA'S MILITARY INCURSION INTO SOMALIA STATEMENT FROM KENYAN WRITERS AND PUBLIC INTELLECTUALS We, the undersigned, register, in the strongest terms, our opposition to Kenya’s military incursion into Somalia. We note that several months at minimum is required to plan a military operation that involves crossing borders. Therefore the reasons put forward by the Kenyan government for this operation are demonstrably false. Statements from the French Government (see link below) and Medicins Sans Frontieres contradict the Kenyan Government’s allegation that Al-Shabaab is responsible for the kidnapping of Marie Dedieu and two other foreigners. We will kill some Somalis and call them Al-Shabaab. We will all feel very Kenyan indeed. They die, so we can create a national amnesia about 350,000 internally displaced Kenyans, missing World Bank monies, missing Education Ministry funds, the ICC-Kenya trials, 2012 elections, the implementation of our new constitution. The army will claim, as invading armies always do, that they have courageously engaged the enemy, when they have really killed innocent civilians. All Kenyans are paying already for this bout of blood-thirst. We will go on paying, for many years to come. We will pay with our taxes, our un-built schools and hospitals, our unpaid teachers, our still-jobless youth, our rapidly deteriorating security situation, our shattered relationship with our neighbours, We do not require the death of Somalis to know who and where we are. SIGNED: (in alphabetical order) Nguru Karugu
Keguro Macharia
Paul Mwangi Maina
Tom Maliti
Dr. Firoze Manji
Abdulrahman Mirimo
Dr. Wambui Mwangi
Kenne Mwikya
Benjamin Wambua Ndolo
Onyango Oloo
Odhiambo Oyoko
Shailja PatelFrance's statement on the death of Dedieu:
www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/pays-zones-geo_833/somalie_383/franc.
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Post by jakaswanga on Oct 23, 2011 14:10:11 GMT 3
Oloo,
I would have wholeheartedly signed the above petition. Of course there still can be a cyber variant!
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It is an old line. Truth is the first casualty of war. I put a second law, the law is the second casualty of war. In the great democracy on earth called the USA, there is a running body of scholarly work on the the powers of the president to take the nation to war, without the approval of congress. There is a theory that, as the power of the presidency receded internally over a period of time, the office has usurped foreign policy, and, using technical loopholes, subsequent presidents have gotten away with [illegal] wars whose declarations were not put before congress. This violation of the constitution becoming the norm. But they have sold those wars as mandatory to the primary interests of the United States, and, however beholden to certain parochial interests with super lobby groups, only mad men (like Noam Chomsky) would oppose them. Consequently and consecutively the patriotic chimes from the big drum hypnotised the nation. But all the same, as recently as May 2011, President Obama had to explain publicly that participating in the bombing of Libya under the auspices of NATO, did not mean he had taken the nation to war. And a new round of thinking started on the new defination of war.
Reading other comments (Oloo's essay has become a feasting fiesta apparently) there is a body of thought in Kenya which says.. the constitution is the least worry.
Oh no, nobody seems to doubt the constitution was violated, nay, it is rather so what if it was violated!? lets go kill shabaab! let us go collect Somali skulls and add our generals more stars!
Oloo is being forced into a corner of the treasonable. How dare he fail to bay for terrorist blood!
I will join this corner of traitors. The Kenyan anti-stock theft unit brigades and the adminstration police can take care of the north-eastern frontier and that endless straight line of a border, the army staying well inside of our borders as back up. The open invasion of Somalia is indeed a fake war, an unnecessary war. If they die, I will of course mourn my two relatives who are soldiers at the front, but when the army comes with her pomp and ceremonial theatrics to bring the bodies, I wont salute the indifferent flag which so would have wasted their young lives. I will spit on it.
Why this national silence on the importance of the due constitutional process in the declaration and prosecution of war?. It would seem that the most important document which, in current political discourse, underpins the second liberation, is already trash. Such is its fate in A bananaland with banana-head politicians conducting their banana war! I love bananas, they make wonderful waragi! But let my ancestors spare me banana politicians.
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Post by kunadawa on Oct 23, 2011 19:43:20 GMT 3
Onyango Oloo's advice on what should have been done is pathetically defective: send the police after the kidnappers, ignoring the unconstitunionality of police crossing international borders to carry out law enforcement. It is ok to critisize, but please give sensible alternatives. |
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Post by cheshirecat on Oct 23, 2011 21:18:53 GMT 3
On this being an impulsive reaction to the kidnaps; Does anyone really imagine an operation of this scale was planned in a few days?
Ever tried to plan a wedding.. let alone a full scale military operation involving thousands of soldiers, aircraft, naval vessels? US drones seems to have joined in the action, a few days before the invasion, the US sent a hundred military advisers, drawn from the US Special Forces to Uganda ostensibly to hunt for Kony. Coincidence?
This was probably planned many many months ago and rehearsed pretty well. Almost certain that our military is not led by idiots who have never heard of Guerrilla warfare.
On whether it was the right action. I was in Mombasa a few days ago. Pop in there and see the effects of the kidnappings on hotels there. Cant even imagine what its like in Malindi and beyond. If your guests can be raped in your house without you doign anything, how long will it take before the rapists move on to your wife and daughters? Bullies see inaction, peace talks blah blah as weakness. Al-shabaab will never be stopped in any other way.
on whether this is a project by the PNU wing of gava. I have no words on this.
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Post by shifta on Oct 24, 2011 5:46:37 GMT 3
Kamalet beat me to it:
People were screaming murder, where is the president to act on Migingo; when the Merille raided, the decibel went even higher, yet both can not compare to the damage of al shabab.
At last kibaki has acted decisively and now OO is leading the voices searching for a moral and just war.
The other assumption I reject is the one ati Kenya is out to occupy Somalia yet I have to hear that voiced anywhere by Kenya. Ethiopia went into Mogadishu and kicked teh crap out of the Islamic Courts, and left. As we speak al shabab have been kicked out of most of Mogadishu.
We can choose to live in fear of these thugs or do something about it. I am glad the prezzo chose to carry out his katiba obligations.
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Post by foresight on Oct 24, 2011 7:06:03 GMT 3
OO I enjoy reading your articles -
I read your digital, but I WAS NOT convinced that it was well researched either, The points you raise as your reasons for “crying wolf” or “raising the red flag” are honestly debased.
What I mean is, they lack objectivity, for they lean too much on your ideology, political alignment and conjecture. Apart from that, it also appears as though you are contradicting yourself in certain instances.
I will state below the reasons you give as why we should not have gone to war and then give my opinion, looking at your reasons as pointers. You said that the war..
1] Violates the constitution-
2] It’s NOT driven by patriotism but by an imperialist agenda focusing on ideological control-
3] It’s a PNU strategy of syphoning from the tax payer’s kitty into to the highly secretive military chest for subsequent padding of the 2012 war chest for their various presidential bids-
4] Is a tool to black mail the PM and buy time for those who are facing charges at the ICC for the forthcoming elections purposes-
5] Kenya Military competency has not been tested this type of warfare.
1] IT VIOLATES THE CONSTITUTION-
Suppose there were Christians living in a country governed by secular laws. Suppose that government issued a rule that violates God's laws. What should Christians do? Mark you Christians are taught to recognize that governments only exist by God's authority.
For that reason When the Jewish court issued a ruling that the apostles were to stop teaching in the name of Jesus, "But Peter and the other apostles answered and said: "We ought to OBEY GOD rather THAN MEN"" (Acts 5:29).
What they were saying in other words is this "if the governments’ edict was to conflict with Gods… then GODS edicts reign supreme"
OO When you say that the “verdict of war’ violates the constitution it reveals your argument as myopic in terms of scope.
I for example obey the law but I am not a slave of the law. If my baby is dying in a car, and the traffic light turns red as I approach it, I will make it green. That doesnt mean that I am a law breaker, circumstances make me operate a higher law.. the law of necessity.
For the purpose of the law is to serve me not me to serve it. Similarly the constitution of Kenya must have its goal as a tool to serve Kenyans not to hinder them.
I argue that in the bigger context the Somalia insurgency has become a major problem in the horn of Africa. They are taking advantage of the AU unwillingness to do anything to enforce civility in Africa. Kenya has done the right thing. If people are being abducted in Lamu, and killed by these thugs, the same constitution must protect me.
2] IT’S NOT DRIVEN BY PATRIOTISM BUT BY AN IMPERIALIST AGENDA FOCUSING ON IDEOLOGICAL CONTROL.
Patriotism in itself will not win you wars OO. You need partners coming together with a similar AGENDA. War nowadays is about bringing people of like mind together.
You cannot rely on patriotism alone to push this war. Other wheels will have to come in place; Kenyans are hardly patriotic to thIS NATION anyway. Kenyans ARE SO entrenched in their tribal cocoons, this angle of patriotism will not sell, its really a JOKE!
If you think I am lying just check out JUKWAA and its political alignments. Is it not a contradiction of sort that you talk of patriotism while you are condemning the VERY initiative that ought to bring out YOUR patriotism?
I SAY lets join hands with those who are willing to go the same direction with us to solve this Somalia issue once and for all.
I believe that its dangerous, I believe it’s risky I believe its costly, but I also add, since we are already in it, ITS NOW NECESSARY. My patriotism MUST NOW be tested.. support the troops until its done.
3] IT’S A PNU STRATEGY OF SYPHONING FROM THE TAX PAYER’S KITTY INTO TO THE HIGHLY SECRETIVE MILITARY CHEST FOR SUBSEQUENT PADDING OF THE 2012 WAR CHEST FOR THEIR VARIOUS PRESIDENTIAL BIDS-
OO This argument may look brilliant but it is far-fetched. I incline my politics towards ODM, but I refuse to buy into this kind of a polarized stand with regards to this Somali war.
I don’t believe the KENYA government in this time and age will sacrifice and subject to deathly conditions its citizen for such a low end. It is a good argument, but that’s all….
4] USING THE WAR TO BLACK MAIL THE PM AND BUY TIME FOR THOSE WHO ARE FACING CHARGES AT THE ICC FOR THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS PURPOSES-
This reasoning HAS SOME TRUTH IN IT, but purely from a circumstantial point of view. The TIMING of this war gives this argument credence and there is nothing we can do about it. But I cannot imagine that it’s a tool for me to run with, for those enjoy and love political propaganda them this will be a huge talking point, to me its more circustantial than ochestrated.
5] KENYA MILITARY COMPETENCY HAS NOT BEEN TESTED THIS TYPE OF WARFARE.
OO I quoted below some of your statements that seem to give KENYA MILITARY huge credit in terms of preparedness. You are admitting that this thing has been in the making for a long time and that KENYA MILITARY and the LEADERS have discussed this. YOU also admit that Kenya is not in this alone.
Here is what you said -
OO said “Contrary to the impression that this is an angry national reaction to a recent provocation, the fact of the matter is that this military operation has been in the planning pipeline for quite some time”
Then…
OO said, “According to impeccable sources who are quite familiar with the inside workings of Kenya’s military, intelligence and security machinations, what is happening in Somalia IS PART OF A DETAILED AND COORDINATED IGAD JOINT INTERVENTION IN SOMALIA WITH SPECIFIC ROLES FOR ETHIOPIA, THE TRANSITIONAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN MOGADISHU, THE AFRICAN UNION TROOPS AND THE KENYAN MILITARY”.
Then…
OO said, [/b]“A story published in the October 28, 2011 issue of the Africa Report cites the Kenyan political leadership at the highest echelons admitting that an earlier plan to go after Al-Shabaab covertly from Kenya using specially trained elite forces recruited from the Kenyan ethnic Somali population floundered after most of these recruits DESERTED after their training”.
In the end I conclude that your digital rather than discourage Kenyans from going to war… reveals more of the reasons why they should.
One final thing these excerpts from YUSUF DIRIR ALI left me with a bad taste in my mouth..
Yusuf Dirir Ali: In recent years Kenya was enriched with not only the looting of the Somalia’s International assistance through the NGOs operated mafia that consider the humanitarian assistance, war and drought confounded Somalis as their personal spoils of war.
Yusuf Dirir Ali: Not only that, but Kenya is also benefiting from Somalis who bring with them capital, technical and business expertise to that corruption riddle East African country.
Yusuf Dirir Ali: Somalis have both directly & indirectly created jobs for millions of Kenyans. Thus, Kenya benefited from Somalia more than any country in the world.
Yusuf Dirir Ali: For those simple reasons, Kenyans should be grateful to the Somalis and must not try to slaughter the goose that laid the golden eggs.
Yusuf Dirir Ali: Kenyans and for that matter any other neighbouring country must think twice before they venture to play with Somali fire; it will never die very easily.
Yusuf Dirir Al:i Somalis might consider moving their businesses and investments from Kenya to neighbouring Republic of Somaliland and The Republic of Djibouti.
This gentleman is rather shortsighted, for he really believes that Somalis are making Kenya what it is… forgetting that it’s the other way round..
I do however agree with whole heartedly on this aspect.
“The Kenyan regime could prove very gullible ideologically to the machinations of Al Shabaab. Remember, Kenyans in the north and among sections of the country's Muslim population may be vulnerable and even receptive to overtures from pro-Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab elements who may portray the conflict with the Kenyan state in RELIGIOUS terms as a Jihad against pro-Western infidels headquartered in Nairobi. There have been credible reports of KENYANS being recruited or acting as recruiters for both Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda.
THAT WAR IN SOMALIA is necessary in my opinion, but like all wars will have its moments of highs and lows.
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 12:42:59 GMT 3
On this being an impulsive reaction to the kidnaps; Does anyone really imagine an operation of this scale was planned in a few days? Ever tried to plan a wedding.. let alone a full scale military operation involving thousands of soldiers, aircraft, naval vessels? US drones seems to have joined in the action, a few days before the invasion, the US sent a hundred military advisers, drawn from the US Special Forces to Uganda ostensibly to hunt for Kony. Coincidence? This was probably planned many many months ago and rehearsed pretty well. Almost certain that our military is not led by idiots who have never heard of Guerrilla warfare. On whether it was the right action. I was in Mombasa a few days ago. Pop in there and see the effects of the kidnappings on hotels there. Cant even imagine what its like in Malindi and beyond. If your guests can be raped in your house without you doign anything, how long will it take before the rapists move on to your wife and daughters? Bullies see inaction, peace talks blah blah as weakness. Al-shabaab will never be stopped in any other way. on whether this is a project by the PNU wing of gava. I have no words on this.
I do not know WHICH ESSAY you are responding to. It is certainly NOT the one I wrote.Did you read the following excerpt from MY essay: If you did, then what are you reacting to above? I will ignore the rest of your comments because I will be covering them in responses to other rejoinders. Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 12:55:49 GMT 3
Onyango Oloo's advice on what should have been done is pathetically defective: send the police after the kidnappers, ignoring the unconstitunionality of police crossing international borders to carry out law enforcement. It is ok to critisize, but please give sensible alternatives. A selective reading of my essay allows you to make the contorted and distorted verdict above. Here is what I actually said: And you make me chuckle when you talk of "unconstitutionality" even as you loudly endorse this illegal military misadventure which violates the very constitution you are talking about. Onyango Oloo
Nairobi |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 13:26:55 GMT 3
People were screaming murder, where is the president to act on Migingo; when the Merille raided, the decibel went even higher, yet both can not compare to the damage of al shabab. At last kibaki has acted decisively and now OO is leading the voices searching for a moral and just war. The other assumption I reject is the one ati Kenya is out to occupy Somalia yet I have to hear that voiced anywhere by Kenya. Ethiopia went into Mogadishu and kicked teh crap out of the Islamic Courts, and left. As we speak al shabab have been kicked out of most of Mogadishu. We can choose to live in fear of these thugs or do something about it. I am glad the prezzo chose to carry out his katiba obligations. ( I am sure you are aware that is a very pejorative put down of Kenyan Somalis): My essay is on the military misadventure in Somalia- not how the government should have reacted in Migingo or against the Merille. You think IT IS KIBAKI, who has "acted at last"? You are sure it is NOT Obama? What does "occupation" mean? Are there Kenyan government troops in Somalia or not? Are they taking over Somali towns or not? Are they trying to capture Kismayu or not? I would have been equally "glad" if the "prezzo" carried out his "Katiba obligations" by actually adhering strictly to the constitutional obligations in regards to declaring and going to war-which he woefully neglected to do. |
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 13:39:28 GMT 3
Response to Foresight:
You STARTLE me, quite frankly, with some of your attempts at rebuttal.
What was all that about Christians and Jews and the law?
We promulgated the Constitution as the Supreme Law of Kenya on Friday, August 27, 2010, did we not?
Did you see President Emilio Mwai Kibaki take an oath, swearing to protect the constitution?
Have you read the constitution in regards to the provisions stipulating when and how to declare war?
Were those provisions followed by the Grand Coalition Government?
Did you read this little snippet in my essay:
Does it EXCLUDE ODM, and indeed other parties from my critique?
On the excerpt from Somaliland, all I can say that my name is NOT Dr. Yusuf Dirrir Ali, neither has he appointed me as his spokesperson so I will not respond to your observations on his views.
Incidentally, where did I ever claim that I try to be "objective" when I am expressing my views? Why are you surprised that my essay is informed by my ideological and political leanings? Did you expect me to write a socialist essay from a capitalist perspective?
Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 13:45:16 GMT 3
Folks:
Please keep them coming-I mean the scathing critiques of my latest digital essay.
They make for fascinating reading and I relish the opportunity of skewering them to pieces.
Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
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Post by Onyango Oloo on Oct 24, 2011 14:56:03 GMT 3
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Post by Daktari wa makazi on Oct 24, 2011 14:58:49 GMT 3
This debate is basically about the executive powers to go to war. Jurisprudence is littered with different interpretations of why and how to execute presidential powers, especially when war is being declared.
To paraphrase, Oloo is a proponent of the constitutional theory of presidential power where he argued that presidential power is strictly limited. He believes the powers of the executive to consist only of those specifically enumerated in the constitution. He has support. According to William Howard Taft, “there is no undefined residuum of power that he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest…[presidential power] must be justified and vindicated by affirmative constitutional …provision”
But, there are several other theories of presidential power,which counter Oloo's one, take for example the stewardship theory, to which Teddy Roosevelt proscribed. He maintained the belief that a president of the US could do anything that was not expressly forbidden in the Constitution. As Roosevelt stated in his autobiography, “I did and caused to be done many things not previously done by the President…I did not usurp power, but I did greatly broaden the use of executive power”. As these words suggest, the intent of a presidential steward is to leave the office in a better condition than when they assumed power.
Another theory is the prerogative theory, which extends the broadest range of powers to the president. In his essay “The Second Treatise of Government,” John Locke defines the concept of prerogative power as the power “to act according to discretion for the public good, without the prescription of the law, and sometimes even against it.” The prerogative theory increases presidential powers to include the ability to carry out actions, which are explicitly forbidden, should they be deemed to be in the national interest? Such power was exercised by Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War, “he appealed to military necessity, asserting that the Constitution’s Commander-in-Chief Clause…and its Take-Care Clause…combined to create a ‘war power’ for the president that was virtually unlimited;” and taken even further a century later when Richard Nixon claimed “when the President does it, that means that it is not illegal”.
I think it is helpful therefore to consider the overall benefit and what is to be achieved with the declaration of war considering the harm we expose ourselves to in the process. I will leave it there, at the moment.
Can I pick on Kunadawa rebuttal, that the police has no jurisdiction in arresting the kidnappers in foreign lands. He seems to have forgotten that the police and prosecuting bodies have arrested and arraigned people on waters away from our shores and charged them with piracy in our local courts. Why did they not engage the army or navy on that matter, to kill the 'pirates' without recourse to the courts?
The proposition that the military may not achieve any everlasting solutions in the menace of Al-Shabaab is the strongest one I have heard so far. I fear that we could kill the current crop of Al-Shabaab, only to open ourselves to age old animosity from a bunch of people of have nothing to lose hanging on our backyard.
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Post by job on Oct 24, 2011 17:57:27 GMT 3
Oloo's intervention was timely and quite insightful. I'm not surprised at the responses so far. This brings flashbacks of the George W. Bush intervention in Iraq post 9-11. The American public initially supported Bush's misguided intervention into Iraq only to turn fiercely against it a short while later - when the disastrous consequences of the war started emerging. I'm with Oloo on this. This is what is called a belated and reactionary response stemming from Kenya’s initial failure to exert regional leadership. We are basically followers – now aping the Ethiopian and Ugandan precedents of escalated militarism in Somalia. And of course as noted by several others – the war is unconstitutional. The timing is also quite suspect – not just juxtaposed with the ICC calendar, but also Kibaki’s impending retirement. Presidents who normally send their nations to war just before they leave office are normally acutely aware it's their successors who’ll eventually deal with the war’s consequences. Instead of assuming leadership much earlier on and setting tone for a different (diplomatic/political) path towards a viable solution, we are now engaging in a reactionary war in Somalia. If Daniel arap Moi could chart a political settlement between the more antagonistic Arab and Black divide in the Sudan, why couldn’t Kenya replicate with an inter-clan political settlement for the Somali clan feuds? Because we lacked foresight and visionary leadership at State House! Our myopic leaders assumed it wouldn’t bother us, even as they feted and extorted from the Somali warlords and pirates busy investing in Nairobi. We are now rushing into a war we’ve always resisted despite tremendous pressure from the U.S. The net effect of this war will be: influx of millions more of Somalis across our porous borders; tones of illegal arms into our territory; guaranteed terrorist retaliatory attacks (mainly) targeting our tourist installations. I will predict a counterproductive outcome in the medium to long term. Even if the U.S. funds the entire Kenyan military bill for the exercise plus further support in form of air power (drones et al), the CIA and Joint Special Operations Commanders, I don’t see such militarism bringing any stability to Somalia nor peace in Kenya. The chief beneficiaries of this war in my view will be the profiteers coordinating the US-Kenya military cooperation which is worth billions of shillings. That’s a few individual elites controlling Kenya’s security apparatus…the same leaders who’ve been in business with Somali warlords and pirates…meanwhile the rest of the public will be exposed to adverse consequences of the misguided war. Bookmark this article by Jeremy Scahill. www.thenation.com/article/163210/blowback-somaliaPay attention to the following excerpts; first a description of top Somali warlords living and investing in Kenya and second, a UN report on these interventions by regional governments:Case I - Mogadishu Warlord Mohamed Qanyare.
When I first met Qanyare, in Nairobi, he was living at the Laico Regency Hotel, discretely owned by then–Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi. Qanyare has made millions of dollars over the decades on real estate investments in Nairobi and uses the city as a base to plot his return to Somali politics. He retains a seat in the Somali Parliament, but that is a pro forma designation, allocated by the country’s clan-based system of representation. He tells me that he intends to run for president if the country ever has an election…
And he described to me how the CIA met with him Nairobi, Kenya, the day after Christmas…, and they created a partnership where the CIA was renting Mohamed Qanyare’s private airstrip—-he had his own airport outside of Mogadishu—-and that CIA and U.S. special operations agents would fly in once or twice a week to meet with him. They would show him photos of people that they wanted hunted down, and they began grooming this, sort of, death squad through Mohamed Qanyare.
Qanyare says agents would fly in to see him at least once or twice a week. The CIA, he says, began paying him in the ballpark of $100,000 to $150,000 a month to use his airport. At times, he would take agents around Mogadishu, pointing out various headquarters or houses he said were occupied by Al Qaeda figures. Qanyare soon became Washington’s man in Mogadishu. Case II -The Ras Kamboni Movement Warlord - Sheik Ahmed Mohammed Islam (aka Madobe, or Black).
Since the early 1990s, the stretch of land just across the Somali border from Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camp—the world’s largest, and the epicenter of the humanitarian crisis in the region today—has been the stronghold of the Ras Kamboni movement, currently led by Sheik Islam, also known as Madobe, or Black… Madobe is heavily invested in real estate in Nairobi.
By 2010 Madobe’s forces had announced they were at war with the Shabab and supporting Somalia’s government forces. I asked him who is financing and supporting his fight against the Shabab. Some say it is Kenya, others Ethiopia. He smiled as he provided a nonanswer: “I would accept any American offer to support me,” he said. “The legal way.”
According to the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia, Madobe’s forces have received “training and support” from the Kenyan government, as well as “technicals.” In some battles with the Shabab around the key city of Dhobley, including this past March, “artillery for these incursions was provided by the Kenyan military, which included military helicopters to provide air support.” July 2011 UN Monitoring Group Report on Somalia
One of the more powerful forces that has emerged in Somalia’s anti-Shabab, government-militia nexus is Ahluu Sunna Wa’Jama (ASWJ), a Sufi Muslim paramilitary organization. Ethiopia started arming and financing the group, as well as providing its forces with training and occasional boots on the ground. By early 2010 ASWJ was widely seen as an Ethiopian—and therefore US—proxy. In March 2010 it signed a formal cooperation agreement with Sheik Sharif’s government.
This past July, the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia declared that some ASWJ militias “appear to be proxies for neighboring States rather than emergent local authorities.” According to the UN report, ASWJ also received support and training from Southern Ace, a private security firm run by a white South African, Edgar Van Tonder.
Southern Ace committed the “most egregious violations of the arms embargo” on Somalia. Between April 2009 and early 2011, according to the United Nations, Southern Ace operated a 220-strong militia, paying $1 million in salaries and at least $150,000 for arms and ammunition. Southern Ace began acquiring arms from the weapons market in Somalia, including scores of Kalashnikovs, heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and an anti-aircraft ZU-23 machine gun with 2,000 rounds of ammunition. Its arms purchases “were so substantial” that local officials “noted a significant rise in the price of ammunition and a shortage of ZU-23 rounds.”
The company also imported to Somalia “Philippine army-style uniforms and bullet-proof jackets in support of their operations,” according to the UN.
Backed by Ethiopia and Southern Ace, ASWJ conducted a series of major offensives against the Shabab that the UN alleged were supported through violations of the arms embargo. While Ethiopia and the United States undoubtedly see ASWJ as the best counterbalance to the influence of the Shabab and Al Qaeda, in just three years they have transformed a previously nonviolent entity into one of the most powerful armed groups in Somalia.
“To a certain extent, the resort to Somali proxy forces by foreign Governments represents a potential return to the ‘warlordism’ of the 1990s and early 2000s, which has historically proved to be counterproductive,” the UN soberly concluded. July 2011 Africa Confidential Report on Somalia
As the drought and famine grabbed international headlines in July, the Shabab announced a tactical retreat from Mogadishu in August, paving the way for Somali and AMISOM forces to move into areas that had been under the total control of the Shabab for more than two years. The Somali government has portrayed this as a military victory and has declared the beginning of the end of the group.
However, “These assessments owe more to wishful thinking than reality,” according to an analysis published in the well-respected journal Africa Confidential. “The military and political damage to Al Shabaab is likely to prove temporary.” The drought has undoubtedly weakened the Shabab’s short-term ability to collect taxes, and diaspora revenue has slowed, partly because of increased US monitoring of Somali money transfers, resulting in an inability to buy sufficient ammunition to fight the well-armed AMISOM forces. While the Shabab has taken heavy casualties among its leadership, the group remains a powerful force, one that has shown an ability to adapt. “The war in Mogadishu and elsewhere is by no means over,” according to Africa Confidential’s analysis.
“Al Shabaab could adopt low-level insurgency and avenge the loss of its senior cadres by carrying out a ‘spectacular,’ a major bombing in Somalia or a neighboring country.”
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