emali
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Post by emali on Feb 6, 2013 9:12:50 GMT 3
Mutahi Ngunyi explains his Tyranny of Numbers hypothesisWhat makes Ngunyi different from other prognosticators is that he boils down his analysis to two simple facts; -It’s about tribe and Jubilee has the numbers -Voter turnout compounded Jubilees numbers He won’t find any argument from me to the contrary, what I find interesting is the reason for the high Gikuyu voter turnout (I disagree with him on the high Kalenjin turnout because it wasn’t high). The Central voter turnout was very high (same for Nakuru & I would assume other places Gikuyu’s reside), I even remember a picture in the Nation of a Truck sponsored by some ‘NGO’ ferrying people to registration centers in Kiambu... Was the reason for this high turnout based on Uhuru’s popularity? Saving Uhuru from The Hague?, a fear of a Raila presidency? Not wanting to be out of power? IMHO in Central elections is a Job and one with very tangible results the sooner rest of the country catches up the better for all of us... if the voter turnout was the same in the rest of the country Uhuruto wouldn’t stand a chance at the presidency,Habari ndio hiyo folks now lets talk about manifesto’s ;D... At least Ngunyi isn’t sugar-coating what our politicians have been doing for decades he is simple saying it as it is...
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emali
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Post by emali on Feb 1, 2013 17:42:17 GMT 3
@ Mwalimumkuu I think what you see as my deviation is to pull in the Police appointments by Kibaki, well let’s assume you are right and I am being partisan... How will this thing be pursued professionally? By the commission whose work is done? another commission? The short and long of it is that its dead...you cannot solve this problem two months before election when the same problem that created it still exists if anything it is worse now...no one ever held the PPO to account which by extension means any ‘head’ of anything is rarely scrutinized... The commission was very easy on Iteere and frankly it never looked like they were going into any dept on the whole matter... its sole aim was to get a fall guy and case closed... Mbijjiwe was the guy... Emali It is always easy to tell one's guilt. Waiganjo refused to testify before the inquiry committee. Mbijjiwe only provided a sword statement and refused to be asked any questions. Just give it a thought.... @ Kamalet I don’t doubt Waiganjo & Mbijjiwe’s guilt...that is very open for all to see... The issue I have is there is no conviction by the commission & Kibaki by extension to solve the core problem...why is Iteere safi kami pamba? We talk about ‘Reforms’ in the police force when the real problem has nothing to do with reforms but actually people doing/not doing their Jobs. This Waiganjo commission is a perfect setting to go into what ails the force but in the end it simply shows why the problem persists. Iteere should be the first one in line taking a bullet but he won’t...Waiganjo/Mbijjiwe are only doing what criminals do...looking for a safe landing...and they are being given one because the rot may go even beyond Iteere & no one wants that whole story aired in public...
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emali
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Post by emali on Feb 1, 2013 17:23:11 GMT 3
What on earth are "legible" leaders? (maina 30.59) Why are the big parties dumping the worst of the rabble on Nairobi don't they realise that the capital needs business minded professionals to run it? At this rate the real Nairobians will have to move out of the city I hope Adoyo wins a senatorial seat ,he seems to have a grasp of issues facing Nairobi and has some well thought out solutions It seems the parties can only provide the type of leaders the majority of the electorate respond to. That is why, to be brutally honest, democracy sucks. On the national front we are still stuck with the same old feud between the "big" tribes that we have had since independence because at the end of the day it simply degenerates into a numbers game. Let's be honest, Nairobi is a city of slums & ad hoc developments. The people will give us their leaders. Sigh.... @ B6K I like your take on many issues... I agree...in the end it’s all about numbers...based on tribal blocks...with minimal eligibility requirements (& a health compensation package) you end up with the Sonko’s & Waititus and soon enough we will have a bunch of v.2.0 & v.2.1’s of them showing up...
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emali
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Post by emali on Feb 1, 2013 17:06:14 GMT 3
@ Mwalimumkuu
I think what you see as my deviation is to pull in the Police appointments by Kibaki, well let’s assume you are right and I am being partisan...
How will this thing be pursued professionally? By the commission whose work is done? another commission? The short and long of it is that its dead...you cannot solve this problem two months before election when the same problem that created it still exists if anything it is worse now...no one ever held the PPO to account which by extension means any ‘head’ of anything is rarely scrutinized...
The commission was very easy on Iteere and frankly it never looked like they were going into any dept on the whole matter... its sole aim was to get a fall guy and case closed...
Mbijjiwe was the guy...
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emali
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Post by emali on Feb 1, 2013 15:54:03 GMT 3
This Waiganjo story will go nowhere...Iteere himself already pleaded his ‘innocence’, the ‘commissions’ work is done and now the courts will deal with him...Waiganjo will keep milking it,Kibaki won’t do anything, Kenyans will soon forget & the Police force will continue with its disservice...
As usual while Raila was out of the Country (they love this trick) Kibaki & his handlers appoint Muhuro and some questionable characters...its business as usual...
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emali
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Post by emali on Feb 1, 2013 15:37:24 GMT 3
Any political forum has to be moderated strictly, it doesn’t matter if you are in the U.S.,Scandinavia or Kenya...
You cannot have a forum where anyone can post with minimal moderation especially on Politics/Race/Religion...it’s not whether you can do it (because you can’t) it’s only for how long you can sustain it...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 21, 2013 23:09:28 GMT 3
Had to bring this back , after yesterday faceoff with Waititu -kidero still hasnt learnt a thing or two in live tv interview /debate Indeed....Kidero has the ability to make you vote for Waititu which is saying something because Waititu has literally no idea what a governor does...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 21, 2013 22:50:21 GMT 3
@ Otishotish I agree with pretty much everything you wrote...I do not see any benefit whatsoever for Raila to be keeping Njenga’s company...I think I even opined about it ages ago here on Jukwaa..... Yes you did [offer that opinion]. But just to play the devils advocate here: for some, does the end not justify the means? I mean some ruthless drives may not entertain moral compunctions. Sometimes called the tragedy of ambition in classical drama. Raila’s quest for the presidency will only be attained on the GEMA originated ‘41 vs 1’ scenario...for Raila to be PORK all tribes have to align like they did in 2007... ‘The end justifying the means’ cannot work in the long run because Raila will always be negotiating from a position of weakness...he can get the Maina Njenga’s, MRC’s, SLDF’s, Njemp’s, NEP e.t.c. then at the last minute Ruto walks away or Mudavadi (or whomever because as a default our politics will always dictate that there has to be a msaliti) and he is back to the drawing board fighting a force that is more financially endowed, has the numbers and only needs to put in a 1/4 of his effort... For the end to justify the means the only answer in such a scenario from Raila’s perspective is a Coup which will naturally lead to a counter Coup and so on...very undesirable outcomes. So ‘acceptance’ is the way to go....work with what you have(which is plenty enough), just because the other side don’t have a leg to stand on doesn’t mean you stoop to their level...the ICC cases may yet bar Uhuruto so he might be given the easiest path to the presidency so it could in the end be poetic justice. Hey I understand it’s not easy being in Raila’s shoes or whoever takes up his shoes but to employ an ‘ends justifying the means’ will not cut it in Kenya because it will always give the other side more impetus to rubbish your credentials (what is wrong with a Luo making money?)...now if we were in say DRC or Somalia it would be a perfect strategy... Malcolm X being the strongest proponent of the phrase ultimately found out how far it can take someone...not quite to the destination...in a ‘democratic’ society that strategy always comes undone....
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 21, 2013 21:01:44 GMT 3
@ Otishotish
I agree with pretty much everything you wrote...I do not see any benefit whatsoever for Raila to be keeping Njenga’s company...I think I even opined about it ages ago here on Jukwaa.
Raila is not an easy person to understand just this weekend in Kericho I think he was telling the crowd that he will be fighting to bring the ICC cases back home...now does that make any sense? Is there any benefit to that statement? Better yet who in that crowd actually left the place saying ‘ Wapi Debe...Raila Tosha!’?
The real problem is the ‘us vs. them’ mentality captured very well by Johns & Reporter911...you are either with Raila or you are with Uhuruto.If you are with Martha/PK (read Gikuyu’s) you are with Uhuruto if you are with Kiyapi(?#!?) I think you are with Uhuruto too. With that being the setting it really doesn’t matter who Raila associates with or what he actually says after all the bar has been set so low by Uhuruto that Raila will always be ‘right’ they are judging him on a curve and without Uhuruto their will be no need for any curve...basically he is safi kama pamba.
The sad reality of it all is that those of us who are with PK/Martha/Kiyapi are anomalies we are looked at like spoilers/wasted voters/wanaringa types mostly by Raila supporters, the Uhuruto crowd don’t even bother coz they ‘have the numbers’ so this very well penned article of yours will get responses like the Reporter911 one whereby you are left scratching your head whether she really believes what she wrote? or is she normal? Is she a mammal? and other ?!#! But the reality is that she is not alone...the fight for a Raila presidency has seen many hurdles, sniffed then been robbed PORK status among many things and most have internalized his struggle...why should they abandon it when we they are so close is the clarion call...damn everything...
That Omwenga response (you mentioned) to the Njenga/Raila association is the only valid response you can expect to get on this topic from any ODM supporter because it cannot be defended...you Remember Wanyee? The 911 conspiracy theorist well I think he eventually took your advice and took a walk in the park & probably went camping too (or he went to a 911 conspiracy commune to live the rest of his days surrounded by his peers)...we can only hope some people will follow his lead because sometimes when the only thing staring you in the mirror is the truth nothing else is left....
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 19, 2013 0:10:05 GMT 3
Both CORD and Jubilee are acting like these nominations are an act of god...some unforeseen event that came out of nowhere, tragic...the only thing that’s saving them is there are very few Oduol’s out there (or real competition), people who won’t take this Sham lying down...Jubilee’s Mugambi in Othaya is crying foul for a number of reasons, and it looks like it’s too early to even speculate, most TNA zones are still voting or still in a mess...but politics is about perception and CORD today is the biggest loser... We now have five ODM MP’s branding Oduol a mole, siasa ya pesa nane hiyo...what happened to the 13 Billion ODM had for elections? They go to bed on Wednesday then show up Friday evening claiming Oduol is a mole when they did not even have returning officers counting the ballots! Sending a petrified returning officer to announce what is obviously a sham Siaya result is very Kibakiesque, that won’t fly... And some people are still defending this sham...Wycliffe Muga captures this political fanaticism very well in this Star article.... www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-102349/how-fanaticism-defines-politicsMiguna must be smiling somewhere... ODOUL WAS BRANDED A MOLE VERY EARLIER ON A FEW MONTHS AGO...WHEN HE WAS SPOTTED BY PEOPLE WITH ONYANGO OLOO UHURU"TNT" CAMPAIGN MANAGER INCLUDING "TNT" OTHER BIG WIGS.. AS RUMOUR HAS IT.. Kenyans should be encouraged Kenyans to take IPHONE photo's to catch this MOLES.. AT LEAST MUDAVADI COME OUT IN THE OPEN ABOUT HIS UHURU'TNA MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE" EVEN THOUGH UHURU DISOWNED HIM AFTER!!... ODOUL CAN'T HIDE FACTS FOR LONG.. SIRI'S ITA TOKA.. ;D BY WHO? BY REPORTER11 UNDERCOVER AGENTS? LORD SAVE US ALL THEY DONE UNLEASHED MOLES EVERYWHERE!! I SEE DEAD PEOPLE...PLEASE...TAFADHALI..PLEASE... I want no part of your large caps & virtual atomic bombs...keep looking for the moles,I'm done here...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 18, 2013 23:40:49 GMT 3
Both CORD and Jubilee are acting like these nominations are an act of god...some unforeseen event that came out of nowhere, tragic...the only thing that’s saving them is there are very few Oduol’s out there (or real competition), people who won’t take this Sham lying down...Jubilee’s Mugambi in Othaya is crying foul for a number of reasons, and it looks like it’s too early to even speculate, most TNA zones are still voting or still in a mess...but politics is about perception and CORD today is the biggest loser... We now have five ODM MP’s branding Oduol a mole, siasa ya pesa nane hiyo...what happened to the 13 Billion ODM had for elections? They go to bed on Wednesday then show up Friday evening claiming Oduol is a mole when they did not even have returning officers counting the ballots! Sending a petrified returning officer to announce what is obviously a sham Siaya result is very Kibakiesque, that won’t fly... And some people are still defending this sham...Wycliffe Muga captures this political fanaticism very well in this Star article.... www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-102349/how-fanaticism-defines-politicsMiguna must be smiling somewhere...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 17, 2013 17:33:51 GMT 3
What’s with all the delays and no ballot papers at all in some counties...its seems as if both CORD & Jubilee were not prepared at all and maybe for different reasons...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 16, 2013 19:20:13 GMT 3
@ Otish
The grim picture you paint I cannot imagine...
Their choices are limited I get that but they can’t run forever...unless they become presidents for life which is a sure way to end up on a cargo plane (your words I think) on their way to ‘somewhere in the pacific’ having been fingered by Nguyai & Kuttuny....
You are also assuming that Uhuru and Ruto will be united for five years if all your saying actually happens. Unless Uhuru allows Ruto to be the most powerful VP since Independence Ruto cannot help who he is, he will Rebel or more likely he will not stand being Uhuru’s puppet... a falling out is inevitable, what if the Kalenjins turn on him?...and with that their case is sealed...
It won’t take long for common folk to start feeling the effect of a Dictatorship, Sanctions, a poor economy e.t.c...the honeymoon won’t last...even with KDF support they won’t be able to quell the people...its one thing if this was 1975 but today I just don’t see it...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 16, 2013 17:36:17 GMT 3
I still maintain they will not run, they are either going to be stopped by the Courts or they will reign in Mudavadi for a second time in a ‘their come a time’ scenario.
The consequences of them absconding cannot be saddled by the nation, because:-
-Kenya is not a dictatorship, it will be near impossible to run a country based on the rule of law (a new constitution 67% supported) when violating the same law...how can the Judiciary operate, what about the armed forces or even relationships with neighbouring countries? Campaigns are just that campaigns...ruling a country like Kenya is not easy even with a small mandate, ask Kibaki (even for Dictators Moi & Kenyatta) let alone a fugitive presidency...the honeymoon will be over pretty quick.
-Does the ICC have a statute of limitations? I doubt it does so running is just postponing the inevitable, just like a Mounty I’m inclined to believe the ICC always gets his man (Bashir will not be president for life his day will come)
-They have consistently said they will attend the trials, to turnaround after getting elected and say no is quite the task, how exactly will they say no? At their inauguration? In parliament? Just ignore the ICC like they are not their? They cannot pull it off whichever way you look at it...
-We are a tribal nation,infact tribe alone is what would make Uhuruto president that means for the rest of the 40 tribes Uhuruto will be what they are fugitive ICC suspects. They will not get the support of the rest of the Nation Imagine ODM/Amani/Wiper e.t.c as the opposition they will make it very difficult for them, now they are being silent because of the campaigns wait kiumane.
-Going back to the dictatorship angle, we are not Egypt or Khomeini’s Iran....Uhuruto cannot rule by decree which is the only avenue left after absconding. Kenyans have enjoyed freedom under Kibaki they are not going back, it is worth noting no columnist, opinion maker nor anyone of repute has seconded the idea of an absconded Uhuruto presidency even them running is only really trumpeted by the Mpigs.
-Kibaki has done everything to save them (poorly) but he is not behind their campaign. Now with the Wanjohi’s doing everything in their power to make them not run ‘other’ measures can be instituted like leading them to their slaughter in the court...the Supreme court seems to have already sharpened their knives (last weeks advertisements on election cases)...it won’t even be a slaughter it will simply be the law being followed when they are barred...
-Finally Uhuruto are not stupid (afterall no fool can pull this ruse) because that would be an act of an imbecile, they have businesses and families and they claim the charges are frivolous so proving their innocence should be their priority. There is no going back after absconding you cannot after 5 years and a lost election say ‘you made a mistake’...the incoming president will gladly hand them over...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 15, 2013 18:12:12 GMT 3
Well that ‘it happens to other people’ mantra just went out the window… I was confirming whether the IEBC has me registered as a voter, you never know so I went to their official link below… vote.iebc.or.ke/I am indeed registered…good…so I decide to take a look at what other tools they have and bump into the RPP membership status link below… www.iebc.or.ke/rpp/Lo and behold! my names are right there as a member of TNA!!! The irony makes me speechless
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 14, 2013 20:40:25 GMT 3
Factors to consider before voting for somebody, in Kenya? 1. Tribe 2. Tribe 3. Tribe Lets us not cheat ourselves. All the others are academic. Is it by coincidence that over 90% of the youth (who are supposed to be non-tribal) in Central are supporting Uhuru while a similar percentage from Nyanza are supporting Raila? Even professionals reasoning and support is depended on where they come from. If it was about issues. we could have had support spread evenly or to something like 60% to 40% basis. Kenya has a long way to go before issues will be the main determinants of an election. That is indeed true...but why? Why Tribe? What was the cause of this Tribal loyalty in our politics? After all there is nothing special about Kamba, Kalenjin, Gikuyu e.t.c compared to the equivalents in Tanzania, Botswana or Malawi...aren’t we all Africans? Yeah I know it’s not that simple, Indulge me for a second...IMO it all starts in 1952,the emergency period in Central Kenya where the ‘natives’ were brutalized & families destroyed in a eight year campaign. That’s the beginning...the Victims become the tormentors typically but in this case it was not the actual victims but the victims ‘cousins’ predominantly Homegaurds who made the Majority of Kenyatta’s inner sanctum of power, people who felt they suffered the most under Colonialism and now it was only right they enjoy the fruits of power by themselves. They were the first to drink from the poisoned chalice, the first to form a strong political core based on victimhood. Once Kenyatta fell off with Jaramogi the ideological differences manifest in ‘real’ differences where the Central government policy becomes ‘Tribalistic’ and the Luo are the second ‘victims’ banished out of power & to the Periphery long into Moi’s rein and the advent of Mulitpartyism.They formed the second tribal political force based on victimhood. The Kalenjin though is slightly different whereby power fell to them on a silver platter, they did not form a political force but were Sheparded by Moi .With the advent of Multipatisym they still stuck with Moi but not with the conviction of ‘victimhood’ which is a much stronger force. Come 2002 they felt the effects of being out of power (some were sacked very harshly) they formed the third political force based on ‘victimhood’ culminating in the 2007 PEV. This ‘victimhood’ is what drives our politics and it’s the reason why the Gikuyu, Luo &Kalenjin are politically the strongest tribal blocks & have the greatest impetus to vote. The Kamba & Luhya & the rest of the tribes are ‘forced’ to react to this thus their relative ‘weakness’ especially the Luhya,they do not have a strong political reason to organise unless its cultural. Fear is a great motivator and it is what drove us into this Tribal madness. The Luhya might well become the fourth ethnicity to drink from the poisoned Chalice thanks to Mudavadi’s betrayal by Jubilee, we can already see the unification of Western in Amani. But Tribal politics I believe it’s on its last legs(relatively), once the constitution requirements are implemented (we already see it in the Judiciary) and the cake is shared (appointments in Civil Service & Parastatals),people start paying attention to their Job descriptions, the Presidency begins to lose its Lustre, political talk becomes less important,MP’s cease to be ‘important’ and issue based politics begins to be appreciated. It will come to pass....
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 13, 2013 21:15:56 GMT 3
My choice is guided by two criteria:
1.I do not like our politics,it is based on Tribe & it is a self-defeating no matter how you look at it but I'm not apathetic, I have to participate. The way it is currently playing out & god forbid maybe in the next 10-20 years its either a Gikuyu president or the alternative the so called 41 vs 1 scenario for a non Gikuyu presidential winner,make no mistake about it even if Raila wasn't running those fundamentals remain the same.I cannot blame the 90% voter registration turnout in Kutus nor the 35% one in West Pokot for performing or not performing their civic duty..it is what it is...
2.The main contenders are both wanting,I can't vote for jubilee because they have made it very simple for me,they have the ICC cases but they don't seem to have noticed.CORD on the other hand is more palatable but I have serious doubts about whether they will keep us moving ahead or voting for them simply because they are the lesser evil(or non Gema).
So I'm left with PK,Karua & Ole Kiyapi. PK trumps both of them on many levels & I will vote for him.I wont vote in the Runoff should it be Jubilee vs CORD...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 11, 2013 17:52:16 GMT 3
www.theafricareport.com/news-analysis/kenyas-tana-delta-burning.html#ixzz2Hfrz3Za8The above link has some great insight on the cause of the conflict,the following words by a local pretty much sums up OO’s link and the other one by Podp on the Tana killings…. Hashaqa recalls a visit by President Mwai Kibaki just before Christmas 2006. He arrived in the area to open a new road and declared that the Delta would be used to develop sugar projects. That infuriated the pastoralists and an angry mob gathered around Kibaki. Since then there has been a succession of land deals in the Delta. These include: the Mumias Sugar Company-TARDA sugar project (31,000ha); the Australian Bedford Biofuels deal (93,000ha) and the UK's G4 Industries (24,000ha); single private investors such as Galole Horticulture and Mat International (70,000ha); Australian titanium mining company Base Resources (who bought Tiomin out of its Kwale project); and rice and other projects fronted by the Qatari government. Hashaqa links these deals to the violence: "The government actually created this animosity. The animosity then degenerated into violence. When you displace us pastoralists from the Delta, where will we go? This is our home."Also this old thread about the sale of land in the Tana Delta to Qataris in exchange for finanincing of the Lamu Port is telling…it was a sign of things to come...indeed a fire sale! jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=print&thread=2859
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 11, 2013 12:55:01 GMT 3
Good Article... What hits home is contingency point #4... The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) will be unable to prepare for the elections so that Kenyans can go to the polls with confidence. Due to delays in the procurement of required equipment and technical issues, the commission completed voter registration two months behind schedule. Moreover, the commission registered only 14.4 million, or 69 percent, of the more than 21 million Kenyans eligible to vote. The IEBC also faces major challenges with respect to the recruitment and training of up to 120,000 temporary workers to staff 29,000 to 40,000 polling stations, and the procurement and distribution of essential supplies such as ballots and ballot boxes. The IEBC is also responsible for educating voters on what will be a complex ballot, since Kenyans will be voting for six offices for the first time. Most important, the commission must address the principal failure of the 2007 elections by carrying out an accurate transmission and tabulation of the votes from thousands of polling stations to its results reporting center in Nairobi and by making a timely announcement of the results. Any further delays or missteps in meeting these challenges could force a postponement and/or undermine the legitimacy of the elections. Unfortunately, personal disagreements between the chair and the chief operating officer of the IEBC have also compounded its problems.Most folks don’t even know how many elective positions will be available…IEBC is beginning to look like its Dodo predecessor ECK…it will take a considerably longer time to cast a vote and without adequate preparation I see it taking a voter twice the time to cast a ballot compared to the last election (with the same time constraints)…the postponement they talk about above is a very real scenario… They also seem to have resigned to Uhuruto pulling a Bashir …
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 11, 2013 12:24:06 GMT 3
Without mincing any words, It's true that the numbers are not adding up for CORD. I mean that's very true. A huge part of Nairobi, RV and the whole of Central are all Jubilee zones. Whereas Nyanza is ODM, a sizable chunk belong to Jubilee (Kisii). Eastern is also not reliable for CORD. Kalonzo is shaky and most CORD members forget that Kalonzo will not be in the ballot as a president. A factor that made him get the numbers he got last time. Give or take, he will loose and not gain votes from Eastern. Western is divided but I still think CORD has a greater shot here, i believe Jubilee will be shocked on how good CORD will perform here. But still it's a partly 1.4M and Luyiahs are known for their lethargic moves and apathy to the ballot. Very unreliable. But there is something still that Jubilee has to contend with ... ICC. They will WIN elections but they will have to lead Kenya from the Netherlands. Soma hapaA rough calculation shows [that] the trials ... could go on for a cumulative period of more than three years. This however would be possible only if everything fits into timelines estimated by the ICC prosecution. (In other words it's either 3 years or more)
What complicates the cases touching on Uhuru, ... and Ruto, ... is the fact that whether in the run-off stage, or in victory at whatever stage of the election, they would be required to be physically present in the Maanweg Street address at The Hague
BUT...
Ironically both Uhuru and Ruto are banking on the fact that the cases will be heard by one Chamber, as a way to enable them run the country, should they be elected in March.(WOW!) If you think this is just a Raila strategy, think again and pray for Kenya. All we need is peace and prosperity. It's unfortunate that when faced with the possibility of winning an election, a serious issue like the ICC rears its head on them. The reason why they chased Mudavadi is beyond me and Mudavadi knows this fact ... did I read somewhere that he's not named his VP yet? Tafakari hayo wapendwa. The only other way out I see Uhuruto enjoying their WIN will be if they do a Bashir on ICC. But the ramifications of such a move will be horrible. Kenya depends too much on the outside world. If anyone thinks otherwise, ask Mugabe; he had to chop off three zeros on his currency, that is, Z$ 1,000,000 became the new Z$ 1,000 (ouch!). I just can't imagine that happening to our beloved newly mint, portraitless currencies. It's true Jubilee is way ahead and will definitely WIN (let's not lie to ourselves, these folks have the numbers). To all Jubilee supporters, please put those champagne bottles away for a while and think of your country, how do you think your men will govern Kenya? I'd rather you pick someone else. Brace yourselves folks and wish Kenya the best. Doyiengs, That the forthcoming election has already been won by jubilee is not debatable. The only outcome we are waiting for is the margin of defeat, which I believe is in double digits not unless Musalia works harder than we know him to work. Now, as regards the ICC, this is one issue we have exhaustively dealt with here and no one except Otish, the lonely voice for what Magutt refers to as the house negros, pays attention to it anymore. If ICC is the kind of court we have been told it is, then they would know that the voice of the people is the voice of God and would respect Kenyans' decision. Probably after this, proper investigations will take place and the new government will take action. We Mwalimu wacha Mutusi...kwani? You think just because Uhuruto have the numbers (most from 4% of our 42 tribes) they are God’s gift to Kenyans? Hitler too had the numbers...he too was given an even larger mandate than this slithering duo can ever expect to get.... If being for the ICC makes one a House Negro consider me one too...the kind that says ‘we sick master’...Magut must have watched Malcolm X last week, what a joke equating those terms to Kenyan polictics, no comparison whatsoever, he has the makings of a Moses Kuria... The ICC will respect Kenyans decision alright...they after all sent the cases to The Hague.
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 10, 2013 10:33:26 GMT 3
We don't need foreign interference we can conduct these trials ourselves! These Europeans want to colonize us etc etc. ...Oh wait, what is this video from February 2009? Envoys From The UK, Germany And US Support Local Tribunal.
Hmmm... I found another one. EU: The Hague should be the last option
;D Good one...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 10, 2013 9:58:22 GMT 3
After reading job’s post it makes more sense now when you see Waiganjo’s legal team (ICC suspect like) and the ease with which he posted that 4M bond...the real question is why is he still alive?perharps because this cartel was not sanctioned at the very top, the new IG may have something to do with its unmasking... I was watching the news last night and their was a story about 11 Elephants found dead their heads chopped off (including a Tusk-less infant) in the Tsavo...how exactly does that happen without KWS/Police facilitation? Well it doesn’t...knowing the terrain, having trucks to transport the loot, going undetected e.t.c. it’s obviously an inside job...it looks like cartels/Ngoroko’s exist everywhere... Kibaki is waking up when its too late...you cannot sleepwalk through a job & be shocked with the end result...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 2, 2013 19:49:40 GMT 3
Thanks@Abdulmote for your words and this nice thread...
Happy new Year to all Jukwaa!!!!
To a great year and a peaceful election...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 2, 2013 19:27:54 GMT 3
Based on the recently concluded IEBC registration exercise, and statistics on recent historic voting patterns regarding voter turnout, the following analysis has been made. It's arguably conservative and gives Raila's CORD lots of leeway in the form of high victory margin in areas considered swing regions or non-core areas for either Jubilee or CORD. The predicted or projected result based on these statistics? A round one victory nonetheless for Jubilee. Anyone see how it could all play out differently? See story here: www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-100887/jubilee-predicts-uhuru-win-52-centThe moment Uhuruto united to form Jubilee I have always seen their union, self serving as it is a winning one come March 4th because it’s always been about tribal math with our elections and it’s not about to Change ESPECIALLY with the ICC cases hovering over Uhuruto... Looking at those Jubilee numbers what strikes me is a whooping 800,000 vote victory for Jubilee over CORD...So I took a closer look at how they came up with their numbers...well...it’s hard to argue with them in regard to who will ultimately win but the difference in the numbers between CORD & Jubilee is where some ‘cooking’ took place... The vote rich Western province and Nairobi are apportioned a 60% and 52% turnout figure respectively, given that Nairobi led all voter registration counties with 123% (~1.8M) it’s safe to assume their will be a lot of CORD votes their probably more than Jubilee given that many voters stayed put and more precisely this time around the ward you registered in is where you will vote. Also thanks to the shafting Mudavadi received at the hands of Jubilee virtually all Western votes will be CORDS (they factored in this) & they will be more motivated than ever to vote (they never factored this in) that 60% will be closer to 75%. Other than Nairobi and Western they obviously know who is paying their check so a padding here and a padding there sufficed especially on Ruto’s numbers but ultimately not too significant.Incase some are still in doubt of the outcome ponder this the registered voters for Muranga and Kiambu Counties alone are over 1.3M with a guaranteed 1M showing up on election day (10% of the entire country!)... I did some cooking of my own to see how CORD can win but the only way is eating through the Kalenjin Vote (at least 40-45%) and maybe the Meru vote (20%) and that was after bathing in Orange water while drinking Orange juice and eating an Orange at the same time...maajabu ya Musa hata 80% turnout in ODM zones lakini Wapi.... Obviously ICC could/will stop them from vying but after seeing those numbers it’s no surprise why they are so quick to attack Raila/ODM as the forces behind the ICC cases...so near yet sooo far...
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emali
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Post by emali on Dec 24, 2012 13:04:25 GMT 3
There seems to be more than meets the eye in Tana River…
You can’t quite get the full story that makes sense…Mugantana is busy singing songs, who knows maybe his legal troubles disappeared since he ditched Karua while his constituents are killing themselves with ruthless efficiency…
This is how the land clashes started in Rift valley…out of the blue…is it NSIS?,oil,lax security, some other hidden agenda…I don’t know but it’s not been handled with the seriousness it deserves…
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