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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 16, 2011 7:32:49 GMT 3
I agree with Mwiria, The G-7 alliance's only goal is to humble Raila and they will only achieve this if they agree to front one of them. Otherwise, Tinga cannot be downed that easily.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 16, 2011 5:27:00 GMT 3
To Mzee, I get more hits on my blog from other boards and sources so I am in no way advertising my blog. besides, I dont gain anything, its free and no advertisements are on it.
To Phil,
First, I am not emotional, this analysis show no emotions to any of the candidates.
Secondly, the Kenyan political machination have it that when in need, a candidate will forget his 'ideals' and take a position that would ultimately give him an edge over his opponents or till he gains what he wants (example, Raila joining Kanu a few years leading to the 2002 elections, Uhuru, abandoning his KANU colleagues in ODM to 'save' his butt in Gatundu and avoid a Kikuyu revolt against him, Kalonzo, miraculously sanctifying the 2007 stolen election in a bid to gain his VP post, e.t.c) Tuju is no different, if the G-7 offer him their mantle, he will be singing at the top of his voice on how diverse the group is which it is anyway. I repeat, the G-7 alliance is not a tribalistic alliance, its a conglomerate of tribal chiefdoms with a common course: preventing Raila from gaining state house and if it takes rallying behind Tuju to achieve this, they will do it if they cannot do it on their own.
Fourth, there will be no run-off on my scenario as Tuju will beat Tinga outright.
I am not supporting any presidential candidate, I am merely analyzing the current situation and from my analyses, I am deriving the most probable happening that we may see. You may think that peripheral candidates like Martha, Muite, Wetangula are for ODM, well be it, the question is what role will they play in ODM and how many votes do you think they will add to the Odinga Camp? Do you think Martha will pull even a third of central votes to the Odinga camp? Remember Nyaga in the last elections. Did Raila even get 10% of Nyaga's constituency presidential votes? Do you think Muite is a political heavyweight recognized in central? How much influence does he have amongst central legislatures? Wetangula, does he even have a following in western? How about Ngilu? Further, do you think Raila is going to trade posts with them and replace some of his stalwart team players like Mudavadi? I doubt. And these so called peripheral candidates will not accept to join his bandwagon with no substantial goodies.
Yes, Tuju can get the 25 % threshold in 23 counties if all the other G-7 alliance members rally behind him. If you read carefully, I have stated that this scenario will occur if Martha is also in the race whereby she will most likely claw the central vote.
Lastly, Raila is not unbeatable and you can be rest assured that if the G-7 alliance fronts Tuju, this will occur. Further, I have not compared PNU with ODM herein so leave it out of question.
Do not look at Tuju's candidature from his face value, bear in mind that a large number of legislatures within the G-7 fabric have one goal; beat Raila and if it takes all rallying behind Tuju, they will do it.
To Kipfirimbi, Just because Ruto states that he will be in the ballot box, does not mean he will be in the ballot box. This is one of the many strategies that the G-7 alliance is using to disguise their ultimate plan. Remember, even Eugene (David) has vowed to floor Goliath (Raila) but we all know that it will be highly unlikely that he will view for presidency.
In all, lets remember that so far, we can only be certain of one presidential candidate- Tinga, his opponent(s) are still unknown as they are still planning on the best way possible to down him.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 6:20:37 GMT 3
Stop hating, stop bleating. Read the title again.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 5:55:08 GMT 3
wacha kulia, lower your tone. A title is a title.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 15, 2011 5:40:51 GMT 3
I know most of you think this is a crazy idea that is unlikely to happen but the way things are going, it might be the only scenario come 2012 especially now that UK and WSR's cases are going on. Lets look at the current political scenario in Kenya and analyze it briefly. Be patient, take your time and try to tie up different indicators of this happening as outlined below.
Currently, we have two opposite forces that would wish to succeed Kibaki ; ODM and the G-7 alliance. Both have leaders that could potentially offer powerful presidential contenders with Raila being the most probable ODM candidate while the latter group is still being fabricated with no clear head to run against Raila. As this alliance grapples with modalities of selecting their point-man, other notable hopefuls like Martha Karua and Raphael Tuju are busy building their teams and strategies of garnering the post.
We already know why G-7 is struggling to stay afloat; stop Raila from attaining presidency. That is their main and perhaps only agenda and the sooner we Kenyans realize this, the more you will agree with me that a probable Tuju vs. Raila duel is on the way. Looking at the group whose main heavyweights are Ruto and Uhuru from a voting blocks point of view, it is clear from a narrow point of perspective that the battle royale for the G-7 ticket will be between these two as the other members do not have a near complete tribal 'kingpinship' and votes to beat the duo, if I may put it that way. For example, Eugene Wamwala, a possible frontrunner does not have a considerable following in his western homecourt. Same as ZIPAPA at the cost and Magara in Kisii. Kalonzo Musyoka can easily garner all Ukambani votes, but the block is not at large as UK or WSR's, so in a race against the latter two, he will most likely be third. Note that in the current G-7 fabric, a key requirement for their success would be to garner significant votes from central and the rift valley while the other regions could just fill in the threshold votes as required by the constitution.
Therefore, the choice of their flag bearer will be dependent on their appeal to the two voting blocks. Judging from the last general elections, the Kalenjin community can support one who is not their own, but since independence, Kikuyus, cannot be dissuaded to vote for an outsider en mass. Therefore, the alliance may most likely opt for someone other that Ruto given that with Ruto's support, the large Kalenjin vote would be easily bagged.
On the other hand, with ICC cases occupying UK and WSR's minds, it is likely that they will opt out of the big ticket more so due to the fact that since independence, Kenya has only been ruled by either Kikuyus or a Kalenjin and I believe that in the minds of the other alliance members, they would not want to let this 'toss-up' presidency continue. Therefore, it is highly likely that they would withdraw their support would this happen. It is also clear that non of these leaders have a widespread following throughout the country as they are perceived to be mere tribal kingpins hence cannot win an election on their own.
However, it is also likely that UK and WSR will make a deal on their own to support either of them and given that they possess large voting blocks, either of them can easily garner the ticket. This could be challenging though given that they may not have the threshold votes across as constitutionally required to gain presidency. However, if they hoodwink the other members of the alliance to deliver a few votes here and their from their respective blocks, they can succeed. I am seeing this being the most probable approach that UK and WSR will opt for if they choose to have such a deal. This is perhaps why they are keen on selecting regional kingpins who are more likely to deliver the largest number of votes as opposed to being mere ideologically similar. Already, there are talks of replacing Magara with Ongeri as the former does not have a considerable following in his home turf. However, Ongeri too has no influence in the larger Kisii community. Infact, he has never retained his constituency seat. He almost always alternates with Hezron Manduku after every 5 years.
It is already clear that Kalonzo would rather have his colleagues hand him the ticket rather than going through primaries, a sign that he already knows that he cannot be a ticket bearer based on numbers alone. Although Eugene could be a more likable candidate, the other members of G-7 are not ready to hand him the ticket as he is considered politically naive. The other members of the alliance are not likely to be considered for the post.
In case, Martha decides to go it alone, the G-7 alliance may not wish to field any other person other than UK so as to at least get the Kikuyu block and this will basically hand over the presidency to Raila. Further, handing UK the ticket could spell doom to the alliance as no sound non- Kikuyu would wish to have another Kikuyu president take over right after another. So UK is out of the picture in a scenario where Martha runs. If Ruto on the other hand is the the touch bearer, then he will likely lose the kikuyu vote to Martha as house of Mumbi will not vote for an outsider. This will be a precarious position that the alliance does not want to happen as it may hand over the leadership to Raila. The same scenario will occur if Kalonzo or Eugene are the presidential candidates. In short, the greatest headache amongst the alliance members is the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential results given that non of them for certain can win the election under the present political situation. They may have assembled perhaps the biggest voting block but, they cannot be 100 % certain of a presidential win against Raila and it is my believe that they do not want to take any risks. They are therefore obliged to select a leader who has a greatest change of beating Raila with no uncertainty at all costs.
Now enter Raphael Tuju. Kenyans may have been hoodwinked by the media to believe that Tuju is being fronted by Kibaki to slice the Luo vote come 2012 so that the G-7 alliance can find it easy to win the elections. I want to state that we all know, including Tuju himself that this will not happen. From past elections, the lakeside vote will only go where the Oginga clan decides and the scenario is unlikely to change. The real reason why Tuju is in the race is one - To get the G-7 ticket. Kikuyus hate Raila to the letter. Same as the Kalenjins. Some sections of Luhya legislatures believe that Raila is taking them for a ride, Kalonzo thinks Raila prevented his miracle presidency, former president and particularly the Kanu diehards believe that if Raila ascends to state house, an ensuing revenge mission will occur. The list goes on an on.
The only chance and only option that the alliance will have that can beat Tinga is to have only Tuju and no other candidate within the group go against Raila. Even if Martha was to run, Tuju will most likely get all other votes other than Luo Nyanza, Central and part of Nairobi. This is the only certain route to preventing a Tinga presidency and perhaps the death of the Odinga dynasty in the Kenyan political scene. It will also be a clear point to the Luo community that the G-7 alliance are not against them, but against the Odinga dominance in the Luo politics.
It is my believe that this strategy is already being worked on by the alliance and in the next few months, it will come into fruition. If it does, Kenyans, would perhaps be subjected to the most exhilarating election come 2012. By subsaharanite. (subsaharan.worpress.com)
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 9, 2011 22:25:40 GMT 3
It seems like the defense team of Ocampo six seem to be changing their strategies from time to time with no tangible or pragmatic approach in their respective cases. Remember after Ruto's witnesses testified, Kosgei changed tune, he withdrew his witnesses and decided to let his counsel defend him. Now Uhuru's request for more time seems to be borne out of the need to establish whether charges brought against Ruto, Kosgei and Sang will be confirmed. Notice, he has cleverly but obviously selected his case to be pushed forward well after the pre-trial chamber makes a ruling on the formers' cases. It is not necessarily due to the fact that Ocampo has increased his charge list, its purely a matter of waiting and seeing what will happen to his three colleagues.
Muthaura's counsels on the other hand having listened carefully to the proceedings of his three colleagues have decided that it could be prudent to present his own defense from his own point of view given that Ocampo's charge sheet has separate charges on each of the accused persons. If Muthaura's group feel that they have a chance to convince the pre-trial chamber otherwise, they should go it alone.
One thing however that may result from this disjointed approach is a possibility of cross- incrimination amongst the accused persons. If this happens, hell will be let lose as each will struggle to exonerate themselves by nailing others. Unlike the former case where more or less one solid and similar story was repeated by Ruto, Kosgei and Sang's defense, Uhuru, Muthaura and Ali's disjointed approach may result in more beans being spilled, a phenomena that could either lead to more individuals being enjoined in the case or the 'real truth' of what conspired in those days coming out. Non-the less, at this point, its seems everyone is for themselves and God for us all.- Good lucky fellows, Maybe you will be subjected to real justice, unlike what we see in Kenyan theatrical courtrooms. Read more at subsaharan.wordpress.com
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 6, 2011 21:16:02 GMT 3
Kenyans should first of all try to understand the reason why G-7 alliance was formed. Its a very selfish one. Its only purpose was and still is, to prevent Raila from gaining presidency. If you look at their meetings, you can easily tell that people like Eugene are there without knowing really what their positions are. He looks like a lost sheep, like a wannabe who wants to hang out with people perceived to be ‘great leaders’. He will never deliver the western vote as he is perceived as a man riding on his late brother’s name. The western voters always vote by their hearts, not by kin.
Kalonzo on the other hand is playing safe. He wants to have something for himself come 2012. If he cannot be handed presidency, he wants to matter in the next government. On the other hand, he may want to repay Raila what he outrightly denied him in 07 so that he vindicates himself. All in all, he just wants to be a de-facto force in the next elections. ZIPAPA, has little value to the group as he does not have a substantial control of the coastal votes. Omingo Magara is even worse has he does not even have a mandate from his own people. He is despised by other Kisii leaders. Despite the fact that PNU got some votes in Kisii, its is widely known that those were stolen votes, Kisii is squarely an ODM region. Kiraitu Murungi, has a substantial value to the group. His Meru and Embu votes almost always go to the Kikuyu. However, there are clear divisions amongst his people right now as some of them feel like he is only favoring his constituency.
Uhuru on the other hand is just riding on pressure that his people are exerting on him. Kikuyus have enjoyed great prosperity in the last ten 8 years that Kibaki has been their leader, so they want the status quo to remain. They know that over 30 percent of the civil service is composed of their kin and if a regime that does not include them in the next government takes over, they may lose these positions. Some ministries are almost entirely ran by them. So they are pushing Uhuru into the alliance such that even if he is not chosen as the flag bearer, he will be an ally of the chosen one. Ruto on the other hand is just trying to build a name on himself with an assumption that the Kalenjin community is all united under him. He is also simply trying to emulate his nemesis, Raila, only 10 years later. Remember Raila took on former president Moi, destroying Kanu and rewarding Kibaki with presidency.
Non of these people are really interested in good governance. If they were, they could have instructed the MPs they control to stand by bills that were prepared by experts that touch on important issues like the antigraft commission that they recently changed. They should have instructed them to pay their taxes instead of arm twisting the treasury to reallocate money meant for emergency services and hiring additional teachers to cover their taxes. They thus cannot run their own parties, non of them can run a government either. Right now, this alliance is trying to stay afloat, but I think they are already falling apart. In the next few days, we will begin seeing underground dealings that would see either some of them leaving or some their colleagues taking positions that would enable them regain their parliamentary seats that are under threat.
The main challenge that these group has is finding a viable ideology and identity other than portraying Raila as a bad person. All they have done is to identify the enemy, they need to come up with ideas that can sell to the common people. On other reason why I feel the G-7 alliance will fail is that if they choose either Ruto or Uhuru, the other leaders will feel used. There will be a feeling of a ping-pong or toss-up presidency whereby only kikuyu and kalenjins monopolize top leadership in this country. The electorate already knows this and if it turns out that this is the case, the other members of the G-7 alliance may turn their back on the alliance. I believe, the alliance already know this, and if it were to survive, the presidential candidate is not likely to be either Ruto or Uhuru. Kalanzo has a checkered past which may also not go well with the others. The rest stand a good chance of obtaining the ticket. The question is, who will be the most probable one?
If you observe current events within the larger PNU party, you can sense that people like Martha Karua do not want to give up their presidential ambitions because she understands that some kikuyus will not vote for non kikuyus. So she may get these votes and use them to bargain for a good position after the elections
Otherwise, kenyans should be ready for a tossup presidency in which the two major tribes play a never ending leadership ping-pong game while the others just speculate and watch election after election. I also bog at subsaharan.wordpress.com
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 6, 2011 0:19:13 GMT 3
Kamalet,
I will not be trapped into your narrow mind that I repeat is aligned to your fellow ethnic group. My arguments are based on facts and come judgement day, I will not be surprised if these judges confirm the charges. Ruto's witnesses were brought in order to disapprove Ocampo's arguments. It was their burden to present substantial facts which were subject to corroboration. If not, their 'facts' would amount to hearsay. Ocampo's team will later have to corroborate their arguments when the full trial takes place if at all this happens.
To you Mwalimu mtukutu mkuu, I am not a follower of Railalet, I am a subsananite.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 5, 2011 17:28:54 GMT 3
Mr Kamalet. Like your fellow tribesmate, you seem not to have any idea how the law works when its followed to the letter. You have have obviously been obsessed by the favorable verdicts being portrayed in the Kenyan Media on this issue. The truth is, you should spend more time on analyses put forward by other reporters who are not necessarily on Kenya's or in particular, Ruto's side, You should ask yourself why Henry Kosgei did not wish to include witnesses in his defense at this time instead chose to only use his lawyers.
Mr Kamalet, witnesses are laymen who lawyers can easily dismiss of in the court of law if they are not talking the truth. You may have mounted a perfect defense and alibi in front of the court but as soon as you start stating that you cannot remember whom you were with at the day you claim you were not attending Ruto's meeting's, as Mr Cheramboss said, it beats logic that you can remember that you were not attending Ruto's meeting and yet 'refuse' to remember where you were. How can one remember where they werent and whom they were not with yet not remember where they were?
Lets be pragmatic, Ruto might be telling the truth but in a court of law, you have to corroborate your 'truth'. If Ocampo corroborates his arguments, then I am pretty sure he will have his way.
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 5, 2011 4:33:02 GMT 3
Where he sees optimism, I see a lot of pessimism
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Post by subsaharanite on Sept 5, 2011 0:25:18 GMT 3
I have had a brief look at the events taking place at the Hague from both print and electronic media and I have noticed naive and grave mistakes Ruto, his defense counsels and witnesses are making that may eventually cost him his 'innocence'. Unlike the Kenyan law courts where people are judged according to the size of their pockets, the Hague is a different ball game and in particular, statements made in and out of court by both the defense and Ruto himself exhibit gross naivete in their part.
For one, if you know you have sufficient evidence to exonerate yourself from the charges against you, do not run to the media and bear it all, by doing so as Ruto has been doing throughout, he presents the Ocampo group an advantage of knowing what they are against on a silver platter. The Ocampo team therefore thoroughly prepares their evidence to counter Rutos. It must be noted that Ocampo has not held any publicity stunts to chest thump himself on how he is going to prove Ruto's criminality. He instead talked vaguely of what he will be charging him with then kept a distance from the press. Ruto on the other hand, keeps on preemptively negating Ocampo's allegation on the press that is open to everyone including Ocampo who uses these preemptive and unnecessary statements to prepare his case. Honorouble Ruto, if I were you, I will remain silent on this matter, hold no press conferences, and decist from vindicating myself in the public since your innocence as per now is at the Hague's sole discretion. Do not give Ocampo undeserved weapon to use against you.
Second, Ruto's, witnesses, particularly Cheramboss, seems to believe that if he says he was not where Ocampo said he was (attending meetings at Ruto's home) the court will take it as gospel truth. You can state that a million times but in any court of law, there is something called substantiation. You have to substantiate your statement. If you have no other means of corroborating your statement, say like stating whom you were with at the other place where you were, then your statement is deemed indeterminate since no one can know for sure where you were. You might have been even outside earth, but if you have no corroborative evidence, then the court treats it as hearsay. Ruto, you should have got witnesses who can substantiate and corroborate their claims.
Lastly, his so-called counsel Katwa Kigen made a gross mistake;preparing witness statements. Therefore, the court cannot determine whether the statements were made by the witness or Kigen. This is a major crack to Ruto's defense as it shows that the so-called witnesses are actually stooges who were called to come forward and got coached on what to say. Unless the witnesses are completely illiterate which I believe is not the case, it is imprudent to prepare written statements on their behalf and pass them to a court like the Hague as having been written by them.
Although, the Ruto team is upbeat about their chances of being exonerated, at this point in the case, I must state that he maybe in for a rude shock - There is no substance in your defense. So far, your witnesses have not substantiated their statements. Without this, they bring no value to your defense. If I were Ruto, I will be a deeply worried man and wont be celebrating. Get your defense team to prepare better. Otherwise, Ocampo will have you prepped for the final fry. And Mr Ruto, Keep your mouth shut, the jaws of Hague have a strong grip. You need more than mere cries in front of the press to crack them open before they begin to crush on you. For more on issues affecting Subsaharan Africa, visit my blog at subsaharan.wordpress.com
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