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Post by omundu on Oct 19, 2015 13:41:24 GMT 3
Idi nade My good ol' friend Jakaswanga. Nice that you have kept this post going with a good insight.
Niko mblai kidogo for a while so havnt been able to take part in matters Jukwaa. Hopefully hizi pressure za kazi will go down soon so I can partake in other matters.
THE WITTY BARBARIAN AND THE DIM BARBARIAN
Both super-power men -Putin and Obama--- have missed the historical tide in the Middle East. They give long speeches at the UN, on every subject on Earth, and they dwell endless on the terrorist threat and security deal for the troubled region -ending terrorism, yet the word PALESTINE is outside their vocabulary range.
To fill that gap -Palestine-- in their thinking, their speeches about the middle east are then the disjointed thought patterns of an incoherent korsakov patient. Talking matter, avoiding the word atom.
The day Vladimir Putin will declare that no comprehensive security is possible in the middle east without a permanent solution to the plight of Palestinian nationhood, will be the day he will become a renaissance man. Otherwise all these strategic gimmicks he authors with which he runs rings around the Americans, only make him the wittiest barbarian amongst dimmer barbarians. (dimmer barbarians like Obama, Cameron, Hollande, Abbot, Harper).
That comment above from you captures the power plays in the global sphere quite well. All about interests.
I might add that the US with its military spending at hundreds of billions annually is quite a disappointment. The fact that their Intelligence failed to see the current radicalisation in the middle East smacks of incompetence. The fact that they failed to see Russia's move also should worry them.
However that aside, I think Obama should use this current opportunity handed over to him by Putin as a good excuse to leave Syria. He wont be able to have that again whilst saving face. The middle East has become a quagmire that many hadn't predicted. There is no defined end in sight me thinks. There are a lot of forces at play in Syria; even the US allies as you showed above have got their own selfish interests that the West doesn't share: Turkey has the small Kurdish problem which has also not helped with Syria, Saudi is involved, Iraq etc. The western allied Arab states are divided.
Putin on the other hand, also doesn't have it easy. Iran is in play with its own interests in the region, Hezbollah are also being used to fight on Assads side (who would have thought that an Islam entity like that would ever) and not to forget their problems with Russia and mostly Israel. Now with the added funding and weapons help towards Hezbollah from the East, who knows where that will head in regard to Israel. Then there is the refugee crisis to deal with... has anyone noticed how Russia never gets involved in the humanitarian aspect ?
Lets hope Putin has a plan. Note that Putin is not just going there to prop up (rightfully so) his ally mainly because of Russias bases there. he has also found an arena to display Russias "improved" military might to the World. That's all he cares for thus Jakaswangas use of the Phrase "BARBARIAN" all of them. That's why he used those missiles launched from the Caspian sea vessels to strike targets in Syria that would have been done away with using normal jets. Until now, no one knew Russia had the capabilities almost equal to the US's Tomahawk.
But what is the end game ? What is Putins play ? I am sure everyone will celebrate peace in Syria. How do we get there. Remember that Russias military in Syria is on a very small scale. Not one to really send shivers down the spine of an observant military specialist. It is not on the level of their Afghanistan incursion decades ago. Is it because he is stretched at home with the Ukraine crisis ? Is it because he has learnt lessons from his American counterpart's Iraqi and Afghan debacle ? Just recently Obama extended the stay of the American personell in Afghanistan with reason; No one wants a fresh breeding ground for Isis there. Look at Iraq. The question is, are Putins forces large enough to defeat Isis (though research shows they are not really hitting Isis bases but the moderate Anti Assad forces)or is the game plan to defeat the moderate anti Assad forces leaving Syrians and the World with only two Options; Assad or the Radical IS ?
I digress. Perhaps Putin may not involve ground troops and may let the Iranians deal with that. The Iranian troops surrounding Aleppo certainly prove that's the way it may be going. That also means this strategy was planned months ago. But at what point does Putin show the world success ? What point does he exit ? will he leave troops there for years and get bogged down in Insurgency like America in its adventures ? What about his homefront. What if suicide bombers strike at home ? Is he stretching himself out with two fronts including Eastern Ukraine.
Those are the questions we should all ask in the hope of finding a solution. It is my Opinion that both sides should work together and come up with a political solution. But that doesn't seem likely because America refused to share intelligence and have also refused to cooperate ona mutual bombing strategy. They probably have their reasons but a common ground can be found I think.
The Iran deal is an example of what can happen when both powers work together. I would like to see a world where Russia takes initiative in Such Matters and also takes the initiative in humanitarian matters e.g the refugee situation.
I am asking Much ? hehehehehehe.
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Post by omundu on Jan 22, 2015 23:30:25 GMT 3
Kwani this main stream media of ours cant even take the initiative and do further research ?
For example, lets look at this from another angle: lets say they cant access the records of who owns the wetson hotel or the supposed grabber of the school grounds from say the lands ministry right ?
The wetson hotel is a finished building meaning the drawings are at the municipality approved.
Normally when an architect does his drawings, he has to send them to the municipality for approval. For approval he needs to provide his regiatration number, company, all the consultants signatures, the clients signature plus the title deed bearing the owners name/names.
Wetson is finished but no construction apart from fencing happened at the school grounds meaning the construction of the parkade was about to happen which further means the drawings with accamponying documents mentioned above were at the council awaiting approval or approved already.
All this info is available to tge public. All it takes is to go to the council with the erf number or address of the site and claim you are a consultant and walaaahhhh. You dont even need proof.
Further, whomever the client is, the architect or engineers know because that is whom they have been dealing with.
If they have been cleaning records... will they forget the above ? Though its a bit harder...
or maybe they are also reading this... hehehehehe.
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Post by omundu on Jan 19, 2015 17:04:45 GMT 3
I second you on that one Kamale.
The cops who did it should be punished. They were even caught on video.
Besides, Ngilu and the Chair of the National Lands Commission confirmed today that the land indeed belongs to the school. The title deed was gotten in 1972. Apparently the land was grabbed in the late eighties.
The picture i saw of a young girl being carried with tears in the eyes is reminiscent of Hector peterson being carried by the sister during the student uprisings in 1976 in south africa.
Can someone post it here. Sisi ni analogue.
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Post by omundu on Jan 19, 2015 11:24:41 GMT 3
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Post by omundu on Jan 18, 2015 11:13:00 GMT 3
Horth! Sir, are you aiming to derail this thread by planting such a hot potato here? I will comb the Internet for more Bible references later. But from the top of my head I know this: This issue of circumcision nearly broke the young Church. The young Christian church, then Headquartered at Antioch. Originally as the Mosaic law sedimented, that circumcision was the covenant between the Jews and their God. Of course in this belief there was and is only one God, so the rest, and these were many, were mere idols worshipped by ''barbarians'' -gentiles. In deed if you were not circumcised, you were outside God's wings and grace in this belief system. However, the Big wide world consisted of lots of folks, gentiles etc, who had other practices than circumcision to ''covenant'' them with their God or gods, idols or not. Meanwhile, circumcision becam Indeed jakaswanga. Our good old folks of yore practiced good neighbourliness. Infact, instead of using culture to look down upon others, they tended to assimilate some practices. I know for a fact that luhyas reaiding closer to the luos also removed six teeth while some from farther west removed about four. We even assimilated tattoos and body cuts on the abdomen from the luos and the kalenjins even copied the body cuts because they deemed our women very beautiful because of the tattoos and cuts. My kukhu still bares those cuts on the face. Moses kuria using the bible as justification for his arguement is the height of ignorance. religion (and not just islam. Christianity has been the worst hiatorically) has been used as justification for the worst forms of bigotry and evil to befall mankind. From the crusades to slavery, fascism, ethnic cleansing, apartheid etc. it works because quoting the bible does not require man to use his faculties to question. You are told to just believe. Have faith. Thats why the kurias of this world use it.
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Post by omundu on Jan 13, 2015 20:32:53 GMT 3
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Post by omundu on Jan 13, 2015 1:02:58 GMT 3
As oloo alluded to in his article, i think the boko haram fiasco we are witnessing is political games being played.
Lets look at it from another angle:
- we know for sure the west has knocked on the government's door as shown by otish only to be ignored so we cant blame them for continued atrocities. And the help offered was enough to strike a death blow to those barbarians - from training,spec ops, radio and satelite tracking, cellphone tracking etc. I mean the whole shabang that was used to find osama and his henchmen.
- The problem is not lack of military capability neither. Most definitely not. A nigerian friend says that his government has,over the years been starving its coup addicted military of vital modern equipment and supplies. He also says that corruption and nepotism has reduced morale. But a quick glance a military websites shows that nigeria still maintains one of the best armies on this continent.
We also remember how they ruthlessly dealt with the biafrans and how ecomog (whose backbone is nigeria with the other countries only being sub battalions) dealt with sierra leone and liberia.
How then can a sub battalion ecomog member like cameroon manage to kill over 100 boko haram thugs who attacked a remote, lightly defended military outpost yet we havnt seen such success from nigeria ?
The answer has to be politics.
Boko Haram are concentrated in the north eastern area of nigeria. It is a predominantly muslim area with the hausa being a majority ethnic group. It is interesting to note that some areas in the northern region have leaders ensuring that sharia law lordes over the constitution.
Historical differencea still exist between the northers and southerners. There was a deal sometime back where it was agreed that state power rotates every two terms between the north and south.
There has been a perception lately amongst the northerners that power has become concentrated in the oil rich south. The yar dua death debacle didnt help matters much.
Enter one mohammed buhari. A muslim and former military ruler from the north. Who remembers his famous clamp downs on corruption during his twenty month reign ?
Before buhari threw his hat into the preaidential ring for the oncoming elections, he was very apologetic to boko haram. In november 2012 he even publicly demanded that the central government stop the clampdown on boko haram and give them special treatment as was given to the niger delta rebels. When government asked boko haram for a "dialogue" boko haram explicitly stated that the only peraon the trust in negotiations in one buhari.
One becomes more suspicious when buhari declares his candidature and there are no attacks but attacks happen and eighty people are killed when jonathan declares his candidacy on november tenth 2014.
A caveat before i go on: i am in no way trying to be a goodluck apologist but below see how the practice above has become standard.
- 26 september 2014. Five governors from pdp ( goodlucks party ) defect to apc (buharis party). No boko haram attacks.
- 14 april 2014. A day before a kano governor defecta from apc to pdp. 80 people get killed a boko haram bomb. He was then asked by apc to cancel the rally.
Has boko haram become to the apc what ira was to sinn fein ?
There could also be a different scenario, a flip side of the coin if you will.
Is the southern dominated government trying to destabilise the north ? Could that explain why jonathan goodluck (ironic name for a current nigerian preaident right ?) Seems aloof and lethargic in responding to the attacks ? Maybe the attacks have been a good excuse for the state of emergencies he has been issuing on the north.
It is interesting that buhari has changed stance recently and has promised to fight boko haram during his campaign tours in the christian south.
Goodluck... goodluck however has not mentioned boko haram in his campaign pledges.
Ponder.
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Post by omundu on Jan 10, 2015 23:05:37 GMT 3
.... Mugo wa kibiru must posses some godly powers ... Come on Person! Don't you know Mugo wa Kibiru has godly powers? That is supposing he's the same prophet of old, reincarnated. He has put forward his own test, now we wait for the revelation of his substance. Hahahaha. Nice one.
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Post by omundu on Jan 10, 2015 13:19:11 GMT 3
My very deepest and sincere condolences to Mr And Mrs Raila Odinga. I respect this family and truly sympathize with their tragedy.. Three Day's ago I read this from one Mugo Wa Kibiru titled "Tell it like it is" According to him "Fidel died of Alcohol overuse and abuse" "Perhaps there were recreational drugs involved, but we are not certain of that, so we wont speculate" Kibiru wrote.. According to him, Fidel Odinga had "without a doubt, drunk one too many" "Remember he got home at around 2AM and had to seek hired drivers to drive his own care to get him home?" Mugo States.. He argues that "In our society, it is expected that kids of the rich live and act as our "role models"... And so... "Whenever they die in circumstances like these, they are packaged as having lived the best lives worth "we the people" emulating... "They are good born again Christians too, who never failed to attend church when they were alive, and as they make their journey to heaven, we must ensure their good names are not tarnished...even when lying in coffins" Then this.... "Fidel was good kid, undoubtedly and there is not a need to prove he wasn't. And this... However, Raila likes to show himself as a trend setter. .. And for that, Mugo stated that he expects that ... "If Fidel died of alcohol abuse, then Raila should come out and "state it as it is" He advised Raila as follows "Don't try to hide things" And why? ..."You will be standing above the pack as the saviour of millions of other youth in the same condition as your beloved now dead son" He continued... "This will be a perfect example to show that the rich also cry, and the social issues bedevilling our country are not just a preserve of the poor" And ... "Raila, this is your time now. And yes, I know your political adversaries will try and milk your honesty for cheap political mileage, but history will judge. I say this... because Raila likes to use the west as his example. So Mugo reminded him of.. Amy Winehouse, Michael Jackson, Whitney Houston etc who all died of substance misuse and that no one try to hide these facts. He classified the Kenyan autopsy processes as.... "All these nonsense that we needed natural light, the results were inconclusive, send samples overseas, get scotland yard etc does not help anyone" He continued... "Perhaps a preliminary report stating unusually high contents of alcohol, were found, but we need to find other toxics if at all any as an abundance of caution would have sufficed. He tried to shed some light with this... "In the 21st Century, there is no need having pathology labs in Kenya, if after a whopping 12 hours we can get even the basics right" And finally... Raila and Ida, this is your moment of truth. Kenyan youth are dying in scores from alcohol. Need I remind you that the youth mostly affected are those of the Kikuyu....Not Luo's. Come out and state no one is perfect. And for a "God Fearing" Nation like Kenya would know not to throw the first stone... They read their divine books where they learn this don't they? Or just do the Western thing and release a press briefing and all will be forgotten. The briefing will read "We are asking members of the public to let us mourn in peace. All matters including the cause of death are very private to us" We will heed your advice. But when Kalonzo comes out and starts drawing a relationship of an alcohol related death like this one to that Mutula (Viagra overdose), Kajwang (Obesity - Hearth Attack) then you make the matter public. "I know my name betrays me, but I felt I needed to say what no one else wants to. ( Mugo Wa Kibiru) www.the-star.co.ke/sections/opinions. ARRTICLE: THE FIDEL ODINGA FEW KENYANS KNEW. Foresight. Happy new year. let us "tell it like it is" to this mugo fella. Preliminary examination (autopsy) of fidels body could not conclusively show what killed him. Mugo wa kibiru must posses some godly powers to know for a fact what is still making trained scientists scratch their heads. Amazing. A more detailed report will be out in about six weeks when the samplea have done the toxicology rounds. Now that is scientific fact based on data and evidence as opposed to old wives tales being spun by mugo by the kitchen fireplace. Now, on claims that he drunk too much and a possible drugs link. Is there any data he can show us that he dru k too much ? Was he there with him everyday of the week ? Is he sure it was copious amounts of alcohol that fidel took ? You know doing things "too much " is relative. I dri k once a week on fridays but family says that is too much. Did the drinking affect his life and work ? My grand father drank almoat everyday after my uncle passed away but he still lived to the ripe old age of eighty. For drugs or alcohol to lead to death there surely should have been vital danger signs way before death. A trained eye can spot vital organs that were unhealthy during the autopsy. We would have know. i believe we should await the reaults instead of resorting to unfounded and unproven theories. now that, my friend, is science and is a fact.
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Post by omundu on Nov 27, 2014 18:04:33 GMT 3
Jakaswanga left ? Let us start operation bring jakaswanga back. Wa mayi. The past few months have been quite busy for some like me. And indeed, there is quite a lot going on world wide that deserves discussion and input from the minds here. I was actually just going through Jukwaa to when i saw this thread so i dont think its dead. Some may even continue lurking occasionally when time allows. Lets see what time brings. hehe Omundu Pure! Yes he did! but waragi is tasting bad in his mouth without Jukwaa to vomit it out, so the beast is beginning a prowling beat, casually for the moment. hehehehehe. Indeed. Maybe when i am in kenya over the festive i can also sample some waragi and spew it here vehemently. Pole sana for the happenings. I hope all ends well.
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Post by omundu on Nov 18, 2014 10:39:32 GMT 3
Jakaswanga left ?
Let us start operation bring jakaswanga back.
Wa mayi. The past few months have been quite busy for some like me. And indeed, there is quite a lot going on world wide that deserves discussion and input from the minds here.
I was actually just going through Jukwaa to when i saw this thread so i dont think its dead. Some may even continue lurking occasionally when time allows.
Lets see what time brings.
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Post by omundu on Sept 3, 2014 20:10:46 GMT 3
Serendipity - when your actions aim for a certain result but you end up getting surprised by a result least expected. That may just be what the separatist commanders got when they aimed their captured Russian BUK missile at a plane expected to flood the news with yet another downed Ukrainian military plane. "But how hard is it to identify friend from foe in a war situation" you ask. Well, military planes have got technology (a radar of sorts) that can only identify friend and others. The only problem with the system comes when a war involves a rag tag outfit not trained to identify small matters like civilian air routes or no proper chain of command to give orders. Here we are now, a down civilian plane, over 200 dead and a developing crisis reminiscent of the lockebie bombing. No one knows how it will end. Not even Putin himself. Rewind back a few from where we left off: Of elections come and gone Of peace dialogues offered and rebuffed. Of merkel and crew threatening with further sanctions. Of the civil war escalating with separatists getting support from mother russia. Of captured BUK missiles from the Overun Ukrainian post. Of several Ukrainian planes shot down. Of passenger jet shot down. Of a bragging tweet from a separatist commander. Of logged phonecalls between the separatists and russian military (I guess the Ukrainian government learnt from the best) Of the Pentagon confirming that the plane was indeed shot down (something about missile radar logs and heat signatures from satellites) I ask again: is Putin in control or is the sand slipping between his fingers. Is he able to again wiggle his way out of this (surely unforeseen circumstance by him in my opinion)like houdini ? Time will tell. Omundu, serendipity you talked of? the situation in the east of the ukraine has taken another turn. And I believe it is out of hand. The EU and USA are ready to consider the request of the ''coup govenrment'' to join NATO. Poland already has been sending equipment and troops. The Russian reaction has been to open a front, to open a land corridor to Krimea. Washington has what she wants: a breakdown in relations between EU and Russia --though not completely because Germany is tight lipped still. France has politically imploded (with the resignation of the barely 5 month old Valls government and the outburst of a civil war within the ruling Socialist party in the midst of an economic downturn). What is obvious, is that for some key players here, serendipity is the word ! Jakaswanga, it thickens. Nato just announced that it is sending troops from 11 member states into ukraine to train their military on trident missiles. We should all just brace for a long cold one. Its now like watching a tennis match with no end in sight. What I meant by serendipity is the situation is out of putin's or nato's hands. No one knows how it will end though either thought they did at thE beginning.
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Post by omundu on Jul 18, 2014 1:14:05 GMT 3
Serendipity - when your actions aim for a certain result but you end up getting surprised by a result least expected. That may just be what the separatist commanders got when they aimed their captured Russian BUK missile at a plane expected to flood the news with yet another downed Ukrainian military plane.
"But how hard is it to identify friend from foe in a war situation" you ask. Well, military planes have got technology (a radar of sorts) that can only identify friend and others. The only problem with the system comes when a war involves a rag tag outfit not trained to identify small matters like civilian air routes or no proper chain of command to give orders.
Here we are now, a down civilian plane, over 200 dead and a developing crisis reminiscent of the lockebie bombing. No one knows how it will end. Not even Putin himself.
Rewind back a few from where we left off:
Of elections come and gone
Of peace dialogues offered and rebuffed.
Of merkel and crew threatening with further sanctions.
Of the civil war escalating with separatists getting support from mother russia.
Of captured BUK missiles from the Overun Ukrainian post.
Of several Ukrainian planes shot down.
Of passenger jet shot down.
Of a bragging tweet from a separatist commander.
Of logged phonecalls between the separatists and russian military (I guess the Ukrainian government learnt from the best)
Of the Pentagon confirming that the plane was indeed shot down (something about missile radar logs and heat signatures from satellites)
I ask again: is Putin in control or is the sand slipping between his fingers. Is he able to again wiggle his way out of this (surely unforeseen circumstance by him in my opinion)like houdini ?
Time will tell.
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Post by omundu on Jul 18, 2014 0:28:43 GMT 3
Kusema na kutender has metamorphosised into :- Ku-claim na ku-deny Kusema na kulia kusema na kukanusha kusema na kusahau kusema na kutender kuomba na kudanganya This is a lost cause they expect a ship wreak. They are using huge resources following RAO and his brigade around while the country is in a mess , no drugs in hospital , no doctors, free primary education has become a very expensive venture ,it was better while kids paid fees, unleashing bombs on lamu people , what a confused govt. Then hearing Governor Mutua sing a misplaced song to the first lady , what a charade? I am dissapointed to being a kenyan . But do not get surprised when the teacher was Moi and the students uhuru and Ruto , then he graduates into a patron and political adviser . we are back to kanu days no denial . Sometimes reading such stuff makes one want to cry.diehard cordists are finding it hard to adjust to the jubilee era.They want to pretend that nothing is functioning in kenya,that the grand collusion was the best thing that happened to kenya.prepare for 2017 and stop whining. Dude This is Jukwaa and not nipate. Stick to the matter of the thread and not diverting the story to cord sijui what ama 2O17. If you want people to wait for that year then what are you doing here discussing matters affecting the country. Just go back into the hole you crawled from and wait for that year you mentioned to practice your definition of democracy. If the letter is fake then why are the suspects mentioned quiet ? If it is actually fake then I shudder more because it shows anything, including title deeds, birth certificates, passports, I'd's etc can easily be faked in this god forsaken country without repercussions. No wonder we are in dire straits security wise. Either way, we are F####ed. The fact that people like you are blind and myopic to that fact is quite amusing.
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Post by omundu on Jun 4, 2014 19:44:53 GMT 3
Just breezed through that nipate site Oloo. I am reminded of a previous life when I was a confused young man surrounded by like minded people. I dated a girl or two that I didn't pick right and that obviously brought problems in my life. I was in a very bad place in life. One day a childhood friend came to visit from a far and only said one thing "wefwe, why are you scrapping the bottom of the barrel in your choice of women and friends ? " I guess that was the begining of my turnaround.
I just glanced through that site and the level of intellect shown in the discussions make me think no should waste their time there. With kids like that, I fee sorry for our future generation.
Anyway, I digress. We first have to realize the complexities of Luhya politics. Ever since Masinde Muliro and to a lesser extent, Wamalwa, the Luhya's have never voted for their "chosen tribal god" en masse. That is due to various factors: as much as many would deny it, we actually vote on issues bigger than tribe. Whoever doubts me can look at the province's past voting record. I shook my head during the last elections when a TNA leaning friend of mine was exasperated asking me why Luhyas don't all vote enmasse for their chosen candidate (Mudavadi). He stated that we would be a major voting force if we could vote en masse for their chosen "Luhya leader" . I told him he doesn't understand the Luhyas. Secondly, we are a conglomerate of sub-tribes; bukusu, maragoli, teso, samia etc. The bukusus think they are the real/chosen luhya. The rest are a watered down version so a leader should come from them. The thinking is slowly dying though.
In light of the above and with a historical perspective, bringing in Wetangula will not guarantee votes for the other side. Wetangula did not bring Luhyas into Cord, it was the other way around and the votes for ODM/ CORD have been growing organically over the last one or two elections. It could be a hard nut to crack.
What I can factually state is that Wetangula and co have increased voter civic education drives in the region. They have even bought motorcycles and boda bodas for aides to go into the villages convincing people to register etc. The next elections may bring a surprise with Luhya votes.
I am also aware that both TNA and URP factions have separately been approaching wetangula for a tete a tete. But his close associates and clansmen rule the roost. They advice otherwise. And we all know why I guess: take a look at recent history on electoral agreements, how have they turned out ?
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Post by omundu on May 23, 2014 0:13:20 GMT 3
Allow me to be vague and not go to the...
Kwani these western judicial systems didn't get our memo on our proud sovereignty ?
We should have even sent amina on a shuttle diplomacy to bring that case home to tanzania or our learned mutunga.
Where is the AU when we need them.
Sound the clarion call my fellows.
In the words of Shakespeare:
"To the breaches my friends. Onwards to the breaches"
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Post by omundu on May 9, 2014 20:13:42 GMT 3
Do you know how many people in the Gauteng branch havnt even been paid in five months ? Do you know how angry most of those BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) tendepreneurs are after being looked down upon by the Zuma click calling them "the clever bright ones don't vote ANC" are ?
I repeat, it is a quagmire.
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Post by omundu on May 9, 2014 20:02:53 GMT 3
To those who want to follow the elections live, there is live streaming from the IEC centre all internet linked to the official tallying as they come out second per second. www.news24.com/elections/live/live-election-results-latest-20140509You can even follow the map and click on whatever polling station or province you want updates from. I hope IEBC is watching how proper elections are conducted.That said, there is an article in Jukwaa a while back where we were discussing Zumas boos during Mandelas funeral. I predicted that ANC would hemorrhage. I also predicted that the battle ground (battle of the bulge) would take place in Gauteng. ANC cannot afford to lose it and the DA knows that that is the next battle ground in Zille's strategy to deny ANC a National win in the next decade. Well, in 2009, ANC had 64% of Gauteng. Currently with 98% of the votes counted, the ANC is sitting at 52% followed by the DA at 33% (a forty percent increase from 2009), the EFF follows in third with about 10%. Anyone with a statistics background knows that this is very bad news for the ruling party going into the future. nationally, the ANC stands to lose its 2/3rds majority. They are losing about 4% Nationally. The shock for me is the DA which has gained over 1.1 million new votes this election cycle with over 700 000 of those from the black population. So i guess that helps in answering Kamale's question. .....and anyone knowing statistics will know what a 62% vote means in an election of a party doing so badly. ANC did not change the constitution with its 66% in the last 5 years. 5 years ago there was Mandela in the picture that is not there now. We could go on and on...but for now ANC has a clear majority. Bwana Kamale. Let's not start down this road. Its a quagmire. I am writing this while sitting with worried ANC branch members in midrand who already have e-mailed mandates from the NEC at Luthuli house (I don't need to divulge more). And the worry is not about we await the next elections to out steal or out perform the other. This is not kenya with our village mentality of "Raila will never be pork hook or crook". You make the mistake of applying kenya's mentality to the rest of the world. This is a place that does not understand that barbaric tribal; eeehhh we will make a plan next time. It is a place in touch with modern systems. The ANC has researches (me included) that does things with policy twenty years down the line and they do realize that their policies in Gauteng this past five years has made them lose over eleven percent in the most important economic province in africa. If you cannot understand how losing Gauteng will sound the death knell of ANC Nationally, then I think you are wasting our brain cells trying to explain to you. If you also don't understand the aspect of time in all this then my previous sentence still applies. Why do people have to explain things to you like you are a child ? I am here with very worried people. I can guarantee you that even during the campaigns there was major infighting between the National body and the Gauteng branch who were trying to distance themselves from Zuma. I can guarantee you there will be a major reshuffle in the Gauteng legislature and they are trying to come up with a different policy suiting gauteng (not just delivering houses but press etc so people can see that they are doing work). What if I told you that just because of Gauteng, Zuma (if he continues) may never finnish his five years ? Dude, this is not village politics that you are used to in kenya. It is the big leagues.
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Post by omundu on May 9, 2014 15:31:03 GMT 3
To those who want to follow the elections live, there is live streaming from the IEC centre all internet linked to the official tallying as they come out second per second. www.news24.com/elections/live/live-election-results-latest-20140509You can even follow the map and click on whatever polling station or province you want updates from. I hope IEBC is watching how proper elections are conducted.That said, there is an article in Jukwaa a while back where we were discussing Zumas boos during Mandelas funeral. I predicted that ANC would hemorrhage. I also predicted that the battle ground (battle of the bulge) would take place in Gauteng. ANC cannot afford to lose it and the DA knows that that is the next battle ground in Zille's strategy to deny ANC a National win in the next decade. Well, in 2009, ANC had 64% of Gauteng. Currently with 98% of the votes counted, the ANC is sitting at 52% followed by the DA at 33% (a forty percent increase from 2009), the EFF follows in third with about 10%. Anyone with a statistics background knows that this is very bad news for the ruling party going into the future. nationally, the ANC stands to lose its 2/3rds majority. They are losing about 4% Nationally. The shock for me is the DA which has gained over 1.1 million new votes this election cycle with over 700 000 of those from the black population. So i guess that helps in answering Kamale's question.
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Post by omundu on Apr 25, 2014 21:12:24 GMT 3
For those not familiar with Kennans containment policy and article 'X', here below; history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/kennanI personally think Crimea, and if Putin takes Eastern Ukraine is/will be a phyrric victory for Putin. He has lost a whole lot because he has given NATO/west a perfect excuse to increase its hold in many eastern states. Even western Ukraine is a far gone conclusion. It is worse for him because any civil war or disturbance is just by his borders. They say the markets are a good indication or prediction of trends. Wall street and european stocks are down. Speaks a lot don't it ?
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Post by omundu on Apr 25, 2014 17:40:35 GMT 3
Indeed Jakaswanga.It is getting tense. The goal posts have indeed moved but me thinks the Obama administration is clearly applying an updated version of the cold war strategy used in dealing with the Soviets: CONTAINMENT. They are doing this by: - cutting off Putin's economic and political ties to the outside world:sanctions and more if he dares the Eastern Ukraine. - Limiting Putin's ambitions in Russia's own neighborhood:Increasing military presence in Baltic NATO states, Poland etc - Effectively pushing in making Russia a pariah state:evidenced by Kerry and the CIA director's trips in the region and constant media wars. But as you say, Putin may have BRICS in his calculation. perhaps this current crisis is an attempt from the west to stifle his moves (though i am yet to be convinced of that argument)and he may have calculated that Obama is currently facing a battle-economic in two fronts if China is included. Note that Obama is currently in an Asian power tour visiting about five countries but China. It should be interesting to note that all countries he is visiting happen to have territorial disputes with china... Well... Then there is the new found Trans Atlantic Trade pact with Western Europe that has gained momentum after Putin's shenanigans... And Obama's insistence that the smaller NATO countries increase their military spending (obviously a high level business marketing for the American military complex) What i get from the above developments is that the current world order is undergoing a 'major ?' reshuffling with centers of global power rushing to gain/re-gain or reinforce existing alliances/spheres of influence. However, those spheres of influence are unlike the cold war ones which were heavily based on ideology (Communism vs capitalism). They are ECONOMIC. Thats why we may just be witnessing the birth of a cold war part two albeit with a very different look from the previous cold war. Why ? - Obama's foreign policy approach has always refrained from treating countries as absolute enemies. His "cold war two" policy is/will be different from Harry Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy or Reagan's policy of 'absolute enemy'. Obama tends to separate policy and strategic rivalry from other aspects of international policy where common interests and co-operation might be possible. Thats why i maintain that the world is very different now. We have issues like Nuclear proliferation amongst other common/mutual worries between them/us. - Russia is not USSR. It is not at the head of a vast global alliance currently. Its neighbors are scared of its belligerence because Russia is currently basing it's foreign policy on Nationalist sentiment as opposed to universal principles. This is very different from Soviet era foreign policy and may *emphasis* make it hard for them to gain strong allies. That said, the sabre rattling gets louder: www.dw.de/ukraine-tightens-borders-to-hold-loose-cannons/a-17588616www.dw.de/ukraine-attacks-separatists-in-east/av-17589821www.dw.de/fears-rise-of-war-in-ukraine/av-17591967www.dw.de/moscow-and-kiev-trade-blows/av-17590798www.dw.de/kerry-warns-russia-against-grave-and-expensive-ukraine-mistake/a-17590817
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Post by omundu on Apr 17, 2014 16:32:08 GMT 3
[/img] The Ukrainian crisis has smoked Angela Merkel out. Sandwiched between the formidable thrusts of the bear Vladimir Putin and the hawkish forages of Barrack Obama’s foreign policy as dictated by a marauding neo-con agenda, Merkel has shrunk into a crouched obeisance of the US position, and joined the sabre-rattling of NATO. NATO is mobilising for war, just in case. Divisions have been upgraded in Poland with a 27/7 AWACS air surveillance; minions like Holland and Portugal are sending a pair of F16s and combat choppers respectively to beef up Balkan confidence; and frigates are sailing through the Bosphorus lock into the Black Sea, to go stare down the Russian bases in the Krimea. Within one month of crisis in the Ukraine, this is what Europe has come to. A break down in realations between West and East, a re-invention of the cold-war, and likely a re-kick start of the arms race. I think it is a thoroughly mismaged crisis. Well, a little misunderstanding in the crowded skies, and there will be war. Perhaps a Russian jet straying over an American warship prowling in Bulgarian Waters in the black sea, locked and shot by a shaky gunner? A NATO jet beefing up the nerves of scared Baltic Statesmen spilling over the border with Russia and having itself shot down by a shaky gunner, or perhaps a massacre in the East as Kiev conducts its anti terrorism operation aka LINDA NCHI, incites a harsh retort … Who knows!
Some small spark, some small accidental spark with fire-balling consequences.NB: CIA Director was in Kiev incognito just before the last weekend! It was a weird tale when it broke, but has since been confirmed. There is a bit of amazed fun and jokes. Apparently a CIA head has a code name, like POTUS’s jet is usually known as Aiforce One. But why would the company choose a code this time around which translates into Ukrainian as ‘’dick-head’’? A sense of humour? ---or Russian disinformation! Whatever the case, brother dick-head issued orders to his hirelings in Kiev that they should go tough on the East, possibly to force Putin’s hand. And so the anti-terrorist operation was launched. With comical scenes like the tanks exchanging sides above, and the hungry boys being fed on hot soup by the terrorists before being bussed home. We wait for the crack teams to arrive. The ones who will run over human blockades and restore order over heaps of dead bodies. ---Then, only then, will it be no longer operation dick head. It will be war in the center of Europe. Meanwhile let us enjoy the peace, the good weather, and the comedy. Tomorrow may be different. [/quote] That red highlight. It just may... I am more scared that it may take something as simple as untrained/uncontrolled Ukrainian "fascists"or "right wing" elements deciding to take matters into their own hands and driving eastwards to deal with the Russian spec-ops elements. Now that is guaranteed to ignite something beyond even Putin's control. But maybe that's his plan.
One thing is for certain though, the Ukrainian security forces seem to be falling apart. Some would argue that they are just showing restraint but...
www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2014/04/16/Ukraine-submits-proof-of-Russian-covert-actions/8621397666454/
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Post by omundu on Apr 10, 2014 22:33:05 GMT 3
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Post by omundu on Apr 10, 2014 21:29:15 GMT 3
President Vladimir Putin's Letter to Leaders of European Countries. Full Text Ukraine’s economy in the past several months has been plummeting. Its industrial and construction sectors have also been declining sharply. Its budget deficit is mounting. The condition of its currency system is becoming more and more deplorable. The negative trade balance is accompanied by the flight of capital from the country. Ukraine’s economy is steadfastly heading towards a default, a halt in production and skyrocketing unemployment. Russia and the EU member states are Ukraine’s major trading partners. Proceeding from this, at the Russia-EU Summit at the end of January, we came to an agreement with our European partners to hold consultations on the subject of developing Ukraine’s economy, bearing in mind the interests of Ukraine and our countries while forming integration alliances with Ukraine’s participation. However, all attempts on Russia’s part to begin real consultations failed to produce any results. Instead of consultations, we hear appeals to lower contractual prices on Russian natural gas – prices which are allegedly of a “political” nature. One gets the impression that the European partners want to unilaterally blame Russia for the consequences of Ukraine’s economic crisis. Right from day one of Ukraine’s existence as an independent state, Russia has supported the stability of the Ukrainian economy by supplying it with natural gas at cut-rate prices. In January 2009, with the participation of the then-premier Yulia Tymoshenko, a purchase-and-sale contract on supplying natural gas for the period of 2009-2019 was signed. The contract regulated questions concerning the delivery of and payment for the product, and it also provided guarantees for its uninterrupted transit through the territory of Ukraine. What is more, Russia has been fulfilling the contract according to the letter and spirit of the document. Incidentally, Ukrainian Minister of Fuel and Energy at that time was Yuriy Prodan, who today holds a similar post in Kiev’s government. The total volume of natural gas delivered to Ukraine, as stipulated in the contract during the period of 2009-2014 (first quarter), stands at 147.2 billion cubic meters. Here, I would like to emphasize that the price formula that had been set down in the contract had NOT been altered since that moment. And Ukraine, right up till August 2013, made regular payments for the natural gas in accordance with that formula. However, the fact that after signing that contract, Russia granted Ukraine a whole string of unprecedented privileges and discounts on the price of natural gas, is quite another matter. This applies to the discount stemming from the 2010 Kharkiv Agreement, which was provided as advance payment for the future lease payments for the presence of the (Russian) Black Sea Fleet after 2017. This also refers to discounts on the prices for natural gas purchased by Ukraine’s chemical companies. This also concerns the discount granted in December 2013 for the duration of three months due to the critical state of Ukraine’s economy. Beginning with 2009, the total sum of these discounts stands at 17 billion US dollars. To this, we should add another 18.4 billion US dollars incurred by the Ukrainian side as a minimal take-or-pay fine. In this manner, during the past four years, Russia has been subsidizing Ukraine’s economy by offering slashed natural gas prices worth 35.4 billion US dollars. In addition, in December 2013, Russia granted Ukraine a loan of 3 billion US dollars. These very significant sums were directed towards maintaining the stability and creditability of the Ukrainian economy and preservation of jobs. No other country provided such support except Russia. What about the European partners? Instead of offering Ukraine real support, there is talk about a declaration of intent. There are only promises that are not backed by any real actions. The European Union is using Ukraine’s economy as a source of raw foodstuffs, metal and mineral resources, and at the same time, as a market for selling its highly-processed ready-made commodities (machine engineering and chemicals), thereby creating a deficit in Ukraine’s trade balance amounting to more than 10 billion US dollars. This comes to almost two-thirds of Ukraine’s overall deficit for 2013. To a large extent, the crisis in Ukraine’s economy has been precipitated by the unbalanced trade with the EU member states, and this, in turn has had a sharply negative impact on Ukraine’s fulfillment of its contractual obligations to pay for deliveries of natural gas supplied by Russia. Gazprom neither has intentions except for those stipulated in the 2009 contract nor plans to set any additional conditions. This also concerns the contractual price for natural gas, which is calculated in strict accordance with the agreed formula. However, Russia cannot and should not unilaterally bear the burden of supporting Ukraine’s economy by way of providing discounts and forgiving debts, and in fact, using these subsidies to cover Ukraine’s deficit in its trade with the EU member states. The debt of NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for delivered gas has been growing monthly this year. In November-December 2013 this debt stood at 1.451,5 billion US dollars; in February 2014 it increased by a further 260.3 million and in March by another 526.1 million US dollars. Here I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in March there was still a discount price applied, i.e., 268.5 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. And even at that price, Ukraine did not pay a single dollar. In such conditions, in accordance with Articles 5.15, 5.8 and 5.3 of the contract, Gazprom is compelled to switch over to advance payment for gas delivery, and in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment, will completely or partially cease gas deliveries. In other words, only the volume of natural gas will be delivered to Ukraine as was paid for one month in advance of delivery. Undoubtedly, this is an extreme measure. We fully realize that this increases the risk of siphoning off natural gas passing through Ukraine’s territory and heading to European consumers. We also realize that this may make it difficult for Ukraine to accumulate sufficient gas reserves for use in the autumn and winter period. In order to guarantee uninterrupted transit, it will be necessary, in the nearest future, to supply 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas that will be pumped into Ukraine’s underground storage facilities, and this will require a payment of about 5 billion US dollars. However, the fact that our European partners have unilaterally withdrawn from the concerted efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and even from holding consultations with the Russian side, leaves Russia no alternative. There can be only one way out of the situation that has developed. We believe it is vital to hold, without delay, consultations at the level of ministers of economics, finances and energy in order to work out concerted actions to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and to ensure delivery and transit of Russian natural gas in accordance with the terms and conditions set down in the contract. We must lose no time in beginning to coordinate concrete steps. It is towards this end that we appeal to our European partners. It goes without saying that Russia is prepared to participate in the effort to stabilize and restore Ukraine’s economy. However, not in a unilateral way, but on equal conditions with our European partners. It is also essential to take into account the actual investments, contributions and expenditures that Russia has shouldered by itself alone for such a long time in supporting Ukraine. As we see it, only such an approach would be fair and balanced, and only such an approach can lead to success. en.itar-tass.com/russia/727287Factual, concise and to the point. Now this is the Putin I can respect, away from rhetoric and showing level headedness as a leader. He has shown that it doesn't have to be "us VS them" but working together with a mutual goal. The rhetoric has toned down. Over to you EU.
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Post by omundu on Apr 8, 2014 0:01:59 GMT 3
Omundu, b6k Here is an idea of Putin's end game in the Ukraine. By way of the mouth of Sergei Lavrov, the foreign affairs minister of the Russian federation. voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_29/Only-way-for-Ukraine-to-reach-settlement-is-to-sign-federal-agreement-Lavrov-1757/ The problem is this was the plan agreed and signed by all apart from the USA, before Maidan coup. Yap, The EU, Russia, and the Ukrainian politicians had agreed in a framework to the constitutional reform, aka devolution, the same plan Lavrov was explaining to Kerry. Kerry is grudgingly beginning to realise is his best deal. As Obama has been dithering, held hostage by the war-mongering neo-cons, the situation in East Ukraine has been radicalising, so much so that even the earlier federal autonomy may be a past station. In other words, a referendum may be in the offing which may make the coming elections in Ukraine, be happening in another country! East Ukraine already with its resolution like the Krim {Crimea}. The EU has outruled going to war to reclaim the Crimea for the Ukraine once more. The question is, will the EU as NATO go to war if there is a referendum in East Ukraine, and the result goes the Krim way?The answer should be no, but politicians are human beings of a particularly duplicitous nature, and history is not full of smart decisions by politicians! --And who says Putin is in control of events on the ground? he too could just be a reactor to facts on the ground! Obama does not look like he is on top of the game here, no more than he ever was in the middle east, whether in Egypt, Israel-Palestinian issue, or Syria. He has revved NATO up, intensified military manoevers in the Baltic states, even as he orders Putin to pull off his troops from the eastern border with Ukraine. A Russian defence analyst/official put it thus: This guy is flying his deadly fighter bombers 3 minutes from our vitals [capital], while we are 10,000km from his! and he is giving us orders on what to do at our borders!? That he does not recognise we too have legitimate security concerns, and we could even be more nervous of his fighter-bombers than him of our ICBM’s, makes this conflict susceptible to an escalating dynamic. If we all do not keep cool heads, this thing will blow serious. Obviously the Americans have lost theirs, it is important we keep ours, and our European partners not loose theirs too! NB: The European population overwhelmingly are against war, whether the Russians invade Ukraine in toto! ---But who do their leaders listen to, Washington or them? HOT FROM THE WIRE! Ukrainian City of Donetsk Declare Independencewww.ibtimes.co.uk/crimea-fallout-pro-russian-protesters-eastern-ukrainian-city-donetsk-declare-independence-1443699 Jakaswanga et al. I doubt there is anything more that Obama can do better than he is now. He can only pander to the 'neo-cons' and do a Putin by sending in troops. I think for now the sanctions and threats of further sanctions if eastern ukraine is annexed is all the cards he can play. I also think that the increase in military maneuvers in the eastern Nato countries like Poland serves to assuage their fears and sort of reassures them that NATO will be by their side in case... Putin is going for federalism in the Ukraine but that would have to undergo an internal Ukrainian referendum and not state by state. Will that pass ? Or will Putin still send in his troops to ensure it does. It is not easy on both sides. We also have to ask ourselves whether Putins end game was limited to just Ukraine as a sphere of influence or was/is it also a warning to those others that dare go the Ukraine route towards EU/NATO/US. More like styming the west's expansion eastwards. If the latter, is it working. We have seen the rhetoric coming from the west lately including NATO/EU tightening the screws in countries (eastern) they have a foot in (mutual military games etc), proposing to fasttrack the process it takes to join these bodies and the impending arms race evidenced by Obama's speech in Brussels where he urged the eastern NATO states to increase their military spending. What does this do to Russia's neighbor Iran and the Nuclear negotiations ? Remember they were aiming for the same deal that the US, Russia and some western states signed with Ukrain guaranteeing respect of borders in exchange for their Nukes. I am afraid the ball is neither in Putins or western hands for now. The ramifications are larger than just the Ukraine.
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