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True Phil,

Even the Hard-copy of the Standard ignored this story. They ran the web copy but it did not see the printing press partly because the message had not been played yet and that it came for the PMPS.

I don't think anything will change the Kalenjin's mind. they're a gone case and CORD should forget about their votes. There's no need for these excitements here. Lots of wishful thinkers are wasting their time here.

Uhuru calculated his moves well and he'll get the Kalenjin backing to the last man. Ruto had no option but to play second feedle because his lawyers insisted he had to be on the ballot to have any chance of throwing the spanner into the works at the ICC. He then cleverly convinced his folks to back Ouru when Raila was busy dining with Kibaki trying to please the white man.

That's the bitter truth that most folks here will not want to hear. No need to cheat yourself here that Kichwa cha Ralila na mwili ni Ruto. no need.

One thing for sure is that the Lower Eastern voters aka Makueni , Machakos and Kitui Counties will vote Raila to the last man not because they like him or they like his policies No because they think they will get the Deputy Presidential post same reason why the people of Riftvalley will vote for Uhuru to the last man now also add to the fact that Raila betrayed them and their leaders.

Mugabe or is it Nereah?

If you had been faithfully following jukwaa you could have already known that I have dismissed the cord coalition as a coalition of free loaders with nothing that would pull Raila from the hole that he dug himself in. Watch this space.

Why Ruto will be a major player in 2012
By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, September 11 2010 at 11:47

In Summary

Votepower: Mr Ruto knows that he sits atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes

The Kenyan state does not do well without a “villain”. The colonialists had Dedan Kimathi. Mzee Jomo Kenyatta was dogged by J.M. Kariuki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. President Daniel arap Moi was harassed by many opponents among them Raila Odinga, Paul Muite, Willy Mutunga, and an army of Young Turks.

President Mwai Kibaki had to contend with Mr Odinga until the Constitution brought them together.

But Mr Odinga, the long-term opposition doyen, is now an “insider”.

My crystal ball tells me that Higher Education minister William Ruto is Kenya’s next “villain”. He is the next anti-Raila “Raila”.

Give the devil his due. Except Mr Odinga and Githugu MP Martha Karua, none of those seeking the presidency has more guts than Mr Ruto.

He may have an edge over the other two. He is cold-hearted and utterly sure of himself.

Unlike Mr Odinga and Ms Karua, Mr Ruto cannot be accused of being a democrat. He has spent his adult life subverting the democratic project.

But he cloaks himself in the language of democracy better than any of his opponents.

He has more oomph than Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. He will be a major player in 2012.

The run for State House is not for the faint-hearted, or the weak-kneed. One must have a killer’s instinct.

Or, like President Kibaki and Nikita Khrushchev, the late Soviet leader, be supremely cunning. Unlike his competitors, Mr Ruto is both cunning and ruthless.

He is a rare combination of Mr Kibaki and Mr Khrushchev. It helps to be a spiritual or religious zealot. Mr Khrushchev was a sworn atheist, while Mr Kibaki is a devout Catholic. Mr Ruto is a religious Christian fundamentalist, a faith he shares with Mr Musyoka.

But unlike Mr Musyoka, Mr Ruto treats religion as his servant, not master. Everything starts and ends with Mr Ruto. He is totally self-absorbed.

Mr Ruto is the alpha and omega of his universe. This dedication to self -- the “I, me, and myself” philosophy -- is the hallmark of highly successful politicians. It is the “it” that separates mere mortals from the “also-rans”.

I have concluded that Mr Ruto possesses the “it”. I had been reluctant to do so because Mr Ruto is obnoxious. Even when he makes a brilliant point, I want to disagree with him because of the smirk on his face. He is not endearing. Nor is he cuddly.

But by dint of sheer persistence, he has developed a cult following. There are “Ruto-nuts” – fanatics – who would do anything for the man. Only Mr Odinga outranks him in the number of Kenyans who would follow him off a cliff.

My point is that Mr Ruto is not of the “middling” sort. He has a messianic complex born of service to self and to Jesus. He can go toe to toe, mano-a-mano, with the best of them.

He politically vanquished former President Daniel arap Moi and forced the former head of state to follow him among the Kalenjin.

That was a tall order given Mr Moi’s lore among the Kalenjin and his enormous wealth.

This was an amazing feat by Mr Ruto when you consider that the entire Kalenjin elite – including himself – are Mr Moi’s handiwork.
Without Mr Moi, the entire Kalenjin elite would not exist. But Mr Ruto bid his time and, like a cobra, struck Mr Moi at the right time.

He exploited Mr Moi’s coziness to President Kibaki and the Kikuyu elite to discredit him among the Kalenjin.

In 2007, Mr Ruto saw his opening and threw his weight behind Mr Odinga and ODM. This is how he “politically finished” Mr Moi and his sons.

No sooner had Mr Ruto buried Mr Moi than he turned his sword on Mr Odinga.

He knows that he sits comfortably atop a treasure trove of Kalenjin votes. Mr Ruto believes that it was Kalenjin votes and blood that brought Mr Odinga within a whisker of State House.

But Mr Odinga is having none of it, and has called Mr Ruto’s bluff. Not to be outflanked, Mr Ruto has courted Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta to form the KKK alliance.

Given Kenya’s tribal arithmetic, Mr Ruto believes that one of the KKK trio – and not Mr Odinga – will end up in State House in 2012.
Is Mr Ruto right, or is he hallucinating? I do not believe that Mr Ruto is completely in “la la” land.

We know that a solid KKK bloc would be nearly impossible to beat at the polls. The only question is who the bloc’s flag bearer would be. Mr Kenyatta is out because a Kikuyu is not going to sell in 2012.

This pits Mr Musyoka against Mr Ruto. Of the two, I like Mr Ruto’s chances. This is why. Mr Ruto is more likely to cut a deal with Mr Kenyatta as his running mate because of the size of the Kikuyu vote. Mr Ruto can promise the Kikuyu peace in the Rift Valley if Mr Kenyatta backs him.

Both he and Mr Kenyatta may find solidarity because Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, may come calling. Misery loves company.

Mr Musyoka is going to be the odd man out. He could join the Ruto-Kenyatta bandwagon, go it alone, or go back to Mr Odinga. Mr Ruto played kingmaker to Mr Odinga in 2007.

But he did so with an eye for the top seat, not to become a perpetual kingmaker. That’s why he may go for the whole kit and caboodle in 2012.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC

Phil,

People follow power or the illusion of power. Moi didn't have it in 2002 as he was stepping down and 2007 as he was a has-been. Ruto had it in 2007 by following Raila and he has it now with the promise of running for PORK in 2012.

They'll follow him, don't worry. You say, "BRING IT ON." I say, "Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it."

Kalonzo seems to be jumping around like a headless chicken begging for accommodation from one party to another. Even if he was to join ODM- which is not too far fetched since he's a flip flopper, I doubt he would last long in there with his crazy demands for himself and his huge Kamba entourage. There would be complete meltdown if he jumped the queue and was made Raila's running mate. Ngilu would quickly go the opposite way towards TNA, I'm sure she's watching the night meetings keenly. Kalonzo needs ODM more than they need him, perhaps he's just throwing tantrum to attract TNA's attention!

Kamale and Rais,

I agree that the departure of Kalonzo leaves Ngilu as the head of the Uhuruto coalition in Ukambani, that is the end of the story. But like Rais, I just do not see how Ngilu can bring these guys even as little as 200k votes from Ukambani.

Having said that though, I understand that Kalonzo's demands could not be accommodated anywhere in the coalition, more reason why he had to go. Uhuruto were left with no choice but to replace him even if only for PR purposes, thats where Ngilu and her sidekick Kiema Kilonzo come in. Methink Uhuruto have done their calculations without factoring in the Ukambani vote and are comfortable with what they are seeing. Although Ruto seems to have accepted that outcome reluctantly. .

Reading that article you can just see the reporter with a WTF look on her face...like most of us but their are many reasons for such a ticket to actually materialize the real problem is apathy...ultimately most people don’t care & those who do in a political sense, those who actually go and register for elections & vote are very few (percentage wise)...and mainly concentrated between the GEMA/Kalenjin/Kamba/Luo communities...

If actual votes matched the census proportionally (like most of the rest of the world) you would see a very different picture...the politicians obviously know this and do whatever they want...

Uhuruto are already in you would be deluded to think otherwise...only the Courts/Kibaki can stop them not the ballot...

The strangest of them all are the ODMers still hanging on the ICC to win it!

Besides, this 'achicha' thing is only on the internet. Hapa mashinani there is nothing like that. In fact people are eagerly awaiting for the signing of the coalition instrument between their leader Ruto and TNA.

One cannot help but notice the worry that an Uhuruto coalition brings.

To counter it, it has been labeled a tribal alliance or and alliance of criminals amongst many names.

The protagonist here is William Ruto.

Now tell me if the Kalenjins would have been deemed lost had the so called Elders of Eldoret and Nakuru convinced Ruto to team up with Raila which was the main aim of the meetings?

Would Kalenjins be the dumb idiots they are being suggested to be for teaming up with Uhuru if they were say teaming up with ODM?

Merkeju,

I just took your check to the bank but it bounced vibaya sana with costs. Now, will you pay the costs? You see ndugu, the problem with you guys is that, you are sharing with us your wishes as if they were a reality.

This is what we know my friend, Kalenjins have no problem with Uhuru, they have voted for him to a man before. I am yet to see anything indicating that this position had changed. In 2007 the Kalenjins had beef with Kibaki the man for what they perceived as his targeting them and their interests. In Raila they saw a man whom they thought would well represent them in standing to Kibaki. But he let them down, his betrayal of the community was more painful than Kibakis because unlike Kibaki, they had invested all their worldly possessions in Raila.

Today, the Kalenjins have no beef with any other candidate out there but Raila and no better candidate to stand to him than Uhuru. Of course they would have loved to have their own (read Ruto) do it, but they know this is a game that needs more than one's wishes. In short today's Raila is yesterdays Kibaki and todays Uhuru is yesterdays Raila. So go figure before you start believing in your own wishes.

Hassan's explanation is the most complete form of absolute nonsense. If indeed the multiplier issue was an error in the programming, there's no way on earth (and heaven) it could not have been caught in testing. Very worst case scenario, it would have been caught at the arrival of the very first transmission... unless of course we are dealing with the greatest assembly of bumbling idiots at the IEBC. They actually sat there for over a day; tallying over 50% of the vote... and no one noticed. Look, there is no shame in accepting the systems were hacked. It happens all the time even in the US. Just Google.

Likely the hackers were instructed to screw around with the vote up to a certain limit where their 'winner' would be safe. Unfortunately, their pull-out strategy failed and the World started noticing and making loud noises. They had no option but to crush the entire system especially because in the end it's their boy who would be hurting. End of story, next chapter.

Nowayhaha, I have a hunch that there is more to RR's story about rejected votes but he isn't being totally honest about it. If we are to believe that the electronic system was hacked into, then it is possible that CORD hackers were pushing up the numbers of rejected votes in order to clamour for a runoff later. The whole RR story about his sister & other relatives deliberately spoiling their votes sounds like fiction to me. They would've voted for their man genuinely, but once it became clear he was losing they would've hacked the system to push up the rejected votes in hope of declaring the need for a rerun. We are virtually the same level we were with the electronic vote (UK 2.4m to Raila's 1.9m) & yet the rejected votes have plummeted to just above 30k once the actual Form 36's signed off on by ALL agents has been used. Very interesting......

Folks, go easy on RR. The fact is anyone who has access to data that the parties have collated from the various counties will know that this election has already been won (or lost depending on which side you support). IEBC is taking its sweet time to unleash the inevitable lest people end up in hospital wards from the shock. Let RR vent. Better online than on the streets ;D ;D ;D ;D

source?