emali
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Post by emali on Jan 30, 2012 20:46:15 GMT 3
I agree with Nok regarding equating Mudavadi to every other president we have had in the past being dull or rather never the front runner going into an election but Mudavadi has to show some legitimate interest and look like he wants it by actively campaigning, as it stands now does he even have the Luhya vote? He seems very lethargic and doesn’t even seem to believe in himself. If Raila decided to be his deputy and toshad him then maybe but otherwise I just don’t see it working for him.
As for RAO it’s all because of the perceived fear that he can’t be trusted & by that I mean by the elite who have made their money by plundering state resources since independence. Kenya is unlike other African countries where the incumbent president protects their predecessors; they don’t send him to court to pay for past crimes.
I even remember during the last election hearing from some knowledgeable non-kikuyu old lady friend when Raila was up by 1 million votes that he would not ‘win’ it & sure enough she was right on the money.
Look at the Ruto situation, why did they fallout? I don’t know but Ruto is an ‘establishment’ person the kind to protect old stolen money...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 28, 2012 2:58:07 GMT 3
After 2007 with Kibaki anything is possible, his actions especially since the ICC trial became a reality suggest YES he might be planning on a snap election. His reasoning may be along these lines...
1. Naivasha— use Ruto to rubber stamp PNU’s presidential system & weaken the counties
2. NO campaign-Ruto tests the electorate by leading the campaign against the constitution (which he played a big part in creating & molesting) and comes away with a 30% vote essentially proving he can sell water to a whale.
3. Appoint Muigai AG to legalize criminality and go to war with Al Shabbab to keep the military busy.
4. Uhuruto stoke up ethnic tensions and proclaim they will run for the presidency come rain or sun.
5. Call a snap election
6.”The reason there was so much ‘bad press’ in 2007 was because the Kalenjin warriors were not part of the plan. This time they are with us we can focus on Kisumu and blame everything on Raila”
7. Uhuruto sworn in 2013
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 27, 2012 23:28:12 GMT 3
I have no reason to doubt what Njamba is saying. And I am sure other communites in similar conditions and circumstances would act more or less in the same way. I don't think Raila has done anything bad to the Kikuyu as a community -- but unfortunately he has been presented as their enemy for no apparent reason. Although, that tag will not be easy to remove I believe Raila should not writeoff Central because he can still win the presidency without Central vote, and if sucessful he must serve all regardless of tribe or region. I don't think fronting Saitoti will be of much help because could end up perpertuating the idea that it is only a Kikuyu who can protect Kikuyus, which in the long run will alienate them even more from the rest of the other communities in the country. K Njamba is only revealing the common/shared believe among the Kikuyus. As unfortunate as it might sound, that is the reality on the ground. We need to live with it. You'll be surprised at how some people hate Raila with a passion. There is already talk of fronting Saitoti if Uhuru was not to stand. Raila's problem with the Gikuyu is that he does not acknowledge 'kenya ina wenyewe' ...Raila is not part of the 'establishment' he can't be trusted it's all built on fear...all starting with KPU & Jaramogi
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 27, 2012 19:21:03 GMT 3
... and here Ahmednasir Abdullahi calls it as it is. Like many of us, he believes that ICC has always been there to serve politicians of their liking: I kept on saying the same thing over and over again but the cheerleaders have been consistent calling for blood. Everyone knows it and no one can pretend to be in doubt! The Kenyan case at the ICC is a political case with both local and international puppet masters calling the shots! Every case involving a ‘high ranking’ non-European held in what for all intents and purposes is a ‘political court’ will most likely be political no earth shuttering revelation here. Just like the Taylor case, he was railroaded by ECOWAS/AU and laid on a plate for the international community but what can he do? Face the music...no CIA aided jailbreak in the near future part II
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 26, 2012 16:07:54 GMT 3
What a shock! and here I was saying Uhuru, Muthaura, Kibaki ~#@#!....
This is a good day...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 26, 2012 16:01:08 GMT 3
As has been opined by others & recently by Hassan Omar of KHRC I believe that only the Gikuyu can save Kenya but I’m not an idealist to believe it will happen. We can postulate about who will get this region & who won’t but in this hopefully clean democracy its ultimately about the numbers.GEMA have the numbers and frankly as someone who has travelled in every corner of this country I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gikuyu numbers were understated in the last census because my eyes don’t lie.
I will give Kibaki credit for the new constitution but that is where it ends especially when ‘distinguished’ professionals like Githu Muigai are dancing to his self serving tune. What I would have wanted the constitution to provide was a one term six year presidency rotating between the main six to eight largest tribes. A rotating presidency would have significantly reduced ethnic tensions, completely eradicated the ‘mta-do’ culture & made us focus on more important things like the economy instead of the 24 hour political barrage we are constantly force fed with.
Frankly what Kenyatta started and Moi continued cannot be cured in a generation and Kibaki seems to be on his way to outdoing both of them combined. The reality is everyone wants to eat and I understand the Kamales and the Njungunajohns when they point out that Raila or the anti-establishment forces are not any better or even regarding Uhuru’s fate at the I.C.C...Gikuyus were being killed in Rift Valley what were their leaders supposed to do?
Our politics is rotten and we are all victims and it will eventually cannibalize the nation and I’m not being melodramatic especially when you see young people in their twenties and thirties spewing tribal hatred worse than the old tribal chieftains of years past . As for the next elections I don’t know who will win but I do know that virtually all the countries recourses will be drained by the election, we will be held hostage by the anticipation and I might not be free to travel to some parts of the country.
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 25, 2012 20:26:37 GMT 3
Job as you have mentioned….OTP-11 witness is a woman, she has to be one tough lady to face up to the establishment, she has to be someone with conviction, a personal grudge and nothing to lose well I have my theory on who that may be.
Ross Kemp had a very good documentary on Mungiki…and they spoke freely to him unlike anything you will see in our own media, take a look and judge for yourselves….at the 2.00 minute mark this lady Florence sure does fit the bill… Gud lawd!!!!! emali this underworld of BOSS Uhuru's Mungiki is indeed as scary as it gets. How does one shed off history of longstanding affiliation with such passionate and hardcore criminals? Whoa! Indeed what a scary bunch...shows you really what Uhuru is all about to associate with them because they live by their own code...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 25, 2012 20:06:36 GMT 3
Job as you have mentioned….OTP-11 witness is a woman, she has to be one tough lady to face up to the establishment, she has to be someone with conviction, a personal grudge and nothing to lose well I have my theory on who that may be.
Ross Kemp had a very good documentary on Mungiki…and they spoke freely to him unlike anything you will see in our own media, take a look and judge for yourselves….at the 2.00 minute mark this lady Florence sure does fit the bill…
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emali
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Post by emali on Jan 25, 2012 10:28:33 GMT 3
Very good thread and excellent analysis Job, this kind of analysis should be inundating our print & media houses instead of Githu Muigai’s obfuscations and our lame MP’s pathetic attempts at solidarity.
Kibaki, Muthaura and Uhuru are not going to escape this especially Uhuru since the other two will retire by early next year. How is Uhuru going to manage a campaign under such ‘allegations’? And I use the term loosely because after witnessing Kibaki’s administration and the general public supposition of how events unfolded in Nakuru/Naivasha, the Judges summation of events look pretty credible.
The trial will bring all this to bear and our politics and media will not be able to hide it like they have up to this point. Initially I doubted whether these Mungiki witnesses would stand up to scrutiny or for that matter make it to trial alive, even Maina Njenga seems to be constantly living in fear but it seems they will make it & if they do and testify Uhuru will at best come out like Saitoti claiming to be a Maasai (with a very bleak political future) or at worst like O.J. Simpson (he didn’t do it right?) and that is if he is found innocent....
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emali
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Post by emali on Nov 16, 2011 10:18:05 GMT 3
Kibaki has been a disappointment...ultimately he falls behind Kenyatta & Moi in the most important area of leadership...he was/is just not a leader and I shudder to think how we would be today if not for the coalition government, I don’t think even if Bifwoli Wakoli was the PORK you would have seen a couple of Russian thugs being made Assistant commissioners of police .
Economically he has done ‘well’ given that he is an economist but not well enough he did however preside over a new constitution ...he was given the Keys and a blank check & he failed miserably...his biggest failure was that everyone seemed to believe he would make us better but the only thing he did was reinforce stereotypes & make some very rich while most remained poorer...
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emali
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Post by emali on Nov 9, 2011 8:32:56 GMT 3
Is it me or this documentary is tiresome. The guy has nice and important story but very poorly presented. You get tired and bored halfway. The story doesnt flow. He jumps here and there. So you are more concerned with the production of show? not the content? These drug dealers have too much power,it had to take the US govt to 'curtail' Mwau...even then who knows what they are up to right now...I see parallels with Colombia which led to Escobar rivaling his own government for power & Influence leading to their inevitable confrontation....Colombia is just beginning to recover 20 years later... Good show...this drugs issue needs to be given extensive coverage...only then will the government stop denying it exists...
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emali
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Post by emali on Nov 3, 2011 15:15:40 GMT 3
I haven’t followed Obama much in the last year but it seems like he hasn’t even come close to what most expected or what he promised, some even equate him to Dubya...I wont be surprised if he is not re-elected but he still has time on his side one year is a very long time...
I don’t think whoever comes in next will make much of a difference either...the U.S. seems to be on a downward trend in most areas not just economically...and their politics doesn't help, getting a consensus on any issue is very difficult....republicans & democrats are as far apart as they have ever been not to mention those 'special interest groups'...
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emali
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Post by emali on Nov 3, 2011 14:45:57 GMT 3
Looks like OO shares alot with pal Miguna Miguna...a monopoly on 'good ideas'....Jukwaa is a nice board but it looks like OO is getting tired with it's success...what next? a new thread about Miguna's expert opinion on Kenyan men's monoploy in world Marathons? or perharps a quote of this post by OO along the lines of 'vanish peon we Socialists have no time for your ilk...' Emali:The biggest refutation of the claims above is your very own posting.What is Miguna's name doing in this thread? Keep to the topic. I smile when I hear you talk of Jukwaa's success. Onyango Oloo NairobiReally? I was that off topic...the way I see it is you who took this topic to left field, my addition of Miguna’s name was just keeping with the theme around this parts after all it’s not like Kwendo Opanga’s opinions are given the pied piper of Hamlin treatment on this board... Yes you can smile...Jukwaa is a great board... Back on topic to quote RAO in today’s Nation... ‘This is war. It is not like 10-meter or 10 kilometre race. We will fight until the enemy is defeated’
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emali
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Post by emali on Nov 2, 2011 13:10:32 GMT 3
Looks like OO shares alot with pal Miguna Miguna...a monopoly on 'good ideas'....Jukwaa is a nice board but it looks like OO is getting tired with it's success...what next? a new thread about Miguna's expert opinion on Kenyan men's monoploy in world Marathons? or perharps a quote of this post by OO along the lines of 'vanish peon we Socialists have no time for your ilk...'
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emali
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Post by emali on Oct 28, 2011 19:36:00 GMT 3
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emali
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Post by emali on Oct 26, 2011 21:04:40 GMT 3
Kamale, You are actually mourning Gaddafi? Actually Yes. For no other reason but how he met his death. That is unacceptable to me. I feel the same way...and besides what will the outcome be? democracy galore for Libya? the NTC might even be worse...and the price of oil will hit an all time low in 6 months & the 130 billion held outside Libya will somehow be used for 'reconstruction'....with NATO companies winning all the contracts.....
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emali
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Post by emali on Oct 26, 2011 20:58:43 GMT 3
The way the government is acting it’s like we are fighting a covert war in Somalia! Kibaki is acting like its business as usuall, we only send 2000-4000 troops and we are hardly getting any information about what’s going on other than snippets here and there.
I obviously don’t think the reasons for this war are just mainly because Kibaki’s history speaks of hubris and corruption. The army could be out of Somalia in two months while Kibaki & his cronies will be building Malls for the next 10 years but still they left us with little to no options.
I don’t believe Al shabbab is what it’s being blown out to be some sort of Al Qaeda offshoot growing by the day... a clear and present danger to Kenya’s internal security. Somalia has been a lawless state for 20 years with Islam its main religion it was inevitable a group of Bandits would use religion as a guise to claim control/authority given the notoriety Osama and Al Qaeda garnered in years past. Somali’s are a very entrepreneurial people, sharia law will not work there ultimately they would have lost especially with very little or no funding by their benefactors. I see this war as a NATO scorched earth policy to obliterate what’s left of it. They might be ‘faceless’ but I’m under no illusions they are well known to the Americans who have been monitoring them for years...
I keep hearing about the fact that no one has beaten the Somalis in war? Black hawk down...e.t.c .It’s not like we are going in there to uproot the TFG or some other clan based political faction.Al Shababs ideology is based on Religion something Somali’s have never based their politics on, Al Shabab are not the Ayatollah led revolution of Iran they are bunch of uncouth bandits hated across Somalia with no real backing outside Somalia other than ‘businessmen’ in Kenya & a few scattered all over the world who are ‘known’. I’m not saying it will be easy or they can wiped out but I think they can be severely weakened which I think is the goal of this invasion.
There has been no confirmation that the kidnappings were Al shabaab operations but does it really matter? The kidnappings & Piracy are thriving unabated and would have continued something had to be done...police the borders better? That’s not practical given the border is close to 1600Km long. War is an ugly thing but it’s not like we have committed 40,000 troops there, it’s only a couple of thousand with a specific mission which will not last more than a few months and if it does General Kibaki will live up to his moniker & bail out.
The issue of insecurity that we are all concerned about is a necessary evil.Al-Shabaabs response to the invasion is to hurl some grenades in pubs & crowded places, is that the sign of a well oiled military outfit? I do not want to tempt fate but they are not led by an Abu Nidal seasoned terrorist they are infantile in comparison. Their response to Uganda’s troops in their country was to bomb a restaurant & nothing since yet Ugandans chased them out of Mogadishu and are still in Somalia hounding them.
If we can severely weaken them & curtail the Piracy and Banditry it will be mission accomplished. It might even be the impetus that leads to a governable Somalia if what O.O claims is the real reason behind this invasion...it also doesn’t hurt that security in Nairobi is much better...Car Jackers & ATM bandits are on leave...
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emali
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Post by emali on Sept 23, 2011 4:57:56 GMT 3
This thread reflects Tuju’s chances of becoming PORK come 2012…One person claiming he is the right candidate and everyone else amused that he is actually serious…
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emali
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Post by emali on Sept 22, 2011 21:25:11 GMT 3
The way the OTP is prosecuting this case it’s like its already assumed Ali/Muthaura/Uhuru are going to full trial as the bulk of their case rests on witnesses who can’t testify at this stage.
All this info on Statehouse and Mungiki can only be substantiated with witnesses just like the first case it’s a lot of innuendo’s & allegations…where is the meat and bones? Something we haven’t heard before…though if the witnesses are credible it is going to be a long time in jail for these three but I find it hard to believe that a bunch of Mungiki fella’s sold out to the OTP…
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emali
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Post by emali on Sept 8, 2011 13:47:32 GMT 3
iam with kasuku on this lest we forgot. If the Ocampo six are innocent then somebody somewhere must be guilty.ICC must be reminded by this pictures that indeed kenyans want justice. i have noticed fellows here rubbing their hands in glee as they insinuate that ocampos evidence is being torn into pieces citizen tv in the forefront. theses pictures are here to remind them that indeed something happened and that it is a tragedy to hope that this cases are dismissed, there will be nothing to celebrate over.Zilch. So sister kasuku just post more if you happen to have more of these. where is titchaz? This statement is Mutually exclusive…if anyone knows the details and execution of behind the PEV & other previous ‘clashes’ in RV it’s Ruto afterall his previous boosters Moi/Biwott were literally out of the loop post 2002…the PNU side is the central government…events which seemingly everyone in Kenya is aware of…the Mungiki side… This is all IMO obviously but if the ICC can’t rope these guys in I can’t see how we will be able to move forward…
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emali
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Post by emali on Sept 7, 2011 0:55:52 GMT 3
I haven’t seen anything so far that implicates Ruto, Kosgey or Sang. What I find interesting is the ICC not Kibera Law Courts seems unable to make the case stick! What exactly has Ocampo being doing for all this time, what is it now three years…so we have a ‘network’ we have generals in charge, we have distribution of weapons all being orchestrated by Ruto/Kosgey/Sang…suspects who can’t even brief their own witnesses properly…these three principally drove the PEV? Based on the evidence I just don’t see it…
The ‘clashes’ began with Moi with only the 2002 multiparty election being spared the mayhem…I thought since Ruto/Kosgey have been around since 1992 there might be some evidence implicating them since they were part of Moi’s Cabal, how could the violence be ‘spontaneous’ when it only happened during election time? Do the Kalenjin resent ‘outsiders’ & hold it in till election time and just unleash hell like automatons? Maybe, I don’t know but that is the only explanation I can give.
Maybe Ocampo/ICC were looking at the PEV like a western crime like those RICO cases used in the US to rope in mobsters…there is no paper trail for PEV so they figured the voluminous commission reports & a few witnesses will suffice… they were wrong.
I thought this ICC case would really get to the heart of the PEV & Implicate those responsible from Moi to Ruto but its turning out to be a sham…
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emali
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Post by emali on Jul 25, 2011 10:11:33 GMT 3
Can you Imagine Miguna as a manager? Well let’s just say he will be very ‘successful’ because all his staff will have quit! Obviously Miguna is not a manager & doesn’t need to be one but just like myself most will end up talking about anything but the main point of his articles ,just like above he seems more interested in belittling Isaac on irrelevant stuff & only hitting the nail on the head at the end when really most readers would have already tuned out (the impartial ones i.e.)…
Miguna mostly is a good read but more often than not he is either unnecessarily blowing up his credentials or too vindictive…for someone who is supposed to be the PM’s advisor his ‘opinion’ will always reflect on the PM no matter how many disclaimers he puts up.
Miguna though would make an excellent TV host…just like he did in Kagwanja it will be a politicians nightmare to show up.
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emali
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Post by emali on Jul 19, 2011 16:51:52 GMT 3
Without trying to demean the interest many people have, I am frankly surprised at the prioritisation of issues by the Kenyan politician! The tragedy of the power failures at JKIA twice in two days would have been eliciting the urgent attention of parliament than a mundane thing as delay in printing a law especially when the person holding the blame should be the AG for not following up on the printing of the Act after assent by Kibaki kamalet. Why do you always choose the indefensible stupid-very stupid-path in your attempts to be on the non-reformist side? "You want free speech? Let's see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, who's standing center stage and advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours."...granted that line is from a movie but its great...I too have been sucked in by Kamalet but I still strive to live by that quote...
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emali
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Post by emali on Jul 19, 2011 16:37:52 GMT 3
Folks,There is one thing these amigos have not factored in their fantasy. Ruto apparently thinks he can have twenty running mates and just keep lying to everybody. But here is the big problem. Assuming that the PNU triplets of Uhuru, Kalonzo and Ruto ran in the presidential elections which they need to keep their supporters, they each have to choose running mates as Deputy Presidents in their ticket. Assuming that no ticket gets the 50% plus the we go to a run-off. In the run-off the two leading candidates will run with the same running mates they had before. The law does not allow any candidate to switch their running mates after round one of the elections. So assume Uhuru runs with Eugene as his running mate, Ruto with Mwakwere and Kalonzo with Kaparo and Uhuru comes second with Eugene then that is the ticket that will face Raila and his running mate. So how will the other gang members be involved? What can Uhuru offer them? How will their supporters move in the run-off. That is just the tip of the iceberg. Then we have the ICC case. In reality Raila's chances are even better with all the gang of 7 members available. The katiba has really complicated things for a lot of people. They still don't get it. I believe the 2012 election will be like the 1992 election with Raila=Moi,I just cannot see this gang up against Raila strategy working, they will ultimately disintegrate. The only other scenario I see is regarding Ruto & Uhuru if they survive the Hague & either one comes top two & one backs the other that is a sure win but it’s becoming obvious(duh!) that neither ‘community’ wants to back the other & even if they do it won’t be unilateral & the turnout won’t equal the first vote, the after all he isn’t ‘one’ of us mentality… Raila is in pole position for now but Ruto has shown he is energetic and resourceful as we saw prior to the Hague when he led a very antagonistic campaign that Raila was pulled into…should the election campaign go that route then Raila will need to be very careful but ultimately it’s his election to lose. What would really be Interesting is if both Uhuru & Ruto are convicted or prevented to run by the ICC…
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emali
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Post by emali on Jul 19, 2011 7:59:52 GMT 3
Nice job Mwalimumkuu you seem to have seen through Marende's actions a long time ago...
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